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    Vedank Parashar
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    4 views6 pages

    Time Series

    Uploaded by

    Vedank Parashar

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 6

    4 QTR MOVING CENTERED 4 QTR

    AVG. MOVING AVG.


    YEAR QTR DEMAND
    2004 Q1 48

    Q2 35
    39
    Q3 43 37.38
    35.75
    Q4 30 34.75
    33.75
    2005 Q1 35 32.75
    31.75
    Q2 27 31.00
    30.25
    Q3 35 29.88
    29.5
    Q4 24 28.75
    28
    2006 Q1 32 27.00
    26
    Q2 21 25.13
    24.25
    Q3 27

    Q4 17
    YEAR QTR DEMAND
    2004 Q1 48
    Q2 35
    Q3 43
    Q4 30
    2005 Q1 35
    Q2 27
    Q3 35
    Q4 24
    2006 Q1 32
    Q2 21
    Q3 27
    Q4 17
    Desosonalised
    Year Quarter Attendan
    ce (‘000)
    4-QMA C-4QMA SF SI Demand x xy
    2004 Qtr 1 48 1.13 42.49 1 42.49

    Qtr 2 35 0.86 40.91 2 81.83


    39.00
    Qtr 3 43 37.38 1.15 1.16 36.95 3 110.84
    35.75
    Qtr 4 30 34.75 0.86 0.85 35.25 4 141.00
    33.75
    2005 Qtr 1 35 32.75 1.07 1.13 30.98 5 154.91
    31.75
    Qtr 2 27 31.00 0.87 0.86 31.56 6 189.38
    30.25
    Qtr 3 35 29.88 1.17 1.16 30.07 7 210.51
    29.50
    Qtr 4 24 28.75 0.83 0.85 28.20 8 225.59
    28.00
    2006 Qtr 1 32 27.00 1.19 1.13 28.33 9 254.95
    26.00
    Qtr 2 21 25.13 0.84 0.86 24.55 10 245.49
    24.25
    Qtr 3 27 1.16 23.20 11 255.20

    Qtr 4 17 0.85 19.97 12 239.69

    372.47 78.00 2151.88

    Calculation for Seasonal Indicies


    year Quarters
    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
    02-03 1.15 0.86
    03-04 1.07 0.87 1.17 0.83
    04-05 1.19 0.84

    Avg SI 1.13 0.85 1.16 0.85 3.9904089


    Adj SI 1.13 0.86 1.16 0.85 4 1.0024035

    ( 372.47 = 12.00 a + 78.00


    ( 2151.88 = 78.00 a + 650.00
    29052.66 = 936.00 a + 6084.00
    25822.52 = 936.00 a + 7800.00

    -3230.13 = 0.00 a + 1716.00

    Therefore b = -1.88
    Therefore a = 43.27

    Therefore y = 43.27 + -1.88 x

    Forecast for the next four Quarter are

    x yt si Forecast
    13.00 18.80 1.13 21.24
    14.00 16.92 0.86 14.48
    15.00 15.04 1.16 17.50
    16.00 13.16 0.85 11.20
    x2 Trend Seasonal Forecast Error Abs Dev Square Dev.
    1.00 41.39 1.13 46.76 1.24 1.24 1.54

    4.00 39.51 0.86 33.80 1.20 1.20 1.44

    9.00 37.63 1.16 43.79 -0.79 0.79 0.63

    16.00 35.75 0.85 30.42 -0.42 0.42 0.18

    25.00 33.86 1.13 38.25 -3.25 3.25 10.58

    36.00 31.98 0.86 27.36 -0.36 0.36 0.13

    49.00 30.10 1.16 35.03 -0.03 0.03 0.00

    64.00 28.22 0.85 24.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00

    81.00 26.33 1.13 29.75 2.25 2.25 5.07

    100.00 24.45 0.86 20.92 0.08 0.08 0.01

    121.00 22.57 1.16 26.27 0.73 0.73 0.54

    144.00 20.69 0.85 17.61 -0.61 0.61 0.37


    10.99 20.49
    650.00
    MAD 0.92 1.71

    b ) 78.00
    b ) 12.00
    b
    b

    equation of straight line

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