Accepted Manuscript

Transient thermal prediction methodology for parabolic trough solar collector tube
using artificial neural network

Shye Yunn Heng, Yutaka Asako, Tohru Suwa, Ken Nagasaka

PII: S0960-1481(18)30834-6
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.07.037
Reference: RENE 10311

To appear in: Renewable Energy

Received Date: 17 January 2018

Revised Date: 14 May 2018
Accepted Date: 8 July 2018

Please cite this article as: Heng SY, Asako Y, Suwa T, Nagasaka K, Transient thermal prediction
methodology for parabolic trough solar collector tube using artificial neural network, Renewable Energy
(2018), doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.07.037.

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
1

3 Revised Manuscript
4

5 Transient thermal prediction methodology for parabolic trough solar collector

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6 tube using artificial neural network
7

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8

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10 Shye Yunn Heng
11 Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology

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12 Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
13 Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, 54100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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14 syheng4@live.utm.my

15 Yutaka Asako*
16 Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
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17 Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

18 Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, 54100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
19 y.asako@utm.my
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20 Tohru Suwa
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21 Department of Mechanical Engineering

22 President University
23 Jl. Ki Hajar Dewantara, Kota Jababeka
24 Cikarang Baru, 17550, Bekasi, Indonesia
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25 tohru@president.ac.id

26 Ken Nagasaka
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27 Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering

28 Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology
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29 Nakacho, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8588, Japan

30 bahman@cc.tuat.ac.jp

31

32

33 *corresponding author

34

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1 Abstract

2 The solar radiation fluctuation occurs at practically anywhere on the earth. When a solar
3 thermal power generation system is designed for the areas with considerable solar radiation
4 fluctuation, the collector tube exit temperature becomes more difficult to predict and requires
5 significant calculation time. This paper presents a fast and accurate transient thermal
6 prediction method to predict the parabolic trough collector tube exit temperature. In this
7 work, an artificial neural network (ANN) is combined with the principle of superposition.

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8 ANN is used to predict the exit temperature rise caused by a single heat flux pulse in the first
9 step of the proposed methodology, while superposition is used to predict the from multiple
10 heat flux pulses in the second step. Limited cases of conjugate heat transfer analytical results

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11 by the finite element method (FEM) are used to train the ANN. The one-day exit fluid
12 temperature from 7 am to 6 pm is predicted within 1 minute of computational time with mean
13 absolute deviation less than 2 K. The exit fluid temperature of the collector tube for one year

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14 operation can be predicted in less than 6 hours. Because fluid velocity is included in the input
15 parameters, the proposed methodology is especially useful for flow control simulations where
16 a constant exit temperature is targeted. Through this, the optimum performance of collector

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17 tube under multiple radiation conditions can be assessed during an early design phase of
parabolic solar trough systems. The predicted results can be used for initial system planning,
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18
19 heat balance analysis, and system design. Since the method shows good prediction capability
20 under the fluctuating solar radiation as well as the stable solar radiation, it is applicable to be
21 used for designing the parabolic trough technology at any weather conditions in the world.
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22
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23 Keywords: Artificial neural network; Parabolic trough solar collector tube; Solar radiation
24 fluctuation; Solar thermal power generation; Superposition principle; Transient thermal
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25 prediction

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1 1. Introduction

2 Solar thermal energy is a form of energy for harnessing solar energy to provide heat
3 and electricity. The sun supplies approximately 150,000 TW of radiant energy to the earth.
4 The half of the solar energy is reflected or radiated by the atmosphere, while another half
5 reaches the ground. Considering that 50 % of total solar power reaches the earth, the energy
6 supplied by the sun is enough to fulfill the global energy demand in theory [1]. Solar thermal
7 power system is a promising renewable energy option to reduce carbon dioxide emission and

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8 mitigate climate change [2].

9 Solar parabolic trough is considered as one of the most matured concentrated solar
thermal power technologies for generating electricity as well as heat [3, 4]. In parabolic

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10
11 trough technology, solar collector tube is the receiver or heat collecting element that locates
12 at the focal line of the parabolic trough mirror. The incoming solar radiation that reaches the

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13 parabolic trough mirror is concentrated to the collector tube surface. The process involves the
14 combination of radiative, convective and conductive energy transfer with fluid flow.
15 Multiples thermal studies related to the solar collector tube in the parabolic trough technology

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16 have been carried out [5, 6]. Ahmed [7], Yilmaz and Soylemez [8] analyzed the thermal
17 performance of parabolic trough collector through equation solving software. He et al. [9]
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18 and Hachicha et al. [10] combined optical model with finite volume method (FVM) to
19 analyze the thermal energy transfer process in parabolic trough solar collectors. Lu et al. [11]
20 and Zheng et al. [12] analyzed the heat transfer performances of the parabolic trough
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21 collectors through non-uniform solar energy flux distribution models. Wang et al. [13]
22 combined solar ray trace method and finite element method (FEM) to analyze the parabolic
23 trough collector thermal performance. Wu et al. [6] conducted detailed study on the heat
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24 transfer in the parabolic trough solar collector tube through a three-dimensional numerical
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25 simulation model. These studies were limited to the steady state thermal conditions.

