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Assessing
Assessing the drivers of change drivers of change
for cross-border supply chains
Ari-Pekka Hameri
Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, 741
Switzerland, and
Juha Hintsa Received October 2008
Revised September 2009
Cross-Border Research Association, Lausanne, Switzerland Accepted September 2009

Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to systematically document drivers of change and the implications they
will have on international supply chain management in the coming two decades.
Design/methodology/approach – This study was commissioned by the World Customs
Organization (WCO) at the end of June 2006. Because of increased trade volumes, emerging
complex supply networks and heightened security concerns, the WCO saw the need to assess future
trends and drivers in supply chain management. The Delphi method was applied to identify a set of
foreseeable drivers of change and to assess their predicted impact on global supply chain management
in the coming ten to 20 years. Based on a literature review of 150 recent publications and interviews
among 33 industry, academic and customs experts, a survey was designed and conducted to collect
current and potential change drivers in global supply chains. These drivers were compiled and
prioritized by an eclectic team of 12 specialists.
Findings – The main results of the study are strongly connected to strategic and operational supply
chain planning for the next ten to 20 years. They are related to increased off-shoring of operations
through truly global manufacturing, characterized by its intercontinental supply of materials;
increased product complexity with shorter product life cycles; increased importance of
business-to-government networking for operational and security efficiency; introduction of new
supply chain services integrating financial, physical and information flows leading to further
consolidation in the logistics markets; and the overall increase in risks and vulnerabilities in
international supply chains.
Originality/value – This paper provides a 360 degree view of the future of international supply
chain management and the challenges companies will face to compete in the twenty-first century
business environment.
Keywords Supply chain management, Delphi method, Globalization, Outsourcing, Change management
Paper type Research paper

Introduction
Global trade has reached new heights as much merchandise is sourced, refined and
distributed on an unprecedented scale (see Table I). This development means that
global supply chains are playing an ever increasingly crucial role in the
competitiveness of companies and national economies. Double-digit annual growth
International Journal of Physical
Distribution & Logistics Management
The authors would like to thank the World Customs Organization for their financial support, and Vol. 39 No. 9, 2009
for providing the researchers with a unique access to expert and data resources. Without their pp. 741-761
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
support, this research would not have taken place. The authors also thank the Swiss National 0960-0035
Science Foundation for their financial support in this research program. DOI 10.1108/09600030911008184
IJPDLM
Exports Imports
39,9 Value Annual percent change Value Annual percent change
2004 2000-2004 2003 2004 2004 2000-2004 2003 2004

World 8,907 9 17 21 9,250 9 17 21

North America 1,324 2 5 14 2,013 5 8 17
742 South and Central America 276 9 13 30 237 4 5 27
Europe 4,031 11 19 19 4,140 11 20 20
European Union (25) 3,714 11 19 19 3,791 10 20 19
Commonwealth of Independent
States 266 17 27 37 172 21 27 30
Russian Federation 183 15 27 35 96 21 25 27
Africa 232 12 25 32 212 13 22 27
Middle East 390 10 20 29 252 12 13 27
Asia 2,388 10 18 25 2,224 10 19 27
China 593 24 35 35 561 26 40 36
Table I. Japan 566 4 13 20 455 5 14 19
Growth (billion dollars Six East Asian traders 860 7 15 24 785 6 12 27
and percentage) in the
value of world Note: It should be mentioned at the outset that there are breaks in the continuity of the figures at the
merchandise trade by country and regional levels
region in 2004 Source: WTO (2005)

in trade across continents has put pressure not only on companies, but also on
regulatory bodies controlling and monitoring international trade flows. This
phenomenal growth sets the pretext for this article. It is time to evaluate the mega
trends and change drivers that are reshaping the current and future business
environment around global supply chains and the numerous different operators
involved.
In today’s global setting, supply chain management includes all movement and
storage of raw materials, work-in-process inventory, and finished goods from
point-of-origin to point-of-consumption. It is commonly quoted (CEMT, 2004) that for
every international end-to-end transaction there are up to 25 to 30 distinct business and
governmental actors directly involved in the transaction. This chain of interoperational
entities includes exporters, importers, freight forwarders, carriers, customs brokers,
inspection companies, insurance companies, banks, customs administrations, etc. In
general the parties involved are primary customers, i.e. sellers and buyers, transaction
facilitators, physical transportation companies, authorities and regulatory entities and,
finally, financial and insurance institutions.
Traditional supply chains have also turned into supplier networks, which are
clustered around certain technologies and services, i.e. channels. Boundaries between
companies are becoming transparent and the focus is on the management of strictly
defined interfaces, while new networking technologies make it easier for supplier
networks to continuously evolve. Numerous researchers (Ashkenas et al., 1995; Choi
et al., 2001; Frohlich and Westbrook, 2002; Chung et al., 2004) have come to the
conclusion that supply networks can enhance their performance through the
consolidation of the supplier base, can streamline the chain by removing unnecessary
steps, can speed up information flow by increasing information transparency in the
supply network and by establishing long-term partnerships with major suppliers. The
main development trends currently taking place in networked supply chain structures Assessing
are (Schilling, 2000; Williams et al., 2002; Garavelli, 2003; Hameri and Paatela, 2005): drivers of change
.
Industries are increasingly structured into supplier networks and products are
delivered through internationally networked operations. Traditional integrated
production units have been broken down into company networks, where
individual operators specialize in given value adding operations. Supplier
companies often serve more than one value network. 743
.
Supplier networks are continuously evolving through contraction and
expansion. The trend towards increasingly focused value adding operations
have led to highly specialized and larger networks.
.
Supplier networks with highly specialized and cost effective units create
business opportunities for companies with superior operational concepts
through the integration of distributed operations. These supplier networks
evolve through contraction.
Modern, global supply networks combine all three of these trends as they extend across
continents, host numerous different economic operators and supply the world with goods
and services in ever increasing volumes. This paper sets out to study the way in which
global supply chains will evolve as well as the roles that regulations and authorities will
play in the future shaping of the competitive business environment. The paper is
structured as follows. First, the methodology, sample and scope are discussed, followed
by the documentation of the key drivers shaping global supply chain management. The
key supply chain parameters are then detailed. These drivers and supply chain
parameters are further analyzed and the results of a workshop are documented. The data
compilation process is discussed and its results are represented. Conclusions critically
assess the outcome of the Delphi-method and avenues for futher research are provided.

