TOPIC 3: METHODOLOGIES/APPROACHES TO EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

Five approaches to educational planning

The main approaches and techniques of relating educational planning to development planning,
which are in use or recommended by various authorities are set out below:

1. Social Demand Approach

This approach takes educational needs in terms of the current demand for education at the
different levels and projects them on the basis of population increase, age distribution, long-term
national or social goals (inarticulate or defined) and on the basis of what is known about state
and consumer preferences for education.
Among such goals and preferences are universal literacy, universal compulsory primary
education, and cultural objectives. The stress is upon education as social infra-structure for
development purposes, and as an end in itself. The financial implications of these targets are then
considered.
The usual result is that the funds required for the educational expansion are found to be larger
than those available either to launch or to sustain it, on the basis of projections of national
income and revenue. A compromise is struck, and what is deemed to be a feasible plan emerges,
cut down to the funds expected to be available.
This is the traditional approach, and may work satisfactorily in high-income countries, although
even in these, concern over flagging rates of growth and ever-increasing competition in export
markets is leading to increased emphasis on the contribution of education to technological
progress and productive efficiency.

2. Manpower Requirement/Planning Approach

This approach, is based on the fact that, the main link of education with economic development
is through the knowledge and skills it produces in the labor force. To the extent that the
educational system produces qualified people in the right numbers and places, the major part of
the economic and social contribution of educational planning is achieved, provided that in so
doing the educational system has not consumed so great a proportion of resources as to set back
the development plan itself.
Various methods exist of estimating future manpower requirements and the demand they will
make on the education system. Manpower forecasts can seldom be made with reliability beyond
short-term periods of five to eight years. The time perspective required by educational planning
as a whole is fifteen to twenty years, though it is possible to influence over shorter periods the

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supply in the ‘pipe-line’. Secondly, the educational component of different occupations changes
with technological progress and the rise of educational standards.
A further limitation on the manpower approach is that it leaves out of account provision for
education as a ‘consumers’ good’, and it makes no provision for the ‘social minimum’. It is
tempting to believe that these objectives might be obtained as by-products of the training for
occupation by influencing curricula, but this is unlikely.
The occupational needs of the economy are not the whole of society’s needs for education. An
addition has to be made for women and girls who are not gainfully employed, and for the amount
of education which a country requires to fulfill its cultural, political, and social goals. It is also
necessary to assure that educational output will grow faster than demand to the degree required
to stimulate growth, without creating problems of unemployment.
The educational plan must also provide for turnover of employment and continuous adjustment
between the educational system and the socio-economic environment. Full account must be
taken of the ‘wastage’ involved in various educational systems, as well as students switching in
mid-stream, students’ and parents’ preferences, locational disequilibrium of supply and demand,
and adjustments required by technological change.

Finally, there is the problem that the composition (or ‘product mix’) of the development plan
leading to the occupational demand must not be determined irrespective of the educational
requirements it imposes. The composition of the target ‘product mix’, and of the investment
program undertaken to achieve it, must depend in part on the relative cost of the various types of
educational programs needed. In short, investment in education and in all other sectors of the
development programs should be mutually determined. Professor Arthur Lewis, in his article
‘Education and Economic Development’’ dealing with what he calls ‘investment education’
states: ‘One can calculate the percentage of the age cohort who should receive secondary
education from the formula:
X = n (a+b+c)/m
Where:
x = proportion of age cohort to be recruited;
n = ratio of number of secondary-type jobs to adult population;
m = ratio of number in age cohort to adult population;
a = normal percentage wastage of nationals of the country;
b = abnormal wastage due to replacement of expatriates;
c = percentage of rate of growth of the number of secondary-type jobs.
‘Of these c is the most difficult factor to assess.’

