How Technology is

Changing the Business Landscape

to Face the Next Normal

Contactless but Connected

Electrified but Sustainable
DEAN, PROF. K. FUKUYO, YAMAGUCHI UNIV.

THE 6TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT IN EMERGING MARKETS (ICMEM) 2021

Introduction
We define management of technology (MOT) as
“the effective use of technology in management.”

From this standpoint, we discuss “How Technology

is Changing the Business Landscape to Face the
Next Normal”

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 2

The next normal and the
business landscape
I will divide the topic into two subtopics
The next normal
◦ First, what do we expect the next normal to be?
The business landscape
◦ Second, what will people need under the next normal?
◦ And what kind of business and technology will be
required to meet the needs of the people?

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 3

The Next Normal
McKinsey coined the new term “Next Normal”.
Most of the people think that the Next Normal
means a new normal that will emerge in the post-
viral (post-COVID-19) era.
However, is the COVID-19 the only thing that
changes the socio-economic system?
The next normal will emerge in the new era
directed by some strong drivers.
Source: CDC/ Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM
https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23312

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 4

Changes in socioeconomic
conditions
Short-term changes
◦ Game changer is the COVID-19
◦ Changes under the COVID-19 pandemic
◦ Life styles, working styles, mobility, eating habits, etc.

Long-term changes
◦ Game changers are Climate change, Energy resources,
Population growth/decline, Aging, etc.
◦ What changes will occur in the next decades?

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 5

Short-term changes caused by
the COVID-19
So many changes have caused by the COVID-19
Life styles and working styles
◦ In many countries, public health officials ask people to stay at home.
◦ Teleworking and learning/studying at home have spread rapidly.
Mobility
◦ Lockdowns curtailed personal mobility.
◦ But the use of delivery services rose.
Eating habits
◦ To-go services (take-out orders) are frequently used.
Etc…

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 6

Daily cases and deaths by date
reported to WHO
20,000 500 100,000 5,000
Japan Indonesia
18,000 450 90,000 4,500
Pop. 126 mil. (’20) Pop. 271 mil (’19)
16,000 400 80,000 4,000
14,000 350 70,000 3,500
12,000 300 60,000 3,000
10,000 250 50,000 2,500
8,000 200 40,000 2,000
6,000 150 30,000 1,500
4,000 100 20,000 1,000
2,000 50 10,000 500
0 0 0 0

New cases New deaths New cases New deaths

Download link: https://covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 7

 Changes in electricity
demands (Japan)
15.0% 15.0% 13.4%
Total E. Demand FY2020 11.9%
Diff. from FY2019
UP
10.0% 10.0%
7.2% 6.9%
6.2%
5.0% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7%
2.1% 2.2%
DOWN 0.0%
1.1%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.8% -0.3%
-1.7% -2.3% -1.8%
-2.8%
-5.0% -3.4% -5.0%
-5.0% -4.6% -4.8% Residential E. Demand FY2020
Diff. from FY2019
-10.0% -9.0% -10.0%

• The pandemic decreased the total electricity demand

• Staying-at-home policy increased the residential electricity demand
YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 8
 International traffic results
(Japan)
IMMIGRATION CONTROL JAPANESE AIRLINES’ TRAFFIC
STATISTICS (JAPAN) RESULTS
[km]
5,000,000 6,000,000 1,000,000
4,500,000 5,000,000 800,000
4,000,000

Passengers
4,000,000
3,500,000 600,000
3,000,000 3,000,000
2,500,000 400,000
2,000,000
2,000,000 200,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000 0 0

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19

Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
500,000
-
Revenue Passenger-Kilometer (ANA)
Jan-19

Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-19
Jul-19

Jul-20

Revenue Passenger-Kilometer (JAL)

Passengers (ANA)
Immigration Emigration Passengers (JAL)
Source: Immigration Service Agency of Japan Source: ANA Holdings Inc. & Japan Airline
Investor Relations

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 9

Domestic traffic results (Japan)
ANA’S TRAFFIC RESULTS JAL’S TRAFFIC RESULTS
[km] Passengers [km] Passengers
4,500,000 Slightly 5,000,000 4,500,000 Slightly 5,000,000
4,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000
Recovered 4,000,000
recovered 4,000,000
3,500,000 3,500,000
after the 3,500,000 after the 3,500,000
3,000,000 3,000,000
2,500,000
lock-down 3,000,000
2,500,000
lock-down 3,000,000
finished 2,500,000 finished 2,500,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000
0 0 0 0
Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-19
Jul-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-20

Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-19

Apr-20
Jul-20

Apr-19
Jul-19

Apr-20
Jul-20
Revenue Passenger-Kilometer Passengers Revenue Passenger-Kilometer Passengers