Research questions, methodology and scope

This study was commissioned by the World Customs Organization (WCO) at the end
of June 2006. Due to increasing trade volumes, emerging complex supply networks and
heightened security concerns, the WCO wanted to assess the strategic development
needs of its customs administrations for the coming two decades by reviewing the
main trends in global supply chain management. The research questions probing that
ten to 20 year period were:
Q1. What are the main change drivers for international supply chain
management, i.e. key trends and phenomena, which cannot be influenced
by decisions from single companies and supply chains?
Q2. What are the main international/cross-border supply chain connection
parameters, which are likely to be influenced by the change drivers?
Q3. What are the practical implications of the forseeable changes in the
international supply chain parameters, caused by the key change drivers, for
the coming ten to 20 years?
To find concrete answers to these research questions we applied the Delphi method,
which is often defined by referring to the seminal work by Linstone and Turoff (1975) as
an approach for structuring a group communication process so that the process is
IJPDLM effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex issue.
39,9 Despite the numerous interpretations of this versatile technique (Mullen, 2003), all
members of the group share the eclectic expertise to project future trends with partial
anonymity, iteration, feedback and consensus. But in practical implementation, as Okoli
and Pawlovski (2004) indicate, many studies have not adopted a systematic approach to
conduct a Delphi study. Guidelines for the process of selecting appropriate experts are
744 not necessarily respected. The method has also evolved into different versions, as many
Delphi studies focus on purely forecasting issues. A variant, called Argument Delphi
(Kuusi, 1999; Kuusi and Meyer, 2002), focuses on the production of relevant arguments to
obtain several well-founded opinions, and viewpoints that the expert panelists disagree
upon. The approach applied here respects the common features of the Delphi method and
extends to arguments that are later evaluated in detail. The study was executed in the
following chronological order and rounds of Delphi:
(1) An extensive literature review was performed using the main electronic
academic archives, including those searching through daily business journals.
Numerous key words were used. Citation and referencing tools were also used
to understand the publication networks around different topics attracting the
attention of the researchers. In short, the main issues that emerged from the
review phase were related to supply chain performance and cost cutting;
information sharing and data transparency; collaboration, partnerships and
related tools enabling inter-organizational communication; globalization and
cross-border supply chains with multi-tier structures; technologies related to
better tracking, protection and management of cargo flows.
(2) The literature review covering the main issues led to the development of the
semi-structured questionnaire for interviewing the 33 experts (see Table II) in
the field of international trade and supply chain management. These experts
represent several manufacturing, logistics, technology and trade services
sectors, as well as customs, academia and other international organizations.
The outcome of these interviews, the transcripts, was used to create a
comprehensive list of change drivers affecting the global supply chains over the
next ten to 20 years. The same approach was used to document the key supply
chain parameters that will remain vital for efficient supply chain management,
within the context of international, cross-border supply chains.
(3) A workshop was organized involving 12 experts (see Table III) with no overlap
with the 33 experts of the previous step, from various fields to participate in the
compilation of 14 supply chain change drivers and 44 supply chain parameters,
each of which were connected and prioritized by the experts. The final supply
chain model for the twenty-first century was carved out from this and the
possible practical implications for future strategic and operational supply chain
planning were documented.
The expert panelists knew the names of the other participants. However, respondents
were guaranteed anonymity in relation to responses they provided at every stage. Each
expert produced epistemic rational arguments and compared different future options
from his or her personal point of view. The challenge for managing the Delphi process
was mainly in the dissemination of the results and assignments in a neutral manner.
There were four vital factors in the success of the Delphi process: the selection of the
 Assessing
E-no. Sector Country
drivers of change
E1 Oil production and distribution UK
E2 Semiconductors SG
E3 Engineering, multi-sector US
E4 Automotive US
E5 Aluminium CH 745
E6 Mobile phones FI
E7 Consumer goods BE
E8 Semiconductors NL
E9 Shipper association CH
E10 Customs and trade services CH
E11 Customs and trade services UK
E12 Express carrier BE
E13 Express carrier US
E14 Trade automation US
E15 Logistics venture capital CH
E16 RFID technologies IT
E17 Express carrier US
E18 Postal service US
E19 Bank, trade finance UK
E20 World Customs Organization BE
E21 World Customs Organization BE
E22 World Customs Organization BE
E23 World Customs Organization BE
E24 World Customs Organization BE
E25 World Customs Organization BE
E26 World Customs Organization BE
E27 World Customs Organization BE
E28 World Customs Organization BE
E29 UN organization CH
E30 University – supply chain CH
E31 University – supply chain CH Table II.
E32 University – supply chain CH The 33 experts
E33 University – supply chain CH interviewed

