Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches For Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Engineered Systems and An Application To Battery Life Prediction

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 63, NO.
1, MARCH 2014 191
Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches for

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Engineered
Systems, and an Application to Battery Life
Prediction
Linxia Liao and Felix Köttig
Abstract—Prognostics focuses on predicting the future perfor- SVM Support Vector Machine
mance of a system, specifically the time at which the system no
long performs its desired functionality, its time to failure. As an SOC State of Charge
important aspect of prognostics, remaining useful life (RUL) pre- SOH State of Health
diction estimates the remaining usable life of a system, which is
essential for maintenance decision making and contingency miti- EKF Extended Kalman Filter
gation. A significant amount of research has been reported in the
literature to develop prognostics models that are able to predict BP Back Propagation
a system’s RUL. These models can be broadly categorized into TLFN Time-Lagged Feedforward Network
experience-based models, date-driven models, and physics-based
models. However, due to system complexity, data availability, and FIS Fuzzy Inference System
application constraints, there is no universally accepted best model MQE Minimum Quantization Error
to estimate RUL. The review part of this paper specifically focused
on the development of hybrid prognostics approaches, attempting PDF, pdf Probability Density Function
to leverage the advantages of combining the prognostics models in
the aforementioned different categories for RUL prediction. The MD Mahalanobis Distance
hybrid approaches reported in the literature were systematically RVM Relevance Vector Machine
classified by the combination and interfaces of various types of
prognostics models. In the case study part, a hybrid prognostics RBPF RaoBlackwellized Particle Filter
method was proposed and applied to a battery degradation case to ANFIS Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System
show the potential benefit of the hybrid prognostics approach.
SVR Support Vector Regression
Index Terms—Condition monitoring, hybrid approach, predic-
tive maintenance, prognostics, remaining useful life prediction. EOL End of Life
MAE Mean Absolute Error
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

NOMENCLATURE
RUL Remaining Useful Life
System state
ANN Artificial Neural Network
Measurements
HMM Hidden Markov Model
Measurement model
MoG-HMM Mixture of Gaussian HMM
Measurement model error
DBN Dynamic Bayesian Network
System degradation model
ARMA Auto-Regressive Moving Average
System degradation model error
EMD Empirical Mode Decomposition
Measurement prediction model
PSO Particle Swarm Optimization
Measurement prediction model error
Manuscript received May 27, 2013; revised July 19, 2013; accepted
Predicted measurements
September 10, 2013. Date of publication January 15, 2014; date of current
version February 27, 2014. Associate Editor: L.Cui.
Prediction step
L. Liao is with the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC, a Xerox Company) Probability density function
(e-mail: linxia.liao@parc.com; liaolinxia@gmail.com).
F. Köttig is with the Dresden University of Technology (TUD), Germany, and Warburg impedance
is also with the Siemens Corporation, Corporate Technology U.S.
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online Charge transfer resistance
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TR.2014.2299152
Electrolyte resistance
0018-9529 © 2014 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
Authorized licensed use limited to: INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY KHARAGPUR. Downloaded on August 23,2021 at 10:42:54 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
192 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 63, NO. 1, MARCH 2014
are easy to understand, and the result is easy to interpret. How-

