10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No.

- 19FortyFive

SMART BOMBS: MILITARY,

DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY Between Friday and Monday, China
AND MORE
launched an unprecedented 155

Should warplanes into the skies near the

Taiwanese coast. “Time to warn

America Taiwan” that the threat of war “is

real,” blasted the headline on

Fight A War Monday from the Chinese Global

Times.

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Now, while there is still time for

aniel Davis
shed 15 hours ago thoughtful debate, is the time to
contemplate the pros and cons
of fighting a war with China over
Taiwan. If we wait until a crisis has
been thrust upon us, we will be
more likely to be propelled by an
emotional response into a
catastrophic mistake.

Lockheed Martin photo by Liz Lutz rJob

Since 1979, the United States has
Reference Number: FP171283 Measles
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Communications.
event China invades Taiwan. China,
in contrast, has been
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10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No. - 19FortyFive

unambiguously clear that it would

use force to take Taiwan if Beijing
believed Taipei sought to declare
independence.

There is a growing chorus in

Washington, however, advocating a
move from strategic ambiguity to
strategic clarity, in which the U.S.
government would make explicit
security guarantees to Taipei and
commit our military to fighting on
their behalf if Beijing attacks them.
Such a policy change would have
profound implications for U.S.
national security, almost all of them
negative. Before any adjustments
are made in a decades’ long policy
that has successfully prevented war
between the U.S. and China,
American policymakers must
answer three crucial questions.

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10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No. - 19FortyFive

First, what is the capacity of the

U.S. Armed Forces to repulse a
Chinese attack against Taiwan?

Second, what price should the U.S.

be willing to pay to accomplish our
policy preferences 6,000 miles from
our shore?

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Third, what is the capacity for

Beijing to act in support of its policy
preferences 100 miles off its shore?

Viewed through the lens of cold,

hard reality, the questions are more
easily answered than many expect.
Let’s take the questions in reverse
order. The autocratic Chinese
leader Xi Jinping has staked
his political legitimacy on unifying
Taiwan with mainland China. In a
speech this summer marking the
100thanniversary of the Chinese
Communist Party, the Chinese
leader did not mince words.
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10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No. - 19FortyFive

Xi forcefully declared that resolving

“the Taiwan question and realizing
China’s complete reunification is a
historic mission and an unshakable
commitment of the Communist
Party of China,” warning that
anyone who tries to stop them, “will
find themselves on a collision
course with a great wall of steel
forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese
people.” The matter of Taiwan is a
highly charged emotional and
political issue for Xi and millions of
Chinese citizens. There is likely
little they would not sacrifice to
achieve their objective of
reunification.

While America does remain the

only truly global superpower, we
are not militarily omnipotent. Our
Armed Forces are spread out
on hundreds of bases in Asia,
Europe, Africa, South America, and
other locations—the U.S. troops
stationed nearest Taiwan are in
Okinawa, about 1,000 miles away.
Virtually all of China’s maritime, air,
and missile forces are concentrated
on its east coast, 100 miles away
from Taiwan. Even with the full
commitment of all our Asian allies –
no sure bet when it comes to
actually fighting a war – China
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10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No. - 19FortyFive

would have a tactical advantage

over us. Thus, our ability to stop a
determined Chinese assault of
Taiwan is likely insufficient.

Lastly, while taking Taiwan is a

desire of most Chinese
mainlanders, militarily defending
the island is at best a distant
interest of many in the U.S. If war is
truly a contest of wills – and it is –
all evidence suggests the Chinese
people are far more willing to make
enormous sacrifices to capture
Taiwan.

If we fight China, the very best

outcome we can hope for is a U.S.
military that is left severely
damaged, thousands of service
members killed and wounded, and
a massive security and financial
burden of defending Taiwan
indefinitely – a bill we cannot afford
to pay. But the worst outcome (and
the more likely result) is that we
lose a war, suffer egregious
casualties, and – in an absolute
worst-case scenario – get drawn
into a nuclear exchange with China
in which millions of American
civilians could die—we shouldn’t
sacrifice Los Angeles for Taipei.

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10/5/21, 5:32 PM Should America Fight A War with China over Taiwan? Hell No. - 19FortyFive

There is absolutely nothing in

Taiwan worth that risk to our
country.

However much we desire to see

Taiwan remain open and free, trying
to prevent a Chinese attack with
force of arms has virtually no
chance of long-term success and a
high probability of catastrophic
failure for our own country. Before
such a choice is thrust on the
United States, our leaders in
Washington must decide to take the
only course of action that will
ensure the security of our country,
and that is to refuse to fight a war
with China over Taiwan.

Now a 1945 Contributing

Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior
Fellow for Defense Priorities and a
former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army
who deployed into combat zones
four times. He is the author of “The
Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.”
Follow him @DanielLDavis1.

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