ISMI2017 Program and Abstract Book

PROGRAMME
AND
ABSTRACTS BOOK
INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON
MATHEMATICS IN INDUSTRY 2017
AUGUST 1-2, 2017
Pulai Springs Resort,

Johor Bahru, Malaysia
Contents
Foreword 1
Message 2
Preface 3
Organizing Committee 4
Keynote Speaker I 6
Keynote Speaker II 7
Invited Speakers 8
Programme Schedule
Tuesday, August 1, 2017 9
Wednesday, August 2, 2017 10
Parallel Presentation Schedule 11

Tuesday, August 1, 2017
Dewan Inderaputera 13
Maharaja Suites 15
Maharani Suites 17
Mahsuri Suites 19
Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Dewan Inderaputera & Maharaja Suites 21
Maharani Suites & Mahsuri Suites 22
Malaysian Mathematics in Industry Workshop 2017 23
Abstracts 26
Acknowledgements 102
Map 103
List of Participants 104
Sponsors 110
International Seminar on Mathematics in Industry 2017
Foreword
Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

Salam Sejahtera dan Salam Satu Malaysia
It gives me great pleasure to be here for the

2nd International Seminar on Mathematics in
Industry 2017 (ISMI 2017), organised as a
collaborative effort between the UTM Centre for
Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-
CIAM), the Department of Mathematical
Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM; and the
Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied
Mathematics (OCIAM), Oxford University.
I am also pleased to welcome keynote and invited speakers, presenters,
participants, industrial partners and invited guests who have come from near and
far to be with us today.
As a research university, UTM recognizes the importance of fostering
synergy and enhancing engagements between the university community and
external partners from other institutions and the industry towards impactful
outcomes in resolving issues, challenges and problems at all levels.
As such, this gathering of academics, experts and practitioners is the right
platform to share important insights, practical approaches and innovative
solutions in the field of applied and industrial mathematics. At the same time,
we strongly believe that corporate organizations and government bodies have a
strong motivation to provide the support and contribute funding in recognition
of the meaningful outcomes of work done by researchers.
Lastly, I would like to thank the organisers and the working committee for
their tireless effort, the sponsors for their support and all those who have
contributed to the success of this seminar. I wish all presenters and participants
a fruitful seminar and I hope that your visit to UTM will be a pleasant
experience.
Thank you.
Prof. Datuk Ir. Dr. Wahid Omar

Vice Chancellor
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM
ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 1

Message

Alhamdulillah, praise be to Allah Subhanahu

Wata'ala for giving the UTM Centre for
Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-
CIAM) the opportunity to organize the 2 nd
International Seminar on Mathematics in Industry

2017 (ISMI 2017). On behalf of UTM-CIAM, I
would like to extend my heartiest welcome to
keynote and invited speakers, participants,
presenters and guests to our seminar. In 2013, the
first ISMI was successfully organised and the outcome of the seminar was
extremely positive. Since then, things unfolded in a productive way for
industrial mathematics as more research and collaborations have been forged
between mathematics researchers and the industrial community through various
conferences and academic publications.
Since its establishment in 2012, UTM-CIAM has targeted its activities
towards empowering industrial mathematics as a tool for problem solving,
innovation and commercialisation in line with national aspiration to boost the
interest in STEM and accelerate the 4th IR. Thus, the theme for this seminar,
‘Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialisation’ is indeed
appropriate. Currently, UTM-CIAM provides consultancy and assistance to
business owners on ways to simplify processes, strengthen their positions and
expand their productivity in the marketplace. Our activities also include
industry-related research, capacity building and industrial customised software
development programmes. As such, we look forward to acquiring and applying
new techniques and innovations to solve industrial problems and commercialise
products.
Apart from ISMI 2013, we have successfully organized signature events such
as the Mathematics in Industry Study Group (MISG), the Malaysia
Mathematical Modelling Camp (MMMC) 2015, the Malaysia Industrial
Mathematical Modelling Camp (MIMMC) 2013 and Young Talent Consultancy
Camp 2016. We are very confident this seminar will bring more mathematical
scientists and industry practitioners together to share their experiences in
handling real industrial problems through mathematical ideas and tools. We are
very happy to continue the good relations and collaborations with the Oxford
Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (OCIAM), and are planning
more future endeavours with our industrial partners.
Lastly, I would like to express my heartfelt appreciation to everyone for their
hard work, cooperation, and dedication to ensure the success of this seminar.
The excellent efforts engaged by the organising committee, the Faculty of
Science, OCIAM and UTM in organising ISMI 2017 are laudable. I wish all the
participants an enriching seminar. Thank you.
Prof. Dr. Zainal Abd. Aziz

Director
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM)

Preface

Praise be to Almighty Allah (SWT), for

granting us the opportunity to organise the 2nd
International Seminar on Mathematics in Industry
2017 (ISMI 2017) in Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia (UTM) Johor Bahru, Johor. We are
deeply honoured to be the host of this prestigious
seminar. This year’s theme, ‘Industrial
Mathematics for Innovation and
Commercialisation’, is an excellent platform for mathematical scientists and
industry practitioners to share their experiences in handling industrial challenges
and issues through mathematical ideas and tools.
The first ISMI, held in 2013 with resounding success, had forged closer ties
between mathematical scientists and industry partners in Malaysia through
various project-based collaborations. This year, ISMI-2017 is jointly organised
by UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), the
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM and the Oxford
Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (OCIAM).
On behalf of organising committee, I would like to extend my heartiest
welcome to all the invited speakers, presenters and participants and to thank all
of you for your support and patronage. We have received more than 70 papers,
and corresponding participants will be joining us in presenting their ideas and
achievements, as well as participating in the Malaysian Mathematics in Industry
Workshop (MMIW-2017). We hope that this seminar will promote the sharing
of experiences and strengthen collaborations among participants applying
innovative mathematical tools and models in industry.
My deepest appreciation goes to UTM, UTM-CIAM, OCIAM and the
Department of Mathematical Sciences for their support in organising the
seminar. I would also like to thank the honourable Prof. Dr. Masato Wakayama
and YB Dato’ Mohd Razali bin Hussain for accepting our invitation to speak in
our seminar. Finally, I would like to thank the presenters, participants, sponsors,
the ISMI 2017 working committee (for their hard work and commitment), and
any who have directly or indirectly contributed to make ISMI 2017 a success.
Thank you and May Allah bless us all!
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fadhilah Yusof

Chairman of ISMI 2017

Organizing Committee
Patron
YBhg. Prof. Datuk Ir. Dr. Wahid Omar

Vice Chancellor,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
Advisors
Prof. Dr. Ahmad Fauzi Ismail

UTM Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research And Innovation)
Prof. Dr. Zainal Abdul Aziz

Director,
UTM-Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Chair
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fadhilah Yusof
Secretary
Dr. Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz

Mr. Mohd Farid Ismail
Miss Nurfarhani Shabri
Miss Tuan Mariam Tuan Mahmud
Treasurer
Dr. Zuhaila Ismail

Dr. Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin
Dr. Nor Muhainiah Mohd Ali
Mrs. Nor Liyana Sabari
Miss Norliza Mohd Zain
Miss Normazni Abdullah

Technical & Scientific Committee
Secretariat Dr. Syarifah Zyurina Nordin

Dr. Anati Ali
Dr. Faridah Mustapha
Dr. Shariffah Suhaila Syed Jamaludin
Dr. Zarina Mohd Khalid
Mrs. Wan Rukaida Wan Abdullah
Web & Dr. Norhaiza Ahmad

Announcements Dr. Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz
Dr. Shazirawati Mohd Puzi
Event Dr. Taufiq Khairi Ahmad Khairuddin

Managemant Dr. Mohd Ariff Admon
Dr. Niki Anis Ab Karim
Dr. Norazlina Ismail
Dr. Zaiton Mat Isa
Mr. Wan Rohaizad Wan Ibrahim
Mr. Zulfauzi Zakaria
Mr. Fauzi Md Arif
Scientific Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ali Hassan Mohamed Murid

Prof. Dr. Tahir Ahmad
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Maizah Hura Ahmad
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sharidan Shafie
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mukhiddin Muminov
Dr. Ahmad Razin Zainal Abidin
Dr. Akbar Banitalebi
Dr. Ani Shabri
Dr. Farhana Johar
Dr. Fong Wan Heng
Dr. Fuaada Mohd Siam
Dr. Muhammad Fauzee Hamdan
Dr. Yeak Su Hoe
MMIW 2017 Dr. Arifah Bahar

Prof. Dr. Zainal Abdul Aziz
Assoc. Dr. Zulkepli Majid
Dr. Ahmad Razin Zainal Abidin
Dr. Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah
Dr. Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin

Keynote Speaker I
\
DATO’ MOHD. RAZALI HUSSAIN
Director-General,
Malaysia Productivity Corporation
(MPC)
Productivity Measurements and Mathematical Applications
Mathematics is a methodical application of matter. The subject

makes a man methodical or systematic and through that it makes our
life orderly and prevents chaos. In a nut-shell we can say,
mathematics is very much about creativity and problem solving. In
today challenging world, industries have utilized and combine
knowledge of mathematics, statistics and economic theory to resolve
real-world business problems.
Productivity measurement is an important means to an end. It
provides valuable information on how an organization is performing,
where it would like to be, and how it can achieve its
goals. Productivity measurement is a prerequisite for improving
productivity. Without productivity measurement, a business does not
have direction and control. It helps to determine if our organization
or nation is progressing well. It also provides information on how
effectively and efficiently our organization or nation manages its
resources. However, the measurement process is not a straight
forward affair and many judgement calls need to be made along the
way.
In solving the industry problems, the actual process is always
begun with the formulation of the problem and our experience in
productivity measurement had shown us that the understanding of the
problems is very much crucial in ensuring the right formulation of
the problem to be establish. Specific examples on productivity
measurement exercise are discussed in this paper as to illustrate the
importance of this systematic problem formulation.

Keynote Speaker II
PROF. DR. MASATO WAKAYAMA
Executive Vice President,

Kyushu University
Former Director,
Institute of Mathematics for Industry,
Kyushu University
Mathematics for Industry in Japan
For over 50 years, mathematical research in Japan has been

much inclined towards pure mathematics. Nevertheless, behind
the Japanese technological developments for Mono-Zukuri
(manufacturing) culture, there existed a strong tradition of
applied mathematics along with several practical experimental
research. In fact, much of these works are under the School of
Engineering rather than the School of Science where the
Department of Mathematics is normally attached. Then, what
happened around in the 1990s, such active applied mathematical
research tradition in the engineering schools became gradually
disappearing after we obtained high performance computers. It
was very unfortunate, but finally, under the recent development
of the Internet, Big-Data, Artificial Intelligence, etc. resulting from
the realization of more advanced high performance computing,
we arrived at a point that has enabled us to make various efforts
to improve the situation not only in mathematics research
communities but also the government.
In this talk, I will present an overview of the historical

development of Japanese mathematics and introduce the current
trend and effort.

Invited Speakers
No. Speakers ID
1. Ahmad Razin Zainal Abidin, Dr. ID083
2. Akbar Banitalebi, Dr. ID015
3. Ali Hassan Mohamed Murid, AP Dr. ID061
4. Arifah Bahar, Dr. ID036
5. Dennis Ling Chuan Ching, Dr. ID068
6. Fadhilah Yusof, Dr. ID081
7. Farah Aini Abdullah, AP Dr. ID063
8. Fong Wan Heng, Dr. ID032
9. Hamizah M Safuan, Dr. ID035
10. Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah, Dr. ID043
11. Mohd Bakri Adam, AP Dr. ID039
12. Mohd Tahir Ismail, AP Dr. ID040
13. Muhamad Safiih Lola, AP Dr. ID026
14. Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Dr. ID031
15. Norazlina Ismail, Dr. ID078
16. Norhaiza Ahmad, Dr. ID041
17. Nur Aidya Hanum Aizam, Dr. ID071
18. Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz, Dr. ID080
19. Sharifah Hafizah Syed Ariffin, AP Ir. Dr. ID046
20. Shariffah Suhaila Syed Jamaludin, Dr. ID079
21. Suhartono, Dr. ID082
22. Syarifah Zyurina Nordin, Dr. ID076
23. Syerrina Zakaria, Dr. ID050
24. Taufiq Khairi Ahmad Khairuddin, Dr. ID060
25. Ummu ’Atiqah Mohd Roslan, Dr. ID045
26. Wan Rukaida Wan Abdullah, Ms. ID077
27. Yeak Su Hoe, Dr. ID008
28. Zainal Abdul Aziz, Prof. Dr. ID038
29. Zainidin K. Eshkuvatov, AP Dr. ID064
30. Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin, Dr. ID075
31. Zarina Mohd Khalid, Dr. ID073
32. Zuhaila Ismail, Dr. ID044

Programme Schedule August 1, 2017
Time Programme Venue
8.00 - 9.00 Registration Pavilion Foyer
9.00 - 9.45 Opening Ceremony Dewan Inderaputera

Ramayana Lounge,
9.45 - 10.15 Refreshment
Pulai Pavilion
10.15 - 11.15 Keynote Session I Dewan Inderaputera
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Pulai Pavilion
11.15 - 12.15 Invited Parallel Session I
(Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Contributed Parallel Pulai Pavilion
12.15 - 13.00
Session I (Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
Cinta Terrace, Level 2,
13.00 - 14.00 Lunch Break
CintaAyu Hotel
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Contributed Parallel Pulai Pavilion
14.00 - 15.00
Session II (Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
15.00 - 16.00 Keynote Session II Dewan Inderaputera
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Invited Parallel Session Pulai Pavilion
16.00 - 17.00
II (Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
Ramayana Lounge,
Pulai Pavilion
20.00 - 22.00 Dinner Kayangan Suites

Programme Schedule August 2, 2017

Malaysian Mathematics in
Industry Workshop 2017
8.30 – 8.45 Dewan Inderaputera
Welcoming & Opening
remarks
8.45 - 9.30 Dewan Inderaputera
Industrial Problem
Presentations
Ramayana Lounge,
9.30 – 10.00 Refreshment
Pulai Pavilion
Pulai Pavilion
10.00 - 13.00 (Maharaja Suites,
Parallel Discussion on the
Maharani Suites)
Industrial Problems
Cinta Terrace,
13.00 - 14.00 Lunch Break Level 2, CintaAyu
Hotel
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Invited & Contributed Pulai Pavilion
14.00 - 15.15
Parallel Session III (Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
Wrap-up Session on
15.15 – 16.00 Dewan Inderaputera
Industrial Problems
&
Photo Session
16.00 - 16.30 Closing Ceremony Dewan Inderaputera
Ramayana Lounge,
16.30 Refreshment
Pulai Pavilion

Parallel Presentation Schedule

Time Programme (Tuesday - August 1, 2017)
8.00 - 9.00 Registration
9.00 - 9.45 Opening Ceremony
10.15 - 11.15 Keynote Session I
Pulai Pavilion
Dewan
Venue Inderaputera Maharaja Maharani Mahsuri
Suites Suites Suites
Environment/ Finance/ Medical/
Manufacturing
Agro Social Healthcare
Time
Invited Parallel Session I
11.15 ID035 ID082 ID026 ID061
- ID031 (C) ID015 (C) ID045 (C) ID044 (C)
12.15 ID039 ID043 ID050 ID032
Parallel Session
Contributed Parallel Session I
12.15 ID021 (C) ID012 ID051 (C) ID004 (C)

- ID024 ID018 ID052 ID005
13.00 ID033 ID013 (C) ID058 ID016
13.00-
Lunch Break
14.00
Contributed Parallel Session II
Finance/ Medical/
Manufacturing Energy
Social Healthcare
ID019 ID027 ID007 ID014
14.00
ID054 ID028 (C) ID053 ID029 (C)
-
ID055 ID037 ID056 ID030
15.00
ID034 (C) ID049 ID088 (C) ID048
15.00 - 16.00 Keynote Session II

Invited Parallel Session II
Medical/
Parallel Session
Environment/ Manufacturing/ Environment/

Healthcare
Agro & Others Transportation Agro
& Agri
16.00 ID068 ID046 ID064 ID063

- ID008 ID075 ID080 (C) ID036
17.05 ID078 (C) ID076 (C) ID041 ID073
ID079 ID081 ID038 ID077 (C)
(C) Chairperson

Time Programme (Wednesday - August 2, 2017)

8.30 – 8.45 Malaysian Mathematics in Industry Workshop 2017
Welcoming & Opening remarks
Industrial Problem Presentations
Parallel Discussion on the Industrial Problems
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch Break
Pulai Pavilion
Dewan
Venue
Inderaputera Maharaja Maharani Mahsuri
Suites Suites Suites
Invited & Contributed Parallel Session III
Parallel Session
Manufacturing,
Environment/ Energy/
Energy & Manufacturing
Agro Transportation
Agro
Time
ID006 ID047 ID017

ID040
14.00 ID042 (C) ID057 (C) ID020 (C)
ID071
- ID072 ID059 ID023
ID060 (C)
15.15 ID074 ID084 ID085
ID083
ID087 ID086 ID089
Malaysian Mathematics in Industry Workshop 2017

15.15
Wrap-up Session on Industrial Problems
–
&
16.00
Photo Session
16.00 - 16.30 Closing Ceremony
16.30 Refreshment
(C) Chairperson

TUESDAY, August 1, 2017 DEWAN INDERAPUTERA
TIME ID NO. SPEAKER TITLE

Industry Application – Environment/Agro
Dynamical Behaviours of
Prey-Predator Fishery
Hamizah M
11.15 –11.35 ID035 Model with Harvesting
Safuan
Affected by Toxic
Substances
Potential of Plotting
ID031 Noratiqah Positions for Intensity-
11.35 – 11.55
(C) Mohd Ariff Duration-Frequency Curves
with Short Rainfall Records
Extreme Modelling of
Mohd Bakri
11.55 – 12.15 ID039 Missing Acacia Mangium
Adam
Height Data
Nonlinear Partial
Differential Equations
Model Related to Oxidation
ID021
12.15 – 12.30 Amir Hamzah Pond Treatment System: A
(C)
Case Study Of Mpho at
Taman Timor Oxidation
Pond, Johor
A Comparison of Method
Izzat
for Treating Missing Daily
12.30 – 12.45 ID024 Fakhruddin
Rainfall Data in Peninsular
Kamaruzaman
Malaysia
Parametric Estimation
Rahmah Binti
Methods for Bivariate
12.45 – 13.00 ID033 Mohd
Copula in Rainfall
Lokoman
Application
13.00 – 14.00 LUNCH BREAK
(C) Chairperson

