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A tool for estimating remaining life time of a power transformer

Conference Paper · May 2017

DOI: 10.1109/MERCon.2017.7980513

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 A Tool For Estimating Remaining Life Time of a
Power Transformer
W.D.A.G.Hillary, K.L.I.M.P.B. Jayarathna, L.I.Ranasinghe, S.M.B.P. Samarakoon, N.M.T.N.Rathnayake, J. R. Lucas
and R. Samarasinghe
Department of Electrical Engineering
University of Moratuwa,
Moratuwa, Sri Lanka
{antongayan , pramodjayarathna, lahiruni6, bhagzz91, regetipe}@gmail.com, {lucas, rasara}@elect.mrt.ac.lk

thermal and chemical properties of them. Nowadays, there are

Abstract: Power transformers are vital assets in
electric power systems, as they are essential in maintaining
a reliable supply and very high in cost. Nowadays, society
has become more and more dependent on the availability
of power, putting pressure on the reliability, availability
and cost efficiency of power supply. These assets operate
under high electric stresses and although transformers are
extremely energy efficient, the dissipated heat is a limiting
factor for the maximum loading of power transformers.
The insulating medium must be capable of dealing with
large electric stresses, strong electro-mechanical forces and
high temperatures. The life of a power transformer mainly
depends on the condition of the paper-oil insulation
system. Manufacturers often define the expected life of
power transformers to be between 25 and 40 years. Some
transformers in service are now approaching this age, and
it is important to estimate their remaining lifetime in order
to prevent premature shutdown of transformers. Knowing
the condition of the transformers is an essential factor to
make an economical decision for transformer replacement
and maintenances. This paper presents a mathematical
model to estimate the remaining life through assessment of
furfural content in the oil and degree of polymerization of
the insulating paper.
Key Words: Power Transformer; Remaining Life; Furfural
content; Degree of polymerization
I. INTRODUCTION
Power transformers play a vital role in maintaining reliable
and efficient electricity supply. In order to provide an
uninterrupted power supply, much attention has to be paid on
the ageing condition and the remaining life of the
transformers. The life of a power transformer mainly depends
on the condition of the paper-oil insulation system. The oil-
impregnated paper provides electrical insulation between
windings and serves as a mechanical barrier between the
individual windings and between winding layers. Therefore,
paper is a critical factor in paper-oil insulation. A law paper
quality leads to premature insulation degradation, which in
turn can lead to transformer failure. The aging of the
transformer insulation paper causes changes in electrical,
many condition monitoring techniques available for
transformers and some measured conditions such as
temperature, moisture, furan content have a direct relationship
with transformer insulation paper which can be interpret
mathematically. Furan compounds are generally recognized as
the most practicably obtainable reliable indicator of cellulose
insulation degradation. Five furans featured in analyses are: 5
hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HOM), furfuryl alcohol (FOL), 2-
furfural (FFA), 2-acetylfuran (AF) and 5-methyl-2-furfural
(MF). 2-furfural or Furfural is the most widely used insulation
ageing factor of this group [1].
Degree of polymerization (DP) is average number of
Cellulose molecules in the Cellulose chain. It is a best
indication value to predict the actual transformer age. For a
new transformer DP is around 1200 and when transformer
insulation paper reaches its end of life it falls below 200 [2].
It can be measured accurately by performing chemical tests for
insulation paper sample. However, these tests are costly and
require the transformer to be opened which is not practical
under operating conditions. Furan content has an exponential
relationship with DP value and this relationship can be
predicted by using different methods. Currently the
Chengdong and Depablo methods are widely used in the
power industry to calculate the DP values of transformer paper
insulation using Furan analysis [3].
It was observed that there is a direct relationship between
Furan and other transformer test results such as DGA results,
moisture in paper, temperature, age and capacity of the
transformer. In this paper, a mathematical model was created
based on Furan and its relationship with the other factors, and
the Depablo equation was used for calculating the DP. The
model was further developed to estimate the remaining life of
a transformer by using the DP Vs. lifetime graph, calculating
the number of years where it will take DP to reach 200. Using
the estimating software developed based on this mathematical
model, power system engineers can make decisions on
operation and maintenance of power transformers.
The outline of the paper is as follows. Section II
summarizes some important aspects on transformer testing and
condition monitoring techniques, and details of the factors
affecting a transformer lifetime. The mathematical model
