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BUY

Result Update Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Ltd. Target Price


25th January, 2024 BFSI–Banks
64

Growth Outlook Strong, Maintain BUY!


Est. Vs. Actual for Q3FY24: NII – INLINE; PPOP – INLINE; PAT – Marginal BEAT (CMP as of 24 Jan, 2024)
Changes in Estimates post Q3FY24 CMP (Rs) 55
FY24E/FY25E: NII: -0.7%/-0.9%; PPOP: -4.2%/-3.1%; PAT: -2.1%/-3.4%
Upside /Downside (%) 20%
Recommendation Rationale
 Pushing growth in the secured businesses – While the Affordable Housing and FIG High/Low (Rs) 63/23
segment continues to drive growth in the secured businesses portfolio, the management Market cap (Cr) 10,828
expects the MSE segment to pick up momentum in the coming few quarters. UJSFB has also
forayed into Gold Loans and 2-wheeler Financing and will look to ramp up these businesses in Avg. daily vol. (6m)Shrs. 2,14,00,296
FY25E. The on-ground demand for MFI loans remains robust. This coupled with a sustained No. of shares (Cr) 195.6
pace of new customer additions should drive growth in the MFI segment. Going forward,
UJSFB is eyeing to achieve a portfolio mix where secured products contribute 40% vs. ~24% Shareholding (%)
currently. Thus, driven by strong demand across products and scale-up of new products,
Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
UJSFB is likely to deliver a strong advances growth of ~25% CAGR over FY24-26E.
 Margins to hold up as CoF pressure eases – UJSFB has been able to maintain its margins Promoter 73.7 73.7 73.6
at 8.9% (in 9MFY24) owing to drawdown of excess liquidity, slower increase in CoF and benefit FIIs 3.9 3.5 3.7
from asset re-pricing. The management remains confident of maintaining NIMs at ~9% in
MFs / UTI 1.6 1.1 1.3
FY24E, primarily supported by loan re-pricing. Currently, ~20% of the book is yet to see a rate
revision of ~50bps and ~17% of the book is yet to see a ~100bps rate increase. Thus, support Others 20.9 21.7 21.4
from improving yields and drawdown of excess liquidity resulting in lower negative carry should
offset the impact of increased CoF and enable UJSFB to maintain NIMs at ~8.9% in FY24. Financial & Valuations
That said, as the portfolio mix shifts towards secured products, margin compression is Y/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY24E FY25E FY26E
imminent. We expect margins to contract by ~8.5-8.6% over FY25-26E.
NII 3,407 4,138 5,076
 Asset Quality – UJSFB has seen a marginal increase of 15bps in the SMA pool; however, this
is attributed to seasonality. The management foresees no major challenges on asset quality PPOP 1,917 2,318 2,870
and thus has re-iterated its confidence in maintaining credit costs at sub-1% in FY24. UJSFB Net Profit 1,282 1,420 1,724
expects to exit FY24 with a GNPA of ~2%. However, as the book seasons, credit costs will EPS (Rs) 6.6 7.3 8.8
begin to normalize and settle at ~1.25-1.3% over FY25-26E.
ABV (Rs) 25.7 31.9 39.2
Sector Outlook: Positive
Company Outlook: Healthy demand across products along with a gradual scale-up in the new P/ABV (x) 2.1 1.7 1.4
products should help UJSFB sustain its growth momentum over the medium term. Focus on RoA (%) 3.4 3.0 2.9
growing the granular retail deposits along with efforts to boost the CASA ratio should augur well in NNPA (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2
terms of margins and should lend some support to NIMs, as a shift in the portfolio mix will keep
NIMs under check. Despite NIM pressures, improving Opex ratios to 50-52% by FY26E and Change in Estimates (%)
normalised credit costs should support RoA/RoE delivery of 2.9-3%/24-25% over FY25-26E.
Y/E Mar FY24E FY25E
Current Valuation: 1.8x Sep’25E ABV Earlier Valuation: 2.0x FY25E ABV
Current TP: Rs 64/share Earlier TP: Rs 64/share NII -0.7 -0.9
Recommendation: We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock. PPOP -4.2 -3.1
Alternate BUY Ideas from our Sector Coverage: PAT -2.1 -3.4
CreditAccess Grameen (TP – Rs 1,970)
Financial Performance ESG disclosure Score**
 Disbursements grew by 15% YoY and de-grew by 3% QoQ, with flat growth in MFI and a 5% de-
Environmental Disclosure N.A
growth in the non-MFI segments. Advances growth of 27/4% YoY/QoQ was driven by non-MFI
loans (+24/7% YoY/QoQ), while MFI loans grew by 28/3% YoY/QoQ. The share of MFI loans Social Disclosure Score N.A
stood at 71% vs 72% QoQ. Governance Disclosure Score N.A
 Deposits grew by 29/3% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by CASA Deposits (+24/8% YoY/QoQ), while
Total ESG Disclosure Score N.A
TDs grew by 30/1% YoY/QoQ. CASA Ratio stood at 25.3% vs 26.2/24.1% YoY/QoQ. The bank
continued to reduce its dependence on bulk deposits. Sector Average 38.8
 NII grew by 23/4% YoY/QoQ led by healthy advances growth, while margins remained stable Source: Bloomberg, Scale: 0.1-100
QoQ and stood at 8.8%. Non-interest income growth of 33% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Opex **Note: This score measures the amount of ESG data a company reports
publicly and does not measure the company's performance on any data
growth was elevated at 31/11% YoY/QoQ, primarily driven by Employee expense (+39/15% point. All scores are based on 2022 disclosures
YoY/QoQ). Credit costs are gradually normalizing and stood at 93bps during the quarter.PAT
grew by 2% YoY and de-grew by ~8% QoQ. Asset quality improvement continued with GNPA Relative performance
down 146/17bps YoY/QoQ.
480
Outlook
380
New product scale-up in the secured business along with focused efforts on building the liability
280
effort should keep the business growth momentum strong over the medium term. The reverse
180
merger is nearing its completion and is expected to conclude by Q4FY24 post the requisite
80
approvals. We largely maintain our NII estimates, while we revise our earnings estimations
Feb-23
Jun-22