TUESDAY, August 1, 2017 DEWAN INDERAPUTERA

Industrial Application - Manufacturing
Deriving Critical Factors for
Fatin Amrina Quality and Safety
14.00 – 14.15 ID019
A. Rashid Management at Wood Based
Furniture Industry
Mhd Effect on Unsteady Mixed
Mohamad Convection Boundary Layer
14.15 – 14.30 ID054 Alif Bin Flow past a Circular Cylinder
Ismail in Nanofluid with Constant
Wall Temperature
Aligned MHD Free Convection
Mohd Rijal of Ferrofluids with Convective
14.30 – 14.45 ID055
Ilias Surface Boundary Condition
over an Inclined Plate
Solution for Nonlinear Duffing
Ahmad Fadly
ID034 Oscillator using Variable Order
14.45 – 15.00 Nurullah
(C) Variable Stepsize Block
Rasedee
Method
15.00 – 16.00 KEYNOTE SESSION II
Industrial Application – Environment/Agro & Others
Mathematical Modeling of
Dennis Ling
16.00 – 16.20 ID068 Geophone Magnetic Ring for
Chuan Ching
Sensitivity Studies
Some Numerical Methods and
Comparisons for Solving
16.20 – 16.35 ID008 Yeak Su Hoe Mathematical Model of Surface
Decontamination by Clay
Solution
Generic Skills Assessment on
Critical Thinking and Problem
ID078 Norazlina
16.35 – 16.50 Solving Skills: Engineering vs
(C) Ismail
Non-Engineering UTM
Students
Application of Mathematical
Shariffah
Sciences Research in
16.50 – 17.05 ID079 Suhaila Syed
Hydrology Fields: A case study
Jamaludin
in Malaysia
17.05 REFRESHMENT
(C) Chairperson

MAHARAJA SUITES,
TUESDAY, August 1, 2017
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application - Manufacturing
Comparison between
VAR, GSTAR, FFNN-
11.15 –11.35 ID082 Suhartono VAR and FFNN-GSTAR
Models for Forecasting Oil
Production
A Review on Modeling and
ID015 Akbar
11.35 – 11.55 Control of Magnetorheological
(C) Banitalebi
Fluid Dampers
Mohd Ridza Performance of Isogeometric
11.55 – 12.15 ID043 Bin Mohd Analysis on Plane Stress
Haniffah Structure
Extrapolated Symmetrized
Annie Runge-Kutta Methods in
12.15 – 12.30 ID012
Gorgey Solving Simple Harmonic
Oscillator
Mixed Convection Boundary
Rahimah Layer Flow of a Viscoelastic
12.30 – 12.45 ID018
Mahat Nanofluid over a Heated and
Cooled Circular Cylinder
Effect of Thermal Stratification
Yahaya on MHD Flow of Nanofluid in
ID013
12.45 – 13.00 Shagaiya the Presence of Thermal
(C)
Daniel Radiation and Electric Field
over a Stretching Sheet
(C) Chairperson

MAHARAJA SUITES,
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application – Energy
Comparative Study on Maxwell
and Navier Stokes Fluid
Amber
Equations with Pressure
14.00 – 14.15 ID027 Nehan
Gradient over a Flat Plate for
Kashif
Convective Boundary Layer
Flow and Heat Transfer
Convergence Rate for the
ID028 Nur Fadhilah Method of Finding the Largest
14.15 – 14.30
(C) Ibrahim Eigenvalue of Nonnegative
Polynomials
Approximate Analytical
Fawzia
ID037 Solution of the MHD Powell-
14.30 – 14.45 Mansour
Eyring Fluid Flow near
Elniel
Accelerated Plate
Muhammad Solar Radiation Forecasting
14.45 – 15.00 ID049 Zillullah Using a Hybrid SARIMA and
Mukaram ANN method
Industrial Application – Manufacturing/Transportation
Optimal Forwarding
Sharifah
Probability in Vehicular
16.00 – 16.20 ID046 Hafizah Syed
Location Prediction Handoff
Ariffin
Algorithm (Vlp-H)
Integration of Economic
Production Quantity with
Zaitul
Defective Items and
16.20 – 16.35 ID075 Marlizawati
Aggregate Planning for
Zainuddin
Multi-Product in Multi-
Period
Syarifah
ID076 Optimization of UTM Bus
16.35 – 16.50 Zyurina
(C) Services
Nordin
Statistical Literacy for
Fadhilah Small and Medium-sized
16.50 -17.05 ID081
Yusof Enterprise (SME) in
Malaysia
17.05 REFRESHMENT
(C) Chairperson

MAHARANI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application – Finance/Social
Bootstrap Neural Network
Muhamad
11.15 –11.35 ID026 Arima (P,D,Q) Model for
Safiih Lola
Time Series Forecasting
Sensitive Dependence on
Ummu
ID045 Initial Conditions for an
11.35 – 11.55 ’Atiqah
(C) Example of Markov Maps:
Mohd Roslan
Skewed Doubling Map
Constructing Material &
Syerrina Social Deprivation Index in
11.55 – 12.15 ID050
Zakaria Setiu Wetlands: Factor
Analysis
Two Stage Portfolio Selection
ID051 Kashif Bin and Optimization Model with
12.15 – 12.30
(C) Zaheer The Hybrid Particle Swarm
Optimization
Forecasting of Currency
Inflow and Outflow in Bank
Agnes Ona
12.30 – 12.45 ID052 Indonesia Based on Quantile
Bliti Puka
Regression Neural Network
Model
Modeling and Estimation on
Kho Chia Long Memory Stochastic
12.45 – 13.00 ID058
Chen Volatility for Index Prices of
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
(C) Chairperson

MAHARANI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application – Finance/Social
On Parameter Estimation of a
Nurkhairany
Replicated Linear Functional
14.00 – 14.15 ID007 Amyra
Relationship Model for
Mokhtar
Circular Variables
Ahmad Queuing System
14.15 – 14.30 ID053 Ridhuan Effectiveness at School
Hamdan Cooperative
Survival Analysis of
Companies’ Delisting Time in
14.30 – 14.45 ID056 Titis Miranti Indonesian Stock Exchange
Using Bayesian Multiple-
Period Logit Approach
Modelling and Forecasting
ID088 Asma’
14.45 – 15.00 External Trade using ARIMA
(C) Mustafa
and GARCH Model
Industrial Application – Environment/Agro
Convergence of Modified
Homotopy Perturbation
Zainidin K.
16.00 – 16.20 ID064 Method for Fredholm-
Eshkuvatov
Volterra Integro-Differential
Equation of order m
ID080 Nur Arina Chicken Product Production
16.20 – 16.35
(C) Bazilah Aziz Optimizer
Detection of Vocs from
Norhaiza
16.35 – 16.50 ID041 Ganoderma Boninense
Ahmad
Infected Oil Palm Tissue
Modelling the Effect of
Hydraulic Conductivity on
Zainal Abdul
16.50 – 17.05 ID038 One Dimensional
Aziz
Contaminant Transport in
RBF System
17.05 REFRESHMENT
(C) Chairperson

MAHSURI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application – Medical/Healthcare
Fast Computation of Disk and
Annulus with Circular Slits
Ali Hassan
Map of Bounded Multiply
11.15 –11.35 ID061 Mohamed
Connected Regions with
Murid
Application to Biomedical
Image Processing
Simulation of Aqueous
Humour Flows and
ID044 Zuhaila
11.35 – 11.55 Deformation of DMD in a 3-
(C) Ismail
Dimensional Anterior
Chamber
Generalizations of DNA
Fong Wan Splicing Systems with One
11.55 – 12.15 ID032
Heng Palindromic Restriction
Enzyme
ID004 Siti Rohani Multi-Population Mortality
12.15 – 12.30
(C) Mohd Nor Model: A Practical Approach
Some Statistics on
Cardiogenic Shock
Padmaa
12.30 – 12.45 ID005 Complicating St-Elevation
Venkatason
Myocardial Infarctions in
Malaysian Patients.
Modelling of Non-Newtonian
Blood Flow through a
Norliza
12.45 – 13.00 ID016 Bifurcated Artery with the
Mohd Zain
Presence of an Overlapping
Stenosis
(C) Chairperson

MAHSURI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILION
Industrial Application – Medical/Healthcare & Agri
Risk Factors of
Cardiovascular Disease
Nurliyana among St Elevation
14.00 – 14.15 ID014
Juhan Myocardial Infarction Male
Patients in Malaysia from
2006 to 2013
Model-Building using
ID029 Khuneswari
14.15 – 14.30 Multiple Binary Logit on
(C) Gopal Pillay
Mortality of ICU Patient’s
Correlational Study of Air
Aaishah
Pollution-Related Diseases
Radziah
14.30 – 14.45 ID030 (Asthma, Conjunctivitis and
Binti
Urti) in Johor Bahru,
Jamaludin
Malaysia
Numerical Simulation of non-
Normazni Newtonian Blood Flow in a
14.45 – 15.00 ID048
Abdullah 3D Stenosed Bifurcated
Artery
Farah Aini Fractional Metapopulation of
16.00 – 16.20 ID063
Abdullah Measles Model
Quality Control for Bull
16.20 – 16.35 ID036 Arifah Bahar
Semen in Malaysia
Estimating Risk Factors of
Neonatal Death in a
Zarina Mohd
16.35 – 16.50 ID073 Malaysian Public Neonatal
Khalid
Intensive Care Unit using a
Survival Analysis Approach
Wan
A Model of Unsteady Blood
ID077 Rukaida
16.50 – 17.05 Flow in Microcirculation for
(C) Wan
4-Node Networks
Abdullah
17.05 REFRESHMENT
(C) Chairperson

WEDNESDAY, August 2, 2017 DEWAN INDERAPUTERA

Industrial Application – Manufacturing, Energy & Agro
Invited & Contributed Session III
Determinants of Electricity
Mohd Tahir
14.00 – 14.20 ID040 Consumption for Asean
Ismail
Countries
Mathematical Modelling for
Fish Feed Formulation of
Nur Aidya
14.20 – 14.40 ID071 Mystus Nemurus Sp. Catfish:
Hanum Aizam
Optimizing Growth and
Nutrients Requirements
Describing the Orientation of
Taufiq Khairi
ID060 a Conducting Spheroid Based
14.40 – 15.00 Ahmad
(C) on the First Order
Khairuddin
Polarization Tensor
Ahmad Razin
15.00 – 15.15 ID083 Subsea Cable Laying Problem
Zainal Abidin
MAHARAJA SUITES,
WEDNESDAY, August 2, 2017
PULAI PAVILON
Industrial Application – Manufacturing
Contributed Parallel Session III
On Approximation of the
Nor Hafizah
14.00 – 14.15 ID006 Concentration Parameter for
Moslim
von Mises Distribution
Some Numerical Methods for
Maizatul
ID042 Solving Geodesic Active
14.15 – 14.30 Nadirah
(C) Contour Model on Image
Mustaffa
Segmentation Process
Free Vibration of Layered
Nurul Izyan Cylindrical Shell Filled with
14.30 – 14.45 ID072
Mat Daud Fluid using Spline
Approximation
MILP Model for Integrated
Nur Intan Line Balancing and Model
14.45 – 15.00 ID074 Liyana Mohd Sequencing Problems for
Azmi Mixed-Model Two-Sided
Assembly Line
A study on the optimal felling
15.00 – 15.15 ID087 Noryanti Nasir rate in the palm oil plantation
system
(C) Chairperson

MAHARANI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILON
Industrial Application – Environment/Agro
Sayed
Mathematical Modeling for
14.00 – 14.15 ID047 Ameenuddin
Control Released Fertilizer
Irfan
ID057 Rainfall, Evapotranspiration
Aimi Athirah
14.15 – 14.30 (C) and Rainfall Deficit Trend in
Ahmad
Alor Setar, Malaysia
Comparative Performance of
ID059 Noraini Support Vector Regressions
14.30 – 14.45
Ibrahim for Accurate Streamflow
Predictions
Spatial Grouping of
Nur Syazwin
14.45 – 15.00 ID084 Homogeneous River Flow
Mansor
Process in Johor
Performance Evaluation of a
Siti Mariam New Hybrid Multivariate
15.00 – 15.15 ID086
Norrulashikin Meteorological Model
Analysis: A Simulation Study
MAHSURI SUITES,
PULAI PAVILON
Industrial Application – Energy/Transportation
Forecasting Model for Crude
Norshela
14.00 – 14.15 ID017 Oil Price With Structural
Mohd Noh
Break
ID020 An Analysis of Aircraft
14.15 – 14.30 Floridah Jelon
(C) Taxiing Route
Development of Radionuclide
Nurlyana
14.30 – 14.45 ID023 Dispersion Modeling Based
Omar
on Gaussian Plume Model
Detecting Gas Leaks in a
Norazlina
14.45 – 15.00 ID085 Pipeline Using Reduced
Subani
Order Modelling
Transformation Pressurized
Azmirul
15.00 – 15.15 ID089 Water Reactor (AP1000) to
Ashaari
Fuzzy Graph
(C) Chairperson

Malaysian Mathematics in Industry

Workshop 2017
Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Welcoming & Opening
8.30 – 8.45
Remarks
Dewan Inderaputera
Industrial Problems
8.45 – 9.30
Presentation
Ramayana Lounge,
Pulai Pavilion
Parallel Discussion on
the Industrial Problems
Maharaja Suites,
10.00 – 13.00 J-Biotech Sdn.Bhd.
Pulai Pavilion
Photo Laser Grammetry Maharani Suites,
Sdn. Bhd. Pulai Pavilion
Cinta Terrace,
13.00 – 14.00 Lunch Break Level 2, CintaAyu
Hotel
Dewan Inderaputera
&
Invited & Contributed Pulai Pavilion
14.00 – 15.15
Parallel Session III (Maharaja Suites,
Maharani Suites,
Mahsuri Suites)
Wrap-up Session on the
Industrial Problems
15.15 – 16.00
&
Photo Session Dewan Inderaputera
16.00 – 16.30 Closing Ceremony
Ramayana Lounge,
16.30 Refreshment
Pulai Pavilion

J-Biotech Sdn. Bhd.
Company Profile
Johor Biotechnology and Biodiversity Corporation (J-Biotech) is a

statutory body under the purview of the Johor State Government. It
was established in October 2005 and was incorporated in April 2007
under the state enactment No.3 (2006) with the mission of unifying
agenda for the Johor Bioeconomy and Biodiversity ecosystem
development towards Johor Progressive Aspiration. J-Biotech is
responsible for developing Johor into a prime mover of
biotechnology and biodiversity in southern Malaysia. The key
functions of J-Biotech are as follows:
1) Leading Johor Bioeconomy DNA,
2) Centre of Gravity for sustainable Bioeconomy ecosystem,
3) Adapting sustainable approach in preservation, conservation of
biodiversity and bio resources,
4) Cultivating competitive talent, SMEs and community.
The key functions support the vision of J-Biotech that is to benefit
the stakeholders with the Bioeconomy advances in a sustainable
manners.
Problem Statement
Seagrasses are considered as one of the most important species as

they play key ecological roles in various types of ecosystems and
also provide a food source for endangered animal species. However,
they are continually threatened by human activities, causing their
degradation and possible habitat loss. In State and National
Biodiversity Strategic Plan, Johor is to be made one of the marine
research and reference centres in seagrass research for the purpose of
continuous research collaboration between government agencies,
universities, private sector and NGOs. As the preliminary study
towards achieving this plan, an analysis on the ability of seagrass to
grow in Johor need to be carried out. Factors involved in determining
the growth of the seagrass and the data essential for the analysis are
to be identified.

Photo Laser Grammetry

Sdn Bhd
Company Profile
Photo Laser Grammetry Sdn Bhd (PLG) was developed in 2010

under the UTM-MTDC Symbiosis Programme. In 2015, PLG was
fully appointed as one of the spin-off company in Universiti
Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) with the expertise in geospatial system
developer and data provider. PLG offers geospatial mapping services
using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology which
consists of UAV-based airborne LiDAR, mobile LiDAR and
terrestrial LiDAR for various types of applications. Currently, PLG
has successfully developed a multi-sensors airborne geospatial
mapping technology integrating LiDAR, multi-spectral and thermal
imaging sensors for capturing high resolution multi images and
three-dimensional geospatial features.
Problem Statement
1) How to apply K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and K-Dimension

Partioning/indexing (K-DTree) method for the processing of 3D
point clouds data using Matlab software? How to use these two
methods to speed up the processing time for big dataset of 3D
point clouds data?
2) How to apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in analyzing

the geometrical component of the 3D point clouds data? How to
produce the Matric A of the point clouds dataset using PCA?

