1. Consider one- dimensional steady-state heat conduction in the slab.

Estimate heat flux (q (𝑊/𝑚2 )) in terms of point namely the mean,

MAP, and SD using offline Bayesian method with no prior. The 𝑇𝐿
experimental temperatures at various location are shown in Table 1.
The length (L) and the thermal conductivity (k) of the slab are 70 1 2 3 4 5 6
q
mm and 14.4 W/mK, respectively. The boundary temperature ( 𝑇𝐿 )
is 10 ℃. Take uncertainty (𝜎 ) in thermocouples is ±0.1 ℃.
Generate 11 samples of the heat flux between 900 and 1500 L
𝑊 𝑚2 , with step 60 𝑊 𝑚2 .
Table 1 The experimental temperature at various locations
Location of x
thermocouples 𝑥, m Experimental temperature, ℃
(K-type) Fig. 1 Geometry of slab.

1 0.01 15.46
2 0.02 14.59
3 0.03 12.66
4 0.04 12.55
5 0.05 11.57
6 0.06 11.42
 Forward model: Table 1: The simulated temperature 𝑇𝑠𝑖𝑚 at six locations.

q 𝑥1 = 0.01 𝑥2 = 0.02 𝑥3 = 0.03 𝑥4 = 0.04 𝑥5 = 0.05 𝑥6 = 0.07

𝑑2 𝑇
=0 900 13.75 13.13 12.50 11.88 11.25 10.63
𝑑𝑥 2
960 14.00 13.33 12.67 12.00 11.33 10.67
𝑇 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏
1020 14.25 13.54 12.83 12.13 11.42 10.71
After applying boundary
conditions, 1080 14.50 13.75 13.00 12.25 11.50 10.75

−𝑞 𝑞𝐿 1140 14.75 13.96 13.17 12.38 11.58 10.79

𝑇= 𝑥 + 𝑇𝐿 +
𝑘 𝑘 1200 15.00 14.17 13.33 12.50 11.67 10.83
−𝑞
𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 = , 1260 15.25 14.38 13.50 12.63 11.75 10.88
𝑘
𝑞𝐿 1320 15.50 14.58 13.67 12.75 11.83 10.92
𝑏 = 𝑇𝐿 +
𝑘
1380 15.75 14.79 13.83 12.88 11.92 10.96

1440 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00

1500 16.25 15.21 14.17 13.13 12.08 11.04

Table 2: The experimental Table 3: The temperature difference 𝑇𝑠𝑖𝑚 − 𝑇𝑒𝑥𝑝 at six locations.
temperature 𝑇𝑒𝑥𝑝 at six
locations. q 𝑥1 = 0.01 𝑥2 = 0.02 𝑥3 = 0.03 𝑥4 = 0.04 𝑥5 = 0.05 𝑥6 = 0.07
x, m 𝑇𝑒𝑥𝑝 , ℃ 900 -1.71 -1.47 -0.16 -0.68 -0.32 -0.795

0.01 15.46 960 -1.46 -1.26 0.01 -0.55 -0.24 -0.753

0.02 14.59 1020 -1.21 -1.05 0.17 -0.43 -0.15 -0.712

0.03 12.66 1080 -0.96 -0.84 0.34 -0.30 -0.07 -0.670
0.04 12.55 1140 -0.71 -0.63 0.51 -0.17 0.01 -0.628
0.05 11.57 1200 -0.46 -0.42 0.67 -0.05 0.10 -0.587
0.06 11.42 1260 -0.21 -0.22 0.84 0.07 0.18 -0.545

1320 0.04 -0.01 1.01 0.20 0.26 -0.503

1380 0.29 0.20 1.17 0.33 0.35 -0.462

1440 0.54 0.41 1.34 0.45 0.43 -0.420

1500 0.79 0.62 1.51 0.57 0.51 -0.378

 Table 4: Calculation of S, likelihood density function, and PPDF.

6 q 𝑆 𝑃1 𝑃2 𝑃3 𝑃𝑃𝐷𝐹
2
𝑆= 𝑇𝑠𝑖𝑚,𝑖 − 𝑇𝑒𝑥𝑝,𝑖
900 6.2860 3.18E-137 2.86E-134 4.07E-132 1.11E-112
𝑖=1
𝑆
−
2 960 4.6369 2.05E-101 1.97E-98 1.82E-96 7.19E-77
𝑃1 = 𝑒 2𝜎
𝑆
− 2 1020 3.3038 1.82E-72 1.86E-69 1.03E-67 6.39E-48
𝑃2 = 𝑞𝑒 2𝜎
𝑆 1080 2.2866 2.22E-50 2.40E-47 7.06E-46 7.81E-26
2 −2𝜎2
𝑃3 = 𝑞 − 𝑞𝑚 𝑒
𝑆 1140 1.5854 3.74E-35 4.27E-32 5.23E-31 1.31E-10
− 2
𝑞𝑒 2𝜎
𝑞𝑚 = 𝑆 1200 1.2002 8.66E-27 1.04E-23 2.93E-23 3.04E-02
−
𝑒 2𝜎2
𝑆 1260 1.1310 2.76E-25 3.48E-22 9.20E-25 9.70E-01
2 −2𝜎2
𝑞 − 𝑞𝑚 𝑒
𝜎𝑞 2 = 𝑆
1320 1.3777 1.21E-30 1.60E-27 4.63E-27 4.25E-06
− 2
𝑒 2𝜎 1380 1.9404 7.32E-43 1.01E-39 1.09E-38 2.57E-18

1440 2.8191 6.08E-62 8.76E-59 2.01E-57 2.14E-37

𝑞𝑚 = 1258. 17𝑊 𝑚2 1500 4.0138 6.96E-88 1.04E-84 4.07E-83 2.44E-63

𝜎𝑞 2 = 106.19 𝑊 𝑚2 2 ∑ 2.85E-25 3.58E-22 3.02E-23

𝜎𝑞 = 10.3 𝑊 𝑚2
𝑀𝐴𝑃 = 1260 𝑊 𝑚2
  Comparison of the estimated parameter (q) using LSR and
Bayesian method with no prior
1.20E+00
Bayesian method
1.00E+00 Parameter LSR
(no prior)
8.00E-01
q (𝑊 𝑚2 ) 1206.7 1258.17
PPDF

6.00E-01

4.00E-01

2.00E-01

0.00E+00
800 1000 1200 1400 1600

q, 𝑊 𝑚2

Fig. 2 PPDF with no prior.