ever, expert systems rely on exact and complete expert rules,
and may suffer from the combinational explosion problem when
the number of inputs and outputs increases. The consistency
check is also problematic when the number of combinations in-
creases. Majidian and Saidi [4] presented a comparison of fuzzy
logic and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for RUL estimation
of boiler reheater tubes. The minimum, initial, and measured
wall thickness were used as input parameters together with the
tube lifetimes, and the results showed that the predictions of the
Fig. 1. Categorical breakdown of prognostics models. fuzzy logic and the ANNs were very close. However, the fuzzy
logic method required an appropriate design of the membership
functions, and the ANN method was sensitive to the number of
neurons.
Battery internal resistance The use of experience-based models is representative to how
Exponential decay parameter a human specialist solves a problem. The output and reasoning
Kernel function can be generally explained. However, experience-based models
rely too heavily on the capability of the domain expert to specify
Mean value the rules of a system, and the capability of developing fuzzy sets
Standard deviation representing all system characteristics.
B. Data-Driven Model
I. INTRODUCTION TO PROGNOSTICS APPROACH
Data-driven models rely only on previously observed data to
P ROGNOSTICS technology covers many aspects such as predict the projection of a system’s state or to match similar
yielding advanced warning of impending failures, and es- patterns in the history to infer RUL. Data-driven models include
timating remaining useful life, which ultimately result in in- but are not limited to statistical models, reliability functions, and
creased availability, reliability, and safety; and reduced main- artificial intelligence models.
tenance and logistics cost. As mentioned in ISO13381–1, prog- Statistical models such as Hidden Markov Models (HMM)
nostics is “an estimation of time to failure and risk for one or have been applied to prognostics problems. Medjaher et al.
more existing and future failure modes” [1]. Remaining useful [5] presented a data-driven prognostics method for remaining
life (RUL) was defined as “the length from the current time useful life prediction with applications to bearings. Mixtures of
to the end of the useful life” in [2]. As a very important part Gaussian hidden Markov models (MoG-HMMs), represented
of prognostics, RUL prediction has been applied to many sys- by dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN), were used to assess the
tems such as military and aerospace systems, manufacturing bearing health state based on time domain or frequency domain
equipment, power systems, and electronics. In general, RUL features extracted from vibration measurements. A set of five
prediction models in the literature can be categorized into ex- run-to-failure accelerated life test datasets was used for training
perience-based models, date-driven models, and physics-based of the MoG-HMMs, i.e., for estimation of the behavior model
models, as shown in Fig. 1. parameters corresponding to different health states (offline
training). The prognostics performance was evaluated with a
sixth dataset. Using the learned models, an appropriate model
A. Experience-Based Model
was selected based on the likelihood of the models given the
Experience-based models correlate expert knowledge and observations, and the remaining useful life was estimated by
engineering experience (often documented as IF-THEN rules summarizing the stay durations in each step (until failure)
directly from domain experts) with the observed situation to of the selected DBN. Medjaher et al. chose MoG-HMMs to
infer RUL from historical measurements or events. Expert overcome the limitations of traditional HMMs only capable of
systems and fuzzy logic methods can be considered as experi- handling discrete observations. Peng and Dong [6] presented
ence-based models because domain knowledge is relied on for a prognostics approach of hidden Markov and grey models
both methods. to predict the health states of pumps. The traditional hidden
Biagetti and Sciubba [3] presented an expert system incor- Markov state transition model was extended by an aging factor
porating a knowledge base, which is able to detect both faults to consider the deterioration of the device. This aging factor
and insidious degradation, i.e., to perform both diagnostics and was iteratively optimized with a statistical algorithm. The RUL
prognostics for an application in plants. IF-THEN rules were was estimated by analyzing the expected durations when the
defined with estimated fault indicators, and Fuzzy representa- device stayed in the healthy states until a failure occurred.
tion was used for fault diagnosis. Prognostics was performed Features were extracted from vibration signals using wavelet
by projecting the future state based on the present state and analysis, and the wavelet coefficients were used as the inputs
foreseen operative conditions. However, RUL was not deduced to the HMMs. These models can model different health stages
from the proposed method. The rules defined in expert systems (e.g., normal, crack initialization, growth, and failure) without
LIAO AND KÖTTIG: REVIEW OF HYBRID PROGNOSTICS APPROACHES FOR REMAINING USEFUL LIFE PREDICTION OF ENGINEERED SYSTEMS 193
the assumption of monotonic degradation. The specific fault suming. The reliability function may require assumptions such
progression in each stage is not required, but it requires data as the times to failure must be –independent and identical dis-
collected from different stages for training. A large amount tributed, all covariates that affect the hazard rate must be in-
of data, which is proportional to the different health stages, cluded in the model, and the effect of covariates is statistically
is required to train the model. The unforeseen failure modes time dependent.
cannot be modeled. Artificial intelligent methods such as neural networks were
Statistical models can further utilize time-series regression presented by Gebraeel et al. [13] to predict the RUL of bear-
techniques. Liu et al. [7] proposed an advanced autoregressive ings. Heng et al. [14] presented a prognostics approach using
time series model with a nonlinear accelerated degradation feedforward neural networks on pump vibration data. The
factor for remaining useful life estimation of lithium-ion bat- model incorporated population characteristics and suspended
teries. The degradation factor was obtained with curve fitting, condition trending data of historical units into prognostics.
and added to the AR model output to extend the linear AR The feedforward neural network was trained to estimate the
model, and match the battery degradation process. Yan et al. future survival probabilities, and RUL was calculated until the
[8] presented a method of using an auto-regressive moving predicted survival probability was less than 0.5. He et al. [15]
average (ARMA) model to predict the RUL of an elevator door. presented a method for health monitoring and prognostics of an
An ARMA model was used to predict the trend of the failure axial piston pump, combining empirical mode decomposition
probability, which was modeled from sensor data using logistic (EMD) of time series, particle swarm optimization (PSO), and
regression, until the trend of the failure probability reached a support vector machines (SVMs). Using the oil return flow as
predefined failure threshold. Lamoureux et al. [9] defined a an indicator of the wear condition, EMD was used to assess
physics-based health indicator for prognostics of an aircraft the pump’s health state, and system health state trending was
engine fuel pumping unit by applying a linear regression be- accomplished by SVM regression based on the intrinsic mode
tween a system degradation severity indicator and the measured functions decomposed by the EMD. He et al. used PSO to
health indicator (in this case, pump rotation speed). Typical obtain optimal parameters for the SVM radial basis function
ARMA models are effective for short-time prediction, while kernel. Artificial intelligent methods have been extensively
they are not reliable for long-term prediction. The predicted studied in the literature, which reveals their advantages and
value is assumed to be a linear function of previous observa- disadvantages. For example, neural networks can be used to
tions, with random errors. The stationary data assumption and model non-linear system functions, and are widely applied
the auto-correlation –independence assumption need to be to engineered systems. The feedback layer within an Elman
verified. The method of linear regression is easy to implement, Recurrent Neural Network enables it to model a non-stationary
and the prediction result is easy to explain. However, at the process. It is an effective tool to model complex systems which
fault initialization stage, the health indicator is typically noisy involve non-linear behavior and unstable processes, while cur-
and non-monotonic. Hence, a linear regression may not fit in rently there is no standard method to determine the structure of
this situation. Changes in the operating conditions (e.g., speed, the network, and it requires sufficient computational resources.
loading) and changes in the failure modes may affect the fault SVM is capable of finding an optimized hyper-plane in the
propagation, which makes the prediction of linear regression projected space that can separate the target points, which can
unreliable. only be classified by a non-linear boundary in the original
Reliability functions such as Weibull distributions have also feature space. Currently, there is no standard method to choose
been used for data-driven prognostics. Guo et al. [10] presented the kernel function for SVM, which is the key procedure of a
a three-parameter Weibull failure rate function for wind turbine successful SVM application.
reliability assessment. The proposed model dealt better with in- Furthermore, similarity based pattern matching methods have
complete field failure data than the traditional Weibull model, also been proposed for RUL prediction when historical run-to-
which in fact is a special case of the introduced three-param- failure data are abundant, such as the match matrix method pre-
eter model. Sutherland et al. [11] presented an approach for sented by Liu et al. [16], and a similarity based method pro-
deriving and using accurate Weibull distributions by means of posed by Wang et al. [17]. The key point of those methods
identification of subpopulations of related systems in the main- was to match the degradation pattern, which was represented
tenance database for condition-based maintenance of motors. by a signal or modeled health indicator, to the historical run-to-
Goode et al. [12] presented a RUL prediction method using failure datasets. The best matching pattern was found to derive
a statistical model for an application of pumps in a hot strip RUL, or weighted multiple patterns were used to calculate the
steel mill. A Weibull distribution was used to model the time-to- RUL. The similarity based prediction method is fundamentally
failure. RUL was then calculated during the potential failure to a pattern matching method. When there are a large amount of
functional failure interval, combining vibration data with reli- run-to-failure datasets from various operating conditions and
ability data. The reliability functions, which require data asso- failure modes, it can generate very accurate predictions. How-
ciated with individual failure mode(s), can be developed with ever, run-to-failure data are prohibitive and impractical in many
sufficient historical data. The method incorporates system age cases. The final prediction result also largely depends on the nor-
and –independent hazards into RUL prediction. It is easy to malization process, which calculates the average RUL from all
build a statistically adequate model; however, the model may matched historical patterns.
not follow the underlying degradation process. The parame- Data-driven models are derived only from historical data,
ters are often selected by experts, and that process is time con- and are applicable when data are sufficiently abundant. Similar
models can be applied to other systems without understanding sampling scheme for particle filter based prognostic approaches,
the complex physics. The output generated from real monitoring namely using the unscented transform, Daigle and Goebel also
data tends to give more precise information than those obtained presented a detailed model of the solenoid valve and extended
from experience or maintenance feedback. However, most re- it according to the damage evolving during the valve’s lifetime,
sults of data-driven models are not easy to explain or to be re- as presented in [22]. The measurement models, which estab-
lated to any physical meaning. In prognostics applications, there lish the mapping from measurement to the internal system state,
are also challenges in determining thresholds, deciding data to were the system states themselves, plus measurement noise. In
describe normal behavior, and solving over-fitting issues. the literature, data-driven models have been widely used to infer
the measurement models, which is addressed in Section II-D.1.
C. Physics-Based Model Physics-based models are derived directly from first prin-
Physics-based models are approaches that involve the knowl- ciples and an understanding of physical mechanisms. When
edge of a system’s failure mechanisms (e.g., crack growth) to available and sufficiently complete, behavioral models tend
build a mathematical description of the system’s degradation to significantly outperform other types of models [23]. Addi-
process to estimate the RUL. The mathematical models quan- tionally, changes in model output as described by the residuals
titatively characterize a system’s behavior using physics or first tend to have a direct (or easily translatable) physical meaning
principles. The identification of the model parameters usually [24]. However, physics-based models may not be available to
requires specifically designed experiments and extensive empir- complex systems due to the lack of understanding of all failure
ical data. In prognostics, condition data are often used to iden- modes and behaviors under a range of operating conditions.
tify and update the model parameters using statistical methods Model parameter identification also requires extensive experi-
(e.g., regression, Bayesian update). In our research, prognostics ment. In addition, a physics-based model is often built case by
models which involve first principles and statistical methods for case. Hence, it is not generally applicable to a different system
parameter identification are still categorized as physics-based without a significant amount of effort.
models.
Zhao et al. [18] presented a prognostics method for remaining II. HYBRID PROGNOSTICS APPROACH
useful life prediction for gears. The crack growth process was
simulated to yield normally distributed crack lengths, which More literature about prognostics models can be found in
were used within a Bayesian framework to update the param- reviews such as statistical data-driven RUL methods [2], ma-
eters of the degradation model (e.g., Paris’ law). The degrada- chinery condition based maintenance approaches[25], [26], and
tion model was initially fed by the results of a stress analysis model selection of RUL estimation by industry[24] and chal-
from a gear dynamic model or finite element model. The dis- lenges in rotating machinery prognostics [27]. Those reviews
tributions of the uncertainty factors were updated via Bayesian have addressed many aspects (e.g., model types, model selec-
inference using the condition monitoring data (simulated crack tion, and challenges, etc.) of the prognostics models. However,
lengths), and an estimation of the remaining useful life based on none of them has been specifically focusing on the hybrid prog-
the degradation model was provided. nostics approaches which leverage the advantages of different
Swanson et al. [19] proposed a Kalman filter method to model prognostics models.
the crack growth in a tensioned steel band. RUL was derived This section focuses on a review of the hybrid prognostics ap-
using the predicted modal frequency state when it reached a pre- proaches for RUL prediction. As the prognostics models are cat-
defined failure threshold. The assumptions for using a Kalman egorized as experience-based models, data-driven models, and
filter are that the system must be linear, and the process and mea- physics-based models in Section I, we review the approaches
surement noise must be white Gaussian and –independent. To using different combinations of the three categories as shown
extend Kalman filters to non-linear systems, variations such as in Fig. 2. According to our findings, the hybrid approaches can
extended Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter were pro- mainly be categorized into the following five types.
posed. Hu et al. [20] presented a multiscale framework to ad- • H1—Experience-based model + data-driven model
dress different timescales for state of charge (SOC), which is • H2—Experience-based model + physics-based model
quickly time-varying, and state of health (SOH), which changes • H3—Data-driven model + data-driven model
on a larger timescale, for estimation of Lithium-ion battery life. • H4—Data-driven model + physics-based model
The framework used extended Kalman filter approaches, named • H5—Experience-based model + data-driven model +
micro EKF, and macro EKF, to deal with the quick, and large physics-based model
time scales, respectively. Discrete time state space models were
A. H1—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Experience-Based
used with multiple timescales to address the different time in-
Models and Data-Driven Models
tervals for the evolution of SOC and SOH, i.e., to monitor and
predict a system’s health state with time scale separation. Experience-based models incorporate domain knowledge in
Not bound by the linear system or Gaussian noise assumption, the reasoning. Expert systems cannot directly deal with con-
particle filters were proposed for RUL prediction. For example, tinuous variables, and the output of expert systems is often a
Daigle and Goebel [21] overcame the problem of limited sensor discrete event. These reasons have limited the capability of ex-
data by applying a model-based prognostics approach using par- pert systems to derive RUL. Fuzzy-logic systems can deal with
ticle filters with application on solenoid valves. While the actual continuous variables by converting them into fuzzy represen-
intention was the implementation of a computational efficient tations using appropriate designed membership functions, and
life estimation. The thrust-force and the torque of drill bits