Abstracts

ID004
Multi-Population Mortality Model: A Practical Approach

SITI ROHANI BINTI MOHD NORa, FADHILAH YUSOFb & ARIFAH
BAHARc
a,b,c
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
srohani.mn@utm.my, fadhilahy@utm.my, arifahbahar@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The development of demographic modelling for multiple populations has
attracted the attention of many demographers, academicians, and
practitioners. There are various demographic modelling for single
population that have been introduced thus far. Hence, the growing number
of multi-population mortality models over the recent years signifies the
failure of the existing single-population mortality models in identifying the
recent trends and changes in mortality rate. In this case, there are many
shortcomings and lack of improvements in finding the best fitted multi-
population model. In the present study, we extend the Hyndman-Ullah
method for coherent multi-population mortality model in Malaysia.
Hyndman-Ullah method comprises of three functional data analysis (FDA)
procedures which are the choice of smoothing technique, dimension
reduction and forecasting methods. The aim of this paper is to propose an
extension of Hyndman-Ullah method in term of these three key aspects of
FDA approach. The performance of the new and original methods are
demonstrated by applying them to Malaysia mortality of male and female
and by comparing the significant of both methods to the new annuity
portfolio and traditional actuarial methods. Finally, the performance of
Hyndman-Ullah method and extension of Hyndman-Ullah method was
compared. The results showed that the extension of Hyndman-Ullah model
with adjusted FDA gives better fit compared to the unadjusted FDA.
Keywords: Functional Data Analysis; Hyndman-Ullah; Coherent Mortality Model

ID005
Some Statistics on Cardiogenic Shock Complicating ST-

Elevation Myocardial Infarctions in Malaysian Patients
PADMAA VENKATASONa, YONG ZULINA ZUBAIRIb , IMRAN
HAFIDZa & AHMAD SYADI ZUHDIa
a
Cardiology Unit, University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
padmaavenkatason@yahoo.com
b
Centre for Foundation Studies in Science, University of Malaya, Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia.
yzulina@um.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction
(STEMI) carries an extremely high mortality. Its incidence and outcome in
Malaysia has never been fully reported and hence unknown. A total of
16,517 STEMI patients were identified from the Malaysian National
Cardiovascular Disease - Acute Coronary Syndrome database registry
(NCVD-ACS) from year 2006 to 2013. Patients were divided into 2 groups:
Cardiogenic Shock (Killip IV on presentation) and Non-Cardiogenic Shock
(Killip I to III on presentation). Comparisons in clinical characteristics, in-
hospital invasive/non-invasive therapy and mortality were made between
the 2 groups. Multivariate adjustment and binary logistic regression were
used to estimate the relative mortality risk ratios between the 2 groups and
to identify clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality among the patients
with CS. CS complicated 10.6% of all patients with STEMIs in our
population. They had unfavorable premorbid conditions and poor outcomes.
The in-hospital mortality rate was 34.1% and they were 7.14 times more
likely (adjusted RR) to die than the patients without CS. Intravenous
thrombolysis remained as the main urgent reperfusion modality.
Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) were done in only 33.6% of CS
cases. PCI conferred a 40% risk reduction over non-invasive therapy only.
Predictors of in-hospital mortality for patients with CS were identified as
age over 65, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic lung and kidney
disease. The mortality of CS complicating STEMI in Malaysia is high.
Early in-hospital PCI confers a 40% mortality risk reduction in our
population however the rate of PCI among patients with CS complicating
STEMI is still low. Efforts are being made to increase access to invasive
therapy for these patients.
Keywords: Cardiogenic shock; myocardial infarction; percutaneous coronary intervention;

mortality; acute coronary syndrome

ID006
On Approximation of the Concentration Parameter for von

Mises Distribution
NOR HAFIZAH MOSLIMa, YONG ZULINA ZUBAIRIb, ABDUL
GHAPOR HUSSINc & SITI FATIMAH HASSANd
a
Faculty of Industrial Sciences & Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, 26300
Gambang, Pahang
moslimnorhafizah@gmail.com
a,b,d
Centre for Foundation Studies in Science, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala
Lumpur
yzulina@um.edu.my, sfhassan@um.edu.my
c
Faculty of Defence Sciences and Technology, National Defence University of
Malaysia, Kem Sungai Besi, 57000 Kuala Lumpur
abdulghapor@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The von Mises distribution is the ‘natural’ analogue on the circle of the
Normal distribution on the real line and is widely used to describe circular
variables. The distribution has two parameters, namely mean direction, 𝜇𝜇
and concentration parameter, κ. Solutions to the parameters, however,
cannot be derived in the closed form. Noting the relationship of the κ to the
size of sample, this study determines the suitable value of parameter κ to
different values of sample size. The simulation study is carried out and
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used to test the goodness of fit for three level
of significance values.
Keywords: von Mises, circular variable, Monte Carlo, concentration parameter

ID007
On Parameter Estimation of a Replicated Linear

Functional Relationship Model for Circular Variables
NURKHAIRANY AMYRA MOKHTARa, YONG ZULINA ZUBAIRIb,
ABDUL GHAPOR HUSSINc & ROSSITA MOHAMAD YUNUSd
a,c
Faculty of Defence Sciences and Technology,National Defence University of
Malaysia, Kem Sungai Besi, 57000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
khairany.amyra@gmail.com, abdulghapor@gmail.com
b
Centre for Foundation Studies in Sciences, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia
yzulina@um.edu.my
d
Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia
rossita@um.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Replicated linear functional relationship model is often used to describe
relationships between two circular variables where both variables have error
terms and replicate observations are available. We derive the estimate of the
rotation parameter of the model using the maximum likelihood method. The
performance of the proposed method is studied through simulation, and it is
found that the biasness of the estimates is small, thus implying the
suitability of the method. Practical application of the method is illustrated
by real data set.
Keywords: circular variables; parameter estimation; von Mises distribution

ID008
Some Numerical Methods and Comparisons for Solving

Mathematical Model of Surface Decontamination by Clay
Solution
CHAI JIN SIAN a, YEAK SU HOE b& ALI HASSAN MOHAMED
MURID c
a,b,c
chaijs91@hotmail.com , s.h.yeak@utm.my
c
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Institute for
Scientific and Industrial Research, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor
Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
alihassan@utm.my
ABSTRACT
A clay solution model was formulated by a group of mathematicians at
MISG 2015 workshop in order to determine the effectiveness of clay
solution for surface decontamination. The decontamination process involved
the diffusion of bacteria into clay solution and the reaction of the clay
killing effect. The mathematical model is therefore a reaction-diffusion
type. Thus, finite difference method and method of lines with fourth-order
Runge-Kutta method are utilized to solve the model numerically. To obtain
stable solutions, von Neumann stability analysis is employed to evaluate the
stability of finite difference method. For stiff problem, Dormand-Prince
method is applied as the error estimate of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method.
MATLAB programming is selected for the computation of numerical
solutions. From the results obtained, fourth-order Runge-Kutta method has a
larger stability region and better accuracy of solutions compared to finite
difference method when solving the clay solution model. Moreover, a
numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the effect of different
thickness of clay solution on bacteria reduction. Results show that thick clay
solution is able to reduce the dimensionless bacteria concentration more
effectively.
Keywords: Reaction-diffusion; finite difference method; method of lines; von Neumann
stability analysis; Dormand-Prince method

ID012
Extrapolated Symmetrized Runge-Kutta Methods in

Solving Simple Harmonic Oscillations
ANNIE GORGEYa & NOR AZIAN MATb
a,b
Department of Mathematical, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti
Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjong Malim, Perak, Malaysia
annie_gorgey@fsmt.upsi.edu.my, nor.azian@fsmt.upsi.edu.my
ABSTRACT
The study is to show the effect of extrapolation on the numerical solution of
the symmetrized Runge-Kutta methods such as the symmetrized implicit
midpoint rule (SIMR) and symmetrized 2-stage Gauss method (SG2). The
efficiency between two modes of extrapolation; passive and active are
compared. This study is done theoretically and numerically on the simple
harmonic oscillator problem. The numerical experiments showed that active
extrapolation is more advantageous than passive extrapolation although
both modes of extrapolation of the symplectic methods are found to destroy
the symplectic property when applied to this problem. Passive extrapolation
is observed to show quadratic error growth for a short period of time while
the active extrapolation is observed to show linear error growth for a much
longer period of time. The behaviour of active extrapolation is also
observed to give more stable solutions for long time interval. The
symmetrized methods on the other although they are not symplectic nor
symmetric they showed promising results in solving simple harmonic
oscillations. The passive symmetrization is observed to perform better than
the active symemtrization.
Keywords: symmetrized Runge-Kutta method; harmonic oscillator

ID013
Effect of Thermal Stratification on MHD Flow of Nanofluid

in the Presence of Thermal Radiation and Electric Field
over a Stretching Sheet
YAHAYA SHAGAIYA DANIEla, ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZb, ZUHAILA
ISMAILc & FAISAL SALAHd
a,b,c
shagaiya12@gmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my, zuhaila@utm.my,
d
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Kordofan, Elobid,
51111, Sudan.
faisal19999@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we analyze the effects of thermal radiation, chemical reaction,
heat generation/absorption, magnetic and electric fields on unsteady natural
convection flow and heat transfer due to nanofluid over a permeable
stretching sheet. The transport equations incorporated into the analysis of
the impact of Brownian motion and thermophoresis, and passively
controlled boundary condition rather than actively, which is more realistic.
The solution for the velocity, temperature, and nanoparticle concentration
depends on the embedded parameters. A similarity solution is presented
which transformed the governing equations from nonlinear partial
differential equations to a couple of nonlinear ordinary differential
equations. This system of the equation is solved numerically using Keller
box method. Numerical results for the velocity, temperature, nanoparticle
concentration, skin friction, and Nusselt number are achieved. It is found
that the temperature is a decreasing function with the thermal stratification,
while the electric field increases the temperature. A comparison with the
previous investigation seen in the literature has been done and found to be in
good agreement with them.
Keywords: thermal stratification; electrical field; thermal radiation; MHD; heat

generation/absorption;

ID014
Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease Among ST
Elevation Myocardial Infarction Male Patients in Malaysia
from 2006 to 2013
NURLIYANA JUHANa, ZARINA MOHD KHALIDa, YONG ZULINA
ZUBAIRIb, AHMAD SYADI MAHMOOD ZUHDIc & WAN AZMAN
WAN AHMADc
a
liyana.juhan@gmail.com, zarinamkhalid@utm.my
b
Centre for Foundation Studies in Science, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia
yzulina@um.edu.my
c
Department of Internal Medicine, University Malaya Medical Centre, 50603 Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia
syadizuhdi@yahoo.co.uk
ABSTRACT
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of death in Malaysia
and globally. This study aimed to identify associated risk factors in
cardiovascular disease among acute coronary syndrome (ACS) - ST
elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) male patients and obtain a feasible
model to describe the data. A total of 16,673 STEMI male patients from 18
participating hospitals across Malaysia in the National Cardiovascular
Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry year
2006-2013 were analysed. Univariate analysis is conducted using a chi-
square test. Significant variables from the univariate analysis are further
analysed by a multivariate logistic analysis to identify the prognostic
factors. Model selection procedure is based on the forward selection
method. Statistical significance is considered if the p-value is less than 0.05.
Distribution of the patients that majority of male patients are less than 60
years of age. The most prevalent risk factor for male patients is smoking
(79.3%), followed by hypertension (54.9%) and diabetes mellitus (40.4%).
The multivariate model of STEMI male patients consists of seven
significant variables namely diabetes mellitus, hypertension, killip class,
age, renal disease, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and family
history of CVD. At univariate level, this study is consistent with the findings
from Malaysian National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS) where
smoking and Malay ethnic are significant risk factors. After adjustment in
multivariate logistic model, the risk factors for cardiovascular death among
male patients are related to age, premorbid condition such as diabetes
mellitus, hypertension and family history of CVD, clinical presentation such
as killip class, type of treatment such as PCI, last but not least relevant
comorbidity such as renal disease. Drastic efforts in the management of all
risk factors in males are needed to improve adherence outcomes.
Keywords: STEMI; cardiovascular; male, risk factor

ID015
A Review on Modeling and Control of Magnetorheological

Fluid Dampers
AKBAR BANITALEBI, MOHD ISMAIL ABD AZIZ & ZAINAL ABDUL
AZIZ
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Ibnu Sina Institute for
Scientific and Industrial Research, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM 81310,
Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
akbar.banitalebi@utm.my, mismail@utm.my, zainalaz@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Due to providing ride comfort and stability for drivers and passengers, the
advent of Magneto-Rheological (MR) fluid dampers has moved the
traditional vehicle suspension systems into a new era. The era of
extraordinary sophistication and versatility that promises to reshape the
modern automobile industry. Following the rapid researches on designing
and utilizing MR fluid dampers, one of the concerning aspects is to develop
models that can accurately describe their unique characteristics. This study
presents a review on models of MR damper that can be used for vibration
control of vehicle suspension.
Keywords: Magneto-rheological fluid dampers, Vehicle suspension systems, Vibration

ID016
Modelling of Non-Newtonian Blood Flow through a

Bifurcated Artery with the Presence of an Overlapping
Stenosis
NORLIZA MOHD ZAINa & ZUHAILA ISMAILb
a,b
liza291292@gmail.com, zuhaila@utm.my
ABSTRACT
In this current study, a mathematical modelling of non-Newtonian blood
flow is developed by treating the blood as a generalized power law model.
The presence of stenosis at parent’s arterial lumen has been accounted as an
overlapping shaped geometry in two-dimensional Cartesian coordinate
system. The streaming blood is assumed to be steady laminar flow, fully
developed and incompressible which flowing through an arterial bifurcation.
The whole channel wall is assumed as a rigid arterial wall with the no-slip
condition imposed to it. To solve the governing equations numerically, a
Galerkin weighted residual method is performed and a MATLAB code is
developed for that purpose. To validate the code, a comparison has been
made first with the results obtained from a numerical simulation by
COMSOL Multiphysics software. From the obtained results, the effects on
the blood flow characteristics such as the velocity profiles and the
streamlines patterns are observed and discussed in details.
Keywords: generalized power law, bifurcated artery, overlapping stenosis, Galerkin weighted
residual

ID017
Forecasting Model for Crude Oil Prices with Structural

Break
NORSHELA MOHD NOH a, ARIFAH BAHARb & ZAITUL
MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINc
a,b,c
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bharu Malaysia
a,b,c
shelanoh@gmail.com, arifah@utm.my, zmarlizawati@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Nowadays, in unstable economic environment, oil refining company is
facing fluctuating crude oil prices that causes unstable profit margin.
Fluctuating crude oil prices lead to difficulty in forecasting raw material
procurement followed by inefficient decision making in optimizing refining
company’s profit margin. In order to overcome the difficulty in forecasting
raw material procurement, an appropriate study of forecasting model is
needed. Thus the objective of this study is to model and forecast fluctuating
crude oil prices. In modeling crude oil prices, the existence of structural
break is very important to know because it may exhibit long memory
properties. In this study, we employ long memory test to West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) daily data from 2nd January 1986 to 13th February 2017
using log periodogram regression of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) and
Bai and Perron test to find break date. The results indicate that crude oil
prices have short memory with structural breaks. Using assumption that
future prices are affected by today’s price, we model and forecast crude oil
prices using geometric Brownian motion and mean reverting Ornstein-
Uhlenbeck process for 14 days, 30 days and 6 months. Results show that
forecasted crude oil prices are more accurate for short term using geometric
Brownian motion compared to mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Keywords: forecast; crude oil prices; structural break; long memory; Markov process

ID018
Mixed Convection Boundary Layer Flow of a Viscoelastic

Nanofluid Over a Heated and Cooled Circular Cylinder
RAHIMAH MAHATa, ABDUL RAHMAN MOHD KASSIMb &
SHARIDAN SHAFIEc
a
Universiti Kuala Lumpur Malaysian Institute of Industrial Technology, 81750
Johor Bahru, Johor.
rahimahm@unikl.edu.my
b
Faculty of Industrial Sciences & Technology Universiti Malaysia Pahang, 26300
Gambang, Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia.
rahmanmohd@ump.edu.my
c
Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia.
rahimahm@unikl.edu.my, sharidan@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The steady mixed convection boundary layer flow of a viscoelastic
nanofluid over a horizontal circular cylinder is numerically studied for both
cases of heated and cooled cylinders. Copper, Alumina and Titania in water
based-fluid is considered with the Prandtl number Pr = 6.2. The governing
partial differential equations are transformed into dimensionless forms using
an appropriate transformation and then solved numerically using the Keller-
box method. Numerical results obtained in the form of velocity distributions
and temperature profiles are presented for a range of values of the
dimensionless viscoelastic fluid parameter. Comparisons of the numerical
results with previous studies are presented. The involved governing
parameters are nanoparticle volume fraction parameter φ , mixed convection
parameter λ and viscoelastic parameter K .
Keywords: viscoelastic fluid; nanofluid; boundary layer; mixed convection; circular cylinder

ID019
Determination of Critical Factors for Quality and Safety

Management at Wood Based Furniture Industry
FATIN AMRINA A. RASHID a, JAFRI MOHD ROHANI b & KHIDZIR
ZAKARIA c
a
Department of Materials, Manufacturing & Industrial Engineering, Faculty of
Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor,
Malaysia
famrina2@live.utm.my
b
Mechanical Engineering,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
jafrimr@utm.my
c
Mechanical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor,
Malaysia
kihdzir@fkm.utm.my
ABSTRACT
Total quality management and total safety management are two key factors
that contribute to performance of an organization. As has been claimed by
various researchers that there is significant relationship between total quality
management and total safety management since they share similar
components. Safety is claimed as a dimension of quality and by eliminating
defects will also give effect to safety performance which the unsafe work
practices is claimed by previous researchers will be removed in the same
moments. The aim of this study is to identify factors to improve quality and
safety performance by determining critical factors of total quality
management and total safety management. Wood based furniture industry
located at Muar and Melaka was selected as the area of research. A set of
questionnaire was distributed to the stakeholders of selected companies to
investigate their perception towards quality and safety management
practices that affects quality and safety performance. The data collected is
analysed by using factor analysis method. As a result, the finding of the
research is a set of quality and safety management factors obtained that
include management commitment, education and training, workers’
involvement, communication and feedback, systems, rules and procedures,
work environment and culture, and promotion policies. These factors
function as the key that affecting the quality and safety performance of an
organization. These factors should be given special attention in order to
improve the quality and safety performance of a company.
Keywords: safety management; quality management; factor analysis; integration of

quality and safety management

ID020
An Analysis of Aircraft Taxiing Route

FLORIDAH JELONa, JAFRI MOHD ROHANIb & ISTAS FAHRURAZI
NUSYIRWANc
a,b
Department of Materials, Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering, Faculty of
Mechanical Engineering,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
jfloridah2@live.utm.my, jafrimr@utm.my
c
Department of Ocean, Aeronautics and Automotive Engineering, Faculty of
Mechanical Engineering
istaz@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The inefficiency of airport airside operation can lead the airport bottleneck
transportation network. Due of that, it causes the inefficiency of airport
taxiing operation and increase the total aircraft taxiing distance then lead to
flight delay. This study discusses the descriptive analysis of aircraft
departure and arrival taxiway, runway and gate assigned patterns among
three airlines provider. The data of runway usage and gate assigned among
three airlines providers for 2015 was collected at Kuala Lumpur
International Airport (KLIA) and has been sorted using Mysql. The results
show that during arrival activities, the most frequent runway usage for
Airline 1 is Runway 32L, Airline 2 is Runway 33 and Airline 3 is Runway
33. For departure activities, the most frequent runway usage for Airline 1 is
Runway 32R, Airline 2 is Runway 33 and Airline 3 is Runway 33. As a
conclusion, the study shows the pattern of runway and gate usage,
distribution of taxiway pattern among three airlines provider at KLIA. The
finding of this study will be important to improve the airport airside
operation and to reduce the flight delay as well as reduce the cost of
operation.
Keywords: airside activity; runway pattern; departure and arrival; KLIA

ID021
Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations Model Related to

Oxidation Pond Treatment System: A Case Study of
mPHO at Taman Timor Oxidation Pond, Johor
AMIR S. A. HAMZAHa & ALI H. M. MURIDb
a,b
Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
asahamzah@gmail.com, alihassan@utm.my
b
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Ibnu Sina
Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research (ISI-SIR), Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
alihassan@utm.my
ABSTRACT
This study presents a mathematical model examining wastewater pollutant
removal through an oxidation pond treatment system. This model was
developed to describe the reaction between microbe-based product mPHO
(comprising Phototrophic bacteria (PSB)), dissolved oxygen (DO) and
pollutant namely chemical oxygen demand (COD). It consists of coupled
advection-diffusion-reaction equations for the microorganism (PSB), DO
and pollutant (COD) concentrations, respectively. The coupling of these
equations occurred due to the reactions between PSB, DO and COD to
produce harmless compounds. Since the model is nonlinear partial
differential equations (PDEs), coupled, and dynamic, computational
algorithm with a specific numerical method, which is implicit Crank-
Nicolson method, was employed to simulate the dynamical behaviour of the
system. Furthermore, numerical results revealed that the proposed model
demonstrated high accuracy when compared to the experimental data.
Keywords: oxidation pond; nonlinear PDEs; PSB; implicit Crank-Nicolson.