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 If this formula is to be used to estimate total requirements, and to be used widely, we
have to add the secondary school places needed to maintain the flow to higher education, since
this flow has to pass through the secondary level. We have also to make provision for education
of women and girls and others who do not work. A further comment on Professor Lewis’
formula is that it does not take account of the fact that as national income rises the proportion of
the labor force to the total population normally becomes less. This is caused by the raising of the
age of entry into the labor force, by the lowering of the age of retirement, and by the reduction of
the number of workers marginal to the labor force (e.g. married women). Thus quantitative
estimates of educational requirements based solely on labor force demand ten to fifteen years
ahead would underestimate a country’s over-all educational needs.

3. Education-Output Ratio Method

The method is based on the capital-output ratio approach and might be called the education-
output ratio method. It relates the stock of educated people and the flow of children and students
completing education at the different levels directly to the national output of goods and services
without passing through the intervening stage of making manpower forecasts.
A series of linear equations are set up relating the stock of persons who have completed a given
level of education, and the number of students at each level, to the aggregate volume of
production. These equations will show how the structure of the educational system should
change with different growth rates of the economy.
A further difficulty common to both the manpower and the education output ratio approaches is
the assumption that a given output requires a fixed volume of manpower with fixed amounts of
education and training. The fact is, however, that certain latitude exists for substitution of capital
for manpower in general, and for substituting additional education and training for man-hours. A
given output may be produced with a small number of highly trained workers or a large number
of less trained workers. It may even be possible, through automation, to produce it with a smaller
number of less highly trained workers. In short, just as the choice of technology, and its
implications for education, is an important aspect of development programming, so is the choice
between more education and training and less employment, or less education and training and
more employment in each sector.
The broader the categories of output, and the broader the definition of educational inputs, the less
fixed are the relations between them and the wider the area of choice. In many developing
countries the shortage of data, of mathematical statisticians, and of computing facilities, would
not permit computation and projection of relationships among large numbers of output categories
and large numbers of education projects. In such cases, the choice of parameters to be used for
projection-a choice which is a policy decision and not a matter of statistical analysis alone-is
more important than the projection as such. The model provided by Professor Tinbergen,
however, breaks new ground in setting out a comprehensive system of variables and

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relationships which provide a conceptual basis for a quantitative estimation for the planning of
the educational system.

4. Rate of Returns Approach

According to this approach, investment in education should take place in such a way that the
returns from the investment are equal to the returns from other kinds of investment of capital,
e.g., investment in industry. This principle is known as ‘equi-marginal returns’ in economic
theory and could be extended to educational sector.
This approach treats education as an investment in human capital and uses rate of returns as a
criterion in allocation of financial resources. The approach implies that if the rate of return is
low, expenditure on education should be curtailed. However, in reality, it is difficult to apply this
approach to education due to problems associated with measuring rate of returns in education.
An educated person’s earnings or rate of returns depend upon his/her innate intelligence, parental
socio-economic status, motivation and aspirations. Hence, it is not easy to attribute the rate of
returns only to education acquired. Hence, this approach is least frequently applied to education.

5. Aggregate Method
This approach tries to relate educational needs to the whole demand of society for education
rather than to the level of output or to manpower, and is based on norms and patterns which
emerge from an empirical study of the educational situation in countries at different stages of
development. Among them are (a) the proportion of (Gross National Product) GNP devoted to
education globally and (if possible) by sector; (b) the proportion of public expenditure devoted to
education and its different sectors; (c) the proportion of over-all investment devoted to
education; (d) the proportion of the population enrolled at the different educational levels; (e) the
above information corrected by estimates of wastage; (f) the proportions of the school-age and
student population enrolled at different levels.

Patterns of educational development in relation to over-all development can be seen by setting

these coefficients against indices of economic growth and social attainment. Social indices can
be used with the help of ranking techniques. Use can also be made of data on what appear to be
irreversible trends, e.g. the movement from primary to secondary and tertiary occupations, and
estimates of the relative rates of growth of more highly qualified manpower in relation to the
total growth of the labor force. A number of problems arise in respect of the interpretation of the
coefficients listed. For example, the proportion of GNP spent on education will vary with the age
composition of the population and not reflect an equality of effort. Another variant strongly
influencing the comparison is the ratio of per capita teachers’ salaries to per capita income, as the
country differences are wide and the greatest proportion of educational cost is made-up of

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teachers’ remuneration. A full study of this approach is contained in Professor Harbison’s
chapter in this volume.

