FULLY WORKED SOLUTIONS

CHAPTER

14 PROBABILITY

Focus on EXAM 14
6! 6 (a) n = 12, r = 2
1 Number of different arrangements =
3! 2!
(b) Number of diagonal = 12C2 - 12
= 60
= 66 - 12
Number of arrangements with Y in the
5! = 54
original position =
3! 2! (c) Number of triangles formed = 12C3

= 10
= 220

2 7C3 = 35 (d) Number of ∆ with 2 sides in common

= 12
3 (a) Number of ways if A = B Number of ∆ with 1 side in common

6
C3 ÷ 2 = 20 ÷ 2 = 12C1 × 8C1
= 10 = 96
(b) Number of ways if A > B
Number of ∆ with no side in common

= 220 - 12 - 96
6
C1 + 6C2 = 6 + 15
= 112
= 21
7 (a) 212 = 4096
4 (a) Number of ways = 6!(3!)
= 4320 12!

(b) = 792
7 ! 5!
(b) Number of ways = 5!(6P3)


= 14 400 12!
(c) 4096 -
= 3172
6 !6 !
5 Number of different numbers
formed = 4P1 + 4P2 + 4P3 + 4P4 8 (a) Number of matches = 32 + 16 + 8 + 4
= 64 +2+1
Number of even numbers = 63
formed = 1 + 3 + 3P2 + 3P3
(b) 6 matches
=1+3+6+6
(c) 64 teams play 1st round
= 16
32 teams plays 2nd round
Number of odd numbers
16 teams plays 3rd round
formed = 64 - 16
∴16 teams play at least 3 matches.

= 48

(d) 16 teams

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Chapter 14.indd 1 7/21/2017 12:40:35 PM

 9 (a) If the first and last digits are zeros, (ii) P(B) = Probability of 1 or 6
8! 1
the number of blocks = =
2 !6 ! 3
= 28 P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) –
P(A ∩ B)

If the first and last digits are ones, 1 1 1
8!
= + -
the number of blocks = 3 3 6
4! 4!
1
= 70 =
2
Total = 28 + 70
1
= 98 P(A ∩ B )
(iii) P(A|B) = = 6
(b) 5!( C3) = 2400
6
1
P(B )
3
5!
10 Number of ways = 1
3! 2!
=

= 10 2

Yes, number of ways is the same. P(B ∩ A′ )
(iv) P(B|A′) =
P(A′ )
11 R = red taxi
 Y = yellow taxi P(B ∩ A′ ) + P(B ∩ A) = P(B)
E = empty 1 1
P(B ∩ A′ ) = -
RR EE YYYY 3 6
Two R parked together 1
7! =
= 105 6
2! 4 !
P(A′ ) = 1 - P(A)
Alternative method:
2
7 ways for the 2 red taxis =
3
6!
7× = 105 1
2! 4 ! 1
P(B|A′ ) = 6 =
12 (a) Score 5: 5, 1 + 4 2 4
Score 6: 1 + 5 1 3
Score 7: 6 + 1, 1 + 6 6=1
Score 8: 6 + 2 =
2 4
Score 9: 6 + 3 3
1 1 1 13 (a) Probability A wins on the second
P(A) = + ×6= draw = P(RWR)
6 36 3
3 4 3
(b) (i) P(A ∩ B) = Probability score 5, 6, =× ×
8 7 6
7, 8 and 9 with 2 throws
1 3
= ×6 =
36 28
1 (b) A = A wins on the second draw

=
6
B = B win on the second draw

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 P(A) = P(RRR) 1
14 (a)
3 2 1 8
= × ×
8 7 6 1
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1
(b) × × × × × × =
= 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 8
56
P(B) = P(RRWR)
1
15 (a) 4 C2 =
50
3 2 5 1
= × × ×

8 7 6 5 3
C2 3 C1 × 17C1 6 + 51

(b) 25
+ 25 =
1 C2 C2 300
=
56 9
=
P(A win | winning players wins on
50
second draw)
1
3
C2 3 C1 × 17C1 3 + 51

(c) 20
+ 20 =
C2 C2 190
= 56
1 1 27
+ =
56 56 95
1
= 20
C2 190
2
(d) =
20
C2 + C1 + C1 190 + 100
20 5

