UNIT 5 – TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

Transportation/Travel Demand refers to the amount and type of travel people

would choose under specific conditions, taking account factors such as the
quality of transport options available and their prices.

Travel demand models use current travel behavior to predict future travel
patterns from a sample of travel behavior data. As you might expect, models are
critical tools for planners and engineers who use them to forecast the
transportation needs of the communities they serve.

Travel demand modeling aims to establish the spatial distribution of travel

explicitly by means of an appropriate system of zones. Modeling of demand thus
implies a procedure for predicting what travel decisions people would like to
make given the generalized travel cost of each alternative.

Demand modeling creates an adaptive demand distribution that best fits the
demand profile. Probabilistic forecasting then produces a range of possible
outcomes with probabilities assigned to all values within the range. It goes
beyond the “demand forecast number” to the probability of demand in any given
time period.

Travel Demand Forecasting is the process used to predict travel behavior and
resulting demand for a specific future time frame, based on assumptions dealing
with land use, the number and character of trip makers, and the nature of the
transportation system.

Travel Demand Forecasting is a key component of the transportation

engineer's technical repertoire. It allows the engineer to predict the volume of
traffic that will use a given transportation element in the future, whether that
element is an existing highway or a potential light-rail route.

Transport demand forecasting is to predict future transport demand when

establishing transport plans within a given budget. Since transport demand
closely interacts with socioeconomic environment and land use, future
socioeconomic indexes and land use patterns need to be estimated first.
The disadvantages pertaining to forecasting include the following:

 Forecasts are Never Completely Accurate

 Forecasts are never 100% and
 it is almost impossible to predict the future with certainty.

Even if you have a great process in place and forecasting experts on your
payroll, your forecasts will never be spot on.

Transportation forecasting is the attempt of estimating the number of vehicles

or people that will use a specific transportation facility in the future. For instance,
a forecast may estimate the number of vehicles on a planned road or bridge, the
ridership on a railway line, the number of passengers visiting an airport, or the
number of ships calling on a seaport.

Traffic forecasting begins with the collection of data on current traffic. This
traffic data is combined with other known data, such as population, employment,
trip rates, travel costs, etc., to develop a traffic demand model for the current
situation. Feeding it with predicted data for population, employment, etc. results
in estimates of future traffic, typically estimated for each segment of the
transportation infrastructure in question, e.g., for each roadway segment or
railway station. The current technologies facilitate the access to dynamic data,
big data, etc., providing the opportunity to develop new algorithms to improve
greatly the predictability and accuracy of the current estimations.

Traffic forecasts are used for several key purposes in transportation

policy, planning, and engineering: to calculate the capacity of infrastructure, e.g.,
how many lanes a bridge should have; to estimate the financial and
social viability of projects, e.g., using cost–benefit analysis and social impact
assessment; and to calculate environmental impacts, e.g., air pollution and noise.

Transport Forecasts
 Transport demand is a quantitative input to evaluate supply strategy of
transport facilities and land use planning.
 Presented as travel volume based on transport system usage,
including transport facilities and transport services.
  The derived demand was created by continuous interaction of
transport systems and activity systems.
 The forecast is based on current travel patterns of transport systems
and under the assumption that general conditions will not greatly
change. Therefore, drastic or detailed changes can result in prediction
errors.

Usage
 Transport demand forecasting is used as important basic data to
evaluate the efficiency of transport facility supply and transport policy,
such as road construction, public transport introduction, and transport
demand management implementation.
 It is also used to evaluate land use plans by estimating travel volume
according to the change of land use patterns within a given transport
system.

Forecast Evaluation

 Compiling data on the network (including transport zone, links, and

nodes) and O/D travel volume within the current base year’s land use
patterns.
 Conducting the base year’s network (including transport zone, links,
and nodes) and O/D travel volume as close as possible to reality.
 Predicting future transport demand on target year zones, links, and
nodes) and O/D travel volume within the current base year.
 For the prediction to be correct, the future general conditions need to
stay largely the same from the standpoint of travel patterns. Reflecting
all long-term changes of passenger patterns is rather limited.
 Accurate prediction on the change of target year conditions need to
stay largely the same from the travel pattern in the transport demand
forecast.

The details-of existing transport network are an important source of information.