developed, the results obtained using the model and estimating
the remaining life of a power transformer using the
mathematical model are discussed in detail in sections III, IV
and V, and section VI concludes the paper.
II. TRANSFORMER TESTING AND CONDITION
MONITORING TECHNIQUES
A. Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA)
The two principal causes of gas formation within an
operating transformer are electrical disturbances and thermal
decomposition. There are several techniques for detecting
those gases and DGA is recognized as the most informative
method. Insulating mineral oil consists mixture of
hydrocarbon molecules and when electrical, thermal or corona
faults involve, the carbon-hydrogen and carbon-carbon bonds
are broken and resulting the formation of gases. Generally the
gasses found in the oil in service are hydrogen (H2), methane
(CH4), Ethane (C2H6), ethylene (C2H4), acetylene (C2H3),
carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen (N2)
and oxygen (O2). All these gases except oxygen and nitrogen
may be formed during the degradation of the insulation [4].
DGA is performed according to the ASTM D3612 or IEC
60567 standards. The gas samples are analysed by taking
different gas ratios and evaluate the probable fault type
according to the concentration of different gases [5].
B. Moisture content of the paper
Moisture content of the paper is determined using the
Oommen curves. Oommen’s method is based on the principle
that the equilibrium curves represent the same relative
saturation for the oil and for the paper at the same temperature
[6]. According to the data collection, only the moisture content
of the oil was available. Therefore using Oommen curve, the
moisture content of the paper was obtained.
C. Top oil Temperature
The increase of top oil temperature of a transformer affects
its lifetime. The temperature variation mainly depends on the
loading current. Therefore, when the loading current increases
the top oil temperature increases and it degrades the paper
insulation and cellulose degradation caused by overheating is
irreversible. It is widely accepted that the insulation
degradation approximately doubles with every 6°C increase of
temperature [7]. The mechanical properties of paper such as
tensile strength and elasticity degrade when the cellulose chain
gets shorter. Eventually the paper becomes brittle and is not
capable of withstanding short circuit forces and decreases
transformer lifetime.
There are many other condition monitoring techniques
such as insulation resistance testing, partial discharge, etc.
D. Selection of factors affecting transformer life time
From the parameters discussed above, it is possible to
select parameters which can be used to predict the ageing
condition of paper insulation in a transformer using work
carried out by past researches and with the aid of
mathematical analysis.
Transformer insulation primarily comprises of various
types of insulation such as oil and pressboard barriers in
winding to winding, winding(s) to ground, lead to lead, lead to
ground spaces and winding insulation, etc [8]. Therefore, the
insulation isn’t just comprising with paper/pressboard
insulation but also with the insulation fluid. Hence insulation
resistance gives a combined value of both paper and oil
insulation which cannot be distinguish practically in
transformer. Therefore, leakage current values cannot be used
as parameter to predict insulation deterioration.
Considering the oil testing, carbon content, i.e. the amount
of concentration of CO2 and CO is a direct measurement of
paper oil deterioration. Paper insulation is a long chain of
cellulose molecules and when it deteriorates these two gases
are generated as by products other than hydrocarbons (such as
C2H6, C2H2, CH4, CH4, C2H4, C2H4) and O2. However, all
power generation transformers in the considered sample are
free breathing transformers and carbon content inside a
transformer is not only generated due to insulation
deterioration but also some amount of carbon has entered from
the atmospheric air. Therefore, carbon content, cannot be
included in the mathematical model.
The insulation properties can also degrade due to the
presence of moisture in the oil-paper system. This moisture
may be generated inside the transformer due to degradation of
the oil-paper insulation or there may be ingress of moisture
due to free breathing arrangements [9]. Other than moisture,
Oxygen is another primary agent that degrade cellulose
insulation. Heat acts as catalysts and accelerates the reactions
in producing various oil-degradation products [10]. Therefore,
moisture content in paper, oxygen in insulation oil and top oil
temperature are considered as the main parameters in this
study as the factors affecting the ageing of power transformers
and the mathematical modelof the estimator tool is built based
on these parameters . Irrespective of filtering processes, total
amount of gases produced inside the transformer increases
with aging and as gas amount is dependent on the size of the
transformer, both transformer capacity and total gas are also
considered. Furthermore, breakdown strength is affected by
the production of gases and hence the breakdown voltage is
also considered.
The most vital parameter when analysing the transformer