were forecasted with trained focused time-lagged feedforward
neural networks (focused TLFNs). The focused TLFNs served
as the inputs for a fuzzy inference system (FIS), which was
the Sugeno FIS. Expert knowledge was incorporated into the
degradation signal space to define failure models using fuzzy
inference. Remaining useful life prediction was accomplished
based on the reliability estimation associated with the forecast
states from the focused TLFNs. Zhang et al. [31] proposed an
architecture for an integrated fault diagnostics and prognostics
system which was demonstrated on a process simulator. A
fuzzy logic module was developed directly from user experi-
ence, simulated models, and experiment data to estimate the
system’s fault state. The wavelet neural network method was
also used as an alternative diagnostics method. Two modules
were built to predict the RUL of a failing component. One
was built using a dynamic wavelet neural network (DWNN)
Fig. 2. Hybrid prognostics models. to project the current state of the faulty component into the
future to reveal the time evolution to calculate the RUL. The
other was a confidence prediction neural network (CPNN)
the output can be converted into numerical results using an- used to estimate the prediction uncertainties and confidence
other set of membership functions. They still significantly rely distributions.
on the expert to specify the underline system behavior to de- The hybrid approaches in the H1 category address the integra-
velop a complete fuzzy representation. Data-driven models can tion of domain knowledge into data-driven models for prognos-
easily handle continuous data and learn the correlation and the tics. Domain knowledge is mainly used to support the determi-
underline structure only from data. H1 approaches can provide nation of system fault states, while data-driven models are used
the flexibility of integrating domain knowledge into data-driven to refine the rules generated from expert knowledge, and to per-
models for system state or health level estimation, based on form the actual RUL prediction. Introducing domain knowledge
which RUL can be calculated for prognostics purposes. into data-driven models helps foresee the dynamics of degra-
Garga et al. [28] presented an automated reasoning method dation due to various operating conditions and failure modes,
which integrated explicit domain knowledge (in the form of which can reduce the uncertainty of the prediction result gen-
rules) and a feedforward neural network trained with sensor erated by purely data-driven models. In addition, it adapts ma-
data to assess the condition of the an industrial gearbox. By chine specific hypotheses and learns the machine nominal and
integrating the rule-based domain knowledge as well as test faulty levels in absence of failure data. Data-driven models re-
and operational data from the machine to train the feedforward sult in more parsimonious representation of the explicit knowl-
neural network, redundant rules were combined and logical in- edge, which adds practical benefit to decision making reasoning.
consistencies were identified. A neural network was first trained Even though expert knowledge is introduced, it is not a guar-
to learn the explicit rule set from domain experts. A second antee that all prevalent failure modes can be captured. A novelty
neural network was trained for reasoning the system health detection mechanism may be needed in the data-driven predic-
level, incorporating the operational data and measurements tion model to discover any unforeseen failure mode. As pointed
which were converted into fuzzy variables. Although some out in [30], the inability of the expert knowledge to capture
results were presented to show the time to failure prediction, the intermediate states (i.e., neither brand new nor totally worn
the exact method for RUL prediction was not described, and out) may jeopardize the interpolation capability of the reasoning
the prediction performance was not quantified. Nonetheless, system. However, this issue may not be significant from the
the health level estimated by the hybrid model can be used practical point of view because the ultimate goal is to estimate
to extrapolate the RUL. Satish and Sarma [29] employed RUL using long-term prediction instead of predicting interme-
both neural networks and fuzzy logic for state estimation diate life residual time.
and remaining useful life prediction. The neural network was
combined with fuzzy logic to create a fuzzy back propagation B. H2—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Experience-Based
network (fuzzy BP network). The choice of the membership Models and Physics-Based Models
function (LR-type, with L for Left, R for Right) was suggested Approaches in the H2 category integrate both experience-
by domain knowledge. While one fuzzy BP network has been based models and physics-based models, in which the output
used to assess the system health state, a second one was used of the experience-based model is often used as an auxiliary to
to predict the RUL based on the inputs plus the output (health enhance the physics-based model. The experience-based model
indicator) of the first fuzzy BP network. Chinnam and Baruah can also be found to estimate the system health state based on
[30] presented a neuro-fuzzy inference model approach which which RUL can be predicted.
relies on strong experimental and domain expert knowledge, Swanson [32] presented a prognostics methodology with a
and applied it to cutting tool monitoring and remaining useful Kalman filter and fuzzy logic, and applied it to crack growth
in tension steels bands. Using vibration mode frequencies as two data-driven approaches. The health index of the system
responsive fault features, the Kalman filter performed feature state was calculated by the minimum quantization error (MQE)
tracking and forecasting, and the remaining useful life was es- of the established baseline self-organizing maps trained with
timated using Newton’s method. While the Kalman filter fa- vibration features. The health index was then used as input
cilitated feature trending and prediction, the failure threshold to back propagation neural networks for remaining useful life
strongly depended on the operational conditions of the system, prediction. Yan and Lee [36] estimated the tool wear condition
e.g., the vibrations in a bearing under dynamic load would be (state) in drilling operations via logistic regression analysis
expected to be much higher than that under constant load. To combined with a maximum likelihood technique (for parameter
consider various operational conditions, fuzzy logic was used estimation), based on features extracted from vibration signals
to adapt failure thresholds to the operational conditions. By- using wavelet packet decomposition. Another data-driven
ington et al. [33] presented a methodology for aircraft actuator model, which was an autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
components’ RUL prediction. A fuzzy logic process was im- model, was applied to predict the remaining useful life based
plemented to quantify the level of damage (damage index) of on the estimated tool wear condition.
the system using a predefined set of rules tailored from knowl- There are many other articles, which are not all listed here,
edge of the system and engineering judgment. A physics-based that fall into this hybrid approach category. Both data-driven
method (Kalman filtering) was then applied to predict the pro- health state estimation methods and data-driven prediction
gression of the damage. methods have been extensively studied in the past. It is nat-
With regard to the general framework and interface to inte- ural to use them sequentially for degradation detection and
grate information from different types of models, the hybrid prediction. This type of approach can be easily adopted, and
approaches in the H2 category is similar to the approaches sometimes without demanding data requirements. For example,
in the H1 category. Expert knowledge is mainly used to an unsupervised learning model can be used to build a de-
support the determination of system fault states and catego- scription of the nominal behavior (baseline) of a system using
rization of damage levels; while, instead of using data-driven only data collected during normal operation. The degradation
models, physics-based models are used to perform the actual level can be assessed by continuously calculating a degradation
RUL prediction. The H2 approaches share similar advantages index using the deviation from the established baseline. The
and disadvantages with the H1 approaches, as mentioned in extent of the deviation can be extrapolated to predict the future
Section II-A, from a hybrid approach point of view. Besides, trending using a time series prediction method. RUL can be
the advantages and disadvantages between data-driven models estimated when the predicted deviation exceeds a predefined
and physics-based models have been briefly described in threshold. However, it is not a trivial task to determine the
Sections I-B and I-C. threshold of the degradation index. The degradation index
itself might be a deviation measure estimated from multiple
C. H3—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Multiple Data-Driven sensor measurements. In this case, it is hard to determine the
Models physical meaning of the degradation index, even with domain
Approaches in the H3 category are mainly two-fold. On one knowledge. In addition, without understanding the underline
hand, a data-driven model can be used to estimate the internal (physical) degradation or fault propagation model, relying on
system state (e.g., crack growth rate) when it is not directly mea- the prediction model fitted from a limited amount of data may
surable from the sensor signals. The estimated system state can introduce immeasurable uncertainty to the prediction result.
then be used to extrapolate the future system state to predict With regards to the latter approach, the following literature
RUL using another data-driven model. On the other hand, dif- predicted the system RUL by fusing results from multiple data-
ferent competing data-driven models can be developed for RUL driven models. Gebraeel et al. [13] established the relation-
prediction purposes. The results of different models can be ag- ship between the vibration signals and the bearing operating
gregated to improve the prediction performance by a carefully time using feedforward backpropagation neural networks. Each
designed fusion mechanism. neural network was trained on the data collected from one of
Researchers addressed the first approach of implementing the 25 tested bearings. RUL prediction was accomplished by
a hybrid prognostics approach combining two data-driven weighting the outputs of all 25 neural networks using Weight
models with one estimating and one predicting the system Application to Failure Times (WAFT) and Weight Application
state. Liu et al. [34] presented an approach which combined to Exponential Parameters (WAEP) methods. Peel [37] used an
least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) with hidden ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis func-
Markov models (HMMs) for bearing remaining useful life tion (RBF) neural networks for RUL prediction. The neural net-
prediction. Features extracted from vibration sensor signals works provided nonlinear mapping from sensor measurements
were used for offline and online training of the HMMs with to the state space. The neural network ensemble was created
health states representing different health levels during the using a tournament style heuristic. In addition, a Kalman filter
system degradation. LSSVR was used to predict the trend of provided a mechanism to fuse the multiple ensemble outputs
features to infer the future health states through the HMMs and over time, and accomplish RUL prediction. Similarly, Heimes
log-likelihood probabilities. Eventually, the remaining useful [38] applied a recurrent neural network trained by back-propa-
life was estimated as the time until the last health state, e.g., gation method, incorporating an extended Kalman filter to filter
the system failed, of the HMMs was reached. Huang et al. the output. The remaining useful life for the simulated aircraft
[35] predicted the remaining useful life of bearings combining engines was calculated by simply averaging the outputs of the
three best models. Du et al. [39] developed a selective neural