2 5 4 19
(c) P(R | RWW) =
× × =
7 6 5 29
40
= 16 (a) Probability all 3 shots hit = 0.2 × 0.3
120
× 0.4
5 4 2
P(R | WWR) = × × = 0.024
7 6 5
40 (b) Probability only C hits = 0.8 × 0.7 × 0.4
=
210 = 0.224
5 4 3
P(R | WWW) =
× × (c) Probability at least one
7 6 5 hit = 1 - 0.8 × 0.7 × 0.6
60 = 1 - 0.336
=
210 = 0.664
40 + 40 + 60
Probability =

210
(d) Probability only 2 shots hit
= 0.2 × 0.3 × 0.6 + 0.2 × 0.7 × 0.4 +
140
= 0.8 × 0.3 × 0.4
210
= 0.036 + 0.056 + 0.096
2
= = 0.188
3

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Chapter 14.indd 3 7/21/2017 12:40:53 PM

 1 1  1
17 (a) Given P(A) = , P(A|B) = , y = 5 

3 5  8
1 5
P(A′ ∩ B′ ) =
=
6 8
5
A ′∩ B ′ P(B) =
8
A∩B′ A∩B A′∩B P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
1 5 1
A B = + +
3 8 8
P(A′ ∩ B) + P(A′ ∩ B′ ) = P(A′ ) 5
=
6
= 1 - P(A)
1 18 (a) P(4) = P(   ) P(G4) + P(6) P(G2)
=1-
3 5 1 1 1
= × + ×
2 6 6 6 6
=
3 6
=
2 36
P(A′ ∩ B) = - P(A′ ∩ B′ )
3 P(3) = P(   ) P(G3)
2 1 5 1
= - = ×
3 6 6 6
1 5
= =
2 36
P(2) = P(   ) P(G2) + P(6) P(G1)

P(A ∩ B )
(b) P(A|B) =
5 1 1 1
P(B ) = × + ×
6 6 6 6
1
= 6
5 =
36
P(A ∩ B) = x, P(B) = y

x 1 P(1) = P(   ) P(G1)


= ⇒ y = 5x
y 5 5 1
= ×
P(B) = P(A ∩ B) + P(A′ ∩ B)
6 6
1 5
y = x +
=
2 36
1 6 5 6 5
5x = x +
P(4 or less) =
+ + +
2 36 36 36 36
1 22
4x =
=
2 36
1 11
x =
= (Shown)
8 18

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 11 0.7425
(b) P(> 4) = 1 -
P(G|P) =

18 0.7475

7 = 0.993
=
18
20 Number of different results = 34
5 2
P (  ∩ > 4) = × = 81
6 6
1
5 Probability =
= 81
18
P( 6 ∩ > 4) 1

P(   | > 4) = 21 (a) P(Choose 1st) =
P(> 4) 18
5
P(Choose 5th)
= 18 17 16 15 14 1
7
=
× × × ×
18 17 16 15 14
18 1
5 =
= 18
7 P(Choose last)
19 G = pregnant 17 16 1
= × × …. × × 1
P = test is positive
18 17 2
P(P| ) = 0.02
1
=
18
P(P|G ) = 0.99

P(G ) = 0.75, P(  ) = 0.25

(b) Draw first
P( P ∩ G ) 22 I = intruder, A = system A sounds
P(P|  ) =

P(G ) B = system B sounds
P(P ∩  ) = P(P|  ) P(  )
P(A|I ) = 0.9
= (0.02)(0.25)
P(B|I ) = 0.95
= 0.005
P(A|I′ ) = 0.2
P( P ∩ G )
P(P|G) = P(B|I′ ) = 0.1
P(G )
Probability = P(A|I) P(B|I)
P(P ∩ G) = P(P|G) P(G)
= (0.9) (0.95)
= (0.99)(0.75)
= 0.855
= 0.7425
P(A′|I ) = 1 - 0.9
P(G ∩ P )
P(G|P) = = 0.1
P( P )
P(B′|I ) = 1 - 0.95

P(P) = P(G ∩ P) + P(  ∩ P)
= 0.05

= 0.7425 + 0.005
P(A′|I ) P(B′|I ) = (0.1)(0.05)

= 0.7475

= 0.005

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Chapter 14.indd 5 7/21/2017 12:40:58 PM

