POLITICAL OPINION POLL NOVEMBER 2021

METHODOLOGY
Dates of Field Work 10TH -17TH NOVEMBER 2021

Sample Size 3152

Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread across
all the 47 counties in Kenya. Sample split was guided by all adults age 18+
proportionate to size as per the per the IEBC register, Nov. 2021.
Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in all the 47 counties of Kenya

Data Collection Methodology Computer Aided Telephone Interview (CATI)

Sampling Error +/- 1.75 % with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Interview Languages English/Swahili

Finance The Survey was funded by the Radio Africa Limited.

 POLL SAMPLE
GENDER Sample % Boosted
Percentage Sample (out Boosted Percentage Sample (out Sample(315
Male 1,469 53% County of Total (%) of 3000) Sample(3152) County of Total (%) of 3000) 2)
Nairobi 11.4% 341 341 Trans Nzoia 1.8% 53 53
Female 1,683 47% Kiambu 5.9% 176 176 Kirinyaga 1.7% 52 52
TOTAL 3,152 100% Nakuru 4.8% 144 144 Bomet 1.7% 50 50
Kakamega 3.8% 114 114 Nyandaua 1.7% 50 50
Meru 3.6% 107 107 Embu 1.5% 46 46
Machakos 3.1% 94 94 Kwale 1.4% 43 43
Mombasa 3.0% 89 89 Nyamira 1.4% 43 43
Muranga 2.9% 87 87 Vihiga 1.4% 42 42
Bungoma 2.9% 87 87 Baringo 1.2% 37 37
Kisii 2.9% 86 86 Laikipia 1.2% 37 37
Age Group Sample % Kisumu 2.8% 83 83 Turkana 1.1% 32 35
Kilifi 2.6% 78 78 Tharaka Nithi 1.1% 32 35
18-24 541 Homa Bay 2.4% 73 73 West Pokot 1.0% 29 35
17% Kitui 2.4% 71 71 Mandera 1.0% 29 35
25-35 1,055 Uasin Gishu 2.3% 70 70 Elgeyo Marakwet 0.9% 28 35
33% Siaya 2.3% 69 69 Garissa 0.9% 27 35
36-45 637 Nyeri 2.3% 68 68 Wajir 0.9% 26 35
20% Makueni 2.1% 64 64 Taita Taveta 0.8% 24 35
46-55 473 Kajiado 2.1% 63 63 Marsabit 0.7% 22 35
15% Migori 2.0% 61 61 Tana River 0.6% 18 35
Kericho 1.9% 58 58 Samburu 0.4% 13 35
Over 55 446
14% Busia
Nandi
1.8%
1.8%
54
54
54 Isiolo
54 Lamu
0.4%
0.4%
12
11
35
35
Narok 1.8% 53 53 ***Boosted Sample
 RESPONDENTS’ EDUCATION LEVEL
RESPONDENTS’ EDUCATION
32.1%
LEVEL

16.5% 16.4%
13.0%
7.6% 9.6%
2.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
None Pre-Primary Primary Secondary College Diploma Degree Masters PhD Refused to
Certificate Answer

Education Level TOTAL Central Coast Lower Eastern Nairobi North Eastern North Rift Nyanza South Rift Upper Eastern Western
None 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 4.8% 2.0% 1.0% 1.8% 3.0% 3.5%
Pre-Primary 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 1.2% 3.8% 3.5%
Primary 13.0% 9.8% 16.4% 15.4% 9.9% 25.7% 10.3% 8.7% 18.6% 12.5% 19.3%
Secondary 32.1% 26.6% 33.8% 39.7% 25.0% 36.2% 30.7% 35.4% 43.1% 33.6% 31.9%
College Certificate 16.5% 16.9% 16.7% 15.4% 22.7% 9.5% 19.5% 14.2% 14.4% 14.7% 14.0%
Diploma 16.4% 18.9% 16.1% 14.1% 19.6% 7.6% 14.9% 18.8% 9.6% 18.9% 12.6%
Degree 7.6% 12.0% 2.5% 6.0% 13.9% 0.0% 4.3% 8.4% 4.8% 6.4% 5.8%
Masters 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Phd 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Refused to Answer 9.6% 10.4% 10.4% 5.6% 4.5% 16.2% 16.4% 10.4% 6.6% 6.4% 9.1%
Table of Contents
Problems Facing Kenya
We take a look at the most pressing issues facing the country that
they would like the national government to prioritize solving.
We also look at the Economic development ratings by the current
Government.
Politics
We measure the popularity of the potential Presidential candidates
as well as probe on the likelihood of the registered voters in the
country to participate in next year’s general election. Party
affiliation frequency is also tracked.
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING THE COUNTRY
78% High cost of living