network ensemble model for bearing degradation time (the time
period between the onset of the defect and the time of failure)
prediction. Time domain and frequency domain features ex-
tracted from bearing vibration signals were used as an input
for several neural networks to establish the mapping from fea-
tures to the bearing operating time. The neural networks were
created using the bagging method. Particle swarm optimization
with simulated annealing was used to select a neural network
ensemble from the networks created by bagging. The prediction
outputs of the neural networks were finally combined using the Fig. 3. A hybrid approach which uses a data-driven model to infer the mea-
majority voting technique. surement model, and a physics-based model to predict the RUL.
Building multiple data-driven models can help capture dy-
namics both in failure modes and operating conditions. Fusing
the results of multiple models can yield marked reduction in the 1) Use a Data-Driven Model to Infer a Measurement Model,
prediction error as experienced in the above examples. Not even and Use a Physics-Based Model to Predict Remaining Useful
data-driven models but also physics-based models can be incor- Life: The internal system state (e.g., degradation) of a com-
porated in the multiple models to shed light on potentially more plex system is usually not directly accessible to sensor measure-
accurate predictions. Because the final result depends heavily ments. Hence, inference needs to be made from measurements
on the fusion method, it is critical to carefully design a fusion to indirectly estimate the internal system state, based on which
mechanism. In addition, building multiple models is time con- the RUL is predicted using a physics-based model. The map-
suming and computationally intensive, which is limited in cer- ping from the measurement to the internal system state is the
tain applications. so-called measurement model, which was also called the mea-
surement equation in literature. Many data-driven approaches
have been applied to build the measurement model which can
D. H4—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Data-Driven Models also be used to detect incipient faults, which triggers RUL pre-
and Physics-Based Models diction. The structure of this type of hybrid approach is shown
in Fig. 3. A data-driven method is used to map the rela-
There is no universally best prognostics model as each model tionship between the system health state and appropriate fea-
has its advantages and disadvantages, and sometimes the right tures , extracted from raw sensor measurements using signal
model is case specific. For example, Celaya et al. [40] presented processing techniques (optional). An anomaly detection (e.g.,
an approach for the remaining useful life prediction of power comparison of observations against a healthy baseline) is per-
devices using both data-driven and model-based prognostics al- formed, and the RUL prediction is triggered once an incipient
gorithms based on the drain to source ON state resistance as the fault has been detected. The system state forecasting is accom-
health indicator. The data-driven approach was accomplished plished via a physics-based method that is capable of mod-
by a Gaussian process regression. The model-based approaches eling the degradation process with an analytical model, e.g.,
were an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter. Celaya et Paris’ law. Note that the physics-based degradation model as de-
al. conducted experiments on power devices under accelerated noted above implies a first order hidden Markov process. Higher
aging tests, and compared the results using prognostic perfor- order models can also be used. The uncertainties in the measure-
mance metrics. For this application, the particle filter method ment and degradation model are denoted as and , respec-
showed the best performance in terms of the - prognostics tively. The physics-based model is often selected based on the
metric because the degradation model was of an exponential degradation progress, e.g., either a fault initiation or a propaga-
type with two parameters that were preferably estimated online tion model can be used according to the deterioration status.
within the Bayesian framework. The Gaussian process regres- Orchard and Vachtsevanos [41] presented a particle filter-
sion was not able to make reasonable RUL predictions before a based framework for failure prognostics of nonlinear and non-
distinct (exponential) degradation behavior emerged. However, Gaussian systems. Features extracted from the vibration data
in the reverse situation, if the degradation did not actually follow spectrum (fundamental harmonics and sidebands) were used
the exponential model due to measurement noise or different for crack length estimation using a data-driven nonlinear map-
failure modes, a more accurate result can be derived from the ping as the measurement model. The particle filter approach re-
data-driven approach by comparing the model to the historical lied on a mathematical system model (Paris’ law with param-
degradation patterns. eters determined by finite element analysis) as a crack prop-
It is intuitive to use a hybrid approach via combining data- agation model, and predicted the probability density function
driven models and physics-based models to leverage both their (PDF) of the underlying nonlinear state space model (with un-
strengths to improve prediction performance. H4 approaches known time-varying parameters). The state PDF was used to
have been extensively studied in the literature. Hence, this type predict the fault indicator evolution, and to obtain the PDF of
of hybrid approach is described in the following four subsec- the remaining useful life of UH-60 planetary carrier plates. Re-
tions in detail based on the interfaces among different types of searchers at the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering
models. (CALCE–Pecht et al. [42]–[47]) developed in recent years a
prognostics framework that incorporates both data-driven and greatly affected the failure degradation model. Saha et al. [52]
physics-based models, and provided reaming useful life esti- proposed a relevance vector machine (RVM) method to esti-
mates for electronics systems. A data-driven model was first mate the internal parameters of a battery model and the depen-
used to estimate the system state, and detect anomalies by com- dency with time from the extracted features such as voltage, cur-
paring the system conditions with a healthy baseline. Then, ap- rent, power, impedance, frequency, and temperature readings.
propriate physics-based models (e.g., particle filters) were used The RVM method was used to estimate the initial internal bat-
to perform RUL predictions by projecting the future system tery state in the physics-based particle filter method. The RUL
state. Mohanty et al. [48] presented a hybrid model of fatigue was then predicted by propagating the trajectory of the parti-
crack growth in metallic alloys, combining a physics-based state cles. This work was extended in [53] to reduce the uncertainty
space model and a data-driven kernel based Gaussian process in the prediction result using a Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filter
regression model. The state space model was estimated with un- (RBPF) framework. Baraldi et al. [54] presented and evaluated
derlying physics based on the crack closure concept used in the a hybrid approach concerning the accuracy of the remaining
FASTRAN-II model, which incorporated a constraint factor ac- useful life prediction, and the capability of providing an esti-
counting for the stress state on the plastic zone size. The con- mate of the uncertainty. A bagged ensemble of artificial neural
straint factor was calculated with crack length estimations from networks was proposed to model the measurement equation in
the Gaussian process regression. With this constraint factor, the a particle filter scheme, i.e., a data-driven approach was adapted
future crack length was recalculated using the physics-based to build an empirical measurement model (from training data)
state space model. Rosunally et al. [49] used a Bayesian network of a particle filter. While the measurement model in the par-
to predict the remaining useful life of iron structures under cor- ticle filter approach was approximated by the artificial neural
rosion from physics of failure models (linear bilogarithmic law network, the model for the system degradation state evolution
for atmospheric corrosion). A data-driven method using Ma- still has to be known. The authors’ future objective is the sub-
halanobis distance (MD) was used to assess the system health stitution of the system degradation state evolution model with a
status, and detect anomalies based on weight, dimension, and data-driven model, e.g., an ensemble of trained artificial neural
electrical resistance. The RUL distributions from the physics of networks, to use the particle filter scheme in those cases where
failure models and the current health status, which were derived an analytical evolution model of the system is unavailable.
from the distributions of the MD values, were used as inputs Using a data-driven model to establish a mapping from
for a Bayesian network model to obtain updated RUL predic- the measurement to the internal state makes it possible to use
tions. Peng et al. [50] presented an integrated fatigue damage a mathematically sound physics-based model to predict the
diagnostics and prognostics approach. The crack length in fuse- system internal health. Ideally, data collected from the entire
lage lap joints was estimated via lamb wave-based measure- life cycle should be used to establish an exhaustive mapping
ments with piezoelectric actuators and sensors, which were re- (e.g., the vibration root mean square and the corresponding ma-
lated to the crack length through a data-driven multivariate re- terial crack length). Because the physics model is often selected
gression model. The data-driven model was based on signal fea- from a fault initiation or a propagation model, data collected
tures, such as correlation coefficient, phase change, and am- after the detection of an incipient fault (e.g., a small crack) is
plitude, extracted through comparison of the actual received the most effective to build the mapping. In some applications,
signal with a healthy baseline signal. The model parameters of the ground truth of the system health indicator (e.g., the state
the multivariate regression were finally estimated via learning of charge of a lithium-ion battery) is not easy to be measured
from several experiments. Using the estimated crack length and accurately. The date-driven measurement model implicitly
a small time scale model, a Bayes’ theorem based prognostic incorporates uncertainty into the physics-based model, but it
method (maximum relative entropy) was used to incorporate the also avoids exponential error accumulation due to the Paris
physics-based small time scale model into the measurements, type formulation [48].
and thus reduce the uncertainty. Using a sampling technique 2) Use a Data-Driven Model to Replace a System Model in a
(Markov chain Monte Carlo), the crack length was estimated Physics-Based Model: Similar to inferring the internal system
within the Bayesian updating framework resulting in an im- state from measurements by replacing the measurement model
proved state tracking accuracy compared to the deterministic with a data-driven technique as described in Section II-D.1, the
small time scale model. Irving et al. [51] presented a hybrid ap- fault propagation model can also be replaced with a data-driven
proach for crack length forecasting of hydrogen containing pres- model. As expected in [54], the lack of an analytical degrada-
sure vessels. While using a physics-based approach (Paris’ law tion model can be compensated by replacing this model with a
fracture mechanics model) for prediction, historical data were data-driven technique. In this approach, the modeling of physics
employed to identify unacceptable crack forecasts made by a was not explicit in an analytical equation. Instead, the physics of
data-driven approach. Any crack forecast exceeding the min- the degradation progression was considered, and the parameter
imum or maximum crack lengths for each cycle (obtained from estimation process is similar to the framework of the filtering
historical data) was considered as not feasible, and replaced by method (e.g., particle filter). Hence, this approach is still con-
the minimum or maximum values, respectively. In this method, sidered as a hybrid approach in the H4 category. The structure
the data-driven approach was used to estimate the feasibility of of this type of hybrid approach is shown in Fig. 4. In Section I-C,
the estimated system state, which was the crack length. The re- the system degradation or fault progression is modeled with an
sult showed that the hybrid approach did appear to correct the analytical model based on the underlying physics (e.g., Paris’
physics-based model when the change of operating conditions law). However, deriving sophisticated analytical models can be
issue of updating the particle weights in long-term prediction

