CSIRO PUBLISHING

International Journal of Wildland Fire 2008, 17, 724–741 www.publish.csiro.au/journals/ijwf

The historical range of variability of fires in the

Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region

Thomas T. VeblenA,E , Thomas KitzbergerB , Estela RaffaeleB ,

Mónica MermozC , Mauro E. GonzálezD , Jason S. SiboldA
and Andrés HolzA
A Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
B Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas de Argentina and
Laboratorio Ecotono (CONICET)-Universidad Nacional del Comahue,
Quintral 1250, Bariloche, 8400, Argentina.
CAdministración de Parques Nacionales, Vicealmirante O’Conner 1188, Bariloche,

8400, Argentina.
D Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Casilla 567, Chile.
E Corresponding author. Email: veblen@colorado.edu

Abstract. The present synthesis addresses key questions about several extreme fire events that occurred in the Nothofagus
forest region of southern Argentina and Chile in the late 1990s and early 2000s: (1) are there historical precedents for the
extent and severity of these recent wildfires? (2) To what extent can large, severe fires be attributed to influences from
modern humans, either indirectly through land-use practices or directly through ignition? (3) What are the relationships
of these fire events to interannual climatic variability and trends? (4) What are the medium-term ecological consequences
of these fire events, particularly in terms of the resiliency of the burned ecosystems? Historic fire regimes vary greatly
across the different ecosystem types in the southern Andean region, and the tree-ring record shows that before the 20th
century, large severe fires also played a significant ecological role in shaping even the wettest forests. Recent severe
droughts at an annual time scale have been facilitated by a trend towards higher temperatures since the mid-1970s. In large
parts of the region, the risk of wildfire ignition and spread has been exacerbated by increases in lightning associated with
higher temperatures, increased ignitions associated with exurban development, and conversion of less flammable native
vegetation to more flammable plantations of exotic conifers.

Additional keywords: Argentina, Chile, fire ecology, fire history.

Introduction A key element in examining the issues above, and in inform-

Reports of large wildfires in many parts of the world since the
early 1980s, including in temperate and tropical ecosystems,
have received substantial attention in the popular media and
contributed to a widespread view among resource managers and
ecological researchers that these large, severe fires are symp-
tomatic of fire regimes that have been altered either directly or
indirectly by modern humans (Myers 2006; Shlisky et al. 2007).
Public concern about large fire events in recent decades is driven
by the perception that recent wildfires in many regions have been
unusually extensive or burned with unusual severity due to either
land-use practices (e.g. fire suppression or logging) or climate
change. Initial steps to create a knowledge base for develop-
ing locally appropriate integrated fire management (as in Myers
2006) are to assess the ecological role of wildfire in the area
of interest and to determine if historical fire regimes have been
altered by land-use practices and climate change (Shlisky et al.
2007). Thus, our objective in the present review is to synthe-
sise existing research to assess the precedents and consequences
of extreme fire events in the Nothofagus forest region of the
southern Andes (south of ∼38◦ S).
ing fire policy discussions, is a sound understanding of the
historical range of variability of local fire regimes and associated
ecosystem conditions. In the modern paradigm of ‘ecosystem
management’(Christensen et al. 1996), the focus of management
is on sustaining ecosystems, while also sustaining yields of par-
ticular ecosystem products and services. For resource managers,
it is important to know the range of critical ecological processes
and conditions that have characterised particular ecosystems
over specified time periods and under varying degrees of human
influences. This range of critical processes and ecosystem condi-
tions has been termed natural range of variability or historical
range of variability (HRV). HRV is viewed as a coarse-filter
guide in ecosystem management because it identifies the pro-
cesses and conditions that in the recent past (i.e. the past several
centuries) have sustained ecosystem function, and helps man-
agers set limits to desired future conditions (Landres et al. 1999).
In the present synthesis, the concept of HRV is used to examine
the role played by fire historically and in modern times (i.e. after
1900) in shaping ecosystem structures in the Nothofagus forest
region of southern South America.

© IAWF 2008 10.1071/WF07152 1049-8001/08/060724

Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region
In the Nothofagus forest region of the mid-latitude southern
Andes, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, wildfires occurred
that were more extensive and more severe than any fires in
recent memory. For example, in Chile during the austral summer
(December–February) of 2001–2002 large, severe fires burned
in the region of Araucaria forests (∼38◦ to 39◦ 30 S) that were
believed to be the most extensive fires in this region for at
least the past 50 years (González and Veblen 2007). Likewise,
nearby in Argentina in the 710 000 ha Nahuel Huapi National
Park (NP) (∼40◦ S), more area burned in 1998–99 (14 399 ha)
than in any previous fire season in the 50-year documentary
record (Administración de Parques Nacionales 2006, unpubl.
data). Among resource managers and the general public in Chile
and Argentina, these extreme fire events triggered numerous
questions about the contributions of past land management and
global climate change to these fire events as well as about the
ecological consequences of these events.
The current paper addresses the following questions related
to the extreme wildfires of the late 1990s and early 2000s in
the Nothofagus forests of the southern Andean region. (1) Are
there historical precedents for the extent and severity of these
recent wildfires? (2) To what extent can large, severe fires
be attributed to direct influences from modern humans (e.g.
effects of fire suppression on fuel accumulation, increased
anthropogenic ignitions, or land-use practices such as livestock
production and plantation forestry)? (3) What are the relation-
ships of these fire events to climatic variability and trends?
(4) What are the medium-term (i.e. a few years to a few decades)
ecological consequences of these fire events, particularly in
terms of the resiliency of the burned ecosystems? We address
these questions for the two areas within the Nothofagus forest
region for which fire history and fire ecology have been most
thoroughly researched: (1) an extensive area in the Argentine
Lake District from ∼38◦ to 43◦ S encompassing wet Andean
forests eastwards to xeric woodlands, and (2) a smaller area of
Araucaria–Nothofagus forests at 38◦ to 39◦ 30 S in the Andes in
the Chilean region known as La Araucanía. We then place these
two case studies into broader context by briefly reviewing the
fragmentary evidence on potential influences of modern humans
and climate variation for the larger area of Nothofagus forests
extending from ∼38◦ to Tierra del Fuego at ∼55◦ S.
Climate and vegetation patterns
Climate
For the purpose of the present synthesis, the climate and vegeta-
tion patterns are briefly described for the mid-latitude (i.e. 38◦
to 43◦ S) and high-latitude (south of ∼44◦ S) Andean region (see
Veblen 2007 for greater detail). The dominant climate drivers of
the southern Andes are the persistent mid-latitude westerlies, the
seasonally shifting subtropical anticyclone of the south-eastern
Pacific region, and the topographic influences of the coastal
and Andean mountains (Garreaud and Aceituno 2007). Westerly
flowing air is orographically uplifted by the mountain barriers
to result in mean annual precipitations of 3000 to over 5000 mm
on the windward slopes of mountains from ∼37◦ S to Tierra
del Fuego (∼55◦ S) whereas precipitation steeply declines lee-
ward of the Andes. Along the west coast as far south as ∼42◦ S,
Mediterranean-type precipitation seasonality is associated with
Int. J. Wildland Fire 725
the summer influence of a subtropical high-pressure cell in the
south-eastern Pacific (Garreaud and Aceituno 2007). South-
wards of ∼47◦ S, the seasonal distribution of precipitation is
relatively uniform with stormy conditions prevailing year-round.
In the far south at ∼52◦ to 55◦ S, the influence of the circum-
Antarctic low pressure trough becomes more evident, and cool,
windy conditions prevail for most of the year.
Regional vegetation patterns
The Nothofagus forest region south of ∼37◦ 45 S includes
rainforests mostly west of the Andes as well as the cool tem-
perate Nothofagus forests and woodlands mostly east of the
Andes (Veblen et al. 1996). The Valdivian rainforest occurs
from ∼37◦ 45 to 43◦ 20 S, the North Patagonian rainforest
from ∼43◦ 20 to 47◦ 30 S, and the Magellanic rainforest south
of ∼47◦ 30 S (Fig. 1). The Valdivian rainforest district is char-
acterised mainly by evergreen broadleaved trees and evergreen
conifers (Table 1), but also includes the deciduous Nothofagus
obliqua and N. alpina (synonym = N. nervosa) in its northern,
drier extent. In contrast, the North Patagonian and Magellanic
rainforests are purely evergreen (mainly broadleaved trees with a
small conifer component). The giant evergreen conifer Fitzroya
cupressoides (Cupressaceae) occurs in both the southern part
of the Valdivian rainforest and the northern extent of the North
Patagonian rainforest. Another important evergreen conifer is
Pilgerodendron uviferum (Cupressaceae), which occurs from
39◦ 30 S in the Valdivian rainforest to 55◦ 30 S in Magellanic
rainforest and bogs on Tierra del Fuego. Common dominants of
the North Patagonian rainforests are the evergreen Nothofagus
(N. dombeyi, N. nitida, and N. betuloides), which typically occur
in stands associated with fewer than five or six other angiosperm
or conifer tree species. The most characteristic tree of the Mag-
ellanic rainforests is Nothofagus betuloides, which often forms
monotypic stands or co-occurs with just a few other tree species
(Table 1). The deciduous N. pumilio and N. antarctica also
occur within all three rainforest districts in areas transitional
to subalpine forests (N. pumilio) or on poorly drained sites
(N. antarctica). Bamboos (Chusquea spp.) typically dominate
the rainforest understoreys in the north but are absent south of
∼48◦ S. On the eastern side of the Andes, parallel to the strong
west-to-east decline in precipitation is a gradient from temperate
rainforests, through cool temperate Nothofagus forests and xeric
woodlands to the Patagonian steppe of bunchgrasses and shrubs
(Fig. 1). Cool temperate Nothofagus forests and woodlands occur
from ∼37◦ 30 S southwards to ∼55◦ S on Tierra del Fuego and
include subalpineAndean forests as well as drier forests eastward
in the rain shadow of the Andes (Veblen et al. 1996). In the north-
ern part of the extensive cool temperate Nothofagus forests, the
evergreen conifers Araucaria araucana (north of ∼40◦ 20 S) and
Austrocedrus chilensis (north of ∼44◦ S) occur along the mesic
forest to xeric woodland portion of this trans-Andean gradient
(Veblen et al. 1995).
South of ∼47◦ S, the strong west-to-east precipitation gradi-
ent is also strongly reflected by the vegetation gradient. The far
western district (west of the Magellanic rainforest) is known as
Magellanic moorland and is characterised by scattered Nothofa-
gus betuloides, bog, and ericaceous heath. East of the Magellanic
moorland, the west-to-east zonation of vegetation runs from
Magellanic forest dominated by N. betuloides through a broad
726 Int. J. Wildland Fire T. T. Veblen et al.