In some cases, a very detailed description of links and nodes in terms of vehicle
speed, carriage-way width and nodal type is collected. Travel times and network
characteristics of public transport networks are simultaneously collected. Finally,
data processing should be done. When this has been completed, planners can
begin their data analysis.
Four- step forecasting model

Travel demand modeling involves a series of mathematical models that attempt

to simulate human behavior while traveling. The simulation process is known as
the four – step process for the four basic models. This follows a sequential
procedure:
1. Trip Generation
2. Trip Distribution
3. Modal Split and
4. Traffic Assignments

Trip Generation

Determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each zone by trip

purpose, as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other
socio-economic factors. For each discrete spatial unit, it is estimated the extent
to which it is an origin and destination for movements. The output is usually the
number of trips generated and attracted by a given spatial unit.

The main factors affecting personal trip production include income, vehicle
ownership, house hold structure and family size. In addition, factors like value of
land, residential density and accessibility are also considered for modeling at
zonal levels.

The first stage of model building process is that of trip generation. Trips are made
for a variety of purposes and for various land uses. For convenience, trips are
often split into two groups:

1. Home-based trips: Such trips have one trip end at the home of the
person making the trip, which may be either the origin or destination of the given
trip.

2. Non-home-based trips: These have neither origin nor destination trip-

end at the home of the person making the trip. These initial part of the transport
model expresses trip-making relationships in a mathematical form so that
ultimately, we can calculate the total number of trips-ends originating from the
defined survey zones.
Growth factor modes tries to predict the number of trips produced or attracted by
a house hold or zone as a linear function of explanatory variables. The models
have the following basic equation:

Ti = f i t i

where Ti is the number of future trips in the zone and ti is the number of current
trips in that zone and fi is a growth factor. The growth factor fi depends on the
explanatory variable such as population (P) of the zone, average house hold
income (I), average vehicle ownership (V). The simplest form of fi is represented
as follows:

where the subscript” d” denotes the design year and the subscript” c” denotes the
current year.

Example:

Given that a zone has 275 household with car and 275 household without car
and the average trip generation rates for each group is respectively 5.0 and 2.5
trips per day. Assuming that in the future, all households will have a car, find the
growth factor and future trips from that zone, assuming that the population and
income remains constant.

Solution:

Current trip rate ti = 275 x 2.5 + 275 x 5.0 = 2062.5 trips /day

Growth Factor Fi = = = 2.0

Therefore, number of future trips:

Ti = Fiti = 2.0 × 2062.5 = 4125 trips / day.

The above example also shows the limitation of growth factor method. If we think
intuitively, the trip rate will remain same in the future. Therefore, the number of
trips in the future will be 550 households × 5 trips per day = 2750 trips per day.

It may be noted from the above example that the actual trips generated is much
lower than the growth factor method. Therefore, growth factor models are
normally used in the prediction of external trips where no other methods are
available. But for internal trips, regression methods are more suitable.

Regression Method

The general form of a trip generation model is:

Ti = 𝑓(𝑥 , 𝑥 , 𝑥 , … . . 𝑥 , … 𝑥 )

Where xi’s are prediction factor or explanatory variable. The most common form
of trip generation model is a linear function of the form:

Ti = 𝑎 + 𝑎 𝑥 + 𝑎 𝑥 + ⋯ 𝑎 𝑥 … + 𝑎 𝑥

where ai’s are the coefficient of the regression equation relating to independent
variables (e.g. household income, car ownership, household structure, etc.) and
can be obtained by doing regression analysis. The above equations are called
multiple linear regression equation, and the solutions are tedious to obtain
manually. However, for the purpose of illustration, an example with one variable
is given.

Example:

Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the household size done from the field
survey. It was found that the household sizes are 1, 2, 3 and 4. The trip rates of
the corresponding household is as shown in the table below. Fit a linear equation
relating trip rate and household size.
 Household Size (x) 1 2 3 4
1 2 4 6
Trips per day (y) 2 4 5 7
2 3 3 4
∑y 5 9 12 17

Solution: The linear equation will have the form: y = bx + a

Where: y = trip rate
x = household size
a & b = coefficients

∑x = 3x1 + 3x2 + 3x3 + 3x4 = 30

∑x2 = 3x(1)2 + 3(2)2 + 3(3)2 + 3(4)2 = 90
∑y = 5 + 9 + 12 + 17 = 43
∑xy = 1x1 + 1x2 + 1x2 + 2x2 + 2x4 + 2x3 + 3x4 + 3x5 + 3x3 +
4x6 + 4x7 + 4x4
∑xy = 127