expert panel; the anonymous and discrete argumentation to and among the expert
panel; the creation of meaningful questions and future statements; the structured and
systematic evaluation of these statements.
The broad scope of the study concerned global supply chain management and the
driving forces behind its evolution for the coming decades. This being a very broad
scope for the study, some limitations were integrated. The following issues were left
out of the research scope:
.
Macroeconomics: this study is essentially about international trade and supply
chain structures and operations, not about macroeconomic models, forecasts, etc.
. Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs): this study does not focus on specific
challenges and issues SMEs face in international supply chains. However, many of
the study findings and conclusions also apply to SMEs, and they can benefit from
the study by improving their long-term product/service and supply chain planning
to better match the environment and needs in their own market segments.
 39,9

746

Table III.
IJPDLM

The 12 expert panelists

W-no. Sector Co Supply chain experience Years of experience

W1 Insurance FI Supply chain crime prevention, focus on factories

and warehouses 7
W2 European Commission BE National and European wide transportation and
logistics policies . 20
W3 Management consulting CH Focus on chemical industry supply chains, and
REACH regulations . 10
W4 Management consulting CH Focus on customs and trade compliance matters in
international supply chains . 10
W5 Trade facilitation expert UK Freight forwarder in Asia; leading trade facilitation
expert in Europe . 10
W6 University – supply chains CH A well known supply chain consultant and
professor, specialized in pulp and paper, telecom;
luxury goods, etc. supply chains . 20
W7 Defense threats analyst US Military logistics specialist . 15
W8 Logistics IN Freight forwarder, specialist in port infrastructure
analysis and development 5
W9 Customs and trade services CH Pre-shipment inspection specialist; supply chains in
developing countries . 15
W10 Customs expert UK “Seen all – done all” customs expert, focus on
international affairs 40 (retired)
W11 University – supply chains CH Supply chain services, warehousing and
transportation management experience; PhD in
supply chain security management 4
W12 University – supply chains NL Supply chain management assistant professor, focus
on intermodal supply chains, passing through Port
of Rotterdam . 10
 .
Customs laws and regulations: the study does not cover in any detail the customs Assessing
legal system. The purpose of this study is to take a look at the future aspect of drivers of change
trade and logistics. Responding to these changes from regulatory, organizational
and operational points of view is a topic for future study.
The Delphi-method is not without limitations. The common issue is in manipulated
consensus, i.e. the results do not hold the best judgment, but a compromised position.
This may be the result of non-objective monitoring of the research process and/or 747
biased expert panel that does not sufficiently represent a broad spectrum of the
population to assess the research questions. To tackle these common pitfalls of the
method, the panel was carefully chosen to cover all aspects of supply chain
management. However, in some areas (technology providers), the representation was
weaker than in others (regulatory bodies). The research process monitors were aware
of this, and this unbalance was taken into account while mediating proposals,
comments and assessments. To maintain objectivity, strict documentation policies
with full transparency and complete feedback loops were applied throughout the
research process. The overall process took three months, which gave all participants
time for in-depth reflection and contemplation.

