US Economic Briefing:

Regional Business Surveys

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 26, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Regional M-PMIs 1
National vs Regional M-PMIs 2
Regional Business Conditions Indexes 3
Regional New Orders 4
Regional Production 5
Regional Employment 6
Chicago PMI 7
Dallas Fed Survey 8
Kansas City Fed Survey 9
New York Fed Survey 10
Philadelphia Fed Survey 11
Richmond Fed Survey 12
Regional Business Indexes 13-19
Regional Employment 20
Chicago PMI 21
Dallas Fed Survey 22

October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Regional M-PMIs
Figure 1.
50 50
REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES*

Oct

0 0

-50 -50

Composite
NY & Philly (Oct=21.8) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (Sep=17.7)
NY, Philly, and Dallas (Oct=19.4) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and
NY, Philly, Richmond, and Dallas (Oct=17.6) Chicago (Sep=18.5)
-100 -100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

45 45

30 30
Oct
15 15

0 0

-15 -15

-30 -30

-45 -45

-60 New Orders -60

NY and Philly (Oct=27.6) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (Sep=9.4)
-75 NY, Philly, and Dallas (Oct=23.3) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and -75
NY, Philly, Richmond, and Dallas (Oct=20.0) Chicago (Sep=9.4)
-90 -90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

40 40

Oct
20 20

0 0
yardeni.com

-20 -20

-40 -40

Employment
-60 NY and Philly (Oct=23.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (Sep=22.8) -60
NY, Philly, and Dallas (Oct=25.4) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and
NY, Philly, Richmond, and Dallas (Oct=25.8) Chicago (Sep=19.4)
-80 -80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group.

Page 1 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 National vs Regional M-PMIs
Figure 2.
70 40
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs*
60 Sep 20

50 0

40 -20

30 National Composite M-PMI (Sep=61.1) -40

Regional Composite (Sep=17.7)

20 -60

10 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

95 60
90 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs* 50
85
80 40
75 30
70
65 20
60 Sep 10
55
50 0
45 -10
40
35 -20
30
National Orders M-PMI (Sep=66.7)
-30
25
20 -40
Regional Orders (Sep=9.4)
15 -50
10
-60
5
0 -70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

70 40
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs*
65 30
Sep
60 20

55 10

50 0

45 -10

40 National Employment M-PMI ( (Sep=50.2) -20

35 Regional Employment (Sep=22.8) -30

30 -40
yardeni.com
25 -50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

*Average of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Page 2 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Conditions Indexes
Figure 3.
80 60
CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER INDEX* NEW YORK
(sa) GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX** 40
(sa)

Sep Oct 20
60
0

-20

-40
40
-60

-80

20 -100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
80 100
DALLAS CURRENT GENERAL PHILADELPHIA CURRENT ACTIVITY INDEX**
60
BUSINESS INDEX** (sa)
(sa)

40 50

20 Oct
Oct

0 0

-20

-40 -50

-60

-80 -100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40
RICHMOND FED COMPOSITE INDEX** KANSAS CITY COMPOSITE INDEX**
(sa) (sa)
20
Sep
20
Oct

-20

-20
-40

yardeni.com
-60 -40
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
*Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional New Orders
Figure 4.
90 50
CHICAGO* NEW YORK**
(sa) (sa)
80
Oct

70
0
Sep
60

50
New
New Orders -50
40 Orders

30

20 -100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
60 100
DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA**
(sa) (sa)
40

50
20
Oct
Oct
0
0
-20

New New
-40 Orders Orders
-50

-60

-80 -100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 60
RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY**
(sa) (sa)
40
20

Oct 20

0 Sep
0

-20
-20 New New
Orders Orders
-40
-40
-60

yardeni.com
-60 -80
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
*Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Production
Figure 5.
85 70
CHICAGO* DALLAS**
(sa) Production (sa)
75 50

