Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

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Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

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Original article

Performance and economic viability of the PV system in different climatic

zones of Nigeria
Najib Hamisu Umar a, *, Birinchi Bora b, Chandan Banerjee b, Pallavi Gupta a, Namwar Anjum b
a
Sharda University, Greater Noida (NCR, Delhi), 201306, India
b
National Institute of Solar Energy, Gurugram, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study analyzed the effect of climatic variation on PV systems’ performance and economic viability in four
Photovoltaic system climatic zones of Nigeria (warm desert, warm semi-arid, tropical savanna, and monsoon climate). Performance
Performance ratio ratio was found to be high in monsoon and tropical savanna climate due to the influence of cool-moist air from
Levelized cost of energy
the ocean, low temperature, and increased cloud cover in the region. Meanwhile, the least performance ratio was
Net present value
noticed in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate due to the dusty wind from the Sahara desert, relatively
Internal rate of return
Payback period high temperature, and low precipitation in the region. In order to assess the cost-effectiveness and profitability of
the solar project in Nigeria, the Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV), internal rate of
return (IRR), and payback period (PP) were employed. The average LCOE across the climatic zones is 0.21
$/kWh, which is lower compared to the 0.25 $/kWh grid tariff. The average NPV and IRR are found to be
$31,164 and 22%, respectively, making the project economically feasible. However, the payback period was
found to be ranging from 3.7 to 5.2 years. Finally, the analysis has proven that solar PV technology is
economically viable and profitable in Nigeria.

Energy Technologies Screen (RETScreen) simulation software.

Introduction
Nowadays, the demand for an alternative energy source is very high.
Solar energy is believed to be responsible for high energy demand due to
its availability and environmentally friendly. Nigeria is located in the
tropics (equatorial region), where average temperature and humidity
are relatively high throughout the year; therefore, Nigeria receives
abundant solar radiation and sunshine [1-9]. Environmental condition
strongly influences the performance and reliability of photovoltaic
modules [10-15]. Hence, it is important to analyze and estimate the
performance of PV modules under different climatological circum­
stances. The knowledge of the effects of climatic factors on the PV
module is essential in designing and predicting the performance and
economic viability of the solar energy system. However, in Nigeria, not
all locations have solar radiation data on a daily basis [14]. According to
the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), there are about 50
weather stations in Nigeria that frequently measure climatic parameters
like temperature, sunshine hours, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, and
relative humidity [16]. However, out of these 50 weather stations, only
about 18 of them measure solar radiation. Hence, in this paper, mete­
orological variables are obtained from satellite data using Renewable
RETScreen is a comprehensive energy management software that en­
ables researchers and professionals to assess and identify the feasibility
of potential energy efficiency and renewable energy [17].
Nigeria has 12,500 Mega Watt (MW) of installed generation capac­
ity, being predominantly dependent on thermal and hydropower sour­
ces; 86.2% and 13.8% respectively. But currently, only 4,000 MW to
5,500 MW is normally available for onward transmission to the final
user. However, only less than 50% of the Nigerian population has access
to grid electricity supply [22]. The country is considered among the
West African countries with increased greenhouse emission [23,24].
Therefore, energy production through PV system applications will
reduce the emission of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Nigeria has immense solar
energy potential, with moderately distributed solar radiation averaging
5.58 kWh/m2/day and average sunshine hours of 5.5 h/day [25-27].
The major detriment of the PV system is its economic competitiveness,
especially when compared with other energy sources. The development
of solar energy in Nigeria is economically feasible, but the financial
aspect is the primary concern [6,7]. For solar energy to improve, both
Government and Commercial Institutions need to invest more in solar
energy technologies. It will help in reducing the energy crisis in the
country and will enhance both social and economic development in the

