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CONTENT
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
⚫ ke and kdat
WACC
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
3. NPV format
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Payments:
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
1 2 3 4
PBIT
扣过
sales 100 Sales 100 (taxable
CA
(cost saving) profit) PBIT
Relevant CF: CF; incremental;
-30 -Cost -30 -TAX
-Cost 123 future -Tax
Irrelevant cost: R&D, study,
design-sunk; depreciation; +CA Inv = CA
allocative fix cost…int. cost +CA
Relevant cost: opportunity cost, -Inv on
-inv. On NCA
cost saving … NCA
-CA -10 +S.V + S.V
=Taxable - Inv. on
60 =Taxable CF 70 - inv. On WC
profit WC
-Tax -18 -Tax -21 =NET CF = net CF
+Tax saving
10 3
+CA from CA
52 52
-Inv. on NCA -Inv on NCA
+S.V +S.V
-Inv. on net
-Inv on WC
CA
=Net CF Net CF
Fisher: (1+ money/nominal r)
=(1+real r)*(1+inflation) ;
dr: nominal r=real r+ inflation
cost of CF with growth rate -- nominal r
capital CF no growth rate --- real r
PV
NPV
4. APV Format
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
FC FC FC FC FC FC
Sales/Receipts x x x x
Payments:
Variable costs (x) (x) (x) (x)
Wages / Materials (x) (x) (x) (x)
Incremental fixed costs (x) (x) (x) (x)
Capital allowances (x) (x) (x) (x)
Royalties (x) (x) (x) (x)
Foreign Taxable profits x x x x
Foreign Tax (x) (x) (x) (x)
Capital allowances x x x x
Initial outlay (x)
Realisable value x
Working capital (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) x
Net Foreign cash flow (x) x x x x (x)
Exchange rate (based on PPPT) x x x x x x
Net domestic Cash Flow (x) x x x x (x)
Royalties x x x x
Opportunity cost
Taxable profit
Tax (x) (x) (x) (x)
Additional tax on taxable profits (x) (x) (x) (x)
Total cash flows (x) x x x x (x)
Discount rate
Present value (x) x x x x (x)
Net £ Present Value x/(x)
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
Year CF DF @ L% PV DF @ H% PV
0 (MV) (X) (X)
1-n interest*(1-t) X X
n redemption X X
NPV = NL NPV = NH
NL
IRR=L%+ ×(H% -L%)
NL -NH
Where:
Year 1 2 3 4
CF x x x x
dr x x x x
PV x x x x
Value
Recovery% x x x x
Weighted
x x x x
Ave. years
Duration x
X−μ
Z= σ
VaR = Zσ
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Advanced Investment Appraisal
Capital rationing
Change in Regarding
Delta Option value Share Price
Gamma Delta Share Price
Theta Option value Time
Vega Option value Volatility
Rho Option value Interest Rate
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Acquisitions and Mergers
Types of merger
Nature of acquisitions
Synergy
and mergers
Regulation of takeovers
2. Valuation
PVA+B POST ACQ = PVA + PVB + synergy - consideration (cash)
Max consideration = value of combine - value of acquiring company Max premium = max consideration - value
of target company
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Acquisitions and Mergers
Valuing intangible
Valuation
Cash purchase – 发债
Q: impact on EPS, gearing, financial statement gains of acquiring and target company?
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Corporate Reconstruction and Reorganisation
2. Structural models
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Part Treasury and Advanced Risk Management
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
Word
(此处为网课资源,详情请见视频)
1. Risk mitigation
Risk mitigation is the process of minimising the probability of a risk's occurrence or the impact of the risk should
it occur.
Severity/frequency matrix
Severity
Low High
Accept Transfer
Frequency Low
Risks are not significant Insure risk or implement contingency plan
2. Hedging
2.1 Financial hedging
It involves the use of financial instruments, mainly derivatives to reduce or eliminate exposure to risks.
3. Diversification strategies
Diversification strategies seek to reduce the volatility of earnings of a company. This can be achieved through
product or geographical diversification.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
5. Behavioural finance
Behavioural finance is the influence of psychology on the behaviour of financial practitioners.
⚫ Cognitive dissonance
Investors may be reluctant to admit that their decision to investment was wrong. It explains that why some
investors hold on to shares with prices that have fallen over time and are unlikely to recover.
⚫ Anchoring
Investors may use information that is not relevant but is readily available, possible to simplify the decision
making process. For example, investors may buy shares that in the past have had high values, on the grounds
that these represent their true potential values, even though rational analysis suggests that the prices of
these of shares will remain low in the future.
⚫ Gambler’s fallacy
Investors may believe that the probability of a future outcome will be influenced by how often the same
outcome has occurred in the past. For example, if the value of a company’s shares has risen for some time,
investors may sell those shares on the grounds that the shares have gained in value for ‘long enough’ and
their price must therefore soon start to fall, even if rational analysis suggests that the rise in price will
continue.