65
Production 30
Sep Oct
55 10

45 -10

35 -30

25 -50

15 -70
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
50
KANSAS CITY**
40 (one-month change, sa)
30
Production

20
10 Sep
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
yardeni.com
-70
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
*Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 5 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Employment
Figure 6.
70 30
CHICAGO* NEW YORK**
20
Oct
60 10

Sep 0
50
-10

-20
40 Employment
Employment -30

-40
30

-50

20 -60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40
DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA**
Oct
Oct
20 20

0 0

-20 Employment -20

Employment

-40 -40

-60 -60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40
RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY**

Oct
20 Sep 20

0 0

Employment
-20 -20
Employment

yardeni.com
-40 -40
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
*Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 6 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Chicago PMI
Figure 7.
80 100
CHICAGO PMI SURVEY
Order Backlogs 90
70 Deliveries
80
Sep
70
60
Sep 60

50
50

40
40 Business
Barometer 30

30 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
80 80
Production

70
Employment 70

60 Sep 60

Sep
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
100 100
Prices Paid
Sep 90
80
80

Sep 70
60

60

40
50

New Orders 40
20 Inventories
30

yardeni.com
0 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 7 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Dallas Fed Survey
Figure 8.
80 40
DALLAS FED BUSINESS SURVEY
60
Unfilled
40 Orders Oct 20
20 Oct
0
0
-20
-40
-60 Current General -20
Business Index
-80
-100 -40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 40

40 Oct
20
20

0 Oct 0

-20 -20
-40 Current Company Employment
Outlook Index -40
-60

-80 -60
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 100

40 Prices Paid:
Raw Materials Oct

20 Oct
50
0

-20
0
-40 Production
-60 Prices Received:
Finished Goods
-80 -50
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 60

40 40

20 Oct 20
Oct
0 0

-20 -20

-40 Capacity -40

New Orders Utilization
-60 Volume of Shipments -60
yardeni.com
-80 -80
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 8 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Kansas City Fed Survey
Figure 9.
60 40
KANSAS CITY FED BUSINESS SURVEY
40 Production Backlog
of Orders
20
20
Sep
Jul
0
0
-20

-40
-20

-60

-80 -40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
20
New
Orders
30 Volume of 10
Shipments

Sep Sep
0

-20 -10

Finished
Goods
Inventories -20

-70 -30
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 100

Sep
Employment Prices
Paid
20 Sep
Prices Received
50

0
-20

yardeni.com
-40 -50
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Haver Analytics

Page 9 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 New York Fed Survey
Figure 10.
60 40
NY FED BUSINESS SURVEY*
40
20
Oct
20 Oct
0
0

-20 -20

-40
-40
General Business
-60 Conditions Index Employment
Workweek -60
-80

-100 -80
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
50 20

Oct
Oct 10

0 0

-10

-50 New -20

Orders
Inventories
Shipments
-30

-100 -40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
60 60

Oct
40 Oct 40

20 20

0 0

Delivery Prices
Time Received
-20 -20

yardeni.com
-40 -40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Diffusion indexes.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Page 10 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Philadelphia Fed Survey
Figure 11.
100 45
PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS SURVEY*
Oct 30
Current
50 Activity
Index 15

Oct
0
0
-15

Employment
-30
-50

-45

-100 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
60 30
50
Orders Oct 20
40
Shipments
30 Oct 10
20
0
10
0 -10
-10
-20 -20
-30
Inventories -30
-40
-50 -40
-60
-50
-70
-80 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
50 65
45
40 55
Oct
35 Unfilled 45
30 Orders Current
25 Prices 35
20 Received
15 25
Oct
10
5 15
0 5
-5
-10 -5
-15
-20 -15
-25
-25
-30
-35 -35
-40 yardeni.com
-45 -45
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Diffusion indexes.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Page 11 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Richmond Fed Survey
Figure 12.
40 60
RICHMOND FED BUSINESS SURVEY