* Corresponding author.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2020.100987
Received 18 February 2019; Received in revised form 26 November 2020; Accepted 22 December 2020
Available online 7 January 2021
2213-1388/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
N. Hamisu Umar et al.
Nomenclature
D Discount rate
fr Rated output frequency
Impp Current at Pmax
IRR Internal rate of return
Isc Short-circuit current
NOCT Nominal operating cell temperature
NPV Net present value
Pacmax Maximum AC output power
Pacr Rated AC power
Pdcr Rated DC input power
Pmax Power output
PP Payback Period
PR Performance ratio
country.
Understanding the economics of PV systems is one of the most sig­
nificant considerations when deciding on solar energy. The term that is
commonly used when discussing renewable energy sources is called
“grid parity”. Grid parity is achieved when the cost of energy generated
per kWh (kilowatt-hour) is less or equal to grid tariff [28-37]. Levelized
cost of energy (LCOE) is a metric used to evaluate and compare the cost-
effectiveness of various sources of energy [28,34,38-40]. LCOE can be
determined by dividing the lifetime generation cost with lifetime energy
generation. The lifetime generation cost is calculated, taking into ac­
count the project’s capital cost and its annual operation and mainte­
nance cost. The project’s capital cost comprises the module cost, inverter
cost, and balance of the system, such as cables, meters, etc. [30,31].
The benefits of a solar PV investment are defined with an analogous
term, called Energy Payback [41]. In this paper, the simple payback tool
was used for economic evaluation. The simple payback (SPB) calculates
the minimum number of years required to sum non-discounted annual
cash flows to equal or exceed the non-discounted investment cost [42].
In other words, the payback period is the duration of time needed to
cover the cost of an investment [31,44]. Estimating a PV system’s
payback period requires a detailed analysis of the installation capacity
according to site conditions and the electricity production in kWh that
the system can generate [41,43,45]. The project installation cost, the
estimated annual electricity produced, the price of electricity per
kilowatt-hour, and its inflation rate are the main factors playing a role in
a solar PV system’s payback period. The average payback period of PV
based generation projects ranges from 6 to 8 years [46,47]. However,
long payback periods (more than 10 years) act as an added barrier in
developing and promoting the project. Furthermore, the influence of the
climatic factor on choosing the best module technology over the four
climatic zones was also analyzed.
However, a simple payback period is not sufficient to give an insight
from the investors’ point of view because the payback period does not
consider operation and maintenance cost, inflation, depreciation, and
project lifetime [39,48-50]. Therefore, to enhance the cost-effectiveness
and to measure the profitability of the project, the net present value
(NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) were calculated. NPV is used to
assess the reliability of future cash inflows that the project will make.
NPV considers the time value of money, taking into account inflation
and risk. If the NPV value is greater than zero (NPV greater than 0), it
indicates that the project is profitable and is considered a good invest­
ment. But if the NPV value is less than zero (NPV less than 0), it means
that the project is not profitable, and it should be rejected. However, if
the NPV value is equal to zero (NPV = 0), it indicates that there is neither
gain nor loss for the project. Furthermore, IRR is an indicator used to
analyze the investment rate of return. It is a discount rate at which the
NPV is equaled to zero [49-52].
2
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987
PV Photovoltaic
RH Relative humidity
STC Standard test condition
Vac,r Rated AC grid voltage
Pdcr Rated DC input power
Vmax Maximum DC input voltage
Vmpp Voltage at Pmax
Voc Open-circuit voltage
Yf Final yield of the system
Yr Reference yield
αIsc Temperature coefficient of Isc
βVoc Temperature coefficient of Voc
γ Temperature coefficient of Pmax
ηm Module efficiency
ηmax Maximum efficiency
Various research works such as [1-3] have worked on global solar
irradiance over Nigeria’s climatic zones. Other researchers worked on
solar resource potential in Nigeria; for example, [4] considered using
different tracking surfaces for evaluating solar resource potential, while
[5] have focused on solar energy variation in Nigeria. [6,7] worked on
solar energy integration, application, and development in Nigeria. [8]
Focused on the performance stability of PV modules in different cli­
mates. However, [9] worked on the effects of climate difference on solar
radiation in Nigeria. Moreover, unlike other studies, this current study
focuses on the effect of climatic variation on the performance and eco­
nomics of the PV system in Nigeria. This study is essential, considering
the potentiality of solar energy resources in Nigeria. Therefore, the study
aims to analyze the performance and economic viability of the PV sys­
tem in different climatic zones in Nigeria.
Methodology
Study location and weather
Nigeria is located in the equatorial region between latitude 40 N and
140 N and longitude 30 E and 150 E. Nigeria has only two seasons,
namely, the rainy and dry seasons. The rainy season is greatly influenced
by an air mass originating from the Atlantic Ocean, while the dry season
is associated with dust from the Sahara desert [18]. The seasons can
further be distinguished as summer (March to May), monsoon (June to
August), autumn (September to November), and winter season
(December to February). The annual daily average of global solar radi­
ation varies from about 3.6 kWh/m2/day in the coastal region to about
7.3 kWh/m2/day in the far north of the country [19]. The average
maximum temperature of Nigeria ranges between 32 and 42 ◦ C during
the hot season. The highest temperature above 45 ◦ C was reported in the
northeast part of the country. The average minimum temperature across
the country ranges from 10 to 17 ◦ C during the rainy season [20].
Rainfall of about 350–1000 mm was reported in the northeast,
northwest, and central region. The entire southeast and southwest had
2500–3500 mm of rain in the year. The rest of the country experienced
rainfall between 3500 and 5000 mm [20]. The annual average relative
humidity (RH) varies from about 39% in the northern part to about 83%
in the country’s southern part. In the far southern part of the country,
the average RH of about 40–50% was recorded with the highest RH of