with no new measurement. The fist approach assumed that
the initial weights of the particles were a good representation
for the current state probability distribution function (pdf). By
constructing a partition of the random variable domain based on
the system state, the updated particle weights were calculated
by the probability of the system state in each partition. The
second approach proposed a method to resample the predicted
state pdf instead of recalculating the particle weights, which
reduced the computation burden. The third approach stated
Fig. 4. A hybrid approach which uses a data-driven model to replace a system that the error that can be generated by considering the particle
model in a physics-based model. weights invariant for future time was negligible comparing to
other sources. Hence, the particle weights were kept invariant in
the long-term prediction. However, using the above-mentioned
tedious or even impossible due to the complexity of the degra- three approaches, the prediction model parameters were still
dation mechanism. In those cases, a data-driven method not updated using new measurements during the long-term
that models the progress of degradation can be used to incorpo- prediction period. The prediction accuracy could be low in
rate this knowledge in the prognostics algorithm. As mentioned many applications because the identified model during the state
in Section II-D.1, data-driven algorithms can further bridge the estimation period may not be accurate and robust [58].
gap between measurable features and the internal system health To address this issue, Liu et al. [58] integrated data-driven
state, i.e., infer the health state from measurements via appro- prognostics together with a physics-based particle filter for
priate measurement models. Chen et al. [55], [56] replaced the system state prediction. Particle filtering was used for system
(usually physics-based) system degradation model in a prog- state estimation and parameter identification based on Bayesian
nostics approach with an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system learning. Besides estimating the system state, a data-driven
(ANFIS) trained with historical data to model the degradation predictor (neural network, neural fuzzy, or recurrent neural
process in case an analytical model was not available. Even fuzzy model) was further used to estimate the future measure-
though Chen et al. only applied their prognostics algorithm on ments evolution, which was incorporated into the particle filter
crack growth prognostics in a helicopter planetary gear plate and learning structure. The predicted measurement was used as a
bearings, where Paris’ law is well known as a degradation mech- new measurement to update the weights of the particles in the
anism model, the generalization capabilities of this approach long-term prediction for remaining useful life estimation. Using
to more complex systems are obvious. Eventually, the trained this hybrid approach, the accuracy of remaining useful life pre-
ANFIS constituted the -th order hidden Markov model within dictions of Lithium-ion batteries was improved compared to a
a high-order particle filter approach. The particle filter carried single prognostics approach with either a particle filter or one of
out -step ahead predictions to extrapolate the system fault in- the data-driven predictors. The structure of this type of hybrid
dicator and remaining useful life probability density functions. approach is shown in Fig. 5. During the prediction phase of
This type of hybrid approach provides an alternative when the a prognostics algorithm, no new measurements are available.
derivation of the physics-based model is complex or when it is Hence, a data-driven prediction model can be used to
prohibitive to estimate the parameters of a fault growth model generate predicted measurements from historical observa-
(e.g., when a detailed Finite Element Analysis model is needed) tions. can be used within the physics-based state prediction
or both. Using a data-driven model to replace the physics-based algorithm, e.g., in a particle filter, to update the particle weights
system model reduces the amount of modeling effort, and the during the prediction phase. As mentioned in Section II-D.1,
method has more potential to be applied to different systems. data-driven methods can be further used to infer the system
However, limitations are in the availability and exhaustiveness health state from the actual and predicted measurements in case
of the data. If the data are insufficient to be able to build a data- the health state is not directly measurable.
driven model as a substitute of the system model, it introduces This type of hybrid approach further addresses the issue
uncertainties in the prediction. For example, if the system model of data availability when updating a physics-based prediction
is significantly affected by the alternating operating conditions, model during long-term prediction using a data-driven model
it is almost impossible to capture the fault propagation patterns to predict future measurement. If the future measurement can
without data collected under all operating conditions. be accurately predicted by the data-driven model, it indeed
3) Use a Data-Driven Model to Predict Future Measure- can correct the physics-based model in long-term prediction,
ments, and Use a Physics-Based Model to Predict RUL: especially when the degradation doesn’t quite follow the fault
Physics-based models have been used for prognostics ap- growth model. The trade-off is that, if the data-driven predic-
plications, and many methods (e.g., Bayesian update) have tion performs poorly on future measurement prediction, the
been employed to update the model parameters with new prediction result can significantly derail, and it could be worse
measurement. When generating long-term predictions (e.g., than the physics-based model prediction. The challenges are
-step ahead prediction) for RUL estimation, using particle how to ensure the data-driven prediction accuracy, and whether
filter as an example, acquisition of new measurement is not a model switching or fusion mechanism can be designed to
available. Three approaches were proposed in [57] to solve the balance the two types of prediction models.
Fig. 6. A hybrid approach which uses a data-driven model and a physics-based

Fig. 5. A hybrid approach which uses a data-driven model to predict the future model for prediction, and fuses their results.
measurements, and a physics-based model to predict the RUL.
E. H5—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Experience-Based