6. Comprehensive Approach
The human resources assessment approach which is a comprehensive one starts from the position
that education is one of the main sources of human resource formation, other sources being
measures in the fields of manpower, employment, training and health. The strategy of human
resource development consists of integrating these factors with general economic and social
development planning. It takes into consideration such factors as the scale of development
feasible considering the availability of specialized manpower, the scale of development needed
to absorb the backlog of unemployed and the new entrants to the labor force, the extent of in-
service training in industry, the pattern of investment priorities envisaged in the plan and the
broad economic, social and educational goals of development planning.

REFERENCES
1. Arthur Lewis, ‘Education and Economic Development’, UNESCO lECA Conference of
African States on the Development of Education in Africa, Addis Ababa. 15-25, May 1961. Final
Report, Paris, 1961, pp. 71-9.
2. Svimez, Trained Manpower Requirements for the Economic Development of Italy. Targets for
1975, G. Martinoli, chairman of Committee of Experts, Rome, Giuffre, 1960, 91 pp.
3. Harbison, F.; Ibrahim ~Delkader, I. High-level manpower for Nigeria’s future. Ashby
Report. Investment in education. Lagos, 1960.

Stages/ levels of educational planning.

There are five main stages of educational planning:
(1) Collection and Analysis of Statistical Information:
At this stage, relevant information about the system of education and concerned socio-economic
factors is collected so as to provide the quantitative basis for projections aimed at the future
development of the educational system.
Along with this, assessment in some allied fields is also necessary as education is an integral part
of the total plan and is closely inter-related with the economic development of the country.
(2) Evolving Policy Proposals:

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The statistical information collected helps in identifying the gaps, weaknesses and shortcoming
and provides the planners with a clear idea of the existing conditions. This helps the planners in
formulating policy proposals aimed at accomplishing pre-determined objectives.
The formulation of the policy proposal requires an over-all view of the role of education vis-a-
vis the economic development and the over-all planning. It should also take into account the
complexities of a large country like India, the diversities of cultures within it as well as the
regional aspirations.
These necessitate the introduction of a uniform educational system (e.g., 10+2+3 system) along
with scope for regional diversities in the curricula. It should also aim at evolving policy decisions
concerning rational norms of optimum class-size in terms of enrollment and student-teacher
ratios at different levels and types of education.
Besides, policies concerning admission criteria (except the compulsory primary education level),
promotion of students, fees to be paid on the basis of the principle of social justice, supply of
text-books, equipment, devising curricula, methods of teaching, teachers’ qualifications and in-
service professional development, methods of evaluation, medium of instruction, language
policy and teachers’ salaries must be taken into account.
(3) Projections, Programming and Project Analysis:
An effective plan necessitates projections of all the inputs of the educational system – students,
teachers, administrators, school buildings and classrooms, equipment and financial requirements.
Projections have to be made of the future nature and size of the demographic composition of
population for a period of fifteen to twenty years. Since student is the focus of the educational
process, projection should begin with the school and the college age-groups drawn on a yearly
basis in terms of enrolments.
There are two commonly employed procedures available for scientific projections:
(i)The enrolment ratio method which is based on the projection of past and present ratios of
school enrolment or school attendance into the future. It requires estimates of population by age
and sex regarding school enrolment and/or attendance data.
(ii)The grade cohort method which is also known as cohort survival method. This method also
makes use of the past and current enrolment data by grade for every school level and for
approximately seven-year and ten-year data for primary and secondary levels respectively.
It also requires data on the number of new students, repeaters and those who pass on to the next
higher class for every standard/class. Projections are calculated from the survival rates of
students after taking into consideration demographic characteristics such as birth rate, mortality
rate and migration rates.
Alongwith this, a minimum social standard of education needs to be postulated such as
compulsory schooling for every child for a certain number of years.

