Finals Lesson 1 Correlation and Regression

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- He was an
influential English
mathematician and
biostatician.

- In 1911, he founded the

world’s first university
statistics department at
the University College of
London, and contributed
significantly to the field of
biometrics, meteorology,
social Darwinism and
Eugenics.
What is Correlation?
❖It is a statistical method used to
determine whether a relationship
between two variables exists.
❖It also measure of the direction and
strength of linear relationship between
two variables.
❖Direction maybe positive, negative
or zero.
Types of Correlation
❖ Positive correlation
❖ Negative correlation
❖ Zero correlation

Positive Correlation
❖A positive correlation exists
when high values of one variable
correspond to high values in the
other variable or low values in one
variable correspond to low values in
the other variable.

Positive Correlation
10
Score in English
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Score in Mathematics
The graph indicates a direct correlation between

variables x and y which appears to be increasing.
Negative Correlation
➢A negative correlation exist
when high values of one variable
correspond to low values in the
other variable or low values in one
variable correspond to high values
in the other variable.
Negative Correlation
12
Score in English
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
This time the trend of the data is decreasing, hence, the variables are
negatively correlated.
Zero Correlation
➢A zero correlation exists when
high values in one variable
correspond to either high or low
values in the other variable.

Zero Correlation
10
Score in English 8
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
The scatter graph of the data above is neither increasing or decreasing.

This graph represents a zero correlation.
Example:
Determine the direction of
relationship between the following
pairs of variables. Is it positive,
negative or zero?

Example:
1. Room rate and size of a room in
a hotel
A. Positive
B. Negative
C. Zero
Example:
2. Weight and height of students
A. Positive
B. Negative
C. Zero
Example:
3. Pressure and volume of a gas
A. Positive
B. Negative
C. Zero
Example:
4. IQ and height of persons
A. Positive
B. Negative
C. Zero
Example:
5. Number of customers and sales
in a department store
A. Positive
B. Negative
C. Zero
What is Correlation?
❖Strength can be perfect, strong
or high, moderate, low or zero or
none correlation.
Note:
Correlation between two variables
does not prove X causes Y or Y causes
X.
What is Scatter Plot?

❖A scatter plot (or scatter diagram)
is used to show the how each point
collected from a set of bivariate data
are scattered on the Cartesian plane.
❖It gives a good visual picture
between the two variables.
❖It is a graphical representation of the
relationship between two variables.




Example:
Construct the scatterplots for the
following bivariate data using
Microsoft Excel and describe the
relationship in terms of direction
and strength.

Example:

Example:

Example:

- The most widely used in statistics to

measure the degree of the relationship
between the linear related variables.
- The Pearson r correlation would

require both variables to be normally
distributed.

or
n XY −  X  Y
r=
n X 2
− ( X ) n Y − ( Y )
2
 2 2

0.00 no correlation, no relationship

±0.01 to ±0.20 very low correlation, almost negligible relationship
±0.21 to ±0.40 slight correlation, definite but small relationship
±0.41 to ±0.70 moderate correlation, substantial relationship
±0.71 to ±0.90 high correlation, marked relationship
±0.91 to ±0.99 very high correlation, very dependable relationship
±1.00 perfect correlation, perfect relationship

Determine the relationship between the

scores of 10 students who took
Mathematics and English quiz. Assume
that the data is normally distributed.

Mathematics score (x) English score (y)

4 5
5 4
9 8
2 3
8 9
1 2
2 1
7 6
6 7
4 5
Mathematics English
score (x) score (y)
x2 y2 xy
4 5 16 25 20
5 4 25 16 20
9 8 81 64 72
2 3 4 9 6
8 9 64 81 72
1 2 1 4 2
2 1 4 1 2
7 6 49 36 42
6 7 36 49 42
4 5 16 25 20
σ 𝑥 =48 σ 𝑦 =50 σ 𝑥 2 = 296 σ 𝑦 2 = 310 σ 𝑥𝑦 =298
10 298 −(48) (50)

r=
[10 296 −(48)2 [10 310 −(50)2
2980−2,400
r=
[2,960−2,304][3,100−2,500
580 580
r= =
(656)(600) 627.3755
r = 0.92
Very high positive correlation, very dependable relationship

There is high positive correlation between

the scores in Mathematics and scores in
English.

- This tells us how much of dependent

variable (𝑦) is due to or can be attributed
to independent variable (𝑥).
2
- This is denoted as 𝑟 .

From our previous example, if 𝑟 = 0.92

then 𝑟 2 = 0.92 2
= 0.8464 ≈ 0.85.