Oct-22

Jun-23

Oct-23
Dec-22

Dec-23
Aug-22

Apr-23

Aug-23

downwards by 2-3% over FY24-25E to reflect a slower-than-anticipated Opex ratio improvement.


Valuation & Recommendation
UJSFB currently trades at 1.5x Sep’25E ABV and we value UJSFB at 1.8x Sep’25E ABV to arrive at Ujjivan SFB SENSEX
a target price of Rs 64, implying an upside of 20% from CMP. We maintain our BUY Source: AceEquity, Axis Securities
recommendation on the stock.
Key Financials (Standalone) Dnyanada Vaidya
(Rs Cr) Q3FY24 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Axis Est. Variance Research Analyst
Email: dnyanada.vaidya@axissecurities.in
Net Interest Income 860 +4.4 +23.4 862 -0.3
PPOP 457 -5.4 +17.6 461 -0.8
Prathamesh Sawant, CFA
Net Profit 300 -8.4 +2.3 295 +1.6 Research Analyst
NNPA (%) 0.2 +8 bps +12 bps 0.2 - Email: prathamesh.sawant@axissecurities.in

RoA (%) - reported 3.1 -50 bps -104 bps 3.0 +7 bps
Source: Company, Axis Research CA Bhavya Shah
Research Associate

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Key Highlights
 Focus on building a granular deposit franchise – UJSFB continues to focus on building a granular retail-
dominated liability franchise. Its recently launched nationwide brand campaign to improve visibility and the launch
of value-added liability products has been received well and started contributing meaningfully. The recently
launched digital FDs have been yielding positive results and the bank is exploring partnerships with aggregators to
improve business volumes. Additionally, the bank has also introduced digital Savings Accounts (SA) thereby
facilitating the digital onboarding of customers and enabling UJSFB to garner SA deposits from beyond catchment
areas. The management has retained its guidance of growing deposits at ~30% CAGR over FY24-26E.

 Individual loan portfolio to steer MFI growth – MFI growth in the group portfolio has been largely driven by new
customer acquisition. Similarly, the growth in the Individual loan portfolio (IL) is being driven by new customer
additions (currently ~18% mix). The bank does not intend to cap the share of new customers sourced from the
open markets in the IL segment. While customers in the IL portfolio were largely graduating customers from group
loans earlier, there has been a shift towards acquiring new customers, who come with an experience with other
lenders and UJSFB will continue to pursue growth by sourcing customers from the open market.

 MSME Growth to pick up in coming quarters – The management expects the MSME portfolio to recover from
the COVID-related stress over the next few quarters. The book sourced in the last 24 months has been behaving
well. The MSME segment has started to show signs of revival and with new product launches and hiring done, the
bank will look to scale up the business. UJSFB has also partnered with Fintechs and has commenced
disbursements.

