Professional Documents
Culture Documents
JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide
range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and
facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
https://about.jstor.org/terms
Wiley and American Society for Public Administration are collaborating with JSTOR to
digitize, preserve and extend access to Public Administration Review
Operationalizing Incrementalism:
Measuring the Muddles
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
considered incremental without doing severe dam- In examining the annual rates of growth of the
age to the utility of the concept. At a 30 per cent agencies, Fenno finds that 53 per cent of the
rate of annual increase, for example, an agency agencies fall within a 0-10 per cent range. Obvious-
would more than double its base in three years. ly, using this range to define incremental growth
Wildavsky identified the existence of simplified would mean that 47 per cent of the cases would be
calculations and bargaining in the budgetary non-incremental. However, and this illustrates the
process and therefore expected incremental out- problem of shifting criteria, Fenno then proposes
puts (i.e., marginal adjustments). This in turn led to raise the cut-off to 20 per cent, thereby
him to use highly permissive criteria for 0 to 30 including almost three-quarters of the agencies as
per cent change as defining incremental outputs. having grown at incremental rates.8 This flexibility
This broad usage demonstrates the importance of on Fenno's part occurs despite his earlier state-
recognizing that non-incremental outputs can ment that even a 5 per cent shift is meaningful for
emerge from bargaining processes, and that the an agency. If such is the case, then on what
criteria for incremental versus non-incremental grounds can one double the range which is
adjustments should be clearly stated. considered to be incremental? This, of course,
relates to our basic criticism that the criteria are
Fenno left inexplicit because again the analyst is assuming
that the bargaining processes which occur when
Richard Fenno, in his influential work on the the Appropriations Committee cuts agency esti-
House Appropriations Committee, pursues a similarmates, will necessarily produce "incremental" out-
logic. Fenno uses two measures of change in the puts (i.e., small adjustments).
federal budget: (1) the relationships between Fenno then considers the growth rates of the
agency requests and congressional appropriations, agencies over a 16-year period and finds that 12 of
and (2) the change in appropriations granted a the 36 agencies grew at more than a 10 per cent
given agency from one year to the next.7 He rate. We would infer, therefore, that one-third of
obtains different results according to the measure the agencies are growing at higher than a clearly
used. It would seem to us that a case can be made incremental rate. It should also be noted that
for considering the within-year relationship be- Fenno's research design excludes from considera-
tween agency requests and appropriations as the tion agencies which had not been in existence over
bargaining process that produces the budgetarythe entire 16 years. Thus innovations in govern-
output, but the bargaining process should be mental programs (another series of ostensibly
distinguished from the output itself. We wouldnon-incremental phenomena), such as NASA, are
define the annual percentage change in appropria-effectively excluded.9
tion as the output. From this perspective, we find Fenno concludes that the House Appropria-
that as part of the bargaining process, the House tions Committee's "... decisions are mainly in-
Appropriations Committee cuts the agencies' re- cremental-whether measured by the relation of
quests 74 per cent of the time. Slightly over budget estimates to appropriations or by the
three-quarters of the reductions are within a 10 relation of appropriations to last year's appropria-
per cent range. This range, Fenno argues, is highlytions."1 0 Clearly, there is a bargaining pattern in
significant, because cuts of even 5 per cent canthe process by which the output is reached, but it
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
or three functions account for the major portion If the data are then regrouped in categories of
of the budget, it is highly unlikely that significant
incremental outputs, as in Table II, the problem
shifts in the relative ranking will take place. The
becomes clearer. We shall define adjustments in
effective result of this definition is to exclude the range of 0-10 per cent as incremental; modifi-
non-incremental change. Further, this interpreta-cations in the range of 11-30 per cent, we shall
tion adds an additional burden to a concept define as intermediate; and variations over 30 per
already badly stretched to describe and explaincent, we shall consider to be non-incremental.
several different phenomena. Since we have already established the point that
We shall provide data to demonstrate the approximately half of the Wildavsky-Fenno cases
plausibility of our working hypothesis that a fall outside our conception of incremental, we
mutual adjustment process may produce a broad may proceed to examine the other cases.
