13.

19
cost of new machine 250,000
increase nowc 25,000
depreciation rate 33% 45% 15% 7%
depreciation cost 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -25,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes 7,500 -22,500 52,500 72,500
Tax 40% 3,000 -9,000 21,000 29,000
Operating Income After Taxes 4,500 -13,500 31,500 43,500
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 87,000 99,000 69,000 61,000

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -275,000 87,000 99,000 69,000 61,000

NPV Rp37,035.13
IRR 15.30%
MIRR 13%

0 1 2 3 4
Cash Flow -275,000 87,000 99,000 69,000 61,000
Cumulative -275,000 -188,000 -89,000 -20,000 41,000

payback period 3.33 (3+20000/61000)

b
saving decrease 20% cost saving = 90.000*80%=72.000
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -25,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes -10,500 -40,500 34,500 54,500
Tax 40% -4,200 -16,200 13,800 21,800
Operating Income After Taxes -6,300 -24,300 20,700 32,700
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 76,200 88,200 58,200 50,200

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -275,000 76,200 88,200 58,200 50,200

NPV -Rp3,905.37

saving Increase 20% cost saving = 90.000*120%=108.000

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -25,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 108,000 108,000 108,000 108,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes 25,500 -4,500 70,500 90,500
Tax 40% 10,200 -1,800 28,200 36,200
Operating Income After Taxes 15,300 -2,700 42,300 54,300
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 97,800 109,800 79,800 71,800

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -275,000 97,800 109,800 79,800 71,800

NPV Rp77,975.63

C. worst Case Scenario

Cost Saving 72,000
Increase NOWC 30,000
Salvage Value 18,000

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -30,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 72,000 72,000 72,000 72,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes -10,500 -40,500 34,500 54,500
Tax 40% -4,200 -16,200 13,800 21,800
Operating Income After Taxes -6,300 -24,300 20,700 32,700
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 76,200 88,200 58,200 50,200

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -280,000 76,200 88,200 58,200 50,200

NPV -Rp7,663.52

C. Base Case Scenario

Cost Saving 90,000
Increase NOWC 25,000
Salvage Value 23,000

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -25,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes 7,500 -22,500 52,500 72,500
Tax 40% 3,000 -9,000 21,000 29,000
Operating Income After Taxes 4,500 -13,500 31,500 43,500
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 87,000 99,000 69,000 61,000

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -275,000 87,000 99,000 69,000 61,000

NPV Rp37,035.13

C. Best Case Scenario

Cost Saving 108,000
Increase NOWC 20,000
Salvage Value 28,000
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Investment
Initial Investment -250,000
Increase NOWC -20,000

Operating Cash Flow

Cost Saving 108,000 108,000 108,000 108,000
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Income Before Taxes 25,500 -4,500 70,500 90,500
Tax 40% 10,200 -1,800 28,200 36,200
Operating Income After Taxes 15,300 -2,700 42,300 54,300
Depreciation 82,500 112,500 37,500 17,500
Operating Cash Flow 97,800 109,800 79,800 71,800

Terminal Cash Flow

Increase NOWC
Sale of machine
Tax on sale value

Net Cash Flow -270,000 97,800 109,800 79,800 71,800

NPV Rp81,733.79
Probability Prob NPV Prob x NPV
Worst Case 0.35 -Rp7,663.52 -Rp2,682.23
Base Case 0.35 Rp37,035.13 Rp12,962.30
Best Case 0.3 Rp81,733.79 Rp24,520.14
Expected NPV Rp34,800.20

Standard Deviation 36,496.30

CV STD Deviation /Expected NPV

CV Rp1.05
CV positive = project accepted
CV positive = proj+A204ect accepted
Year 5

90,000
0
90,000
36,000
54,000
0
54,000

25,000
23,000
-9,200

92,800

5
92,800
133,800

Year 5

72,000
0
72,000
28,800
 43,200
0
43,200

25,000
23,000
-9,200

82,000

Year 5

108,000
0
108,000
43,200
64,800
0
64,800

25,000
23,000
-9,200

103,600

Year 5

72,000
0
 72,000
28,800
43,200
0
43,200

30,000
18,000
-7,200

84,000

Year 5

90,000
0
90,000
36,000
54,000
0
54,000

25,000
23,000
-9,200

92,800

Year 5
108,000
0
108,000
43,200
64,800
0
64,800

20,000
28,000
-11,200

101,600
22.66667
(450,000*28,80-10,200,000-1,560,000-4,800,000*8%)*(1-40%)

12960000 10200000 1560000 384000 60.00%

816000 489600

(450,000*28,80-450,000*18.12-1,800,000-4,80 18.128

12960000
8154000
1800000
384000
720000
1902000 60% 1141200 4.755

(450,000*28,80-450,000*18.26-1,800,000-4,800,000*8%)*(1-40%
12960000
8217000
1800000
384000 2559000
60% 1535400 3.19875

10.54

Q - 1,800,000 - 4,800,000*8% - 7,200,000*10%)

1800000
384000
720000
2904000

- 1,800,000 - 4,800,000*8%)
384000
2184000

2*(10.54Q - 2,904,000) = (10.54Q - 2,184,000)

21.08 5808000
10.54 3624000
343833
Q*(28,80-22.66) = 1,560,000+4,800,000*8% = 1,896,000

6.14 384000 1944000

316612.4
Q*(28,80-18.26) = 1,800,000+4,800,000*8%+7,200,000*10%

384000 2184000
720000 355700.3
2904000
472964.2

(250,000*28,80-250,000*18.26-1,800,000-4,800,000*8%-7,200,

7200000
4565000
1800000
384000
720000 -269000 -161400 -0.6725
(250,000*28,80-250,000*18.26-1,800,000-4,800,000*8%)*(1-40%

7200000
4565000
1800000
384000 451000 270600 0.56375
 2.04

7,200,000*10%)

4Q - 2,184,000)
,800,000*8% = 1,896,000

,800,000*8%+7,200,000*10%

-1,800,000-4,800,000*8%-7,200,000*10%)*(1-40%)/240,000

1,800,000-4,800,000*8%)*(1-40%)/480,000