Abstract

Purpose of Review

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a planetary-scale band of heavy precipitation close to the
equator. Here, we consider the response of the ITCZ structure to climate change using observations,
simulations, and theory. We focus on the substantial yet underappreciated projected changes in ITCZ
width and strength, and highlight an emerging conceptual framework for understanding these changes.

Recent Findings

Satellite observations and reanalysis data show a narrowing and strengthening of precipitation in the
ITCZ over recent decades in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, but little change in ITCZ location.
Consistent with observations, coupled climate models predict no robust change in the zonal-mean ITCZ
location over the twenty-first century. However, the majority of models project a narrowing of the ITCZ
and weakening mean ascent. Interestingly, changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti-
correlated across models.

Introduction

Earth’s deep-tropical climate is dominated by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a narrow band
of rising air and intense precipitation (Fig. 1a). Precipitation in the ITCZ is driven by moisture
convergence associated with the northerly and southerly trade winds that collide near the equator. The
ITCZ accounts for 32% of global precipitation [1] and shapes climate and society in the tropics; any
response of the ITCZ to climate change will have implications for tropical regions. It has also been
suggested that, through its influence on the global radiation budget, the ITCZ could influence global
temperature and precipitation and their responses to climate change

The ITCZ moves north and south across the equator following the seasonal cycle of solar insolation, and
is intimately connected to seasonal monsoon circulations [6]. In the annual average, the ITCZ lies a few
degrees north of the equator [7]. Considerable research has focused on why the ITCZ lies north of the
equator, and how this meridional location responds to past and future climate change [8,9,10,11]. An
energetic theory has been developed over the past two decades to diagnose how processes in Earth’s
climate—including radiation asymmetries between hemispheres, atmosphere-ocean coupling, and
energy input to the tropical atmosphere—control the zonal-mean ITCZ location
[10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21]. This theory has recently been extended to understand variations
of the ITCZ location with longitude [22, 23]. Four recent review articles have comprehensively
synthesized this body of research on the ITCZ location [1, 24,25,26]. Here, we provide a broader
perspective of the response of the ITCZ to climate change. We focus on two aspects of the ITCZ which
have received relatively little attention: its width and strength. In contrast to the ITCZ location, which
has not shifted substantially over the past three decades in the Pacific [27] and which shows no robust
response in simulations with elevated CO2 concentrations [26], the ITCZ width and tropical circulation
strength have changed significantly over recent decades [27, 28]. And, the ITCZ width and circulation
strength are predicted to continue changing into the future [29, 30]. In climate change simulations, the
ITCZ narrows and strengthens in the core of the ascent region as climate warms, a pattern of change
which has been termed the “deep-tropics squeeze” [29]. These changes are expected to have important
impacts on tropical regions. Our physical understanding of why the ITCZ width and strength change with
warming is only beginning to develop [30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38] and represents a key challenge in
climate dynamics. Limited understanding of ITCZ width and strength contrasts with our well-developed
knowledge of the ITCZ location and the extent of the Hadley circulation

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

The ITCZ is a zone of convergence at the thermal equator where the trade winds meet. It is a low
pressure belt and migrates with the changing position of the thermal equator.

The thermal equator receives the most intense heat from the Sun. Around 20th June each year the Sun
is overhead at 23½º North, the Tropic of Cancer. Around 20th December the Sun is overhead at 23½º
South, the Tropic of Capricorn.

The movement of the thermal equator shifts the belts of planetary winds and pressure systems to the
north and to the south annually, as the diagram below shows.
To understand the cause and impact of the ITCZ we must first look at the trade winds and air masses
over Africa.

The north-east trade winds come from the Tropical Continental (cT) air mass.

The south-west trade winds come from the Tropical Maritime (mT) air mass.

Air masses

Tropical Maritime air mass

This air mass originates in the Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Guinea. In tropical latitudes this air mass is hot to
very hot, with high relative humidity, bringing unstable weather.

Tropical Continental air mass

This air mass originates in the Sahara Desert. In tropical latitudes this air mass is hot to very hot, with
low relative humidity, bringing stable weather.

When these two air masses meet, moist air is forced upward. This causes water vapour to condense as
the air cools and rises, resulting in a band of heavy precipitation around the globe.
As the ITCZ moves north it carries the mT winds over the land. This will bring wet weather. At the same
time places to the north of the ITCZ will be experiencing hot dry weather, under the influence of the cT
winds. Thunderstorms regularly occur directly beneath the ITCZ.

Variation in the location of the ITCZ dramatically affects rainfall in many equatorial nations, resulting in
the wet and dry seasons of the tropics.

ITCZ's effect on the region's climate

The ITCZ has varying effects on climates.

Gao

Gao, with around 200 mm of rainfall per year, is a hot desert climate, with only a limited amount of
precipitation in summer as the ITCZ migrates north.

Gao’s climate is influenced by the hot, dry cT air for most of the year and as can be seen in the graph
below, it therefore has fewer days of rain and very low total annual precipitation.

This is because it is to the north of the ITCZ for most of the year.