N
40°

200 km

Grasslands and scrub

Warm temperate deciduous

Nothofagus forest
PACIFIC Valdivian and North
Patagonian rainforest
Patagonian Nothofagus forests
45° Cool temperate Nothofagus
forest and woodland
Magellanic rainforest

Magellanic moorland

Andean tundra

OCEAN Glacier

50°

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

55° 75° 70° 60°

80° 65° 55°

Fig. 1. Major vegetation zones of southern South America.

zone of deciduous Nothofagus forests most typically dominated
by N. pumilio, and then the extensive Patagonian steppe domi-
nated by bunchgrasses and small shrubs (Fig. 1).At high latitudes
conifers are absent from the xeric eastern habitats near the steppe
ecotone.
Fire in the Argentine Lake District (∼38–43◦ S)
What are the historical precedents of the recent
large, severe fire events?
We focus on the Argentine Lake District (∼38–43◦ S) because
it has been the most thoroughly studied region in relation to the
four questions addressed in the present synthesis. According to
NP records covering most of the Andean area of these latitudes,
human-set and lightning-ignited fires burned similar-sized areas
from 1938 to 2005 (Administración de Parques Nacionales 2006,
unpubl. data). Nevertheless, there is a high degree of interannual
variation in the presence of lightning storms, and in most years no
lightning-ignited fires are recorded. In the large Nahuel Huapi
NP that covers ∼710 000 ha from ∼40◦ 10 to 41◦ 35 S, more
area burned in the years 1996 and 1999 (11 252 and 14 399 ha
respectively) than in all the other years combined since the Park’s
records began in 1938 (Fig. 2). In adjacent Lanín NP, covering
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region Int. J. Wildland Fire 727

Table 1. Common tree species of the major forest zones of southern Chile and south-western Argentina
Deciduous broadleaved species are indicated by a superscript H and evergreen conifers by a superscript hash (#).
All others are evergreen broadleaved trees

Valdivian North Patagonian Magellanic Cool temperate Nothofagus

rainforest rainforest rainforest forests and woodlands

Nothofagus alpinaH
Nothofagus obliquaH
Laurelia sempervirens
Amomyrtus meli
Crinodendron hookerianum
Eucryphia cordifolia
Persea lingue
Aextoxicon punctatum
Gevuina avellana
Fitzroya cupressoides#
Luma apiculata
Podocarpus saligna#
Nothofagus nitida
Laureliopsis philippiana
Amomyrtus luma
Pseudopanax laetevirens
Chusquea bamboos
Caldcluvia paniculata
Saxegothaea conspicua#
Weinmannia trichosperma
Nothofagus dombeyi
Podocarpus nubigena#
Maytenus magellanica
Drimys winteri
Pilgerodendron uviferum#
Embothrium coccineum
Nothofagus betuloides
Nothofagus antarcticaH
Nothofagus pumilioH
Araucaria araucana#
Austrocedrus chilensis#
Lomatia hirsuta
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X
X X X
X X
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X X X X
X
X
X