26 For parabolic trough technology, the energy source is not always readily available.
27 Solar radiation, which is the heat source to the system, may change yearly, monthly and daily
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28 bases. The change in solar radiation occurs especially in Southeast Asia countries such as
29 Malaysia, which is located at the equatorial region with the latitude between 1 to 7 °N and the
30 longitude 100 to 120 °E. Because of its geographic location, Malaysia is relatively hot and
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31 humid throughout the year, and experiences the tropical rainy season. The average monthly
solar radiation in Malaysia is around 400–600 MJ/m2 [14]. Fig. 1 shows the measured global
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32
33 horizontal irradiance, GGHI at University Technology Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur on a typical
34 sunny day. Because of the humidity, the measured solar radiation fluctuates and rarely stays
35 at the same value for more than 1 minute. Even though the solar radiation in this area may not
36 be ideal for solar power applications, it still is one of the most promising renewable energy
37 sources. The transient thermal analysis for parabolic trough solar collector tube is critical
38 technology for utilizing solar thermal energy when fluctuating solar radiation is incorporated
39 into the system design.

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Global Horizotal Irradiance, GGHI (W/m 2)

1000

800

600

400

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200

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8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (hr)
1
2 Figure 1 Measured global horizontal irradiance, GGHI at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on a typical

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3 sunny day

4 The existing research for transient thermal performance of parabolic trough

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5 technology can be categorized into two major groups. First group is the transient performance
6 simulations for the entire solar thermal power plants [15-19]. The second group is detailed
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7 transient thermal modelling methodologies for solar collector tubes based on two or three-
8 dimensional analyses [6, 13, 20, 21]. Besides that, Xu et al. [22] performed transient thermal
9 performance study by comparing the theoretical analysis and experiment results for a
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10 collector tube under the condition of varying direct normal irradiance. Zaversky et al. [23]
11 developed a transient heat transfer model by using one-dimensional fluid flow analysis. In
12 their work, the collector tube was discretized into finite number of control volumes. The
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13 result showed that the analysis accuracy and computational time were increased
simultaneously with the increased number of control volumes.
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14

15 In the areas with fluctuating solar radiation, the patterns of the solar radiation differ
16 every day. Multiple cases of transient thermal analysis are required to perform for initial
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17 planning, heat balance analysis, and control system design during an early design stage.
18 Based on the literature review, the existing transient approaches for parabolic trough solar
19 collector exit temperature estimation achieved reasonable accuracy for system design only
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20 when large calculation time was allowed. The required calculation time was so long that the
21 existing methodologies have not been suitable for repetitive analyses. Hence, the objective of
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22 this research is to develop a fast and accurate transient thermal prediction method to predict
23 the exit fluid temperature of the parabolic trough solar collector tube. An innovative transient
24 thermal performance prediction methodology is developed by combining ANN and
25 superposition principle. The predicted results are compared with the temperatures obtained by
26 a conventional FEM method to confirm the accuracy of the prediction.

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1 2. Solar collector tube exit fluid temperature prediction methodology

2 In the proposed methodology, ANN and superposition principle are used to predict
3 the exit fluid temperature of the collector tube for one day operation under fluctuated solar
4 radiation. The fluctuating solar radiation used for the incoming heat flux is modeled as a
5 series of consecutive rectangular heat flux pulses. In a heat flux pulse, constant heat flux
6 continues for 60 seconds. The ANN is used for predicting the exit temperature rises caused
7 by single heat flux pulses, while superposition is used for predicting the temperature rises

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8 from multiple heat flux pulses. The collector tube exit temperatures from limited cases of
9 finite element analysis are used to train ANN. Once ANN is trained, the exit fluid
10 temperature prediction is performed much faster than the finite element analysis with

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11 comparable accuracy.

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13 2.1 Heat input

14 The heat flux values that assigned as the heat boundary condition in FEM model is

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15 based on measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI), GGHI . The GHI is measured in 1-
16 minute interval at Kuala Lumpur with geographic coordinate of longitude 101.72 °E and
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17 latitude 3.17 °N. GHI consists of both direct normal irradiance (DNI), GDNI , and diffuse
18 horizontal irradiance (DHI), GDHI , as in Eq. (1) [24]. The parabolic trough collector
19 concentrates the direct beam radiation and converts it to thermal energy in the actual system.
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20 Hence, the aperture normal irradiance (ANI), GANI, is calculated based on measured GHI by
21 using Eq. (2) [25]. The DHI is assumed to be 30 % of GHI [26]. The concentrated heat flux,
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22 q CON , received on the surface of the collector tube is calculated from Eq. (3) by multiplying
23 ANI with the concentration ratio, Cr, and optical efficiencies stated in Table 1. In this study,
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24 GHI is used to obtain ANI, however, the values can be replaced with the comprehensive
25 radiative analysis results together with measured DNI from a pyrheliometer.

GGHI = GDNI • cos θ + GDHI (1)

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26

27 GANI = GDNI • cos θ = 0.7GGHI (2)

q CON = GANI • Cr • ρr • τ r • αr =0.7GGHI • Cr • ρr • τ r • αr

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28 (3)
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29 where θ is solar zenith angle, ρr is the mirror reflectivity, τr is the transmittance of glass tube,
30 and αr is the coating absorptivity on the collector tube.

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32 2.2 Model description

33 The work aims to analyze the heat performance in the parabolic collector tube. The
34 commercially available FEM software [27] is used to solve the fluid flow and energy
35 equations to obtain the collector tube exit fluid temperatures. A schematic diagram of a
36 typical commercially available parabolic trough collector tube is shown in Fig. 2. The

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1 collector tube is a metal tube, which is covered by an outer glass tube. The space between the
2 inner and the outer tubes is evacuated for insulation. In this work, several assumptions are
3 made in order to simplify the complexity of the heat transfer model: (1) convection heat loss
4 at the outer surface of the metal tube is neglected because of the vacuum insulation layer; (2)
5 concentrated solar radiation from the parabolic trough mirror is modeled as uniform radiation
6 around the tube circumference since the diameter of the tube is small compared to its length
7 and the temperature difference within a cross-sectional area is small, and (3) the support
8 brackets and connectors at the collector tube ends are neglected. Thus, an axisymmetric