Change drivers
Among the main driving forces was continuing globalization in trade and supply
chains, in terms of global markets, global products, and global manufacturing
(Mattsson, 2003; Ghemawat, 2007). Despite being a mega-trend, factors, which could
lead to more regional and even local trade and supply chains, should be explored in
future (Crone and Roper, 2001). Issues leading the development in this direction were
related to higher energy prices, tighter security, diversified consumer demands etc.
(Choi and Krause, 2006). Globalization is an ever-present phenomenon. However local,
environmentally friendly and efficient supply chains will maintain their vital role in
local economies even though driving forces may be shaped by forces other than those
that are purely market defined (Linton et al., 2007; Vachon and Klassen, 2006).
Fundamentally, the customer will maintain the leading edge. It is the development of
values among end-customers which will direct consumption and those companies that
best comply with these trends will be the future winners (Sridharan et al., 2005).
The quest for lower cost sourcing, manufacturing, logistics and other operations, i.e.
the aim to reach the required performance, quality and/or service levels at the lowest
possible cost, will continue in the future (Quin, 1999). To accomplish higher profits
through lower costs and/or higher revenues remains to be one of the competitive
strategies of manufacturing companies (Ülkü et al., 2005). The former logic of
economies of scale and low cost will prevail, although agile and innovative companies
will maintain their role in global economies. The more complex and knowledge
intensive the products, the more room the company has to maneuver in sourcing.
However, once the originally innovative products become commodities, the scale and
cost based competition, be it energy, raw material or labor cost driven, will affect
global sourcing decisions (Hoecht and Trott, 2006). By so doing, companies need to
maintain high profiles and standards, thus good corporate citizenship is seen to play an
ever increasingly significant part in future image building and competitiveness.
The skills needed to run the global supply chains of the future will require more
diverse skills than existing ones. Supply chain management functions are likely to by
IJPDLM higher priority in corporate hierarchy and more measures will be required to train
39,9 supply chain experts, both at strategic and operational levels (Giunipero et al., 2006).
Globally operating companies will especially need to complement their current supply
chain organizations with skills related to regulatory and security expertise to better
face future challenges stemming from global sourcing and increased trade volumes
(Sheu et al., 2006).
748 Collaboration and networking between all business and governmental actors in
international supply chains was seen to be a key success factor for future supply
chains. Automated data collection, managing information in complex networks,
providing parallel data transparency and data security, amongst others, will be the
basic requirements for efficient collaboration and networking (Bailey and Francis,
2008). In particular, better relationship management between trade and customs was
seen as a key priority for the future (Verwaal and Donkers, 2003; van Hoek, 2002). This
can be achieved by further streamlining customs operations and trade-customs
interfacing. Understanding the supply chain as a value chain must be extended to the
regulatory bodies. As in today’s advanced supply chains, controls and data
transparency extends across organizational boundaries. In the future, this
development has to include regulatory bodies and customs. Collaboration with
regulators and governments also entails global and corporate level tax planning, which
may also affect the shaping of future supply chains.
In relation to networking, several supply chain actors appear to have the potential to
increase their service offerings in future supply chains. This would especially concern
logistics service providers (LSPs), technology service providers and financial
institutions (Mason et al., 2007). Following the overall outsourcing trend, where the
focus is on core competences and the need for “trusted third parties” in international
supply chains, these players have to be integrated into the supply and delivery flows of
the global trade. Innovative service providers will play a role in efficient and global
supply chains.
In addition to these main themes, multiple external phenomena and factors will keep
on driving changes in international supply chains, e.g. several force majeure issues
were noted, such as natural disasters, epidemics, terrorist attacks, etc. Following the
previously described research procedure and the interview transcript analysis, which
was submitted to interviewees for verification, a detailed list of 14 change drivers was
finally established in a non-prioritized order:
(1) Business ethics, good corporate citizenship: transparency and regulatory
compliance will have ever increasing role in successful operating models for the
global companies of the future.
(2) Customs regulations compliance: interfaces between different supply chain
players and customs administrations are to improve as supply chains become
ever more complex and global.
(3) Consumer demands and wishes: consumer finances and will finance future
suppliers that can best meet their expectations, be it cost, quality and value wise
satisfaction.
(4) Corporate taxation schemes: the parameters related to taxation in various
countries continue to impact component sourcing, factory location and
geography related decisions.
 (5) Energy concerns: the beginning of the new millennium has already indicated Assessing
that energy sources and prices strongly affect the performance of global supply drivers of change
and delivery processes.
(6) Environmental concerns and regulations: Environmental issues with emission
quotas will reshape both how supply chains are structured and how companies
will seek energy efficient manufacturing and transportation solutions.
(7) Global pandemics and natural hazards: potentially devastating pandemics such 749
as avian flu and earthquakes are threats, which have to be considered when
planning supply chain structures and contingencies in the future.
(8) Information and data management complexities: the apparent increase in
supply chain network complexity will challenge information management on a
global scale with many players involved.
(9) Internet and e-commerce technologies: timely and correct information on
operations continues to be the key to efficient supply chain operations, this
means that Internet related services and trading platforms will have an ever
increasing role in coming decades.
(10) Manufacturing and low cost labor: manufacturing companies continue to be
driven by scale and lower cost, which continues to change the supply chain
structures and makes supply chain management all the more challenging.
(11) New technologies for physical operations: various technological means to track,
detect and control global material flows will develop further and their
application will become commonplace.
(12) Raw material concerns: continued global growth has led to a surge in raw
material prices and companies exploring and refining natural resources will
play a more important role in the global economy.
(13) Security concerns and regulations: security issues have gained significant
momentum since the events of 9/11. This trend will continue into the future and
complementary and dedicated regulatory, (in)voluntary, programs to improve
global security will shape the global business environment.
(14) Technical trade barriers: governments and economic areas may have increasing
incentives to regulate local and/or regional trade in order to control the impact
of globalization.