412 000 ha from ∼39◦ 10 to 40◦ 10 S, the 1980s and 1990s had
twice as many years of significant area burned (i.e. >0.01% of
the Park’s total area) as in the previous 20 years, but there is no
trend towards an increase in total area burned (Fig. 2). When
all four NPs in the Argentine Lake District are considered, there
does not appear to be a trend towards increasing area burned
since the records began in the late 1930s. For example, in Los
Alerces NP (263 000 ha; 42◦ 34 to 43◦ 20 S) and the small Lago
Puelo NP (27 674 ha; 42◦ 06 to 42◦ 16 S), the peak year of surface
area burned was 1944 when 13.7 and 30.7%, respectively, of
each park burned (Fig. 2). However, interpreting the NP records
is complicated by the fact that fire suppression activities have
been better supported inside than outside the NPs (i.e. on private
property and properties of the provinces), which may be reflected
in greater areas burned in areas adjacent to NPs in some recent
fire events. For example, in three large fire events that occurred
in 1987, 1996, and 2001 in the area of Lago Puelo NP, a total area
of 13 111 ha burned but only 12% of the burned area was within
NP boundaries (Administración de Parques Nacionales 2006,
unpubl. data). Owing to the absence of long-term fire records for
administrative units outside of NPs, it is not possible to determine
if trends or lack of trends in NP records are representative of
patterns for the larger region.
Nevertheless, qualitative historical observations of years of
exceptionally large fire events are helpful in placing the 1996 and
1999 fire events into a broader regional perspective. Extensive
fires in the early 1940s in the Andean area of the provinces of
Neuquén, Rio Negro and Chubut from ∼36◦ to 46◦ S motivated
an extensive report on the extent, causes and consequences of
those fires commissioned by the Argentine Ministry of Agri-
culture and executed by Tortorelli (1947). Tortorelli (1947)
estimated that 275 000 ha burned in 1943–44 in the province
of Chubut primarily in areas outside of NPs. Likewise, he docu-
mented extensive fires in the northern part of Neuquén, north of
Lanín NP, in 1943 (Tortorelli 1947). In earlier resource surveys
conducted in 1912–15 covering the Andean area from ∼39◦ to
44◦ S, large areas were mapped as ‘recently burned’(Willis 1914;
Rothkugel 1916). For example, in a survey covering 137 760 ha
of tall forest and 33 080 ha of Nothofagus antarctica shrubland in
the southern part of what is today Nahuel Huapi NP, Willis (1914)
728 Int. J. Wildland Fire
2
Percentage of park surface burned
1
30
20
10
0
15
12
0
1940
Fig. 2. Area burned per year as percentages of total areas of four national parks in the Argentine Lake District.Years
listed indicate the year of January in periods from October to March (spring to summer). Data from Administración
de Parques Nacionales, Bariloche, Argentina, 2006.
mapped 52 060 ha (23%) as ‘recently burned’. According to
reports of scientific explorers, these fires occurred mostly in
the 1890s-to-1914 period that coincided with intentional burn-
ing by Euro-American settlers as well as drought (Moreno 1897;
Steffen 1909; Willis 1914; Rothkugel 1916). For the Provinces
of Neuquén, Rio Negro and Chubut, Rothkugel (1916) mapped
692 000 ha (37% of the total forest area) as having burned during
the European settlement period from the 1890s to 1914. Despite
the lack of continuous record-keeping of areas burned in the Lake
District, these fragmentary observations indicate that the large
fire events of the late 1990s to early 2000s were not more extreme
than events recorded in the early 1940s and 1890s–1910s.
Tree-ring records from northern Patagonia clearly document
years of synchronous and widespread fires numerous times both
during the late 19th century period of European colonization
as well as before permanent European settlement (Kitzberger
et al. 1997; Veblen et al. 1999). For example, of 41 fire his-
tory sample sites extending from 39◦ to 43◦ S, 61% recorded
fire in 1827 and 52% in 1897 (Veblen et al. 1999). As dis-
cussed below, these years of widespread fire coincided with
exceptional droughts, but the temporal and spatial pattern of all
T. T. Veblen et al.
Lanín NP
(412 000 ha)
Nahuel Huapi NP
(710 000 ha)
Lago Puelo NP
(27 674 ha)
Los Alerces NP
(263 000 ha)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
fires, including small fires that did not spread greatly, presum-
ably owing to less extreme drought, imply that Native Americans
significantly influenced fire frequency, especially in the ecotone
between the steppe and Austrocedrus woodlands. For example,
areas described by 19th-century explorers as important Native
American hunting grounds recorded more fires during the mid-
19th century than ecologically similar areas less frequented by
hunters (Veblen et al. 1999). Fire spread in these relatively dry
habitats of steppe andAustrocedrus woodland is not as dependent
on exceptional drought as fire spread is in the western rainforests
where human-set fires can spread only under extreme drought
conditions.
Qualitative historical descriptions from the 18th and 19th
centuries as well as historical photographs from the late 19th
and early 20th centuries indicate that extensive, severe fires
occurred in all the woodland and forest types (Veblen et al.
2003). Even in the wettest forests of the region, 18th and 19th
century explorers reported seeing large areas of burned forest.
In crossing the Andes from west to east in 1787 via the famed
camino de Vuriloche south-west of Lake Nahuel Huapi, Padre
Francisco Menéndez mentions seeing extensive burns, including
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region
one so large that ‘. . .it extends as far as one could see. . .’ (Fonck
1896). In 1856, the explorers Francisco Fonck and Fernando
Hess retraced this portion of the route travelled by Menéndez
and reported seeing large burns in the same area and also at
Lago Moreno (on the south side of Lake Nahuel Huapi) and Lago
Gutiérrez (Fonck 1900). For the region from Lake Nahuel Huapi
southwards to Rio Puelo (42◦ S) and Rio Palena (43◦ 40 S), Fonck
and other explorers observed extensive fires in the mesic forests
that are described (Fonck 1896, pp. 74–75) as: ‘The phenomenon
[fires] is notable due to its almost general character and for
having such vast proportions . . .; the strong winds and relative
drought of the land and forest make these fires propagate with
great rapidity’. Tree-ring dating of fire scars further documents
the occurrence of numerous fires in the 18th to 19th century
and earlier from even the wettest forests containing Fitzroya
cupressoides at ∼41◦ to 42◦ S (Veblen et al. 1999). Likewise,
at millennial time scales, there is abundant sedimentary char-
coal evidence of past burning across the full range of ecosystem
types throughout the Holocene in the area from 41◦ to 42◦ 30 S
(Whitlock et al. 2006). Most sites show increases in charcoal
coinciding with European settlement or the spread of livestock
into the region during the 17th to 19th centuries (Whitlock et al.
2006).
Overall, Argentine NP records beginning in 1938 as well as
qualitative historical observations from the 18th and 19th cen-
turies corroborated by tree-ring dating of past fires indicate that
the extent of the fires of the late 1990s to early 2000s are not
without precedent at time scales of the past 60 years as well as
during the past several centuries. Quantitatively precise compar-
isons are not feasible, but multiple sources of evidence imply
that in the Argentine Lake District, episodes of burning similar
or greater in both spatial extent and range of forest types affected
as in the 1990s–2000s occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries
as well as in the 1890s–1910s and early 1940s.
How have modern land-use practices contributed to
recent fire events?
The fire suppression–fuels accumulation model
In various parts of the world, historical fire regimes (either
natural or affected by aboriginal populations) of some semi-
arid ecosystems were characterised by relatively frequent low-
severity fires before the effects of modern fire suppression or
fuels reduction through livestock grazing. For some of these
ecosystems, there is evidence that following a reduction in the
frequency of low-severity grass fires due either to livestock
grazing or modern fire suppression, accumulations of woody
fuels have created the potential for high-severity crown fires
(Covington and Moore 1994; Schoennagel et al. 2004; Bond
et al. 2005). To what extent could fire suppression and fuels
accumulation contribute to the large, severe fires of the late
1990s–2000s in the Argentine Lake District?
The fire suppression–fuels buildup model is not applicable to
the wet Nothofagus-dominated forests (i.e. >2000 mm annual
precipitation), where fire spread is clearly not limited by lack
of woody fuels. Nor is there clear evidence that suppression has
significantly altered the historical fire regime, which consisted of
relatively long intervals (usually a century or more) between fires
that were associated with extreme drought and ignited either by
Int. J. Wildland Fire 729
lightning or humans (Veblen et al. 1999; Kitzberger and Veblen
2003). The wet Nothofagus forests are located in areas of difficult
access where before the use of aerial fire suppression tactics in
the 1980s (which still are quite limited), the infrastructure for
combating fires was not effective.
In the tall shrublands dominated by Nothofagus antarctica,
the bamboo Chusquea culeou and numerous tall shrub species
(e.g. Schinus, Embothrium, Lomatia), transition of a surface fire
into a crown fire is not limited by insufficient quantity or verti-
cal continuity of woody fuels. All the dominant woody species
of this ecosystem type resprout quickly after fire. After fewer
than 5 years, there is sufficient fuel, including live and dead
foliage and small twigs, near the ground surface to allow sur-
face fires to become intense crown fires, given appropriate fire
weather.The effectiveness of the fire suppression policy since the
1930s is difficult to assess because the crown fires typical of this
ecosystem type destroy most tree-ring evidence of the pre-1930s
fire regime. However, even if fire frequency is assumed to have
declined in this ecosystem type during the last ∼60 years of fire
suppression policy, the result would not have been a shift from
surface to crown fire, given the rapid recovery of woody fuels
due to the resprouting of the dominant shrubs. Rather, fire exclu-
sion over decades leading to continued accumulation of highly
flammable live and dead fuels may be expected to result in more
intense crown fires affecting larger areas. Thus, at a landscape
scale, if fire exclusion leads to greater fuel accumulation in tall
shrublands, it is logical to predict greater potential for fire spread
to other vegetation types such as the higher-elevation subalpine
forests. However, more research is required to determine the
ecological consequences, especially at a landscape scale, of fire
suppression policy of the past ∼60 years in these tall shrublands.
In contrast, for xeric Austrocedrus woodlands at the ecotone
where the dominant fuels are bunchgrasses and small shrubs, the
fire suppression–fuels accumulation model applies. The history
of changes in fire frequency and fire severity in Austrocedrus
woodlands fits a globally common pattern for semi-arid areas
where grass fuels and low-severity surface fires formerly pre-
dominated but under many decades of fire exclusion and grazing
by livestock, woody fuels accumulate sufficiently to create the
potential of intense crown fires (Bond et al. 2005). The Austroce-
drus woodland is the only ecosystem type in the Argentine Lake
District that formerly had a fire regime of relatively frequent but
low-severity fires (Kitzberger et al. 1997; Veblen et al. 1999).
Fire occurrence and spread also are limited by availability of
fine fuels as indicated by the lack of spread of modern fires into
areas with patchy, discontinuous grass fuels, and by increases in
fire extent one to a few years following periods of above-average
moisture that favour production of fine fuels (Kitzberger et al.
1997; Veblen et al. 1999).
The tree-ring record of fire in Austrocedrus woodlands near
the steppe ecotone shows a marked reduction in fire occurrence
after ∼1900 (Fig. 3). Survival of the fire-recording trees as well
as eye-witness accounts from the 19th century indicate that pre-
vious fires were low-severity fires that mainly burned grass and
small shrub fuels (Cox 1863; Musters 1871). Fire frequencies
declined dramatically at these sites after ∼1900 due to a combi-
nation of factors: (1) fewer fires were set by the Native American
population that declined dramatically around ∼1900; (2) growth
of the livestock population reduced the quantity of grass fuels;
730 Int. J. Wildland Fire
1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700
Year
Fig. 3. Composite fire scar records indicating years in which at least 10% of the recorder trees (minimum two scars) recorded fire
at sample sites in Austrocedrus woodlands in the Argentine Lake District. Each horizontal line represents a different site indicated by
the codes to the right, for which dates of fire scars are indicated by short vertical lines. Sites are arranged from north to south, and
site codes are defined in Veblen et al. (1999).
and (3) fires were actively suppressed, especially after the 1940s
(Veblen et al. 2003). The decline in fire frequency coincides
with a substantial increase in the density of woody vegetation in
this ecosystem (Fig. 4), which mainly reflects enhanced juvenile
tree survival permitted by longer fire-free intervals (Veblen and
Lorenz 1988). However, livestock-induced releases from com-
petition from grasses or exposure of bare mineral soil as well
as episodes of climate favourable for tree establishment also
contributed to the sometimes dramatic increase in densities of
Austrocedrus woodlands (Villalba and Veblen 1997; Kitzberger
et al. 2000).
Repeated historical photographs show that by the late 20th
century, there were extensive areas of relatively dense Austroce-
drus stands that could support crown fires where 80 to 100 years
earlier the fuels would support only low-severity surface fires
(Fig. 4). In these areas of formerly open vegetation types near
the ecotone with the steppe, woody encroachment during the fire
suppression period appears to have greatly elevated the risk of
crown fires. However, during the record fire season of 1998–99 in
Nahuel Huapi NP, these Austrocedrus woodlands accounted for
a relatively small proportion of the area burned relative to more
mesic forest types (J. Salguero et al., unpubl. data). Although
woody encroachment associated with fire suppression and other
factors near the steppe ecotone have increased woody fuel loads
over an extensive area, a much larger area does not fit the sce-
nario under which fire suppression would have resulted in an
increase in woody fuels.
Effects of other land uses and anthropogenic ignitions
Although the fire events of the late 1990s and early 2000s
in the Argentine Lake District are not unprecedented and are
strongly linked to climatic variation (see below), several aspects
of modern land-use appear to be creating either increased hazard
T. T. Veblen et al.
RAHUE
HUECHU
SN PED
COLLUN
TROMPH
CALEUF
E TRAF
N LIM1
N LIM2
S LIM
E LIM
HUALA
C VIRG
EPUYEN
L RIVA
R GRAN
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
of fire spread or increased probability of ignition. Livestock
populations in the steppe and ecotone with Austrocedrus wood-
lands peaked in the early to mid-20th century, and have declined
sharply, especially since the early 1990s in the NPs (Veblen et al.
2003). Reduction of livestock in turn would have resulted in
increased accumulation of grass fuels in the steppe–woodland
ecotone, which has created a greater potential for fire spread.
Livestock populations have also been reduced in forested areas
within the NPs, favouring the development of taller and denser
understoreys of palatable shrubs and bamboos (Veblen et al.
1992; Blackhall et al. 2008) in Nothofagus stands that in some
cases formerly had sparse, open understoreys. Thus, reduction
of livestock use has increased availability of understorey fuels
in some forest types, potentially raising the probability of sur-
face fires transitioning into crown fires. However, in the mesic
Nothofagus forests, these changes in fuel type and fuel amount
are likely to have less influence on the chance of surface fires
becoming crown fires than would the occurrence of extreme
drought.
Since the early 1980s, large areas of the steppe and Aus-
trocedrus woodlands, both inside and outside of NPs, have
been afforested with introduced conifers, including ponderosa
pine (Pinus ponderosa), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), and
Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii). In northern Patagonia (i.e.
Neuquén, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces), the rate of estab-
lishment of plantation of fast-growing exotic conifers in the late
1990s was estimated at 1000 to 1500 ha per year, and it has
been suggested that there are 700 000 to 2 000 000 ha of land
(mostly at the ecotone with the steppe) that could be converted to
plantations (Schlichter and Laclau 1998). Ecotonal areas, where
formerly there was a mosaic of patches of shrubs and extensive
grasslands, have been converted to areas of continuous fuels of
flammable conifers. The fuel-defined hazard of crown fire in
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region Int. J. Wildland Fire 731