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9 model of the metal collector tube with the length of 200 m is created and shown in Fig. 3.
10 Detailed dimensions of the collector tube are listed in Table 1. The collector tube is made of
11 stainless steel AISI321 with density of ρ = 8000 kg/m3, specific heat of Cp = 500 J/kg-K, and

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12 thermal conductivity of k = 16.1 W/m-K. Thermal oil (Therminol VP-1) with temperature
13 ranging from 293 K to 693 K is selected as the working fluid. The properties of the fluid are

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14 shown in Eqs. (4) through (7) [28]. Average working fluid velocities ranging from 0.35 m/s
15 to 1.45 m/s, the corresponding Reynolds numbers are from 34,200 to 142,000 respectively
16 are selected. Hence, the k- high Reynold number turbulence model is selected in the fluid

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17 flow simulation [29]. The governing equations including continuity equation, momentum
18 equation, energy equation and standard k-ε model that used in the simulation are expressed in
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19 Eqs. (8) to (12). The wall function treatment proposed by Launder and Spalding is applied.
20 The wall shear stress  is obtained from the values of u, k, and y outside of the viscous
21 sublayer via the generalized logarithmic law expressed in Eq. (13). The universal velocity
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22 profile of Prandtl-Taylor shown in Eq. (14) is assigned to the inlet of the tube.

glass tube (Do= 125mm)

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vacuum
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metal tube (Do= 70mm)

fluid flow
23
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24 Figure 2 Schematic longitude cross section of a typical commercial parabolic collector tube
25 [30]
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26

27 Figure 3 Axisymmetrical finite element analysis model for collector tube (not to scale)

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1 Table 1 Geometry and optical properties for solar collector tube [13]

Focal Mirror Mirror Tube Tube Mirror Transmittance Coating

length aperture concentration inner outer reflectivity glass tube absorbance
f (m) width ratio (Cr) diameter diameter ρr τr of tube
a (m) Di (m) Do (m) outer
surface
αr
1.71 5.77 82 0.065 0.07 0.94 0.96 0.95
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3 Fluid properties:

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4 ρ= -0.90797T +0.00078116T2 -2.367•10-6 T3 +1083.25 (4)

5 Cp = 0.002414T+5.9591•10-6 T2 -2.9879•10-8 T3 +4.4172•10-11 T4 +1.498 (5)

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6 k= -8.194777•10-5 T-1.92257•10-7 T2 +2.5034•10-11 T3 -7.2974•10-15 T4 +0.137743 (6)

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ν=10-6 exp T+114.43 -2.59578
544.149
7 (7)
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8 Continuity equation:

 
+
∂ρ
9 +  
=0 (8)
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∂t

10 Momentum equation:
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∂ρu 

 
    
11 + + =−  +  + +  
∂t        
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+ = −   +   + +     −
∂ρ
12
∂t
+    
(9)

13 Energy equation:
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∂ρ!" #  !"
#  !" #  $!" $ #  $!" $ #
14 + 
+ 
=   % + '&    +    % + '&     (10)
∂t & &
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15 Flow equation for standard k-ε model:

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∂ρ* 
*  *  $ *  $ *
16 + + = , + '&  + , + '&    +Pk -ρ (11)
∂t     -    - 

∂ρ1 
1  1  $ 1  $ 1 ε ε2
17 +  +   =  , + '&   +   , + '&    +Cε1 Pk -Cε2 ρ (12)
∂t 2 3 k k


  

18 where  = , + , #  2  −  ∇∙ u,  =  = , + , #   +  ,

   
19  = , + , #  2  −  ∇∙ u, :: = , + , #  2  −  ∇∙ u,

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k2
1 μT = ρCμ ϵ

      
 2 2
2 Pk = μT >2 ?  +   +   @ +  +   - 3 ∇∙ u
u2 B - 3 ρk∇∙u
u
3 Cε1 = 1.44, Cε2 = 1.92, Cμ = 0.09, σk = 1.0, σε = 1.3 and σT = 0.9
4
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$ GHIJD K L
5 =F (13)
C D DK
E E
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6 where M N =  P$
O Q . For the k equation the diffusion flux to the wall is considered to be
$

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7 zero. For the ε equation, the value at the near wall grid point is calculated from
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8 ε = IP$   LQ TSM.

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10 Velocity profile:

u/uave =r+0 /ReU5 lnI2r+0 V0.5-r/DWL +11X

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11 (14)

12 where r+0 is the dimensionless tube radius based on the shear velocity. The correlation
between dimensionless tube radius, r+0 , and Reynolds number, Re, is shown in Eq. (13) [31].

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13

711.6
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14 Re=-154.4+ +5r+0 lnr+0 )+3.5r+0 (15)
r+
0

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16 2.3 Prediction for collector tube exit temperature caused by a single heat flux pulse

17 Heat flux from solar radiation changes in every minute. Hence, long calculation time
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18 is required to compute the exit fluid temperature under the frequent change of heat flux
19 through the FEM transient heat analysis. Therefore, ANN is applied to predict the exit fluid
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20 temperature caused by consecutive heat flux pulses. The results obtained from FEM are used
21 to train the ANN. Although ANN does not contain fluid flow nor energy equations, it is able
22 to predict FEM results by being trained with FEM results. ANN is a computational intelligent
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23 technique and has been defined as a massive parallel distributed processor [32]. ANN mimics
24 the learning process of the human brain and operates like a "black box" to carry out a non-
25 linear mapping. ANN, which does not require the details of the system information, learns the
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26 relationship between the inputs and the outputs through recorded data [33]. ANN network
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27 operation consists of three stages, which are training, testing, and production. Firstly, the
28 network is trained to generate outputs based on historical data in the training stage. Then, the
29 trained network is tested to confirm the actual predictive capability of the network before it is
30 used to produce prediction results [34]. ANN has been applied to various energy prediction
31 methodologies, such as preheat water tank stratification temperature prediction for domestic
32 hot water production and space heating [34]. Souliotis et al. [35] combined ANN and
33 TRNSYS to predict stored thermal energy in an integrated collector storage system.
34 Kalogirou et al. [36] and Yaici and Entchev [37] used ANNs to predict energy outputs from
35 solar thermal systems. Cetiner et al. [38] predicted the energy gain in a solar hot water
36 generator through an ANN. Fischer et al. [39] applied an ANN to investigate the thermal