oil is furan content. Furanic compounds are only formed
during paper aging unlike other gasses which can enter in to
transformer due to other activities such as partial discharges,
faults, overheating [11]. Therefore, furan content analysis is
highly acceptable compared to other gas analyses.
 Degree of Polymerization (DP) is defined as the average
number of cellulose molecules in the cellulose chain. It is an
indication of actual transformer age. For a new transformer, it
is around 1100 and when transformer insulation paper reaches
its end of life it falls below 200[12]. It can be measured
accurately by performing a chemical test for insulation paper
sample. However, this test is costly and requires the
transformer to be opened.
Furan content has exponential relationship with DP value.
This relation can be predicted by using different methods.
Two of those methods which are widely used in the industry
are Chengdong and Depablo methods [2].
Nowadays, furan content is used as a parameter to measure
DP. This is performed by measuring furan content in a
transformer oil sample by high performance liquid
chromatography (HPCL) [12] .This tests are expensive and
due to instability of furan contents in different environments,
results taken by these test cannot be used for direct diagnosis
[8]. Therefore, a novel method to predict furan content using
other low cost condition monitoring parameters, thus to
predict insulation aging condition is described in this paper.
III. MATHEMATICAL MODEL
A. Proposed Mathematical Model
Condition monitoring data are collected for a fifty number of
3-phase transformers in different capacities ranging 60MVA
to 200MVA. Data of furan, age, moisture content in insulation
paper, temperature, oxygen content, total gas amount, capacity
in kVA, acidity and breakdown voltage are collected for the
same date.
Multiple linear regression technique is used to develop an
initial mathematical model. In order to use this technique, data
points should meet following basic assumptions [13].
Assumption 1: All the variables are distributed normally.
Assumption 2: Variance of the independent variable is
constant.
Initially Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is performed to
evaluate the significance of the selected parameters. Results
are shown in Fig. 1.
f GO2 = O2 (ppm)
Fig.1. Analysis of Variance of the selected parameters.
Where DF –degrees of freedom, SS-sum of squares between
groups (factor & errors), MS-mean squares are found by
dividing the sum of squares by the degrees of freedom, F -
calculate by dividing the factor MS by the error MS.
Initially a Hypothesis test was performed and check the
suitability of the data sample to perform the regression
analysis. The expected mathematical model is in the form of,
𝑌 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝑥 + 𝛽2 𝑥2 + 𝛽3 𝑥3
Null Hypothesis H0 : β0 = β1 = β2 = β3= 0
The null hypothesis states that all the coefficient values of
variables are equal to zero. The output F values are very high
and p values for every parameter is zero (for three decimal
points), and the null hypothesis is rejected. It indicates that
initial hypothesis test is significant and thereby at least one
parameter in the model is significant [14]. Therefore, multiple
linear regression analysis can be performed.
After ensuring that data sample satisfy necessary
requirements, linear regression technique is performed to test
data using commercially available software, Minitab 17 by
considering all the available variables. To check what
variables are more significant Stepwise selection regression
method was used. In the analysis significance level (α) is
taken as 0.15. During these processes variables such as break
down voltage and acidity were eliminated.
The stepwise selection technique has generated a
regression models with R-sq of 89.32%. In these results, the
factors explain approx. 89% of the variation in the furan
content. S indicates that the standard deviation between the
data points and the fitted values is approximately 0.21 units. A
lower S value of 0.21 further implies the resultant linear model
describes the response variable (Furan content) accurately
[14]. The regression line obtained using stepwise selection is
as follows.
𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 = −0.935 + 0.03018 × 𝑇 + 0.03399 × 𝐴 +
0.3883 × 𝑀 + 0.000048 × 𝐺𝑂2 −
0.000023 × 𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇 − 0.000007 × 𝐶 (1)
where, T=Temperature (C0)
A= Age (Years),
M = Moisture in ppr(%)
GTOT = Total Gas (ppm)
and C=capacity of transformer (KVA)
Now instead of using furan in the Depablo equation, above
derived (1) can be substituted. Therefore, DP value can be
obtained as follows.
1850
𝐷𝑃 =
−0.935 + 0.03018 × 𝑇 + 0.03399 × 𝐴 +
( 0.3883 × 𝑀 + 0.000048 × 𝐺𝑂2 − ) + 2.3
0.000023 × 𝐺𝑇𝑂𝑇 − 0.000007 × 𝐶
(2)
 In order to accept the linear regression model, residuals
should be normally distributed. Residual plots for Furans are
shown below in Fig. 2 for the derived model. Histogram of left
bottom implies that residuals are normally distributed. Further
the normal probability plot and verses fits plot is scattered
with no patterns and hence the variance is constant. Therefore
the two assumptions mentioned earlier are satisfied.