(a)

(b)

Fig. 4. Matched historical and modern photographs at the steppe and Austrocedrus woodland ecotone in Nahuel Huapi
NP in (a) 1896 and (b) 1985. Woody encroachment into the bunchgrass- and small shrub-dominated steppe has been
by the native conifer Austrocedrus chilensis and small trees and shrubs Schinus patagonicus and Discaria articulata.
Photographs: F. P. Moreno 1896 and T. T. Veblen 1985.

these plantations is high, and in the recent fires in Nahuel Huapi
NP, conifer plantations were among the vegetation types that
burned (J. Salguero et al., unpubl. data). Given that international
trading of global carbon credits is likely to promote more conifer
plantations in the region (Sedjo 1999), this source of increased
hazard of crown fire is likely to increase.
The other important change in land use in northern Patagonia
contributing to increased fire risk is rapid exurban development
and associated recreational activities. Many areas that were
formerly lightly settled, again especially near the steppe and
woodland ecotone, have experienced dramatic residential growth
related both to international and national trends. The sharp
increase in the permanent and transient population of exurban
areas both within parks (but limited to multiple-use zones) and
adjacent to the parks raises the question of the relative impor-
tance of human-set fires v. natural ignitions from lightning. In
732 Int. J. Wildland Fire T. T. Veblen et al.

Bariloche

2 Spring (Oct.–Dec.) temperature

⫺2
Departures (SD) from the mean

4 Spring (Oct.–Dec.) precipitation

⫺2
⫺1.5
Spring (Oct.–Dec.) aridity index

⫺1.2

⫺0.9

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Fig. 5. Spring temperature, precipitation, and aridity index departures (standard deviations) from
mean monthly values for the Bariloche climate station. The curve in the upper two panels is an
11-year moving average of the respective value. The aridity index (plotted inversely) is P/(T + 10),
where P is mean spring precipitation in mm and T is mean spring temperature in (◦ C) (De Martonne
1926). The dots indicate the record fire seasons of 1995–96 and 1998–99.

the case of the record fire seasons of 1995–96 and 1998–99
in Nahuel Huapi NP, the origins of 22 fires that accounted for
48% of the total of 25 651 ha burned could be determined with
certainty (Administración de Parques Nacionales 2006, unpubl.
data); 77% of the fires of known origin were human-set and
burned 33% of the area burned by fires of known origin. Over
the 1938–2005 record of fires in Nahuel Huapi NP, of fires
of known origin (64%), human ignitions account for 56% of
the area burned (Administración de Parques Nacionales 2006,
unpubl. data). Over the period from 1985 to 1999, the area burned
within 10 km of the major regional urban centre (Bariloche) was
3.5 times greater than the area expected to burn based on the area
that burned in the same vegetation types over a total study area
of 780 000 ha (Mermoz et al. 2005). As exurban development
continues at several foci in the region, patterns of increased fire
occurrence similar to that documented for the Bariloche area are
likely to be more widespread.
Although residential development is greatest towards the
steppe–woodland ecotone, mesic and wet forests have also
experienced increased use both for residence and for recre-
ation especially since the early 1990s. Recent development has
occurred in mesic Nothofagus forests that were burned during
the late 19th–early 20th century (Veblen et al. 2003). Burn-
ing of these tall forests converted them to either much shorter
secondary forests of the same species or in some instances to
tall shrublands; in both cases, the result is a transformation of
relatively fire-resistant tall forests to structural types that have
greater vertical fuel continuity and increased fire hazard as deter-
mined by the fuels complex. Today, these areas are subjected
to increased chance of fire ignition because of greater human
presence.
What are the relationships of recent fire events
to climatic variability and trends?
The 1998–99 fire season (December through March), which was
the peak year in area burned in Nahuel Huapi NP, followed the
driest calendar year (1998) and the warmest spring (October–
November 1998) in the ∼90-year instrumental climate record of
Bariloche, located at the south-east edge of the Park (Fig. 5). The
1996 fire season, the second-ranked year of widespread burn-
ing, also followed one of the driest springs on record (Fig. 5),
and the mean temperature of December was the warmest on
record. Interannual variability in winter–spring precipitation and
summer temperatures has been shown to strongly influence fire
occurrence in theArgentine Lake District (Kitzberger et al. 1997;
Veblen et al. 2003).Although the drought conditions at a seasonal
and annual scale were extreme in 1995–96 and 1998–99 relative
to the 20th century instrumental record, a 1599–1988 tree-ring
reconstruction of precipitation based on Austrocedrus sampled
throughout the Argentine Lake District indicates numerous dry
years over the past several centuries associated with widespread
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region Int. J. Wildland Fire 733