 Reverse merger on track – The reverse merger with the Holdco. Ujjivan Financial Services is on track and is
likely to be completed by Q4FY24. The reverse merger will be BVPS-accretive and Valuations post the reverse
merger will be attractive.

Key Risks to our Estimates and TP


 The key risk to our estimates remains a slowdown in overall credit growth which could potentially derail our
earnings estimates.

 The scalability of new products and secured book remains a key monitorable.

Change in Estimates
Revised Old % Change

FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E FY24E FY25E FY26E


NII 3,407 4,138 5,076 3,432 4,177 5,014 -0.7 -0.9 -
PBP 1,917 2,318 2,870 2,001 2,393 2,921 -4.2 -3.1 -
Provisions 219 420 566 254 433 555 -13.8 -3.0 -
PAT 1,282 1,420 1,724 1,309 1,470 1,773 -2.1 -3.4 -
Source: Axis Securities

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Results Review

(Rs Cr) Q3FY24 Q3FY23 % YoY Q2FY24 % QoQ 9MFY24 9MFY23 % YoY

Net Interest Income 860 697 23.4 823 4.4 5,912 1,960 201.6
Non-Interest Income 185 139 33.0 189 -2.1 1,319 410 221.6
Operating expenses 587 447 31.4 529 11.1 3,937 1,296 203.8
Staff Cost 314 226 39.2 273 14.8 2,029 667 204.3
Pre provision profits 457 389 17.6 483 -5.4 3,294 1,074 206.6
Provisions and contingencies 63 0 -28695.5 47 34.1 122 -10 -1351.9
PBT 394 389 1.3 436 -9.6 3,172 1,084 192.5
Provision for Tax 94 96 -1.7 109 -13.2 781 264 195.5
PAT 300 293 2.3 328 -8.4 2,391 820 191.6

Business Update
Disbursements 5,675 4,838 17.3 5,749 -1.3 42,979 14,268 201.2
MFI - Group 3,294 3,081 6.9 3,308 -0.4 26,888 9,173 193.1
MFI - Individual 1,029 712 44.5 1,019 1.0 6,842 1,944 252.0
Affordable Housing 595 344 73.0 541 10.0 3,384 952 255.5
MSME 106 167 -36.5 68 55.9 1,122 762 47.2
FIG 379 240 57.9 293 29.4 2,228 600 271.3
Others 272 294 -7.5 520 -47.7 2,261 583 287.8

Gross Advances 27,743 21,896 26.7 26,602 4.3 27,743 21,896 26.7
MFI - Group 15,471 12,823 20.7 15,226 1.6 15,471 12,823 20.7
MFI - Individual 4,304 2,632 63.5 3,925 9.7 4,304 2,632 63.5
FIG 1,435 1,010 42.1 1,304 10.0 1,435 1,010 42.1
Affordable Housing 4,417 3,144 40.5 4,063 8.7 4,417 3,144 40.5
MSME 1,397 1,744 -19.9 1,442 -3.1 1,397 1,744 -19.9
Others 719 543 32.4 642 12.0 719 543 32.4

Cost-Income ratio (%) 56.2 53.5 276 bps 52.2 399 bps 54.3 54.8 -55 bps

Asset Quality
Gross NPA (%) 2.2 3.6 -146 bps 2.4 -17 bps 2.2 3.6 -146 bps
Net NPA (%) 0.2 0.1 12 bps 0.1 8 bps 0.2 0.1 12 bps
PCR (%) 95.0 99.0 -400 bps 96.0 -100 bps 95.0 99.0 -400 bps

Capital Adequacy
CRAR (%) 24.4 26.0 -165 bps 25.2 -83 bps 24.4 26.0 -165 bps
Tier I (%) 22.0 22.8 -87 bps 22.5 -53 bps 22.0 22.8 -87 bps
Tier II (%) 2.4 3.2 -78 bps 2.7 -30 bps 2.4 3.2 -78 bps
Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Financials (Standalone)

Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)


Y/E March FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Interest Income 2,698 3,407 4,138 5,076
Non-Interest Income 589 746 810 919
Total Income 3,287 4,153 4,949 5,995
Operating Expenses 1,802 2,236 2,631 3,124
Pre-Provision Profits 1,485 1,917 2,318 2,870
Provisions 18 219 420 566
PBT 1,467 1,698 1,898 2,305
Tax 367 416 479 581
Profit After Tax 1,100 1,282 1,420 1,724
Source: Company, Axis Securities

Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)


Y/E March FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Equity Share Capital 1,955 1,957 1,957 1,957
ESOPs 51 69 84 99
Preference Capital 200 200 200 200
Reserves & Surplus 2,003 3,112 4,341 5,806
Net Worth 3,958 5,069 6,297 7,763
Deposits 25,538 32,353 41,228 52,303
Borrowings 2,641 3,991 3,905 4,301
Other Liabilities 929 1,139 1,413 1,767
Total Liabilities 33,317 42,821 53,127 66,433

Cash & Bank balances 2,484 2,122 2,704 3,431


Investments 8,510 11,655 14,028 17,273
Loans 21,290 27,715 34,695 43,602
Fixed Assets & Others 1,033 1,328 1,701 2,127
Total Assets 33,317 42,821 53,127 66,433
Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Ratio Analysis (%)
Y/E March FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
VALUATION RATIOS
EPS 5.6 6.6 7.3 8.8
Earnings Growth (%) -335.7 16.4 10.8 21.4
BVPS 20.2 25.9 32.2 39.7
Adj. BVPS 20.2 25.7 31.9 39.2
RoA (%) 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.9
ROAE (%) 33.7 28.4 25.0 24.5
P/E (x) 9.5 8.2 7.4 6.1
P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.4

PROFITABILITY &OPERATING EFFICIENCY


NIM (%) 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.5
Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.2
Cost-Income Ratio (%) 54.8 53.8 53.2 52.1

BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE RATIOS


Loan Growth (%) 30.6 30.2 25.2 25.7
Deposits Growth (%) 39.6 26.7 27.4 26.9
Equity/Assets (%) 6.0 7.3 8.2 8.7
Equity/Loans (%) 18.6 18.3 18.2 17.8
Total Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) 25.8 23.6 22.7 21.5

ASSET QUALITY
Gross NPLs (%) 2.9 2.1 2.1 2.2
Net NPLs (%) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
Coverage Ratio (%) 98.6 93.7 92.1 90.0
Provision/Avg. AUM (%) 0.1 0.9 1.3 1.4

ROAA TREE (on Total Assets)


Net Interest Income 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.5
Non-Interest Income 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.5
Operating Cost 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.2
Provisions 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9
Tax 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0
ROAA 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.9
Leverage (x) 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.5
ROAE 33.7 28.4 25.0 24.5
Source: Company, Axis Securities

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Ujjivan Small Finance BankPrice Chart and Recommendation History

(Rs)

Date Reco TP Research


08-Feb-22 HOLD 20 Result Update
13-May-22 BUY 23 Result Update
27-Jul-22 BUY 26 Result Update
19-Sep-22 BUY 31 Company Update
09-Nov-22 BUY 34 Result Update
03-Feb-23 BUY 37 Result Update
12-May-23 BUY 37 Result Update
12-Jun-23 BUY 45 Result Update
28-Jul-23 BUY 54 Result Update
06-Oct-23 BUY 64 AAA
30-Oct-23 BUY 64 Result Update
25-Jan-24 BUY 64 Result Update

Source: Axis Securities

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About the Analyst

Analyst: Dnyanada Vaidya

Contact Details: dnyanada.vaidya@axissecurites.in

Sector:BFSI

Analyst Bio: Dnyanada Vaidya is MMS (Finance) with over 6 years of research experience in the
Banking/NBFC sector.

About the Analyst

Analyst: Prathamesh Sawant, CFA

Contact Details: prathamesh.sawant@axissecurites.in

Sector:BFSI

Analyst Bio: Prathamesh Sawant is MBA (Finance) and CFA Charter holder with over 7 years of experience
in Equity Research & Valuation.

About the Associate

Associate: CA Bhavya Shah

Contact Details: bhavya1.shah@axissecurities.in

Sector: BFSI

Analyst Bio: Bhavya Shah is Chartered Accountant and CFA level 2 cleared with over 18 months of research
experience in the Banking/NBFC Industry.

Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations,
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DEFINITION OF RATINGS

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12-18 months

BUY More than 10%

HOLD Between 10% and -10%

SELL Less than -10%

NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation

UNDER REVIEW We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events

NO STANCE We do not have any forward-looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock

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NEERAJ Digitally signed by


NEERAJ
CHADAWA CHADAWAR
Date: 2024.01.25
R 08:56:49 +05'30'

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