Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial Services
Industry: Then & Now
March 02, 2021
Wimboh Santoso
The Chairman of Indonesia Financial Services Authority
GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC COVID-19 CASES
Indonesia's Active Covid-19 Cases is The Highest in Asia Various countries re-implement lockdown which potentially
implies slowing economic growth in Q1 2021
1,34
114 Million Cases Cases 2020 2021
Million Stringency
36,3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2,52,2 juta
Million Death 2,2 juta Death
Thousand
AS 22 72 68 67 71
EU 24 68 46 56 69
Indonesia new covid-19 cases curve has flattening with fatality rate 2,7% Jepang 28 39 30 37 49
Jerman 28 67 57 61 83
Perancis 37 78 48 62 64
Inggris 24 75 67 69 85
Italia 59 70 54 66 80
Spanyol 32 73 61 68 72
Tiongkok 75 71 78 68 78
Indonesia 42 70 60 61 64
Malaysia 32 68 53 66 75
Filipina 44 92 78 68 61
Thailand 13 71 52 49 55
Vietnam 42 75 68 57 64
2
Source: ourworldindata as of 1 Mar 2021,
covid19.go.id
Measures to
1 contain virus • Lockdown Vaccination
4
spread • Health protocol implementation Massive vaccination plan for 181.5 Million
People in 2 phase (until March 2022)
Measures to mitigate social impact
2 Pandemic & lockdown period pushes millions of
people unemployed and toward starvation & poverty
Continuing Stimulus Policy
S U R V I VA L P E R I O D RECOVERY PERIOD 3
SINERGY OF POLICIES BETWEEN OJK, BANK OF INDONESIA, AND GOVERNMENT
OJK Policy:
Market Stability and Market Sentiment
Approach
Massive and Effective Communication
of Policies to Public
Investors Outflow
Financial
Debtor Loan Loss Loan Inflow
Default Risk
Provision Sector Liquidity Risk
(CKPN) Deposit Outflow
(Bank, NBFI, Capital Market)
4
POLICIES TO SUPPORT ECONOMIC RECOVERY
OJK Regulation No. 11/POJK.03/2020 OJK Regulation No. 48/POJK.03/2020
Valid until March 31st, 2021 Valid until March 31st, 2022
Through this regulation OJK provides credit restructuring mechanism and OJK extend bank credit restructuring policy from March 2021 to March 2022 with the
relaxation of credit assessment to debtors whose businesses are affected by issuance of POJK 48/ POJK.03/2020.
the pandemic.
OJK Regulation No. 14/POJK.05/2020 OJK Regulation No. 58/POJK.05/2020
Valid until Dec 31st, 2020 Valid until April 17th, 2022
The purpose of issuing POJK 14/2020 is as a legal basis in encouraging the As a continuous effort in maintaining NBFI’s stability, OJK extends POJK 14/20, also adding
optimization of the performance of Non-Bank Financial Services Institutions regulations regarding, subjects of the matter, and increasing relaxations such as, meetings
(NBFI). This POJK regulates deadlines for periodic reports submission, fit and technicalities, required working capital, relaxation of securities issuance in the form of debt
proper test, and determining the quality of financing assets, financing securities, and extending time to submit reports.
restructuring and new financing.
The Pandemic raises various risks that affect the financial system, namely default debtors, investor outflows, liquidity risk and capital risk. Credit restructuring relaxation policy by OJK, reducing
the volatility of the capital market to assist financial services institutions in mitigating risks and helping businesses to continue their business activities in the midst of a pandemic. Some other
OJK's support for the PEN program includes:
MSME’s Loan Guarantee Corporate Loan Guarantee Government Fund Placement
Interest Subsidy
Providing related data regarding banking Coordinating with Ministry of Finance in Coordinating with Ministry of Finance in Coordinating with Ministry of Finance in
debtors, finance company, formulating the framework of implementing policy formulating the framework of implementing policy assessing prospective Commercial Bank
Government’s Program Loan, which related to MSME’s loan guarantee and providing related to Corporate Loan guarantee and providing Partners as well as information & data
becomes the basis of giving interest information of criteria that can receive the information of criteria that can receive the exchange.
subsidy. guarantee. guarantee.