20 40
Oct
Oct
0 20

-20 0

Composite Index
Employment
-40 Wages -20

-60 -40
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
50 100

75
Oct Oct
0 Vendor
Lead Time
50

25
-50
New Orders
Shipments 0

-100 -25
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40

20 Oct 20

0 Oct 0

-20 -20

Backlog Capacity
Orders Utilization
-40 -40

yardeni.com
-60 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Page 12 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 13.
50 50
REGIONAL COMPOSITE MANUFACTURING INDEXES*
40 40

30 30

20 20
Oct
10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
New York and New York, Philadelphia,
-40 Philadelphia (Oct=21.8) Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City (Sep=17.7) -40
New York, Philadelphia, New York, Philadelphia,
-50 and Dallas (Oct=19.4) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, -50
and Chicago (Sep=18.5)
-60 New York, Philadelphia, -60
Richmond, and
-70 Dallas (Oct=17.6) -70
yardeni.com
-80 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutshce Borse Group.

Figure 14.
50 50
REGIONAL NEW ORDERS MANUFACTURING INDEXES
40 40

30 30

20 Oct 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
New York and New York, Philadelphia,
-40 Philadelphia (Oct=27.6) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (Sep=9.4) -40
New York, Philadelphia, New York, Philadelphia,
-50 and Dallas (Oct=23.3) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, -50
and Chicago (Sep=12.7)
-60 New York, Philadelphia, -60
Richmond, and
-70 Dallas (Oct=20.0) -70
yardeni.com
-80 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Bourse.

Page 13 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 15.
40 40
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MANUFACTURING INDEXES

Oct
20 20

0 0

-20 -20

New York and New York, Philadelphia,

Philadelphia (Oct=23.9) Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas (Sep=22.8)
New York, Philadelphia, New York, Philadelphia,
-40 and Dallas (Oct=25.4) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, -40
New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago (Sep=19.4)
Richmond, and
Dallas (Oct=25.8)
yardeni.com
-60 -60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Dallas.

Figure 16.
76 50
74
72 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs*
70 40
68
66 30
64
62 Sep
60 20
58
56 10
54
52
50 0
48
46
44 -10
42
40 -20
38
36
34 -30
32
30 -40
28
26 National Composite M-PMI (Sep=61.1)
24 -50
22
20 Dallas, Kansas City, New York,
18 -60
16
Philadelphia, and Richmond ( (Sep=17.7)
14 -70
12
10 yardeni.com
8 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond and Institute for Supply Management.

Page 14 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 17.
80 40
NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORDERS M-PMIs

70
20

60
0

50

-20

40

-40
30
National Orders M-PMI (Sep=66.7)

-60
20 Dallas, Kansas City, New York,
Philadelphia, and Richmond (Sep=9.4)

yardeni.com
10 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Figure 18.
65 30
US NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT M-PMIs
Sep
60 20

55 10

50 0

45 -10

40 -20

35 National Employment M-PMI (50.2) -30

30
Dallas, Kansas City, New York, -40
Philadelphia, and Richmond (22.8)

yardeni.com
25 -50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Page 15 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 19.
25 66
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE & US M-PMI Q2 64
20 62
Sep
60
15
58
56
10
54

5 52
50
0 48
46
-5 44
S&P 500 Revenues 42
-10 (using dollars per share,
yearly percent change) (21.8) 40
38
-15
M-PMI (61.1) 36

-20 34
32
yardeni.com
-25 30
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Institute for Supply Management.

Page 16 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 20.
40 40
REGIONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEXES*
20 Sep 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40
Composite (21.0)

-60 -60

-80 -80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

40 40

20 20
Sep
0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40
New Orders (9.4)

-60 -60

-80 -80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

30 30

Sep
20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20
Employment (22.0)
-30 -30

-40 -40

yardeni.com
-50 -50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

*Average of New York, Kansas City, Richmond, and Philadelphia.