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1 behavior of the flat plate and tubular collectors. Meanwhile, ANNs were also applied to
2 forecast solar radiation values [40-44].

3 The ANN model that used to predict the exit fluid temperature caused by a single heat
4 flux pulse is illustrated in Fig. 4. In order to increase the accuracy of the prediction caused by
5 each heat flux pulse, the result of exit fluid temperature with 5 seconds interval is used in the
6 training. Total 29884 data sets under combination of 32 different values of heat flux ranging
7 from 0 to 60000 W/m2 and 20 different values of working fluid velocity ranging from 0.35

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8 m/s to 1.45 m/s with the 5 seconds interval are used to train and test ANN model. The range
9 of heat flux for ANN training data sets are based on the measured solar radiation in Malaysia.
10 The concentrated heat flux is expected to be less than 60,000 W/m2 when the mirror

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11 concentration ratio is 82. The working fluid velocity is 1.45 m/s or less for the 200-m-long
12 collector tube to generate electricity. The ANN is trained and tested by using commercially
13 available artificial neural network software [45]. Multilayer feed forward network shown in

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14 Fig. 5 is among the available network architecture that provides best prediction performance.
15 The network consists of input, hidden, and output layers, which are made of interconnected
16 transfer functions and weights. The nonlinear of logistics function is applied in the hidden

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17 slabs to detect the features in the pattern through a network for this case. In the learning
procedure, back-propagation algorithm is implemented with learning rate, α = 0.9,
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18
19 momentum rate, β = 0.6, and initial weight, w = 0.1. Back-propagation training algorithm is a
20 gradient descent optimization algorithm, which consists of feed forward and backward
21 passes. The information is processed and propagated from input to the output layer during
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22 feed forward pass. The output obtained from the network is then compared to the desired
23 output and the error is calculated. The error is then propagated back to the input layer through
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24 the network. The backward process is to minimize the error by updating the connection to
25 change weight along the gradient, in order to increase the prediction performance [34].
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26 Learning rate is the weight leading to an output node in the learning to produce a smaller
27 error the next time the same pattern. The momentum rate plays the role of smoothing effect in
28 proportion of the last weight change that is added into the new weight change. The weight
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29 connects the strength between the neurons. These learning parameters are used to determine
30 the speed and stability of the network [36]. The learning parameters as well as the network
31 configuration used in this study are determined by trial and error bases in the preliminary
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32 analysis phase. The trial-and-error approach has been widely used in ANN to optimize
33 networks [46].
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34

35

36 Figure 4 ANN model to predict exit tube temperature caused by single heat flux pulse

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1

2 Figure 5 Multilayer feed forward network

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3 2.4 Superposition principle for one day operation prediction

4 The temperature rises caused by heat flux pulses, which are predicted by ANN, are

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5 superimposed to obtain the exit fluid temperature caused by a series of consecutive heat flux
6 pulses. If the fluid properties are assumed to be constant, the energy equation is linear.
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7 Hence, the exit fluid temperature of the collector tube can be predicted by superimposing the
8 temperature rise caused by each heat flux pulse that forms the consecutive heat flux pulses. In
9 this work, although the thermal properties of the working fluid are treated as constants in the
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10 superposition process, still, the temperature rises of the working fluid with variable properties
11 at a collector tube exit caused single heat flux pulses are obtained from the continuity,
12 momentum and energy equations implemented in FEM software.
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13 The exit fluid temperature obtained by superposition principle under fluctuating heat
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14 flux is shown in Fig. 6. The bar chart shows arbitrary consecutive heat flux pulses with
15 corresponding G1 = 100 W/m2 to G7 = 800 W/m2. The concentrated heat flux, q CON , received
16 on the outer surface of the metal tube is calculated from Eqs (1) to (3). The colored solid
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17 lines, which are labeled with q 1 through q 7 , in Fig. 6, are the exit fluid temperature rises
18 caused by respective heat flux pulses, q CON , for average velocity of 0.65 m/s. The mean exit
19 fluid temperature, Tpredicted,t , obtained the summation of the temperature rises caused by
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20 multiple heat flux pulses is written as Eq. (16).

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21 Tpredicted,t =Tin + ∑ni=1 ∆Ti,t (16)

22 where Tin is the inlet fluid temperature of the tube, ∆Ti,t is the exit working fluid temperature
23 rise caused by the ith heat flux pulse at time t, and n is the total number of the heat flux
24 pulses.

25 The predicted exit fluid temperature is then compared with FEM results. The mean
26 absolute deviation (MAD) between the predicted and FEM simulation result temperature is
27 2.5 K. MAD is a statistical method to measure the accuracy of model through the average

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1 temperature difference, the equation is shown in Eq. (17). MAD also used by Dahmani et al.
2 [47] to judge the accuracy of its model.

3 MAD=1/n ∑ZTFEM -Tpredicted Z (17)

4 where TFEM and Tpredicted refer to the temperatures simulated by FEM and predicted by
5 proposed methodologies respectively.