29-Jan-20
29-Mar-20
28-Apr-20
25-Oct-20
23-Jan-21
27-Jul-20
26-Aug-20
27-Jun-20
30-Dec-19
28-May-20
24-Dec-20
28-Feb-20
25-Sep-20
24-Nov-20
22-Feb-21
2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 2020* 2021* JPN 7.72%
Dec-20 5979.1 6.53
S KOREA 7.90%
GDP Growth (yoy) IMF World Bank HKN 10.81%
ADB Bloomberg OECD Jan-21 5862.3 -1.95
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%
Feb-21 6241.5 3.62
Confidence in domestic market recovery
encourages non-resident investors to invest
Budget Realization on National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) Capital raising through securities issuance reached IDR118.7 in both gov’t debt securities and equity
has reached 83.4% of IDR695,2 Tn (USD 47,9 Bn) budget allocation Tn in 2020. Indonesia recorded the highest number of IPOs market which recorded a net buy in
(4.4% of 2020 GDP) as of 31 December 2020. among ASEAN countries (53 issuers as of December-2020) February 2021.
The realization
100 Gov't Debt Securities Equity
83.40% continues in 2021 IDR Tn IPO
Rights Issue 50
with adjusted 180 Corporate Bond & Sukuk
3.79 10.02
62.1%
52.3%
431.54
579.78 allocation, 160
140
0
45.8%
120 -50
30.4% 355.1 100
92.3
21.2% 318.5
80 -100
211.6 60
147.7 20.3
40 -150
Jul-20 Agu-20 Sep-20 Okt-20 Nov-20 Des-20 6.1
Jan-19
May-19
Jul-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Sep-20
Jan-20
Jan-21
May-20
Mar-19
Jul-20
Sep-19
20
Nov-19
Realization (in IDR Trillion) % of Realization 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
6
STRONG SIGNALS OF RECOVERY
CEMENT PROCUREMENT
3.11%
RETAIL SALES 4.8% Dec-20 Q3 to Q4
Dec-20 yoy
4.8
18.06
Dec-20 million
tons
-19.2
Nov-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jan-20
Jan-21
Dec-20
Jul-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
YoY MtM
Source : Bank Indonesia
7
Source : Kemenperin
GROWING PUBLIC PURCHASING POWER TO BOOST THE ECONOMY
The latest mobility data in Q1-2021 shows a The decline in both spending and commuting Population mobility has been shown to be
decline, lower than S2-2020… activities, the lowest since May 2020 … positively correlated with GDP during 2020 …
20 Spending: supermarket, restaurant, mall 15%
normal 10 2020: Q1 Q2
2020: Q1 Q2 Mobility: station, park, office Q3 Q4
15 Q3 Q4 0 10%
-10 -15 2021: Q1F
2021: Q1 5%
PDB % qtq
10 -20
-30 0%
5 -40 -5%
-31
-50
-10%
07-Jul-20
27-Jul-20
03-Jan-21
23-Jan-21
18-Feb-20
15-Okt-20
12-Feb-21
05-Sep-20
25-Sep-20
18-Apr-20
14-Des-20
09-Mar-20
29-Mar-20
08-Mei-20
28-Mei-20
04-Nov-20
24-Nov-20
17-Jun-20
16-Agu-20
0
-15%
<-30
0 - 2.5
2.5 - 5
5 - 7.5
-30 - -27.5
-27.5 - -25
-25 - -22.5
-22.5 - -20
-20 - -17.5
-17.5 - -15
-15 - -12.5
-12.5 - -10
-2.5 - 0
-10 - -7.5
-7.5 - -5
-5 - -2.5
Consumer confidence in buying durable goods has The DBS Consumer Survey shows that people consume more for their food needs than before the
decreased, especially among respondents who pandemic. People tend to hold back on consumption and choose to save and invest