range of budgetary outputs. The evidence per- In regard to actual U.S. federal expenditures,
suades us that the concept incrementalism needs the data suggest that a major portion of the
rethinking and that a more careful usage is inoutputs is incremental. We would call attention,
order. Our intent in analyzing data on budgetaryhowever, to the rather substantial percentage of
outputs is simply to illustrate our argument. Data
outputs, about one-third, which fall in the gray
on expenditures by the U.S. federal government, area of intermediate, and we would emphasize that
Virginia, and Colombia are grouped in Table I in the percentage of cases in our non-incremental
the percentage categories suggested by Wildav-
category is not insignificant.
sky.17 The figures used by Wildavsky refer to According to the data provided by Ira Sharkan-
initial congressional appropriations, while data onsky,' 8 Virginia conforms rather well to an "incre-
the other cases are in terms of departments,mental" process of budgeting. In analyzing the
agencies, and ministries. outputs, however, we find that the major portion
TABLE I
VARIATIONS IN INCREMENTAL OUTPUTS: SOME COMPARISONS
*Congressional Appropriations
Wildavsky-Fenno 33.6 18.9 20.9 11.5 4.7 3.4 5.4 1.6
(N = 444)
**U.S. Federal Expenditures,
1961-1971 28.3 20.8 24.1 8.0 2.8 3.8 8.0 5.2
(N = 212)
***Colombia Central Government
Expenditures, 1961-1971 13.3 9.4 19.2 15.3 12.9 7.5 14.9 7.5
(N = 255)
****Virginia State Expenditures,
1967-1970 18.8 15.9 39.1 13.0 2.9 2.9 5.8 1.5
(N = 69)
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975
Notes
1. Robert Dahl and Charles Lindblom, Politics, Eco- 12. For a study which examines within-agency variations
nomics and Welfare (New York: Harper and Row, in spending, see Peter B. Natchez and Irvin C. Bupp,
1953), p. 82. "Policy and Priority in the Budgetary Process,"
2. Charles E. Lindblom, Intelligence of Democracy American Political Science Review, Vol. 67, No. 3
(New York: MacMillan, 1965), p. 144. (September 1973), pp. 951-963.
3. Ibid., ch. 6, 9. 13. Sharkansky, op. cit., Table I, p. 1223. Rufus
4. Tangentially, the questions might be raised: Are Browning, for example, analyzes two different state
incrementalism and partisan mutual adjustment agencies, one of which has grown at the rate of 11
necessarily linked? Does the existence of bargaining per cent and the other at a rate of 40 per cent, and
necessarily imply that all actors have made their discusses the correlates of these differential rates of
calculations incrementally, rather than through growth, in "Innovative and Non-Innovative Decision
systematic analysis? The recent history of PPB Processes in Government Budgeting," reprinted in
would suggest that bargaining and analysis may Ira Sharkansky (ed.), Policy Analysis in Political
occur simultaneously. Science (Chicago: Markham, 1970), pp. 304-334.
5. Charles E. Lindblom, "Decision-Making in Taxation 14. Sharkansky, op. cit., p. 1231.
and Expenditures" (1961), reprinted in Robert T. 15. Ibid.
Golembiewski (ed.), Public Budgeting and Finance: 16. Thomas Dye, Understanding Public Policy (Engle-
Readings in Theory and Practice (Itasca, Ill.: F.E. wood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1972), p. 215.
Peacock Publishers, 1968), p. 296. 17. Wildavsky, Politics of the Budgetary Process, Table
6. Aaron Wildavsky, Politics of the Budgetary Process 2-1, p. 14.
(Boston: Little Brown, 1964), p. 15. 18. Sharkansky, "Agency Requests," Table I, p. 1223.
7. Richard Fenno, The Power of the Purse (Boston: 19. It would take us rather far afield to describe the
Little Brown, 1966), p. 352. nature of the bargaining process in the Colombian
8. Ibid., p. 354. case. See James L. Payne, Patterns of Conflict in
9. Ibid., p. xxiv. Colombia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968),
10. Ibid., p. 410. ch. 12, and John J. Bailey, "Public Budgeting in
11. Ira Sharkansky, "Agency Requests, Gubernatorial Colombia: Disjoined Incrementalism in a Dependent
Support, and Budget Success in State Legislatures," Polity," LADAC Occasional Papers, Series 2, No. 10
American Political Science Review, Vol. 62 (Decem- (Austin: Institute of Latin American Studies, Univer-
ber 1968), p. 1222. sity of Texas, 1974), pp. 9-13.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1975