1000

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GHI (W/m2)

800
G2
600
G4

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400 G5 G7
G3
200 G6
G1
0

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700
Exit Temperature, Texit (K)

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600
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Eq. (10)
q3 FEM
q2
q4 q5 q6 q7
500
q1
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400
0 200 400 600 800
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Time (s)
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7 Figure 6 Illustration of prediction method by principle of superposition

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9 2.5 Prediction algorithm

10 The flowchart of the collector tube exit fluid temperature prediction methodology is
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11 depicted in Fig. 7. The temperature prediction algorithm is programmed as a MATLAB code,

12 which consists of ANN, superposition process and radiation heat loss estimation. The
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13 temperature rise caused by single heat flux at time t is predicted by ANN discussed in section
14 2.3. The ANN software automatically creates ANN written in C language (shown in Fig. 5),
15 which is called by the prediction algorithm. Using the predicted temperature rise caused by
16 single heat flux, the solar collector tube exit temperature caused by consecutive heat flux
17 pulses is predicted by superposition principle, which is discussed in section 2.4. The radiation
18 heat loss from the collector tube surface is estimated from the predicted exit temperature. The
19 radiation heat loss estimation is discussed later in this section. The estimated heat loss is
20 reduced from the solar radiation heat flux for the next time step. The whole process is
21 repeated in the next time step. The radiation heat loss is estimated based on quasi-steady state
22 equilibrium [48]. Because of the low thermal resistance from the working fluid to the

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1 collector tube outside surface, the collector tube surface temperature is considered to be the
2 same as the fluid temperature at the corresponding longitudinal location. The predicted exit
3 fluid temperature obtained from superposition is used to estimate the radiation heat loss by
4 using Eq. (18). The emissivity of the outer surface is assumed to be 0.1, which is calculated
5 through the coating emissivity equation stated by Wang et al. [13]. The surrounding
6 temperature of 303 K is assumed. The calculated heat loss is subtracted from the heat flux
7 pulse in the next time step. The net radiation heat flux to the solar collector tube is expressed
8 as Eq. (19).

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9 q loss =σε[ ITw 4 -Tsurr 4 L (18)

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10 where σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, ε is the emissivity of the collector tube outer
11 surface, Tw is temperature of the collector tube outer surface, and Tsurr is the surrounding
12 temperature.

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13 q net =q CON - q loss (19)

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AN Start time step, n

Input parameter of solar radiation, velocity and time

Compute temperature rise at exit collector tube caused by single heat flux, T(t)
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Perform summation of temperature rise at exit collector tube, T(t)

Calculate collector tube radiation heat loss, Qloss

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Incorporate radiation heat loss in next time step

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yes Step n is repeated for every

solar radiation 1-minute
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no

End
14
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15 Figure 7 Combination of ANN and superposition in the flowchart for collector tube exit fluid
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16 temperature prediction

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18 2.6 Numerical computation model validation

19 To validate the reliability of the FEM simulation model, a steady state turbulent
20 forced convection with constant heat flux model is solved and the result is compared with the
21 result obtained by ANSYS FLUENT. The exit fluid temperatures obtained by the two models
22 agree well within 1 K of temperature difference for the case of average velocity of 1 m/s, heat
23 flux of 20000 W/m2, tube length of 50 m, and tube diameter of 0.07 m. Furthermore, another

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1 steady state thermal model of parabolic solar receiver, which is developed by Forristall [49]
2 is used to validate the COMSOL model. A two-dimensional model with the same collector
3 geometry and operating conditions with variable fluid properties is built in COMSOL. The
4 exit fluid temperatures are compared in Fig. 8. In the figure, the exit fluid temperatures
5 obtained from the FEM model show good agreement with the Forristall thermal model with
6 temperature difference of less than 5 K. This confirms the reliability of the FEM software,
7 which is used for the comparison with the developed model. For this study, the model of
8 collector tube is built and numerically solved with equally spaced grids in both flow and

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9 radial directions, the velocity distribution at the tube exit is compared with the universal
10 velocity profile. The velocity distributions with different mesh numbers in the radial direction
11 are plotted in Fig. 9. The effect of the mesh number on the velocity distribution is slight and

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12 the FEM results agree well with the universal velocity profile. Through these results, a mesh
13 of 30 elements in the radial direction and 1500 elements in the flow direction is chosen for

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14 the study.

320
Exit Temperature, Texit (K)

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300
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280 Forristall [48]

FEM model
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260
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0 100 200 300 400

Length of collector tube (m)
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16 Figure 8 Comparison between Forristall [49] model and the FEM model
17

30
+

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dimensionless velocity,u
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20
u+=2.5ln( y+)+5.5
10
mesh 20
mesh 30
+
u =y
+ mesh 40
0
100 101 102 103 104
dimensionless wall coordinate, y+
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19 Figure 9 Number of mesh element effect on velocity profile

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1 In addition, a heat transfer tube experiment is performed to validate the reliability of
2 numerical simulation. Detail of the setup is shown in Fig. 10. The facility includes heat
3 transfer tube, heater, water storage tank, electrical power supply, data acquisition system and
4 flow meter. In the experiment, water at room temperature is used as the working fluid. Water
5 surface height is maintained constant in the water tank so that steady water flow is obtained.
6 The water flow rate is controlled by a valve at the tube exit. The flow rate is measured by an
7 electromagnetic flow meter (OMNI-XF), which is calibrated with the conventional weighing
8 method. The heat transfer tube is made up of four 1-m stainless steel tubes (Do = 0.034 m; Di

