Environmental Risk Assessment Model on
Dangerous Goods During Transportation
Mou Ruifang
College of Traffic and Transportation
Southwest Jiaotong University
Chengdu, China
mrfswjtu@126.com
Abstract—Transportation of dangerous goods is an important
part in logistics system. Because of the characteristics of high-
risk, the risk management of transport of dangerous goods are
put more attention at home and abroad. The analysis on
transportation risk of dangerous goods is at macro level, the
study on risk is not investigated in nature. This paper is to
discuss the environmental risk during dangerous goods
transportation by using systems analysis methods. An assessment
model and procedures have been put forward based on the
environmental factors, rate of transport accidents, and the
impact degree on the environment. The emphases are analyzed
on the pollutants diffusion and harm. Finally the indices have
been proposed to analyze the environmental risk in the course of
dangerous goods transportation.
Keywords-dangerous goods; transporation; environmental risk;
assessment model
I. PREFACE
The storage, using and production of hazardous chemicals
are involved in the transportation. According to statistics, Wu
Zongzhi and Sun Meng (2006) show more than 95% of
hazardous chemicals are transported between different places,
such as the annual flow volume of liquid ammonia liquid
reaches over 80 tons and the volume of chlorine is to 170
million tons, of which 80% is transported by road. Statistics
show that transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals
accounted for 30% to 40% of the total accidents. The accident
consequences of hazardous chemicals transportation not only
resulted in great damages to people's lives and properties, but
also brought about great environmental pollution as well as
public security problems. For instance in April 2004, a heavy
tank-type truck loaded 18 tons of formaldehyde took place a
serious accident due to the fracture of truck beam. The site of
accident occurred is located in the Nanping city where the
No.205 National highway crosses and closed to the source of
drinking water of Nanping City. The distance between accident
scene and the water intake is about 200m. Accident resulted in
formaldehyde leakage. The leaked formaldehyde was running
down the ditch of roadside to the river via culvert. The
measured contents of formaldehyde in ground water are more
than 50 mg / L, exceeding 55 times of the national standard
value. The drinking water source, water plant, sedimentation
tanks, raw water and the downstream surface water resulted in
serious pollution. The stop time to supply water is 33 hours.
The formaldehyde content of air is up to 2185 mg/m3.
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Since 1970s, many countries and international
organizations establish a series of risk-management
procedures, such as disaster research, risk analysis and
emergency management. The management of environmental
risk on transportation in China is in the infancy stage. The
focuses on risk study of transportation are concentrated in the
risk analysis and assessment. List G F and Mirchandani P B
(1991) studied the routing/scheduling and facility location
during dangerous goods transportation. Erhan Erkut and Vedat
Verter (1998) set up a model to simulate the risk of dangerous
goods. Wu Zongzhi, Duo Yingquan, Liu Mao, et al (2004) put
forward some indices to analyze the risk of dangerous goods.
Ren Changxing and Wu Zongzhi (2006) studied the routing
optimization problems during transportation. Xu Zeming (2005)
examined into on environmental risk of accidents in
transporting poisonous chemicals on highway. Weng Ping
(2000) analyzed the environmental risk during production by
diffusion theory. Yang Manhong and Piao Zhongxuan (1999)
studied the environmental risk in transporting dangerous
chemicals on highway. In their paper an analytical model has
been proposed to predict the rate of accidents. Wang Fei and
Wang Donghua (1995) investigated the probabilities of traffic
accidents on environmental risk. From the risk analysis
(including environmental risk) mentioned above, the common
viewpoints on risk are related to the macro risk analysis. The
accident consequences including the compact scope and its
severities are little concerned. The paper proposes a procedure
and a model to analyze the environmental consequences of
accidents on the basis of the environmental elements, such as
water element, atmosphere element and soil element.
II. THEORETICAL BASIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
ASSESSMENT
According to the definition of risk, the appropriate
environmental risk (ER) can be expressed as the unexpected
degree of harm on the environment. It is defined as the product
of the accident probability P (degree of risk) and environmental
consequences of the accident, with the characterization of R.
R [Harm/Unit time] =
P [Accident/Unit time] ×C [Harm/Accident] . (1)
Generally speaking, environmental Risk Assessment
(ERA), refers to the risk assessment of impacts of human
health, social economics, ecological systems on the hazards,
induced by human activities and some harm(including natural
hazards). ERA means the probability evaluation of hazardous
chemicals (toxic) on human health in a narrow sense.
The procedures developed in this paper can be expressed as
the following steps. The main steps are the scope and analysis
of study area, receptor analysis, risk identification and analysis
of the risk sources, Exposure and hazard analysis and risk
assessment.
These parts can be illustrated in detail as the following.
A. Definition and analysis of the study area
Before evaluating the environmental risk of dangerous
goods transportation, first of all, the zone to be assessed must
be recognized. Based on the purpose of the assessment and the
possible interference and the terminal point, the boundary and
time scopes of the study zone should be limited exactly and
properly. And the social conditions, economic condition and
natural state should be investigated and analyzed.
“Hazard Analysis” is relevant to the exposure analysis. It is
the core of the regional ecological risk assessment. Its
destination is to determine the damage contents of the receptors
and ecosystem on risk sources.
E. Risk assessment
“Risk Assessment” means the assessment of the damaging
contents and the occurring probability of the risk event. It is the
preceding stage of the assessment mentioned above. In this
stage, the results of exposure analysis and hazard analysis
should be combined to calculate the final environmental risk
value on the fundamental of their synthetic effects. Finally the
conclusion should be made according to the assessed risk value.
In addition, the risk assessment should also include the
description about the risk characterization and the uncertainties
in these assessments.
III. CALCULATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
CONSEQUENCE