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Besides, provisions should be made in the estimates for the changes made by students midstream
(e.g., switching from science faculty to commerce faculty) and other forms of turnover, adult
education, literacy programmes, excess supply of products in a particular stream etc.
An assessment should also be made about the efficiency and effectiveness of the curricula,
pedagogy used and criteria of admissions and evaluation as well as the changes required therein.
This is followed by programming and operation. For example, if 800 technicians are to be
produced, a programme on the number of institutions, teachers, equipments, space, syllabi,
courses, etc., is to be worked out. Here, one institution is called a project programming and
project analysis involves the application of administrative and economic principles in order to
assess a particular situation and establish an operational programme.
(4) Costing Educational Plans:
Education is an activity wherein the institution and the society bear part of the cost and the
learner bears part of the cost. In order to improve the formulation and implementation of
educational plans, it is necessary to understand the methods of costing education and the
problems associated with it.
The unit costs of different types of educational facilities need to be computed. These costs are to
be studied in terms of the availability of present and future financial resources. It should be
ensured at this stage that the real cost of education is not too high so as to be inconsistent with
the attainment of the overall plan objectives.
(5) Decision, Implementation and Evaluation:
A five year plan needs to be broken up into annual plans. Each annual plan is scrutinized,
discussed and criticized in relation to a review of previous year’s strengths, weaknesses and
achievements. At this stage, the necessary conditions for effective implementation of the
programme need to be created. Thereafter, the actual operations take place.
At the end of the plan, evaluation is done in terms of the extent to which the objectives of the
plan have been accomplished in an effective and efficient manner.

Models of educational planning

• Educational planning models are designed to show the importance features of reality.
• In developing a model, a planners singles out elements from reality which are defined and
symbolized into systems of variables then he/she analysis the relationships among these
variables as an aid to description of the plan, explanation on how it works and forecasting its
results.
• A model then may clarify relationship between desired objectives and outcomes which are
indicated by changes in values of the variables.
• Educational planning models can be classified according to whether they are designed to
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 – Describe
– Explain
– Forecast relationships
• They also differ according to the form in which they are expressed. They can be in symbols,
maps, graphics, equations, words / statements.
a. Comprehensive Planning Model
A CPM is basically a set of goals for the educational systems with several purposes and
usage.
It is used to analyse in and entire educational system over time.
It is also used to guide educational plans towards attainment of economic and social goals.
They are used so that the planner can keep all goals in mind and attempt to solve them
within the same plan frame work.
b. Target Setting Model And Methods
• Planner require a set of models and methods for projecting targets and for forecasting the
development of social and economic system over a time. Among the projections required
for planning are
Demographic analysis and population projections
i) School enrolments
ii) Human labour requirements
iii) Economic development targets

c. Costing Model And Cost Effectiveness Model

• The rationale for using this model is to ensure that the scarce resources are put to their most
variable use.
• The models are viewed as application of profitability analysis which used to be a preserve
for private practioners but because public service uses public resources, they are also being
expected to account for the use of those resources by the same public hence the use of this
models.
• The costing model can be used in project analysis by examining one or more alternatives, by
enumerating all the costs and benefits expected either in monetary terms or non-monetary
terms.

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 • The planner determines which alternatives produces the greatness benefit. The task will be
to predict for each alternative projects, the inputs that will be required and the outputs,
sometime the outcomes that will accrue or results for each.
• The benefit cost analysis is usually done before the project is undertaken especially when
determining funding for those projects. It is based on simple idea that projects should be
funded only when benefits exceed the cost or at the very minimum when benefit equals
costs.
d. Black-box model
Inputs Processor Output
• The learner is the input in the education while the output is the graduate while processor is
teaching-learning process.
• In the black-box model the inputs and outputs are clearly portrayed for analysis but the
central process of the system is not.
• It is the input-output transformation aspects of the models that analyse the production
function nortion of the education. The biggest inputs are learners characteristics, teaching-
learning resources, time, the teachers with their characteristics etc.