about 80% in June, July, and August and lowest RH of about 20% in
January, February, March, November, and December. The central part
of Nigeria has an annual average RH of 66%, with the highest RH of 86%
in July and August and the lowest RH of about 30% in January and
December [20].
According to the Köppen climate classification [21], Nigeria is
affected by four climate types; warm desert climate, warm semi-arid
N. Hamisu Umar et al.
climate, tropical savanna climate, and monsoon climate. These climates
are donated by BWh, BSh, Aw, and Am, respectively. These climate types
are detectable as one move from the southern part of the country to the
northern part of the country through the central part of the country.
Warm desert climate (BWh) is the minor climate type in Nigeria found in
the far northeastern part of the county (Maiduguri and Yobe). This
climate is extremely hot and dry, with low precipitation. The tempera­
ture in this region is very high, sometimes above 40 ◦ C [21]. Warm semi-
arid climate (BSh) is the predominant climate type found in the northern
part of Nigeria (Kano, Sokoto, and Gombe). This climate is hot and dry,
with low annual rainfall compared to the southern part of the country.
The rainy season lasts for only three to four months (June-September);
the rest of the year is hot and dry, with temperatures climbing as high as
40 ◦ C in some parts of the region [21]. Tropical savanna climate (Aw) is
the most widespread climate type in Nigeria, covering most of the
country’s central and southern parts (Abuja, Kogi, Taraba, Plateau, and
Niger). This climate is wet and dry. The region exhibits a well-marked
rainy season and temperature of 18 ◦ C throughout the year. The
annual rainfall is about 1500 mm with single rainfall maxima in
September [21]. Monsoon climate (Am) is found in the south-southern
part of Nigeria (Akwa-Ibom, Rivers, and Bayelsa). This climate is
influenced by the monsoons that originated from the Atlantic Ocean.
Monsoon climate is a hot and humid climate, with a minimum tem­
perature range (26 ◦ C maximum). This climate experiences heavy and
abundant rainfall. The annual rain observed in this region is generally
above 2000 mm [21].
In this paper, 31 sites located in different states in Nigeria were
identified and selected, as illustrated in Fig. 1. The sites were chosen
based on the climatic variation of the locations and availability of the
data and to include all the states in Nigeria. The sites also represent the
entire state of Nigeria. The sites are categorized into four different
climate zones (warm desert climate, warm semi-arid climate, tropical
savanna climate, and monsoon climate). Meanwhile, site location,
states, and their corresponding coordinates, along with mean tempera­
ture and global radiation, are presented in Table 1. As illustrated in
Fig. 2, four different climate zones can be identified namely; zones A, B,
C, and D, ranging from the northern part of Nigeria to the southern part
through Nigeria’s central part. The details about these climatic zones are
already explained in the introduction section. It can be seen that the
northern part of Nigeria is having the highest solar radiation, followed
by the central part, with the southern part of Nigeria having the least
solar radiation [7].
Fig. 1. Nigerian map showing study locations [64].
3
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987
PV plant layout
In Nigeria, the ideal PV system for households ranges from 1 to 10
kWp [3,4,56-58]. In this paper, 10 kWp was used so that people could
make inferences for using a small or large PV system. The systems have
been designed and simulated using RETScreen software. The PV system
is assumed to be grid-connected. Therefore, a net metering scheme was
used for this analysis. The meteorological data are derived from NASA
and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET). The module and
inverter specifications were chosen from the available integrated PV
system components database of RETScreen simulation software to esti­
mate solar radiation and annual electricity production for different cli­
matic zones. In order to get maximum solar radiation, the modules are
tilted at an angle equals to the latitude of the corresponding site location
selected for this study. The modules are assumed to be facing south di­
rection at an azimuth angle of 0◦ .
Performance ratio (PR)
Tilted radiation in kWh/m2/d and electricity generated daily in kWh
was computed using RETScreen simulation software. Monthly PR was
then calculated for all the 31 selected site locations. The PR is defined as
the ratio of the PV efficiency to its efficiency at standard test conditions
(STC) [54]. PR is given by:
ηsys EAC GSTC
PR = = × (1)
ηSTC GT PDC,STC
where EAC is the AC energy output (kWh), GT is the total in-plane irra­
diance (kWh/m2), PDC,STC is the DC nominal power output (kW), and
GSTC is the global irradiance at STC (kW/m2).
Grid price and PV installation cost
The grid price (electricity tariff) in Nigeria is 0.25 $/kWh in major
cities of the country. As estimate by NERC (Nigerian Electricity Regu­
latory Commission) [55-58], the installation cost of solar PV system for
grid-connected is 1.3 $/watt [57,59,60]. Therefore, for 10 kWp, the total
installation cost of the project is $13,000. The annual operation and
maintenance cost is assumed to be 2% of the installed cost [56,58,60].
The summary of the economic and technical parameters are given in
Table 2.
System cost, incentives and tax
The PV system cost comprises the capital cost of the project and its
design and installation cost. The capital cost includes the module cost,
inverter cost, and balance of the system such as cables, meters, etc. It
should be noted that the battery cost is not considered since the plant is
grid-connected. However, tax and other incentives are not considered in
this study (Table 3).
PV lifetime, energy output and degradation rate
Generally, the PV system’s lifetime is considered to be the warranty
period, which is usually 25–30 years [61,62]. In this study, the warranty
period of the PV module is 25 years. Lifetime energy generation was
estimated using RETScreen taking into consideration the degradation
rate. In this study, the module has an annual degradation rate of 1.0%
[17].
Discount rate (d)
The discount rate is a parameter at which the cost and energy yield
are discounted to the present value [63]. In Nigeria, the discounted rate
ranges from 4 to 8% [60]. However, as reported by NERC [59,60], the
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Table 1
Study locations, states, coordinate average daily temperature and radiation.
Stations States Latitude (0 N) Longitude (0 E) Elevation (m) Avg.Temp. (◦ C) Avg. radiation (kWh/m2/d) Avg. wind speed (m/s)