fires (Villalba et al. 1998; Veblen et al. 1999). A direct quantita- 15

tive comparison of the pre-20th century drought years with the

(11-year moving average)

drought of 1998–99 is not feasible, but it is likely that at an annual

Summer temperature
scale, some of the droughts associated with widespread fire in
14
the previous two centuries were similar in severity to those of the
late 1990s. Although years of severe drought and widespread fire
similar to those of the 1990s are not unprecedented, the current
warming trend (especially since the mid-1970s; Villalba et al. 13
2003) leads to the possibility that the combination of natural
variability in rainfall with unprecedented warm summers is cre-
ating conditions favourable to widespread fire more frequently
than in the past several centuries. 12
Analyses of fire–climate relationships based on tree-ring 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
reconstructions for the period 1740–1995 indicate the primacy
of interannual variability over multidecadal-scale climatic influ-
ences on fire occurrence in the Argentine Lake District (Veblen 60

(11-year moving average)

et al. 1999). Thus, effects of decadal-scale climatic trends on the
fire regime may be difficult to detect because years of widespread
fire may often be associated with only 1 or 2 years of extreme cli-
mate within a decade. Nevertheless, climate trends over the last
several decades of the 20th century appear to be more conducive
to widespread fire in the Argentine Lake District. At a decadal
scale, since 1976, spring (October–December) precipitation has
been below average and temperature has been above average
at the Bariloche climate station (Fig. 5). The shift towards
warmer temperatures in the Argentine Lake District is also
reflected by increased tree growth at subalpine sites in the region
(Villalba et al. 1997; Daniels and Veblen 2004). Annual varia-
tions in the regional climate and fire occurrence in the Argentine
Lake District are strongly associated with variations in El Niño–
Southern Oscillations (ENSO) (Kitzberger et al. 1997; Veblen
et al. 1999; Kitzberger and Veblen 2003). The post-1976 trend
towards warmer temperatures in the Argentine Lake District is
a hemispheric trend linked to warmer sea-surface temperatures
in the Pacific and Atlantic and to more frequent strong to very
strong El Niño events since 1976 (Daniels and Veblen 2001;
Giese et al. 2002; Villalba et al. 2003).
The strong shift in temperature regime of the tropical Pacific
after 1976 is reflected in both warmer summers and increased
numbers of lightning-ignited fires in the Argentine Lake Dis-
trict (Fig. 6). In the four NPs in the Argentine Lake District, the
mean number of lightning-ignited fires shifted sharply from an
average of less than 10 to well over 25 after the late 1970s. The
increase in lightning ignitions is associated with greater con-
vective activity under the warmer conditions. Thus, the sharp
shift towards warmer and drier conditions since the late 1970s
in combination with increased lightning events appears to have
resulted in a qualitative shift towards increased fire risk. The
past record of fire implies that an increase in lightning can have
a major influence on fire occurrence. For example, over the
period from 1938 to 2005, lightning-ignited fires were recorded
in only 17 years, implying that in most years, fire occurrence is
at least partially limited by lack of lightning ignitions (Adminis-
tración de Parques Nacionales 2006, unpubl. data). The number
of lightning ignitions recorded since 1938 is strongly correlated
with warmer summer temperatures that are essential for allow-
ing fire spread in the wetter forest types (Kitzberger and Veblen
2003). Lightning is known to have ignited some of the largest
fires that have burned the usually fire-resistant wet Nothofagus
Number of lightning fires
40
20
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Fig. 6. Mean summer (December–March) temperature (◦ C) of the Bar-
iloche climate station and number of lightning-ignited fires in Lanín,
Nahuel Huapi, Lago Puelo, and Los Alerces National Parks. Data from
Administración de Parques Nacionales, Bariloche, Argentina, 2006.
forests in the western part of the region (Administración de Par-
ques Nacionales 2006, unpubl. data). Furthermore, the tree-ring
record of fire scars implies that some of the fires in the wettest
forests dominated by Fitzroya were ignited by lightning because
of the remote locations in areas unlikely to have been transited
by Native Americans (Veblen et al. 1999).
What are the medium-term ecological consequences
of recent fire events?
The ecological consequences of recent major fire events are site-
specific and highly contingent on the reproductive modes of
the dominant plant species, post-fire weather, and post-fire her-
bivory. Analyses of fire–vegetation relationships in a 780 000 ha
study area from 1985 to 1999 showed that shrublands, dom-
inated by Nothofagus antarctica and Chusquea bamboos and
other resprouters, are proportionally more affected by fire than
adjacent tall mesic forests (Mermoz et al. 2005). Tall shrublands
dominated mainly by N. antarctica and Chusquea bamboos show
a positive association with burnt areas over this large area, and
analyses at a fine spatial scale show that once shrubland patches
are ignited, they tend to burn completely until a topographic
break or a less-flammable vegetation type is encountered. In con-
trast, tall forests dominated by N. dombeyi or N. pumilio burn less
extensively than expected on the basis of the area occupied by
each forest type. Patches of the subalpine N. pumilio forests often
tend to serve as natural fire breaks, except under the most severe
734 Int. J. Wildland Fire
drought conditions, when they also burn (Mermoz et al. 2005).
This is consistent with matched historical (∼1900) and mod-
ern photographs showing sharp fire boundaries between burned
shrublands and unburnt forests (Veblen and Lorenz 1988). Sev-
eral factors may contribute to the higher flammability of the
shrublands (Veblen et al. 2003): (1) high density of multi-
stemmed small trees and shrubs; (2) rapid fuel recovery due
to resprouting; (3) heavy loads of flammable epiphytes (e.g.
Usnea lichens) and vines (e.g. Mutisia spp.) that provide fuel
ladders; (4) rapid accumulation of dead biomass from partial
crown dieback of the shrub and tree species, and from annual
foliage replacement of vines; (5) location on steep, north-facing
mid-slopes where fuels are prone to desiccation; and (6) domi-
nance of shrub species with high contents of volatile substances.
In contrast, tall Nothofagus forests have coarser, moister fuels,
and lack vertical continuity between the understorey and canopy.
The differential susceptibility of shrublands and mesic forests
to fire creates important feedbacks that facilitate long-term shifts
in the relative abundance of these landscape components. The
life history characteristics of the dominant tree and shrub species
and the effects of introduced herbivores in this landscape play
key roles in determining post-fire vegetation patterns. As a broad
generalisation, in the Argentine Lake District, vegetation types
characterised by resprouting tall shrubs and small trees have
expanded at the expense of tall tree species that are all obligate
seed reproducers. At many sites, in the long-term absence of
fire, these shrublands can be successionally replaced by forests,
and can be considered quickly recovering, fire-prone systems
(Veblen et al. 2003; Kitzberger et al. 2005a, 2005b). In con-
trast, the tall forests are dominated by tree species (mainly
Nothofagus dombeyi, N. pumilio, and Austrocedrus chilensis)
that depend exclusively on reproduction by seed, which is a
slower and less certain mechanism of post-fire recovery (Veblen
et al. 2003; Kitzberger et al. 2005a, 2005b). Under favourable
conditions of seed availability and post-fire weather, these obli-
gate seed reproducers form dense post-fire populations (Veblen
and Lorenz 1987; Villalba and Veblen 1997). However, their
regeneration may be slow or fail entirely owing to exception-
ally severe fires, fire-induced edaphic changes, lack of seed
sources, post-fire herbivory, or unfavourable weather (Veblen
et al. 2003; Kitzberger et al. 2005a; Tercero-Bucardo et al.
2007).
Post-fire herbivory can be particularly important to long-term
conversion of tall forests to shrublands because the resprout-
ing shrubs resist browsing better than the seed-producing tall
tree species (Raffaele and Veblen 1998, 2001; Kitzberger et al.
2005b). When fires are followed by intense herbivory from intro-
duced mammals, tall forests are converted to shrublands that
appear to be self-replacing because of the positive feedback
between fire and shrub cover. Thus, the tall forests are slowly
recovering, fire-sensitive systems. The more fire-prone shrub-
lands occur both in a zone of drier conditions and as patches
on edaphically unfavourable sites surrounded by mesic forests.
As the connectivity of shrublands increases throughout the land-
scape, the positive feedback on fire occurrence and spread is
expected to increase. Overall, under a continued trend towards
warmer and drier conditions, increased fire ignitions by humans
and by lightning are likely to result in relatively permanent
displacement of tall forest by shrublands due to the positive
T. T. Veblen et al.
feedback of shrubland fuels and fire, which is likely to be
exacerbated by livestock.
Fire in the Araucanía region of Chile (38◦ to 39◦ 30 S)
What are the historical precedents of the recent
large, severe fire events?
In Chile’s Araucanía (IXth Region; ∼37◦ 30 to 39◦ 30 S),
∼20 000 ha burned in December to March 2001–02. Thirty per
cent of the area burned was in the Araucaria–Nothofagus cover
type, and most of the burned area was within Chilean NPs
(González and Veblen 2007). One of the fires burned over 60%
of the total area of Tolhuaca NP (38◦ 10 S), which was created
primarily to protect Araucaria forests (González 2005). Given
the importance of Araucaria araucana as a national symbol of
Chilean conservation areas, the large, severe fires of 2001–02
triggered substantial public concern and raised questions about
appropriate policy and management responses (Echeverría 2002;
CONAF 2002). In addition, the fact that the most extensive fires
were ignited by lightning contradicted the widespread belief that
fires in the Araucaria–Nothofagus cover type of this region were
exclusively of human origin (CONAF 2002). Unaware of any
role for lightning-ignited fires in this forest type, resource man-
agers and others in the forestry industry initially blamed the
ignitions on the native Mapuche people (González 2005). Indeed,
the historical fire statistics reported by the Chilean Forest and
Park Service do not list lightning as a potential cause; instead,
all fires are assumed to be anthropogenic (CONAF 2002).
For the Araucanía region (IXth Region) as a whole, the area
burned in the 2001–02 fire season was a record since the begin-
ning of reliable record-keeping in 1971 but was not much greater
than the extent of burning in 1978–79 and 1987–88 (Fig. 7).
Although data on past fire extent by vegetation type are not avail-
able, the extent of burning in the Araucaria–Nothofagus cover
type was believed to be unprecedented over the previous 50 years
(CONAF 2002). For the period before the modern documentary
record of fires (i.e. before the 1970s), however, there is ample
evidence of widespread, severe fires in Araucaria–Nothofagus
forests in Chile and in the same forest type in adjacent areas
in Argentina. Sedimentary records of charcoal in conjunction
with fossil pollen document the presence of fire generally in
the northern Lake District to over 45 000 years before present
(BP) and commonly throughout the Holocene (Heusser 1994).
Specifically, for the modern Araucaria–Nothofagus forest type,
abundant charcoal dates from 3000 years BP from a site in
Argentina 50 km east of the Araucaria areas burned in Chile
in 2001–02 (Heusser et al. 1988). The extent and severity (i.e.
low-severity surface fires v. high-severity crown fires) cannot be
determined from these sedimentary charcoal records, but it is
clear that fire has long played an ecological role in Araucaria–
Nothofagus forests. Likewise, the origin of these fires – either
natural or human-set – cannot be determined from the charcoal
records, despite the assertion by Heusser (1994) that presence
of charcoal in fossil records from the Lake District could be
taken as evidence of paleo-human activity. Although infrequent
in theAraucaria–Nothofagus region of both Chile andArgentina,
lightning-ignited fires such as those of the 2001–02 fire season
do occur in this cover type.
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region Int. J. Wildland Fire 735