spend Rp3.1 - 4 million per month
Food as % ofconsumption basket: Before vs after COVID-19
51.4% Food before Food after
50.1%
49.5% 49.3% 49.5%
49.1% 49.0%
48.8% 48.9%
48.6%
Sumber: BI, BPS, Google Community Mobility Reports per 17 Februari 2021, Bloomberg, MIT COVID Analytics, Kawal COVID-19, DBS 8
FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR HIGHLIGHT
CAPITAL MARKET BANKING
HIGHLIGHTS 6.338,5 (March 1, 2021) Item
INTERMEDIATION
Des 2020 Jan 2021
Loan (IDR) 5.481,6 T 5.391,7 T
CAPITAL INFLOW/OUTFLOW (YoY) -2,41% -1,92%
Strong capital Net buy/sell Des-20 TOTAL Third Party Fund (IDR) 6.665 T 6.569,7 T
ratio and ample Jan-21 Feb-21 Ytd (YoY) 11,11% 10,57%
2020
LDR 82,24% 82,15%
liquidity Stock (IDR T) -3,96 -47,81 10,94 3,6 14,54
CAPITAL
Govt Bond 3,40 -87,95 13,41 -15,92 -2,52 CAR 23,78% 24,50%*
(IDR T)
-1,92% Loan Growth LOCAL INVESTOR PORTION PROFITABILITY
yoy (Jan-21) Item Des 2020 Jan 2021
Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Net Profit yoy -33,08% -13,32%
% local investor
51,1 50,2 50,6 - NIM 4,32% 4,55%
Capital Inflow ownership
Rp24,34 BOPO 86,55% 84,58%
Trillion (Jan-21) Local investor
3,4 3,6 3,9 4,22 RISK PROFILE
number
CREDIT RISK
53
Highest number NON-BANK FI Item Des 2020 Jan 2021
of IPO in ASEAN CAPITAL NPL Gross 3,06% 3,17%
Emiten
(2020) Item Des 2020 Jan 2021 NPL Net 0,98% 1,03%
Billions
Millions
IHSG 4,22 1.40
7000 450 3.88 20.00 20.911.20
Frekuensi
Highest
Volatilitas (rhs) IHSG
transaksi
Transaction 6338.51, 6% 15.00 1.00
400
Frequency
tertinggi ytd 0.80
6500
(14-Jan-21)
2.48
10.00 0.60
350
1.62 5.00
0.40
6000
1.12 0.20
300 0.89
- -
5,979.07
2018 2019 2020 s.d Feb
30-Nov-20; 2021
5500
5,612.42 250
transaksi Transaction
Volume Volume
Transaksi (share)
(share)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-21
tertinggi Transaction
Frekuensi Frequency
Transaksi
200
5000
In early 2021, the number of capital market investors reached 4.22 million, dominated
by retail investors of 99.6% and investors under 30 years of age and investors with
150 income of 10-100 million dominating over 50%.
4500 Meanwhile, activity in the capital market is getting more stretched in terms of the
frequency and volume of transactions, which increased sharply during the pandemic,
100
where on 14-Jan it set a record for the highest frequency
4000 miliar USD
50 20 Capital inflow/outflow Stock and Gov’t Bond
0
-20
3500 0
-40
1-Jun-20
13-Jan-20
27-Jan-20
23-Mar-20
20-Apr-20
4-May-20
19-Oct-20
11-Jan-21
25-Jan-21
13-Jul-20
27-Jul-20
10-Aug-20
24-Aug-20
15-Jun-20
29-Jun-20
7-Sep-20
2-Nov-20
8-Feb-21
30-Dec-19
9-Mar-20
6-Apr-20
18-May-20
5-Oct-20
14-Dec-20
28-Dec-20
10-Feb-20
24-Feb-20
21-Sep-20
16-Nov-20
30-Nov-20
22-Feb-21
-60
-80 India Indonesia Malaysia Filipina Thailand Vietnam
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 10
Loan Based on Debtor Category and Usage Type
18.00% Konsumsi
Consumer
12.00%
Investasi
Investment
10.00% 16.00%
8.00% Total
TotalKredit