 Probability at least one systems sounds 25 (a) The total number of ways of selecting
an alarm = 1 - 0.005 4 participants from 35 people in the
= 0.995  35
group is   .
 4
23 Probability a buyer decides to give a deposit
The number of ways of selecting
= probability give a deposit on his visit 3 doctors and 1 engineer
+ probability give a deposit on his
second visit  20   15 
=  × 
= 0.4 + (0.6)(0.65)  3  1
= 0.79
Probability of selecting 4 participants
such that there are three doctors
24 Let S = subscribe
 20 15
S′ = do not subscribe  3  ×  1 
U = use more than 5 times =
 35
U′ = do not use  4 
Given that P(S) = 0.4, P(U′|S) = 0.05,
P(U|S) = 0.2 1140 × 15
=
52 360

(a) Probability that a school subscribes = 0.3266 ( 4 s.f.)
to Channel EDU and never uses the
broadcast is
(b) First method
P(S ∩ U′) = P(U′ ∩ S).
A = 2 women are selected


By the conditional probability formula, B = 2 women doctors are selected

P (U ′ ∩ S )
P (U ′ | S ) = 17 18
P (S )  2  ×  2 
P (U ′ ∩ S ) P ( A) =
0.5 =  35
0.4  4 
∴ P (U ′ ∩ S ) = (0.5)(0.4 )
12 18
= 0.2  2  ×  2 
P ( B ∩ A) =

(b) Probability that a school subscribes  35
to Channel EDU and uses the  4 
broadcast is
P ( B ∩ A)
P(S ∩ U) = P(U ∩ S).
P ( B | A) =

By the conditional probability formula, P ( A)
P (U ∩ S ) 0.1929
P (U | S ) = =
P (S ) 0.3974
= 0.485
P (U ∩ S )
0.2 =
Second method
0.4
∴ P (U ∩ S ) = (0.2)(0.4 )
Given that two women are selected, we
have the three following cases.
= 0.8

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Chapter 14.indd 6 7/21/2017 12:41:05 PM


[Note that two other selected participants
(b) Percentage of ripe fruits which are
are men in all 3 cases.] mangoes

Number of ways of selected two women 0.4 × 0.7

= × 100%
 18   17 
and two men =   ×   .
( 0.4 × 0.7 ) + ( 0.6 × 0.6 )
 2  2 0.28
= × 100%
0.64

Case 1: Both are women doctors, number
= 43.75%
 12 
of ways =   = 66.
 2 27 (a)

Case 2: Both are women engineers, 0.15 0.1 0.75
 5 Ali asks Ali Ali
number of ways =   = 10. for help answers answers
 2 wrongly correctly

Case 3: One woman engineer and one
0.5 0.5
 12   5  Ali Ali
women doctor =   ×   = 60. chooses chooses
 1   1 wrongly correctly

Case 1 + Case 2 + Case 3 = 66 + 10 + 60

= 136 0.425
0.7
Ali ask

Probability that two women doctors are Audience
Ali answers
correctly
selected given that two women are selected and they himself
answer
66 correctly
= = 0.485
136

(b) Probability the first question is
26 Ripe answered correctly = 0.75 + 0.15 ×
0.7 0.5 = 0.825
Mangoes

(c) Probability Ali answers two questions
0.4 0.3 himself correctly = 075 × 0.75 = 0.5625
Not ripe

(d) Probability Ali answer one questions
himself correct and one by asking for
Ripe help = (0.75 × 0.15 × 0.5) × 2 = 0.1125
0.6 0.6

(e) Probability Ali correctly by asking for
Papayas
help on both questions
0.4 = 015 × 0.5 × 0.15 × 0.85 = 0.00956

Not ripe

Probability he answers both questions
correctly

(a) Percentage of fruits that are ripe = 0.5625 + 0.1125 + 0.00956 = 0.685

=  ( 0.4 × 0.7 ) + ( 0.6 × 0.6 )  × 100%

= 64%

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 28 (a) Blue - B, n( B) = 3  P ( 4 red 1 green )

Red - R, n( R ) = 4  n(S) = 12 P ( 4 red ∩ 1 green )
=
Green - G, n( G ) = 5 P (1 green )
 ( 4C4 × 5C1 × 3C1) + ( 4C4 × 5C2 ) 
P ( 1 green )  12 
C6
= P( All possible outcomes) =
131
- P( no green)
132
= 1 - P( All are either blue or red)
7 25
C = or 0.02726
= 1 - 12 6 917
C6
1
= 1-
132
131
=
132

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