B. Results And Analysys

Furan results for the equation (1) and DP difference graphs

are shown below in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4.

This linear model has an average error for DP of 38 with

maximum DP error of 160. Even for a small difference of Fig. 2. Residual plots for furan contents.
furan, there is a significant DP difference for some values.
However, this linear mathematical model can still be used for
transformers with lower furan values. Such transformers are 1
Residuals of Furan vs Age
still in the early stage of their life time. Since transformer
lifetime decays with DP exponentially, during initial stage, it 0.5
has a high rate of change of DP. Therefore, even for a high DP
difference, the error of age is less. In order to reduce this high
0
difference, nonlinear regression method can be used.
0 10 20 30 40 50
IV. NONLINEAR MODEL -0.5

Highest amount of errors in the linear model occurs at the -1

range of 20 to 30 years of transformer lifetime. This period of Residuals of Furan(Stepwise)
a transformer lifetime is very crucial and hence identifying
failures and accurate prediction of the transformer lifetime is
vital. Remaining lifetime of a transformer can be predicted Fig.3.Residual of furan contents using stepwise method.
more accurately using a nonlinear mathematical model.
However, there are very few transformers in that sample
which has low furan values. Therefore a nonlinear DP Difference vs Age
mathematical model cannot be developed using the available 200
data sample for low furan values and the developed linear 150
model has to be used for such transformers. A specific furan
100
value of 0.6 is selected and a nonlinear model was developed
for transformers with furan is more than 0.6. Transformers 50
failure rate can be expressed using bathtub curve [16]. 0
At the initial stage, transformers have high probability of
failure with decreasing rate. During middle of the transformer -50 0 10 20 30 40 50
lifetime, the failure rate becomes lower and constant. In the -100
later years, the failure rate of transformers increases due to -150
wear of components including transformer insulation paper.
Therefore, a nonlinear mathematical model was used to -200
Dp Difference(Stepwise)
predict the transformer lifetime from middle to later years.
According to Depablo equation [1], DP of transformer
Fig.4.Degree of plolymerization vs age graph.
insulation paper is less than 638 when furan is 0.6 and
theoretical age should be more than 7.4 years according to 2.61472
𝐹𝑖𝑡1 = 1+𝑒 −(−0.600413 ∗ (𝐴 − 27.1046) − 2.12758 (3)
Ekenstam equation [2]. Hence the middle to final years of
transformer lifetime can be approximated using shape of
sigmoid function which has an exponential term. Following A linear regression was conducted for transformers with
figure shows fitted line plot for non-linear regression furan more than 0.6 to identify the significant parameters.
performed using standardized furan values. Transformers only When performing this linear regression, above regression
with furan value more than 0.6 were used here. The fitted line results were considered as one parameter.
plot in fig.5 proves that is a good initial approximation for Since Total gas has a significantly large p-value, it is not used
furan. for the nonlinear regression. Further breakdown voltage was
included in the nonlinear regression model since it has lower
p-value. After identifying the significant factors, a nonlinear
regression was performed to obtain a relationship between
furan and other parameters which are moisture in paper,
temperature, oxygen content, current age of the transformer,
breakdown voltage and capacity of the transformer. Resulted
model can be given as follows, which is further illustrated in
Fig. 5.
0.833911
FURFURALnew = 2.70995 − −
1 + 𝑒0.390266∗ (A − 27.0245)
3.42458 × 10−6 ∗ 𝐶 − 0.0181245 ∗ 𝐴 −
0.144663 ∗ 𝑀 − 0.0101996 ∗ 𝑇 −
5.48247 × 10−6 ∗ 𝐺𝑂2 + 0.00617537 ∗ 𝐵
(4)
Using residual plots, it can be observed that error for furan
values were significantly reduced compared to linear Fig. 5. Fitted line plot graph.
regression results as shown in Fig. 6. Using the furan values
obtained by nonlinear regression, DP values and DP difference
was calculated. DP difference Vs Transformer age is given in
Table 1. Now the maximum error is 21.

V. VALIDATION OF THE MODEL

In order to validate the model, another sample of data of 6
transformers was used. Furan is calculated using (4) and DP
difference is calculated by difference for Depablo equation as
follows.