̅y = = 3.58

̅x = = 2.5

∑ ∑ ∑
b=
∑ (∑ )

[ ( ) ( )]
b=
[ ( )( )

b = 1.3

a = 3.58 – 1.3(2.5)
a = 0.33
̅y = 1.3x – 0.33

New estimates of the independent variables are made and inserted into the
equation in order to estimate future levels of trips generation. Multiple regression
analysis, therefore, provides a suitable method for estimating future trip levels. Its
main disadvantage, however, is that the original regression estimates have been
established at a given point in time and are expected to remain constant over the
period for which the forecast is required.

Consequently, a more recent approach to trip generation has been to use a

technique known as “category analysis”. The trip-generation stage of the
planning process estimates the total number of trips originating in the survey
area at one or more future dates.

Trip Distribution

The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip generation. These
generated trips from each zone are then distributed to all other zones based on
the choice of destination. This is called trip distribution which forms the second
stage of travel demand modeling. There are a number of methods to distribute
trips among destinations; and two such methods are growth factor model and
gravity model. Growth factor model is a method which respond only to relative
growth rates at origins and destinations and this is suitable for short term trend
extrapolation. In gravity model, we start from assumptions about trip making
behavior and the way it is influenced by external factors. An important aspect of
the use of gravity models is their calibration, that is the task of fixing their
parameters so that the base year travel pattern is well represented by the model.

Trip distribution usually occurs through an allocation model that splits trips from
each origin zone into distinct destinations. That is, there is a matrix which relates
the number of trips originating in each zone to the number of trips ending in each
zone and matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity model function,
equivalent to an entropy maximizing model. Trip Distribution is commonly a
spatial interaction model estimates movements (flows) between origins and
destinations and which can consider constraints such as distance. The output is
a flow matrix between spatial units.

Trip matrix

The trip pattern in a study area can be represented by means of a trip matrix or
origin-destination (O-D) matrix. This is a two-dimensional array of cells where
rows and columns represent each of the zones in the study area. The notation of
the trip matrix is given in figure below. The cells of each row i contain the trips
originating in that zone which have as destinations the zones in the
corresponding columns. Tij is the number of trips between origin i and destination
j. Oi is the total number of trips between originating in zone i and Dj is the total
number of trips attracted to zone j. The sum of the trips in a row should be equal
to the total number of trips emanating from that zone. The sum of the trips in a
column is the number of trips attracted to that zone. These two constraints can
be represented as: ΣjTij = Oi ΣiTij = Dj If reliable information is available to
estimate both Oi and Dj , the model is said to be doubly constrained. In some
cases, there will be information about only one of these constraints, the model is
called singly constrained.

Generalized cost

One of the factors that influences trip distribution is the relative travel cost
between two zones. This cost element may be considered in terms of distance,
time or money units. It is often convenient to use a measure combining all the
main attributes related to the dis-utility of a journey and this is normally referred
to as the generalized cost of travel. This can be represented as

Cij = a1𝑡 + 𝑎 𝑡 + 𝑎 𝑡 + 𝑎 𝑡 + 𝑎 𝐹 + 𝑎 ∅ + 𝛿

Where:

𝑡 = the vehicle travel time between i and j

𝑡 =the walking time to and from stops
𝑡 = waiting time at stops
Fij = the fare charged to travel between i and j
∅ = the parking cost at the destination
𝛿 = a parameter representing comfort and convenience
a1, a2 …= the weights attached to each element of cost function.
Growth factor methods

Uniform growth factor

If the only information available is about a general growth rate for the whole of
the study area, then we can only assume that it will apply to each cell in the
matrix, that is a uniform growth rate. The equation can be written as:

Tij = f x tij

Where:

f = is the uniform growth factor

tij = is the previous total number of trips
Tij = is the expanded total number of trips

Example

Trips originating from zone 1,2,3 of a study area are 78,92 and 82 respectively
and those terminating at zones 1,2,3 are given as 88,96 and 78 respectively. If
the growth factor is 1.3 and the cost matrix is as shown below, find the expanded
origin-constrained growth trip table.

