Financial Conditions Index

April - June 2021

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 CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index Drops to 59.11

The CII - IBA Financial Conditions Index for Q1 FY 2021-22 has registered a value of
59.1, owing to expectation of deterioration in the overall financial conditions in the
economy on account of factors namely External Financial Linkages, Cost of Funds
Index, Funding Liquidity Index and Economic Activity Index. While the Overall reading of
the index has deteriorated in comparison to the previous quarter, it still depicts overall
optimism on the Financial Conditions.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, there has been a decline in the reading from the
previous quarter in External Financial Linkages, Economic Activity Index and Funding
Liquidity Index, with a very marginal decline in Cost of Funds Index. Among the sub-
indices, the Funding Liquidity Index declined by 15.7 points, External Financial Linkages
Index declined by 20.5 points, the Economic Activity Index has declined by 16.5 points,
and Cost of Funds Index declined by 0.9 points. Though, the overall fall can be
attributed to the second wave spread of the pandemic, which broke the recovery India
had staged after the first wave and not due to any fundamental weakness. When
compared to Q1FY2020-21, when Index had registered a figure of 44.2, Index of
Q1FY2021-22, shows overall optimism, which can be attributed to the various support
measures announced by Government over last 1 year.

Table 1: Comparison of Performance of CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index

Period - Q1 FY 2020-21 to Q1 FY 2021-22
CII – IBA Financial Conditions Q1 FY Q2 FY Q3 FY Q4 FY Q1 FY
Index Sub-indices 2020-21 2020-21 2020-21 2020-21 2021-22

Cost of Funds Index 83.5 80.6 49.6 43.8 42.9

Funding Liquidity Index 47.2 71.1 78.8 82.4 66.7

External Financial Linkages Index 20.5 59.5 68.8 79.3 58.8

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Note: Significance of index levels –
Below 50 = Sub optimistic; 50 = optimistic; Above 50 = Largely optimistic

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Economic Activity Index 25.6 49.6 66.7 84.4 67.9

Financial Conditions Index 44.2 65.2 65.9 72.5 59.1

Table 2: Comparison of Performance of CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index for

Q1 FY 2021-22 vis-à-vis Q4 FY 2020-21

CII - IBA Financial Conditions Index

Q1 FY 2021-22 Q4 FY 2020-21 Difference
Sub-indices

Cost of Funds Index 42.9 43.8 - 0.9

Funding Liquidity Index 66.7 82.4 - 15.7
External Financial Linkages Index 58.8 79.3 - 20.5
Economic Activity Index 67.9 84.4 - 16.5
Financial Conditions Index 59.1 72.5 - 13.4
Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

The decline in the index (Table 2) is primarily due to continuous struggle to cope with
the spread of the second wave of the novel coronavirus, which has been deadly and
has impacted both human life and economy adversely, however, there is still optimism
in the expectation of the Banks and NBFCs due to the availability of vaccine during this
time as against the first wave.

This figure is based on Round 23 of the Financial Conditions Expectation Survey

undertaken in the month of April 2021, wherein a total of 3-0 entities participated in the
Survey which includes 09 Public Sector Banks, 11 Private Sector Banks, 03 Foreign
Banks, and 01 Cooperative Bank. Representing other financial institutions, 06 leading
NBFCs participated in the Survey. Details of the participants are given in Annexure II.

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Chart 1: Performance of CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index at Sub-Indices Level

Performance of CII - IBA Financial Conditions Index - at

Sub-Indices level

Economic Activity Index 67.9

External Financial Linkages Index 58.8

Funding Liquidity Index 66.7

Cost of Funds Index 42.9

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

Chart 2: Category-wise Responses

Category-wise Responses

20%

30%
Public Sector Banks

3% Private Sector Banks

Foreign Banks

10% Cooperative Banks

NBFCs

37%

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

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1. SUB-INDICES LEVEL ANALYSIS

The CII-IBA financial condition index comprises of four sub-indices, each having equal
weights.