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Page 17 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 21.
40 80
NATIONAL PMIs vs REGIONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEXES*

70
20
Sep

Sep 60
0

50

-20
40
Regional Composite (17.7)
-40
M-PMI (61.1) 30

-60 20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

40 70

20
Sep
60

50

-20

Regional Composite (17.7)

40
-40
NM-PMI (61.9)

-60 30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

40 70

20 Sep
Sep
60

50

-20

Regional Composite (17.7)

40
-40
Average of M-PMI & NM-PMI (61.5)

yardeni.com
-60 30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

*Average of Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Dallas.

Page 18 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Business Indexes
Figure 22.
40 90
NATIONAL M-PMI vs REGIONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEXES*: NEW ORDERS

80
20

Sep 70
Sep
0
60

-20 50

40
-40

30
Regional New Orders* (9.4)
-60
M-PMI New Orders (66.7) 20

yardeni.com
-80 10
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average of New York, Kansas City, Richmond, and Philadelphia.

Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Figure 23.
45 45
MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS & REGIONAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX* FOR NEW ORDERS

30 30

15 Aug 15
Sep

0 0

-15 -15

Regional New Orders* (9.4)

-30 Factory New Orders -30
(yearly percent change) (16.0)

-45 -45

-60 -60

-75 -75

yardeni.com
-90 -90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average of New York, Kansas City, Richmond, and Philidelphia.

Source: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Page 19 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Regional Employment
Figure 24.
70 30
CHICAGO* NEW YORK**
20
Oct
60 10

Sep 0
50
-10

-20
40 Employment
Employment -30

-40
30

-50

20 -60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40
DALLAS** PHILADELPHIA**
Oct
Oct
20 20

0 0

-20 Employment -20

Employment

-40 -40

-60 -60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
40 40
RICHMOND** KANSAS CITY**

Oct
20 Sep 20

0 0

Employment
-20 -20
Employment

yardeni.com
-40 -40
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
*Regional ISM survey. **Regional Fed Survey.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 20 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Chicago PMI
Figure 25.
80 100
CHICAGO PMI SURVEY
Order Backlogs 90
70 Deliveries
80
Sep
70
60
Sep 60

50
50

40
40 Business
Barometer 30

30 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
80 80
Production

70
Employment 70

60 Sep 60

Sep
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
100 100
Prices Paid
Sep 90
80
80

Sep 70
60

60

40
50

New Orders 40
20 Inventories
30

yardeni.com
0 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 21 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Dallas Fed Survey
Figure 26.
80 40
DALLAS FED BUSINESS SURVEY
60
Unfilled
40 Orders Oct 20
20 Oct
0
0
-20
-40
-60 Current General -20
Business Index
-80
-100 -40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 40

40 Oct
20
20

0 Oct 0

-20 -20
-40 Current Company Employment
Outlook Index -40
-60

-80 -60
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 100

40 Prices Paid:
Raw Materials Oct

20 Oct
50
0

-20
0
-40 Production
-60 Prices Received:
Finished Goods
-80 -50
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

60 60

40 40

20 Oct 20
Oct
0 0

-20 -20

-40 Capacity -40

New Orders Utilization
-60 Volume of Shipments -60
yardeni.com
-80 -80
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 22 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 27.
50 50
REGIONAL COMPOSITE MANUFACTURING INDEXES*
40 40

30 30

20 20
Oct
10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
New York and New York, Philadelphia,
-40 Philadelphia (Oct=21.8) Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City (Sep=17.7) -40
New York, Philadelphia, New York, Philadelphia,
-50 and Dallas (Oct=19.4) Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, -50
and Chicago (Sep=18.5)
-60 New York, Philadelphia, -60
Richmond, and
-70 Dallas (Oct=17.6) -70
yardeni.com
-80 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutshce Borse Group.