62% Unemployment

15% Poor healthcare

9% Food insecurity

8% Increased crime
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY DEMOGRAPHICS
Most Pressing Issues TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 55+
High cost of living 78% 78% 79% 76% 77% 80% 80% 81%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 62% 62% 61% 64% 66% 64% 57% 52%
Poor health care 15% 15% 16% 13% 15% 15% 16% 19%
Food insecurity 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 12% 11%
Security: Increased crime 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Poor quality education 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 9% 7% 7%
Corruption 7% 7% 7% 10% 6% 7% 6% 5%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 5%
Water shortage 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Drought 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2%
Poor roads 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Land issues (title deeds) 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY REGION
Upper Lower South North North
Most Pressing Issues TOTAL Nairobi Central Western Eastern Eastern Coast Nyanza Rift Rift Eastern
High cost of living 78% 78% 80% 77% 74% 83% 83% 73% 91% 78% 70%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 62% 66% 63% 57% 53% 65% 64% 70% 52% 60% 58%
Poor health care 15% 14% 14% 17% 20% 13% 17% 15% 17% 14% 13%
Food insecurity 9% 8% 8% 8% 15% 5% 10% 7% 8% 14% 12%
Security: Increased crime 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 13%
Poor quality education 8% 5% 8% 8% 11% 5% 7% 8% 9% 7% 7%
Corruption 7% 9% 8% 10% 8% 5% 4% 7% 7% 3% 4%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 0% 2% 6% 1% 9% 0%
Water shortage 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6%
Drought 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 5% 2% 1% 2% 3% 10%
Poor roads 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Land issues (title deeds) 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%

*** See the glossary for regions definition

 TOP PROBLEMS FACING YOUR COUNTY BY REGION
Upper Lower South North North
Most Pressing issue in county TOTAL Nairobi Central Western Eastern Eastern Coast Nyanza Rift Rift Eastern
High cost of living 71% 74% 69% 71% 66% 79% 71% 68% 84% 66% 73%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 52% 51% 58% 46% 51% 56% 50% 51% 53% 46% 43%
Poor health care 27% 29% 29% 28% 25% 34% 34% 19% 34% 20% 28%
Corruption 22% 21% 24% 20% 22% 10% 20% 29% 14% 32% 9%
Water shortage 20% 27% 14% 17% 23% 34% 19% 16% 19% 17% 47%
Security: Increased crime 20% 22% 19% 19% 19% 10% 22% 21% 17% 25% 19%
Poor roads 19% 15% 17% 25% 25% 16% 18% 25% 17% 9% 18%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 13% 7% 13% 19% 11% 9% 13% 20% 8% 15% 9%
Food insecurity 13% 14% 12% 11% 14% 12% 14% 9% 9% 19% 12%
Poor quality education 13% 10% 12% 13% 15% 7% 11% 17% 11% 17% 8%
Drought 8% 3% 6% 6% 8% 17% 8% 1% 16% 7% 31%
Land issues (title deeds) 5% 2% 7% 5% 2% 5% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 4% 5% 6% 4% 2% 1% 3% 5% 2% 7% 1%
Inequality in youth rights 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 3% 3% 1% 2% 0%
Devolution 2% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0%
Ethnic tension 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2%
Gender inequality 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0%
Security: Terrorism 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0%
POLITICS &
ELECTIONS
 PAST VOTING BEHAVIOR
Have you ever voted before? How often would you say you vote?
No 49%
5%
35%