Financial
Condition
Index

Funding External
Cost of Funds Economic
Liquidity financial
Index activity Index
Index linkages Index

This section presents the sub-indices level analysis of the CII-IBA financial condition
index.

1.1 COST OF FUNDS INDEX:

The Cost of Funds Index for Q1 has dropped marginally and recorded a value of 42.9
as against 43.8 in the previous quarter. As per the survey, this is the lowest recorded
value for Q1 which is primarily due to the expectation of hike or no change by
respondent Banks and NBFCs in Short-term interest rate - Interbank Call Rate / 3
Month Bank CD rate, Long-term interest rate - Yield on 10 Year GoI Bond, Corporate
Bond Spread - between Top Rated 10 Year Corporate Bond & GoI Bond and Marginal
Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) – 1 year. Since interest rates are already
low and considerable pass through has taken place, further reduction in interest rate
could be envisaged if the signal interest rate is further reduced which is quite unlikely in
the near term.

The performance of the cost of funds index across the indicators is exhibited below:

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 Cost of Funds Index

100.0
Percentage of Responses

90.0 33.3
80.0 43.3 43.3
70.0 63.3
60.0
50.0 40.0
40.0 33.3
40.0
30.0 23.3
20.0 26.7
16.7 23.3
10.0 13.3
0.0
Short-term Long-term Corporate Bond Marginal Cost of
interest rate - interest rate - Spread - Funds based
Interbank Call Yield on 10 Year between Top Lending Rate
Rate / 3 Month GoI Bond Rated 10 Year (MCLR) – 1 year
Bank CD rate Corporate Bond
& GoI Bond
Improvement Deterioration No Change

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

Key findings from the Cost of funds index, CII-IBA FCI Round 23, April 2021

 As per the survey, 16.7% of the respondents expect the short-term interest rate to
come down while 40% of the respondents expect the interest rate to increase with
over 43.3% respondents expect no change. RBI too in its recently concluded
monetary policy maintained status quo and expectation of maintaining low interest
rate regime continues in future as well. Due to the persistent liquidity surplus in the
banking system, the weighted average call money rate has been ruling below the
reverse repo rate of 3.35 per cent for quite sometime now. From the week
beginning April, 2021 which is the period of the survey,the weighted average call
rate was hovering from 3.13 per cent during the first week of April and it was 3.22
per cent during the first week of May. Given the liquidity position prevailing at this
point of time, majority of the respondents have indicated no change in the rate or
further moderation in the rate. The trend seen so far substantiates the views of the
participants.

 In terms of long-term interest rate, Yield on 10 year GoI Bond, 26.7% of the
respondents expect the interest rate to decrease while almost 40% of the
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 respondents think otherwise. Remaining 33.3% of the respondents expect the
long-term interest rates to remain the same. The announcement of Government
Securities Secondary Market Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) by RBI in the
secondary market will provide clarity and also provide the much-needed liquidity
in the market while allowing the RBI to maintain a moderate 10-year G-sec rate
to support economic activity and the huge Government borrowing programme.
Till April, 30th , 2021, the amount raised through the government borrowing
programme for FY22 is 8.5% of the total budgeted borrowing limit of Rs 12.05
lakh crs in FY22. During the first two weeks of April, the weighted average yields
in G-Sec was hovering above 6.0 per cent. But with the announcement of G-SAP
, during the week of April 16, the yield came down below 6.0 per cent. Based on
the release calendar for the first half of FY21, the government is going to borrow
Rs 7.24 lakh crs which is 60% of scheduled borrowing amount for the fiscal FY
22. The average 10-year benchmark GSec yields in April moderated to a three
month low of 6.06%, 14 bps lower than a month ago. RBI’s announcement to buy
additional Rs 35, 000 crore sovereign bonds in May has also helped to bring
down the yield below 6.0 per cent. Structured purchase programme has calmed
investor nerves and helped reduce the spread between the repo rate and the 10-
year government bond yield.

