ACADEMIA Letters

Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport

network in Riyadh
Abu Toasin Oakil, Senior research associate, KAPSARC, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Abdulrahman Muhsen, Research fellow, KAPSARC, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Abstract
Since Saudi Arabia committed to the Paris Agreement, Riyadh has invested significantly in
its urban transport system. The Riyadh metro system is the first major initiative to combat
transportation-related emissions and climate change. According to Riyadh Metro, this ini-
tiative is expected to reduce daily car trips by 250,000. For this new initiative, Riyadh must
publish a systematic assessment of the expected impact of the metro and the supporting bus
network on trips. This study, therefore, focuses on the potential impact of the proposed public
transport system. We analyze the number of daily trips that can be served by the proposed
system. We used the origin-destination matrices from the four-step traffic model applied in
2016 for Riyadh. Looking into the location of public transport stations and the number of
trips with respect to each traffic analysis zone, we find that the public transport system can
potentially cover 30% of trips made by private vehicles.

Introduction
Urban passenger transport in Middle Eastern cities is traditionally car-dependent, and mass
transit systems are uncommon in these cities. Cars were used for more than 90% of trips in
Riyadh in 2016 (Potoglou & Alotaibi, 2018). Historically, Riyadh has lacked a widespread,
integrated mass transit system. The proposed Riyadh metro and integrated bus network are

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

1
the first large scale public transport initiatives in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Riyadh-Metro,
2020).
Information about the expected impact of the proposed metro system is very limited. Some
research has been conducted from the engineering (e.g., (Cueto et al., 2020; Cueto et al., 2018;
Schneider et al., 2018) and strategic perspectives (Alotaibi & Potoglou, 2018; Beccastrini et
al., 2020). However, research from the perspective of urban mobility is even scarcer. In
one previous study, Potoglou and Alotaibi (Potoglou & Alotaibi, 2018) analyzed travelers’
intentions to use the metro. This study aims to contribute to this body of research. Specifically,
we investigate the potential coverage of the Riyadh metro and the associated bus network in
terms of number of daily trips in Riyadh. The number of trips that can be served by the public
transport system is a key performance measure. The intention is to give an insight into the
service area of Riyadh public transport system.

Method and Data

We analyze the proposed system’s trip coverage by calculating the number of trips that may
shift from cars to the metro or bus. Two important aspects of this methodology are as follows.

1. Trip accessibility, that is, the number of trips that can be taken via the public transport
system

2. Potentiality, that is, the optimum probability of these trips shifting to public transport

Here, accessibility is measured based on the catchment areas of metro stations and bus
stops. A catchment area is a geographical buffer around a station or stop. Based on prior
studies (e.g., (Zielstra & Hochmair, 2011), we define a walkable distance from a metro station
as an 800-meter buffer. We use 400-meter buffers for bus stops. A trip’s origin and destination
must be within the catchment area of a metro station or bus stop for the trip to be considered
accessible. Figure 1 illustrates the catchment areas for Riyadh public transport system.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

2
Figure 1. Geographic representation of metro station (yellow) and bus stop (green) locations
and catchment areas in Riyadh.

The number of accessible trips is based on the classic four-step traffic model developed by
the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) in 2016.1 This model reflects aggregated trips
per traffic analysis zone (TAZ). It is very likely that the geographical buffers around stations
or stops do not completely cover the TAZs. Thus, the estimated number of accessible trips is
assumed to be proportional to a station’s or stop’s coverage area, that is,

1
This organization was previously known as the Arriyadh/Riyadh Development Authority.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

3
 The above equation estimates the total number of trips that are accessible via the public
transport system. However, it is unlikely that 100% of these trips will shift to public transport.
Thus, the potential trip coverage is

The potentiality factor is based on the number of public transport riders in an ideal sit-
uation. However, the ideal situation is a theoretical concept rather than a practical scenario.
Thus, we investigate some reported success stories of public transport development. The per-
centage of motorized vehicle trips taken by public transport may be as high as 80%, as in
Bogota (around 80%) and Tokyo (more than 80%) (Land Transport Authority, 2011). Thus,
we assume that the best possible outcome under favorable conditions is that 80% of accessible
trips shift to public transport. We therefore use 80% as the potentiality factor.
Given these equations, we perform our analysis using data from the following three sources.