Loan
14.00%
6.00%
4.00% 12.00%
10.29%
2.00%
-1.66% 10.00%
0.00%
-1.92% 8.00%
-2.00%
-2.00% 6.09%
-4.00% 6.00%
-6.00% -3.48% 5.93%
4.00%
-8.00%
3.41%
2.00%
0.00%
Kredit Korporasi
Corporate Loan Kredit Pemerintah
Government (+BUMN)
Loan (+ SOE)
Total Kredit
Total Loan Kredit
MSME UMKM
Loan
Based on the type of purposes growth on a yoy & mtm basis, all of them
The contraction in total loan growth was mainly due to corporate loan
still contracted, but working capital loan with a 44.4% share of total loan
with a 38.75% share of total loan which contracted significantly -3.48%
had the largest contraction of -3.21% yoy (Des'20: -4.31%) and -2.90 %
yoy (Dec 20: -3.36%) and -2.87% mtm (Dec 20: 1.16%) )
mom (Dec'20: 0.57%)
%%Pertumbuhan
Growth Nominal %%Growth
Pertumbuhan Nominal
KATEGORI DEBITUR
Debtor Category Jan-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Porsi
Portion JENIS PENGGUNAAN
Purposes Jan-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Porsi
Portion
yoy mtm yoy mtm yoy mtm yoy mtm
UMKM
MSME Loan 1.093,0 1.088,3 1.074,9 19,9% -1,66% -1,23% -18,1 -13,4
Modal KerjaCapital
Working 2.473,1 2.465,4 2.393,8 44,4% -3,21% -2,90% -79,3 -71,6
Corporate Loan
Korporasi 2.166,8 2.153,1 2.091,4 38,8% -3,48% -2,87% -75,3 -61,7
Konsumsi
Consumer 1.557,7 1.547,5 1.541,8 28,6% -1,02% -0,37% -15,9 -5,6 Investasi
Investment 1.472,0 1.468,7 1.461,5 27,1% -0,71% -0,49% -10,5 -7,2
Pemerintah
Gov’t + SOE[+BUMN] 521,2 514,7 510,8 9,5% -2,00% -0,76% -10,4 -3,9 Konsumsi
Consumer 1.557,7 1.547,5 1.541,8 28,6% -1,02% -0,36% -15,9 -5,6
Perseorangan
Individual 164,0 177,9 178,1 3,3% 8,59% 0,14% 14,1 0,3 TOTAL 5.502,8 5.481,6 5.397,1 100% -1,92% -1,54% -105,7 -84,4
TOTAL 5.502,8 5.481,6 5.397,1 100% -1,92% -1,54% -105,7 -84,4 11
Sumber: diolah dari LBU
BANKS’ CAPITAL, RISK, AND LIQUIDITY PROFILE
100.00%
LIQUIDITY 2.219 14.00%
LDR Loan growth
Kredit YoY ThirdYoY
DPK Party Fund yoy
17/02/21 12.00% yoy
10.57%
91.92%
2,400 170.00%
10.00% 11.11% 95.00%
ALNCD (RHS) AL NCD 160.00%
2,200
150.00% 8.00%
2,000 90.00%
140.00% 6.00%
82.24%
1,800
82.15%
1.241 130.00% 4.00%
85.00%
1,600 15/01/20 120.00%
157,14% 2.00%
110.00%
1,400 0.00%
100.00% 80.00%
-2.41%
1,200
90.00%
-2.00% -1.92%
16-May-20
5-Jun-20
2-Jan-19
3-Mar-19
12-Apr-19
9-Oct-19
28-Dec-19
4-Aug-20
22-Dec-20
26-Apr-20
3-Oct-20
11-Jun-19
22-Jan-19
23-Mar-19
1-Jul-19
10-Aug-19
30-Aug-19
17-Mar-20
25-Jun-20
24-Aug-20
29-Oct-19
17-Jan-20
6-Feb-20
18-Nov-19
23-Oct-20
11-Jan-21
31-Jan-21
12-Nov-20
11-Feb-19
21-Jul-19
2-May-19
19-Sep-19
26-Feb-20
15-Jul-20
13-Sep-20
8-Dec-19
2-Dec-20
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Mei-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Agu-19
Sep-19
Okt-19
Nov-19
Des-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Mei-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Agu-20
Sep-20
Okt-20
Nov-20
Des-20
Jan-21
12 12
INTEREST RATE
Interest Rate
Lending Rate
12.50 11.43
10.95
10.50 10.13 The lending rate (SBK) has experienced a downward trend