ID023
Development of Radionuclide Dispersion Modeling Based

on Gaussian Plume Model
SHAZMEEN DANIAR SHAMSUDDIN, NURLYANA OMAR & MENG-
HOCK KOH
Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310
Johor Bahru, Malaysia
shazmeendaniar@gmail.com, nurlyana3@live.utm.my, kmhock@utm.my
ABSTRACT
It has come to attention that Malaysia have been aiming to build its own
nuclear power plant (NPP) for electricity generation in 2030 to diversify the
national energy supply and resources. As part of the regulation to build a
NPP, environmental risk assessment analysis which includes the
atmospheric dispersion assessment has to be performed as required by the
Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) prior to the
commissioning process. The assessment is to investigate the dispersion of
radioactive effluent from the NPP in the event of nuclear accident. This
article will focus on current development of atmospheric dispersion
modeling based on Gaussian Plume model. The code is written in Fortran
and has been bench-marked to a commercial atmospheric software,
HOTSPOT. The radionuclide release rate entering the Gaussian equation is
approximated to the value found in the Fukushima NPP accident in 2011.
Meteorological data of Manjung District, Perak of year 2013 is utilized for
the calculations. The simulations results show that the dispersion of
radionuclide effluent can travel as far as 80 km from the initial point of
release and the maximum air concentration of 1.2 x 1012 Bq-sec / m3 is
expected at 0.1 km from the release point. The results from our code are
found to be in good agreement with the one obtained from HOTSPOT, with
less than 1% discrepancy between the two.
Keywords: Gaussian plume mode; atmospheric dispersion; nuclear power plant accident;
emergency response plan

ID024
A Comparison of Method for Treating

Missing Daily Rainfall Data in Peninsular Malaysia
IZZAT FAKHRUDDIN KAMARUZAMAN a, WAN ZAWIAH WAN ZIN
b
& NORATIQAH MOHD ARIFF c
a,b,c
School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti
Kebangsaan Malaysia,
43600 UKM, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
izzat.kamaruzaman@mmu.edu.my, w_zawiah@ukm.edu.my, tqah@ukm.edu.my
a
Faculty of Business, Multimedia University, Jalan Ayer Keroh Lama
75450 Melaka, Malaysia
izzat.kamaruzaman@mmu.edu.my
ABSTRACT
This study modified a method for treating missing values in daily rainfall
data from 104 selected rainfall stations covering four zones in Peninsular
Malaysia which are Northwest, West, Southwest and East. The daily rainfall
data were obtained from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage
Malaysia (DID) for the periods of 1965 to 2015. The missing values
throughout the 51 years period were estimated using the various types of
weighting methods such as the inverse distance, modified correlation,
combination correlation with inverse distance and the proposed method
averaging correlation and inverse distance. In determining the best
imputation method, three test for evaluating model performance has been
used, namely the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MAE)
and correlation coefficient 𝑅𝑅. The findings of this study indicate that the
proposed method is more efficient than the traditional method. However, the
method may not work well when the correlation between target station and
neighbouring stations are less than 0.4. The homogeneity of the data series
was checked using the four types of homogeneity tests recommended by
Wijngaard et al. (2003), namely, the standard normal homogeneity test, the
Buishand range test, the Pettitt test, and the Von Neumann ratio test. There
are about more than 40% rainfall station that are estimated using proposed
method were homogenous for both variables which are annual rainfall and
annual maximum.
Keywords: Daily rainfall; imputation; inverse distance; homogeneity

ID026
Bootstrap Neural Network ARIMA (p,d,q) Model for Time

Series Forecasting
MUHAMAD SAFIIH LOLAa, NURUL HILA ZAINUDDINb, MOHD
NOR AFIQ MOHD RAMLEEc, MOHD FADLI HUSSINd & HIZIR
SOFYANe
a,b,c,d
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics, UMT, 21030 Kuala Nerus,
Terengganu, Malaysia
safiihmd@umt.edu.my, hila_zainuddin@gmail.com, afiqramlee91@gmail.com,
mohdfadlihussin@gmail.com,
a
Kenyir Research Institute, UMT, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
safiihmd@umt.edu.my
e
Statistics Department, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Acheh, Indonesia
hizir@unsyiah.ac.id
ABSTRACT
Accuracy is one of the important elements in forecasting time series model.
Thus, in order to produce an accurate as well as efficient result, the
bootstrap method is introduced in forecasting time series model.
Unfortunately, the bootstrap method didn’t get any attentions from
researcher in forecasting time series research. In order to improve the
accuracy of forecasting results, researchers have favored using hybrid neural
networks method with forecasting time series models such ARIMA,
SARIMA models, etc., instead of using bootstrap method. The aim of this
study is to develop hybrid forecasting models in order to produce accurate
as well as efficient forecasting results compared to NN-ARIMA and
ARIMA. Hence, to achieve our proposed model, a hybrid model of
bootstrap method with neural networks auto-regressive integrated moving
average (NN-ARIMA) models is proposed. We divide this study into two
phases, i.e. phase I and phase II and develop R programming language,
instead of using ready-made programming in existing software such as e-
views, SPSS, etc. To investigate the performance of the proposed models,
well-known real data sets, i.e. the Wolf’s sunspot data and the Malaysia/US
dollar exchange rate are used. The empirical results revealed that our
proposed models perform much better as compared to NN-ARIMA, ANNs
and ARIMA models in terms of the performance as well as it percentage in
both MAE and MSE for 35 points ahead and 64 points ahead. In addition,
our proposed model also produces the prediction values closed to the actual
values for both data sets. Thus, the proposed model can be used as the best
alternative model for forecasting particularly when forecasting model needs
high degree of accuracy in order to produce better forecasting results.
Keywords: forecasting; accuracy; the bootstrap method; Neural Network; ARIMA; R

programming.

ID027
Comparative Study on Maxwell and Navier Stokes Fluid

Equations with Pressure Gradient Over a Flat Plate for
Convective Boundary Layer Flow and Heat Transfer
AMBER NEHAN KASHIFa & ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZb
a,b
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science
ankashif@gmail.com, zainalabdaziz@gmail.com
a,b
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific & Industrial Research
ABSTRACT
In this article, Maxwell fluid over a flat plate for convective boundary layer
flow with pressure gradient parameter is considered. The aim of this study is
to compare and analyze the effects of the presence and absence of λ
(relaxation time), and also the effects of m (pressure gradient parameter)
and Pr (Prandtl number) on the momentum and thermal boundary layer
thicknesses. An approximation technique namely Homotopy Perturbation
Method (HPM) has been used with an implementation of Adam and Gear
Method's algorithms. The obtained results have been compared for zero
relaxation time and also pressure gradient parameter with the published
work of Fathizadeh and Rashidi. The current outcomes are found to be in
good agreement with the published results. Physical interpretations have
been given for the effects of the m, Pr and β (Deborah number) with λ. This
study will play an important role in industrial and engineering applications.
Keywords: Maxwell fluid equation; Navier Stokes equations; Pressure gradient;
Relaxation time; Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM); Adams Method (AM); Gear
Method (GM)

ID028
Convergence Rate for the Method of Finding the Largest

Eigenvalue of Nonnegative Polynomials
NUR FADHILAH IBRAHIM & NUR AZWANI ALIAS
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu,
21030 Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
nurfadhilahibrahim@yahoo.com, azwani.alias@umt.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Eigenvalue problem can be found in many fields such as aquatic
conservation, ship structure and marine energy system. In 2014, an
algorithm for finding the largest eigenvalue of nonnegative polynomials was
introduced by Ibrahim. The method has been proven convergent but its rate
of convergence has not been discussed in literature. In this paper we will
show that the rate of convergence for the method is linear.
Keywords: convergence rate; iterative method; eigenvalue; nonnegative polynomial

ID029
Model-Building using Multiple Binary Logit on Mortality

of ICU Patients
KHUNESWARI GOPAL PILLAY & SITI AISYAH MOHD PADZIL
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Technology and
Human Development,
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Maalaysia, 86400 Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, Johor,
Malaysia
khuneswari@uthm.edu.my, aisyahpadzil@gmail.com.my
ABSTRACT
Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is commonly associated with a high mortality rate
because of its complexity of treatments. Although there were many
researchers modelled mortality of ICU patients, but the study of statistical
modelling on mortality of ICU patients often neglected the explanation on
the model-building process. Hence, this research was interested to illustrate
clearly the model-building process using Multiple Binary Logit (MBL) as
well as to determine the factors that affect the mortality of ICU patients and
also to predict the probability of mortality risk. The ICU patient’s data were
retrieved from Hospital Sultanah Aminah Johor. The data comprises of five
categorical variables (race, sex, organfail, comorbid and mecvent) and three
continuous variables (age and SAPS II score in the ward (s2sadm) and
during discharge (s2s disch)). Four phases of model-building which are all
possible models, selected models, best model and goodness of fit test were
carried out and the process was illustrated step by step. All possible models
were considered up to second-order interaction. In order to obtain a set of
selected models (with significant variables), a progressive elimination (one
by one, least significant first) of the insignificant variables is employed.
Model selection criteria AIC, corrected AIC (AICc) and BIC were used to
determine the best model among the selected models. To ensure the best
model validity and appropriateness, Pearson chi-square test and deviance
chi-square test were conducted. The results showed that the factors affects
the mortality of ICU patient’s in Johor are age, SAPS II score during
discharge, mecvent and the interaction between age and SAPS II score
during discharge. In conclusion, the study shows that the elderly patients
have a greater risk of mortality after discharge from the hospital and SAPS
II score provides a good indication in predicting hospital mortality.
Keywords: mortality; model-building; multiple binary logit; four phases; model selection
criteria

ID030
Correlational Study of Air Pollution-Related Diseases

(Asthma, Conjunctivitis and URTI) in Johor Bahru,
Malaysia
‘AAISHAH RADZIAH BINTI JAMALUDINa, FADHILAH YUSOFb ,
RAHMAH MOHD LOKOMANc, ZAINURA ZAINOON NOORd & NOR
ELIZA ALIASe
a,b,c
d
Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security, Universiti Teknologi
e
Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti
Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
aaishahradziah@gmail.com , fadhilahy@utm.my ,
rahmah.mohdlokoman@gmail.com,
zainurazn@utm.my & noreliza@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Asthma, conjunctivitis and upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) are the
common problems that significantly impair patient’s quality of life.
Whether air pollution serves as a risk factor for the development of these
diseases remains elusive. Therefore, in this study 3 pollution related
diseases, namely asthma, conjunctivitis and URTI will be studied in terms
of their trend, behaviour and their association with the influential factors
such as air pollution parameter and climate variables. The association of
these diseases with air pollution parameters such as Ground Level Ozone
(GLO), Nitrogen Dioxide (NOX), Particulate matter (PM10), and Sulphur
Dioxide (S02) and climate variables such as rainfall, relative humidity and
temperature will be determined by Pearson correlation and Poisson
regression model. The study found that asthma disease closely associated
with NO2, PM10, and SO2, whereas conjunctivitis closely associated with
PM10 and SO2 and URTI has close links with all the parameters of air
pollution; GLO, NO2, PM10, and SO2. Climate change might be one of the
influential factors that may cause the variation of the diseases and the results
revealed that all diseases have a significant correlation with rainfall,
temperature, and relative humidity. This study shows that PM10 is the most
abundant source that contributes to asthma, conjunctivitis and URTI.
Therefore, the local authorities such as the Department of Environment need
to reinforce the laws in planning and monitoring the source of PM10 which
comes from motor vehicles, dust from construction, landfills, agriculture,
industrial sources and windblown dust from open lands. This piece of
knowledge also hopefully can help the relevant authorities and health sector
in planning the necessary precautionary system to the public regarding air
pollution related diseases in Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
Keywords: asthma; conjunctivitis; URTI, air pollution, Poisson regression model

ID031
Potential of Plotting Positions for Intensity-Duration-

Frequency Curves with Short Rainfall Records
NORATIQAH MOHD ARIFF, ABDUL AZIZ JEMAIN & MOHD AFTAR
ABU BAKAR
School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti
Kebangsaan Malaysia,
43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
tqah@ukm.edu.my, azizj@ukm.edu.my, aftar@ukm.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves represent the relationship
between storm intensity, storm duration and return period. The IDF curves
available are mostly done by fitting series of annual maximum rainfall
intensity to parametric distributions. However, the lengths of annual rainfall
records, especially for small scaled data, are not always enough. Rainfall
records of less than 50 years are usually deemed insufficient to
unequivocally identify the probability distribution of the annual rainfall.
Thus, this study introduces an alternative approach that replaces the need for
parametric fitting by using empirical distribution based on plotting positions
to represent annual maximum rainfall series. Subsequently, these plotting
positions are used to build IDF curves. The IDF curves found are then
compared to the IDF curves yielded from the parametric GEV distribution
which is a common basis for IDF curves. This study indicates that IDF
curves obtained using plotting positions are similar to IDF curves found
using GEV distribution for storm events.
Keywords: Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF); plotting positions; storm events; L-

moments

ID032
Generalizations of DNA Splicing Systems with One

Palindromic Restriction Enzyme
WAN HENG FONG & NURUL IZZATY ISMAIL
Malaysia,
81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia
fwh@utm.my, iamnurulizzaty1112@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
In Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) splicing system, the potential effect of sets
of restriction enzymes and a ligase that allow DNA molecules to be cleaved
and re-associated to produce further molecules is modelled mathematically.
This modelling is done in the framework of formal language theory, in
which the nitrogen bases, nucleotides and restriction sites are modelled as
alphabets, strings and rules respectively. The molecules resulting from a
splicing system is depicted as the splicing language. In this research, the
splicing languages resulting from DNA splicing systems with one
palindromic restriction enzyme for one and two (non-overlapping) cutting
sites are generalized as regular expressions. These generalizations provide
the corresponding splicing languages theoretically, which depict the results
from in vitro experiments which are often costly and time consuming.
Keywords: DNA; formal language theory; palindromic; restriction enzyme; splicing

system

ID033
Parametric Estimation Methods for Bivariate Copula in

Rainfall Application
RAHMAH BINTI MOHD LOKOMAN & FADHILAH YUSOF
Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
rahmah.mohdlokoman@gmail.com, fadhilahy@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Hydrological phenomena such as drought, flood, and rainfall are one of the
natural phenomena that often provide dependent multivariate variables. The
correlation of the hydrologic dependent variables can be described by using
copula. To determine a specified copula structure that fitted with the
marginal variables, the copula dependence parameter needs to be estimated.
This study focuses on the application of parametric approaches in estimating
the copula dependence parameter. The performance of three parameter
estimation methods namely, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation,
inference function of margins (IFM), and maximization by parts (MBP) is
compared in the simulation and empirical studies. For empirical study, 44
years (1970-2014) of daily rainfall at two rain gauge stations, Station Kuala
Krai and Station Ulu Sekor are used. The correlation of the two stations is
statistically significant at 0.4137. The simulation and empirical studies are
limited to the case of bivariate copulas. The result from the simulation study
shows that when the sample size is small (n < 1000), IFM performs better
than MLE and MBP. While, when the sample size is large (n ≥ 1000), MBP
performs better than MLE and IFM. The results from the empirical study
also show that MBP performs better than MLE and IFM when the sample
size is large and this is consistent with the result from the simulation study.
Thus, in order to estimate a precise Copula dependence parameter, 𝜃𝜃 it can
be concluded that for parametric approaches, IFM is preferred for small
sample size and MBP is preferred for larger sample size. The results
obtained in this study highlight the importance of estimating the dependence
structure of the hydrological data. By using the fitted copula, Malaysian
Meteorological Department will able to generate hydrological events for a
system performance analysis such as flood and drought control system.
Keywords: bivariate copula; maximum likelihood; inference function of margins;

maximization by parts; rainfall

ID034
Solution for Nonlinear Duffing Oscillator using Variable

Order Variable Stepsize Block Method
AHMAD FADLY NURULLAH RASEDEEa, MOHAMMAD HASAN
ABDUL SATHARb, NORIZARINA ISHAKc, HAZIZAH MOHD IJAM d
MOHAMED SULEIMANe & ZARINA BIBI IBRAHIMf
a
Faculty of Economics and Muamalat, Islamic Science University of Malaysia,
78100 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
fadlynurullah@usim.edu.my
b
Centre of Foundation Studies for Agricultural Science, Putra University of
Malaysia,
43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
hanaz_3704@yahoo.com
c
Faculty of Science and Technology, Islamic Science University of Malaysia,
78100 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
norizarina@usim.edu.my
d,e,f
Institute for Mathematical Research, Putra University of Malaysia,
43400 Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
m1suleimanupm@gmail.com, hazz611@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Real life phenomena found in various fields such as engineering, physics,
biology and communication theory can be modeled as nonlinear higher
order ordinary differential equations, particularly the Duffing oscillator.
Analytical solutions for these differential equations can be time consuming
whereas, conventional numerical solutions may lack accuracy. In this
research, we propose a block multistep method integrated with a variable
order step size (VOS) algorithm for solving these Duffing oscillators
directly. The proposed VOS Block method provides an alternative
numerical solution by reducing computational cost (time) but without loss of
accuracy. Numerical simulations are compared with known exact solutions
for proof of accuracy and against current numerical methods for proof of
efficiency (time taken).
Keywords: Duffing oscillator; multistep method; ordinary differential equations

ID035
Dynamical Behaviours of Prey-Predator Fishery Model

with Harvesting Affected by Toxic Substances
ANG TAU KEONG, HAMIZAH M SAFUAN & KAVIKUMAR JACOB
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Technology and
Human Development
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, 86400 Parit Raja, Johor, Malaysia
taukeong1018@gmail.com, hamizahs@uthm.edu.my, kavi@uthm.edu.my
ABSTRACT
In this paper we consider a harvesting model of predator-prey fishery in
which the prey is directly infected by some external toxic substances. The
toxic infection is indirectly transmitted to the predator during the feeding
process. The model is a modified version from the classic Lotka-Volterra
predator-prey model. The stability and bifurcation analyses are addressed.
Numerical simulations of the model are performed and bifurcation diagrams
are studied to investigate the dynamical behaviours between the predator
and the prey. The effects of toxicity and harvesting on the stability of steady
states found in the model are discussed.
Keywords: harvesting; fishery; toxicant; predator; prey

