Project Scheduling based on Uncertain Activity Times

Will be Calculating expected times

Calculate variances
Calculate probability of completion of projects
Calculate the project completion time given probability

Another step is based on the table given

Step 1. Identify the activities

Step 2. Determine activity relationships (immediate predecessors of each activity)

Step 3. Estimate activity completion times and costs

To calculate the expected time using the formula

t = a + 4m +b
6

Activity A is equals to 4 + 4(6) + 14 is equals to 7 we do the same to the next activity

6

Using the given activity times and predecessors we completed the project network on
finding the critical path on how to identify the activity time, expected earliest time the
activity can start, earliest finish time, latest start time and latest finish time without
extending the minimum completion time of the project. Starting from the activity A,B C
needed A to be completed before it can start D needs both A and B before it get started E
needs D, F needs C and E and G depends on E since F and G has no successors it goes to
finish.

A ES EF
t LS LF

Using the critical path of B-D-E-F and the project completion time is 32 weeks

Variance = [ ( Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6 ] 2

The variance formula in computing the activity variance is b minus a divided by 6

squared. We will only focus on the critical path variances thus for B is 2.78, D 1.78, E
2.78 and F is 1 adding this gives us the project variance of 8.33 square with the standard
deviation of 2.867 or about 3 weeks

With our mean of 32 and standard deviation of 2.867 we can now determine to answer
the question on how to determine the probability that project will be completed in
 - less 35 weeks
- more than 31 weeks
- between 31 and 35 weeks
- in less than 31 or more than 35 weeks

using the formula:

x – mean of 32 over the standard deviation

in less than 35 weeks we got 0.8508 or 85% probability that it will be completed, in more
than 31 weeks 0.6368 or 63.68% in between 31 and 35 weeks that gives 0.4876 and in
less than 31 or more than 35 weeks 0.5124

If we want a 90% probability of completing the project on time when should we begin
using the formula we got 35.7 which means we must begin 36 weeks earlier in order to be
completed on time with 90% probability

Remember from statistics that if we know the mean (expected project completion time)
and the standard deviation from a Normal Distribution, we can describe the data
with The Empirical Rule:

68% of Data is within: Mean +/- 1 Std Dev =

97 + 1 (3) = 94, 100

95% of Data is Within: Mean +/- 2 Std Dev =

97 + 2 (3) = 91, 103

100% of Data is Within: Mean +/- 3 Std Dev =

97 + 3 (3) = 88, 106

This is very valuable information for the project manager. Data in this case means
expected project completion times. The project manager can expect most projects with
these activity times will be completed within 91 to 103 weeks (95%) - that is good
information for planning and budgeting purposes. The 88 to 106 range can be used to
detect an "outlier" project completion time. If a project takes more than 106 weeks,
something out of the ordinary or unexpected happened.