 In terms of corporate bond spread, 23.3% of the respondents expect that the spread
will narrow further, while the majority of the respondents of almost 33.3% of the
respondents believe that the corporate bond spread will widen. The remaining
respondents (43.3%) expect corporate bond spread to remain the same. Corporate
bond yields (weighted average yields) at 6.21% in April declined by 76 bps from that
in March, 2021.The spread between 10 year G-Sec and AAA rated corporate bond
reduced from 77 bps in March, 2021 to 15 bps in April, 2021. The trend supports the
views of majority of the respondents who expects the yield to narrow down.

 The survey indicated that in terms of Marginal Cost of Fund-based Lending Rate,
13.3% of the respondents expect favourable change (reduction) in the MCLR, while
63.3% of the respondents expect the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate
to remain constant. 23.3 per cent of the respondents expect the MCLR to increase.
Rate trends supports the views of the majority of the participants, Overnight MCLR
remained range bound between 6.55-7.05 for several years. Similarly, the median
one-year MCLR remained @7.30 per cent since December, 2020. This indicates
that further reduction in interest rates will be possible only if there is a reduction in
signal rates.

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1.2 FUNDING LIQUIDITY INDEX:

The funding liquidity index in the current quarter recorded a value of 66.7, which has
declined moderately in comparison to the previous quarter. This index depicts the
likely liquidity position in the market.

Funding Liquidity Index

100.0
20.0 26.7
Percentage of Responses

90.0 30.0
36.7
80.0
70.0 26.7 13.3
60.0 10.0 26.7
50.0
40.0
53.3 53.3 60.0
30.0
43.3
20.0
10.0
0.0
Liquidity Mobilization in Issuance in Mobilization from
Adjustment Money Market Corporate Bond Equity Market:
Facility – Net through CPs / Market IPO / FPO /
Borrowings by CDs Rights Issue /
Banks / Term QIPs
Repos / Reverse
Repos

Improvement Deterioration No Change

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

Key findings from the Funding Liquidity Index, CII-IBA FCI Round 23, April 2021 –

 According to the survey, 53.3% respondents expect that the borrowing by the banks
through LAF window will decrease. 36.7% of the respondents expect the borrowing
by the banks through LAF window might remain the same and the remaining 10% of
the respondents expect an increase in the borrowings. Considering the liquidity
position, the banks’ borrowing will be lower which is similar to the views of majority
of the participants. The banking system has been sustaining a liquidity surplus since
the past two years. Increase in the growth of deposits, lower economic activity and
the several liquidity injection measures are the reasons for ample liquidity in the
banking system. As of 14 May 21, the outstanding banking system liquidity surplus

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 stood at Rs. 4.30 lakh crs. System liquidity is expected to continue for some more
time.

 As per the survey, close to 43.3% of the respondents expect the mobilization from
the money market to increase, whereas 26.7% of the respondents expect a fall in
the mobilization of funds from money market instruments with the remaining 30% of
the respondents expecting no change. Commercial paper issuances (as per RBI) in
April 2021 was lower at Rs 89,576 crs, 33% lower than the corresponding month of
the previous year and 60% lower than the previous month. The second wave of
COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent localised lockdowns in April 2021 has led
to lower short term fund requirements by the corporates. As for Certificate of
Deposits, amount issued through CDs as on 23rd April, 2021 was 765 crores as
against Rs 4539 crores issued on 24th April, 2020 showing a steep decline of
resource mobilization through this channel. Most of the survey respondents
indicated lower appetite for short term funds. This could be due to uncertainty
revolving around the second wave.

 The survey points out that majority of the respondents (53.3%) are optimistic about
the increase in issuance in the bond market while 26.7% of the respondents expect
the issuance in the corporate bond market to decrease. The remaining 20% of the
respondents expect no change in this quarter. With increased liquidity requirement
by the economy, expectation of increase in bond issuance is there, however, yields
have been volatile, and with the possibility of more government spending to mitigate
the impact of the pandemic, the supply of government notes may lead to crowding-
out effect. Total bond issuances in April 2021 amounted to Rs 27,888 crs, 71% lower
than the previous month and 65% lower than the corresponding month of the
previous year. Borrowing costs of the corporate bonds have considerably moderated
and mirrored the G-Sec yields. Though from the cost point of view, cost is
reasonable, but the issuance is yet to take off in Q1 of FY 22.

