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Delayed recovery. Ujjivan’s business update indicates a steady decline in overdue loans CMP (`): 20
(~22% as of August 2021) helped by collections as well as restructuring of loans. Fair Value (`): 24
Attrition/HR-related challenges have likely amplified the Covid-led asset quality challenges.
BSE-30: 60,048
The bank has proffered credit cost guidance which conservatively captures the risks in
our view. On a positive note, retail deposits have increased in recent months despite the
turbulence post CEO exit. We cut estimates sharply for the current year, even as the
target multiple already captures the uncertainties. Retain ADD with Rs24 FV (unchanged).
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank
Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2021 2022E 2023E
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 20/24/ADD EPS (Rs) (0.1) (2.3) 2.4
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 45-18 EPS growth (%) (103.1) (3,778.5) 201.8
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 35/0.5 P/E (X) (331.7) (8.6) 8.4
ADTV-3M (bn) (Rs/US$) 0.2/0.1 P/B (X) 1.3 1.5 1.2
Shareholding pattern (%) BVPS 15.9 13.7 16.7
Promoters 83.3 RoE (%) 0.3 (12.8) 14.2
FPIs/MFs/BFIs 4.0/0.0/0.0 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M NII (Rs bn) 17 17 23
Absolute (2.2) (35.7) (36.4) PPOP (Rs bn) 8 7 10
Rel. to BSE-30 (9.5) (49.7) (100.7) Net profits (Rs bn) 0 (4) 4
August business update: gradual recovery with high credit cost guidance
Key takeaways from Ujjivan’s August business update: (1) Overall PAR book (i.e. total overdues)
declined to ~22% in August from ~31% in June 2021. Adjusting for fresh restructuring and
collections, the PAR book increased by ~2% during July-August. (2) The bank’s restructured
loans, apart from already overdue loans above, stood at 6% as of August. (3) Ujjivan has guided
for 7.5-8% credit costs in FY2022E. (4) Disbursements have started to gain pace, but are yet to
return to their pre-Covid run-rate. (5) Not much to read into the liability performance but growth
in retail/CASA deposits allays concerns of impact on retail deposits due to issues at the bank.
Asset quality headwinds aggravated by organizational issues
Ujjivan is going through a tough phase with twin after-effects of Covid as well as weakened
collection efforts. We suspect that lower headcount, especially the field force, would have
impacted collections during the crucial months of a second Covid wave. Our initial reading of
the situation at the time of the CEO’s resignation suggested an operational/HR issue more than
a serious concern on underwriting quality. However, even as the bank regains its footing,
recovery is likely to be delayed. In line with the guidance, we raise credit cost to 7.5% (from Abhijeet Sakhare
4.2%) for FY2022E which fairly captures the risk and probably provides the bank some
headroom to manage expectations; FY2023E credit cost is left unchanged at 2%, where we see
M B Mahesh, CFA
a positive surprise potential.
Delayed recovery to weigh on bank multiples; holdco play more attractive
We cut earnings sharply for FY2022E with marginal changes in FY2023/24E. We retain FV of Nischint Chawathe
Rs24, rolling over valuations to 1.3X September 2023 book and 8X earnings for RoE of 15-16%
over the medium-term. Our target multiple builds a higher-than-peers cost of equity due to
higher uncertainty during the organizational rebuilding and its impact on asset quality. We Ashlesh Sonje
would look to unwind this discount following a few quarters of improving asset quality/growth
as the bank re-establishes its ability to participate in the ensuing recovery.
Dipanjan Ghosh
We see better risk-reward at Ujjivan holdco which trades ~35% discount to SFB valuation. At
our Fair Value for the bank and 25% holdco discount, the holdco is valued at Rs215 i.e. c.40%
upside. Besides the share swap ratio which gets decided post a valuation exercise, we see Jatin Sangwan
limited regulatory risk with RBI willing to consider merger proposals while SEBI has also recently
tweaked the promoter lock-in requirement to 1.5 years from 3 years earlier.