Figure 28.
76 50
74
72 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs
70 40
68
66 30
64
62
60 20
58
56 10
54
52
50 0
48
46
44 -10
42
40 -20
38
36
34 -30
32
30 Composite Business Activity -40
28
26 National M-PMI (Sep=61.1)
24 -50
22 Average of Five Fed Districts* ( (Sep=17.7)
20
18 -60
16
14 -70
12
10 yardeni.com
8 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia, Institute for Supply Management.

Page 23 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 29.
75 50

70 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE M-PMIs

65

60 Oct

55

50 0

45

40

35

30

25 -50
Composite Business Activity
20 National M-PMI ( (Sep=61.1)
15 Average of Two Fed Districts* (Oct=21.8)
10

5
yardeni.com
0 -100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia.

Figure 30.
70 70

60 REGIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEXES* 60

(sa)
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30

-40 New York (Oct=19.8) -40

-50 Philadelphia (Oct=23.8) -50

Richmond (Oct=12.0)
-60 Dallas (Oct=14.6) -60

-70
Kansas City (Sep=22.0) -70
yardeni.com
-80 -80
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Regional Fed Survey.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 24 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 31.
100 100
REGIONAL UNFILLED ORDERS OR DELIVERY TIMES
(sa)

50 50

0 0

-50 New York (Oct=18.5) -50

Philadelphia (Oct=12.7)
Richmond (Oct=19.0)
Dallas (Oct=20.9)
Kansas City (Sep=30.0)
yardeni.com
-100 -100
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* Regional Fed Survey.

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 32.
60 60
REGIONAL UNFILLED ORDERS OR DELIVERY TIMES
50 (sa) 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 New York (Oct=18.5) -30

Philadelphia (Oct=12.7)
-40 Kansas City (Sep=30.0) -40
Average* (Sep=18.8)
-50 -50
yardeni.com
-60 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

* New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City Fed surveys unfilled orders average.
Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 25 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 33.
40 80
US BUSINESS SURVEYS
Sep
70
20

Sep
60

50

-20

40
National M-PMI (61.1)

-40 NY, Philly, & KC 30

Fed Surveys
Composite Average (29.0)

yardeni.com
-60 20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Institute for Supply Manangement and Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City.

Figure 34.
110 110

100 REGIONAL BUSINESS SURVEYS: 100

NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA, & RICHMOND
Oct
90 PRICE PAID & RECEIVED 90
(sa)
80 80

70 70
Regional Surveys*
Oct
60 Prices Received (62.9) 60
Prices Paid (93.1)
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 -30
yardeni.com
-40 -40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* Average of prices paid and received in surveys conducted by New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Fed district banks.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond.

Page 26 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 35.
50 50
REGIONAL BUSINESS SURVEYS:
40 NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA, & RICHMOND Oct
40
UNFILLED ORDERS, DELIVERY TIME, & BACKLOG OF ORDERS
30 (sa) 30

20 Oct 20

Oct
10 10

0 0

-10 -10

-20 -20

-30 New York (Delivery Time) (38.0) -30

Philadelphia (Unfilled Orders) (12.7)
-40
Richmond (Backlog of Orders) (19.0) -40

-50 -50

yardeni.com
-60 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 27 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 36.
100 100
FED GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX*
50 50

Oct
0 0

-50
New York (19.8) -50
Philadelphia (23.8)

-100 -100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

60 60
40 40
20 Oct 20
0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 New Orders -60
New York (24.3)
-80 Philadelphia (30.8) -80
-100 -100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

60 60

40 40

20 Oct 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 Employment -40

New York (17.1)
-60 Philadelphia (30.7) -60

-80 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

60 60

40 Oct 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20
Backlogs
-40 New York Delivery Time (38.0) -40
Philadelphia Unfilled Orders (12.7)
-60 -60
yardeni.com
-80 -80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia.

Page 28 / October 26, 2021 / Regional Business Surveys Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
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