Source: ANA Holdings Inc. Source: Japan Airlines

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 10

Traffic results
(BKK, Suvarnabhumi, Thailand)
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGERS DOMESTIC PASSENGERS
6,000,000 2,000,000 Slightly
1,800,000 recovered
5,000,000
1,600,000 after the
4,000,000
1,400,000 lock-down
1,200,000 finished
3,000,000 1,000,000
800,000
2,000,000
600,000
400,000
1,000,000
200,000
0 0
Jan-19

Nov-19
Jan-20

Nov-20

Jan-19

Nov-19
Jan-20

Nov-20
Mar-19

Jul-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Mar-19

Jul-19

Mar-20

Jul-20
May-19

Sep-19

May-20

Sep-20

May-19

Sep-19

May-20

Sep-20
Source: Airports of Thailand Public Co. Ltd. “Air Traffic Report 2020”

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 Change in logistics under the
COVID-19 pandemic (Japan)
Domestic truck transportation (number of parcels)
600,000 13.0%
8.2%
500,000
14.3%17.6% 10.4%
5.4% 10.6% 12.5% 5.8% 12.3%
400,000
1.3% 2.9%
1,000 parcels

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
• Increase in the delivery service 2019 2020 Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
• Manpower shortage Transportation and Tourism, Japan
• Increase in transportation energy
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 Change in sales in the food-service
industry (Japan)
Sales (vs. the same month last year) Customers (vs. the same month last year)
120% 120%
Fast food Fast food
100% 100% Coffee shop
Restaurant
Coffee shop Pub
80% 80%
Restaurant
60% 60%

40% Pub 40% Number of customers

seems to be recovered
20% 20%
after the lock-down
0% 0% finished

Sep
Feb
Mar

Aug
Apr
May
Jun

Sep

Dec

Feb
Mar

Aug

Dec
Apr
May
Jun
Jul

Oct

Jul

Oct
Jan, 2020

Nov

Jan, 2020

Nov
• To-go services (take-out orders) are frequently used. Source: Japan Foodservice Association
• Serving alcohol drinks are avoided

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 13

Changing Business Landscape
The pandemic triggered us to rethink what are
essential and non-essential in socio-economic
activities.
◦ Going to offices or schools is not in itself work or study.
◦ As people realized this, telework, remote meetings, and
online/on-demand education became popular and
expanded.
◦ The time and financial loss of commuting has decreased
while the face-to-face socializing has decreased.

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Contactless/
Uncontact society
“We are facing an age of ‘Uncontact’”
Kim, Youngsub, the author of “Uncontact”

Kim, Youngsub
Big Tech (GAFAM) generated the highest “Uncontact”
profitability under the pandemic.
This shows the advent of the ‘uncontact’
(contactless) age is not a crisis but an
opportunity.

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 COVID-19 is an accelerator AD 2030?
E-commerce, streaming
Before the

Digital service, teleworking,

Pandemic

Face-to-face selling, remote learning, etc.

Analog commuting, business
trip, etc.
Time
AD 2020
the Pandemic
While/After

Digital
Transition period shortened
Analog

“It's like 10 years (of change) came in one year.”

Tadashi Yanai, a Japanese billionaire businessman, the founder of Fast Retailing,
the parent company of UNIQLO, Aug. 6, 2020
YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 16
Return to the basic of the marketing
Peter Drucker said:
◦ “The aim of marketing is to know and understand the
customer so well the product or service fits him and sells
itself”
If the business persons recognize that e-commerce,
online food ordering, streaming services, etc. are
the services that customers desire,
they (the business persons) must keep ahead the
future, not maintain the current businesses.

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 17

The role of technology in the changing
business landscape
The digitalization is one of the megatrends.
Within this megatrend, it is necessary to
understand the various small trends (i.e., various
customer attitudes)
◦ For example, it is necessary to collect and analyze
customer information using ICT and data science.
As to the e-commerce, it is necessary to refine the
technologies that constitute e-commerce
◦ For example, there are many technical issues in logistics
◦ And we need to refine the mechanism of money
collection
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 Cloud
Computing
Contactless but connected

Connected

Contactless
Delivery
Contactless
YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 19
What sustains it?
Under the COVID-19 pandemic, the digitalization
has realized the contactless but connected society.
New businesses emerge/will emerge on the basis
of ICT, AI, and data science.
However, do we forget something?
What sustains the contactless but connected
society?

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Energy
We must think of energy, which sustains all of the
human activities.
As mentioned before, the residential electricity
consumption increased under the Staying-at-home
policy.
Computation and communication needs energy.
Increase in delivery services needs more energy.
Basically the contactless but connected society
needs energy.