 As per the survey, 60% of the respondents believe that the mobilization from the
equity market is likely to increase, whereas only 13.3% of respondents believe that
the mobilization from equity market will decrease. The remaining 26.7% of the
respondents expect no change in mobilization from equity market. Since April 2021,
11 companies and since January, 30 companies have filled draft offer documents
with SEBI for approval to raise funds from equity market. Most of the issues received
good response from the investors. Markets move on sentiments and also respond to
stability in the long run. Since India’s growth is expected to pick up on a durable
basis from the second half of FY 22, equity market is touching new highs. Foreign
portfolio investors (FPIs) are also helping the equity market.

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1.3 EXTERNAL FINANCIAL LINKAGES INDEX
The external financial linkages index has recorded a value of 58.8 which is
moderately lower in comparison to the previous quarter. The performance indicator is
exhibited below:

External Financial Linkages Index

100.0 10.0 10.0

16.7
90.0 33.3
Percentage of Responses

80.0 23.3
70.0 53.3 36.7
60.0 16.7
50.0
40.0 66.7
30.0 46.7 50.0
20.0 36.7
10.0
0.0
Nominal Net Capital Mobilization Foreign
Exchange Rate Inflows – FIIs through ECBs / Exchange
(USD / INR) FCCBs / ADRs / Reserves
GDRs
Improvement Deterioration No Change

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

Key findings from the External financial linkages index, CII-IBA FCI Round 23, April
2021-

 According to the survey, majority of the respondents (66.7%) expect the foreign
exchange reserves to increase, while only 23.3% expect it to decrease. The
remaining 10% of the respondents expect the foreign exchange reserves to remain
the same. As per RBI data, the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by
$3.913 billion to reach $588.02 billion in the week ended April 30, 2021. In the
corresponding weeks of May, 2021 also foreign exchange reserves have increased.

 In terms of net capital inflows, 46.7% of the respondents expect that the investment
by FII will increase, while 36.7% of the respondents feel that the investment by FII will
decrease. Only 16.7% of the respondents expect the investments by FIIs to remain
constant. In the period of January-April 2021, FIIs have been net purchasers to the
tune of INR 40231.06 crores. During fiscal year 2020-21, net foreign investment
inflows amounted to USD 80.2 billion, with net FDI inflows of USD 54.7 billion and net
inflows of FPI inflows of USD 38.1 billion.

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 In terms of nominal exchange rate, approximately 36.7% of the respondents expect
the exchange rate to appreciate and 53.3% of the respondents expect the exchange
rate to depreciate, however, the remaining 10% of the respondents expect the
nominal exchange rate to remain constant.

 According to the survey, 50% of the respondents expect the mobilization through
ADRs, GDRs, ECBs & FCCBs to increase, but 16.7% of the respondents think
otherwise. Further to this, the remaining 33.3% of the respondents expect the
mobilization to remain the same. India Inc’s external commercial borrowings grew by
over 24 per cent to USD 9.2 billion in March 2021, as per Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) data. Indian firms had raised USD 7.4 billion from the foreign market in the
same period a year ago. Of the total borrowings during March 2021, USD 5.4 billion
came in through the approval route of the external commercial borrowings (ECB),
while the rest of USD 3.9 billion was raked in via the automatic route of raising funds
from international markets. No money was raised through the rupee denominated
bonds (RDB) or the masala bonds.

1.4 Economic Activity Index

As per the survey, the expectation on the Economic Activity Index has seen a
moderate decline as compared to the previous quarter and has registered a value of
67.9 which is optimistic in nature.