B. Receptor analysis The impacts of dangerous goods during transportation on

environment mainly embody on environmental elements, i.e.
“Receptor analysis” means the risk which bears the risk. It water, atmospheric, soil and ecological elements. Due to the
refers to the component parts of disadvantage effects of the risk limited paper space, the paper only considers the risk analysis
sources on the ecosystem in risk assessment. The receptors of water, atmospheric and soil elements. The ecological
may be organisms or non-organisms. The receptors in the environment will be discussed in another paper.
environmental risk analysis of dangerous goods during
transportation consist of four aspects, i.e. water environment,
A. consequence calculation
atmospheric environment, soil environment and ecosystem.
During assessing the environmental risk, the factors sensitive to • The diffusion of toxic and harmful substances in
the risk or some key species (population or community), which atmospheric
have an important status in ecosystem must be chosen by According to mass conservation, the diffusion model of
judgment and analysis. The risk of receptors can be inferred or toxic and harmful substances can be expressed as the following,
analyzed or replaced to the system risk in the entire region.
∂C ∂ ⎛ ∂C ⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂C ⎞
+ V ⋅∇C = ⎜kx ⎟ + ⎜k ⎟
C. Risk sources analysis ∂ y ⎜⎝ ∂ y ⎟⎠ (2)
y
∂t ∂x ⎝ ∂x ⎠
“Risk source analysis” refers to identifying and analyzing ∂ ⎛ ∂C ⎞
and measuring the possible interference which have a negative + ⎜kz ⎟ + S (C , x , y , z , t ).
∂z ⎝ ∂z ⎠
effect on the ecological system or its components in the region.
This process can be divided into risk identification and the risk Where;
source description. The risk identification is to find out risk C pollutants concentration;
factors based on the aim of the assessment.
V wind vector;
D. Exposure and hazard analysis S source point;
“Exposure analysis” refers to studying the distribution,
movement of the risk sources and the exposure relationship kx, ky, kz ，the degree vector of pollutants concentration.
between the risk sources and their receptors in the assessment • The diffusion of toxic and harmful substances in soil
region. For instance in ecological risk assessment to an aquatic
ecosystems, exposure analysis is to study the migration, The flow of material mass is caused underground water or
transformation processes when the pollutants seep into the soil particles or their unified action. The dangerous goods in
water. The analytical method is to use the mathematical or soil not only can be soluble in water, but also suspended in
physical models. It is relatively more difficult to analyze the water. It not only can be adsorptive to solid material of soil, but
exposure relationship in the environmental risk assessment of can be in the organic matter as well. It can flow with water and
dangerous goods transportation, because of the spatial soil particles at the same time. In the mass flow of dangerous
characteristics of the risk source and the receptor. The impacts goods in soil, it is important for the dangerous matter to be
of different types and classes will be combined and superposed adsorptive.
so that the relationship between the risk source and the receptor For the steady soil—water flow system, the common
will become more complex. equation of mass flow to describe the dangerous mass flow is
as follow,