• Riyadh Traffic Model Output for 2016 from the RCRC

• Geographic information on metro stations and bus stops from the RCRC

• Guidelines for accessibility and potential public transport users from the literature

The RCRC divided Riyadh into 1,492 TAZs for the traffic model. Based on the trips
originating from and ending in each TAZ, an origin-destination (O-D) matrix that indicates
the number of daily trips between TAZs was developed. The traffic model considered two
modes - cars and taxis, which comprised more than 90% of modal share in Riyadh. The
traffic model further categorized Saudi nationals’ trips into six purposes. These are home-
based work, home-based secondary school, home-based post-secondary school, home-based
shopping, home-based other and non-home-based. Here, home-based means that a trip either
originated or ended at home. However, the model categorized non-Saudis’ trips based only
on gender. Thus, there were sixteen O-D matrices based on two modes and eight groups
representing daily trips among 1,492 TAZs.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

4
Findings
We derive results for the following two outcomes

• Metro stations’ trip coverage

• The public transport system’s trip coverage, including both metro stations and bus stops

Figures 2 and 3 show our main findings for car and taxi trips, respectively. The percentages
in the figures are the proportions of trips that can be taken using only the metro or both the
metro and the bus. We refer to these percentages as the potential trip coverage. They reflect the
potential car trip coverage when we consider only car trips and the potential taxi trip coverage
when we consider only taxi trips.

Figure 2. Potential car trip coverage by the public transport.

In Riyadh, 5% of car- and taxi-related trips can potentially be covered by just the metro sys-
tem. The public transport system can potentially cover 30% of such trips. Thus, the proposed
public transport system’s accessibility is greatly improved by considering the bus network in
conjunction with the metro system. More than 90% of trips are taken by car. A potential
modal shift from cars to public transport of about 30% may lead to a modal share of over 27%
for public transport.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

5
 In general, this outcome is desirable. Cities with good public transport service have modal
shares of about 30% for public transport. The public transport shares are 33%, 37%, 24%
and 27% in New York City (United States Census Bureau, 2015), London (Mayor of London,
2017), Toronto(Statistics Canada, 2016) and Sydney (Charting Transport, 2017), respectively.
Paris had an exceptionally high public transport share of 62% in 2008 (Land Transport Au-
thority, 2011).
The findings are similar for car and taxi trips, with taxi trips more frequently beginning
and ending in the catchment areas of metro stations. Thus, taxi trips are more likely to shift
to the metro than car trips are. The results also show that non-Saudis make more car and
taxi trips within the catchment areas of metro stations. Hence, the potential car and taxi trip
coverages are generally higher for non-Saudis than for Saudis.

Figure 3. Potential taxi trip coverage by public transport.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

6
 Figure 4. Potential modal shift by current mode and nationality.

Figure 4 also shows that the potential car and taxi trip coverage is higher for non-Saudis
for both the metro and the overall public transport system. Non-Saudis are almost twice as
likely to shift their trips to the metro. These results indicate that many non-Saudis live or work
near the proposed metro stations and bus stops. They may also reflect the fact that non-Saudis
live in high-density areas, meaning that small catchment areas can cover a large number of
trips.
The results also show that the bus network increases access to schools and non-home-
based activities more than access to other activities. Ensuring access to schools and non-
home-based activities is important for reducing car trips and ownership since people often
use cars for trips to school (McDonald & Aalborg, 2009).

Conclusion
This study focuses on the trip coverage of Riyadh public transport system from a service area
perspective. As mentioned earlier, Riyadh metro received lots of attention from engineering
perspective in terms of designing the public transport system. However, Riyadh public trans-
port system is designed to serve the residents of Riyadh city and we know very little about the
service potential of the system. This study analyzes the origin and destination of trip making
by the residents and the location of public transport stations to understand the potentiality of

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

7
the system to serve its residents. Although the trip coverage is seen as a possibility of modal
shift from private vehicles to public transport, a modal-shift analysis requires in-depth be-
havioral and accessibility analyses that are beyond the scope of this study. Nonetheless, this
study gives an important insight regarding the potential coverage of Riyadh public transport
system from mobility perspective, which can be useful information to monitor progress and
plan future development of Riyadh public transport system.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

8
Acknowledgements
This study is based on an ongoing project at KAPSARC in Riyadh. The project is a collabora-
tion with the Royal Commission of Riyadh City (RCRC). KAPSARC publishes the findings,
motivations, scopes and other details of projects and research on its open publication portal.
These publications take the forms of data insights, instant insights, commentaries, discussion
papers, methodological papers, reports, workshop briefs and data. This work is a concise
version of a discussion paper and will also be available on the KAPSARC portal.

Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

9
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Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

10
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Academia Letters, October 2021 ©2021 by the authors — Open Access — Distributed under CC BY 4.0

Corresponding Author: Abu Toasin Oakil, abutoasin.oakil@kapsarc.org

Citation: Oakil, A.T., Muhsen, A. (2021). Potential trip coverage of the proposed public transport network in
Riyadh. Academia Letters, Article 3794. https://doi.org/10.20935/AL3794.

11