The performance of the economic activity index across the indicators is exhibited
below:

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 Economic Activity Index

0.0
100.0 6.7 6.7
13.3
90.0 30.0
10.0
Percentage of Responses

80.0
70.0 13.3
60.0 73.3
50.0 93.3
40.0 76.7

30.0 56.7

20.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Real GDP Growth Inflation Non-Food Bank Asset Prices:
for the quarter (Consumer Price Credit Stock, Housing
Index)

Improvement Deterioration No Change

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

Key findings from the Economic Activity Index, CII-IBA FCI Round 23, April 2021 –

 The survey indicates that almost all the respondents (93.3%) expect the GDP growth
to increase in the current quarter with only 6.7% expecting otherwise. This is based
on the responses received from members in the month of March / 1st week of April.
 Considering the intensity of the second way and lock down in almost all states in
India, the economic activity has been subdued. Mobility indicators are also affected.
All the rating agencies have revised down the growth projection by 50bps-100bps
and expecting that the growth numbers of Q1 and Q2 of current fiscal will bear the
brunt of the second wave of covid-19. RBI in the April policy projected Q1 GDP of
26.2 per cent. Considering the extension of lock down in all states, Q1 growth
numbers may come down. Base effect of corresponding quarter of the previous year
will also play an important role.
 In terms of Inflation, 20% of the respondents expect inflation to decrease while
73.3% of the respondents expect the inflation to increase. The remaining 6.7% of the
respondents expect no change in the inflation. CPI inflation edged up to 5.5 per cent
in March 2021 from 5.0 per cent a month ago on the back of a pick-up in food as
well as fuel inflation while core inflation remained elevated. However, in April the
12
 retail inflation eased to 4.29 per cent due to softening of the food prices. As per RBI,
High-frequency food prices data for April 2021 suggests further softening of prices of
cereals and key vegetables while price pressures in pulses and edible oils remain.
With CoVID19 infection spreading, leading to lock-downs and partial lock-downs,
thus impacting logistics and supply-chains. This is expected to put pressure on the
overall inflation in the economy. On the price front RBI Governor in his 5th May, 2021
special address has indicated that inflation trajectory over the rest of the year will be
shaped by the COVID-19 infections and the impact of localised containment
measures on supply chains and logistics. This echoes caution on prices which is
also indicated by the participants.

 As per the survey, 76.7% respondents expect the non-food bank credit to increase
while 10% of the respondents expecting this to decrease. The remaining 13.3% of
respondents expect no change in the current status. The overall credit growth
continues to moderate due to risk aversion and continued parking of excess liquidity
with the RBI. As per RBI data, on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, non-food bank credit
growth stood at 4.9 per cent in March 2021 as compared to 6.7 per cent in March
2020. With the pandemic induced slowdown of the economy, expectations of rise in
non-food bank credit is low.

 According to the survey, 56.7% respondents expect an increase in the asset price
with only 13.3% of the respondents expect the asset price to decrease with the
remaining 30% respondents expect no change at all.

The CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index is based on a survey of major banks and
financial institutions on their expectations of key financial and economic variables
determining financial conditions in the Indian economy. A total of 30 leading banks and
financial institutions participated in the survey for the current quarter.

13
 Sub-indices Contribution (in %) to Financial Conditions Index

18.2%

28.7% Cost of Funds Index

Funding Liquidity Index

External Financial Linkages Index

Economic Activity Index

28.2%

24.9%

Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

 The maximum contribution to the current quarter of financial conditions index was by
the Economic Activity Index (28.7%) while the Cost of Funds Index contribution to
the overall index was the least (18.2%). The Funding Liquidity Index contribution to
the index was the second highest (28.2%) followed by the External Financial
Linkages with 24.9%.

 Category wise analysis of the FCI is depicted below:

Category-wise Financial Conditions Index

NBFCs 54.2

Cooperative Banks 62.5

Foreign Banks 64.6

Private Sector Banks 58.0

Public Sector Banks 61.5

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

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Source: CII – IBA Financial Conditions Index – Round 23, April 2021

The CII - IBA Financial Conditions Index was launched in April 2015 to (i) Serve as a
key indicator in assessing the short term financial conditions in the Indian economy, (ii)
Provide effective monitoring of current financial conditions for facilitating regulatory and
policy decisions, (iii) Provide early signals on turning points in financial conditions, and
(iv) Help tracking credit flow conditions for industry & service sectors from various
channels.