10%
Yes 5%
2%
95%
Always Nearly always Part of the time Seldom Never

Have you
ever voted
before? Total 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 Over 55
Yes 95% 77% 98% 99% 99% 99%
No 5% 23% 2% 1% 1% 1%
ARE YOU A REGISTERED VOTER?
Are you a registered voter? VOTERS REGISTRATION BY REGION
No
5%
Registered Voters
Regions Yes No
South Rift 99% 1%
Yes Lower Eastern 98% 2%
95% Nairobi 97% 3%
Central 97% 3%
Grand Total 95% 5%
North Eastern 95% 5%
Upper Eastern 95% 5%
North Rift 95% 5%
Western 94% 6%
Coast 94% 6%
Nyanza 92% 8%
 LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING ON BY-ELECTION
How likely are you to vote in the
2022 General elections?
Definitely Probably will Probably will Definitely will
REGIONS will vote vote not vote not vote
Definitely will vote 56% Total 56% 36% 4% 3%
Lower Eastern 74% 18% 4% 4%
Central 59% 36% 3% 2%
Probably will vote 36% North Rift 59% 37% 2% 2%
Coast 57% 33% 6% 4%
Nyanza 55% 37% 6% 3%
Probably will not vote 4% Western 54% 38% 4% 4%
North Eastern 52% 30% 10% 8%
Nairobi 52% 40% 4% 4%
Definitely will not vote 3% South Rift 51% 42% 4% 3%
Upper Eastern 44% 46% 7% 3%
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD
YOU VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT?
Won't Vote, 3.1%
Undecided, 14.0%

Others, 3.5%
Gideon Moi, 0.9% William Ruto, 45.6%
Kalonzo Musyoka, 1.9%
Musalia Mudavadi, 2.4%

Raila Odinga, 28.6%

 IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU
VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT (TREND) Jan-2021 Jul-2021 Nov-2021

45.6%
42.7%

38.8%

28.6%

21.0%
19.9%

14.2% 14.8%
14.0%

8.1%
5.2% 5.5%
3.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1%
1.8% 2.4% 1.8% 1.9%
0.9% 0.7% 1.4%
0.5%

William Ruto Raila Odinga Gideon Moi Musalia Mudavadi Kalonzo Musyoka Others Undecided Won't Vote
 If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By Demographics)

Candidates Total Male Female 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 55+

William Ruto 45.6% 46.5% 44.5% 43.9% 47.7% 42.3% 50.7% 42.1%
Raila Odinga 28.6% 30.1% 26.8% 26.0% 27.6% 32.3% 28.7% 28.5%
Musalia Mudavadi 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%
Kalonzo Musyoka 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.3%
Gideon Moi 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4%
Others 3.5% 3.3% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 2.6% 4.3%
Undecided 14.0% 12.6% 15.8% 16.4% 13.9% 13.8% 10.7% 15.3%
Won't Vote 3.1% 2.4% 3.9% 7.0% 1.9% 2.6% 1.7% 3.4%
If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By Regions)
Upper Lower South North
Candidates Total Central Nyanza Nairobi North Rift Western Coast Eastern Eastern Rift Eastern

William Ruto 45.6% 58.7% 25.5% 42.0% 63.5% 37.7% 42.9% 52.1% 31.6% 54.5% 33.3%

Raila Odinga 28.6% 18.1% 58.6% 29.0% 16.7% 29.5% 34.1% 22.6% 23.9% 23.4% 24.8%

Musalia Mudavadi 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 11.7% 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 2.4% 0.0%

Kalonzo Musyoka 1.9% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 1.1% 17.9% 0.6% 0.0%

Gideon Moi 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 5.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0%

Others 3.5% 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 1.4% 3.2% 4.1% 3.0% 6.4% 1.2% 9.5%

Undecided 14.0% 14.6% 9.9% 19.3% 9.8% 14.3% 13.9% 14.7% 13.2% 13.8% 23.8%

Won't Vote 3.1% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 4.7% 3.6% 8.6%
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President,
who do you think will win?
Refused to Answer, 2.1% Won't Vote, 1.9%

Others, 1.3% Can't tell, 11.3%

Kalonzo Musyoka, 0.7%

Musalia Mudavadi, 1.4%

William Ruto, 50.5%

Raila Odinga, 30.9%
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President, who do
you think will win? (By Demographics)

CANDIDATES Total Male Female 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 55+