40 000
Region IX: Araucanía

20 000

0
40 000
Region X: Los Lagos

20 000
Hectares

Region XI: Aysén

20 000

0
20 000
Region XII: Magallanes

10 000

0
1970 1980 1990 2000
Year

Fig. 7. Area burned per year for the four administrative regions of southern Chile. Regions are:
Araucanía (IXth Region, ∼37◦ 30 to 39◦ 30 S); Los Lagos (Xth Region, ∼37◦ 30 to 39◦ 30 S); Aysén
(XIth Region, ∼43◦ 30 to 48◦ 40 S); and Magallanes (XIIth Region, ∼48◦ 40 to 55◦ S). Data from
Corporación Nacional Forestal, Santiago, Chile, 2006.

Even though it is not possible to determine the number of
prehistoric fires ignited by lightning v. Native Americans, it is
known that the native population of Pehuenche and Mapuche
used fire to hunt guanaco (Cox 1863; Musters 1871; Fonck 1896)
and to clear undergrowth to facilitate collection of Araucaria
seeds, one of their staple foods (Montaldo 1974; Aagesen 1998).
Although administrative control and permanent Chilean settle-
ment of the northern Lake District did not occur until ∼1883,
by the 17th century the indigenous population had adopted live-
stock introduced by the Spaniards (Bengoa 2000), which would
have motivated burning of vegetation to improve pasture. The
sharp increase in tree-ring evidence of fire in Tolhuaca NP
and Villarrica NP (39◦ 35 S) in the late 19th century implies
a substantial increase in burning associated with Euro-Chilean
settlement after ∼1883 (Fig. 8). Extensive intentional burning of
Araucaria–Nothofagus forests is reported in association with the
settlement of the region by Euro-Chileans in the 1880s (Elizalde
1958; Donoso and Lara 1996; Lara et al. 1996). Fire was a pre-
ferred tool for opening forest areas to create pasture areas. Fire
scars indicate relatively frequent fires through the 1950s, fol-
lowed by a decline in fires with the establishment of NPs in the
areas studied (Fig. 8).
Based on a fire history derived from tree rings inVillarrica NP,
the extent and severity of the 2002 fire event were not unique over
the past several centuries (González et al. 2005). High-severity
widespread events are indicated both by the locations of fire-
scarred remnant trees and post-fire cohorts for the years 1827,
1909, and 1944. Overall, the historic (i.e. pre-1900) fire regime
of this cover type appears to be a mixed-severity regime in which
both low-severity and less frequent high-severity fires occur.
Likewise, tree-ring data from the area burned in 2002 inTolhuaca
NP indicate there has been at least one other fire event (∼1762)
of comparable extent to the 2002 event (González 2005). In
general, the severe and widespread fires that burned Araucaria–
Nothofagus forests of this region in 2002 are within the range of
the historic fire regimes that have shaped this forested landscape.
How have modern land-use practices contributed to
recent fire events?
The fire suppression–fuels accumulation model
Given that the 2002 fires were mainly ignited by lightning
and that there were no recent forestry activities (either logging
or plantations of exotic conifers) in the NPs burned, the only rel-
evant land-use hypothesis to consider is that fire suppression or
release from livestock grazing significantly increased fuel quan-
tities during the late 20th century. Since infrequent, severe fires
736 Int. J. Wildland Fire
Araucaria
1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Fig. 8. Composite fire-scar records for Araucaria forests in Tolhuaca and Villarrica National Parks. Fire dates before 1650 are not
included. Dates of fire scars are indicated by short vertical lines. After: González and Veblen (2007).
before the 1950s played a key role in shaping the Araucaria–
Nothofagus forest structures (González et al. 2005), it is unlikely
that fire suppression practised mostly since the 1960s has signifi-
cantly altered the natural pattern of fuel accumulation. Fire scars
and stand age data indicate that in the Villarrica NP area, most
Araucaria stands originated after a relatively few widespread
high-severity fire events (González et al. 2005).
The area affected by the 2001–02 fires consisted of a mosaic
of tall forest of Araucaria–Nothofagus forests, Nothofagus
antarctica shrublands, and grasslands. Although it is plausible
that heavy grazing by livestock at one time could have reduced
fuels and affected fire behaviour, any effects of release of fuels
from grazing pressure on fire behaviour in 2001–02 appears
minor compared with the effects of climatic variability (dis-
cussed below). It is unlikely that any increase in grass fuels
associated with removal of livestock in NPs and reduction in
grazing since the 1960s had a major influence on fire extent or
severity in 2001–02. In fact, tree-ring evidence indicates that
relatively widespread and high-severity fires occurred in 1909
and 1944 in the Araucaria area of Villarrica NP when the area
was heavily utilised by livestock (González et al. 2005).
What are the relationships of recent fire events
to climatic variability and trends?
Drought was clearly the primary factor responsible for the extent
and severity of the 2001–02 fire events. Based on the nearest
long-term climate station, which is Temuco, located ∼100 km to
the south-west of the area burned, the 2001–02 fire season was
preceded by 4 consecutive years of spring (October–December)
drought (Fig. 9). Two of those previous springs (1998 and
1999) were the third and second driest springs, respectively, in
the 1963–2006 record. December of the 2001–02 fire season
recorded the third highest mean temperature and third lowest
precipitation for December in the 1963–2006 record. Four suc-
cessive years of drought may have had a cumulative effect on
T. T. Veblen et al.
Tolhuaca
Villarrica
moisture content of coarse woody fuels, and dry conditions in
December 2001 clearly predisposed the vegetation to burning
during the lightning storms of 2002.
Tree-ring fire dates from Araucaria–Nothofagus forests in
Villarrica NP and regional climate records from the coast of
Chile to the eastern foothills of the Andes in Argentina have
been used to characterise the association of fire with climatic
variability over the period 1899 to 1997 (González and Veblen
2006). Over this period, fire years were associated with above-
average temperatures of the same fire year, and with a tendency
towards below-average spring–summer precipitation for fire sea-
son and the 2 preceding years (González and Veblen 2006). At
the spatial scale of the entire Araucanía region, 1987, the year of
second most extensive burning, is also associated with protracted
drought from 1980 through 1985 (Fig. 9).
Based on fire history from 1690 to 2000 in Araucaria–
Nothofagus forests in Villarrica NP and a tree-ring proxy record
of spring–summer moisture availability, years of widespread
fire are associated with low moisture availability resulting
from a combination of above-average temperature and below-
average precipitation in late spring–summer (González and
Veblen 2006). Analogous to the pattern described for the Argen-
tine Lake District, Pacific sea surface temperatures as manifested
by variations in ENSO are important in promoting these warm,
dry conditions and associated fire. Years of high fire activity
coincide with warm and dry summers following El Niño events
(González and Veblen 2006). The time of transition from a La
Niña event to an El Niño event is favourable for fire because of
the dry winter–spring conditions associated with the former and
the warm summers associated with the latter (Montecinos and
Aceituno 2003). Similar to the pattern for the Argentine Lake
District, the strong connection of years of widespread fire in
the Chilean Araucanía region to variations in Pacific sea-surface
temperatures implies that fire in this region will be affected by
future hemispheric-scale trends in temperature.
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region Int. J. Wildland Fire 737