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9 = 0.0272 m). A silicon rubber coated resistive heater of 1.8 kW is attached to the whole outer
10 surface of the stainless steel tube with vulcanization so that uniform heat flux is obtained in
11 the heater section. The output of four heaters is almost identical except for the first heater, as

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12 the resistance in first heater is 20 % higher when compare to three others heater. The
13 maximum operating temperature of the heater is 60 °C. The electrical power to the heater is

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14 controlled via two ways, first is PID control system which the heater temperature is
15 controlled to a set value, and second is manual power control which the electrical power is
16 controlled in a phase angle dial. Thermocouples (Type K) are used to measure the heater,

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17 tube wall, inlet fluid and exit fluid temperatures, the location is shown in Fig. 11. The
18 thermocouple in the study has been calibrated before used, the uncertainty of temperature
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19 within 0 to 100 °C ± 0.3 °C. For the validation to confirm the reliability of numerical
20 simulation, similar model to the experiment setup is built in the simulation. Constant electric
21 power is provided to each of heater section starting from time 0 during experiment.
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22 Temperature profile of inlet and tube wall obtained from the experiment is given to the
23 boundary condition of the built model. Thermal transient condition with three different water
24 flow velocity of 0.21 m/s 0.30 m/s and 0.36 m/s are performed. The comparison of exit
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25 temperature between the simulation and experiment is shown in Table 2. Tin, Twall, heater, Texit,
26 experiment, Texit, simulation represents the temperature of inlet, wall and exit. According to the table,
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27 the result of exit temperature from the numerical simulation shows good agreement with the
28 experiment result with temperature difference of less than 0.3 °C. This result confirms the
29 reliability of numerical simulation.
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water tank
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Power supply
Tube and
fiberglass heater
insulator

flow meter
drain tank
30

31 Figure 10 Experimental system of heat transfer tube

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1

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2 Figure 11 Schematic diagram of thermocouple location

4
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Table 2 Comparison of exit temperature between experiment and simulation for transient
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5 condition

uave Tin Twall,heater1 Twall,heater2 Twall,heater3 Twall,heater4 Texit, Texit, Tdifference

(m/s) (°C) (°C) (°C) (°C) (°C) experiment simulation (°C)
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(°C) (°C)

Case 1 0.21 28.40 30.84 36.29 37.83 38.29 32.73 32.69 0.04
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Case 2 0.30 28.73 30.95 36.97 38.41 38.70 32.99 32.72 0.27
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Case 3 0.37 27.79 29.50 34.52 35.68 35.81 31.11 30.83 0.28

6
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7 3. Prediction results and discussions

8 3.1 Prediction result of ANN model

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9 The developed ANN model is applied to predict the exit fluid temperatures caused by
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10 single heat flux pulses. Fig. 12 shows the test results of transient exit fluid temperatures for
11 1200 seconds with 5 second interval caused by the combinations of 31 different heat flux
12 cases ranged from 0 to 60000 W/m2 and 20 different velocity cases ranged 0.35 to 1.45 m/s.
13 The solid red line indicates the perfect prediction. The predicted temperatures are lies within
14 5% error band. Multilayer feed forward network provides the best overall performance with
15 the coefficients of multiple determination, R2 of 0.9999 and mean square error (MSE) of
16 0.087 K. These results obtained by the developed model agree well with the FEM model
17 results, which is close enough to a perfect fit (R2 = 1). The maximum deviation between the
18 temperatures predicted by the ANN model and simulated by FEM is 4.27 K.

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520

Predicted Temperature (K)

500

480

460

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440

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420

420
440 460 480 500 520

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1
FEM Temperature (K)
2 Figure 12 Test result of ANN prediction and FEM temperatures caused by single heat pulse
3

4 3.2 Prediction results for one day operation

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5 In general, Malaysia has no distinctive seasons and its daily weather is classified as
6 sunny, cloudy, and rainy. The clouds usually exist even on sunny days and it is clearly seen in
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7 Fig. 1. The measured solar radiation on a typical sunny day fluctuates because of the presence
8 of clouds. Fig. 13 shows the prediction results for a case of highly fluctuating solar radiation
9 in a day. This kind of solar radiation fluctuation is common in Malaysia. Prediction results
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10 show that the exit fluid temperatures fluctuate according to the trend of solar radiation.
11 Thermal performance of the working fluid is highly dependent on the transient solar radiation
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12 condition. To further confirm the accuracy of the ANN prediction for single heat flux pulses,
13 the predicted results are compared with the exit fluid temperature obtained by a combination
14 of linear interpolation method and the superposition principle. Linear interpolation (LI) is
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15 used for predicting the exit temperature rises caused by selected magnitude of single heat flux
16 pulses while the superposition principle is applied to predict the temperature rises from
17 multiple heat flux pulses. The results obtained from FEM are used for the linear interpolation.
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18 Both prediction results by the combination of ANN with superposition principle and linear
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19 interpolation with superposition principle are compared with the temperature obtained by the
20 FEM analysis to prove the accuracy of the prediction result.