⚫ Herd instinct
Investors may buy or sell shares in a company because many other investors have already done so. These
investors believe that a large group of other investors cannot be wrong.
⚫ Confirmation bias
Investors may pay attention to evidence that confirms their current beliefs about their investments and
ignores evidence that casts doubt on their beliefs.
⚫ Attitude to risk
Some investors may be attracted by a company that offers the possibility of making very high returns, even
if the possibility is not very great. While investors with regret aversion tend to avoid investments that have
the risk of making losses, even though expected value analysis suggests that, in the long-term, they will make
significant capital gain.
⚫ Availability bias
Many investors pay most attention to the last set of financial results and other recent information about a
company and take less notice of data that has been available for a while. A consequence of this may be over-
reaction when companies release information, with share prices rising or falling quickly after information is
released and then going back in the opposite direction to an equilibrium value over time.
⚫ Momentum effect
A period of rising share prices may result in a general feeling of optimism that price rise will continue and
increased willingness to invest in companies that show prospects for growth.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Overconfidence
Some acquirer’s managers seem to believe that, however poor the outlook for the target seems, their own
considerable management skills will improve its prospects after the merger takes place.
⚫ Entrapment
Where a strategy is failing, managers may become unwilling to move away from it because of their personal
commitment to it.
In the AFM exam, you’ll need to read the question scenario very carefully. Look out for information about
how investors or managers may be making decisions, or factors in the situation that may trigger biases that
the decision makers have. You may not be about to come to a firm conclusion about what decision maker
will do and why, but you should be looking to discuss various possibilities. Bringing real life into your answer
has to mean questioning the assumption that all financial decisions are taken rationally, and at least
admitting behavioural factors may influence decision makers.
Stakeholder conflict
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Marketing
Marketing is one of the main ways of communicating with its customers and this communication should be
truthful and sensitive to the social and cultural impact on society. The marketing strategy should not target
vulnerable groups, create artificial wants or reinforce consumerism. It should also avoid creating stereotypes
or creating insecurity and dissatisfaction.
⚫ Market behaviour
Companies should not take advantage of their dominant position in the market to exploit suppliers or
customers.
An ethical framework should be developed as a part of a overall company's socialresponsibility which
includes
Economic responsibility
Legal responsibility
Ethical responsibility
Philanthropic responsibility
⚫ Ethical responsibility
Ethical responsibilities arise not as a result of legal requirements but as a result of a moral imperative for
companies to operate in an ethical and fair manner. The following approaches are commonly used.
Mission or value statement
Codes of ethics
Reporting/advice channels
Ethics managers
Ethics consultants
Ethics education and training
Auditing, accounting and reporting
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Philanthropic responsibility
Philanthropy is the last of the responsibilities of a company and includes all those actions that the
company needs to take in order to improve the life of its employees, to contribute to the local community
and to make a difference to society as a whole. Philanthropic activities include charitable donations, the
provision of recreational facilities for employees, the support to educational institutions and the
sponsoring of athletic and cultural events.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
6.6 Integrated
reporting
The aim of integrated reporting is to explain how an organisation creates value over time and demonstrate the
linkage between strategy, governance and financial performance and the social, environmental and economic
contexts within which it operates.
Integrated thinking considers the relationships between the operating and financial units within the business
and the capitals that the organisation uses or affects.
Integrated reporting provides a higher quality of information for investors, which enable them to make more
informed decisions and ensure a better allocation of capital across the whole economy, towards sustainable
businesses that focus on longer-term value creation within natural limits and the expectations of society.
Integrated reporting should encourage better mapping of stakeholder interests and give organisations more
confidence in the information they supply in response to shareholder requests.
Furthermore, integrated reporting should encourage business to focus on enhancing the mechanisms for
stakeholder feedback, which may identify issues that have not been considered as important previously but are
concerns that should have an impact on strategy.
The international integrated reporting council (IIRC) guidance requires a statement from those charged with
governance about their responsibility to ensure the integrity of the integrated report and their conclusion about
whether the integrated report is presented in accordance with the IIRC framework. The guidance is therefore
designed to promote accountability and transparency, but this is not all.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Licensing
Licensing involves conferring rights to make use of the licensor company's production process on
producers located in the overseas market.
The main advantages of licensing are
It can allow fairly rapid penetration of overseas markets.
It does not require substantial financial resources.
Political risks are reduced since the licensee is likely to be a local company.
Licensing may be a possibility where direct investment is restricted or prevented by a country.
For a multinational company, licensing agreements provide a way for funds to be remitted to
the parent company in the form of licence fees.