4) Use a Data-Driven Model and a Physics-Based Model Models, Data-Driven Models and Physics-Based Models
for Prediction, and Fuse Their Results: This type of hy- The full strength of prognostics can be unveiled when
brid approach simultaneously predicts a system’s RUL with incorporating the strengths of different prognostics models,
two prognostics models, i.e., a data-driven model and a i.e., experience-based, data-driven, and physics-based models.
physics-based model. The final RUL prediction result is calcu- Physics-based models characterize the degrading system
lated by fusing the results of the two prognostics models. It can by using analytical descriptions of the underlying physical
improve the prediction accuracy, and narrow the confidence principals, and hence provide precise predictions, when the
boundaries. The structure of this type of hybrid approach is physics is well known for all operating conditions and failure
shown in Fig. 6. A physics-based ( ) and a data-driven modes. However, this condition is rarely the case in industrial
( ) RUL prediction model are run simultaneously. The applications. Data-driven prognostics models can mitigate this
physics-based prediction model incorporates knowledge of problem due to their capability to model only from historical
the system degradation process. The data-driven prediction data without sufficient knowledge about the underlying physics
model can use techniques like time-series forecasting to predict of degradation. Experience and expert knowledge is highly
the system state based on historical observations. The RUL valuable, and can enhance the prognostics capabilities of both
is estimated via a reasonable fusion (e.g., average, weighted physics-based and data-driven models, which eventually moti-
average, Dempster-Shafer regression, kernel regression, etc.) vates the application of using all three prognostics models in a
of the physics-based and the data-driven RUL estimates. hybrid approach.
Goebel et al. [59] presented a fusion of competing prediction Bartram and Mahadevan [61] presented a general framework
algorithms for prognostics, incorporating both data-driven and for diagnostics and prognostics incorporating heterogeneous
physics-based approaches, and combining their prediction in information by using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN).
a way that can reduce the prediction uncertainty. While the The DBN fused information from different sources to improve
physics-based approach used detailed physical models of the the diagnostics and prognostics accuracy compared to a single
underlying system (e.g., bearing spall growth), the data-driven information source. The authors applied this framework to
approach used pairs of measurement data (e.g., speed and load) a cantilever beam example with a possible loose bolt at the
connection or a crack in the middle of the span. The integration
and corresponding health states for learning a spall length
of heterogeneous information into the DBN model was accom-
model. Predictions of both estimators and their results were
plished by incorporating: i) expert opinion, ii) operational data
combined to improve the reliability of the remaining useful
(passive observations of the system during its operation), iii)
life prediction. Negotiation of the different damage estimates
laboratory data (active observations of the system during out-
was proposed using a Dempster-Shafer regression. Goebel et side intervention, parameter learning algorithms), iv) published
al. continued with their efforts in a second work [60], where reliability data, and v) mathematical behavior models (either
they additionally incorporated an ANFIS for health assessment physics-based such as finite element and mathematical, or
based on vibration and debris monitoring data. Moreover, a data-based and empirical approaches such as neural networks).
kernel regression instead of a Dempster-Shafer regression was The DBN was constructed from heterogeneous information,
used to aggregate the different damage estimates. and was used to track the system state and detect faults by
This type of hybrid approach shares similar advantages and monitoring the Bayes’ factor of the system state estimate. The
disadvantages with multiple data-driven models as mentioned filtering and prediction was accomplished by a particle filter.
in Section II-C. The methods take more engineering effort, and Xu and Xu [62] presented a prognostic fusion model built upon
may not be feasible for practical applications. However, the ben- an optimal linear combination of the RUL estimates of single
efit could potentially be rewarding. Again, similar to fusing mul- prognostic algorithms by using the absolute value and predic-
tiple data-driven models together, one of the most critical chal- tion error as the index of prognostic precision. It outlined how
lenges is the design of an appropriate fusion mechanism. to fuse single prognostic algorithms, i.e., knowledge-based,
data-driven, and model-based algorithms, representing the three

main approaches for prognostics. The hybrid model was applied
to a case study on remaining useful life prediction of avionics
radar magnetrons, and incorporated failure mode and effects
analysis (FMEA), an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) Fig. 7. Lumped parameter model of a lithium-ion battery for non-dynamic bat-
model, and support vector machines and fuzzy logic combined tery applications, with is Warburg impedance, is charge transfer re-
sistance, is electrolyte resitance, is dual layer capacitance [65].
with neural network. Orsagh et al. [63] used model-based
information to predict the reaming useful life of bearings with
bearing spall initiation and propagation models. Different
approach, a hybrid prognostics method in category H4 will be
vibration features were negotiated using the Dempster-Shafer
proposed and applied to a battery RUL prediction problem as
approach, and served as a failure precursor to switch from
an example to show the potential benefit that a hybrid approach
the spall initiation model to the spall propagation model. In
can bring. This section will first describe the goal of battery
the proposed framework, the feature-based (data-driven) RUL
prediction result, physics-based RUL prediction results, opera- RUL prediction, and the data that will be used. Second, the
tional statistics, failure rates, and experience-based information proposed hybrid prognostics method will be described in detail.
were fused by a probabilistic update process to predict future Third, the prediction results of a traditional physics-based
failure probability. Gola and Nystad [64] presented a diagnostic model and the proposed method will be analyzed. Finally,
and prognostic scheme for assessing the health state of a choke the comparison of the results will be made, followed by a
valve under erosion, and estimating its remaining useful life. discussion of further improvement.
The valve erosion state (as a system health indicator) could
A. Battery RUL Prediction and Dataset
be precisely calculated based on the generic choke valve fluid
dynamic model (physics-based model), which accounted for all The determination of the state of charge (SOC) as well as
relevant physical process parameters, and incorporated them in the determination and prediction of the state of health (SOH)
an analytical expression. However, the measurements required of batteries plays an increasingly important role to ensure the
for this calculation were not accessible under normal operating reliability and safety of various battery powered and supported
conditions, which led to very imprecise health estimates (noisy devices. The SOC ranges from (empty) to
and non-monotonic). To solve this issue, Gola and Nystad (full), and indicates the current charge level of the battery
developed a concept called Virtual Sensor. This concept used while being in use. The SOH is a figure of merit to assess the
an ensemble of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs) battery’s current health state within its life cycle, and thus can be
which were trained with appropriate input (pressure drop, choke used as a precursor for an approaching failure. One of the possi-
opening, fluid and gas flow rates) and output (chocke valve bilities to define the SOH is based on the internal battery param-
erosion state) datasets. The median of the individual ensemble eters (e.g., resistance). Fig. 7 depicts a lumped parameter battery
outputs was filtered with moving average and moving maxima model for lithium-ion cells. The model parameters change with
filters. The filtered result was fed to a statistical approach various aging and fault processes like plate sulfation, passiva-
based on the gamma process for degradation prediction and tion, and corrosion [65]. The changes of the internal battery pa-
remaining useful life estimation. A state-based approach was rameters are used to track the battery degradation process and
used for the gamma process, which allowed the incorporation assess the current SOH. The aim of a prognostics approach is to
of a predefined list of health states based on highly valuable identify and predict the health parameters, and give an estima-
expert analysis and domain knowledge to reduce prediction
tion of the RUL. We identified the batteries’ internal resistance
uncertainty.
as implied by the lumped parameter model as a suitable health
Hybrid approaches in the H5 category may be extremely
indicator and failure precursor, and conducted RUL predictions
difficult and impractical to implement due to the difficulty
based on the evolution of this resistance.
that might be encountered by each type of model (experi-
ence-based, physics-based, or data-driven models). However, The proposed approach was applied for RUL predictions of
it is potentially beneficial to leverage the strengths of all types lithium-ion batteries using datasets provided by the Prognostics
of models and fuse all types of information (e.g., domain CoE at NASA Ames [66]. The lithium-ion batteries were run
knowledge, maintenance feedback, and condition data and through a sequence of charge, discharge, and impedance tests at
physics). Challenges remain in how to aggregate results from different temperatures, and the capacity as well as the voltage
different competing models, how to design an appropriate and current curves were measured in each discharging cycle.
fusing mechanism to integrate heterogeneous information, and The selected set of batteries was cycle-life tested at tempera-
how to utilize data-driven models to reduce the prediction tures of 4 and 24 . Discharging was carried out in a con-
uncertainty. More challenges of applying hybrid prognostics stant current mode (fixed current load) at 2 A until the voltage
approaches are summarized in Section IV. dropped from an initial 4.2 V to 2.2 V, and 2.7 V for temper-
atures of 4 , and 24 , respectively. The tests were repeated
until the capacity faded to 1.4 Ahr, and 1.6 Ahr for temperatures
III. CASE STUDY
of 4 , and 24 , respectively (end of life).
In the literature review, we found that a lot of research has
been concentrated on the hybrid approaches of combining B. The Proposed Hybrid Method
data-driven models and physics-based models as described in The proposed hybrid prognostics method estimated re-
Section II-D. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid maining useful life (RUL) by combining the physics-based
in every iteration step (bootstrap particle filter) with a system-

atic resampling scheme. This generic particle filter approach
was adapted to the application by identifying the measurement
model, the system model, and the initial state distribution, as
well as the noise terms.
The internal battery resistance was calculated by summa-
rizing the resistances and at the end of the discharge
cycle, i.e., . The resistances were
derived from the discharge curve logged during each discharge
cycle based on the model presented by Luo et al. [68]. Note that
only the voltage and current measured at each discharge cycle
were required to estimate the internal battery resistance. While
the battery aging proceeded, the internal resistance evolved
Fig. 8. The proposed hybrid prognostics method. according to an exponential degradation model [58]:
models and data-driven models. The physics-based model