ID036
Quality Control for Bull Semen in Malaysia

ARIFAH BAHARa, ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZb, MOHD SHAHIR
SHAMSIR OMARc, ZAITUL MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINd &
NORHAIZA AHMADe
a,b,d
Scientific and Industrial Research
zainalaz@utm.my, arifah@utm.my, zmarlizawati@utm.my
c
Department of Biosciences and Health Sciences, Faculty of Biosciences and
Medical Engineering
shahir@utm.my
a,b,d,e
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science,
norhaiza@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Quality control (QC) of the semen is the main factor that contributes to the
successful process of fertilization. However, it is still a huge challenge in
managing QC for Malaysian semen production centres (MSPCs) supplying
bull semen to breeders and State Department of Veterinary (SDV). MSPCs
are moving away from subjective semen assessment that is largely
uncorrelated to field fertility, to objective semen analyses that incorporate
computer assisted sperm analysis (CASA). CASA is a powerful tool for the
objective assessment of sperm motility and is now frequently used for
evaluating semen quality but yet not routinely practiced in the industry of
bull semen quality in Malaysia. A quantitative analysis (QA) approach to
semen analysis using a combination of CASA and TOPSIS (Technique for
Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method can provide
MSPCs with an improved QC for bull semen production. This paper
describes how this QA approach could be applied in MSPCs to establish QC
procedures of bull semen production before the release of the product in the
field.
Keywords: Quality control; quantitative analysis; CASA; TOPSIS; bull semen

ID037
Approximate Analytical Solution of the MHD Powell-

Eyring Fluid Flow near Accelerated Plate
FAWZIA MANSOUR ELNIELa, ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZb, FAISAL
SALAHc & SHAYMAA MUSTAFAd
a,b,d
fawziae@hotmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my, shaymaamustafa59@gmail.com
a,b,d
c
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Kordofan, Elobid,
51111, Sudan
faisal19999@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
In this article, the non-linear equation of unsteady state flow of
magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Powell-Eyring fluid is solved by using
Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM). The fluid is assumed to be
flowing under the effect of MHD field. Both cases of constant and
accelerated plate are examined. The results of the proposed model are
compared with previous result carried out by using Homotopy Perturbation
Method (HPM). Additionally, the proposed results are compared with a
numerical solution that is obtained by using Mathematica solver NDSolve.
Graphically, it is shown that both solutions are having almost the same
behaviour. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to highlight the importance of
the influence of the different non-Newtonian parameters on the velocity
profile.
Keywords: Powell-Eyring fluid; non-linear equations; Adomian Decomposition Method
(ADM)

ID038
Modelling the Effect of Hydraulic Conductivity on One

Dimensional Contaminant Transport in RBF System
SHAYMAA MUSTAFAa, ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZb, ARIFAH BAHARc &
MOHD KHAIRUL NIZAR SHAMSUDDINd
a,b,c
Scientific & Industrial Research
shaymaamustafa59@gmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my, arifah@utm.my
a,b,c
d
National Hydraulics Research Institute Malaysia (NAHRIM), Lot 5377, Jalan Putra
Permai,
43300 Seri Kembangan, Selangor, Malaysia
nizar@nahrim.gov.my
ABSTRACT
Riverbank filtration (RBF) is a surface water technology that is based on the
natural treatment of filtration instead of the use of chemicals, to pre-treat
surface water and provides public water supplies. Hydraulic conductivity
value is one of the significant factors affecting the water quality in RBF
systems. In this article, an analytical modelling is developed to investigate
the effect of this parameter on one dimensional contaminant transport in
RBF system. The model is solved by using Green’s function method
approach. The model is applied for the first RBF system conducted in
Malaysia. Generally, the results show that the increase of hydraulic
conductivity value leads to an increase in contaminant concentration in
pumping well area.
Keywords: analytical modelling; hydraulic conductivity; riverbank filtration systems

ID039
Extreme Modelling of Missing Acacia Mangium Height

Data
MOHD BAKRI ADAMa, NORAZMAN NORDINb & MOHAMMAD
ROSLAN MOHAMAD KASIMc
a
Institute of Mathematical Research, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM
Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
pmbakri@gmail.com
b
KPJ Healthcare University College, Malaysia
norazmannrdn@gmail.com
c
Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor,
Malaysia
mohdroslan@upm.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Logging activity is one of the most important activities for tropical
countries including Malaysia, as it produces quality trees for papers. One of
the important tree species is the Acacia Mangium which produces a soft
tree for papermaking enterprises. The papers are exported to several
European countries which have high demand for paper due to the rapid
development of the printing industry. Thus we analyze the height for
individual trees. We have investigated the maximum height of the trees
from 1990 to 2006 and then used Extreme Value Theory to fit data into
extreme value model. Some of the data are missing and three imputation
methods have been taken to solve this problem.
Keywords: Acacia Mangium height; extreme value theory; imputation

ID040
Determinants of Electricity Consumption for Asean

Countries
MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL, NADHILAH MAHMUD & ROSMANJAWATI
ABDUL RAHMAN
School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Pulau
Pinang, Malaysia
m.tahir@usm.my, nadhilahmahmud@gmail.com, rosmanjawati@usm.my
ABSTRACT
As the economy expands, the use of electricity also increases from year to
year. Thus, it is important to identify the factors that contribute to electricity
consumptions (EC). This study investigates the short-run, long-run and
causal relationship between seven members of ASEAN countries electricity
consumption and some other determinants using vector autoregression
(VAR) framework for the period from 1980 to 2013. The results show that
the effect of the chosen determinants is different among the seven countries.
It reveals that a unidirectional causality running from Gross Domestic
product (GDP) to EC in Singapore and Thailand, a unidirectional causality
running from carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to EC in Indonesia and
Thailand, EC Granger causes CO2 emissions in Malaysia, while a
bidirectional causality between EC and CO2 emissions in Vietnam. In
addition, the variance decomposition finds that the fluctuations of EC in
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore are accounted by their own
shock in the long-run.
Keywords: electricity consumption; VAR; Granger causality; variance decomposition

ID041
Detection of VOCs from Ganoderma boninense Infected Oil

Palm Tissue
ARIFAH BAHARa, NORHAIZA AHMADb, ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZc,
SHAJARAHTUNNUR JAMILd, ZAHARAH IBRAHIMe & ZAITUL
MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINf
a,c,f
Industrial and Scientific Research
arifah@utm.my, zainalaz@utm.my, zmarlizawati@utm.my
a,b,f
norhaiza@utm.my
d
Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
shajarah@utm.my
e
Department of Biosciences and Health Sciences, Faculty of Biosciences & Medical
Engineering,
zaharah@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Agri-Diagostics Sdn. Bhd. (Agri-D) uses zNOSE™ from Electronic Sensor
Technologies Inc. to detect specific volatile organic compounds (VOCs).
The zNOSE combines standard Gas Chromatography (GC) with a
proprietary Surface Acoustic Waves (SAW) technology to deliver a near
real-time and highly sensitive sensor. Agri-D is in the process of
confirming VOCs that can indicate the presence of Ganoderma infection in
oil palms.. This study was conducted on 47 trees consisting of 188 points of
inspection and 18 VOCs that were statistically analysed. Based on principal
component analysis (PCA), biplots from selected principal components
appear to indicate that severely infected trees (Status 3) could be easily
distinguished from trees that are healthy (Status 1) and those that are
infected without fruiting body (Status 2). In addition, PLS-DA (partial least
squares – discriminant analysis) is also carried out to determine the
percentage of detection accuracy. It is chosen because the response variable
(Status 1-3) is categorical. Based on PLS-DA plot, it seems that most of the
VOCs that contribute to Status 1 includes those of 5-(hydroxymethyl)-2-
furancarboxaldehyde, 2-propylthiophene and 4H-pyran-4-one. None of the
VOCs seemed to have any influence on Status 2. The accuracy of the model
was 61.2%.
Keywords: Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant
Analysis (PLS-DA), Ganoderma boninense (G.b), Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC).

ID042
Some Numerical Methods for Solving Geodesic Active

Contour Model on Image Segmentation Process
MAIZATUL NADIRAH MUSTAFFAa, NORMA ALIASb & FARIDAH
MUSTAPHAc
a,c
nadirah.mustaffa@yahoo.com, faridahmustapha@utm.my
b
Center for Sustainable Nanomaterials, Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific and
Industrial Research,
norma@ibnusina.utm.my
ABSTRACT
In this paper we present an edge-based image segmentation technique using
modified geodesic active contour model. Our main objective is to detect the
desired objects from an image. The stopping function of the proposed model
has been modified from the usual geodesic active contour model. This
stopping function is not only defined by the image gradient but it is also
depends on the image edge and color information of the desired objects. As
a result, our geodesic active contour model can detect the desired objects
without unwanted objects. The modified geodesic active contour model is
discretized using finite difference method based on the central difference
formula. Then, some numerical methods such as RBGS and Jacobi methods
are used for solving the linear system of equation. The accuracy and
effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been illustrated by applied to
different images and some numerical methods. The result shows that our
algorithm is very efficient for segmenting desired object of an image.
Keywords: image segmentation; color; geodesic active contour; numerical methods

ID043
Performance of Isogeometric Analysis on Plane Stress

Structure
CHUM ZHI XIANa, MOHD RIDZA BIN MOHD HANIFFAHb &
AHMAD RAZIN BIN ZAINAL ABIDINc
a,b,c
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor
Bahru, Malaysia
mridza@utm.my, arazin@utm.my
b,c
ABSTRACT
The main shortcoming of current technology and engineering process in
construction industry is when designers have to generate drawings using
computer aided design (CAD) and then translated by engineers into
analysis-suitable geometries, meshed and input to large-scale numerical
analysis codes. This reflects the existence of communication gap between
CAD and computer aided engineering (CAE). As such, many research have
been conducted to apply Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) instead of the current
Finite Element Method (FEM) in CAE. The aim of this study is to assess the
performance of IGA against FEM for plane stress structure. The main
difference between these two numerical techniques is the formation of shape
functions. Differential equations of simple rectangular plane stress problem
are first derived and discretized using both IGA and FEM. Emphasis is put
on the formulation of IGA which uses Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines
(NURBS) as the shape function as compared to FEM that adopts polynomial
interpolation function. Performance study on IGA is carried out by
comparing the convergence rate of the solution against FEM and its
accuracy with regards to h-refinement, p-refinement and k-refinement. From
the results of this study, the convergence of IGA is comparable to
conventional FEM and the error is small against exact solution. Although
the computational cost to solve problem in IGA is higher than FEM,
engineers could reduce time and possible error in translating CAD into
analysis-suitable geometries in CAE.
Keywords: Plane stress; Finite element method; NURBS; Isogeometric analysis

ID044
Simulation of Aqueous Humour Flows and Deformation of

DMD in a Three-Dimensional Anterior Chamber
ZUHAILA ISMAILa, LIM YEOU JIANNb, SABARUDDIN AHMAD
JAMALIc & ALISTAIR FITTd
a,b,c
zuhaila@utm.my, jiann8807@hotmail.com, sabaruddin94@gmail.com
d
Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University
Headington Campus,
Gipsy Lane, Oxford, OX3 OBP, United Kingdom
afitt@brookes.ac.uk
ABSTRACT
This paper presents the interaction between the aqueous humour (AH) flows
and the deformation of Descemet membrane detachment (DMD) in a 3D
anterior chamber (AC). Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) method is
used to model the problem. Finite element method using COMSOL
Multiphysics software is adopted to solve the governing equations for the
AH flows and the deformation of DMD. The fluid flow behaviour and the
deformation of the detached Descemet membrane are analysed in order to
comprehend the progression of the DMD in the AC due to the AH flows and
vice versa. The re-attachment or re-detachment of the DMD is significantly
affected by the AH flows. Advance treatment for the DMD can be
developed based on a better understanding of the interaction between the
AH flows and the DMD.
Keywords: aqueous humour; Descemet membrane detachment; arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian

ID045
Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions for an Example

of Markov Maps: Skewed Doubling Map
UMMU ’ATIQAH MOHD ROSLAN
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu
21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
ummuatiqah@umt.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Markov map can be used to study the long-term behavior of a discrete-time
process such as in finance, economics and population processes. Markov
map is one example of interval maps where it is a piecewise expanding map
and obeys the Markov property. One well-known example of Markov map
is the doubling map, a map which has two subintervals with equal partitions.
In this paper, we are interested to investigate another type of Markov map,
the so-called skewed doubling map. This map is a more generalized map
than the doubling map. Thus, the aims of this project are to find the fixed
points as well as the periodic points for the skewed doubling map and to
investigate the sensitive dependence on initial conditions of this map. The
method considered here is the cobweb diagram. Our numerical results
suggest that there exist dense of periodic orbits for this map. We also verify
the sensitivity of this map to initial conditions where small differences in
initial conditions give different effects of the behaviour of the orbits in the
map.
Keywords: Markov map; skewed doubling map; sensitive dependence on initial

conditions

ID046
Optimal Forwarding Probability in Vehicular Location

Prediction Handoff Algorithm
SHARIFAH H. S. ARIFFINa, ARFAH A. HASBOLLAHb & NURZAL E.
GHAZALIc
a, c
Department of Communication Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering,
shafizah@utm.my, nurzal@utm.my
b
Department of Electrical Engineering, Politeknik Ibrahim Sultan, 81700 Johor
Bahru, Malaysia
arfah@pis.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Global mobile data traffic is growing tremendously over the past few years
with the boost of smart electronic devices that are connected to the internet.
The demand for seamless internet connectivity had increase the need to
provide broadband mobile wireless communication even in a fast moving
vehicle. To overcome the growth of the connected wireless mobile devices
is the deployment of small cell in dense heterogeneity network. This paper
presents Vehicular Location Prediction (VLP) algorithm using Markov
Chain to predict user’s movement in a certain environment. The prediction
accuracy using VLP shows 30% improvement compared to Behaviour-
based Prediction (HBP) technique and 10% improvement from Location
Prediction using Kalman Filter (LPKF). However, the implementation of
VLP in A2A4 algorithm which is called VLP-HA (handoff algorithm),
resulting negative spikes in the throughput every time the mobile device
experience handoffs. To overcome this problem Optimal forwarding
probability is adopted in VLP-HA and proves to provide better throughput
compared to the existing method.
Keywords: handoff management; mobility prediction; Markov chain, optimal forwarding
probability

ID047
Mathematical Modeling for Control Released Fertilizer

RADZUAN BIN RAZALI & SYED AMEENUDDIN IRFAN
Department of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ,
Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, 32610 Tronoh, Perak, Malaysia
radzuan_razali@utp.edu.my, third@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Controlled release fertilizers (CRFs) are essential for sustainable agriculture
system. CRFs are designed to maintain the constant release rate of nutrients,
to increase the plant uptake of nutrients, which reduces the soil pollution
and decreases the crop expenditure. In the literature, many studies have been
done for considering the molecular diffusion as the only phenomenon for
nutrient release from CRFs. Most of the CRFs contain NPK as the nutrient.
The release of NPK depends on molecular diffusion which is expressed by
Fick’s second law of diffusion and ionic diffusion, due to the electrolytic
behavior of NPK in soil. Previous studies in the literature have employed
numerical methods such as two-level finite explicit, Crank-Nicholson
method to solve the ionic and molecular diffusion model to study the
nutrient release profiles. In this work, an analytical solution is presented
using modified Adomian decomposition method. The obtained solution
helped to find the effect of granule radius, nutrient release rate, pH of the
soil and temperature of the soil on the nutrient release profiles. The obtained
results are compared with the experimental, and it was found that simulation
results are in good agreement with experimental results. This in-depth
information of nutrient release helps in designing of improved CRFs to
achieve maximum plant nutrient uptake.
Keywords: mathematical modeling; control released fertilizer; Adomian decomposition

method

ID048
Numerical Simulation of non-Newtonian Blood Flow in a 3D

Stenosed Bifurcated Artery
NORMAZNI ABDULLAHa , AZIM AZAHARIb & ZUHAILA ISMAILc
a,b
normazniabdullah@gmail.com, zuhaila@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The present study investigates the behaviour of blood flow through a
stenosed bifurcated artery. The geometry of the bifurcated artery is in the
presence of a single mild stenosis in the parent artery. The flow dynamics is
defined according to the incompressible, steady Navier-Stokes equations for
non-Newtonian fluids. Numerical simulation is performed using COMSOL
Multiphysics that based on Finite Element Method (FEM). The numerical
simulation results show that the flow characteristics of blood such as the
axial velocity profile is significantly affected by the severity of stenosis.
Analysis of the streamlines patterns for stenosed bifurcated artery for
different severity of stenosis exhibit flow recirculation zone near the
stenotic wall upstream and daughter artery.
Keywords: Non-Newtonian; Stenosis; Bifurcated artery

ID049
Solar Radiation Forecasting using a Hybrid SARIMA and

ANN Method
MUHAMMAD ZILLULLAH MUKARAMa & FADHILAH YUSOFb
a,b
Zmmuhammad3@live.utm.my, fadhilahy@utm.my
b
Climate Change Research Group, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor
Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
fadhilahy@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Solar energy has an enormous potential for generating renewable electricity.
In the tropics solar energy are abundance all year long but suffer from
uncertainty caused by rain and clouds. Accurate prediction of solar radiation
can increase the effectiveness and productivity of solar energy sources.
Monthly average of solar radiation data are obtained from stations in Johor
Malaysia. The data are modelled using the Seasonal Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, artificial neural network
(ANN) model and Hybrid ANN and SARIMA model. The SARIMA model
is a reliable tool in forecasting seasonal data, on the other hand the ANN
model have been proven to be a good model in forecasting non-linear data.
By combining both models, a more accurate model can be obtained. Finally
the forecasting performance each model is compared by using mean
absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root
mean square error (RMSE). The result shows that the hybrid model is better
in forecasting solar radiation data.
Keywords: SARIMA; ANN; hybrid model; solar radiation; forecasting

ID050
Constructing Material and Social Deprivation Index in

Setiu Wetlands: Factor Analysis
SYERRINA ZAKARIA & NG QIN HWEI
School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics,
Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu
syerrina@umt.edu.my, uk36554@student.umt.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Deprivation index is usually used in public health study. At the same time,
deprivation index can also be used to measure the level of deprivation in an
area or a village. These indices are also referred as the index of inequalities
or disadvantage. There are many indices that have been built before.
However, it is believed to be less appropriate to use the existing indices to
be applied in other countries or areas which have different socio-economic
conditions and different geographical characteristics. The objective of this
study is to construct the material and social deprivation index based on the
socio-economic factors in Setiu Wetlands (Jajaran Merang, Jajaran Setiu
and Jajaran Kuala Besut) in Terengganu Malaysia which is defined as
weighted material and social deprivation index. This study has employed the
material and social variables from 64 villages in Setiu Wetlands with 1024
respondents. The factor analysis is used to extract the latent variables or
observed variables into smaller amount of components or factors. By using
factor analysis, several factors are extracted. Based on the result, the areas
with a lower index values until high index values were identified. According
to the computed deprivation index, government should take some actions or
establish some policies to develop the most deprive village and improve
their standard of living in order to improve the standard of living in Setiu
Wetlands.
Keywords: material deprivation; social deprivation; factor analysis