Temuco

2 Spring (Oct.–Dec.) temperature

1
0
⫺1
⫺2
Departures (SD) from the mean

3
Spring (Oct.–Dec.) precipitation
2
1
0
⫺1
⫺2

⫺1.0 Spring (Oct.–Dec.) aridity index

⫺0.5

0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year

Fig. 9. Spring temperature, precipitation, and aridity index departures (standard deviations) from
mean values for the Temuco climate station. The curve in the upper two panels is an 11-year moving
average of the respective value. The aridity index (plotted inversely) is De Martonne’s (1926). The dot
indicates the record fire season of 2001–02 in the Araucanía region of Chile.

What are the medium-term ecological consequences
of these fire events?
As a species, Araucaria araucana can both resist damage from
fire and recover after being severely burned. Mature trees have
thick bark that protects them from surface fires, and a crown
shape, which places foliage out of reach of surface fires (Veblen
et al. 1995). Also, they possess basal epicormic buds that may
sprout after fire, and protected terminal buds on branches allow-
ing continued growth after crown fire (Tortorelli 1947; Montaldo
1974; Veblen et al. 1995). Seedlings produce long tap roots that
may be five to six times as long as the shoot, and lateral root
length in mature trees can be as great as 30 m (Veblen et al.
1995). Araucaria araucana can occasionally reproduce asexu-
ally by root suckering (Veblen et al. 1995). By these means,
mature A. araucana frequently survive fire, although small indi-
viduals typically do not (Veblen et al. 1995; González et al. 2005;
Peñaloza 2006). Where severe fires kill most trees in an Arau-
caria stand, they commonly regenerate along with Nothofagus
species as long as seed sources are present (Veblen et al. 1995;
González et al. 2005).
Three years after the severe fire in February 2002 in the
Araucaria–Nothofagus forest of Tohuaca NP, post-fire vegeta-
tion was sampled in a severely and a moderately burned site
(González and Veblen 2007). At the severely burned sites, 100%
of the canopy trees of both Araucaria and Nothofagus spp. were
dead, and at the sites of moderate burn severity, high percent-
ages (e.g. 30 to over 50%) were alive and in many cases showed
no visible signs of fire damage in the crown (González and
Veblen 2007). Within a period of 3 years, these sites showed
substantial recovery of vegetation in terms of plant cover and
species richness by means of new establishment from seed and
vegetative reproduction from rhizomes, roots, bulbs and other
subterranean organs.The bamboo Chusquea culeou was the most
dominant species, but all the dominant tree species (A. arau-
cana, N. dombeyi, N. pumilio, and N. nervosa) were also present
as seedlings. Overall, initial data collection and observations 3
to 5 years following the 2002 Tolhuaca fire indicates post-fire
recovery to forest conditions similar to those that existed pre-fire
(González and Veblen 2007). Potentially significant to the initial
establishment of tree seedlings of the dominant tree species is
the fact that during the 2 years following the fire, spring moisture
condition was not below average (Fig. 9).
Fire in other areas of Nothofagus forests
in the southern Andean region
The two case studies presented above are the only areas for which
existing knowledge of fire history and fire ecology is sufficient
to address the four central questions of the present synthesis.
Although less complete, preliminary research from other areas
738 Int. J. Wildland Fire T. T. Veblen et al.