9.27
8.50
9.87
8.83
in all types of Loan usage, even the SBK for investment and
6.50 6.87 working capital SBK has reached single digits. Details of the
6.00 5.00
5.64 decline in SBK since the position in January last year:
4.50
3.75
2.50 SBK for Working Capital decreased by 86 bps to 9.27%
SBK Investment decreased 105 bps to 8,83%
KMK KI KK Policy rate Deposito 12m SBK Consumer decreased 49 bps to 10,95%
Working
Investment Consumer Policy Rate Deposit 12 m
Capital
10.00
Base Lending Rate The Base Lending Rate in all loan segments is also
9.50 reached single digit:
9.00
Retail 8,76%
8.50
8.76
8.60 Corporate 8,60%
8.00
8.53
Mortgage 8,53%
8.19
Non-Mortgage 8,19%
7.50
7.19 Micro 7,19%
7.00
Des-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Mei-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Agu-20 Sep-20 Okt-20 Nov-20 Des-20 Jan-21
VACCINATION
PLAN
ZONING
AREA
$48.9
Billion 1. Vaccine procurement and 1. Tourism
operating costs 1. Family Hope Program (PKH) 2. Food Estate
(Rp699,4 2. Facilities and infrastructure and 2. Basic Food Card 3. ICT Development
3. Pre-Employment Support
Trillion) medical devices
4. Village Fund Direct Cash Assistance
4.
5.
Subsidy
Regional Loans
3. Hospital treatment subsidy
4. Health incentives and 5. Cash Social Assistance 6. Labor Intensive (Gov’t Institution)
compensation for mortality cases 6. Distance Learning Quota Subsidy 7. Industrial Area
5. BPJS Contribution Assistance 7. Electricity Discount 8. Other Priority Programs
MSME Digitalization
Expanding the UMKM digitization
ecosystem from upstream to
downstream with the UMKM-MU
platform, and Bank Wakaf Mikro
Mobile
Mortgage
Down Payment 0-30% (LTV ≥70%) RWA 35%
Down Payment 30-50% (LTV 50-70%) RWA 25% Vehicle Loan and Car Financing
Down Payment ≥ 50% (LTV ≤ 50%) RWA 20% 1. RWA for Car/Motorcycle Loan (KKB): 100% 50%
2. Banks with risk profile 1 and 2 may provide loan
for automotive sector:
Healthcare Industry Credit Support Down Payment 0%
3. RWA for battery-based/electric vehicle manufacturers
RWA for heathcare and public health:
(KBLBB): 100% 50%
100% 50% 16
LOAN RESTRUCTURING RELATED TO COVID-19
Total Debtors
Banking Loan Restructuring 9,000,000
Perbankan
Realised 8-Feb: Number of Account Outstanding 8,000,000
7,000,000
MSME 6,2 million Rp388,3 Trillion 6,000,000
5,000,000
(USD27.57 Billion)
4,000,000
Non-MSME 1,8 million Rp599,15 Trillion 3,000,000
2,000,000
(USD42.54 Billion) 1,000,000
Total 7,9 million Rp987,5 Trillion -
(USD70,11 Billion)
800,000
Number of Outstanding
600,000
Account
400,000
Financing Companies 5,03 million Rp191,46 Trillion
(22 Feb 2021) contracts 200,000
17
INDONESIA FINANCIAL SERVICES OUTLOOK 2021
01 LOAN GROWTH
Loan is estimated to grow in 2020
according to the banks’ business plan
in the range of 7,5% ± 1% (yoy) in line IMF World Bank OECD ADB Government
with the recovery of national economic (Jan 2021) (Jan 2021) (Dec 2020) (Dec 2020) (Feb 2021)
growth.