kspcg.research@kotak.com
Contact: +91 22 6218 6427
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Banks Ujjivan Small Finance Bank
Exhibit 2: Retail deposits continue to improve Exhibit 3: Marginal improvement in CASA ratio
March fiscal year-ends, 3QFY19-1QFY22, August 2021 (%) March 2021 – August 2021 (%)
40
36 33 30 30 31 50.0 51.3
33 24 47.5 47.6 10
33 30 32 32
26 26
20
16 18 21 20 21 12 5
10 11 10 12 12 14 14
0
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
Aug-21
0 0
Mar-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 4: Decline in PAR book is riven by restructuring as well as actual collections during July-
August
Movement in PAR book (%)
PAR book at June Restructuring Actual collections Increase in PAR PAR at August
35
28 5.7
5.2
21 2.2
30.8
14
22.1
Exhibit 5: Overdue plus restructured book has seen a decline to ~28% as of August 2021
Overdue loans across bucket, June-August 2021 (%)
21
2.6
11.9
14 8 .6
1.5
7 3.1
9.8
5.1
0
Jun-21 Aug-21
PAR>0
35
30.8
28 25.2 25.0
21.7
21
16.8 16.2
14 9.9
8 .8 14.9
6.7
5.4
7 4.0 3.3 3.3
2.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8
Jul-21
Jul-21
4QFY17
1QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
2QFY20
3QFY20
2QFY21
3QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY18
3QFY18
2QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
4QFY21
Aug-21
Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities
Exhibit 7: Covid has been more severe and drawn out compared to demonetization
MFI loan book and credit cost (annualized), March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY16-1QFY22
88 16
76 12
64 8
52 4
40 0
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
2QFY19
3QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
3QFY21
1QFY22
1QFY17
3QFY17
2QFY18
1QFY19
4QFY19
3QFY20
2QFY21
4QFY21
Notes:
(1) We have smoothened the credit cost over 3QFY21-4QFY21 by taking the average.
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Microbanking 8 3% 88% 8 9% 94% 92% 92% 94% 88% 71% 77% 93% 95%
MSE (secured) 8 1% 8 6% 88% 90% 90% 8 9% 90% 8 7% 75% 8 2% 8 7% 8 6%
MSE (unsecured) 62% 67% 67% 69% 66% 62% 63% 48 % 35% 40% 41% 33%
Affordable housing 92% 93% 94% 94% 94% 94% 96% 91% 8 7% 91% 93% 92%
Personal loan 79% 88% 88% 8 9% 91% 90% 91% 88% 8 6% 88% 88% 8 9%
Vehicle loan 92% 91% 96% 97% 97% 88% 99% 96% 8 6% 8 6% 92% 92%
FIG lending 100% 100% 100% 99% 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 99% 100%
Total 84% 88% 89% 94% 92% 92% 94% 89% 72% 78% 93% 95%
Exhibit 9: Ujjivan’s employee base has declined by ~10% since start of Covid
Indexed movement of number of employees, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-21 (#)
140
120
100
80
60
40
4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22
Exhibit 10: Covid impact on asset quality for Ujjivan is similar to other peers
As of June 2021 (%)
36.0
27.0
18.0
9.0
-
Bandhan CAG Ujjivan Suryoday Spandana
Notes:
(1) There are possible overlaps between restructured loans and overdue loans.
70
56
42
28
14
-
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jul-20
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-20
Jan-21
Apr-20
Apr-21
Sep-20
Sep-21
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Feb-20
Feb-21
Oct-20
Aug-20
Aug-21
Dec-19
Dec-20
At KIE FV At CMP
RGM based fair value per share for SFB (Rs) 24 20
Number of shares (mn) 1,728 1,728
RGM based fair value for SFB (Rs mn) 41,427 34,307
Adj. book value per share for SFB (Rs) 19 19
Target multiple for SFB (X) 1.3 1.1
Holding company's stake in SFB (%) 83 83
Fair value of holding company's stake in SFB (Rs mn) 34,517 28,585
Target holding company discount (%) 25.0 25.0
Fair value of holding company (Rs mn) 25,888 21,438
Holding company NOSH 121.2 121.2
Fair value per share of holding company (Rs) 214 177
Current market price of holding company (Rs) 152 152
Upside to current maret price (%) 41 16
60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which Kotak
Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has provided
50%
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.
Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not
strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.
Other definitions
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designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.
Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulation(s)
and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction
involving this company and in certain other circumstances.
RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock
and should not be relied upon.
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