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Unit 2 - Break Even Analysis and Management Science Modeling Techniques
Unit 2 - Break Even Analysis and Management Science Modeling Techniques
AND
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
MODELING TECHNIQUES
PRINCESS CATHERINE M. SANTIAGO, MBM
LEARNING OUTCOME
At the end of this unit, the students will:
5 Management Science
Modelling Techniques
BREAK-EVEN
01 ANALYSIS
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
q Total cost (TC) equals the fixed cost plus the variable cost per unit
multiplied by volume (v)
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
total cost = total fixed cost + total variable cost
or
TC = cf + vcv
where cf = fixed cost
Example:
TC = cf + vcv
= 500,000 + (400)(400)
= 500,000 + 160,000
TC = P660,000
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
total revenue = vp
where p = price per unit
For our clothing company example, if denim jeans sell for P1,150 per
pair and we sell 400 pairs per month, then the total monthly revenue
is:
total revenue = vp
= (400)(1,150)
= P460,000
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
Now that we have developed relationships for total revenue and total
cost, profit (Z) can be computed as follows:
Z = vp - cf - vcv
0 = v(1,150) - 500,000 - v(400)
0 = 1,150v - 500,000 - 400v
-1,150v + 400v = -500,000
-750v = -500,000
v = -500.000/-750
v = 666.67 pairs of jeans
COMPUTING THE BREAK-EVEN POINT
Z = vp - cf - vcv
= (800)(1150) - 500,000 - (800)(400)
= 920,000 - 500,000 - 320,000
= 100,000
COMPUTING THE BREAK-EVEN POINT
Z = vp - cf - vcv
0 = v(p- cv) -cf
v(p- cv) = cf
v = cf / p- cv
For our example:
• The total cost line, TC, represents the sum of variable cost and fixed
cost. The total cost line increases because variable cost increases as
the volume increases.
• The point where these two lines intersect indicates that total revenue
equals total cost. (break-even point)
• Profit when Revenue > Total Variable cost + Total Fixed cost
• Break-even point when Revenue = Total Variable cost + Total Fixed cost
• Loss when Revenue < Total Variable cost + Total Fixed cost
BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS
When is Break-even analysis used?
• Changing the business model: If the company is about to the change the
business model, like, switching from wholesale business to retail business,
then a break-even analysis must be performed. The costs could change
considerably and breakeven analysis will help in setting the selling price.
04 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
We have now developed a general relationship for determining the break-even
vo l u m e, w h i ch w as t h e o b j ect i ve o f o u r m o d el i n g p r o c e s s . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p
enables us to see how the level of profit (and loss) is directly affected by
changes in volume. However, when we developed this model, we assumed that
our parameters, fixed and variable costs and price, were co n st an t . I n r eal i t y
such parameters are frequently uncertain and can rarely be assumed to be
constant, and changes in any of the parameters can affect the model solution.
The study of changes on a management science model is called sensitivity
analysis—that is, seeing how sensitive the model is to changes.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Break-even analysis assumes that per unit selling price and variable cost do
not change, which is not always the case. Break-even models will change on
the following scenarios:
• change in price
Business in order to sell more goods and services often have to reduce prices.
Sometimes prices are not in control of the business, since they depend on
market conditions and other factors such as government regulation.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Va r i a b l e c o s t s a l s o c h a n g e a s m a t e r i a l , l a b o r a n d o t h e r i n d i r e c t v a r i a b l e
expenses could increase or decrease as quantity changes. For Example, Labor
rates will increase due to overtime if more units are produced. Other variable
cost could also vary with number of units. The break-even analysis also
assumes that all units produced are also sold, which is not always the case.
This tool fails to take into account the demand-side situation, since not all
units produced are sold at the assumed price.