Warm desert climate (BWh)

Mobbar Barno 13.3 12.6 296 27.9 6.34 3.6
Nguru Yobe 12.88 10.46 349 27.8 6.11 3.7
Yusufari Yobe 13.1 10.6 358 27.5 6.28 3.8

Warm semi-arid climate (BSh)

Birnin Kebbi Kebbi 11.67 4.07 257 26.8 5.94 2.3
Damaturu Yobe 11.75 11.97 377 26.4 5.96 3.6
Daura Katsina 13.03 8.32 475 26.4 5.96 3.3
Gusau Zamfara 12.16 6.67 451 26.0 6.01 3.0
Kano Kano 12.00 8.59 488 25.3 5.78 3.1
Maiduguri Barno 11.83 13.15 320 27.0 5.89 3.8
Sokoto Sokoto 13.00 5.25 305 27.4 5.62 2.6

Tropical savanna climate (Aw)

Abuja FCT 9.08 7.39 840 24.7 5.45 2.4
Abeokuta Ogun 7.15 3.36 66 23.2 4.90 2.3
Akure Ondo 7.26 5.21 350 25.1 4.93 2.6
Bauchi Bauchi 10.30 9.82 616 25.2 5.76 3.4
Benin Edo 6.34 5.60 88 26.9 4.35 2.2
Enugu Enugu 6.46 7.55 180 25.2 4.92 2.1
Ibadan Oyo 7.38 3.95 230 25.2 4.90 2.5
Ibi Taraba 8.32 9.77 109 25.0 5.27 2.7
Ikeja Lagos 6.60 3.35 39 25.7 4.74 2.8
Ilorin Kwara 8.48 4.54 310 25.4 5.15 2.3
Jos Plateau 9.80 8.80 1279 24.2 5.46 2.7
Lokoja Kogi 7.80 6.73 53 25.7 5.40 2.3
Makurdi Benue 7.73 8.54 104 25.3 5.19 2.6
Minna Niger 9.58 6.55 251 25.8 5.48 2.3
Yola Adamawa 9.02 12.49 599 26.0 5.69 3.0
Zaria Kaduna 11.09 7.72 641 25.0 5.77 2.9

Monsoon climate (Am)

Ikom Cross-River 5.96 8.72 101 24.7 4.14 2.0
Port-Harcourt Rivers 4.82 7.05 20 26.7 3.96 2.0
Uyo Akwa-Ibom 5.04 7.91 65 24.7 4.17 2.2
Warri Brass Delta 5.55 5.79 6 25.6 4.22 2.3
Bayelsa 4.50 6.20 5 25.5 4.12 2.1

discount rate for renewable energy is 7%. Hence, 7% is used as a dis­ of an investment [46]. The simple payback period for PV solar system
count rate for this study. can be determined using the equation below:
(Total cost of installed project) − (Tax and Subsidies)
Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) PP = (4)
(Annual energy generation in kWh) × (Grid price in kWh)