1 2 3 Oi
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 34 26 82
dj 88 96 78 252

Solution

Given growth factor = 1.3, Therefore, multiplying the growth factor with each of
the cells in the matrix gives the solution as shown below.

Oi
1 2 3
1 26 39 36.4 101.4
2 46.8 41.6 31.2 119.6
3 28.6 44.2 33.8 106.2
Dj 101.4 124.8 101.4 327.6
Advantages and limitations of growth factor model

The advantages of this method are:

1. Simple to understand
2. Preserve observed trip pattern
3. Useful in short term-planning

The limitations are:

4. Depends heavily on the observed trip pattern.
5. It cannot explain unobserved trips.
6. Do not consider changes in travel cost.
7. Not suitable for policy studies like introduction of a mode.

Example:

The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three zones is given
below.

1 2 3 Oi
1 20 30 28 78
2 36 32 24 92
3 22 34 26 82
dj 88 96 78 252

The productions from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon year is expected to grow
to 98, 106, and 122 respectively. The attractions from these zones are expected
to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively. Compute the trip matrix for the horizon
year using doubly constrained growth factor model using Furness method.

Solution:

The sum of the attractions in the horizon year,

∑Oi = 98 + 106 + 122 = 326

The sum of the productions in the horizon year

∑Dj = 102 + 118 + 106 = 326

They both are found to be equal. Therefore, we can proceed.

The first step is to fix bj = 1 and find balancing factor a1, a1 = then find

Tij = a1 x tij

a1 = = 1x.26 a2 = a3 = = 1.49

Further T11 = t11 x a1 = 20 x 1.26 = 25.2, similarly

T12 = t12 x a2 = 36 x 1.15 = 41.4

Multiplying a1 with the first row of the matrix, a2 with the second row and so on,
matrix obtain will be:

1 2 3 Oi
1 25.2 37.8 35 28 98
2 41.4 36.8 27.6 106
3 32.78 50.66 38.74 122
𝑑 99.38 125.26 101.62
D 102 118 106

Also,

𝑑 = 25. 2 + 41.4 + 32.78 = 99.38

In the second step:

find bj = and Tij = tij x bj b1= = 1.03 b2 = = 0.94

. .

T11 = 25.2 x 1.03 = 25.96

𝑂 = 25.96 + 35.53 + 36.69 = 98.18

 1 2 3 oi Oi
1 25.96 35.53 36.69 98.18 98
2 42.64 34.59 28.70 105.93 106
3 33.76 47.62 40.29 121.67 122
bj 1.03 0.94 1.04
Dj 102 118 106

1 2 3 𝑂 Oi
1 25.96 35.53 36.69 98.18 98
2 42.64 34.59 28.70 105.93 106
3 33.76 47.62 40.29 121.67 122
dj 102.36 117.74 105.68 325.78
Dj 102 118 106 326

Therefore error can be computed as; Error = ∑(𝑂 − 𝑂 ) + ∑(𝐷 − 𝑑 )

Error = (98.18 – 98) + (105.93 – 106) + (121.67 – 122) + (102.36 – 102)

+ (117.74 – 118) + (105.68 – 106)
Error = 1.32

Modal Split

The third stage in travel demand modeling is modal split. The trip matrix or O-D
matrix obtained from the trip distribution is sliced into number of matrices
representing each mode.

Movements between origins and destination are then disaggregated by modes.

This function depends on the availability of each mode, their respective costs,
and also social preferences. Mode choice computes the proportion of trips
between each origin and destination that use a particular transportation mode.
This term is used by transport planners to describe the phase where the choice
of travel mode is incorporated into the model. The positioning of this stage is
neither fixed nor singularly definable since elements of model split are part of the
other stages. Its position within the transportation model differs between studies.
It is either used at the trip generation stage by stratifying the total trips or at the
assignment stage of the model. The main purpose of the model-split stage is to
determine the trip shares of public, as against private, transport.