MANAGEMENT
05 SCIENCE MODELING
TECHNIQUES
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE MODELING
TECHNIQUES
Among the Management Science process, two of the steps use the
M an ag emen t S ci en ce Tech n i q u es. T h ese a r e t h e m o d e l c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d
solution. It is difficult to show how an unstructured real-world problem is
identified and defined because the problem must be written out. However,
once a problem statement has been given, we can show how a model is
constructed and a solution is derived.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE MODELING
TECHNIQUES
The management science modeling process helps businesses to improve their
operations through the use of scientific methods and the development of specialized
t ech n i q u es. I t i s t h e p ro cess o f re search i n g f o r an o p t i m a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e e x i s t i n g
problem. Management science modeling process provides systematic, analytical and
general approaches to the problem solving for decision-making, regardless of the
nature of the system, product, or service. Management science modeling process is
the application of scientific methods to complex organizational problems. Models are
aimed at assisting the decision-maker in decision-making process. Management
science modeling process is one of the innovative decision making tool of the
twentieth century.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE MODELING
TECHNIQUES
CLASSIFICATION OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
TECHNIQUES
L i n e a r M a t h e m a t i c a l P r o g r a m m i n g Te c h n i q u e s - T h e t e r m p r o g r a m m i n g u s e d
to identify this technique does not refer to computer programming but rath er
to a predetermined set of mathematical steps used to solve a problem. This
particular class of techniques holds a predominant position in this subject
because it includes some of the more frequently used and popular techniques
in management science. In general, linear programming models help managers
determine solutions (i.e., make decisions) for problems that will achieve some
objective in which there are restrictions, such as limited resources or a recipe
or perhaps production guidelines. Linear programming is also use to solve
t ran sp o rt at i o n , t ran ssh i p men t , an d assi g n i n g p ro b l ems. L i n e a r p r o g r a m m i n g
i s w i d el y u sed i n p ro d u ct i o n p l a n n i n g a n d s c h e d u l i n g . I t i s v e r y w e l l u s e d i n
airline industry for aircraft and crew scheduling.
CLASSIFICATION OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
TECHNIQUES
P r o b a b i l i s t i c Te c h n i q u e s - T h e s e t e c h n i q u e s a r e d i s t i n g u i s h e d f r o m m a t h e m a t i c a l
programming techniques in that the results are probabilistic. It is based on
application of statistics for probability of uncontrollable events as well as risk
assessment of decision. Mathematical programming techniques assume that all
p aramet ers i n t h e mo d el s are kn o w n w i t h cert ai n t y. T h ere f o r e , t h e s o l u t i o n r e s u l t s
a r e a s s u m e d t o b e k n o w n w i t h c e r t a i n t y, w i t h n o p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t o t h e r s o l u t i o n s
might exist. A technique that assumes certainty in its solution is referred to as
d e t e r m i n i s t i c . T h e r e s u l t s f r o m a p r o b a b i l i s t i c t e c h n i q u e d o c o n t a i n u n c e r t a i n t y,
with some possibility that alternative solutions might exist. Probability assessment
tries to fill gap between what is know and what need to be know for an optimal
solution. Therefore, probabilistic models are used to prevent events happening due
to adverse uncertainty.
CLASSIFICATION OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
TECHNIQUES
N e t w o r k Te c h n i q u e s - N e t w o r k s c o n s i s t o f m o d e l s t h a t a r e r e p r e s e n t e d a s
diagrams rather than as strictly mathematical relationships. As such, these models
offer a pictorial repre_x0002_sentation of the system under analysis. These models
represent either probabilistic or deterministic systems. This model is used to solve
physical problems such as transportation or flow of commodities. This technique
uses most cost effective way to transport the goods, to determine
maximum/minimum possible flow from source to destination and to find shortest
critical path in large projects.
CLASSIFICATION OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
TECHNIQUES
O t h e r Te c h n i q u e s - S o m e t e c h n i q u e s a r e n o t e a s i l y c a t e g o r i z e d ; t h e y m a y o v e r l a p s e v e r a l
categories, or they may be unique.
• The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is a technique that is not easily classified. It is a
mathematical technique for helping the decision maker choose between several alternative
decisions, given m or e than one objec t i v e ; h o w e v e r, i t i s n o t a f o r m o f l i n e a r p r o g r a m m i n g , a s
is goal programming on multicriteria decision making.
• The structure of the mathematical models for nonlinear programming problems is similar to
t h e l i n e a r p r o g r a m m i n g p r o b l e m s . H o w e v e r, t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l e q u a t i o n s a n d f u n c t i o n s i n
n o n l i n e a r p r o g r a m m i n g c a n b e n o n l i n e a r i n s t e a d o f l i n e a r, t h u s r e q u i r i n g t h e u s e o f c a l c u l u s
to solve them.
• Simulation is probably the single most unique technique. It has the capability to solve
probabilistic and deterministic problems and is often the technique of last resort when no
other management science technique will work.