LCOE is defined as the ratio of lifetime generation cost to the lifetime

energy generation. The lifetime generation cost is calculated, taking into Net present value (NPV)
account the project’s capital cost and its annual operation and mainte­
nance cost. The project’s capital cost comprises the module cost, inverter ∑N Qt
cost, and balance of the system, such as cables, meters, etc. It should be NPV = − C + (5)
t=1 (1 + d)t
noted that the battery cost is not considered since the plant is grid-
connected. LCOE can be calculated as: Q1 Q2 QN
NPV = − C + + +⋯+ (6)
∑N Ct +Mt (1 + d) (1 + d)2 (1 + d)N
t
(2)
t=1 (1+d)
LCOE = ∑N
where C is the initial cost of the PV project, N is the lifetime of the PV
Et
t=1 (1+d)t
system in year, t is the specific year for calculation, d is the discount rate,
where Ct represent the capital cost of the project in year t, Mt is the and Q is the net cash flow. The Q can be calculated as follow:
operation and maintenance cost in year t, Et is the electricity generation
Qt = (cashinput)t − (cashouput)t (7)
in year t,d is the discount rate, and N represent the useful lifetime of the
PV plant.
Qt = (Etariff Egen )− Mo (8)
The capital cost of the project C can be defined as:
C = Ca + Cb + Cc + Cd (3) where Qt is the net cash flow in the year t, Etariff is the electricity tariff for
the PV system, Egen is the annual PV energy generation, and Mo is the
where Ca , Cb , Cc , Cd respectively, represent the module cost, inverter operation and maintenance cost.
cost, battery cost and balance of the system cost.
Internal rate of return (IRR)
Payback period (PP)
It is a discount rate at which the NPV is equal to zero, IRR can be
The Payback period is the duration of time needed to cover the cost calculated below:

4
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Fig. 2. Map of Nigeria showing solar radiation distribution [53]. Reproduced with permission from https://solargis.com/maps-and-gis-data/download/nigeria ©
2017 The World Bank, Solar resource data: Solargis.

the month of July through September and 0.88 from the month of June
Table 2
through October.
Summary of the economic and technical parameters.
It can be seen that all the study locations in monsoon climates (Brass,
PV installation cost 1.3 $/watt Ikom, Port-Harcourt, Uyo, and Warri) have performance ratios ranging
Total installation cost (10 kWp) $13,000 from 0.86 to 0.89. The performance ratio in these locations increases
Annual operation and Maintenance cost 2% of installed cost during the rainy season (July to October) and decreases during the dry
Lifetime of the PV system 25 years season (November to May). Study locations in Tropical savanna climate
Annual degradation rate 1.0%/year
Grid price (Electricity Tariff) 0.25 $/kWh
(Abuja, Abeokuta, Akure, Bauchi, Benin, Enugu, Ibadan, Ibi, Ikeja,
Discount Rate 7% Ilorin, Jos, Lokoja, Makurdi, Minna, Yola, and Zaria) have performance
ratio ranging from 0.85 to 0.88. In this region, the performance ratio
increases during the late rainy season (June to September) and decreases
∑N
0 = NPV =
Qt
− C (9) during the dry season. However, it can be observed that study locations
t=1 (1 + IRR)t found in a warm semi-arid climate (Birnin Kebbi, Damaturu, Daura,
Gusau, Kano, Maiduguri, and Sokoto) have performance ratio ranging
Results and discussions from 0.83 to 0.87. The performance ratio in this region increases during
the late rainy season (July to September) and decreases during the dry
The performance and economic viability of the PV system in Nigeria season (March to May). Furthermore, the performance ratio ranging
were evaluated. PV module performance was analyzed through the from 0.82 to 0.87 was observed in the warm desert climate (Mobbar,
performance ratio. The seasonal performance ratio over four climatic Nguru, and Yusufari). Performance ratios in these locations increase
zones of Nigeria is shown in Figs. 3–6. The performance ratio was found during the early dry season (December/January) and decrease during
to be ranging from 0.82 to 0.89, with an average of 0.85. The perfor­ the late dry season and rainy season.
mance ratio below average value (0.85) is considered a low- The performance ratio was observed to have a higher value of 0.89
performance ratio, while the one above-average value (0.85) is consid­ during the heavy rainy season (July through September) in the monsoon
ered the high-performance ratio. A decrease in performance ratio can be climate. An increase in performance ratio across the climate zones was
observed in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate. In contrast, an noticed during the late dry and wet season (May to October), due to low
increase in performance ratio can be seen in tropical savanna and temperature in the region or maybe as a result of cloud scattering and
monsoon climate. The performance ratio was noted to have a higher solar radiation absorption during this period. However, the least value of
value of 0.89 in the monsoon climate during the heavy rainy season a performance ratio of 0.82 was noticed during the dry season (March to
(July to September). The least performance ratio of 0.82 was observed in May) in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate. This decrease in
the warm desert climate during the dry season (March to May). For performance ratio is due to the high temperature in the region during
instance, Yusufari and Mobbar locations, which are from a warm desert this period.
climate, are the hottest locations with temperatures usually above 40 ◦ C. It can be observed that the performance ratio decreases with the
The two areas have the least performance ratio of 0.82 and 0.83 in the increase in solar radiation and then increases as the cloud covers the sky.
month of April and May, respectively. Whereas, Brass and Uyo (both This may be attributable to the heavy cloud during the rainy season. It
from monsoon climate) have the highest performance ratio of 0.89 from can be seen that a higher value of performance ratio is experienced in the