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 ∂c ∂ 2c ∂c ∂S . P medium pressure in vessel, Pa;
= D ′ 2 − V0 −β (3)
∂t ∂x ∂x θ∂t P0 environmental pressure, Pa;
g gravity;
Where; h height of liquid level above the cleft, m.
D′ dispersion coefficient (cm2/s); • gas leaking speed
C concentration of chemicals in solution, cm2/s;
V0 average pore flow speed, cm2/s; The gas flow rate is in sonic range (critical flow):
k
β soil bulk density, g/cm3; P0 2
≤ ( ) k +1 . (7)
θ volume water weight, cm3/cm3; P k +1
S concentration of chemicals adsorptive to soil, g/g. The gas flow rate is in the subsonic range (subcritical
• The diffusion of toxic substances in river flow):
k
P0 2
The mass balance equation can be used to set up dangerous > ( ) k −1 . (8)
substance diffusion in river. Here is the model, P k +1
Where;
∂C ∂ 2C ∂ 2C ∂C ∂ C . (4) P medium pressure in vessel, Pa;
= Dx 2
+ Dy − ux − uy
∂t ∂x ∂y 2 ∂x ∂y p0 environmental pressure, Pa;
Where; k gas adiabatic exponent(heat capacity ratio), the ratios
C concentration of some kind of pollutants; of heat capacity at constant pressure Cp and isochoric heat
Dx dispersion coefficient in x coordinate direction; capacity Cv.

Dy dispersion coefficient in y coordinate direction; IV. THE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY OF THE MAXIMUM
CREDIBLE
ux velocity component on x direction;
According to Wu Zongzhi and Sun Meng(2006), the
uy velocity component on y direction. accident types of dangerous goods transportation can be
• The diffusion of toxic substances in lake divided into "the moving accident" and "non-moving
accidents". In the “moving accident”, the accident can be
After time t, as for conservation situation of pollutants, grouped into two categories further, the dangerous chemicals
concentration C (mg/L) can be figure out by mass balance accident induced by traffic accident and dangerous chemicals
equation: accident induced by non-traffic accident respectively. The
W + c pQ p ⎛ W + c pQ p ⎞ former indicates the cause of dangerous chemicals accident is
⎟⎟ exp ⎛⎜ − h t ⎞⎟ . (5)
Q
C= 0 + ⎜⎜ C 0 − 0 due to the traffic accident. The latter means the cause of
Qh ⎝ Qh ⎠ ⎝ V ⎠ dangerous chemicals accident is due to the other factors despite
Where; traffic accident. Assuming the types of accident in dangerous
W0 load quantity of pollutants existing in the lake (except goods transportation to N, such as cars collision, vehicles off-
the one brought by QP) g/d; axis, vessel rupture and so on, the probability of which can be
Qp discharge of sewage flowing in the lake, m3/d; calculated by event tree analysis, fault tree analysis , analogy
Qh discharge of sewage flowing out the lake m3/d; method and statistical method. The event tree and fault tree
analysis are the more commonly used methods to determine the
C0 concentration of pollutants existing in the lake mg/L;
probability of accident quantitatively.
Cp concentration of sewage flowing in the lake mg/L;
V volume of lake.
The results, which can be computed from the above V. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF
mathematical model, shows that the concentration of ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
hazardous substances in water, soil and atmospheric
environment is relevant to the leakage of hazardous A. Analysis of environmental risk
substances when the accident occurred. Here are some • Environment risk assessment of atmospheric
formulas for the hazardous substances to estimate the leakage. Concentration distribution should be first calculated. Then,
B. leakage estimation the range of concentration distribution and population
distribution within the range should be given according to
• liquid leaking speed permission concentration for a short exposure time which is
Using Bernoulli equation to calculate liquid leaking speed stipulated by GBZ2 standard “Occupational exposure limit for
QL: hazardous agents in the workplace”. The incidence of
2 ( P − P0 )
ecological environment, such as pollution of agricultural,
Q = C Aρ + 2 gh . (6) forestry and soil, would be confirmed by the model of
L d
ρ
atmospheric pollutant diffusion.
Where;
QL liquid leaking speed, kg/s; • Environmental risk assessment of water
Cd liquid leaking coefficient, normally 0.6-0.64; On the basis of pollutant distribution, the indices would be
A cleft area, m2; computed, such as pollutant scope, drift trajectory of pollutant