which described the system degradation in the form of an
analytical system equation (degradation model) was available.
While the degradation model described the general progression (1)
of degradation, there might always be deviations from this
model in real applications. Data-driven prediction techniques where the vector denoted the internal battery resistance, and
that incorporate historical data from both comparable devices the vector denoted the exponential decay parameter (model
and the very device under test can contribute to the prediction parameter). was the state vector. The noise samples ,
in a way that improves the prediction accuracy and lowers , and were zero-mean normal distributions. During the
the uncertainty boundaries. The detailed interface between the state tracking phase, the battery’s capacities were provided as
physics-based model and the data-driven model was shown in measurements, which necessitated a measurement model (
Fig. 8. ) that derived the battery’s capacity from the in-
The standard particle filter state estimation process was re- ternal resistance.
tained as the physics-based model. In this application, it is nec- 2) The Data-Driven Model: Two data-driven models were
essary to distinguish between the measurements and the internal applied in the proposed hybrid approach. One was called the
state which is either not directly measurable or uncertain when measurement model, which was used to establish the mapping
measured. Particle filtering was applied to solve the recursive, from the indirectly measurable battery internal state to the mea-
nonlinear Bayesian state estimation problem. During the state surement. The other one was called the measurement predic-
estimation or tracking phase of the particle filter algorithm, di- tion model, which was trained to predict the future measurement
rect measurements of the battery’s capacity were provided. from the historical data.
The internal state was the battery’s internal resistance as deter- • Measurement Model
mined by (see Fig. 7). Support vector regressions (SVR) with training on five
The particle filter algorithm required a measurement model batteries was adopted to build the measurement model,
and a system model i.e., represents the SVR model. The SVR model was
for state tracking. A data-driven approach predicted the mea- created as an epsilon-SVR with a Gaussian radial basis
surements during the state prediction phase. As a result, the state function kernel , with
tracking and the state prediction process were accomplished in . Datasets of run-to-failure tests from five batteries
the same way because measurements are available in both cases. were used for model training, i.e., the capacities measured
A second data-driven model served as a replacement for an an- for each discharge cycle were used as training targets, and
alytical measurement equation. This framework can be used in the corresponding internal resistances derived from the dis-
any application where knowledge about the degradation process charge curves were the training instances (the capacity was
and historical data or training data are available. measured within the same discharge cycles). The trained
1) The Physics-Based Model: The system degradation was SVR model was eventually used to estimate the capacity
assumed to be a first-order Markov process, i.e., the current state of the test battery from the internal resistance obtained
was only dependent upon the last state. Ensuring from the defini- from particle filtering. One major source of uncertainty
tion of the initial state (probability density function) pdf , and potential deviation of the estimated capacity from the
the state probability transition density , and the real, measured capacity (ground truth) was introduced by
marginal filtering density , the latent system state the SVR model. Because the precision of the SVR model
was estimated by the procedures described in [58]. To avoid the highly depended on the extent and completeness of the
degeneracy problem of the particle filter algorithm (a single par- training data (the training data needed to cover the set of
ticle has a weight of (close to) one while all the other particles testing instances sufficiently), testing data that was not cov-
have weights of (close to) zero [67]), resampling was performed ered by the training data led to imprecise or even erroneous
results. Adequate training data samples were important to

ensure the model accuracy.
• Measurement Prediction Model
A similarity based prediction method was proposed to pre-
dict the degradation pattern of the battery capacity based
on historical measurements. The predicted capacity values
served as new measurements that were fed into the par-
ticle filter algorithm. Apart from a necessarily higher un-
certainty term in the measurement equation, state predic-
tion was eventually performed in the exact same way as
state tracking and estimation. Unlike many other machine
learning algorithms, the proposed similarity based predic-
tion method did not require a training phase. The method
rather searched for the historical set of capacity measure-
ments from a single battery that had a current measure that
was the most similar to the current measurements of the Fig. 9. The prediction performance of the standard particle filter and the pro-
posed hybrid approach.
battery under test at time . The capacity value at time
was determined by the capacity value of the selected
historical set of capacity measurements at time . Fur-
C. RUL Prediction Result
thermore, each of the historical measurement sets can be
assigned a weight corresponding to the similarity to the The prediction performance of the standard particle filter
current measured set of capacities. The capacity value at and the proposed approach was evaluated based on an average
time was then calculated by the weighted average of 50 RUL estimations for each prediction starting from cycle
of all historical capacity measurements at time . 25 to the EOL. Fig. 9 shows RUL pdfs for particle filter, and
The similarity between the historical sets of capacity mea- the proposed hybrid prognostics method, where the prediction
surements and the current capacity measurements can be in both cases was triggered at the 41th cycle. The vertical
defined by a distance measure, e.g., Euclidean or Maha- lines indicated the mean values of the RUL pdfs, and the
lanobis distance. real RUL (ground truth), respectively. The RUL pdfs were
In summary, the standard particle filter performed state assumed to follow a normal distribution, and the corresponding
tracking in parallel with parameter identification of the system mean (RUL estimation) and standard deviation (confidence
model during the state tracking phase when actual measure- boundaries) were derived. The RUL pdf of the proposed hybrid
ments were available. The state prediction was accomplished prognostics method was not only centered closer to the real
based on the last estimated state by using the system equation RUL but also had a smaller standard deviation, and hence
(degradation model). The proposed approach was similar to narrower confidence boundaries. The RUL estimations of the
the standard particle filter during the state tracking; however, proposed hybrid prognostics method and the standard particle
the state prediction was different. For the state prediction, filter were respectively 1 cycle, and 4 cycles early; and the
new measurements were provided through a data-driven pre- standard deviations were 7 cycles, and 20 cycles, respectively.
diction of the capacity values during each discharge cycle The proposed hybrid prognostics method outperformed the
of the battery. In this particular case, a similarity prediction standard particle filter in terms of both a RUL estimation closer
(trained on run-to-failure tests of three batteries) predicted the to the real RUL and narrower confidence boundaries.
capacity measurements during the prediction phase to provide To assess the overall RUL prediction performance, the pre-
new measurements. This method provided the possibility to diction results for different prediction starting points were cal-
update the particle weights during the prediction phase, and culated. The starting point of prediction was from the 25th cycle
thus corrected an imperfect physics-based degradation model up to the 105th cycle (EOL). For each starting point, the average
or highly varying measurements at the end of the state tracking of 50 runs was used for prediction performance evaluation. The
phase. Otherwise, the significant prediction error of the internal following two criteria were used to assess the prediction per-
state can lead to wrong RUL prediction results. The presented formance in terms of both prediction accuracy and confidence
method expanded the framework presented by Liu et al. [58] boundaries.
in the way that a measurement model was introduced, which • Mean absolute error MAE [69]: the mean value of
differed from the canonical representation , i.e., the absolute difference of the predicted and the real
that accounted for those cases, where the internal state was RUL was calculated for both the particle filter method
not directly accessible or measurable. Consequently, particle ( ) and the proposed hybrid prog-
filtering with data-driven prediction of new measurements and nostics method ( ). The mean
a data-driven measurement model can build the bridge between absolute error of the particle filter method was 295.22%
purely data-driven prediction methods that do not account of that of the proposed hybrid prognostics method.
for the physical degradation process and the standard particle • Mean one standard deviation (one ) tolerance interval :
filter approach that only relies on the potentially imperfect the mean value of the one standard deviation tolerance in-
degradation model for state prediction. terval ( ) was calculated for both the particle
filter (28.5845 cycles) and the proposed hybrid prognostics