⚫ Management contracts
Management contracts whereby a firm agrees to sell management skills are sometimes used in
combination with licensing. Such contracts can serve as a means of obtaining funds from subsidiaries,
and may be a useful way of maintaining cash flows where other remittance restrictions apply.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Overseas subsidiaries
The subsidiaries may be wholly owned or just partly owned by the parent company, and some may be
owned through other subsidiaries. The aim of setting up subsidiaries abroad is to increase the profits
of the multinational's parent company.
⚫ Branches
Firms may choose to establish a branch rather than a subsidiary abroad. Since the remitted profits of
a subsidiary will be taxed at a higher rate than those of a branch. And a subsidiary may be subject to
more legal and accounting formalities than a branch.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Free trade
Free trade exists where there is no restriction on imports from other countries or exports to other
countries. Free trade can lead to greater competition and efficiency, and achieve better economic
growth worldwide. The European Union (EU) is a free trade area for trade between its member
countries.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
To prevent the growth of protection by getting member countries to consult with others before
taking any protectionist measures
To act as a forum for assisting free trade, by for example administering agreements, helping
countries negotiate and offering a disputes settlement process
Establishing rules and guidelines to make world trade more predictable
The most favoured nation principle
The WTO encourages free trade by applying the 'most favoured nation' principle where one country
(which is a member of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)) that offers a reduction in
tariffs to another country must offer the same reduction to all other member countries of GATT.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
All the tranches together make up what is known as the deal's capital structure or liability structure.
They are generally paid sequentially, from the most senior to most junior. The more senior tranches
generally have higher ratings than the lower-rated tranches. For example, senior tranches may be rated
AAA, AA or A. A more junior tranche may be rated BB. Ratings can fluctuate after the debt is issued –
even senior tranches could be rated below investment grade (that is, below BBB).
Typical investors of senior tranches are insurance companies, pension funds and other risk-averse
investors.
Junior tranches are more risky, as they are not secured by specific assets. These tranches tend to be
bought by hedge funds and other investors looking for higher risk-return profiles.
⚫ Benefits of tranching
Tranching is a good way of dividing risk. Anyone who invests in risky loans is taking a chance, but
tranching lets you divide the chances up, so that people who want safety can buy the top (senior)
tranches, get less of a profit, but know that they're not going to lose out unless things go seriously
wrong. People who are willing to take their chances in the lower (junior) tranches know that they're
taking a significant risk, but they can potentially make a lot more money.
⚫ Risks of tranching
Tranches are very complex; most investors do not really understand the risks associated with each
tranche.
Tranches may not be divided properly, and the bundling process may be misleading. Investors are
obviously anxious to obtain the most senior tranche – the more junior tranches are more difficult
to 'get rid of'. Therefore some bundles of high-risk loans may be divided into tranches and, say, 80%
of the value of these loans sold as ultra-safe investments. Investors will be unaware of the level of
'rebundling' that occurred before they managed to obtain their 'senior tranche' low-risk bond.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ ICO Benefits
A way to raising capital
companies raising funds via ICO provide a blockchain like bitcoin, rather than a share: a
cryptocurrency token.
the value of the tokens they purchased during the ICO will climb
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
The saving of significant search costs for consumers since they can buy all financial products from
one source
Common accounting standards increase transparency and comparability for investors
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
Globally, countries have been putting austerity measures in place in an attempt to reduce their
spiraling debts. The European Sovereign Debt crisis is a classic example of financial contagion.
As economies slow down, exporting companies suffer from a falling sales. And as government debt is
downgraded and the cost of debt increases, governments often pass on the cost to companies and
consumers in the form of higher interest rates. Therefore, companies with debt of their own will find
themselves trying to meet increasing interest payments while sales revenue is falling.
To try to combat the problem, companies may increase prices to recoup some of their lost sales
revenue. Consumers facing austerity measures in the form of pay cuts or freezes, or more expensive
essential services, will be unable to afford these higher prices and reduce their spending. Companies
will suffer further reductions in sales revenue and the spiral will continue until either confidence grows
again or they go out of business.
Currency fluctuations caused by the crisis can also have a significant effect on company performance.
The euro has weakened against the dollar due to the crisis, therefore Eurozone companies purchasing
goods from the US face increased prices.
Agency issues
Multinational companies need to develop a financial planning framework in order to make sure that the strategic
objectives and competitive advantages are realised. Such a financial planning framework will include ways of
raising capital and risks related to overseas operations and the repatriation of profits.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
Multinational companies are able to borrow funds on the euro currency markets and on the euro bonds markets.
When a company decides to raise funds from the local equity market, the company must comply with the
requirements of the local exchanges for listing.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Litigation risks
Businesses that fail to comply with the law run the risk of legal penalties and accompanying bad publicity.
Companies should comply with best practice and being responsive to ethical concerns.
