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40% Superior Asset Quality due to Prudent Lending Practices: As of the end of 9M
2023, NPL ratio stood at 1.21%, representing a 53 basis points increase
20% compared to the end of 2022. However, it remains among the top 3 banks with
the lowest NPL ratio in the industry. VCB also achieves the highest Loan
0% Losses Coverage ratio in the industry (270.1%).
Evaluation & Recommendation:
-20%
10/22 01/23 04/23 07/23 10/23 We project credit growth of VCB to be 18.8% in 2024 thanks to the
VCB VN-Index expected recovery of Vietnam's economy in 2024. Thanks to strong
Overview of the Bank: credit growth, we expect the lending interest rate landscape to experience a
slight increase, while deposit interest rates would rise at a slower pace, we
Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade
(VCB) was established on April 1, 1963. VCB has evolved into
expect that VCB's NIM would be 3.61% in 2024, representing a 14 basis points
a versatile bank, providing customers with a comprehensive increase compared to the end of 2023. In 2024, we expect the pressure of NPL
range of financial services in international trade. The bank to increase as Circular 02/2023/TT-NHNN expires, but the economic recovery
engages in traditional activities, such as capital mobilization, would ease the burden of NPL. Hence, we project the NPL ratio to be 1.10% in
as well as modern banking services, including foreign 2024. Consequently, we expect Net Profit of VCB in 2024 to be VND 37,497
currency and derivative trading, etc. billion (+12.6% YoY).
Using the Residual Income and P/B valuation methods, we determine the fair
price for VCB at VND 87,300 per share. Hence, we recommend Hold for VCB.
Risks:
(1) Interest rate risk; (2) Risk from rising NPLs; (3) Competitive risk; (4) Inflation
risk; (5) Risk from economic downturn;
Since the beginning of the year, VCB has implemented three time of
interest rate reductions for loans to all individual and corporate
customers to support business recovery. Each time of reduction
corresponds to 0.5% per annum. Moreover, VCB has been a pioneering
bank in providing a total accumulated interest support of VND 10,800
billion to customers during the years 2020-2021.
Despite implementing various supportive policies, VCB remains
resilient in difficult economy. In 9M 2023, the real estate market and
corporate bonds experienced a freeze, along with significant interest
rate hikes in 2022, which exerted pressure on the financial
performance of many banks. During this period, the banking industry's
average return on equity (ROE) declined by 3.3%, while ROE of VCB
shrank 80 basis points to 23.2%.
30%
ROE of VCB compare with the industry
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2020 2021 2022 9M 2023
VCB was the highest ROE among the Big 4 banks and ranks in the top
25% of banks with the highest ROE in the industry, thanks to the
following advantages:
1. VCB is the leader in interest rate supporting package but has the
lowest cost of funds in the industry. During the last 12 months, Cost of
funds was 3.51%, benefiting from:
a) Superior CASA ratio. Although CASA ratio declined to 29.5% by the
end of 9M 2023 compared to 2022, it ranks among the top 3 banks
with the highest CASA ratio. This was attributed to the increased
adoption of digital channels by customers, SME customers utilizing
Digibiz packages, the promotion of ecosystem development,
diversification of specialized wholesale funding products, and the
implementation of zero-fee policies. The market interest rate
decreased in H1 2023 would contribute to the recovery of CASA.
b) When it comes to savings deposit sources, VCB consistently holds
an advantageous position in efficient capital mobilization due to its
lowest deposit rate in the industry (averaging around 5.55% in the last
12 months). Furthermore, we observe that the majority of deposits are
concentrated in tenor of less than 6 months (constituting
approximately 85% of total deposits), which minimize Costs of Funds.
NIM, Yield on IEA and Cost of Funds of VCB over the years
8%
6%
3.41%
2.81% 3.13% 2.96% 3.46%
4% 3.22%
2%
0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9M 2023
6%
Median: 6.02%
4%
2%
0%
VCB CTG BID TCB VPB MBB ACB SHB HDB STB VIB TPB MSB OCB SSB LPB
8% Median: 8.25%
6%
4%
2%
0%
VCB BID CTG MBB ACB STB PGB SGB EIB TCB LPB VPB TPB HDB
Loan portfolio
100.0%
75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
Q2 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
Mortgage lending Household lending Corporate lending Others
Loan Losses Coverage ratio, NPL ratio, and Provision for Loan losses expense of VCB
500% 1.6%
1.4%
400%
1.2%
300% 1.0%
0.8%
200% 0.6%
0.4%
100%
0.2%
0% 0.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023
Loan Losses Coverage Ratio (LHS) NPL ratio (RHS) Provision for credit lossess expenses/Gross Loans (RHS)
30,000 1.2%
25,000 1.0%
20,000 0.8%
15,000 0.6%
10,000 0.4%
5,000 0.2%
0 0.0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 9M 2023
Net Profit Provision expense Provision expense % Gross Loans
5.0%
200.0%
4.0%
150.0%
3.0%
100.0%
2.0%
50.0% 1.0%
0.0% 0.0%
BID CTG VCB MBB VPB TCB STB ACB SHB HDB VIB LPB TPB MSB SSB OCB NAB EIB
The bank has maintained its capital buffer ratio, with an Equity-to-
Asset ratio reaching 9.2% at the end of 9M 2023. Moreover, VCB has a
capital buffer equivalent to the industry average. In September 2023,
VCB completed a capital increase of 55.9 trillion VND, representing an
18% increase compared to the end of 2022. This capital injection would
help the bank expand lending, penetrate new markets, and meet capital
requirements for future digital transformation initiatives.
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) at the end of H1 2023 was 10.84%,
higher than the minimum requirement of 8% set by the government.
Strengthening the capital buffer would enable VCB to increase its CAR
in 2023, enhancing its ability to withstand market risks, especially
shocks from the international financial market
CIR
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SHB VPB CTG VCB VIB MBB OCB TCB BID ACB HDB MSB SSB TPB STB
Non-interest income
P/B Method
Book value per share 36,931
LTM industry P/B 3.15x
Residual Income P/B Fair price
Fair price (VND/CP) 116,333
Fair price
80,078 116,333 87,300
(VND/share)
Wieght VND/share
80% 20%
Company Profile
Ratings Definition
Buy = Expected to outperform the local market by >10%
Hold = Expected to in line with the local market by +10%~ -10%
Sell = Expected to underperform the local market by >10%.
Not Rated = The stock is not rated in Phu Hung’s coverage universe or not listed yet.
Performance is defined as 12-month total return (including dividends)
Disclaimer
Phu Hung Securities Corporation does not hold itself responsible for completeness or accuracy of the report. It is not
an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Phu Hung Securities and its affiliates, officers,
employees may or may not have a position in or with respect to the securities mentioned herein. Phu Hung Securities
(or one of its affiliates) may from time to time perform investment banking or other services or solicit investment
banking or other business for any company mentioned in this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report
constitute are based on the assessments of Phu Hung Securities as of this date and are subject to change without
notice.