Supply chain parameters

The quest for outlining the main supply chain parameters was also similar to that of
the valuation and documentation of the key change drivers. By carefully analyzing the
main supply chain models proposed by various scholars and expert bodies, the expert
team first listed the main themes and then the detailed parameters that should have an
impact on efficient global supply chains. The following section is a discussion on the
main themes with links to relevant literature prior to listing all of the 44 supply chain
parameters detected in the context of international, cross-border supply chains.
Among the several divergent SCM paradigms and methodologies, just-in-time
manufacturing principles were selected as the most relevant for the future (Chan and
Chan, 2005). In fact, most of the different paradigms largely stem from Just-in-time
philosophies. Valuable issues are at the very core of Just-in-time: relentless and
IJPDLM continuous reduction of waste and lead times, reliable and punctual delivery
39,9 performance and order fulfillment. These will remain at the core of efficient supply
chain operations now and in the future (Fullerton and McWatters, 2001). Just-in-time
was linked with lean manufacturing approaches, which was also seen to gain
momentum and bring to the fore its message of waste reduction. The concept of
extended enterprise was also discussed, as corporations need to extend their control
750 and partnering routines across company boundaries (Stock et al. 2000). The future will
also emphasize focused/specialized factories, mass customization and supply chain
resilience as important management paradigms for the future.
After discussions with the experts the following four supply chain planning and
management tools came on top of the list: customer relationship management, sales
forecasting and demand planning tools; supply planning and supply-demand
balancing tools; supply chain event management systems; and supply chain network
design tools. For supply chain technologies, RFID and satellite tracking, both of which
are already used today, are still commonly seen as expensive technologies (Dutta et al.,
2007). Concerning internet and e-Commerce technologies exploitation, the following
three areas came on top in the survey: passing demand information to suppliers,
receiving supply information from suppliers, and supply chain information platform to
share data between all actors (Devaraj et al., 2007). Other supply chain technologies
that were also foreseen to have some impact in future supply chains were: container
scanning technologies, customer feedback technologies, electronic seals and waste
management technologies (Fawcett et al., 2007). On the supply chain metrics side, the
proper measurement and analysis of the following five indicators were seen as most
important for the future: delivery performance; supply chain response time; production
flexibility; supply chain management cost; and corporate profitability
(Theeranuphattana and Tang, 2008).
Unsurprisingly, the most important criteria for selecting suppliers were quality,
flexibility and the speed of delivery, confirming the findings of the literature review
and interview phase (Huang and Keskar, 2007). Concerning the role of product
management as part of the supply chain management function, the experts put strong
emphasis on the following two trends: environmental aspects will have an important
role in the product design function; and new product innovation will have more
importance in the supply chain management function in the future.
When reviewing logistics functions, the panel emphasized the continuous
outsourcing trend in physical transportation and inventory management. The
importance of customer support throughout the product life cycle was also seen to gain
momentum in the future (Carrillo, 2005). There were also two other predictions that
merged from the analysis. These concerned reverse logistics for product returns, and
increase in volume of service and maintenance operations (Carter and Ellram, 1998). As
for the reverse logistics, it was predicted that the flows would break the national
barriers and become more global in the future. Supply chain partners will take stronger
roles. Logistics service providers will enlarge their service portfolio towards managing
customers’ account receivables. Customs agents will take the responsibility for
complete cross-border operations. Integrated processes will be offered to manage
bonded warehouses. Finance institutions will increase their presence in global supply
chains via cross-industry consolidations. A manufacturing company may even act as
its own bank, and/or insurance company, thus making self-insurance and self-finance
more common. This will also lead to increasing risk sharing between manufacturing Assessing
companies themselves (Amel et al., 2004). Technology and telecom companies may drivers of change
provide the following new service offerings: data credibility and transparency
management, data integration services, data mining services, track and trace services,
skills development services, and supply chain auditing services.
Concerning supply chain disruptions, an overwhelming consensus was reached on
disruptions related to material supply and transportation services (Lee, 2002). Potential 751
disruption in demand was not valued equally. There were joint concerns on the cost
implications of having to deal with multiple supply chain security standards in
worldwide operations (Sheu et al., 2006). The greatest security expenditures are
allocated to new facility security measures. In the future, security measures related to
information technology are seen to be a major concern. Theft was considered as the
biggest security issue today, and terrorism in the future. There was a general
consensus that security requirements will increase in international supply chains. One
respondent said: “there will be secure supply chains and there will be highly secure
supply chains”. Moving from border checks to supply chain wide activities was seen as
a key trend. On the positive side, increased security is likely to reduce any risks and
may improve quality in international supply chains. On the negative side, several costs
are likely to be assigned to security in the future, in terms of security investments,
security related delays, etc.
On corporate compliance, groups shared the view that transparency in business
decision-making and management is likely to increase in the future, leading to better
corporate governance practices. Smart companies can also use good governance to
increase their company and brand image, i.e. good governance becoming a public
relations tool (Fawcett et al., 2006). On environmental concerns, anything in supply
chains contributing negatively to global warning will be a major topic in the future
(Linton et al., 2007). Recycling requirements will be applied to virtually all industries
and environmental concerns may even lead to a complete overhaul of business
processes and/or towards more local products and production.
In all, a total of 44 supply chain parameters were detected to have an importance in
the shaping of future supply chains (see Table IV for a complete list). These parameters
were then assessed against the change drivers.

Mapping of change drivers and supply chain parameters

The first step was to create the full matrix for the expert evaluation phase, combining
the 14 change drivers with potentially high impacts on future supply chain models
containing the 44 supply chain parameters. Then a simple weighting scale (strong
negative impact ¼ 2 2, negative impact ¼ 2 1, no impact ¼ 0, positive impact ¼ 1,
strong positive impact ¼ 2) was devised for the experts to assess the impact of the
supply chain parameter drivers. To consolidate the expert replies, all answers were
combined into one master matrix. The weights were summed for each driver and
parameter. Finally, a consensus matrix was established with ten change drivers and 17
supply chain parameters, which were seen to have the highest connections, positive or
negative, in relation to future supply chain models (see Table V). In the following we
explain and interpret in detail the highest consensus driver-parameter pairs in the
expert replies.
IJPDLM
39,9 Number International supply chain parameter Category