21 Furthermore, the prediction results for different radiation patterns are compared.
22 According to the measured solar radiation, the radiation patterns can be divided into four
23 major categories: highly fluctuating, less fluctuating, fluctuating during only a certain period,
24 and stable cases. The prediction results for these patterns are tested to confirm the accuracy of
25 the developed prediction model. The results are shown in Table 3. Different average
26 velocities, uave , are used to ensure the reliability of the developed model. Table 3 (a) shows
27 the results for the case of highly fluctuated solar radiation, which is also shown in Fig. 13.
28 Table 3 (b) shows the results for the case of less radiation fluctuation. Because the solar

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1 radiation is low on the selected day, the fluid velocity is relatively low. Table 3 (c) indicates
2 the results for the case with solar radiation fluctuation in a certain period of time. Table 3 (d)
3 depicts the results for the case of stable solar radiation with slight fluctuations. The predicted
4 temperatures agree well with the FEM results in all of the four cases. The MAD for 11 hours
5 of operation is less than 2 K, while the average MAD for the four main categories of solar
6 radiation is around 0.8 K. The prediction results for ANN with superposition and linear
7 interpolation with superposition are almost equivalent with the difference of 0.2 K in MAD.
8 The linear interpolation is easier to use when compared to ANN. However, as both heat flux

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9 and fluid velocity are the critical design parameters, ANN requires fewer cases of FEM
10 results for single heat flux pluses compared to the interpolation to cover all of the possible
11 prediction cases. ANN is especially useful for fluid control simulations where continuous

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12 velocity change is required. In addition, when the collector tube length is added as another
13 ANN input parameter the model is possible to predict the exit fluid temperature under

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14 different tube length cases at basic design stage.

15 The exit fluid temperatures for the one-day operation from 7 am to 6 pm is predicted
16 for less than 1-minute of computational time by using the proposed method by a personal

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17 computer with AMD A9-9420 Radeon R5 cores 2C, 3.0 GHz processor, and 4 GB DDR4
memory. The time required for ANN training is approximately 12 hours on the same personal
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18
19 computer. The training is needed to perform only once. On the contrary, 3 to 4 hours of
20 computational time is required to compute the exit fluid temperatures of one day operation
21 through FEM using a high-performance CPU, with 6-core Intel Xeon E5-1650v3 3.5 GHz
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22 processor, and 64 GB DDR4 memory. A large reduction of computational time is achieved

23 compared to the conventional FEM. Thus, the method is especially suitable to the initial
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24 design stage, which involves multiple cases of radiation condition evaluations. By using the
25 developed prediction methodology, the exit temperature for one year under constant velocity
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26 can be calculated in less than 6 hours.

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1000
800

2)
GHI (W/m
600
400
200
0
Exit Temperature, Texit (K)

700

PT
FEM
ANN (MAD=0.94 K)
LI (MAD=0.93 K)
600

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500

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400
8 10 12 14 16 18

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time (h)
1
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2 Figure 13 Predicted temperature compare with FEM from 7 am - 6 pm with uave= 1.25 m/s

3
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5
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6
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8
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9
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10
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11

12

13

14

15

16

17

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1 Table 3 Prediction result for four main categories of solar radiation pattern
max max
MAD MAD
error error
One-day solar radiation pattern by
by
by linear
by linear
ANN interpolation
ANN interpolation
(a) Case of highly fluctuated solar radiation 0.94 K 6.20 K 0.93 K 6.60 K
1000
GHI (W/m2)

500

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0
8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (hr)

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uave = 1.25 m/s
(b) Case of less fluctuated solar radiation 0.94 K 4.52 K 1.07 K 5.25 K
1000
GHI (W/m )
2

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500

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8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (hr)
uave = 0.67 m/s
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(c) Case of fluctuated solar radiation in a certain period 0.71 K 3.92 K 0.60 K 4.10 K
1000
GHI (W/m2)

500

0
8 10 12 14 16 18
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Time (hr)
uave = 0.90 m/s
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(d) Case of stable solar radiation with slight fluctuation 0.72 K 5.82 K 0.63 K 4.55 K
1000
GHI (W/m )
2

500
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0
8 10 12 14 16 18
Time (hr)
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uave = 1.45 m/s

2
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3 In a typical solar thermal system, the mass flow rate in the solar field is controlled to
4 maintain the outlet temperature at a specified value when the incident solar radiation
5 fluctuates. From the result shown in Fig. 13, the exit fluid temperature is highly dependent on
6 solar radiation. The changes in the exit fluid temperature are significant when the solar
7 radiation fluctuates. Fig. 14 shows 3 hours of constant temperature control operation where
8 the target temperature is 610 K. The MAD is 1.28 K and the maximum error compared to
9 FEM results is 8.2 K. These results are obtained by the modified equation shown in Eq. (20).
10 For a case of long tube model, when the averaged fluid velocity suddenly changes from u1 to
11 u2 at time t0, the energy conservation principle is violated for the exit temperature obtained
12 from Eq. (16). Therefore, the superposition equation is rearranged so that the energy

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1 conservation principle is maintained. Note that Eq. (20) is equivalent to Eq. (16) when the
2 fluid velocity does not change. Although the inlet fluid temperature is assumed to be constant
3 in this study, Eq. (20) can be applied to any inlet fluid temperature. The result in Fig. 14
4 shows that the developed model can be used for constant exit temperature operation
5 simulation. This indicates the potential for the model to be used as a predictor in a control
6 simulator for early design stage. Through the proposed model, transient thermal performance
7 of parabolic solar trough technology close to the practical situations can be forecasted

Tpredict,t =Tin + ∑ni=1 ∆Tu1,i,t × ωIti -t0 L+ ∑ni=1 ∆Tu2,i,t ×{1-ωIti -t0 L}

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8 (20)

9 where ∆Tu1,i,t is the exit fluid temperature rise at time t caused by the ith heat flux pulse under
the fluid velocity of u1, ∆Tu2,i,t is the exit fluid temperature rise at time t caused by the ith heat

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10
11 flux pulse under the fluid velocity of u2. ω Iti -t0 L is a weight function and ti is the starting
12 time of the ith heat flux pulse. The weight function, ω Iti -t0 L is plotted in the Fig. 15. The

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13 plot shows the velocity combination switch between the velocities before (u1) and after (u2)
14 the change. The weight functions are based on the respective velocity pair analysis results by
15 FEM analyses, such as u1 = 0.85 and u2 = 0.65 m/s.

