Alpha 0.

3 Alpha

Periode Demand Forecast Error Periode

1 10 1
2 18 - 10 8.00 2
3 29 Ft = 10 + 0.3 (18-10) 12.4 16.60 3
4 15 Ft = 12.4 + 0.3 (29-12.4) 17.4 -2.38 4
5 30 Ft = 17.4 + 0.3 (15-17.4) 16.7 13.33 5
6 12 Ft = 16.7 + 0.3 (30-16.7) 20.7 -8.67 6
7 16 Ft = 20.7 + 0.3 (12-20.7) 18.1 -2.07 7
8 Ft = 18.1 + 0.3 (16-18.1) 17.4 8

30

25

20

Alpha 0.3
15
Alpha 0.6
Alpha 0.8
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 0.6 Alpha 0.8

Demand Forecast Error Periode Demand Forecast Error

10 1 10
18 10 8.00 2 18 10 8.00
29 14.8 14.20 3 29 16.4 12.60
15 23.3 -8.32 4 15 26.5 -11.48
30 18.3 11.67 5 30 17.3 12.70
12 25.3 -13.33 6 12 27.5 -15.46
16 17.3 -1.33 7 16 15.1 0.91
16.5 8 15.8
Alpha 0.3
Beta 0.2

Periode Demand Exponential Smoothing

1 10 - -
2 18 - 10.00
3 29 Ft = 0.3 (18) +(1 - 0.3) (10 + 0) 12.40
4 15 Ft = 0.3 (29) +(1 - 0.3) (12.40 + 0.48) 17.72
5 30 Ft = 0.3 (15) +(1 - 0.3) (17.72 + 1.45) 17.91
6 12 Ft = 0.3 (30) +(1 - 0.3) (17.91 + 1.20) 22.38
7 16 Ft = 0.3 (12) +(1 - 0.3) (22.38 + 1.85) 20.56
8 Ft = 0.3 (16) +(1 - 0.3) (20.56 + 1.12) 19.97
9
10
11
12

Forecast
30

25

20
Forecast
15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Trend Forecast Error
- - - -
- 0 10.00 8.00
Tt = 0.2 (12.40-10) + (1-0.2)(0) 0.48 12.88 16.12
Tt = 0.2 (17.72-12.40) + (1-0.2)(0.48) 1.45 19.16 -4.16
Tt = 0.2 (17.91-17.72) + (1-0.2)(1.45) 1.20 19.11 10.89
Tt = 0.2 (22.38-17.91) + (1-0.2)(1.20) 1.85 24.23 -12.23
Tt = 0.2 (20.56-22.38) + (1-0.2)(1.85) 1.12 21.68 -5.68
Tt = 0.2 (19.97-20.56) + (1-0.2)(1.12) 0.78 20.75
22.30
23.08
23.86
24.63

Forecast

1 12
Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.1
Gamma 0.5

Periode Demand E.S.

1 155
2 180
2000
3 260
4 560
1 160 160 / 0.54 298.06
2 185 (0.2*(185/0.62))+((1-0.2)*(298.06+9.31)) 305.26
2001
3 270 311.46
4 600 318.09
1 165 322.82
2 190 326.64
2002
3 280 330.90
4 635 337.05
1 172 341.13
2 226 354.04
2003
3 329 365.36
4 721 374.60
1
2
2004
3
4
1
2
2005
3
4
 Trend Seasonal
155 / ( (155+180+260+560) / 4) 0.54
180 / ( (155+180+260+560) / 4) 0.62
260 / ( (155+180+260+560) / 4) 0.90
560 / ( (155+180+260+560) / 4) 1.94
298.06 - (560 / 1.94) 9.31 0.5 * (160/298.06) + (1-0.5) * (0.54) 0.54
0.1 * (305.26 - 298.06) + (1-0.1) * (9.31) 9.10 0.61
8.81 0.88
8.59 1.91
8.21 0.52
7.77 0.60
7.42 0.86
7.29 1.90
6.97 0.51
7.56 0.62
7.94 0.88
8.07 1.91
 Forecast Error

(298.06+9.31)*0.62 191.61 -6.61

283.06 -13.06
621.13 -21.13
175.36 -10.36
203.49 -13.49
295.51 -15.51
647.15 -12.15
180.42 -8.42
208.23 17.77
312.76 16.24
708.67 12.33 P
196.72 1
241.58 2
352.03 3
777.77 4
213.32 5
261.54 6
380.52 7
839.47 8