1 Outsourcing of multiple functions from shippers to Logistics

logistics service companies increasing
2 The role of national/regional distribution centers Logistics
752 increasing (less direct deliveries)
3 Companies setting more focus in managing reverse Logistics
logistics flows
4 Consolidation of logistics services industry increasing Logistics
5 Air freight gaining market share in international Logistics
transportation (over other transport modes)
6 Sea freight gaining market share in international Logistics
transportation (over other transport modes)
7 Road freight gaining market share in international Logistics
transportation (over other transport modes)
8 Rail freight gaining market share in international Logistics
transportation (over other transport modes)
9 Ocean carriers increasing their capacity per vessel Logistics
10 Ocean carriers increasing their total capacity Logistics
11 Air carriers increasing their capacity per vessel Logistics
12 Air carriers increasing their total capacity Logistics
13 The average capacity on sea ports increasing Logistics
14 The total capacity on sea ports increasing Logistics
15 The average capacity on airports increasing Logistics
16 The total capacity on airports increasing Logistics
17 Centralization of supply chain management function Management
increasing
18 Good corporate citizenship, transparency, business ethics, Management
and high compliance increasing
19 The share of focused factories, serving more global Manufacturing
markets, is increasing
20 More manufacturing investments by existing Manufacturing
multinationals into developing countries
21 More manufacturing investments by existing Manufacturing
multinationals into industrial countries
22 More multinationals emerging in developing countries, Manufacturing
supplying developing countries
23 More multinationals emerging in developing countries, Manufacturing
supplying industrial countries
24 Raw-materials, components and semi-finished goods Manufacturing
sourced from more countries
25 New product introductions happening more frequently Products
(product life-cycles shortening)
26 Product variety increasing (more functionalities, versions, Products
revisions etc. per product)
27 Modularity and product postponement strategies Products
becoming mainstream practices
28 The share of regulated products (pharma, chemicals, food Products
etc.) increasing
Table IV. 29 The share of (import/export) license and/or quota products Regulations
The 44 supply chain increasing
parameters (continued)
Number International supply chain parameter Category
Assessing
drivers of change
30 Rules of origin and preferential treatment rules gaining Regulations
more priority with industries
31 The role of free-trade-zone manufacturing increasing Regulations
32 Supply chain security partnership schemes between trade Security
and customs improving 753
33 Companies investing more in security measures to protect Security
against international crime
34 Supply chain security technologies (protect, prevent, detect, Technologies
track) becoming mainstream
35 International trade, logistics and customs data standards Technologies
increasing their role
36 Paperless trade, logistics and customs will be achieved Technologies
37 Total trade value increasing (including national, regional Trade
and global trade)
38 Share of international trade of total trade increasing Trade
39 Value (size) per international trade (import/export) Trade
transaction increasing
40 Number of different types of international trade actors Trade
increasing
41 International trade value per individual company Trade
increasing (more mergers/consolidation)
42 Intracompany trade value increasing (as percent of total Trade
international trade)
43 More consumption (per capita) coming from developing Trade
countries
44 More consumption (per capita) coming from industrial Trade
countries Table IV.

The average airport capacity decreasing (via most negative consensus score)
The straightforward assumption here is that increasing energy prices, mainly oil prices,
will decrease the competitiveness of air cargo in the future. This goes hand in hand with
the following three supply chain parameters (with their negative versions): air freight
loosing market share in international transportation (over other transport modes); air
carriers not increasing total capacity; and total airport capacity not increasing. As one of
the transportation consultants said, “air freight is only a fraction of the overall global
freight volumes, yet it corresponds to one third of the value. This means that in the
coming decade, air freight will focus even more on higher value freight.” This could also
lead to other transport modes (mainly sea) winning market share from air transport, and
also to more regional supply chain structures where transportation costs play less a role
in the total supply chain costs. On the other hand, airfreight has many obvious benefits
over other transport modes: speed, shipment protection etc. Therefore, it is difficult to
foresee that it should become non-negligible. Finally, major breakthrough innovations in
energy technologies and/or aircraft technologies could in fact completely change the
situation in favor of more airfreight, over the long-term.

Total trade value increasing and share of international trade of total trade increasing
There appears to be a basic consensus amongst the experts that both the total trade value
and the share of international trade will continue to increase in the future, following the
IJPDLM
Supply chain system – parameters A B C D E F G H I J K
39,9
The average capacity on airports
increasing 25 25
Air freight gaining market share in
international transportation (over
754 other transport modes) 24 24
Share of international trade of total
trade increasing 27 8 25 24
Air carriers increasing their total
capacity 24 24
The total capacity on airports
increasing 24 24
Total trade value increasing (including
national, regional and global trade) 27 10 25 22
Rules of origin and preferential
treatment rules gaining more priority
with industries 8 8
Companies investing more in security
measures to protect against
international crime 8 8
International trade, logistics and
customs data standards increasing
their role 8 8
More consumption (per capita) coming
from developing countries 8 8
Raw materials, components and semi-
finished goods sourced from more
countries 9 9
Supply chain security partnership
schemes between trade and customs
improving 10 10
Product variety increasing (more
functionalities, versions, revisions, etc.
per product) 11 11
New product introductions happening
more frequently (product life-cycles
shortening) 12 12
Paperless trade, logistics and customs
will be achieved 8 11 19
Supply chain security technologies
(protect, prevent, detect, track)
becoming mainstream 9 12 21
Good corporate citizenship,
transparency, business ethics, and
high compliance increasing 12 8 10 30
Grand total 20 21 8 217 8 214 46 9 40 210 121
Key: A ¼ Business ethics, good corporate citizenship; B ¼ Consumer demands and wishes;
Table V. C ¼ Customs regulations compliance; D ¼ Energy concerns: availability and prices;
Change driver – supply E ¼ Environmental concerns and regulations; F ¼ Global pandemics, including avian flu;
chain parameter G ¼ Internet and e-Commerce technologies; H ¼ Raw material concerns: availability and prices;
consensus matrix I ¼ Security concerns and regulations; J ¼ Technical trade barriers; K ¼ Grand total
long-term historical path. One of the government representatives confirmed this by Assessing
stating that “trade volumes have been going up constantly, even during periods of
recession. There are no foreseen obstacles to hinder this fundamental development”. The
drivers of change
single most important change driver for the positive growth trend was identified as the
Internet and e-Commerce. These have certainly already made an impressive contribution
in global trade growth, such as trading mechanisms, information sharing platforms etc.
At the same time, the experts saw that two specific change drivers could slow down both 755
international and total trade, namely global pandemics and technical trade barriers. “The
SARS epidemic showed the paralyzing effect to local trade, yet the recovery from it was
relatively fast. Had this been a global outbreak, the implications would have been very
serious for global trade”, commented the logistics expert. One could argue here that these
two change drivers are likely to hit international trade first just as technical trade barriers
are doing so to some extent today. Slowing down local/regional trade would then imply a
decrease in total consumption figures, which is also foreseeable.