ID051
Two Stage Portfolio Selection and Optimization Model with

The Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization
KASHIF BIN ZAHEERa, MOHD ISMAIL BIN ABD AZIZb, AMBER
NEHAN KASHIFc & SYED MUHAMMAD MURSHID RAZAd
a,b,c
a,c,d
Federal Urdu University of Arts, Sciences & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
kbzaheer@gmail.com, mohdismail.abdaziz@gmail.com, ankashif@gmail.com,
smmurshid@fuuast.edu.pk
ABSTRACT
The selection criteria play an important role in the portfolio optimization
using any ratio model. In this paper, the authors have considered the mean
return as profit and variance of return as risk on the asset return as selection
criteria, as the first stage to optimize the selected portfolio. Furthermore, the
sharp ratio has been considered to be the optimization ratio model. In this
regard, the historical data taken from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has
been considered. A metaheuristic technique has been developed, with
financial tool box available in MATLAB and the Particle Swarm
Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Hence, called as the Hybrid Particle Swarm
Optimization (HPSO) or can also be called as Financial Tool Box Particle
Swarm Optimization (FTB-PSO). In this model, the budgets as constrained,
where as two different models i.e. with and without short sale, have been
considered. The obtained results have been compared with the existing
literature and the proposed technique is found to be optimum and better in
terms of profit.
Keywords: portfolio optimization; profit; risk; stock exchange; Hybrid Particle Swarm
Optimization (HPSO); Financial Tool Box Particle Swarm Optimization (FTB-PSO);
Sharp Ratio (SR)

ID052
Forecasting of Currency Inflow and Outflow in Bank

Indonesia Based on Quantile Regression Neural Network
Model
AGNES ONA BLITI PUKA, SUHARTONO & DEDY DWI PRASTYO
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Statistics Department, Surabaya 60111,
Indonesia
agnes_onchu@yahoo.com, suhartono@statistika.its.ac.id, dedy-
dp@statistika.its.ac.id
ABSTRACT
Some problems that are often found in time series forecasting are
nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity. Methods to analyze these problems
including neural network and quantiles regression. There is a lot of research
and development on both methods, but research on performance comparison
of the hybrid of both methods in solving the real case is still very limited.
Therefore, this study performs a comparison between hybrid Quantiles
Regression Neural Network (QRNN) method and ARIMAX method. Both
methods used in the case study of currency inflow and outflow data in Bank
Indonesia. The best method is determined by the smallest Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) and Median Absolute Error (MdAE) criterion. Based on the
case study, hybrid QRNN method resulted in the RMSE inflow of 236.159
and RMSE outflow of 350.569, while the MdAE inflow of 42.046 and
MdAE outflow was 52.252. ARIMAX method resulted in the RMSE inflow
of 152.283 and RMSE outflow of 128.796, while the MdAE inflow of
69.196 and MdAE outflow of 101.682. These results show that hybrid
QRNN method provides better forecasting performance than ARIMAX
method.
Keywords: time series regression; ARIMAX; neural network; QRNN

ID053
Queuing System Effectiveness at School Cooperative

AHMAD RIDHUAN HAMDAN & RUZANA ISHAK
Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
54100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
ridhuan@mrsmag.edu, ruzana.kl@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Queuing Theory is a branch of knowledge in operation research concerning
the analysis of queues when a customer arrives at a service centre and has to
queue in a line to get some service. The theory pays attention to how
organizations can serve a number of customers who demand service and a
queue of customers waiting to be served. Owners especially store owners
that have to attend to large numbers of customers at a time have attempted
to measure and manage queues to quicken the customer procession, increase
sales and profit, increase productivity and operation efficiency, increase
satisfaction levels and increase customer loyalty in using the service
provided. In line to the situation, this study is to determine the effectiveness
of the waiting line using Queuing Theory at school cooperative. To date,
there appears to be no research conducted about school cooperatives to
observe and solve the massive inflow of customers at lines at a given time
especially during recess. The purposes of this study are to determine the
customers’ congestion at the payment counter and to propose the
effectiveness of queuing system. Waiting and services times of student at
school cooperative is studied in 3 times period that we consider as peak
hours in two types of counter which are for boy’s and girl’s. From the data
collection, we observed it using queuing theory and M/M/1/∞/∞ queuing
model is implemented. The results show that for optimum service level, the
counter must be changed from one to two counter each side. The summary
and finding of the study shall be used as guideline for the management of
school cooperative in deciding improvement of its operation.
Keywords: queuing theory; queuing system; queue system performance parameter

ID054
MHD Effect on Unsteady Mixed Convection Boundary

Layer Flow Past a Circular Cylinder in Nanofluid with
Constant Wall Temperature
MOHAMAD ALIF ISMAILa, NURUL FARAHAIN MOHAMMADb &
SHARIDAN SHAFIEc
a,c
mohamadalif91@gmail.com, sharidan@utm.my
b
Department of Computational and Theoretical Sciences, Kulliyyah of Sciences
International Islamic University Malaysia, 25200 Kuantan, Malaysia
nurul.farahain.mohammad@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
The transient mixed convection boundary layer flow of nanofluid past a
circular cylinder with the effect of magnetohydrodynamic(MHD) is studied.
The mathematical model is developed and then reduced into dimensionless
equation using appropriate dimensionless variables. The dimensionless
equations are transformed using similarity transformation that is divided by
two section which is small and large time cases. Then, all equations are
linearized by using Newton method. The system of equation is solved
numerically by using Keller-box method. The solutions of velocity and
temperature profiles are presented graphically and shown in table with
various values of volume fraction parameter, mixed convection parameter,
separation times, magnetic parameter M, and Prandtl number. Three
different types of nanoparticles Al2O3, Cu, and TiO2, are used and water is
chosen as base fluid. The results show that volume fraction affected the
heat-transfer rate, and skin friction coefficient. This study also shows that
nanofluid affected the separation times which decelerated the flow.
Keywords: boundary layer; magnetohydrodynamic; flow separation, nanofluid

ID055
Aligned MHD Free Convection of Ferrofluids with

Convective Surface Boundary Condition over an Inclined
Plate
MOHD RIJAL ILIASa, NORAIHAN AFIQAH RAWIb & SHARIDAN
SHAFIEc
a,c
rijal_rs@hotmail.com , nafiqah38@gmail.com , sharidan@utm.my
a
Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
rijal_rs@hotmail.com
ABSTRACT
The aligned magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) free convection laminar
boundary layer flow with heat transfer of an electrically conducting Fe3O4-
water and Fe3O4-kerosene based ferrofluids over an inclined plate with
convective boundary condition is investigated numerically. The governing
partial differential equations are transformed into coupled nonlinear
ordinary differential equation by using suitable similarity transformations.
The transformed equations are then solved numerically using well known
explicit finite difference scheme known as the Keller Box method. A
detailed parametric study is performed for different values of physical
parameters and the effect of all these parameters over the flow field and
temperature are discussed by means of graphs. The numerical values of skin
friction coefficient and rate of heat transfer for various values of physical
parameters are also obtained and are tabulated. Comparison with previously
published results is presented and it is found to be in excellent agreement. It
is found that the temperature rises and the thermal boundary layer thickens
with an increase in the Biot number and nanoparticle volume fraction
parameters. It is also noticed that magnetic and Biot number parameters
influence fluid velocity and temperature significantly.
Keywords: inclined plate; MHD; free convection; nanofluid

ID056
Survival Analysis of Companies’ Delisting Time in

Indonesian Stock Exchange Using Bayesian Multiple-period
Logit Approach
TITIS MIRANTI, NUR IRIAWAN & DEDY DWI PRASTYOc
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Statistics Department, Surabaya 60111,
Indonesia
mirantititis@gmail.com, Nur_i@statistika.its.ac.id, dedy-dp@statistika.its.ac.id
ABSTRACT
Survival analysis can be used to calculate the probability of delisted
companies from Stock Exchange. The survival analysis with static
approach may produce inappropriate results, particularly when the
covariates changing with time. One of the discrete approaches of survival
analysis with time dependent covariates is multiple-period logit model
which is equivalent to hazard model. In this work the parameters of in the
multiple-period logit are regarded as random variables, therefor the
Bayesian comes into play. There are three prior distributions used, i.e.
improper uniform distribution, multivariate normal distribution, and
Cauchy distribution. Criterion used to evaluate the performance of the
proposed model is C-index applied on delisting time of companies in
Indonesian Stock Exchange. The covariates of the model are financial
ratios calculated from quarterly financial report of companies in
manufacturing sector from the first quarter of 1990 to third quarter of 2015.
The most appropriate prior is multivariate normal distribution that produces
highest c-index compare to other prior. Moreover, the proposed model is
applied on windowing data.
Keywords: Survival Analysis; Delisting; Multiple-period Logit; Bayesian Approach;

windowing

ID057
Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Rainfall Deficit Trend in

Alor Setar, Malaysia
AIMI ATHIRAH AHMADa,b, FADHILAH YUSOFb & MUHAMAD
RADZALI MISPANc
a
Economic and Social Sciences Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture Research
and Development Institute, 43400 Serdang Selangor
aimiathirah@mardi.gov.my
b
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,
Johor Bahru
fadhilahy@utm.my
c
Agrobiodiversity and Environment Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture
Research and Development Institute, 43400 Serdang Selangor
radzali@mardi.gov.my
ABSTRACT
Rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are the most important variables in
water balance study. A water balance can be used to help manage water
supply and demand for agriculture water management. Rainfall data were
obtained by Malaysian Meteorology Department while estimates of
potential evapotranspiration were calculated using Penman-Monteith
method. Trend analysis of monthly and annual precipitation, potential
evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit are essential to help irrigation system
in agriculture management. These variables trend in Alor Setar for 29 year
period (1980-2009) were analysed for annual and monthly periods. Annual
potential evapotranspiration exhibits decreasing trend of -0.0008mm per
year. However rainfall deficit show an increase by 0.0031 mm yr-1 while
there is no significant trend of annual rainfall. Result of this study was
aimed to give information and guidance of water management practice and
cropping system in that area.
Keywords: Rainfall; Potential Evapotranspiration; Rainfall Deficit

ID058
Modeling and Estimation on Long Memory Stochastic

Volatility for Index Prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
KHO CHIA CHENa, ARIFAH BAHARb,a, CHEE-MING TINGc &
HALIZA ABD RAHMANa
a
Malaysia, 81310 UTM, Johor Bahru.
cc_kho88@hotmail.com
b
UTM Centre for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), UTM
c
Center for Biomedical Engineering, UTM
ABSTRACT
The studies of long memory and volatility have become one of the typical
ways of measuring risk associated with persistence in financial data set.
However, the persistence in volatility cannot be captured easily because
some of the mathematical models are not able to detect these properties. To
overcome these drawbacks, this study developed a procedure to construct
long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model by using fractional
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process in financial time series to evaluate the
degree of the persistence property of the data. The procedure of constructing
LMSV model and the estimation methods are applied to the real daily index
prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI over a period of 20 years. The least
square estimator (LSE) and quadratic generalised variations (QGV) method
are used to estimate the drift and diffusion coefficient of the volatility
process respectively. The long memory parameter is estimated by the
detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The findings showed that the
volatility of the index prices exhibit long memory process but the returns of
the index prices do not show strong persistence properties. The root mean
square errors (RMSE) obtained from various methods indicates that the
performances of the model and estimators in describing returns of the index
prices are good.
Keywords: Long memory stochastic volatility; fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck; LSE;
QGV; DFA

ID059
Comparative Performance of Support Vector Regressions

for Accurate Streamflow Predictions
NORAINI IBRAHIMa & NORHAIZA AHMADb
a
norainiibrahim89@gmail.com
b
norhaiza@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Obtaining accurate streamflow predictions can be challenging due to the
inherent variabilities and complex nonlinear nature in streamflow generation
processes. Support vector regression model is an effective forecasting tool
to forecast streamflow as it is able to capture the nonlinearity in the data and
attain the global optimum parameters in the forecasted model. However, the
efficiency of SVR might be hindered by noise that typically exist in any
hydrological time series data through random influences and inaccuracies in
recording. Thus, this condition could compromise the quality of input data
into SVR. The performance of the SVR model depends on the model
parameters and the choice of the kernel function. The parameter of each
kernel function need to be tuned to obtain the optimal parameter since it can
influence the behavior of SV. In this study, we investigated the
effectiveness of forecasting daily streamflow data using different settings of
SVR in two ways. First, we used different variations of wavelet denoising
technique using soft-threshold with different selections of wavelet
decomposition levels and mother wavelets in order to preserve information
and reduce distortion of the original time series. For this purpose, we
measured the impact of six different wavelet on SVR namely Daubechies of
type db5, db6, db7, db8, db9 and db10 with two different level of
decomposition which are level 10 and level 11.Then, the data are applied
using four different types of kernel functions in SVR specifically linear,
Gaussian, polynomial and radial basis function (RBF) by performing K-fold
cross-validation to obtain the optimal parameter for kernel function in
forecasting streamflow. We illustrated the methods using the daily
streamflow data observed at four stations in the state of Johor. The results
demonstrate that SVR based wavelet denoising for 1-day lead time
streamflow forecasting of type db6 give better results using linear kernel
function based on K-fold cross-validation compared to regular SVR. This
implies that reduced variance in the denoising procedure and obtain optimal
parameter in kernel function may improve forecasting accuracy.
Keywords: Support vector regression; kernel functions; wavelet denoising; mother wavelets;
wavelet decomposition levels

ID060
Describing the Orientation of a Conducting Spheroid based

on the First Order Polarization Tensor
TAUFIQ KHAIRI AHMAD KHAIRUDDINa, NURHAZIRAH
MOHAMAD YUNOSb & ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZc
a,b
taufiq@utm.my, nurhazirah12304@yahoo.com
a,c
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
zainalabdaziz@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Identifying the orientation of conducting objects can be very important or
less important in some industrial problems related to electric or
electromagnetic systems. One way to describe the orientation of a
conducting object is to use the object's parameter called as the polarization
tensor. Generally, the polarization tensor for each application is derived
based on the mathematical modelling of the appropriate systems of electric,
electromagnetic or both. In this study, we discuss how the first order
polarization tensor can be used to describe the orientation of a conducting
spheroid in an electrical system. First of all, if a spheroid is rotated, we
show that the first order polarization tensor of the spheroid before it is being
rotated could be different or the same with the first order polarization tensor
of the spheroid after it is being rotated. After that, we propose a method to
identify a spheroid, independent of its orientation, based on the property of
the first order polarization tensor.
Keywords: Conductivity; rotation matrix; determinant

ID061
Fast Computation of Disk and Annulus with Circular Slits

Map of Bounded Multiply Connected Regions with
Application to Biomedical Image Processing
ALI WAHAB KAREEM SANGAWIa, ALI HASSAN MOHAMED
MURIDb*, SOLAF A. HUSSAINc, KHIY WEI LEEd
a
Department of Computer, College of Basic Education, Charmo University, 46023
Chamchamal Sulaimani, Kurdistan, Iraq
ali.kareem@charmouniversity.org
b
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Ibnu Sina
Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia.
alihassan@utm.my
c
Department of Computer Science, School of Science, Faculty of Science and
Science Education, Universiti of Sulaimani, 46001 Sulaimani, Kurdistan, Iraq.
solaf.hussein@univsul.edu.iq
d
Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia.
leekhiywei@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
In this paper we present a fast boundary integral equation method for the
numerical conformal mapping and its inverse of bounded multiply
connected regions onto a disk and annulus with circular slits regions. The
method is based on two uniquely solvable boundary integral equations with
Neumann-type and generalized Neumann kernels. These boundary integral
equations are constructed from a boundary relationship satisfied by a
function analytic on a multiply connected region. The integral equations are
solved numerically using combination of Nyström method, GMRES
method, and fast multipole method (FMM). The complexity of this new
algorithm is O((m+1)n), where m+1 is the multiplicity of the multiply
connected region and n is the number of nodes on each boundary
component. Previous algorithms require O((m+1)^3n^3) operations. The
numerical results of some test regions illustrate that our method has the
ability to handle regions with complex geometry and very high connectivity.
An application of the method to medical image processing of human brain is
also presented.
Keywords: Numerical conformal mapping; boundary integral equations; generalized
Neumann kernel; medical image processing

ID063
Fractional Metapopulation of Measles Model

FARAH AINI BINTI ABDULLAH
School of Mathematical Sciences,
Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Gelugor, Penang, Malaysia
farahaini@usm.my
ABSTRACT
In this work, a fractional temporal SEIR measles model is considered. The
model consists of our coupled time fractional ordinary differential
equations. The time-fractional derivative is defined in the Caputo sense.
Firstly, we solve this model by solving an approximate model that de-
couples the four time fractional ordinary differential equations (TFODE) at
each time step. Secondly, we derive an analytical solution of the single
TFODE. Then, we can obtain analytical solutions of the four decoupled
TFODE at each time step, respectively. Thirdly, a computationally effective
fractional scheme is proposed for simulating the TFODE. It can be shown
that the fractional model provides an interesting technique to describe
measles spreading dynamics. We conclude that the analytical and Predictor-
Corrector schemes derived are easy to implement and can be extended to
other fractional models.
Keywords: measles model; fractional differential equations; Predictor-Corrector schemes

ID064
Convergence of Modified Homotopy Perturbation Method

for Fredholm-Volterra Integro-Differential Equation of
order m
Z. K. Eshkuvatova, F. S. Zulkarnainb
a
Faculty of Science and Technology,
Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM), Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
zainidin@usim.edu.my
b
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science,
Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), Selangor, Malaysia
fsamihah88@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Homotopy perturbation method (HPM) is introduced in 1999 and it is the
combination of two methods: the homotopy and perturbation method. In
recent years, the application of HPM in mathematical problems has been
applied by many researchers. This method deforms complicated problem
into a simple problem which is easy to solve. There are few modifications
on HPM, one of them is adding few unknown parameters to the first
iterations and find the unknown parameters by equating 2nd iteration to be
zero which leads to semi-analytical solutions. Another modification is to
divide the interval into subintervals and use HPM on each subinterval which
is named multistage homotopy-perturbation method. In 2016, convex HPM
and modified HPM have been used for the approximate solution of the
linear Fredholm-Volterra integro-differential equation and hyper-singular
integral equations respectively. In this paper, modified homotopy
perturbation method (MHPM) is applied to solve the general Fredholm-
Volterra integro-differential equations (FV-IDEs) of order m with initial
conditions. Selective functions and unknown parameters allowed us to
obtain two step iterations. It is found that MHPM is a semi-analytical
method for FV-IDEs and could avoid complex computations. Numerical
examples are given to show the efficiency and reliability of the method. The
proof of convergence of the proposed method is also given.
Keywords: integro-differential equations, homotopy perturbation method, convergence