600
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GHI (W/m2)

500
400
300
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200
average velocity,

0.6
uave (m/s)

0.5
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700
Exit Temperature, Texit (K)

+10 K
EP

600 -10 K
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500
FEM
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ANN
400
12 13 14 15
16 Time (h)

17 Figure 14 Predicted exit fluid temperature under constant temperature control with
18 varied velocity for 3 hours operation

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1
u2=0.65 m/s

ω(ti-t0)
u1=0.85 m/s 1.45
0
1
u2=0.85 m/s

ω(ti-t0)
u1=0.65 m/s 1.45
0
1
ω(ti-t0) u2=1.05 m/s

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u1=0.65 m/s 1.45
0
1
u2=1.25 m/s

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ω(ti-t0)

u1=0.65 m/s 1.45

0
1

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u2=1.45 m/s
ω(ti-t0)

u1=0.65 m/s 1.25

0
-400 -300 -200 -100 0

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ti-t0 (s)
1
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2 Figure 15 Proposed combination of velocity switch from u1 to u2

3
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4 The temperature effect on the fluid properties is limited and it does not cause
5 distinctive errors even if it is compared with FEM results where the fluid properties are the
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6 functions of temperature. Since the solar thermal energy has low energy density with
7 intermittency, extra attention is required to design the heating part of the energy cycles
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8 compared with the conventional fossil fueled systems. It takes 307 seconds for the working
9 fluid to travel from the inlet to the exit of the collector tube when the fluid velocity is 0.65
10 m/s. When solar radiation fluctuates with the duration of shorter than 307 second, complex
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11 working fluid temperature distribution occurs along the collector tube and it is practically
12 impossible to control the exit temperature just by adjusting the fluid velocity. Hence, thermal
13 storage or an auxiliary heater must be combined with the solar thermal power generation
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14 systems to compensate the intermittency of solar energy especially in the area with frequent
15 solar radiation fluctuation.
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16

17 4. Conclusion

18 This work presents a transient prediction methodology for the exit fluid temperature
19 of a parabolic trough solar collector tube. The proposed method combines ANN and
20 superposition principle in the prediction algorithm. The developed model is sensitive to the
21 weather change with the 1-minute heat input. Less than 1 minute computational time is
22 required to predict the one-day exit fluid temperature with the developed method. Prediction
23 results show relatively small deviations from the commercially available FEM software

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1 solutions with the overall MAD is less than 2 K. Because of the fast prediction capability, the
2 proposed method can replace the conventional FEM to perform an annual yield assessment
3 during initial design stage. The methodology enables the exit fluid temperature predictions
4 with multiple radiation conditions within reasonably short time. The prediction results are
5 reasonably accurate for simulation models, while large computational time reduction is
6 attained. The obtained results suggest that it is possible to apply the proposed methodology to
7 control simulators.

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8

9 Acknowledgements

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10 The authors would like to express their appreciation to University Technology Malaysia and
11 Takasago Thermal Engineering Co, Ltd., Japan, for providing financial support for this work

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12 through Takasago education and research grant, R.K1300000.7343.4B211. They also thank
13 Wind Engineering for (Urban, Artificial, Man-made) Environment Laboratory in University
14 Technology Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur for providing weather data.

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15
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16 Nomenclature

a aperture width (m)

A surface area of the tube (m2)
M

ANI aperture normal irradiance

ANN artificial neural network
Cp specific heat (J/kg.K)
D

Cr concentration ratio
Cε1 , Cε2 , Cμ k-ε model constants
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Di inner diameter of tube (m)

Do outer diameter of tube (m)
DHI diffuse horizontal irradiance
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DNI direct normal irradiance

f focal length (m)
FEM finite element method
FVM finite volume method
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GANI aperture normal irradiance

GDNI direct normal irradiance
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GDHI diffuse horizontal irradiance

GGHI global horizontal irradiance
GHI global horizontal irradiance
k thermal conductivity (W/m.K)
MAD mean absolute deviation
MSE mean square error
n total number of data set
p pressure (Pa)
Pk pressure (Pa)
q CON concentrated radiation heat flux
q loss radiation heat loss

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q net net radiation heat flux
r radius
r+0 dimensionless radius
R2 coefficients of multiple determination
Re Reynold number
t time
u+ dimensionless velocity
u velocity (m/s)
u velocity vector (m/s)

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uave average velocity (m/s)
T temperature (K)
y+ dimensionless wall coordinate

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Greek symbols
α learning rate of ANN

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αpi activation for each node of ANN
αr coating absorbance
β momentum rate of ANN
βi weighted average of ANN
∆
σ
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difference or variation
Stefan-Boltzmann constant (W/m2.K4)
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ε dissipation rate (m2/s3)
ε[ emissivity
ρ density (kg/m3)
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ρr mirror reflectivity
τr transmittance cover
 shear stress
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w initial weight of ANN

σk , σε , σT k-ε model constants
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, dynamic viscosity (mPa.s)

µT turbulent viscosity
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Subscripts
exit exit
in inlet
loss heat loss
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predicted predicted
surr surrounding
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wall wall
experiment experiment
simulation simulation
difference difference
1

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Highlights

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(1) A prediction method for the exit fluid temperature of a parabolic trough collector tube was proposed.
(2) The proposed prediction method combines ANN and superposition principle in the prediction algorithm.
(3) Less than 1 minute computation time is required to predict the one-day exit fluid temperature.

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(4) The overall MAD is relatively small, which is less than 2K.
(5) The method can be used to replace the conventional FEM for an annual yield assessment during initial design

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stage.

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