*******

15
 Annexure - I

List of Participating Banks & Financial Institutions

CII – IBA Financial Conditions Expectation Survey, Round 23, April 2021

S.No. Public Sector Banks 3 HSBC Bank

1 State Bank of India
2 Indian Bank S.No. Cooperative Banks
3 UCO Bank 1 Janata Bank
4 Canara Bank
5 Union Bank of India
S.No. NBFCs
6 IDBI Bank
7 Punjab National Bank 1 Aditya Birla Capital

8 Central Bank of India 2 Tata Capital

9 Punjab and Sind Bank 3 Magma FinCorp

4 HDFC Ltd
S.No. Private Sector Banks
SREI Infrastructure
1 IndusInd Bank 5
Finance
2 KarurVysya Bank 6 Bajaj Finance
3 Karnataka Bank
4 AU Small Finance Bank Ltd.
5 IDFC First Bank
6 RBL Bank
7 Kotak Mahindra Bank
8 HDFC Bank
9 Yes Bank
10 Bandhan Bank
11 South Indian Bank

S.No. Foreign Banks

1 Deutsche Bank
2 Citi Bank

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 Annexure – II
Total Assets of the Respondents (As on 31/3/2020)

S.No. Banks/FI Total Assets (Rs. Crores)

Public sector banks
1 State Bank of India 39,51,394
2 Indian Bank 3,09,468
3 Canara Bank 7,23,875
4 Union Bank of India 5,50,683
5 Punjab National Bank 12,54,934
6 IDBI Bank 2,99,942
7 UCO Bank 2,35,908
8 Central Bank of India 3,56,436
9 Punjab & Sind Bank 1,00,503
Private sector banks
10 IndusInd Bank 3,07,229
11 KarurVysya Bank 68,278
12 Karnataka Bank 83,313
13 RBL Bank 88,978
14 Kotak Mahindra Bank 4,43,173
15 AU Small Finance Bank 42,143
16 IDFC First Bank 1,49,200
17 Bandhan Bank 91,717
18 HDFC Bank 15,30,511
19 Yes Bank 2,57,827
20 South Indian Bank 97,032
Foreign banks
21 Deutsche Bank 1,22,000
22 Citi Bank 2,18,802
23 HSBC Bank 2,11,173
Co-operative banks
24 Janata Bank
NBFC
25 Aditya Birla Capital 1,13,769
26 Tata Capital 75,000
27 HDFC Ltd 5,54,172
28 Magma FinCorp 16,134
29 Bajaj Finance Ltd 1,38,004
30 SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd 41,298

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Indian Banks' Association (IBA) was formed on 26 September 1946. IBA is a voluntary
Association of Indian Public Sector Banks, Private Sector Banks, Co-operative Sector
Banks, Regional Rural Banks, Foreign Banks operating in India and other Financial
Institutions. At present IBA has 140 banks as Ordinary Members and 10 9 financial
institutions as Associate Members. The Association promotes sound and progressive
banking principles and practices. It works proactively for the growth of a healthy
professional and forward looking banking and financial services industry in a manner
consistent with public good. IBA endeavours to a) promote sound and progressive
banking principles and practices b) assist and provide common services to members c)
co-ordinate and co-operate on procedural, legal, technical, administration, and
professional matters d) collate, classify and circulate statistical and other information e)
Pool expertise towards common objectives and reduction in costs, increase efficiency,
productivity and improve systems, procedures and banking practices f) Build up the
image of banking industry through publicity and public relations. Over a period of time
IBA has evolved as the “Voice of the Indian Banking Industry”.

Indian Banks’ Association

Centre-1, 6th Floor,

World Trade Centre Complex,

Cuffe Parade,

Mumbai – 400 005

Tel : 91 22 22174040 Fax : 91 22 22184222

Email : webmaster@iba.org.in Website: www.iba.org.in

18
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) works to create and sustain an environment conducive to
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