Mode choice

The choice of transport mode is probably one of the most important classic
models in transport planning. This is because of the key role played by public
transport in policy making. Public transport modes make use of road space more
efficiently than private transport. Also they have more social benefits like if more
people begin to use public transport, there will be less congestion on the roads
and the accidents will be less. Again, in public transport, we can travel with low
cost. In addition, the fuel is used more efficiently. Main characteristics of public
transport is that they will have some particular schedule, frequency etc. On the
other hand, private transport is highly flexible. It provides more comfortable and
convenient travel. It has better accessibility also. The issue of mode choice,
therefore, is probably the single most important element in transport planning and
policy making. It affects the general efficiency with which we can travel in urban
areas. It is important then to develop and use models which are sensitive to
those travel attributes that influence individual choices of mode.

Factors influencing the choice of mode

The factors may be listed under three groups:

1. Characteristics of the trip maker
2. Characteristics of the journey
3. Characteristics of the transport facility

Characteristics of the trip maker:

The following features are found to be important:

1. Car availability and/or ownership;

2. possession of a driving license;
3. household structure (young couple, couple with children, retired people
etc.
4. income;
5. decisions made elsewhere, for example the need to use a car at work,
take children to school, etc.
6. residential density
Characteristics of the journey

Mode choice is strongly influenced by:

1. The trip purpose; for example, the journey to work is normally easier to
undertake by public transport than other journeys because of its
regularity and the adjustment possible in the long run;
2. Time of the day when the journey is undertaken.
3. Late trips are more difficult to accommodate by public transport

Characteristics of the transport facility

Two types of factors:

1. Quantitative
2. Qualitative

Quantitative factors are:

1. Relative travel time: in-vehicle, waiting and walking times by each mode
2. Relative monetary costs (fares, fuel and direct costs)
3. Availability and cost of parking

Qualitative factors
1. Comfort and convenience
2. Reliability and regularity
3. Protection, security

A good mode choice should include the most important of these factors.

Types of modal split models

Trip-end modal split models

Traditionally, the objective of transportation planning was to forecast the growth

in demand for car trips so that investment could be planned to meet the demand.
When personal characteristics were thought to be the most important
determinants of mode choice, attempts were made to apply modal-split models
immediately after trip generation. Such a model is called trip-end modal split
model. In this way different characteristics of the person could be preserved and
used to estimate modal split. The modal split models of this time related the
choice of mode only to features like income, residential density and car
ownership.
The advantage is that these models could be very accurate in the short run, if
public transport is available and there is little congestion. Limitation is that they
are insensitive to policy decisions example: Improving public transport, restricting
parking etc. would have no effect on modal split according to these trip-end
models.

Trip-interchange modal split models

This is the post-distribution model; that is modal split is applied after the
distribution stage. This has the advantage that it is possible to include the
characteristics of the journey and that of the alternative modes available to
undertake them. It is also possible to include policy decisions. This is beneficial
for long term modeling.

Aggregate and disaggregate models

Mode choice could be aggregate if they are based on zonal and inter-zonal
information. They can be called disaggregate if they are based on household or
individual data.

Binary logit model e is higher than the other, then that mode is chosen. But in
transportation, we have disutility also. The disutility here is the travel cost. This
can be represented as:

Cij = 𝑎 𝑡 +𝑎 𝑡 +𝑎 𝑡 +𝑎 𝑡 +𝑎 𝐹 +𝑎 ∅ +𝛿

Where:

𝑡 = the in-vehicle travel time between i and j

𝑡 = the walking time to and from stops
𝑡 = the waiting time at stops
𝐹 = the fare charge to travel between i and j
∅ = the parking cost
𝛿 = a parameter representing comfort and convenience

If the travel cost is low, then that mode has more probability of being chosen. Let
there be two modes (m = 1, 20) then the proportion of trips by mode 1 from zone
i to zone j is (𝑃 ). Let (𝑐 ) be the cost of travelling from zone i to zone j using
the mode 1and (𝑐 ) be the cost of travelling from zone i to zone j by mode 2,
there are three cases:
1. If (𝑐 ) - (𝑐 ) is positive then mode 1 is chosen
2. If (𝑐 ) - (𝑐 ) is negative then mode 2 is chosen
3. If (𝑐 ) - (𝑐 ) is 0 then modes have equal probability

This relationship is normally expressed by a logit curve shown below. Therefore,

the proportion of trips by mode 1 is:

𝑃 =𝑇 𝑡 =

This functional form is called logit, where:

𝑐 = the generalized cost
𝛽 = the parameter for calibration

Figure of Logit Function

The graph shows the proportion of trips by mode 1 ( ) against cost difference.
Example:

Let the number of trips from zone i to zone j is 5000, and two modes are
available which has the characteristics given in the table. Compute the trips
made by mode bus, and the fare that is collected from the mode bus. If the fare
of the bus is reduced to 6, then find the fare collected.
 Trip Characteristics
𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 𝑓 ∅
car 20 - 18 4
bus 30 5 3 9
𝑎 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1

Solution:

The base case is given below:

Cost of travel by car ccar = 0.03x20 + 0.06x18 + 0.1X4 = 2.08

Cost of travel by bus cbus = 0.03x30 + 0.05x5 + 0.06x3 + 0.1x9 = 2.18

.
Probability of choosing mode car: 𝑃 = . . = 0.52

.
Probability of choosing mode bus: 𝑃 = . . = 0.475

Binary Logit model example solution

𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 𝑓 ∅ 𝑐 𝑝 𝑇
car 20 - 18 4 2.08 0.52 2600
bus 30 5 3 9 2.18 0.475 2400
𝑎 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1

Trip Characteristics
𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 𝐹 ∅
coefficient 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1
car 20 - - 18 4
bus 30 5 3 6 -
train 12 10 2 4 -

Proportion trips by car: 𝑇 = 5000 x 0.52 = 2600

Proportion trips by bus: 𝑇 = 5000 x 0.475 = 2400

Fare collected from bus: 𝑇 x 𝐹 = 2400 x 9 = 21600

When the fare of the bus is reduced by 6:

Cost function for bus: 𝑐 = 0.030x30 + 0.04x5 + 0.06x3 + 0.1x6 = 1.88

.
Probability of choosing mode bus: 𝑃 = . . = 0.55

Proportion of trips by bus: 𝑇 = 5000 x 0.55 = 2750

Fare collected from the bus: 𝑇 x 𝐹 = 2750 x 6 = 16500

The results will be tabulated in a table

Traffic Assignment.

The process of allocating given set of trip interchanges to the specified

transportation system is usually referred to as traffic assignment. The
fundamental aim of the traffic assignment process is to reproduce on the
transportation system, the pattern of vehicular movements which would be
observed when the travel demand represented by the trip matrix, or matrices, to
be assigned is satisfied. The major aims of traffic assignment procedures are:

1. To estimate the volume of traffic on the links of the network and obtain
aggregate network measures.
2. To estimate inter zonal travel cost.
3. To analyze the travel pattern of each origin to destination(O-D) pair.
4. To identify congested links and to collect traffic data useful for the design
of future junctions.

Link cost function as the flow increases towards the capacity of the stream, the
average stream speed reduces from the free flow speed to the speed
corresponding to the maximum flow. This can be seen in the graph shown below.
That means traffic conditions worsen and congestion starts developing. The inter
zonal flows are assigned to the minimum paths computed on the basis of free-
flow link impedances (usually travel time). But if the link flows were at the levels
dictated by the assignment, the link speeds would be lower and the link travel
time would be higher than those corresponding to the free flow conditions. So,
the minimum path computed prior to the trip assignment will not be the minimum
after the trips are assigned. A number of interative procedures are done to
converge this difference. The relation between the link flow and link impedance is
called the link cost function and is given by the equation:

t = to [1 + 𝛼( ) ]
where:
t = travel time
x = flow on the link
to = free flow travel time
k = practical capacity
𝛼 and 𝛽 = model parameters for which
𝛼 = 0.15 minimum
𝛽 = 4.0

The types of traffic assignment models are all-or-nothing assignment (AON),

incremental assignment, capacity restraint assignment, user equilibrium
assignment (UE), stochastic user equilibrium assignment (SUE), system
optimum assignment (SO), etc. The frequently used model all-or-nothing, user
equilibrium and system optimum.