Educational planning process

It’s the process of laying out a logical structure called a plan.
 It is cyclic in nature i.e.
 It varies from one country to another due to:
1. Degree to which the education plan forms the integral part of the economic plan
2. The weakness or strength of the statistical services
3. The features of the school systems-both private and public
4. The weakness or strength of the statistical services
There are five stages
1. Base Situation Analysis/identification of the national goals
2. Prepare the draft education plan/determine the best of the alternative
3. Approval and experimentation
4. Implementation/Decision making
5. Evaluation/ Feedback

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Base Situational Analysis/identification of the national goals
 Look at education system from a wider perspective e.g. societal, enrolment rate
(gross/apparent or real/net)
Answers questions such as:
1. To what extend has education assisted in achieving the laid down objectives e.g.
production of manpower, enhancing national unity.
2. What is the quality of the output/outcome? Do they meet the requirements of the
available job opportunities?
3. Do the output need retraining?
4. Do we need to review our curriculum?
5. Is education evolutionary enough?
'Note:' A system that does not keep data cannot give this information thus need to keep data to
be objective enough Before going to the next stage study carefully the existing government
policies on education.
Preparation of Draft Education Plan/determining the best of the alternative/ Developing
the Proposal
There is need to build consensus among the various stakeholders i.e. those with divergent
ideologies e. g. sociologist, economists also between theorists (those with credentials e.g.
educationists) and pragmatists (those with practical experiences e.g. teachers. Note
 The best plan/alternative should be in view of;
1. Relative cost
2. Benefits
3. Time requirement
4. Practical feasibility
5. Regard education Effective/efficient
 Develop a plan of action where you are, where you want to be (destination) and the
means to get there: (give a brief of the strategic plan processes)
3 Lobbing, Approval & Experimentation
 Involves conditions that would influence the achievement of the objectives e.g. govt,
politicians, civil society, consider the rate of inflation which may affect the cost of living,
cost per student place
 The plan should not be dictated to people

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 Planners to educate people to understand the document
 Lobby the ministers, Permanent Secretaries – these will be used to educate the cabinet,
MPs and president
Planners are technically qualified: why should they go for MPs (some not competent). We
should have a broader national interest for the plan not personal.
'''Experimentation, Pilot Planning, Pre-testing, Pilot Study'''
 This is a stage where planning is tried and tested to identify the areas of weakness
 Choose a few selected schools and sample to implement the plan. These should be
representative.
 Done to avoid continuous repetition of an error
 After piloting: correct and improve the errors based on the results.
4 Implementation/Decision making*Every stakeholder should be involved i.e. teachers, head
teachers, parents, government (All those who were consulted earlier)
 It’s the most difficult stage in the planning process
 It involves dealing or struggling with the reality
 This involves implementation of new methodologies, structures e.t.c. To what extent is
the administrative structure flexible enough to implement this change? Most of them are
conservatists maintain the status quo (resist change).
 All those involved in the implementation should be firmly in touch with daily practice,
should have clarity of vision, insight and imagination
 The task is to get rid of this barrier and accommodate the change which is of much
benefits
 Teachers will implement the changes through in-service training
 As we implement, evaluation is going on
1. Formative i.e. continuous
2. Summative i.e. at the end
5 Evaluation/Feedback
 It’s the last stage
 For any planning to be realistic there must be feedback from current experiences
 There must be a self-evaluating mechanism to address the following questions.
1. What are the problems with the plan
2. What have we achieved

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 3. What have we not achieved
4. Why have we not achieved it
5. How do we improve what we have achieved
 After evaluation (answers to these questions), we start to plan on how to improve the
situation. We go back to where we started –Base Situation Analysis.

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