Eighty-five percent of the variation in

scores in Mathematics is due to or can be
attributed to the variation in the scores in
English. The remaining 15% is due to
other factor.
➢Closer to 0 = weaker
➢Closer to 1.0 = stronger
➢r is equal to ±1.0 perfect

➢r = 0 could mean many things:
➢No relationship at all between X & Y
➢Non-linear relationship between X & Y
➢Restricted range on X and/or Y
➢Outlier may be causing problems

• It is a specific statistical methods

for finding the “line of best fit” for one
response (dependent) numerical
variable based on one or more
explanatory (independent) variables.
• It is the line for which the sum of the
squares of the residuals is a
minimum.

The Least Squares Regression Line

The Least Squares Regression Line is the line
that makes the vertical distance from the data
points to the regression line as small as
possible. It's called a “least squares” because the
best line of fit is one that minimizes the variance
(the sum of squares of the errors).

• To describe or model a set of data with

one dependent variable and one (or more)
independent variables.
• To predict or estimate the values of the
dependent variable based on given
value(s) of the independent variable(s).
• To control or administer standards from a
useable statistical relationship.

• The equation of a regression line for an

independent variable 𝑥 and a dependent
variable 𝑦 is
𝑦ො = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥
• where: a is the y-intercept while b is the
slope of regression line.
• It is used to predict the value of 𝑦
(predictand) from the knowledge of 𝑥
(predictor).
• The slope, b, is given by

𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − σ 𝑥 σ 𝑦
𝑏=
𝑛 σ 𝑥2 − σ 𝑥 2
• and the y-intercept, a, is given by

σ𝑦 σ𝑥
𝑎= −𝑚
𝑛 𝑛

Determine the linear regression between

the scores of 10 students who took
Mathematics and English quiz. Assume
that the data is significantly correlated.

Mathematics English
score (x) score (y)
x2 y2 xy
4 5 16 25 20
5 4 25 16 20
9 8 81 64 72
2 3 4 9 6
8 9 64 81 72
1 2 1 4 2
2 1 4 1 2
7 6 49 36 42
6 7 36 49 42
4 5 16 25 20
σ 𝑥 =48 σ 𝑦 =50 σ 𝑥 2 = 296 σ 𝑦 2 = 310 σ 𝑥𝑦 =298
Solve for slope, b.
𝑛 σ 𝑥𝑦 − σ 𝑥 σ 𝑦
𝑏=
𝑛 σ 𝑥2 − σ 𝑥 2
10 298 − 48 50
𝑏=
10 296 − 48 2
2980 − 2400
𝑏=
2960 − 2304
580
𝑏=
656
𝑏 ≈ 0.8841 ≈ 0.88

Solve for y-intercept, a.
σ𝑦 σ𝑥
𝑎= −𝑚
𝑛 𝑛
50 48
𝑎= − 0.8841
10 10
50 48
𝑎= − 0.8841
10 10
𝑎 = 5 − 0.8841 4.8
𝑎 = 5 − 4.24368
𝑎 = 0.75632 ≈ 0.76
• The linear regression is given by:

𝑦 = 0.76 + 0.88𝑥
• In the context of the problem:
𝑀𝑎𝑡ℎ 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒 = 0.76 + 0.88 𝐸𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑖𝑠ℎ 𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒

𝑦 = 0.76 + 0.88𝑥
• The slope, 𝑏 means that for every 1
unit increase in Math score an increase
of 0.88 in English score.

𝑦 = 0.76 + 0.88𝑥
• The y-intercept, 𝑎 means a score of
0.76 in English score when the student
score zero in Math.

• What will be the English score if the

Math score is 95?
• Solution: Let 𝑥 = 76, find y.
𝑦 = 0.76 + 0.88𝑥
𝑦 = 0.76 + 0.88 95
𝑦 = 0.76 + 83.6
𝑦 = 84.36
• Hence, the English score will be 84.36.


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ISO 9001: 2015 CERTIFIED

EMILIO AGUINALDO COLLEGE QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

- In 1911, he founded the

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

The graph indicates a direct correlation between

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

The scatter graph of the data above is neither increasing or decreasing.

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

What is Scatter Plot?

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

- The most widely used in statistics to

- The Pearson r correlation would

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0.00 no correlation, no relationship

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

Determine the relationship between the

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Mathematics score (x) English score (y)

10 298 −(48) (50)

Very high positive correlation, very dependable relationship

There is high positive correlation between

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

- This tells us how much of dependent

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

From our previous example, if 𝑟 = 0.92

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Eighty-five percent of the variation in

➢r is equal to ±1.0 perfect

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• It is a specific statistical methods

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

The Least Squares Regression Line

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• To describe or model a set of data with

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

• The equation of a regression line for an

• The slope, b, is given by

• and the y-intercept, a, is given by

VIRTUE EXCELLENCE SERVICE

Determine the linear regression between

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Solve for slope, b.

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Solve for y-intercept, a.

• The linear regression is given by:

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• What will be the English score if the

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