All-or-nothing assignment

In this method the trips from any origin zone to any destination zone are loaded
onto a single, minimum cost, path between them. This model is unrealistic as
only one path between every O-D pair is utilized even if there is another path with
the same or nearly same travel cost. Also, traffic on links is assigned without
consideration of whether or not there is adequate capacity or heavy congestion;
travel time is a fixed input and does not vary depending on the congestion on a
link. However, this model may be reasonable in sparse and uncongested
networks where there are few alternative routes and they have a large difference
in travel cost. This model may also be used to identify the desired path: the path
which the drivers would like to travel in the absence of congestion. In fact, this
model’s most important practical application is that it acts as a building block for
other types of assignment techniques. It has a limitation that it ignores the fact
that link travel time is a function of link volume and when there is congestion or
that multiple paths are used to carry traffic.

Example

To demonstrate how this assignment works, an example network is considered.

This network has two nodes having two paths as links. Let us suppose a case
where travel time is not a function of flow as shown in other words it is constant
as shown in the figure below.

Two Link Problem with constant travel time function

Solution:

The travel time functions for both the links are given by:

t1 = 10

t2 = 15

and total flows from 1 to 2 is given by. q12 = 12. Since the shortest path is Link 1
all flows are assigned to it making x1 =12 and x2 = 0.

Other assignment methods

Incremental assignment

Incremental assignment is a process in which fractions of traffic volumes are

assigned in steps. In each step, a fixed proportion of total demand is assigned,
based on all-or-nothing assignment. After each step, link travel times are
recalculated based on link volumes. When there are many increments used, the
flows may resemble an equilibrium assignment. However, this method does not
yield an equilibrium solution. Consequently, there will be inconsistencies between
link volumes and travel times that can lead to errors in evaluation measures.
Also, incremental assignment is influenced by the order in which volumes for O-D
pairs are assigned, raising the possibility of additional bias in results.

Capacity restraint assignment

Capacity restraint assignment attempts to approximate an equilibrium solution by

iterating between all-or-nothing traffic loadings and recalculating link travel times
based on a congestion function that reflects link capacity. Unfortunately, this
method does not converge and can flip-flop back and forth in loadings on some
links.

Stochastic user equilibrium assignment

User equilibrium assignment procedures based on Wardrop’s principle assume

that all drivers perceive costs in an identical manner. A solution to assignment
problem on this basis is an assignment such that no driver can reduce his
journey cost by unilaterally changing route. Van Vilet considered as stochastic
assignment models, all those models which explicitly allows non minimum cost
routes to be selected. Virtually all such models assume that drivers’ perception of
costs on any given route are not identical and that the trips between each O-D
pair are divided among the routes with the cheapest route attracting most trips.
They have important advantage over other models because they load many
routes between individual pairs of network nodes in a single pass through the
tree building process, the assignments are more stable and less sensitive to
slight variations in network definitions or link costs to be independent of flows and
are thus most appropriate for use in uncongested traffic conditions such as in off
peak periods or lightly trafficked rural areas.

Dynamic Assignment

Dynamic user equilibrium, expressed as an extension of Wardrop’s user

equilibrium principle, may be defined as the state of equilibrium which arises
when no driver can reduce his disutility of travel by choosing a new route or
departure time, where disutility includes, schedule delay in addition in to costs
generally considered. Dynamic stochastic equilibrium may be similarly defined in
terms of perceived utility of travel. The existence of such equilibrium in complex
networks has not been proven theoretical and even if they exist the question of
uniqueness remains open.
All the estimated trips by origin, destination and mode and then “loaded” on the
transportation network, mainly with the consideration that users want to minimize
their travel time or have to flow through existing transit networks. If the traffic
exceeds the capacity of specific transport segments (which is often the case),
congestion occurs and negatively affects travel time. This in turn, through a
feedback process, may influence trip generation and distribution.

This procedure is consequently iterative and converges towards a solution, often

measured as the minimal transportation cost considering a given travel demand
and the characteristics of the existing transportation network. It relies on an
extensive array of data that can be obtained through census information, surveys
and estimates.

Its aim being to stimulate route choice through a defined transport network.
Traffic assignment may be considered in two parts.

First, it is necessary to define the transport network and determine criteria for
route choice through the network.

Second, using the inter-zonal trip matrix as the input data, trips are assigned to
this network.

When future trip levels are assigned, it is possible to assess deficiencies in the
existing transport network and so determine a list of construction priorities.
Network description refers to the process where the highway network is broken
down into links and nodes. For each link, data is required on its length, road type,
vehicle travel time and traffic capacity. When coding the road network, links are
usually identified by the node numbers at each of its ends. In addition to such
route-intersection nodes, zone-centroid nodes are also defined. In the
assignment process, all traffic originating in a particular traffic zone is assumed to
be loaded on to the network at this latter type of node.