5
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Table 3
Economic parameters for different climatic zones of Nigeria.
Stations State Lifetime Energy Generation in 25 years (kWh/kW) LCOE ($/kWh) NPV ($) IRR (%) PP (year)

Warm desert climate

Mobbar Barno 497,381 0.18 39,189 27% 3.8
Nguru Yobe 482,576 0.19 37,577 26% 3.9
Yusufari Yobe 493,813 0.18 38,801 27% 3.7
Average 491,257 0.18 38,522 27% 3.8

Warm semi-arid climate

Birnin Kebbi Kebbi 468,512 0.19 36,045 25% 4.0
Damaturu Yobe 471,119 0.19 36,329 25% 3.9
Daura Katsina 470,717 0.19 36,286 25% 4.1
Gusau Zamfara 475,474 0.19 36,804 26% 4.1
Kano Kano 466,983 0.19 35,879 25% 4.1
Maiduguri Barno 466,160 0.19 35,789 25% 3.9
Sokoto Sokoto 443,664 0.2 33,339 23% 4.0
Average 466,090 0.19 35,002 24% 4.0

Tropical savanna climate

Abuja FCT 435,964 0.21 32,500 23% 4.3
Abeokuta Ogun 389,818 0.23 27,475 20% 4.6
Akure Ondo 394,140 0.23 27,945 20% 4.6
Bauchi Bauchi 459,217 0.2 35,033 25% 4.1
Benin Edo 345,756 0.26 22,676 16% 5.0
Enugu Enugu 392,146 0.23 27,728 20% 4.5
Ibadan Oyo 391,012 0.23 27,605 20% 4.5
Ibi Taraba 421,166 0.22 30,889 22% 4.3
Ikeja Lagos 377,827 0.24 26,169 19% 4.7
Ilorin Kwara 411,019 0.22 29,784 21% 4.4
Jos Plateau 439,362 0.21 32,871 23% 4.3
Lokoja Kogi 428,779 0.21 31,718 22% 4.3
Makurdi Benue 413,413 0.22 30,044 21% 4.3
Minna Niger 436,248 0.21 32,531 23% 4.3
Yola Adamawa 450,977 0.2 34,136 24% 4.1
Zaria Kaduna 459,763 0.2 35,092 25% 4.1
Average 415,413 0.2 33,919 24% 4.4

Monsoon climate
Brass Bayelsa 330,224 0.28 20,984 15% 5.1
Ikom Cross-River 402,061 0.23 28,808 20% 4.5
Port-Harcourt Rivers 315,355 0.29 19,365 14% 5.2
Uyo Akwa-Ibom 342,805 0.27 22,354 16% 5.0
Warri Delta 360,994 0.25 24,335 17% 4.9
Average 350,288 0.27 22,018 16% 5.2

southern part of Nigeria (monsoon and tropical savanna climate); that is
to say, performance ratio decreases as the latitude increases across the
country. Latitude increases as one move from the southern part of the
country to the northern part of the country through the central part of
Nigeria. i.e., from monsoon climate to the warm desert climate through
tropical savanna and warm semi-arid climate (see Fig. 7). The influence
of relatively cool-moist air from the ocean and the increased cloud cover
in the coastal region (monsoon climate and some part of tropical
savanna climate) may be responsible for the high-performance ratio in
the region. Whereas, low precipitation, high temperature, and dusty
wind from the Sahara desert, which is blocking sun rays from shining
and creating a haze in the atmosphere in the warm desert and warm
semi-arid climate, may be responsible for the low-performance ratio in
the region.
All climatic zones witnessed an increase in performance ratio in the
month of July and August, followed by September, October, and
November. Reduction in performance ratio is evident in dry periods with
more advances in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate zone
followed by tropical savanna and monsoon climate zone. This reduction
in performance ratio may be attributable to the increase in the dust
during the dry season. The study shows that an increase in performance
ratio is found to be more in monsoon climate followed by a tropical
savanna climate, and the least performance ratio was observed in the
warm desert climate followed by a warm semi-arid climate.
The maximum energy production is noticed in the month of March
and the minimum in August (see Fig. 9). The reason behind this is low
ambient temperature and clear solar radiation in the month of March,
while in the month of August, energy production is low as a result of the
cloudy or rainy season (see Fig. 9). This shows that electricity produc­
tion depends on seasonal variation. It was noted that electricity pro­
duction increases in the spring and summer seasons, while it decreases
during the cold seasons (see Fig. 10).
It was also observed that the ambient temperature influences the
output power of the PV solar system. High ambient temperature in­
creases the module temperature leading to a decrease in performance
ratio and the PV array efficiency. Similarly, humidity is one of the
environmental factors to be considered while deciding the PV power
output. High humidity in the atmosphere negatively affects the PV
module performance. During the nighttime, humidity condenses and
forms a deposit on the module, which in turn reduces the performance of
the PV module. It is important to know that the accumulation of dust
also affects the performance of the PV module. An increase in dust
accumulation rate leads to a decrease in the performance of the PV
module due to a drop in glass cover spectral transmissivity.
Furthermore, PV efficiency increases with elevation as a result of an
increase in wind speed. This is because, at high elevation, the cooling
effect is high, thus reducing the module temperature, which in turn in­
creases the module efficiency. It was noted that the Jos location, which
has the highest elevation of 1279 m, has a high-performance ratio
compared to the other locations of the same climate zone. At high