William Ruto 50.5% 51.6% 49.1% 49.3% 52.0% 49.3% 52.2% 48.1%

Raila Odinga 30.9% 31.8% 29.8% 27.7% 29.2% 34.6% 31.0% 33.0%

Musalia Mudavadi 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4%

Kalonzo Musyoka 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%

Others 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7%

Can't tell 11.3% 10.2% 12.5% 12.5% 11.0% 10.7% 10.1% 12.5%

Refused to Answer 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 2.1% 2.5%

Won't Vote 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 4.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President, who do
you think will win? (By Regions)
Lower North South Upper
CANDIDATES Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi Eastern North Rift Nyanza Rift Eastern Western

William Ruto 50.5% 62.8% 43.2% 47.9% 49.4% 40.0% 65.5% 28.0% 59.3% 55.5% 44.7%

Raila Odinga 30.9% 21.2% 38.2% 29.5% 29.3% 30.5% 19.3% 57.1% 24.0% 24.2% 33.0%

Musalia Mudavadi 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.8% 1.9% 6.4%

Kalonzo Musyoka 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 6.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Others 1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 2.3%

Can't tell 11.3% 10.8% 10.4% 9.8% 15.1% 22.9% 10.3% 8.4% 10.8% 12.8% 9.9%

Refused to Answer 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 1.1% 2.9% 1.1% 3.6% 2.4% 3.4% 0.9%

Won't Vote 1.9% 1.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.6%
DYNASTY POLITICS
v OLD DYNASTIES
A minority (18%) supports the old dynasties in lead up to 2022.
v NEW POLTICIANS
A majority, 72%, feels the country needs a new generation of leaders leading to 2022 general
elections

Do you support the old dynasties or want to see

new generation of leaders leading to 2022?

72.2%
67.9%
67.7%

63.7%

76.1%
25.2%
21.8%

18.0%
10.3%

13.5%
15.2%

10.5%

11.1%

16.9%

9.8%
Support the old dynasty (like Uhuru, Raila, Want to see new generation leaders (Mutua, Not Sure
Gideon etc) Oparanya, Matiang’I Joho, Ruto etc)
Jul-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 Jul-2021 Nov-2021
 REGIONAL DYNASTY SUPPORT
Support the old Want to see new
REGION Not Sure
dynasty leaders generation leaders
Total 18.0% 72.2% 9.8%
Central 28.9% 55.7% 15.4%
Coast 22.7% 64.0% 13.2%
Lower Eastern 20.2% 63.5% 16.4%
Nairobi 20.0% 71.4% 8.6%
North Eastern 15.9% 73.6% 10.5%
North Rift 15.9% 78.0% 6.1%
Nyanza 14.7% 79.6% 5.7%
South Rift 14.5% 80.8% 4.7%
Upper Eastern 11.7% 79.6% 8.7%
Western 10.8% 83.8% 5.4%
vSupport for new generation is strong among all the regions with Western & South Rift
Regions having the strongest support for new generation leaders.
v Support for the old dynasty leaders is strongest in Central.
v No region in the country has a majority supporting old dynasty leaders
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU CLOSEST TO TO?
Don't Know
0%

None United Democratic

31% Alliance (UDA)
32%

Others
3%
ANC
1%
WIPER
2%
Jubilee Party
9%
ODM
22%
 WHO IN YOUR OPINION WOULD MAKE THE BEST
PRESIDENT FOR KENYA?
Refused to Answer, 1.7%
Won't Vote, 1.7%

None, 0.8%
Can't tell, 13.1%

Others, 3.4%

William Ruto, 44.6%

Alfred Mutua, 0.8%

Kivutha Kibwana, 1.0%

Kalonzo Musyoka, 1.8%

Raila Odinga, 28.1%

Musalia Mudavadi, 2.9%

 GLOSSARY
REGIONS DEFINITION

REGIONS COUNTIES
Central Kiambu, Nakuru, Murang'a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia
Nairobi Nairobi
Western Kakamega, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Busia, Vihiga
Upper Eastern Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Marsabit, Isiolo
Lower Eastern Machakos, Kitui, Makueni
Coast Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Lamu
South Rift Kajiado, Narok, Bomet
Nyanza Kisumu, Kisii, Homa Bay, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira
North Rift Uasin Gishu, Turkana, Kericho, Nandi, Baringo, West Pokot, Samburu, Elgeyo/Marakwet
North Eastern Wajir, Garissa, Mandera