1850 1850
𝐷𝑃 𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑐𝑒 = −
(𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑢𝑎𝑙) + 2.3 (𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙_𝑛𝑒𝑤) + 2.3
(5)
To quantify the agreement between the estimated and actual
data, the root mean square deviation (RMSD) was calculated Fig.6.Residual plots for Furfural values.
using (3).

𝑁
1 Take
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐷 = √ ∑(𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 − 𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 )2 the
𝑛 differe
𝑖=1 nce of
the
calculate Draw the
(6) furan base
time to
Find the reach
Obtain values curve for Remain
age for DP of
𝑁 data of a using DP vs
the 200 of
ing life
1 2 particular equation age
respectiv the
of the
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐷 = √ ∑(𝐹𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 ) transfor (4) and using
e DP base
transfo
𝑛 mer DP values
using
Ekensta
m
value curve
rmer
𝑖=1 and
Depablo equation
resulte
1 d age in
= √ ((−0.02176)2 + 0.0938652 + 0.0360012 + 0.2260742 + 0.0541322 + (−0.04607)2 ) the
𝑛 previou
s step
= 0.053118
The very low value of RMSD implies that the new model Fig. 7. Estimating remaining life using base curve method.
predicts the response accurately in general.
VI. FINDING REMAINING LIFE TIME calculate
Take the
furan Draw
differenc
There are mainly two methods to find the remaining lifetime Obtain values a
e of the
Remai
data of a using Plot negati ning
of transformers using the derived mathematical model, base particular equation DP ve
time to
reach DP
life of
transform (4) and vs expon the
curve method and new graph method, which are illustrated in er for few DP age ential
of 200 transf
and ormer
Fig. 7 and Fig. 8. New graph method is more accurate than years values
using
trend
line
current
age
base curve method. Modified Linear equation is used to Depablo
calculate data points of the graph.
Fig. 8. Estimating remaining life using new graph method.
 TABLE 1: DIFFERENCE IN DP VALUE FOR THE USED DATA SET.
Furan(A DP(Actual) Capacity Age Moisture TEMP. 𝑶𝟐 Breakdown Furan(Model) DP(model) DP Difference
ctual) in ppr(%) Voltage(kV)
(kVA) (oC) (ppm)
0.68 620.80537 60000 21 2.5 53 12319 43 0.658244 625.37096 -4.56559
0.61 635.73883 60000 24 2.1 56 32831 53 0.703865 615.87329 19.86554
1.139 613.39523 60000 43 3.4 36 16819.5 96 1.21545 606.15962 11.6988
0.86 585.44304 60000 27 1.9 56 15141 40 0.914132 575.58303 9.860006
0.716 613.39523 120000 22 1.8 45 29367.5 75 0.752001 606.15962 7.23561
0.665 623.94604 120000 25 1.5 56 13706 34 0.618929 633.79415 -9.84812

[2] P. V. Notingher et al., “Transformer board lifetime estimation using

VII. CONCLUSION
The reliability of a power system depends on the condition of
its critical assets and power transformers are vital component
in the power systems. Therefore, estimating the remaining
lifetime of power transformers is essential in order to maintain
a reliable supply. Ageing of transformers mainly depend on
the insulation system and hence quality of the insulation paper
is a vital factor for determining the remaining lifetime of
power transformers. Degree of polymerization is an important
parameter which directly expresses the quality of the
insulation paper. DP is normally determined using furan
analysis. Different types of relationships between DP and
furan are currently used in the power industry. The remaining
lifetime of a transformer can be calculated using DP.
However, the test that is conducted at present to determine
furan content is expensive and unstable in different
environments. Therefore, a mathematical model was
developed using multiple linear and nonlinear regression to
calculate furan content of a particular transformer and thereby
the remaining lifetime of a transformer.
The factors that directly affect the ageing of a transformer
were identified initially and used in developing the
mathematical model. Those factors are moisture content,
temperature, capacity of the transformer, oxygen content,
breakdown voltage and current age of the transformer. These
factors can be measured at relatively lower costs. A
mathematical model was developed to identify the correlation
between above factors and furan content. Then the DP value
was calculated using the resulted furan value and then
remaining lifetime of the transformer was calculated.
The developed mathematical model estimates the remaining
lifetime of a transformer accurately. It is important to prevent
the failures of power transformers to ensure the stability of the
power system. Therefore having an idea regarding the
remaining lifetime of a transformer is vital.
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