Companies should also implement systems to make sure that the company keeps abreast of changes in the
law, and staffs are kept fully informed. Internal procedures may be designed to minimise the risks from legal
action.
⚫ Cultural risk
Where a business trades with, or invests in, a foreign country additional uncertainty is introduced by the
existence of different customs, laws and language.
It is important for companies to be familiar with the following areas.
The cultures and practices of customers and consumers in individual markets
The media and distribution systems in overseas markets
The different ways of doing business in overseas markets
The degree to which national cultural differences matter for the product concerned
The degree to which a firm can use its own 'national culture' as a selling point The balance between local
and expatriate staff must be managed.
Using expatriate staffs may have the following advantages
Better technical skills
Easier to be controlled by senior managers
Better able than locals to communicate with the corporate centre
Know more about the firm overall
Disadvantages of using expatriate in overseas markets
Cost more
Culture shock
Require language training and cultural training
Have less knowledge of the country
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Word
⚫ Agency issues
Agency issues can be observed in all types and at all levels of organisations, for example between managers
at headquarters and managers of subsidiaries.
Solutions to agency problems can be
Separate the ratification and monitoring of managerial decisions from their initiation and implementation.
Managerial compensation packages, which align the interests of top executives with shareholders and
the interests of subsidiary managers to those of head office.
A multiple of corporate governance mechanism work in unison.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Other important study guide
kd calculation
Convexity
1.3 Convexity
⚫ It is possible to find two bonds with similar durations and similar yields but which behave differently as yields
change.
⚫ The coupon bond shows clear advantages over the zero coupon bond.
⚫ Convexity measures the change in modified duration as yield changes.
Example: 2017-Jun-Q4
2. Dividend policy
2.1 Objective of a firm’s dividend policy
When deciding how much cash to distribute to shareholders, the company directors must bear in mind that the
firm’s objective is to maximize shareholder value.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Other important study guide
⚫ Practical influences
Brokerage fees
If shareholders have a preference for some current income and are paid low dividends or none at all, they
may have to sell some of their shares, which will reduce their wealth, as they will incur brokerage fees. If
shareholders have a preference for capital gains and they were paid a large dividend they would also
incur brokerage fees when they re-invest the dividends received.
Issue cost of new funds
If a company has a positive NPV project to finance, it is usually cheaper to fund projects via retained
earnings, as most forms of external finance involve incurring considerable issue costs. When shares are
issued in addition to the administration fees, they would be professional advisers' fees, underwriting costs
and prospectus publishing costs. This can be 3% or more of the fees raised.
The tax efficient
An individual shareholder will usually have a firm preference of how he/she wants his/her return to be
split between dividends and capital gains, as both are subject to different tax rules e.g. annual exemption
for capital gains. The preference will depend on the individual's tax position.
Shareholders are attracted to firms that follow dividend policies consistent with their tax planning
objectives.
Dividend Signaling
In the real world shareholders do not have perfect information about the investments. Research suggests
that the dividend policy of the company gives a signal to shareholders about the company's performance.
An unexpected change in dividends is regarded as a signal of how the directors view the future prospects
of the company i.e. cut for whatever reason - financial problems.
Conclusion
Dividend policy should be based on investor preferences for cash dividends now or capital gains in future
from enhanced share value resultant from re-investment into projects with a positive NPV.
Policy
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Other important study guide
⚫ Constraints
Getting approval by general meeting
Company may pay too high a price for the share
The shareholders may feel they have received too small a price
Might be seen as a failure of the current management/company to make better use of the funds through
reinvesting
Dividend policy
2.5 Dividend policy in multinational companies
An additional factor for multinationals is that they have more than one dividend policy to consider
⚫ Dividends to external shareholders
⚫ Dividends between group companies, facilitating the movement of profits and funds within the group
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Other important study guide
Inflation Growth
Restrictive Blocked
covenants remittance
Dividend capacity
Profitability Access to other
affected by
source of fund
How the parent company might try to avoid such a block on remittances
Blocked remittances
Need to circumvent
Parallel loans (currency swaps), whereby the foreign subsidiary lends cash to the subsidiary of another
company requiring funds in the foreign country. In return the parent company would receive the loan of
an equivalent amount of cash in the home country from the other subsidiary’s parent company.
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ACCA- Advanced Financial Management (AFM) -Revision Other important study guide
⚫ Formula
$m
Operating cash flow X
Add: dividend from joint ventures X
Less: net interest paid (X)
Less: taxation (X)
Gross free cash flow to equity (before capital expenditure) X
Example: 2013-Jun-Q4
3. Performance Evaluating
⚫ Profitability
Gross profit margin; ROCE
Sales margin Asset turnover
⚫ Liquidity
Current ratio; Quick ratio
⚫ Risk
Financial gearing Interest cover
Example: 2015-Jun-Q2
2017-Dec-Q3
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