6
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Fig. 3. Nigerian map displaying the performance ratio distribution for summer.

Fig. 4. Nigerian map displaying the performance ratio distribution for monsoon.

altitude, there is a change in the spectrum as compared with the low
altitude range. Therefore, in high hill areas, the air mass is low, and the
performance ratio is high due to the low average ambient temperature in
the region.
In order to assess the cost-effectiveness and to measure the profit­
ability of solar projects in Nigeria, the Levelized cost of electricity
(LCOE), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and
payback period (PP) was employed. The economic assessment results
were presented in Table 3. The value of LCOE ranges from 0.18 $/kWh
to 0.29 $/kWh, with a total average of 0.21 $/kWh. The average LCOE
obtained in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate is 0.18 $/kWh
and 0.19 $/kWh, respectively. In contrast, the LCOE obtained in tropical

7
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Fig. 5. Nigerian map displaying the performance ratio distribution for autumn.

Fig. 6. Nigerian map displaying the performance ratio distribution for winter.

savanna and monsoon climate is found to be 0.20 $/kWh and 0.27
$/kWh, respectively. The results show that only the monsoon climate
has slightly higher LCOE compared to a 0.25 $/kWh grid tariff (see
Fig. 11). The decrease in LCOE in monsoon climate is due to low elec­
tricity generation in the region since there is no variation in the discount
rate or operation and maintenance cost.
The value of NPV ranges from $19,365 to $39,189, taking into ac­
count the initial cost of $13,000, 2% operation and maintenance cost, a
discount rate of 7%, and a lifetime of 25 years. The average NPV across
the climatic zones is found to be $31,164. It was observed that warm
desert and warm semi-arid climate have a higher NPV of $38,522 and
$35,002, respectively. Whereas the NPV obtained in tropical savanna

8
N. Hamisu Umar et al. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987

Fig. 7. Nigerian map displaying the Annual performance ratio distribution.

Fig. 8. Nigerian map displaying Payback Period distribution.

and monsoon climate are found to be $ 33,919 and $22,018,
respectively.
Furthermore, the IRR obtained in this study ranges from 14% to 27%,
with a total average of 22%. The average IRR obtained in the warm
desert and warm semi-arid climate is 27% and 24%, respectively.
Whereas the IRR obtained in tropical savanna and monsoon climate are
found to be 24% and 16%, respectively. It can be seen that only monsoon
climate has a slightly lower IRR due to low electricity generation in the
region since the electricity tariff and operation and maintenance cost is
the same for all the four climatic zones (see Fig. 12). The result indicates
that the solar PV project is economically viable and considered profit­
able in Nigeria.
However, the payback period was found to be ranging from 3.7 to
5.2 years for the four climatic zones (see Figs. 8 and 12). The average
payback period was found to be 4.3 years. The payback period was
found to be 3.8 and 4.0 years in the warm desert and warm semi-arid