The early transportation studies used manual assignment techniques, but with
the universal use of computer analysis, the transport network can be specified to
the computer in a most detailed manner. Special data collection surveys
(especially of journey times) are usually needed to provide this network
specification information.

For deriving minimum route paths through the network, it is normally assumed
that travelers choose the path, which minimizes travel time. This applies for both
private and public transport journeys. Travel time has been used in most
transportation studies although it is usually used as an approximation for
minimizing the travel costs of a journey.

A more recent and more realistic assignment procedure is that of capacity

restraint. This may be used, with or without diversion curves, for assignments to
road and public transport networks. After the initial assignment to the given
network, new travel times are calculated for each link. New minimum path trees
are then calculated and the assignment procedure reiterated. Further reiterations
may follow until most or all of the future traffic volume has been assigned to the
network.

This type of procedure has tended to supersede other assignment techniques

and has been used in most of the second-generation transportation studies. The
assignment stage of the transportation model therefore is the process by which
trips are assigned or loaded on to the road network. At the end of this stage,
construction priorities can be established and alternative proposals put forward.

Home-Interview and Roadside-Interview Survey Variables

Home-Interview  Day and date of journey

trip data  Origin, address and time
 Destination, address and time
 Journey purpose
 Mode of travel
 Ticket or parking cost

Household Data  Number or persons, their age and sex

Roadside Interview
composition and family relationship
 Economic activity status of persons and their
occupations
 Vehicle ownership
 Tenure and property type
 Household income
 Day and date of journey, cordon crossing point
 Vehicle type and occupancy
 Origin and destination of journey
 Origin starting time
 Goods carried and their weight (commercial
vehicle)
Future Land Use and Travel Demand Forecasting

The forecasting of future land use inputs is a precarious task, for two important
reasons. Firstly, transport planners have to rely on the judgment of to the types of
planners for most of their land use forecasts. This information is vitally important
since it has a profound effect upon travel forecasts. Secondly, long-term
forecasting is beset with many statistical problems.

Since transportation planners are usually working at least 10, and sometimes 25
years ahead, their estimates are inevitably open to much criticism. Nevertheless,
estimates of future travel demands have to be made using the best methods,
which are available. Some of these forecasting problems are amplified below in
the listing of the main land use inputs necessary for travel forecasts to be made.

The most important variables are:

a. Population – its size, age structure and distribution.
b. Employment – as the journey to work is the greatest travel demand.
c. Personal income and expenditure.

The above groups of variables have a compound influence upon the overall level
of demand for travel at some future date. Further complications arise when their
impact upon the spatial pattern of this demand is assessed. So, forecasts of
population and economic variables are an important input into the use of the
transportation model for forecasting future travel demands.

Evaluation:

The final stage of the transportation planning process is one of evaluating the
alternative policies, which have been suggested. The evaluation stage is
probably the most important of all, yet has received only limited research
attention. An economic evaluation of transport proposals is necessary because
vehicle-km and road space are commodities, which are not directly bought and
sold.

The technique of cost benefit analysis has consequently evolved as an

investment criterion in the public sector. As such, it provides an economic
evaluation. On the cost side of the calculation, estimates are made for capital
outlay, land purchase and maintenance.

The benefits are those accruing to users, e.g., savings in time, vehicle operation
and accidents. The individual costs and benefits are assessed over a particular
number of years and discounted back to the base year so that a rate of return
can be calculated. On the basis of ‘transportation plan’, transport policies should
be formulated and implemented properly so that systematic ‘sustainable’
development of transport can be done.

Transport Policy

Nowadays every country is particular regarding the planned development of

transport system, thus formulate their own transport policy, which depends upon
their needs and resources. The nature of transport policy varies with time and
space. In formulating transport policy, one should take into consideration the
‘coordination’ and ‘competition’.

The coordination involves the relationship between two or more different modes
of transport. On the other hand, competition has occurred as a consequence of
the public/private sector interaction. The transport policy also differs with the type
of government, i.e., socialistic, democratic, etc. Besides of variations in policy,
which are natural, there are certain points which are useful if incorporated in
transport policy.