2.4 Key Conclusions Figure 17.

Modern Protein Market Share

100%
Our analysis takes into account the various waves of disruption (apart from form
90%
factor) and the virtuous and vicious cycles that we describe in the previous section
80%

Percentage of Market
and analyzes their impact on the market. We model three separate adoption curves
70%
for supply (when are products available and how quickly production can scale),
60%
demand (how quickly consumers will buy these products) and regulation (when these
50%
products will be allowed) for each of the markets. The combination of these gives us
40%
our central adoption case and the resulting number of cows reflected in Figures 16
and 17 below. 30%
20%
We forecast the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50% by 2030,
10%
by which time modern proteins will have 75% of the cow-based protein
0%
market. By 2035, the number of cows will have fallen by 75%.

201

201

202

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202

202

202

202

202

202

202

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203
8

7
4

5
3
0

0
Cow-based Protein Modern Protein
Figure 16. Number of Cows in the U.S. Source: RethinkX

100
90
80 2.5 The Disruption of Other
Millions of Cattle

Livestock
70
60
50
We have focused on the disruption of the cow in detail because, of all the food
40
production systems, it is the most inefficient (and hence highest cost) with the most
30
profound impact on humanity. But the same technologies disrupting cattle farming
20
and its byproducts will also disrupt other livestock, such as pigs, chicken, and fish.
10
While there are differences in relative efficiencies, the step-change improvement in
0 cost and capability of modern production methods means that none of these markets
201

201

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

202

203

will survive intact.

8

7
4

5
3
0

Total Cattle Beef Cattle Dairy Cows Research, development, and technological advancement in one species or product
Source: RethinkX
category will improve the underlying technologies and accelerate the disruption
across all others. Because of its Food-as-Software capabilities, a company that
makes modern burgers can easily make modern pork, chicken, or fish. The
disruption process will be accelerated even further by improvements made to these
technologies in the production of novel materials outside the food industry.

Food&Agriculture 37