More consumption per capita from developing countries

The experts concluded here that a growing number of consumers in developing
countries will be spending more money in manufactured goods, thus setting new
challenges and requirements for international as well as local/regional supply chains.
One expert referred to GDP per capita statistics by commenting that “the increase of
middle class in major emerging markets like India and China will make sourcing and
supply chains truly global in order to satisfy this demand”.

Raw-materials, components and semi-finished goods sourced from more countries

According to the expert replies, companies will continue expanding the geographical
regions for their sourcing activities for their raw-materials and components required in
their own manufacturing. As one analyst indicated, “global sourcing was discussed
already 15 years ago, yet now it has really become truly global, meaning that sourcing
affects all continents and even the traditionally remote areas”.

General trends in international trade and supply chains

Total trade value is on the increase as well as the share of international trade out of
total trade, driven by the internet and e-Commerce, amongst other factors. Good
corporate citizenship, transparency, business ethics, and high compliance standards
are all on the increase. This is at least partially due to growing public and
governmental concerns in relation to financial accounting, environmental protection,
security protection and other management practices of public interest. “Advanced
companies are seeing transparency and voluntary reporting on issues related to
sustainability and resource utilization as part of their brand building”, wrote the trade
facilitation expert. More consumption per capita appears to be coming from developing
countries, thus setting new challenges for international supply chains. In order to
continuously improve supply chain operations, to reach faster lead-times with lower
total cost, companies will also give higher priority to their supply chain management
organizations, e.g. by centralizing the management function globally.

Changing global manufacturing and sourcing landscape

There will be more manufacturing investments from existing multinationals in
developing countries, investments driven by low cost labor and increasing consumer
IJPDLM demand. At the same time, more multinational companies are being created in
39,9 developing countries themselves, supplying first the developing markets, and then
possibly expanding marketing and even manufacturing to industrial countries. One
expert dealing with a global engineering company indicated that “outsourcing, or
off-shoring will gain momentum and it does not concern exploiting lower labor costs,
but building permanent knowledge based presence at the emerging markets”. The
756 share of focused factories serving more global markets appears to be increasing, while
companies are reaching for economies of scale in their manufacturing operations,
especially for high investment in production facilities. To match the customer
requirements for more tailored products, and more frequently introduced new
products, companies will be implementing product modularity and product
postponement strategies in the future. Finally, the sourcing of raw materials,
components and semi-finished goods will cover broader geographical regions.

Changing logistics management landscape

The consolidation of the logistics industry will continue, as logistics service providers seek
economies of scale to minimize the unit costs and broader service offerings to satisfy the
requirements of their global clients. The outsourcing of various logistics functions from
shippers will continue. Companies will focus on their core competencies for research and
development, manufacturing and/or marketing, amongst others. An increasing amount of
attention will be paid to manage reverse logistics flows, driven, e.g. by environmental
regulations. “Carriers will offer solutions that make them strategically integrated with core
value processes of their globally operating customers”, wrote one of the logistics experts.
Finally, airfreight will face some serious challenges on their pricing if oil prices continue
rising. This might even slow down some of the airfreight growth scenarios in the future.

Changing technology and security landscapes

International trade, logistics and customs data standards will increase their roles in the
future, and it is even possible that paperless trade, logistics and customs will be
achieved within the next ten to 20 years. Company investments in supply chain
security measures will increase, business – government relationships in security
management will deepen and many supply chain security technologies will become
mature, widely used technologies. The customs expert confirmed this by saying that
“the current data exchange and compliancy initiatives will in the near future
significantly automate the flow of customs clearance documents and this development
is being made by industrial representatives”.