approach (12.5627 cycles). The confidence boundaries of
the particle filter method were 227.53% of that of the pro-
posed method.
The prognostics performance metrics for both prediction
techniques clearly showed that the proposed hybrid prog-
nostics method had a superior prognostics performance over
the standard particle filter method. Not only were the RUL
estimates of the proposed method closer to the real RUL, but
also this method narrowed the confidence boundaries of the
RUL estimates considerably.
D. Discussion
While the prediction of measurements via a data-driven Fig. 10. Trajectories of the exponential decay parameter.
predictor in the proposed hybrid prognostics method was
well suited to reduce the sensitivity of the standard particle
filter method to sudden changes, a question arises: should While the system degradation model defined the general prop-
the predicted measurements be considered as more reliable erties of the physics-based degradation process, the measure-
to track the system degradation than the actual physics based ment model evaluated the likelihood of the measurements given
degradation model? The key to this philosophical quandary the internal state, and hence negotiated (potentially) different
can be seen in an increased uncertainty (noise term) in the information about the system’s actual health status. The pur-
measurement equation during the prediction steps. Conse- pose of particle filtering was to identify the latent state of a
quently, the system evolution should be sufficiently robust system described by a Markov process given a set of (noisy)
to not blindly trust and follow the predicted measurements, measurements. However, an inaccurate or even faulty measure-
but rather rely on the degradation model. However, in the ment model can lead to unexpected deviations of the estimated
case of strongly deviating model parameters, e.g., caused system state. This problem occurred in the case study as follows.
by sudden changes in the measurements at the end of the Even when using the ground truth of the internal resistance, the
state tracking phase, the predicted measurements should be measurement model yielded capacity values (which were even-
able to guide the parameters back to reasonable values. The tually compared with the capacity measurements within the par-
implication of the predicted measurements therefore should ticle filter) that deviated from the measured capacity values.
be regarded as failure avoidance, not as measurements that This difference was caused by the training methodology and
are unconditionally considered as trustworthy. As shown in the character of the SVR model. Within this nonlinear regres-
Fig. 10, the system degradation model implied a degradation sion method, support vectors were created from a set of training
process of exponential type, i.e., . data that should cover the scope of the batteries’ internal resis-
This implication hardly held true for the capacity degradation tances and the corresponding capacities sufficiently. However,
process of the testing battery. Moreover, there were numerous the training data can never reflect the entire range of possible
sudden changes or spikes in the measured capacity values that degradation processes, and thus a discrepancy between the SVR
considerably differed from the assumed exponential model. The estimation and the real capacity value was introduced. Further-
exponential decay parameter was expected to be rather con- more, the SVR model with a radial basis function kernel created
stant, but the vector retrieved from the actual measurements a smooth measurement model from a (very likely) not smooth
( ) was significantly varying, set of training data, which introduced a certain deviation as well.
and manifested in the way that the real degradation process The presented case study showed that a carefully designed
significantly differed from the assumed model. Although the hybrid prognostics approach can outperform the widely used
determination of the corresponding uncertainties can be a standard particle filter approach (physics-based prognostics) in
balancing act, the superior performance of the proposed hybrid terms of both the prediction accuracy and the corresponding
prognostics method over the standard particle filter suggested uncertainty. The particle filter as de facto state-of-the-art in
that the proposed method was reasonable, and can improve physics-based prognostics lacked the robustness to manage
the prognostic performance, especially in those cases where very noisy measurements, or even sudden, but not continuous,
the measurements were very noisy and non-monotonic, or the changes in the health state of the device that falsified the
actual system degradation process significantly differed from estimated system state during the state tracking phase. Conse-
the physics-based degradation model, or both. However, the quently, the prediction performance was prone to suffer from
predicted measurements may not be considered as a panacea to a wrong identification of the system parameters. The applica-
overcome limited knowledge of the underlying physics of the tion of a data-driven prediction method within the presented
degradation process. hybrid prognostics method alleviated this risk, and greatly
The prognostics performance of the proposed hybrid prog- improves the overall prediction performance. The case study
nostics method significantly depended on the performance of on RUL prediction of lithium-ion batteries prompted that the
both the measurement model and the system degradation model. presented hybrid prognostics method can be used under limited
knowledge of the actual degradation process, and a non-distinct model without exhaustive knowledge or extensive experi-
degradation behavior. ment when the system is complex. In the case as described
in [51], the adopted physics-based model may not always
match the actual system degradation when the change of
IV. CONCLUSION
operating condition greatly affects the fault propagation
Prognostics models were introduced, and mainly catego- model. It is also critical to determine the failure threshold
rized as experience-based models, data-driven models, and in RUL prediction applications. Expert knowledge or rules
physics-based models. The concepts of those models were can help with the task, while most knowledge is subjective
introduced, followed by typical practices in the literature, and information which may have issues in robustness, consis-
the advantages and disadvantages were briefly summarized. tency, and maintenance. It is essential to thoroughly inves-
A review specifically focusing on the hybrid prognostics ap- tigate the data availability, existing knowledge, and system
proaches, which leverage the advantages of different models, information to systematically determine the appropriate
was given according to different combinations of the aforemen- type of a hybrid approach. It may also be necessary to lay
tioned three types of prognostics models. out an additional data collection plan and take into consid-
Most of the PHM literature concentrated on the hybrid eration the constraints from a business point of view (e.g.,
approach of combining data-driven models and physics-based budget and deadline).
models, as described in Section II-D. In this type of hybrid • The second challenge lies in designing the appropriate
approach, the physics-based model (e.g., particle filter) in- fusing mechanism for both heterogeneous information
corporates first principles (e.g., Paris’ law of crack growth), and competing models. Similar as experienced in [28],
and the model parameters are identified and updated with data has different formats such as continuous wave forms,
measurement data. RUL is derived by projecting the system discrete samples, if-then rules, voice recordings, text
internal state estimation to the future until a failure threshold logs, etc. Data can also be collected at different sampling
is reached. The data-driven model in this hybrid approach has rates, saved in different media, and collected with missing
been used for anomaly detection to trigger RUL prediction values. Hence, an information fusing mechanism should
process, estimation of the internal system state from measure- be well-defined to consolidate and make use of all kinds of
ment data, and as a replacement of a system degradation model data. The hybrid approach is the combination of different
in the physics-based model prediction. The hybrid prognostics models. Some competing models may generate different
models of combining data-driven models and physic-based prediction results. The answer of the result from which
models also include approaches of fusing the results obtained model should be considered as the ultimate prediction and
from separate models to improve the RUL estimation. A hybrid whether or how to aggregate the results from different
prognostics method was proposed, and a set of battery data models as the final prediction may vary case by case. The
was used as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of fusing mechanism has been successfully applied within
combining the physics-based models and data-driven models. the context of classification with ensemble methods (e.g.,
Sparse literature has mentioned the practices of using the hy- [70]) in which the output of multiple classifiers were used
brid approach which incorporates all of the experience-based to derive better result than any single classifier. Either
models, data-driven models, and physics-based models. It is heuristic or theoretically sound fusing mechanisms need
potentially beneficial to fuse all types of information (e.g., do- to be designed within the context of RUL prediction.
main knowledge, maintenance feedback, and condition data and • The third challenge is to manage the prediction uncertain-
physics), and to leverage the strengths of all types of models to ties in RUL prediction. Robust prediction under model
better manage the prediction uncertainty. Despite the opportuni- uncertainty is a main requirement for hybrid prognostics
ties brought by the hybrid approach, challenges remain in how approaches. The representation of the uncertainty for
to design the fusing method (e.g., using neural network to in- prognostics is a difficult task because prognostics involves
corporate rule based experience and condition data [28]) to inte- both subjective and objective uncertainties, and operates
grate heterogeneous information, how to aggregate results from over the time horizon from the past, through the present,
different competing models (e.g., using Dempster-Shafer-based and into the future [71]. For a single prediction model,
regression [59] or Bayesian framework [63]), and how to utilize it is possible to model the prediction in a mathemati-
data-driven models to reduce the prediction uncertainty (e.g., cally sound manor. For example, for data-driven models,
using data-driven models to estimate the measurement model the model prediction uncertainty for an auto-regressive
[54] or replace a system model [55]). We summarize the future moving average model, and for a neural network model,
challenges of a hybrid prognostics approach as follows. can be modeled as described in[72], and [73], respectively.
• The first challenge is how to determine the right type of For physics-based models, three methods were proposed
hybrid approach depending on the available data and in- in [57] to model prediction uncertainty of long-term pre-
formation. It is ideal to develop a RUL prediction model diction using the particle filter method. When combining
based on few data or no data, especially for newly commis- multiple prediction models, especially in different cate-
sioned systems. However, the data quantity and complete- gories, the uncertainty management becomes a non-trivial
ness would not be sufficient for many data-driven models. issue, not mentioning how the information and model fu-
Physics-based models can shed some light in this case, sion mechanism are designed. Sparse literature mentioned
while it is generally hard to obtain an accurate physics how to manage the uncertainty of a hybrid approach when
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prognostic framework for dynamic system state forecasting,” Engin. nostics and prognostics, signal processing, and machine learning algorithms as
Appl. Artif. Intell., vol. 25, pp. 814–823, 2012. well as their integration on embedded systems.
[59] K. Goebel, N. Eklund, and P. Bonanni, “Fusing competing prediction
algorithms for prognostics,” in Proc. IEEE Aerospace Conf., 2006, p.
10.
[60] K. Goebel, N. Eklund, and P. Bonanni, Prognostic Fusion for Uncer- Felix Köttig is a masters student at Dresden University of Technology (TUD),
tainty Reduction. Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, USA: Defense Tech- Germany, and a research intern at Siemens Corporation, Corporate Technology
nical Information Center, 2007. US. He is supported by the German national scholarship program, and a student
[61] G. Bartram and S. Mahadevan, “Prognostics and health monitoring assistantship at the department of Clinical Sensoring and Monitoring (TUD).
in the presence of heterogeneous information,” in Proc. Annu. Conf. His research interests include data analysis, predictive modeling, and medical
Prognost. Health Management Soc., 2012, vol. 3. imaging (optical coherence tomography).

Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches For Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Engineered Systems and An Application To Battery Life Prediction

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Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches For Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Engineered Systems and An Application To Battery Life Prediction

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, VOL. 63, NO.

1, MARCH 2014 191

Review of Hybrid Prognostics Approaches for

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

are easy to understand, and the result is easy to interpret. How-

life estimation. The thrust-force and the torque of drill bits

three best models. Du et al. [39] developed a selective neural

issue of updating the particle weights in long-term prediction

Fig. 6. A hybrid approach which uses a data-driven model and a physics-based

E. H5—Hybrid Approach Incorporating Experience-Based

data-driven, and model-based algorithms, representing the three

in every iteration step (bootstrap particle filter) with a system-

models and data-driven models. The physics-based model

results. Adequate training data samples were important to

filter (28.5845 cycles) and the proposed hybrid prognostics

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