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Energy and Global warming
Scientists say global Global warming emerged as political and
warming is caused by social issues in 1990s
increasing concentrations
of greenhouse gases
(GHG)
◦ GHG are CO2, methane,
nitrous oxides, ozone, etc.
GHG are produced by
human activities such as
burning fossil fuels (that is
energy consumption) and
deforestation (destruction Source: Wikipedia
of forests)
(C) DEAN PROF. FUKUYO, PHD, 2020
 Global warming will cause
climate change Sea level rise (lost of the land
areas)
Number of climate-related natural disasters in China Expansion of deserts (lost of
agricultural lands)
Natural disasters
Change in Mean Annual
Temperature compared to
1961–1990

2030 2040 2050

China 1.40 2.30 4.65
Japan 1.33 1.94 3.81
Mongol 1.29 1.94 4.05
S. Korea 1.58 2.56 5.16
Source：ADB, “Economics of Climate Change in East Asia”

(C) DEAN PROF. FUKUYO, PHD, 2020

Long-term changes:
D Scenario
We will
encounter one
disaster after
another.
We should
envision D (i.e.
disaster) scenario
and prepare for
it.
Sovacool et al.: Energy Research & Social Science 68 (2020) 101701

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 24

Climate change, disasters, and
economy
Many scientist warn that the increase in natural
disasters in recent years is related to the climate
change
The increase in the number of natural disasters is
not only causing direct damage, but is also leading
to negative impacts on the global economy (e.g., an
increase in property insurance premiums)
Moreover, WWF has pointed out the relationship
between the climate change and pandemics

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Zoonotic diseases are
emerging at alarming rate
“The COVID-19 health
crisis reconfirms how our
negative impact on the
natural world increases
the risk of future
pandemics.”

Source: WWF-International “COVID 19: Urgent Call to

Protect People and Nature” (2020)

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 26

One health
We must link the health of humans, animals and
our shared environment.

◦ Deforestation,
◦ unsustainable food production,
◦ illegal trade and consumption of wildlife,
◦ and the climate change caused by energy consumption
are driving the emergence of the next pandemics

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Need for smart energy use
Smart energy use is required for preventing the
global warming, climate change, and next
pandemic.

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 28

 Three arrows for
smart energy use
Energy Conservation
• High performance air-conditioners, LED lights, etc.
• Smart grid, home energy management systems, etc.

Renewable energy
• Wind, hydropower, solar energy, biomass, and geo-
thermal

Energy storage
• Advance in energy storage technology
• Use lithium ion batteries (LiB), Use electric vehicles (EV)

29
Batteries are crucial
PV systems are unstable power sources due to
weather conditions.
Therefore, it is necessary to stabilize the residential
PV power supply by using batteries.
Then, how can we get the enough number of
batteries for stabilizing the residential PV
power supply?

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 30

 Global EV fleet is expanding
8,000

2.06mil
7,000  Global stock of EVs reached
6,000
to 7.2 million in 2019
Cumulative number of EVs

Japan
5,000
 Sales of electric cars topped 1.98mil
0.29mil
2.1 million globally in 2019
[thousands]

US
4,000
1.45mil
 EV shared 2.6% of global car 1.15mil
3,000
sales
2,000
China
1,000
3.35mil

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IEA "Global EV Outlook 2020, Entering the decade of electric drive?" (Released June 2020)

31
V2X?
Now many researchers, engineers, and business
persons have the idea that use of the EV batteries
for stabilizing the residential PV power supply.
The idea of V2X (Vehicle to Everything), using EVs
as batteries for buildings, is well-known but still a
work in progress.
PV
Grid power
EV LiB
Motor
Control system
Residential Electricity Consumption

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 32

Reuse of EV lithium-ion
batteries
Instead of V2X, the presenter started an
experiment based on another idea that we use the
secondhand EV lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) to
stabilize the residential PV power supply.
PV Control system

Grid power

Stationary Battery Residential Electricity Consumption

(Secondhand EV LiB are reused)

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 33

Reuse and recycle of EV LiB
Using the secondhand EV
Secondhand
batteries as Residential
Battery
Reuse Stationary Battery

Fully use

Waste battery

Recycle
Recycling materials
Brand-new battery
into new batteries

34
Electrified but sustainable

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 35

Conclusion
The things I talked in the previous slides are the
examples of the next normal and the business
landscape.
We should not simply think of the Next Normal as a
normal that will emerge in the post-viral era.
The COVID-19 is not the only thing that changes the
socio-economic system.
We should think of many drivers that change the socio-
economic system in the long-term.
And we should imagine the possible futures, business
landscapes, and the technologies used there.

YUMOT, DEAN FUKUYO, 2021 36

Terima kasih atas perhatian Anda!

Thank you!

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