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1) A wireless garage door opener has a code determined by the up or down setting of 12 switches.
What is the probability that a burglar guesses the right code in the first try?
Answer: 0.0244%

2) A group of 3 kids is formed in a class with 15 kids. What is the probability that the group consists of
Xavier, Ygritte and Zeth?
Answer: The sample space consists of all possible groups. This is combinations without
!
replacement, so the number of elements in the sample space is ( )!⋅ !
= . Only one of
these consists of Xavier, Ygritte and Zeth, so the probability that this group is formed is =
0.02198%.

3) Samples of emissions from three suppliers are classified for conformance to air-quality
specifications. The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:

Conforms Does not conform

Supplier 1 22 8
Supplier 2 25 5
Supplier 3 30 10

Let denote the event that a sample is from supplier 1, and let denote the event that a sample
conforms to specifications.
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected item conforms, ( )?
| |
Answer: ( ) = | |
= = = .
b) Determine the number of samples in ∩ , ′, and ∪ .
Answer: To the determine the number of elements in ∩ , we identify the intersection
between not (which consists of all samples not from supplier 1) and (which consists of all
samples that conforms) - that is, we count the samples which are from either supplier 2 or 3
(i.e. not 1) and which conforms. This gives us | ∩ | = + = . Likewise, we find
| |= ,| ∪ |= .
c) What is ( ∩ )? What is the the interpretation of this probability?
∩
Answer: ( ∩ )= | |
= = . . Interpretation: the probability that an item
conforms and is from supplier 2 or 3.
d) What is the probability that an item conforms given that it is from supplier 1, ( | )?
Answer: ( | ) = .
e) What is the probability that an item is from supplier 1, given that it conforms, ( | )?
Answer: ( | ) = .
f) Is conforming to specifications and being from supplier 1 independent events?
Answer: No.
4) Suppose and are disjoint events. Construct a Venn diagram that contains the three events , ,
and such that ( | ) = 1 and ( | ) = 0.
Answer:

A
C
B

5) Suppose that ( | ) = 0.4 and ( ) = 0.5. Determine ( ∩ ).

Answer: Use the law for the probability of the intersection, ( ∩ ) = ( | ) ⋅ ( ) = . ⋅
. = .

6) Assume that ( | ) = 0.3, ( ) = 0.9, ( | ′) = 0.5.

a. Find the total probability for B, P(B). Answer: .
b. Find the probability for A given B, ( | ). Answer: 0.84375

7) The following circuit operates if and ony if there is a path of functional devices from left to right.
The probability that a device functions does not depend on whether or not other devices are
functional. What is the probability that the circuit operates?

Answer: Lets first consider the first parallel circuit - we let denote the event that there is a path
through this circuit. There is a path through this circuit if either the top device is functional - let's
call that event - or the bottom device is functional - let's call that event - or if both are
functional - this is the union ∪ .

We now use the law for the probability of the union: ( ∪ ) = ( ) + ( ) ( ∩

). The last part can be calculated by using the law for the probability of the intersection of two
independent events: ( ∩ ) = ( ) ⋅ ( ) (the general law is ( ∩ ) = ( | ) ⋅
( ), but since and are independent, ( | ) = ( )). So we can calculate the
probability that there is a path through the first circuit as
( )= ( ∪ )= ( )+ ( ) ( )⋅ ( )= . + . . ⋅ . = .
Likewise, we can calculate the probability that there is a path through the middle circuit as
( )= . ⋅ . . ⋅ . = .
and the probability that there is a path through the last circuit as
( )= . + . . ⋅ . = .
 At last, we need to calculate that there is a path all the way through. This is the case if there is
both a path through the first, middle, and the last circuit - this is the intersection between the
events , and , ( ∩ ∩ ). Since these are independent events, this probability is given as

( ∩ ∩ )= ( )⋅ ( )⋅ ( )= . ⋅ . ⋅ . = . .

8) A person is tested for diabetes. The test has an accuracy of 95%, i.e. the probability that the test is
positive for a person who are not diabetic is (pos.|non diabetic) = 5% and (pos.|diabetic) =
95%. Assuming that 10% of the population has diabetes, what is the probability that the given
individual it diabetic, given that the test was positive?
Answer: 0.679 (Hints: You need to use The Law of Total Probability to calculate (pos) =
(pos|diabetic) ⋅ (diabetic) + (pos|non diabetic) ⋅ (non diabetic), and then use Bayes'
Theorem to calculate (diabatic | pos)).
 9) The table below classifies 200 emails by whether they are spam or valid emails, and whether they
contain the word free or not.

Contains the word free

Yes No Total

Yes 16 24 40
Spam

No 6 154 160

Total 22 178 200

a. Make a joint probability table corresponding to the table above

Answer:

Contains the word free

Yes No Total

Yes 8% 12 % 20 %
Spam

No 3% 77 % 80 %

Total 11 % 89 % 100 %

b. What is the probability that a randomly selected email contains the word free?
Answer: 11 %
c. What is the probability that an email is spam given that it contains the word free?
Answer: 72.7 %
d. If you select a random email that does not contain the word free, what is the probability
that the email is spam?
Answer: 13.5 %
e. If you select a random spam email, what is the probability that it contains the word free?
Answer: 40 %