Abidjan

Abidjan, with around 1700 mm of rainfall per year, is a tropical rainforest climate. As the graph below
displays, it has a twin-peak regime with a major peak in June and a smaller peak in October/November.
It is on the Gulf of Guinea coast and is therefore influenced by hot, humid mT air for most of the year.
This results in a higher total annual precipitation and a greater number of rain days.

The twin precipitation peaks happen because the ITCZ moves north in the early part of the year, bringing
rainfall and then south later in the year, again bringing rainfall.

It is on the Gulf of Guinea coast and is therefore influenced by hot, humid mT air for most of the year.
This results in a higher total annual precipitation and a greater number of rain days.

The twin precipitation peaks happen because the ITCZ moves north in the early part of the year, bringing
rainfall and then south later in the year, again bringing rainfall.

Bobo-Dioulasso

Bobo-Dioulasso has a total annual precipitation of around 1000 mm and has a clear wet season/dry
season regime.
As the graph above shows, it receives more rain days and heavy summer precipitation from June until
August when the ITCZ is furthest north. This brings rainfall to the area as the mT air mass is dominant.

Our objectives for this review

are to (i) analyze how the ITCZ has changed over recent decades (Observed Changes in the ITCZ), (ii)
summarize projections for future changes in ITCZ location, width, and strength from state-of-the-art
climate simulations (Projected Changes in the ITCZ Over the Twenty-first Century), and (iii) outline the
physical theory underpinning these observed and projected changes (Emerging Theory to Understand
ITCZ Responses). We finish with a summary and discussion of priorities for future research (Discussion).

Observed Changes in the ITCZ

Why does the ITCZ shift and how?

Most rain on Earth falls in the tropical rain belt known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),
which on average lies 6° north of the equator. Over the past 15 years, it has become clear that the ITCZ
position can shift drastically in response to remote changes, for example, in Arctic ice cover. But current
climate models have difficulties simulating the ITCZ accurately, often exhibiting two ITCZs north and
south of the equator when in reality there is only one. What controls the sensitivity of the ITCZ to
remote forcings? And how do the model biases in the ITCZ arise?
Paleoclimate studies (e.g., Peterson et al. 2000, Haug et al. 2001) and a series of modeling studies starting with Vellinga and
Wood (2002), Chiang and Bitz (2005) and Broccoli et al. (2006) have revealed one important driver of ITCZ shifts: differential
heating or cooling of the hemispheres shifts the ITCZ toward the differentially warming hemisphere. So when the northern
hemisphere warms, for example, because northern ice cover and with it the polar albedo are reduced, the ITCZ shifts northward.
This can be rationalized as follows: When the atmosphere receives additional energy in the northern hemisphere, it attempts to
rectify this imbalance by transporting energy across the equator from the north to the south. Most atmospheric energy transport
near the equator is accomplished by the Hadley circulation, the mean tropical overturning circulation. The ITCZ lies at the foot of
the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation, and the circulation transports energy in the direction of its upper branch, because
energy (or, more precisely, moist static energy) usually increases with height in the atmosphere. Southward energy transport
across the equator then requires an ITCZ north of the equator, so the upper branch of the Hadley circulation can cross the equator
going from the north to the south.

Conclusion

The ITCZ has narrowed over recent decades yet its location has remained approximately constant.
Climate models project further narrowing and a weakening of the average ascent within the ITCZ as the
climate continues to warm. Following intense work over the last ten years, the physical mechanisms
controlling the ITCZ location are now well understood. The development of complementary theories for
ITCZ width and strength is a current research priority. Outstanding challenges include understanding the
ITCZ response to past climate changes and over land versus ocean regions, and better constraining all
aspects of the ITCZ structure in model projections.
The ITCZ provides water to billions of people in tropical regions and any responses of the ITCZ to climate change need to be
understood and accurately predicted. Large shifts in ITCZ location over Earth’s history have been recorded in paleoclimate data,
but in recent decades it has been other aspects of the ITCZ structure that have been changing in response to climate change. Over
the Atlantic and Pacific oceans the ITCZ has narrowed and its precipitation rate has intensified but the location has remained
nearly unchanged. These observed trends are qualitatively consistent with projections for the ITCZ: Models simulate narrowing
and weakening of the ITCZ circulation in a warming climate, but no robust change in location. Interestingly, we show that
changes in ITCZ width and strength are strongly anti- correlated across models; this relationship can be understood by
considering constraints on the atmospheric vertical mass transport. Uncertainties in the responses of the ITCZ to climate change
are substantial, and reducing these uncertainties is contingent upon improving our fundamental understanding of ITCZ dynamics,
and in particular the processes shaping ITCZ width and strength. The development of new conceptual insights into ITCZ
dynamics will help targeted improvement of climate models and their simulation of the ITCZ, and may offer opportunities to
develop “emergent constraints” to narrow uncertainty in existing CMIP5 simulations and in the impending CMIP6 simulations
[142]. (An emergent constraint on the response of tropical high-altitude cloud fraction to global warming has recently been
proposed

but whether this informs the ITCZ width response is an open question.

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