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particle and concentration distribution. The results must be
compared with threshold of aquatic ecosystem. The focuses on
water are the impact degree to aquatic ecosystem and
agriculture irrigation and drinking-water.
• Environmental risk assessment of soil
Risk assessment for soil ecosystem can be characterized by
the damage of soil ecosystem, including area and depth of the
pollution. The range and value of damage should be given
according to the value of damaging soil ecological resources.
The analysis should put emphases on the extent of soil
restoration, the incidence of agricultural, pollution level of
groundwater and the influence of forestry.
B. Hazard calculation
After concentration range and degree of proliferation of
dangerous substances were determined, in order to measure the
degree of pollution, the unified index used at present is to
consider the degree of human damage. The shortage for this
method is to consider the toxicity only. The effect of toxicity
usually adopts probability function to calculate the dose of
experience death or injury probability caused from the
pollution source to a certain toxic substances.
The relations between probability Y and concentrations of
poison and contact time on dangerous substances can be
calculated by the following formula empirically,
Y = At + Bt ln( D n t e ) .
The harm degree of pollutant Ci on human health,
agricultural, surface water, forestry, soil and other elements are
respectively expressed as Fai. The measured results can be
converted into a unified calculated method so as to measure the
degree of damage. The best indices are economic loss or
injuries. The risk harmful levels for atmospheric environment
can be expressed as Ca,
Ca = ∑ F ai
. (11)
• Calculation of water environmental risk hazards Cw
This part mainly considers calculation of the harmful levels
for surface water. The emphasis is on the influence of aquatic
life and the damage extent to water function. The influence on
aquatic life can be determined according to the value of aquatic
organisms such as protected fish. The damage extent to water
function can be analyzed mainly from the water features, such
as irrigation features, water features and pollution recovery
function. And the impact on aquatic, method LC50 can be used
in which economic indicators analysis can be adopted.
Cw = ∑F w
i
. (12)
• Calculation of soil environmental risk hazards Cs
The hazards in this part include the assessment of soil
restoration degree, crop damage degree, forest damage degree
and groundwater pollution degree. Whatever the analysis is, all
(9) economic indicators can be used to measure and calculate.

Where; C s = ∑ Fsi . (13)

At, Bt and n, coefficients related to the nature of dangerous

substances: C. Risk Assessment
Suppose that there exist M types of dangerous substances in
D the exposure concentration (kg/m-3); dangerous goods transportation, the total harm to environment
te the exposure time; in a transportation task is:

D nte The toxic load. C = ∑C

M
a
j
+ ∑C
M
w
j
+ ∑C
M
s
j . (14)

In a given point, the concentration of toxicity changes with the

passing and dilution of fog. Because of the limitation of the
parameters At, Bt, n for many substances, the matured
parameters would be utilized in the calculation of (9) in detail.
In practice, simplified analysis method LC (50) usually can be
adopted to analyze the influence of toxicity. In some downwind
place, if Dimax of chemical contaminants concentration greater
than or equal to its concentration LCi50 that can led up to half
the number of lethal, then the number of deaths Ci caused by
health pollutants because of accident in the assessment region
can be given by the followed formula:
Ci = ∑ 0 .5 N ( X
ln
i ln, , Y j ln ) .
where, N(Xiln，Yjln) is the number of people in the area where
the concentration of pollutants exceed of degree can causing
half the number of lethal.
• Calculation of atmospheric environmental risk hazards
Ca
If the probability of occurrence P, environmental risk R of
the transportation is
R = P ×C . (15)
Environmental risk assessment chooses the greatest hazard
as the maximum confident accident of the transportation task
from the maximum credible accident risk Rj. The chosen
maximum risk is used as the basis of accepted risk level. The
expression is
R max = f ( R j ) . (16)
(10)
The analysis of acceptable risk is to compare the maximum
value Rmax with the level of acceptable risk RL in the same
industry. If Rmax≤RL, the level of environmental risk is
acceptable. Otherwise, the environmental risk is unacceptable.

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 VI. CONCLUSION
Transportation of dangerous goods is an important
component of transportation system. Because of the high-risk
features, the risk management has been put more attention to
dangerous goods transportation at home and abroad. First of all,
the components of environmental risk have been introduced
according to the definition. The emphases on environmental
risk are to determine the characteristics of dangerous goods and
dangerous goods accident diffusion rules and the degree of the
damaged consequences. This paper puts forward a model to
calculate the damaged consequences. A procedure is also given.
Finally, the indices of assessing environmental risk during
dangerous goods transportation have been given. The
ecological environmental risk analysis will be given in another
paper.
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