in the Nothofagus region of southern South America will be fuel quantity does not limit fire ignition or spread; exceptional
briefly presented in this section. drought is the main limitation to fire occurrence in these usu-
ally wet forests. The fire suppression–fuels buildup hypothesis
Were the areas burned in the late 1990s–2000s is more plausible in xeric Nothofagus woodlands and steppe that
unusually large? are widespread in the eastern Aysén and Magallanes Districts,
where it is likely that low-severity surface fires played some role
Over the period from 1971 through 2005, the 40 722 ha burned in
in shaping these ecosystems. However, the historic frequency of
the Los Lagos region of Chile (Xth Region; ∼37◦ 30 to 43◦ 30 S)
fire (i.e. pre-1950s) in these ecosystems is not known, and the
in the 1997–98 season is many times greater than the average
effectiveness of modern fire suppression dating in most areas
and more than 65% greater than any other year of widespread
from the 1960s–70s is not known.
fire (Fig. 7). The same year was also the peak in area burned
A land-use that is more likely altering the potential for fire
for the Aysén District (∼43◦ 30 to 48◦ 40 S) since 1971. In the
spread is the widespread planting of exotic trees. Throughout
Magallanes region (XIIth Region; ∼48◦ 40 to 55◦ S), the 2004–
the IXth and Xth Regions of Chile, large percentages of native
05 season was a near-record year exceeded only by the 1985–86
forests and agricultural lands were converted to plantations of
fire season. Even though single-year records or near records
exotic conifers (especially Pinus radiata) since the 1970s (Lara
for area burned occurred in the late 1990s to 2005 in all four
et al. 1996). Likewise, in the XIth and XIIth Regions, vast areas
administrative regions, this time period does not stand out as a
of steppe and sites formerly occupied by Nothofagus pumilio
time of unusually widespread burning in comparison with the
forests have been planted with exotic pines such as P. ponderosa
previous three decades (Fig. 7).
(Lara et al. 1996; Donoso and Lara 1996). Conversion of native
Qualitative descriptions of earlier episodes of widespread
Nothofagus forests and grass-dominated steppe to homoge-
burning especially in the 1940s and late-1800s to early 1900s
neous plantations of highly flammable conifers has substantially
in all four of the Chilean regions also suggest that the areas
increased the risk of large, crown fires in these regions.
burned since the mid-1990s are not unusually large in com-
Exurban development is occurring in southern Chile, espe-
parison with the previous 100 to 150 years (Elizalde 1958;
cially in the Los Lagos and Araucanía regions where vacation
Pérez 1958; Donoso and Lara 1996). Furthermore, sedimentary
homes and resorts have grown spectacularly since the early
records of charcoal document at least low levels of charcoal in
1990s. Likewise, in the Aysén and Magallanes areas, vast areas
all vegetation types of the region south of 38◦ S throughout the
that in the 1970s were sparsely settled are now popular national
Holocene, including even the wet coastal rainforests (Heusser
and international destinations for tourism. The increasing human
1994; Haberle et al. 2000). In some cases, sharp increases in
presence throughout the Nothofagus region of the southern
charcoal appear to indicate increased human activities, either
Andes is likely to increase the number of accidental and arson
during the pre-European period or in association with the arrival
fires. Such appears to have been the case in 2005, when a fire
of Europeans or their livestock as early as the 1600s (Huber and
ignited by a careless tourist burned 11 685 ha in Torres del Paine
Markgraf 2003; Huber et al. 2004).
NP, making 2005 the year of greatest fire extent in the Magallanes
Tree-ring studies for the large area of Chile south of ∼40◦ S
region since 1985.
are in an incipient stage but document the long-term presence of
fire in even the wettest rainforests. Initial tree-ring data on fire
history from the long-lived Fitzroya cupressoides in the coastal Are recent climatic trends increasing the risk
mountains of the Los Lagos District document fire occurrence of large, severe fires?
at relatively long intervals (on average >100 years) since at least
In the Nothofagus forest region, both short-term studies based
1300 (Lara et al. 2003). These rare fire events appear to be
on instrumental records as well as tree-ring studies of fire his-
associated with infrequent droughts affecting the coastal rain-
tory and climatic variation clearly show the dependence of years
forests at ∼40◦ S (Lara et al. 2003). On-going research in this
of widespread fire on exceptional drought. Years of widespread
same area based on large fire-scar datasets from F. cupressoides
fire in different parts of this extensive region have been shown
should further elucidate the role of fire in these forests over the
to be dependent on drought at monthly, seasonal, annual, and
past millennium (J. Sibold, unpubl. data). Tree-ring fire histo-
supra-annual time scales that can be driven by either decreased
ries from Pilgerodendron uviferum, the other long-lived conifer
precipitation or increased temperatures (Kitzberger and Veblen
of the southern rainforests, also show substantial promise in
2003; Lara et al. 2003; González and Veblen 2006). At a subcon-
elucidating the roles of anthropogenic v. natural fires and their
tinental scale, temperature trends over the past ∼100 years follow
relationships to climatic variation in forests at 43◦ to 48◦ S over
the warming pattern established for the southern hemisphere
the past several hundred years (A. Holz, unpubl. data).
(Villalba et al. 2003). Based on instrumental climate records, the
mean hemisphere temperature rose by between 0.3◦ and 0.6◦ C
Have modern land-use practices increased since the late 19th century, and by ∼0.2◦ to 0.3◦ C since the mid-
the risk of large, severe fires? 1970s (Villalba et al. 2003). Tree-ring records from 37◦ to 55◦ S
To what extent have modern (i.e. post-1970) land-use practices indicate that 20th-century temperatures through 1989 rose by
such as fire suppression or planting of exotic trees altered the 0.5◦ to 0.9◦ C above the 1640–1899 means (Villalba et al. 2003).
potential for high-severity fire in the Nothofagus forest region Furthermore, the temporal pattern of temperature fluctuations
in general? For the rainforest areas, it is unlikely that fire since 1856 is strongly linked to global sea surface temperatures
suppression has significantly altered fuel accumulation and con- anomalies and is likely to continue to follow the warming hemi-
sequently the potential for more severe fires. In these wet forests, spheric and global warming trend (Villalba et al. 2003). The
Fire in the Andean–Patagonian Nothofagus forest region
relatively sharp increase in spring temperatures observed after
1976 in the Bariloche and Temuco climate records (Figs 5 and
9) is representative of a general post-1976 warming trend for the
entire region from latitudes 37◦ to 55◦ S (Villalba et al. 2003). In
addition to this recent warming trend, at least in the Argentine
Lake District there has been a documented increase in the num-
ber of lightning-ignited fires since the mid-1970s (Kitzberger
and Veblen 2003). Furthermore, a recent analysis of data from
numerous climate stations on both sides of the Andes showed a
declining trend in mean annual precipitation for latitudes 40◦ to
47◦ S for the 1950–2000 period (Aravena 2007). Finally, gen-
eral circulation models predict a decline in precipitation for
most of this region during the next century (Vera et al. 2006;
Christensen et al. 2007), which will further promote fire
occurrence and, for some forest types, will impede post-fire
regeneration (Tercero-Bucardo et al. 2007).
Conclusions
When events occur at relatively long intervals, such as years of
widespread fires in mesic forests, it is difficult to detect temporal
trends in the absence of precise long-term records. Such is the
case for many of the areas affected by severe, widespread fires in
the late 1990s and early 2000s in the Nothofagus forest region of
southern South America. Documentary records of fire are either
short (i.e. reliable Chilean records start only in 1970s) or are
limited in spatial coverage (i.e. Argentine NPs). However, these
records support the tentative conclusion that widespread, severe
fires of the 1990s–2000s were not uniquely large in comparison
with the previous 30 to 60 years. Likewise, qualitative historical
descriptions imply that fire events of comparable scale occurred
in the same forest ecosystems at least several times over the
previous 100 to 150 years.
Although the scale of recent fires appears to be within the
historic range of variability of the past several centuries in the
Nothofagus forest region, the cumulative effects on the land-
scape of land-use changes and past episodes of drought-induced
fires appear to be creating conditions outside the HRV of the past
several centuries. This is clearly the case for large parts of the
Argentine Lake District, where positive feedbacks between fire
and more flammable fuel structures have contributed to conver-
sion of significant areas of mesic forests to tall shrublands. The
inhibitory effects of livestock on post-fire recovery of forests fur-
ther add to this positive feedback, resulting in the potential for
more widespread fires in the future. At a regional scale in both
Argentina and Chile, the potential for greater fire spread has
been increased by massive conversion of relatively fire-resistant
native forests to plantations of fire-prone exotic conifers. At the
same time, potential for anthropogenic ignitions has increased as
a result of rapid growth of exurban development and recreational
use of some parts of this region.
Overall, the most important driver of large, severe fire events
in the Nothofagus region in the 1990s–2000s was interannual cli-
matic variability similar to that documented from tree rings for
the past several centuries. There has been a trend towards higher
temperatures and increased drought that is evident throughout
the region for the post-1976 period. In at least parts of the
region, there also has been a substantial increase in the fre-
quency of lightning storms and lightning-ignited fires in the
Int. J. Wildland Fire 739
last few decades. The current multidecadal trend towards higher
temperatures evident over most of southern South America and
linked to global anthropogenic warming is likely to continue to
increase the frequency and severity of extreme droughts during
the 21st century. These climate trends in combination with the
noted land-use changes imply that the large fire events of the
late 1990s–2000s may be the initiation of a longer-lasting trend
towards increasingly widespread fire with accumulating changes
in landscape structure.
Acknowledgements
Research was supported by grants from the US National Science Founda-
tion (Award No. 0117366), the National Geographic Society, the Council
for Research and Creative Work of the Graduate School of the Univer-
sity of Colorado, International Foundation for Science (IFS, D/3124–2),
DID-Universidad Austral de Chile (S-2005–08), Núcleo Científico Mile-
nio (FORECOS-MIDEPLAN PO4–065-F, Chile), Fundación Andes-Chile
(C-13860), and the Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológ-
ica (ANPCyT, Argentina) PICT 97–01–2268. T.K. and E.R. are researchers
of Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas (CON-
ICET).
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Manuscript received 13 November 2007, accepted 24 October 2008