ID068
Mathematical Modeling of Geophone Magnetic Ring for

Sensitivity Studies
MAWA PATRICK LUKAa, SER LEE LOHb & DENNIS LING CHUAN
CHINGc1
a,c
Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, 82610 Ipoh, Perak, Malaysia
dennis.ling@utp.edu.my, adgishluka@yahoo.co.uk
b
Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, 76100 Durian Tunggal, Melaka, Malaysia
slloh@utem.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Geophone (model SM-24) pertaining its performance to detect surface wave
at Free Wave Generator is analyzed. Sensitivity studies have been
conducted to model the physical disadvantage such as spring suspension and
magnetic field in geophone. From mathematical model of the ring
permanent magnet, applying “superposition” has suggested a solution: an
external resistor across its output terminal to amplify the exhibited linear
damping behavior. Geophone with 60%, and 75% damping ratio are
designed and built and the results show that 75% damping provide highest
sensitivity. Analytic expression of vertical component of magnetic field
shows that the damping ratio can be increased physically by increasing the
radius of the magnetic field, however, by modifying the SM-24 damping
ratio, similar outcome can be obtained.
Keywords: Geophone; Superposition; Sensitivity; Magnetic Field; Damping

ID071
Mathematical Modelling for Fish Feed Formulation of

Mystus Nemurus sp. Catfish: Optimizing Growth and
Nutrients Requirements
NUR AIDYA HANUM AIZAMa, RABIATUL ADAWIYAH IBRAHIMb,
RAPHAEL LEE KUOK LUNGc, PANG YEN LING & AIDILLA
MUBARAK
a,b,c,d
Pusat Pengajian Informatik dan Matematik Gunaan (PPIMG)
Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
aidya@umt.edu.my, rabiatuladawiyah_rai@yahoo.com.my,
raphaelkuoklung@yahoo.com, uk30639@student.umt.edu.my
e
Pusat Pengajian Sains dan Teknologi Makanan (PPSTM)
Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
aidilla@umt.edu.my
ABSTRACT
This study was carried out for the aim of integrating mathematical model in
the plan of producing a fish feed formulation by reducing the total cost
without discarding the nutrients requirements. As for the study, we focused
on producing the perfect combination of fish feed for Mystus nemurus sp.
Catfish in different stages of life. The mathematical model developed
considers their required nutrients in each stage, cost of each ingredient and
the amount of nutrients to be consumed (nutrient composition of fish feed
ingredients). We employed AIMMS mathematical software to assist with
the computation. Based on the result, we obtained a much better
combination of different ingredients compared to available commercial
pallets in terms of nutrient composition and production cost. The
combinations gave much cheaper cost yet boosts up the nutrient
consumptions directed as an eye-opener for independent fish farmers.
Thorough discussion in exploiting the results with future research directions
will also be included.
Keywords: Mathematical modelling; AIMMS mathematical software; Mystus nemurus sp.
Catfish; fish feed formulation

ID072
Free Vibration of Layered Cylindrical Shell Filled with

Fluid using Spline Approximation
NURUL IZYAN MAT DAUDa,b, K. K. VISWANATHANc & ZAINAL
ABDUL AZIZa,b
a
Scientiﬁc & Industrial Research, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru,
Johor, Malaysia
unizern@gmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my
b
unizern@gmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my
c
Kuwait College of Science and Technology,
Doha Area, 7th Ring Road, P. O. Box No. 27235, Safat 13133, Kuwait
visu20@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Free vibration of two layered cylindrical shell filled with fluid using spline
approximation method is presented. The fluid is assumed to be quiescent
and inviscid. By using Love’s first approximation theory, the equations of
motion for cylindrical shell are formulated in terms of longitudinal,
circumferential and transverse displacement components. A system of
coupled equations on three displacement functions is obtained on assuming
the displacement components in a separable form. Then, Bickley-type spline
is used to approximate the displacement functions, which along the
boundary conditions, resulting into a generalised eigenvalue problem. The
eigenvalue is solved to obtain the frequencies which associated with
eigenvectors of the spline coefficients from which the mode shapes are
constructed. Parametric studies with respect to relative layer thickness,
length-to-radius ratio and thickness-to-radius ratio are carried out to analyse
the frequency of shell filled with fluid under clamped-clamped (C-C)
boundary conditions.
Keywords: free vibration; cylindrical shell; Love’s first approximation theory; spline;
inviscid fluid

ID073
Estimating Risk Factors of Neonatal Death in A Malaysian

Public Neonatal Intensive Care Unit using A Survival
Analysis Approach
ZARINA MOHD KHALIDa, AISYAH ALIb, GHAZALI ISMAILb & CHIN
WAN YOKEc
a
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia
zarinamkhalid@utm.my
b
Clinical Research Centre, Hospital Sultan Ismail,
Jalan Persiaran Mutiara Emas Utama, Taman Mount Austin, 81100 Johor Bahru,
Malaysia
aisyah4@hsi.gov.my, ghazalijb59@yahoo.com
c
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Faculty of Computing and
Information Technology,
Tengku Abdul Rahman University College, 53300 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
chinwy@acd.tarc.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Identification of risk factors associated with neonatal death in a Malaysian
public hospital neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) is the main focus of this
study. To achieve this objective, a survival analysis approach was conducted
on neonatal data collected from Hospital Sultan Ismail Johor Bahru (HSIJB)
Malaysia. The sample data were obtained from HSIJB neonatal ICU
database consisted of 1656 patients admitted from 1 July 2013 until 30 June
2014. Univariate chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test, and multivariate Cox
regression analysis were used to identify the variables that were affecting
the chance of neonatal survivorship. After screening, 947 neonates admitted
to NICU right after birth were followed-up until death or discharged, out of
which 63 died before their 28th day of life in NICU. The study found that
the significant risk factors of neonatal death when analyzed individually
were caesarian delivery, preterm neonates, low birth weight (< 1500 g),
poor Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes, malformed, requiring mechanical
ventilator, presence of Infant Respiratory Distress Syndrome (IRDS), and
confirmed sepsis. However, through a multivariate Cox regression analysis,
the adjusted significant factors were left with low birth weight (< 1500 g),
poor Apgar scores at 5 minutes, malformed, and neonates requiring
mechanical ventilator.
Keywords: Fisher’s exact test; Cox regression analysis; neonatal mortality; neonatal intensive
care unit (NICU)

ID074
MILP Model for Integrated Line Balancing and Model

Sequencing Problems for Mixed-Model Two-Sided
Assembly Line
NUR INTAN LIYANA MOHD AZMIa, RASHIDAH AHMADb &
ZAITUL MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINc
a,b,c
nilma.fcu@gmail.com, rashidahahmad@utm.my
c
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM),
zmarlizawati@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Two-sided assembly lines are designed for producing high volume
intermixed product’s model. Large industries such as automotive industry
adapt this line to satisfy the market demand. This research explores the
Mixed-Model Two-Sided Assembly Line (MMTSAL). There are two
interrelated problems in MMTSAL which are line balancing and model
sequencing. In previous studies, many researchers considered these
problems separately and only few studied them simultaneously for one-
sided line. However in this study, these two problems are solved
simultaneously to obtain more efficient solution. The Mixed Integer Linear
Programming (MILP) model for one-sided line with the objective of
minimizing total utility work is modified. Total utility work is also known
as the amount of work that is not completed within the given length of
workstation. The characteristic of two-sided line as well as the task
restriction are added as constraints. Task restriction is also known as
preferred operations direction constraint where some task may be preferred
to be performed at one sided of the line, while others may be performed at
either side of the line. The tasks are classified into left-side tasks, right-side
tasks and either-side tasks. The problem is analysed using small-size to
large-size test cases using General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS)
with the solver CPLEX. Experimental results indicate that integrating the
problems of model sequencing and line balancing helps minimise the total
utility work. Also, it is found that the feasible solution for model sequence
with the assignment of task to assembly line is optimal.
Keywords: Mixed-model two-sided assembly line; Model sequencing; Line Balancing;

Simultaneous line balancing and mixed-model sequencing; Mixed integer linear
programming.

ID075
Integration of Economic Production Quantity with

Defective Items and Aggregate Planning for Multi-Product
in Multi-Period
GEETHAMPARI A/P SUBAMANIAMa, ZAITUL MARLIZAWATI
ZAINUDDINb & NUR ARINA BAZILAH AZIZc
a,b,c
geetha_3012@hotmail.com, zmarlizawati@utm.my
b,c
UTM-Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
ABSTRACT
Manufacturers often face material losses during production assemblies
which are usually unpredictable. However, the attrition percentage for a
given material can normally be obtained. In order to make sure that the
demand is met despite attrition, the production needs to be planned wisely.
Inefficient production planning can lead to the consumption of capital
resources. In this work, an inventory model that takes attrition into
consideration and no shortage is allowed is developed. An Economic
Production Quantity with Attrition (EPQA) is used to obtain the optimal
production run size and the optimal production cycle. Then, an aggregate
planning model for a year is developed taking the optimal production run
size obtained as the demand. From this model, the production quantity of
products, use of overtime labour, numbers of workers to be hired or fired
and the amount of inventory to be held in stock each month so that the
demand is met and the annual total cost of operations is kept to the
minimum are decided. This new production policy can thus scientifically
address the attrition problem, assist in decision making, help in resource
planning and optimize the production process.
Keywords: Economic Production Quantity with Attrition; Aggregate planning; Optimal
production

ID076
Optimization of UTM Bus Services

ZAITUL MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINa,, AKBAR
BANITELEBIDEHKORBIb, SYARIFAH ZYURINA NORDINc, NUR
ARINA BAZILAH AZIZd, FARHANA JOHARe
a,c,d,e
zmarlizawati@utm.my, szyurina@utm.my, nurarina@utm.my,
farhanajohar@utm.my
a,b
UTM-Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM)
zmarlizawati@utm.my, akbar.banitalebi@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The problem of optimizing the bus services in UTM is considered.
Assuming the number of colleges and faculties are known, the distances
between them are available and further the number of students who need to
commute between these colleges and faculties are also known. Objectives of
the problem are to maximize the ridership, minimize the headway and the
operating cost of the bus services. A linear model of this transit system is
introduced that is based upon flow conservation. The solution of the model
helps to optimize the quality of the bus transit service in UTM.
Keywords: Vehicle Routing; Optimization; Bus Services

ID077
A Model of Unsteady Blood Flow in Microcirculation for 4-

Node Networks
WAN RUKAIDA WAN ABDULLAH, NURUL FARHANA ZAINAL
ABIDIN & SHARIDAN SHAFIE
wrukaida@utm.my, hanna_abidin94@yahoo.com, sharidan@utm.my
ABSTRACT
This project addresses blood flow in the systemic microcirculation, which is
formed by networks of small capillaries having diameters comparable in
size to the blood cells passing through them. We solve sets of coupled
nonlinear partial differential equations to analyze the behaviour of blood
flow in microcirculation for four-node network with seven-tube. The model
incorporates empirical descriptions of blood rheology in capillaries,
particularly the Fahraeus effect, the Fahraeus-Lidqvist effect and the phase-
separation effect. The coupled advection-diffusion equations are solved
using finite-difference-based numerical methods and demonstrate the long-
lived transient response of the flow through the network to inlet
perturbations.
Keywords: Microcirculation; Hematocrite; Fahraeus-Lidqvist effect; Phase-separation

effect

ID078
Generic Skills Assessment on Critical Thinking and

Problem Solving Skills: Engineering vs Non-Engineering
UTM Students
ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZa, ROHANIN AHMADb, ZAITUL
MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINc, SHARIFFAH SUHAILA SYED
JAMALUDINd, ARIFAH BAHARe, ZARINA MOHD KHALIDf,
NORAZLINA ISMAILg, CHIN WAN YOKEh & ASMA MUSTAFAi
a,b,c,d,e,f,g,i
zainalaz@utm.my, rohanin@utm.my, zmarlizawati@utm.my, suhailasj@utm.my,
arifah@utm.my, zarinamkhalid@utm.my, i-norazlina@utm.my,
khawlah@yahoo.com
h
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Sciences
and Computing
Tunku Abdul Rahman University College, 53300 Kuala Lumpur
chinwy@acd.tarc.edu.my
ABSTRACT
Critical thinking assessment is a worldwide test used to evaluate
thoughtfulness of a person when doing a decision. This study conducted
critical thinking and problem-solving (CTPS) to evaluate the ability of
engineering and non-engineering Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
students in identifying, analyzing and solving the problem based on their
skill before and after taking four years of undergraduate studies in UTM.
First semester and final semester students from the Cohort 2011/2012 from
all faculties were randomly selected to participate the CTPS assessment.
The questions were set according to the traits of critical thinking and the
marks were given using scoring rubrics. Rasch analysis was performed to
test the reliability and unidimensionality of the questionnaires. Mean or
median was used to analyze the scores of the students in terms of gender,
pre-U, race, faculty, and course discipline. Most of the students scored the
CTPS test in the final semester compared to the first semester. Students
from engineering school generally performed better than those are from
non-engineering school.
Keywords: Critical Thinking; Problem Solving; CTPS; Rasch Analysis

ID079
Application of Mathematical Sciences Research in

Hydrology Fields: A case study in Malaysia.
SHARIFFAH SUHAILA SYED JAMALUDINa , NUR ARINA BAZILAH
AZIZb, ARIFAH BAHARc, MUHAMMAD FAUZEE HAMDANd &
FADHILAH YUSOFe
a,b,c,d,e
UniversitiTeknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
suhailasj@utm.my, arina@utm.my,
arifah@utm.my, mfauzee@utm.my, fadhilahy@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The mathematical sciences play a vital part in all aspects of modern society.
Without research and having a good training in mathematics, there would be
no engineers, economics or computer analyst; no smart phones, ATM
machine or alarm system. Mathematical sciences refer to the high-end
research in mathematics, statistics and operations research carried out by
academic institutions, research centres, businesses, individuals and
government, which all add to the store of accumulated mathematical
knowledge. Nowadays, the number of researches in mathematical sciences
has been drastically increased especially in Research University. Hydrology
is a field that insists on using mathematical sciences theory in their
application such as in predicting how water will behave under different
circumstances; water supplies for residents, controlling river flooding, flood
risk assessment and flood/drought warning. An overall aim of hydrologists
is to apply scientific knowledge and mathematical principles to mitigate
water-related problems in society and environmental protection. Thus, this
research takes the initiative to undertake a study that assesses the
significance of mathematical sciences research in hydrological field. Results
indicate that many mathematical sciences research specifically statistical
methods have been applied in hydrological application in Malaysia. Most of
the researches gave beneficial impacts to the hydrological developments.
Keywords: Mathematical Sciences; Hydrological Application; Rainfall; Streamflow; Drought

ID080
Chicken Product Production Optimizer

ZAITUL MARLIZAWATI ZAINUDDINa,, NUR ARINA BAZILAH
AZIZb, SYARIFAH ZYURINA NORDINc, FARHANA JOHARd &
RASHIDAH AHMADe
a,c,d,e
zmarlizawati@utm.my, syzurina@utm.my, farhanajohar@utm.my
a,b
UTM-Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM)
zmarlizawati@utm.my, nurarina@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Livestock industry in Malaysia is an important sector that may contribute to
the development of agriculture and economics in the country. In Johor, the
industry is likely to contribute and provide food for the people especially in
the State of Johor and generally in Malaysia. Nowadays, the farming
industry is getting aware of the halalan and toyyiban issues. This is in line
with Malaysia’s target to achieve global halal hub by 2020. To achieve
these aspirations, more entrepreneurs are encouraged to venture into halal
chains for large-scale broiler chicken industry. With the demand for the
halal chicken production is increasing, the chicken producers need to make
proper planning so that they can meet the users’ requirements. Through a
systematic production planning, they can reduce the operation costs
involved and will be able to offer a lower price for chicken products to the
consumers. The project is intended to assist the chicken entrepreneurs to
decide the combination of the poultry products that is profitable. Therefore
a system named Chicken Product Production Optimizer (CPPO) is
developed and it is hoped that it will help the entrepreneurs to decide the
best number of chicken product combination based on the consumers’
demand.
Keywords: Chicken Production; Optimization; Halal Product

ID081
Statistical Literacy for Small and Medium-sized Enterprise

(SME) in Malaysia
ARIFAH BAHARa, FADHILAH YUSOFb, HALIZA ABD RAHMANc,
NORHAIZA AHMADd, FARHANA JOHARe, KAMARIAH ISMAILf &
ZAINAL ABDUL AZIZg
a,b,c,d,e
arifah@utm.my, fadhilahy@utm.my, halizarahman@utm.my, norhaiza@utm.my,
farhanajohar@utm.my,
f
UTM Technology Entrepreneurship Centre (UTMTEC)
m-maria@utm.my
a,b,g
UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
zainalaz@utm.my
ABSTRACT
The present deluge of data and information in the world makes numbers the
basis of a new language. We can say that Statistical Literacy became a key
competence of nowadays modern societies. Statistical Literacy is so
important for personal and social inclusion and active citizenship as it was,
in the past, knowing to write or read. The importance of Statistical Literacy
in Industrial Revolution 4.0 (Data Science). The challenges faced in
Industrial Revolution 4.0 are the real impact of all our efforts towards the
improvement of Statistical Literacy, regularly measuring in different
countries and with a standard and comparable way, our target, mainly
students, frequent users of statistical data, e.g. Journalist, and public at large.
Besides, the actual contribution of Statistical Literacy for the social and
economic wellbeing of our societies, correlating (or using causal analysis)
this of Index with all other social, economic, cultural, or even political,
variables. The objectives are to assess or survey the level Statistical Literacy
among SME employees and to construct questioners for measuring
Statistical Literacy among SME employees. The sample size of 10% from
1000 companies registered with SME Corporation. The construct of the
questioners are divided into four categories attitudes and use, understanding,
evaluation and ability to form an opinion.
Keywords: Statistical literacy; Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME); Statistical analysis

ID082
Comparison between VAR, GSTAR, FFNN-VAR and

FFNN-GSTAR Models for Forecasting Oil Production
SUHARTONOa, DEDY DWI PRASTYOb, HERI KUSWANTOc &
MUHAMMAD HISYAM LEEd
a,b,c
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Science,
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia
suhartono@ statistika.its.ac.id, dedy-dp@statistika.its.ac.id,
heri_k@statistika.its.ac.id
d
mhl@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Monthly data about oil production at several drilling wells is an example of
spatio-temporal data. The aim of this research is to compare the forecast
accuracy between several spatio-temporal models, i.e. Vector
Autoregressive (VAR), Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR),
Feedforward Neural Network-VAR (FFNN-VAR), and FFNN-GSTAR
models. These spatio-temporal models are proposed and applied for
forecasting monthly oil production data at three drilling wells in East Java,
Indonesia. There are 60 observations that be divided to two parts, i.e. the
first 50 observations for training data and the last 10 observations for testing
data. The results show that FFNN-GSTAR(11) and FFNN-VAR(1) as
nolinear spatio-temporal models tend to give more accurate forecast than
VAR(1) and GSTAR(11) as linear spatio-temporal models. Moreover,
further research about nonlinear spatio-temporal models based on neural
networks and GSTAR is needed for developing new hybrid models that
could improve the forecast accuracy.
Keywords: Spatio-temporal; Forecasting; VAR; GSTAR; FFNN-VAR; FFNN-GSTAR;
Oil Production.