9
N. Hamisu Umar et al.
Fig. 9. Annual average tilted irradiance vs. annual energy produced over climatic zones.
Fig. 10. Annual average energy produced vs. annual average performance ratio over climatic zones.
climate, respectively, while in the case of tropical savanna and monsoon
climate, the payback period was found to be 4.4 and 5.2 years, respec­
tively. The analysis shows that a low Payback period was noticed in the
warm desert and warm semi-arid climate, and this may be attributable
to high electricity generation due to high solar radiation in the regions.
The payback period was found to be higher in tropical savanna and
monsoon climate, and this may be attributable to low electricity gen­
eration due to low solar radiation in the regions.
Conclusion
This paper has analyzed the effect of climatic variation on the per­
formance and economic viability of PV systems in Nigeria. The 31 site
locations were selected based on the country’s four climatic zones
(warm desert, warm semi-arid, tropical savanna, and monsoon climate).
The performance ratio was then determined for all the study locations
with the help of RETScreen energy software. Contour maps showing
10
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987
performance ratio distribution across the locations have been generated.
The performance ratio was observed to have a higher value of 0.89
during the heavy rainy season (July through September), while the least
value of 0.82 is observed during the dry season (April through May). An
increase in performance ratio may be attributable to heavy clouds and
low temperatures during the rainy season. A decrease in performance
ratio may be attributable to high temperature and an increase in the dust
during the dry season. Among the study locations, Brass and Uyo (both
from monsoon climate) had the highest performance ratio of 0.89 and
was experienced during the late rainy season, whereas Mobbar and
Yusufari (both from warm desert climate) have the least performance
ratio of 0.82 during the dry season. The results show that the perfor­
mance ratio decreases as one move from monsoon climate to warm
desert climate through tropical savanna and warm semi-arid climate.
As expected, it was observed that, the ambient temperature in­
fluences the output power of the PV solar system. High ambient tem­
perature increases the module temperature leading to a decrease in
N. Hamisu Umar et al.
Fig. 11. Grid electricity price vs. Levelized cost of electricity over climatic zones.
Fig. 12. Payback period vs. Internal rate of return over climatic zones.
performance ratio and the PV array efficiency. Similarly, humidity is one
of the environmental factors to be considered while deciding the PV
power output. High humidity in the atmosphere negatively affects the
PV module performance. An increase in dust accumulation rate leads to
a decrease in the performance of the PV module due to a drop in glass
cover spectral transmissivity. Furthermore, as expected, the PV effi­
ciency increases with elevation as a result of an increase in wind speed.
This is because, at high elevation, the cooling effect is high, thus
reducing the module temperature, which in turn increases the module
efficiency.
The study shows that the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate,
which are characterized by high daily solar radiation, have a low-
performance ratio due to high ambient temperature that affects the
module temperature. In contrast, a high-performance ratio was observed
in tropical savanna and monsoon climate due to low ambient tempera­
ture in the region.
In order to assess the cost-effectiveness and to measure the
11
Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments 43 (2021) 100987
profitability of the solar project in Nigeria, the Levelized cost of elec­
tricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR),
and payback period (PP) was employed. The value of LCOE ranges from
0.18 $/kWh to 0.29 $/kWh, with a total average of 0.21 $/kWh. The
average LCOE obtained in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climates
are 0.18 $/kWh and 0.19 $/kWh, respectively, whereas the LCOE ob­
tained in tropical savanna and monsoon climate is found to be 0.20
$/kWh and 0.27 $/kWh, respectively. The results show that only the
monsoon climate has slightly higher LCOE compared to a 0.25 $/kWh
grid tariff. The decrease in LCOE in monsoon climate is due to low
electricity generation in the region since there is no variation in the
discount rate or operation and maintenance cost.
The average NPV across the climatic zones is found to be $31,164. It
was observed that warm desert and warm semi-arid climate have a
higher NPV of $38,522 and $35,002, respectively. Whereas the NPV
obtained in tropical savanna and monsoon climate is $ 33,919 and
$22,018, respectively. Furthermore, the average IRR across the climatic
N. Hamisu Umar et al.
zones is found to be 22%. The IRR obtained in the warm desert, and
warm semi-arid climate is 27% and 24%, respectively. Whereas the IRR
obtained in tropical savanna and monsoon climate are found to be 24%
and 16%, respectively. It can be seen that only the monsoon climate has
a slightly lower IRR value due to low electricity generation in the region.
The result indicates that the solar PV project is economically viable and
considered profitable.
However, the payback period was found to be ranging from 3.7 to
5.2 years for the four climatic zones. The average payback period was
found to be 4.3 years. The payback period was found to be 3.8 and 4.0
years in the warm desert and warm semi-arid climate, respectively,
while in the case of tropical savanna and monsoon climate, the payback
period was found to be 4.4 and 5.2 years, respectively.
Finally, the analysis has proven that solar PV technology is
economically viable and profitable in Nigeria. However, it is recom­
mended that Government and commercial institutions should integrate
solar PV systems to solve the country’s energy crisis.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgment
We are grateful to the National Institute of Solar Energy, Gurugram,
India, for their support and aspiring guidance and the Nigerian Meteo­
rological Agency (NIMET), Abuja, Nigeria, for providing us with infor­
mation during our research work.
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