Conclusions – practical implications

Companies taking part in international trade and supply chains must be well prepared
for the anticipated changes in their future operational environments. A large number of
trends and change drivers have been identified, i.e. factors which cannot necessarily be
evaluated by individual companies, but which should not be ignored by those companies
that hope to remain competitive. The top eight change drivers in this study were: internet
and e-commerce technologies; new technologies for physical operations; consumer
demands and wishes; security concerns and regulations; energy concerns – availability
and prices; business ethics and good corporate citizenship; low cost manufacturing labor
– regional availability; and environmental concerns and regulations.
 The impact of both industrial clients and final consumers will increase in future Assessing
international supply chain management. Customer focused reliability indicators such drivers of change
as delivery performance and perfect order fulfillment will be the most important
supply chain management metrics. The standard supply chain management business
process with the highest weight will be customer relationship management. Customers
will demand more tailored products to meet their individual needs, thus forcing
companies to manage material flows with an increasing number of stock keeping units. 757
New highly specific customer demands will emerge in developing economies.
Manufacturing will become more and more global in nature. New production
capacities will be erected both in industrial and developing economies. Investments in
developing countries are driven by the continuous search for low cost manufacturing
labor as well as the need to be closer to the growing demand in developing economies,
ready to quickly react to possible special market requirements in terms of cost,
functionality, design, etc. There will equally be an increase in the number of focused
factories, which typically serve more global markets on a narrow set of products
requiring large investments in research and development, in manufacturing
technology, and in training. Raw materials will be sourced from more regions,
subject to raw material availability and prices. Some experts suggest that due to
increased energy prices, near-sourcing will increase also, which, in turn, will make
global supply chains even more diverse and complex.
Products are becoming more complex from multiple points of view. Following
differentiating customer needs and requirements, the number of product versions and
stock keeping units will increase. At the same time, product life cycles are becoming
shorter, following the intense market competition and customer demand for new
products. Modular product design and the product postponement paradigm will be
exploited as one set of solutions to tackle product management complexities in the
future. Different types of supply chains need to be established and operated: physically
efficient supply chains for functional products and market responsive supply chains
for innovative products.
The need for efficient networking and collaboration, business-to-business and
business-to-government, will continue to grow. Increasing numbers of companies are
making profits by focusing on their core competencies, and outsourcing the majority of
non-core activities to high performing third party service providers’. Many supply
chain actors and service providers including logistics service providers, technology
and telecom companies, as well as banks and insurance companies, are expanding their
service offerings to cover more tasks and functions to facilitate fast and cost efficient
international supply chains. Some suggested that this development would, at the
extreme, result in full outsourcing of supply chain operations, i.e. companies focus on
core competencies and logistics departments will become obsolete in many high-tech
and manufacturing companies. Finally, the networking and collaboration trend will
also lead to an increase in international supply chain complexity, which must be
tackled with optimized business processes and technologies.
Industry consolidation and mergers in domains such as logistics and transportation
will continue in the future leading to bigger and more powerful logistics service
providers. At the same time, the interest to outsource more and more logistics functions
to external service providers will increase within manufacturing and shipping
communities, thus driving demand for more complete and integrated logistics service
IJPDLM offerings. Both air and sea transport will play important roles in future logistics
39,9 systems even though this study predicts that the growth of air transport will be slowed
by increasing fuel prices. Finally, governments and businesses need to keep investing
in new transportation infrastructures, including new port and airport capacity and
extending road and rail networks.
Emerging technologies, tools and standards will help companies and governments
758 to better design, manage and control international supply chains and business
networks in the future. Management complexities will increase due to higher volumes,
tighter delivery schedule requirements, more disperse supply chain structures, and
broader geographies. Various planning tools are expected to help in optimization and
management of international supply chains. Track and trace technologies will help
shipment tracking in real-time in various transport modes. Internet technologies will
support data sharing between all actors in supply chains and networks, and
e-Commerce technologies will enable more efficient global electronic trade.
International trade, government data standards and eventually paperless trade will
also take on increased roles in the future.
The vulnerabilities of international supply chains will increase in the future, driven
by various external hazards and risks, lean operational models as well as changes
imposed by regulatory countermeasures. Companies are particularly concerned about
future disruptions in material supply and transportation, which will have negative
impact on just-in-time operations. In supply chain security management, companies
will definitely be investing more in supply chain security measures; business –
government relationships in security management will get deeper; and many of today’s
pilot-phase supply chain security technologies for crime prevention, detection and
recovery will become mainstream tools in the future. It is anticipated that via various
certification programs and “secure trade lane” schemes, there will be two or more
categories of “secure vs. very secure operators and supply chains”.
Finally, we believe that both the total trade and international trade share of total
trade will continue to grow as it has in past decades. It is quite possible that difficult
political, health, environment, energy, security and other extreme issues might well
emerge throughout the next ten to 20 years. This should keep us prepared for the world
where international supply chains have less relevance, while local and regional supply
chains are taking over in importance. This study has aimed to provide a 360 degree
view of the future of international supply chain management and the challenges
companies will face to compete in the twenty-first century business environment.
However, several interesting and potentially important topics should be addressed by
future detailed research:
.
Supply chain structures and operations in different industry sectors with various
diverging and converging supply chains.
. Transportation and distribution networks within future international supply
chain models: analysis of various transportation modes, infrastructure solutions,
global vs. regional distribution centers, hub-structures and operations.
.
The role of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in future international
supply chains: specific challenges for SMEs to compete in global manufacturing,
technology, logistics and trade service sectors.
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About the authors

Ari-Pekka Hameri is professor of operations management at University of Lausanne,
Switzerland. He has been involved with numerous international research and spin-off projects
dealing with industrial IT and supply chain management. He has published over 50 articles in
international management and science journals concerning technology management and
transfer, and management of production, projects and supply chains. Ari-Pekka Hameri is the
corresponding author and can be contacted at: ahameri@unil.ch
Juha Hintsa is a senior researcher in supply chain security management and customs risk
management. He has published widely in both practitioner and academic journals. He is the
founder of the Cross-border Research Association in Lausanne, Switzerland; and also a
researcher at EPF Lausanne and doctoral candidate at HEC University of Lausanne. He is one of
the founding members of INCU; and editorial board member for the Journal of Transportation
Security and the World Customs Journal. His on-going research projects include: Feasibility
study for a possible European supply chain security family of standards (with CEN); China-EU
tradelane for visibility and security (with EU FP7); and a series of customs risk management
studies (with WCO and SNF).

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