ID083
Subsea Cable Laying Problem

AHMAD RAZIN ZAINAL ABIDINa, SHAYMAA MUSTAFAb &
ZAINAL ABD AZIZc
a
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru,
Malaysia
arazin@utm.my
b,c
Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
shaymaamustafa59@gmail.com, zainalaz@utm.my
a,c
UTM-Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM),
ABSTRACT
Subsea cable laying process is a difficult task for an engineer due to many
uncertain situations occurs during the operation. It is very often that the
cable being laid out is not perfectly fit on the route being planned, which
results in the formation of slack. In order to control wastages during
installation, the slack needs to be minimized and the movement of a
ship/vessel needs to be synchronized with the cable being paid out. In this
paper, the presented problem was addressed using a mathematical model
considering a number of defining parameters such as the external forces, the
cable properties and geometry, etc. Due to the complexity, the model was
first developed for a steady-state problem assuming velocity of the vessel is
constant, seabed is flat and the effect of wind and wave is insignificant.
Non-dimensional system is used to scale the engineering parameters and
group them into only two main parameters which are the hydrodynamic
drag of the fluid and the bending stiffness of the cable. There are two
solutions provided in the report; (1) Numerical solution and (2) Asymptotic
solution. The result of these solutions suggests that the percentage of slack
can be reduced by the increase of the prescribed cable tension, and also the
increase in either the drag coefficient of the sea water or the bending
stiffness of the cable, similarly will result in lower slack percentage.
Recommendation on a further research of a time-dependent problem is
made at the end of this report in order to allow for wave motion and variable
sea surface.
Keywords: Subsea Cable Laying; Minimization of Slack; Steady-state Problem;
Mathematical Modeling

ID084
Spatial Grouping of Homogeneous River Flow Process in

Johor
NUR SYAZWIN MANSORa, NORHAIZA AHMADa AND ARIEN
HERYANSYAHb
a
Department of Mathematical Sciences,
Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
81310 Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia.
b
Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pasific
(CCROM SEAP)
Gedung Fisik dan Botani, Lantai 2 Kampus IPB Baranangsiang,
Jalan Pajajaran Bogor, 16143 Jawa Barat Indonesia.
e-mail: 1nsyazwin3@live.utm.my, 1norhaiza@utm.my, 2arengga@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
This study identifies the spatial grouping of homogeneous river flow
process on eight rivers in Johor sequences from 1980 to 2008. Here we use
a clustering approach to detect the similarities between eight rivers in Johor.
We use a nonlinear dissimilarity measures of Dynamic Time Warping
(DTW) to identify the similarities. The clustering results validated by C-
index shows two distinct clusters. Cluster 1 consist of Sungai Lenggor,
Sungai Johor, and Sungai Kahang. Cluster 2 consist of Sungai Sayong,
Sungai Lenik, Sungai Segamat, Sungai Bekok, and Sungai Muar. The two-
cluster solutions are stable and interpretable with reference to spatial
variations. These clusters can be distinct by their geographical location in
the peninsular.
Keywords: Spatial grouping; Clustering; Dissimilarity measure

ID085
Detecting Gas Leaks in a Pipeline Using Reduced Order

Modelling
NORAZLINA SUBANIa & NORSARAHAIDA AMINb
a,b
norazlina.subani@yahoo.com, norsarahaida@utm.my
ABSTRACT
This work focuses on the development of a mathematical model as a viable
alternative to pinpoint locations of gas leaks in a pipeline. The transient
non-isothermal flow of hydrogen-natural gas mixture in a pipeline is
considered because hydrogen is often transported in the same pipeline as
natural gas to reduce the transportation cost. The mathematical models need
to be further improved to include the effect of mass ratio of gas mixture.
The gas mixture was assumed to be homogeneous and the transient pressure
wave was created by the sudden or instantaneous closure of a downstream
shut-off valve to ensure the attainment of minimum pressure at the
downstream end within a short time. The boundary conditions imposed
were under the assumption that a reservoir exists at the upstream and a
sudden closure valve was at the downstream. The governing equations were
numerically solved using the reduced order modelling (ROM) technique,
which had not been previously applied on non-isothermal models involving
gas mixtures. Numerical results observed that the mass ratio of hydrogen to
natural gas should not be more than 0.5 to ensure that leakage does not
occur before the estimated leak position. An increase in the mass ratio φ
leads to an increase in the pressure and celerity wave, while the leak
location and amount of leak discharge decrease.
Keywords: Leak Detection; Gas Mixture; Hydrogen; Natural Gas; Reduced Order
Modeling

ID086
Performance Evaluation of a New Hybrid Multivariate

Meteorological Model Analysis: A Simulation Study
SITI MARIAM NORRULASHIKINa, FADHILAH YUSOFb & IBRAHIM
LAWAL KANEc
a,b
mariam.norrulashikin@gmail.com , fadhilahy@utm.my
c
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science
Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, 2218 Katsina State, Nigeria
ibrahimlk131@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Simulation used to measure the robustness and efficiency of forecasting
techniques performance over complex systems. A method for simulating
multivariate time series was presented in this study using vector
autoregressive process. By applying the methodology to the multivariable
meteorological time series, a simulation study was carried out to check for
the method performance. Three performance measure used and the results
reveals that the method works very well in practice.
Keywords: Simulation; Meteorology; Time Series Simulation

ID087
A Study on the Optimal Felling Rate in the Palm Oil

Plantation System
MOHD ISMAIL ABD AZIZa, NORYANTI NASIRb & AKBAR
BANITALEBIc
a,b
mismail@utm.my, noryanti4@live.utm.my
c
UTM Center for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,
akbar.banitalebi@utm.my
ABSTRACT
Successful palm oil plantation should have high returns profit, clean and
environment-friendly. Since oil palm trees have a long life and it takes years
to be fully grown, controlling the felling rate of the palm oil trees is a
fundamental challenge. It needs to be addressed in order to maximize oil
production. However, a good arrangement of the felling palm oil trees may
still affect the amount of carbon absorption. The objective of this study is to
develop a model of the palm oil plantation system taking into account both
oil production and carbon absorption. The model facilitates providing the
optimal control of felling rate that results in maximizing both oil production
and carbon absorption. At this aim, the model is formulated considering
palm oil biomass, carbon absorption rate, oil palm production rate and the
average prices of carbon and oil palm. A set of real data is used to estimate
the parameters of the model and numerical simulation is conducted to
highlight the application of the proposed model.
Keywords: Carbon Absorption; Palm oil trees; System Equation

ID088
Modelling and Forecasting External Trade using

ARIMA and GARCH Model
TEO WEE CHIENa, NORAZLINA ISMAILb & ASMA’ MUSTAFAc
a,b,c
weechien621@hotmail.com, i-norazlina@utm.my, khawlah92@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
External trade is one of the factors that affect the economy of a country.
The government and policy-makers are responsible to make decision to
control and maintain the growth of external trade volume. Hence, an
accurate forecasting model is very important to help them make decision.
Thus, this study was conducted to model ARIMA, GARCH and hybrid
ARIMA-GARCH for monthly external trade data. In this study, monthly
external trade data of Malaysia is used from January 1971 to December
2017 collected from Department of Statistics Malaysia. EViews 9 Student
Version is used to analyze the data. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) is
used to measure the goodness of fit of ARIMA and hybrid models. GARCH
(1,1) is chosen as the model in this study because previous researchers show
it fit most of the data well. Forecasting accuracy of the three models are
evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The model
which gives the lowest value of MAPE is consider as the best model. From
the results, it can be concluded that GARCH model is better than ARIMA
model because it can handle volatility of time series data. Nevertheless, the
hybrid model gives the lowest forecasting error which suggest that it is the
most suitable model to forecast external trade of Malaysia.
Keywords: External Trade Forecast, ARIMA, GARCH, Hybrid ARIMA-GARCH

ID089
Transformation Pressurized Water Reactor (AP1000) to

Fuzzy Graph
AZMIRUL ASHAARIa, TAHIR AHMADb & WAN MUNIRAH WAN
MOHAMADc
a,c
mierul2000@gmail.com, wanmunirah@gmail.com
b
Centre for Sustainable Nanomaterials, Ibnu Sina Institute for Scientific and
Industrial Research,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM,Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
tahir@ibnusina.utm.my
ABSTRACT
Pressurized water reactor (PWR) type AP1000 is the third generation of a
nuclear power plant. The primary system of PWR using uranium dioxide to
generate heat energy via fission process. The process influences
temperature, pressure and pH value of water chemistry of the PWR. The
aim of this paper is to transform the primary system of PWR using fuzzy
autocatalytic set (FACS). In this work, the background of primary system of
PWR and the properties of the model are provided. The simulation result,
namely dynamic concentration of PW is verified against published data.
Keywords: Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR); Graphical model; Autocatalytic Set; Fuzzy
graph.

Acknowledgements
We wish to acknowledge our special gratitude to
The Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia
UTM Office of Deputy Vice-Chanchelor (Research &

Innovation)
UTM Corporate Affairs
Oxford Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

(OCIAM)
UTM Faculty of Science
Department of Mathematical Sciences
IBNU SINA INSTITUTE for Scientific and Industrial Research
Prof. Dato’ Dr. Mohd Ismail Abdul Aziz

Former UTM Deputy Vice Chancellor (Student Affairs & Alumni)
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rohanin Ahamd

Former Head of Department, Department of Mathematical
Sciences, Faculty of Science, UTM
and all individuals who have directly and indirectly contributed

to the success of this event.

Map

List of Participants
No. Participants
Aaishah Radziah Binti Jamaludin, Ms.
1. aaishahradziah@gmail.com
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Agnes Ona Bliti Puka, Ms.
2. agnes_onchu@yahoo.com
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
Ahmad Fadly Nurullah Rasedee, Dr.
3. fadlynurullah@usim.edu.my
Islamic Science University of Malaysia
Ahmad Razin Zainal Abidin, Dr.
4. arazin@utm.my
Ahmad Ridhuan Hamdan, Mr.
ridhuan@mrsmag.edu.my
5.
Razak School of Engineering and Advanced Technology
Aimi Athirah Ahmad, Ms.
6. aimiathirah@mardi.gov.my
Akbar Banitalebi, Dr.
7.
akbar.banitalebi@utm.my
Ali Hassan Mohamed Murid, AP Dr.
8. alihassan@utm.my
Amber Nehan Kashif, Ms.
9. ankashif@gmail.com
Amir Hamzah, Mr.
10. asahamzah@gmail.com
Annie Gorgey, Dr.
11. annie_gorgey@fsmt.upsi.edu.my
Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
Arifah Bahar, Dr.
12. arifah@utm.my

Asma’ Mustafa, Ms.

13. khawlah92@yahoo.com
14. Azmirul Ashaari, Mr.
merul2000@gmail.com
Dennis Ling Chuan Ching, Dr.
15. dennis.ling@utp.edu.my
Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Fadhilah Yusof, AP Dr.
16. fadhilahy@utm.my
Farah Aini Abdullah, AP Dr.
17. farahaini@usm.my
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Fatin Amrina A. Rashid, Ms.
18. famrina2@live.utm.my
Fawzia Mansour Elniel, Ms.
19. fawziae@hotmail.com
Floridah Jelon, Ms.
20. jfloridah2@live.utm.my
Fong Wan Heng, Dr.
21. fwh@utm.my
Hamizah M Safuan, Dr.
22. hamizahs@uthm.edu.my
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
Izzat Fakhruddin Kamaruzaman, Mr.
23. izzat.kamaruzaman@mmu.edu.my
Multimedia University
Kashif Bin Zaheer, Mr.
24. kbzaheer@gmail.com
Kho Chia Chen, Ms.
25. cc_kho88@hotmail.com
Khuneswari Gopal Pillay, Dr.
26. khuneswari@uthm.edu.my
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia

Maizatul Nadirah Mustaffa, Ms.

27. nadirah.mustaffa@yahoo.com
Mohamad Alif Bin Ismail, Mr.
28. mohamadalif91@gmail.com
Mohd Ridza Bin Mohd Haniffah, Dr.
29. mridza@utm.my
Mohd Bakri Adam, AP Dr.
30. pmbakri@gmail.com
Universiti Putra Malaysia
Mohd Rijal Ilias, Mr.
31. rijal_rs@hotmail.com
Mohd Tahir Ismail, AP Dr.
32. m.tahir@usm.my
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Muhamad Safiih Lola, AP Dr.
33. safiihmd@umt.edu.my
Universiti Malaysia Terengganu
Muhammad Zillullah Mukaram, Mr.
34. Zmmuhammad3@live.utm.my / azil.utmskudai@gmail.com
Nor Hafizah Moslim, Ms.
35. moslimnorhafizah@gmail.com
Universiti Malaysia Pahang
Noraini Ibrahim, Ms.
36. norainiibrahim89@gmail.com
Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Dr.
37. tqah@ukm.edu.my
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Norazlina Ismail, Dr.
38. i-norazlina@utm.my
Norazlina Subani, Ms.
39. norazlina.subani@yahoo.com
Norhaiza Ahmad, Dr.
40. norhaiza@utm.my

Norliza Mohd Zain, Ms.

41. liza291292@gmail.com
Normazni Abdullah, Ms.
42. normazniabdullah@gmail.com
Norshela Mohd Noh, Ms.
43. shelanoh@gmail.com
Noryanti Nasir, Ms.
44. noryanti4@live.utm.my
Nur Aidya Hanum Aizam, Dr.
aidya@umt.edu.my
45.
Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz, Dr.
46. nurarina@utm.my
Nur Fadhilah Ibrahim, Dr.
47. nurfadhilahibrahim@yahoo.com
Nur Intan Liyana Mohd Azmi, Ms.
48. nilma.fcu@gmail.com
Nur Syazwin Mansor, Ms.
49. syazwin.mansor@gmail.com
Nurkhairany Amyra Mokhtar, Ms.
50. khairany.amyra@gmail.com
National Defence University of Malaysia
Nurliyana Juhan, Ms.
51. liyana.juhan@gmail.com
Nurlyana Omar, Ms.
52. nurlyana3@live.utm.my
Nurul Izyan Mat Daud, Ms.
53. unizern@gmail.com
Padmaa Venkatasona, Ms.
54. padmaavenkatason@yahoo.com
University of Malaya Medical Centre

Rahimah Mahat, Ms.

55. rahimahm@unikl.edu.my
Rahmah Binti Mohd Lokoman, Ms.
56. rahmah.mohdlokoman@gmail.com
Sayed Ameenuddin Irfan, Mr.
57. radzuan_razali@utp.edu.my / slirfan7@gmail.com
Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Sharifah Hafizah Syed Ariffin, AP Dr.
58. shafizah@utm.my
Shariffah Suahila Syed Jamaludin, Dr.
59. suhailasj@utm.my
Siti Mariam Norrulashikin, Ms.
60. mariam.norrulashikin@gmail.com
Siti Rohani Mohd Nor, Ms.
61. srohani.mn@utm.my / srohani.mn@gmail.com
Suhartono, Dr.
62. suhartono@statistika.its.ac.id
Syarifah Zyurina Nordin, Dr.
63. szyurina@utm.my
Syerrina Zakaria, Dr.
64. syerrina@umt.edu.my
Taufiq Khairi Ahmad Khairuddin, Dr.
65. taufiq@utm.my
Titis Miranti, Ms.
66. mirantititis@gmail.com
Ummu ’Atiqah Mohd Roslan, Dr.
67. ummuatiqah@umt.edu.my
Wan Rukaida Wan Abdullah, Ms.
68. wrukaida@utm.my

Yahaya Shagaiya Daniel, Mr.

69. shagaiya12@gmail.com,
Yeak Su Hoe, Dr.
70. s.h.yeak@utm.my
Zainal Abdul Aziz, Prof. Dr.
71. zainalaz@utm.my
Zainidin K. Eshkuvatov, AP Dr.
72. zainidin@usim.edu.my
Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia
Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin, Dr.
73. zmarlizawati@utm.my
Zarina Mohd Khalid, Dr.
74. zarinamkhalid@utm.my
Zuhaila Ismail, Dr.
75. zuhaila@utm.my

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PROGRAMME

AUGUST 1-2, 2017

Pulai Springs Resort,

Parallel Presentation Schedule 11

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Malaysian Mathematics in Industry Workshop 2017 23

List of Participants 104

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

It gives me great pleasure to be here for the

Prof. Datuk Ir. Dr. Wahid Omar

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 1

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

Alhamdulillah, praise be to Allah Subhanahu

International Seminar on Mathematics in Industry

Prof. Dr. Zainal Abd. Aziz

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 2

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

Praise be to Almighty Allah (SWT), for

Thank you and May Allah bless us all!

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fadhilah Yusof

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 3

YBhg. Prof. Datuk Ir. Dr. Wahid Omar

Prof. Dr. Ahmad Fauzi Ismail

Prof. Dr. Zainal Abdul Aziz

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Fadhilah Yusof

Dr. Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz

Dr. Zuhaila Ismail

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 4

Technical & Scientific Committee

Secretariat Dr. Syarifah Zyurina Nordin

Web & Dr. Norhaiza Ahmad

Event Dr. Taufiq Khairi Ahmad Khairuddin

Scientific Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ali Hassan Mohamed Murid

MMIW 2017 Dr. Arifah Bahar

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 5

DATO’ MOHD. RAZALI HUSSAIN

Productivity Measurements and Mathematical Applications

Mathematics is a methodical application of matter. The subject

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 6

PROF. DR. MASATO WAKAYAMA

Executive Vice President,

Mathematics for Industry in Japan

For over 50 years, mathematical research in Japan has been

In this talk, I will present an overview of the historical

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 7

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 8

Programme Schedule August 1, 2017

Time Programme Venue

8.00 - 9.00 Registration Pavilion Foyer

9.00 - 9.45 Opening Ceremony Dewan Inderaputera

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 9

Programme Schedule August 2, 2017

Time Programme Venue

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 10

Parallel Presentation Schedule

Contributed Parallel Session I

12.15 ID021 (C) ID012 ID051 (C) ID004 (C)

15.00 - 16.00 Keynote Session II

Environment/ Manufacturing/ Environment/

16.00 ID068 ID046 ID064 ID063

ISMI 2017, Industrial Mathematics for Innovation and Commercialization 11

Parallel Presentation Schedule

Time Programme (Wednesday - August 2, 2017)