SUMMARY
Small businesses are started and made successful by entrepreneurs who share
unique traits. However, as business complexity grows, the need to switch to more
formal planning and decision making based on a systematic analysis of multifaceted
business information also grows. As such, Management Science Modeling
Techniques are perfectly suited for helping such analyses with associated payoffs
that use small firms' scarce technical and managerial resources effectively and
efficiently. Break-even analysis on the other hand, is widely used to determine the
number of units the business needs to sell in order to avoid losses. This calculation
requires the business to determine selling price, variable costs and fixed costs. Once
these numbers are determined, it is fairly easy to calculate break-even point in units
or sales value.
EVALUATION #1
Budgeting During A Pandemic (30)
1. Interview your parents and ask them how much is their income per month.
4. What was the result? if there was a shortage, indicate the reason. If there
was a surplus/savings, provide your ways/methods of saving your money. if
it was break-even, what will be your improvements in your finances?
Submissions will be graded based on the rubric for assessment of learning exercise provided below:
When Phylbert Roque purchased the Mon to Fri Laundry, she thought that
because it was in a good location near several high-income neighborhoods, she
w o u l d a u t o m a t i c a l l y g e n e r a t e g o o d b u s i n e s s i f s h e i m p r o v e d t h e l a u n d r y ’s
physical appearance. Thus, she initially invested a lot of her cash reserves in
r e m o d e l i n g t h e e x t e r i o r a n d i n t e r i o r o f t h e l a u n d r y. H o w e v e r, s h e j u s t a b o u t
broke even in the year following her acquisition of the laundry, which she didn’t
feel was a sufficient return, given how hard she had worked. Phylbert didn’t
realize that the dry-cleaning business is very competitive and that success is
based more on price and quality service, including quickness of service, than on
the laundry’s appearance.
EVALUATION #2
C u r r e n t l y, h e r l a u n d r y b u s i n e s s c a n o n l y c l e a n 1 5 c l o t h e s p e r h o u r ( o r
120 items per day). In order to improve her service, Phylbert is considering
purchasing new dry-cleaning equipment, including a pressing machine that
could substantially increase the speed at which she can dry-clean clothes and
improve their appearance. The new machinery costs P810,000 installed and can
cl ean 40 cl o t h es i t ems p er h o u r ( o r 320 i t ems p er d ay ) . T h e n e w m a c h i n e r y w i l l
give an additional fixed cost of P106,250. Phylbert estimates her variable costs
to be P12.50 per item dry-cleaned, which will not change if she purchases the
new equipment. Her current fixed costs are P85,000 per month. She charges
customers P55 per clothing item.
EVALUATION #2
A. What is Phylbert’s current monthly (30days) volume? (5)
B. If Phylbert purchases the new equipment, how many items
will she have to dry-clean each month to break even? (10)
C. Phylbert estimates that with the n e w e q u i p m e n t , s h e c a n
increase her current volume to additional 6,000 items per
month. What monthly profit would she realize with that level of
business? What would be her total profit in 3 years? (10)
EVALUATION #2
D. Phylbert believes that if she doesn’t buy the new equipment
but lowers her price to P49.50 per item, she will increase her
bus i n e s s v o l u m e . I f s h e l o w e r s h e r p r i c e , w h a t w i l l h e r n e w
break-even volume be? If her price reduction results in a
monthly volume of 3,800 items, what will her monthly profit be?
(20)
E. Phylbert estimates that if she purchases the new equipment
and lowers her price to P49.50 per item, her volume of 9,600
will have an increase of 4,700 units per month. What will her
total profit be? (10)
EVALUATION #2
F. A s P h y l b e r t ’s M a n a g e r i a l S c i e n t i s t , w h a t w i l l b e t h e d e c i s i o n o f P h y l b e r t t o
gain the highest profit? How will you explain the relationship of equipment,
volume and price to her profit. (15)
F.2 Do not buy the eqipment, but lower the price to P49.50
F. 3 B u y t h e e q u i p m e n t , w i t h e s t i m a t e d v o l u m e o f 9 6 0 0 i t e m s p e r m o n t h
and with the same price
F. 4 B u y t h e e q u i p m e n t , w i t h e s t i m a t e d v o l u m e o f 9 6 0 0 i t e m s a n d a n
increase of 4700 per month, then lower the price to P49.50
F. 5 B u y t h e e q u i p m e n t , w i t h e s t i m a t e d v o l u m e o f 9 6 0 0 i t e m s p e r m o n t h
and increase the price to P60
REFERENCES
Break-Even Analysis – Definition, Formula & Examples.(2021, March
18).ClearTax.https://cleartax.in/s/break-even-analysis