University of the Cordilleras

College of Teacher Education

Second Trimester, S.Y. 2020-2021

MATH 100
Mathematics in the Modern World

ANALYSIS:

Growth Models
Population of people, animals and items are growing all around us. By
understanding how things grow, we can better understand what to expect in the future.
In this chapter, we focus on time-dependent change.

Time Series
Model Forecast
Data

A. Linear (Algebraic) Growth

• an equation that describes a relationship between two quantities that show a
constant rate of change.

• If a quantity starts at size 𝑃0 and grows by 𝑑 every time period, then the quantity
after 𝑛 time periods can be determined using the equation:

𝑃n=𝑃0+𝑑𝑛 ➔In this equation, 𝑑 represents the common difference – the

amount that the quantity changes each time n increases by 1.

Example 1:

The population of Sus Philippensis in a protected forest was measured to be 885 in

2013, and was measured again to be 990, in 2018. If the population continues to grow
linearly at this rate, what will the population be in 2025?

Step 1: Find the initial value (P0). Year Population

In the problem, the initial population is 885 in 2013.
P0 2013 885
P0 = 885
P1 2014 885+d
Step 2: Find the difference or growth rate per year(d)
P2 2015 885+d+d

d = ΔQuantity P3 2016 885+d+d+d

ΔTime
P4 2017 885+d+d+d+d

Quantity: population P5 2018 990

Time: year
P6 2019

From 2013 to 2018 the population from 885 increased to 990. P7 2020
d = 990 - 885
P8 2021
2018-2013
P9 2022
d = 105
5 P10 2023
d = 21 P11 2024

***Each year the population increases by 21. P12 2025

 Year Population

P0 2013 885

Step 3: Construct the Linear Growth Model (LGM): P1 2014 885+21

P2 2015 885+21+21
Substitute the P0 and d in 𝑃n=𝑃0+𝑑𝑛
P3 2016 885+21+21+21

LGM: 𝑃n= 885 +21𝑛 P4 2017 885+21+21+21+21

Step 4: Find for the value of n. P5 2018 990

P6 2019
In the problem, we are looking for the population in 2025.
From 2013 to 2025, it will take 12 years P7 2020
or 2025-2013 = 12 years
P8 2021
n = 12
P9 2022
Step 5: Substitute the value of n to the LGM you had
P10 2023
constructed: 𝑃n= 885 +21𝑛 (n=12)
𝑃12=885+(21)(12) P11 2024
𝑃12= 885+252 P12 2025 1137
𝑃12=1,137
Final Answer: The population of Sus Philippensis will be 1137 in 2025.

Example 2:

The cost, in pesos, of a gym membership for 𝑛 months can be described by the equation:
𝑃𝑛=700+300𝑛.

What does this equation tell us?

1. The initial P0 = P700, means that in the beginning the gym membership is P700.

2. 700+300n means that with the initial cost of 700, each month there is an increase of
P300 for the gym membership.
B. Exponential (Geometric) Growth

• is a pattern of data that shows greater increases with passing time, creating the
curve of an exponential function.

• If a quantity starts at size 𝑃0 and grows by 𝑟 every time period, then the quantity
after 𝑛 time periods can be determined using the equation:
𝑃n=𝑃0 (1+𝑟)n

We call 𝑟 the growth rate.

The term 1+𝑟 is called the growth multiplier, or common ratio.

Example1:

Between 2017 and 2018, the Wano Country grew 3% to a population of 245 thousand
people. If this growth rate was to continue, what would the population be in 2025?

Step 1: Find the initial value (P0)

The initial population is 245 thousand people. P0 2017-18

P0= 245,000
P1 2018-19
Step 2: Find the growth rate(r)
P2 2019-20
r = 3%
P3 2020-21
Step 3: Construct your Exponential Growth Model (EGM)
P4 2021-22
Substitute the P0 and r to the equation: 𝑃n=𝑃0 (1+𝑟)n
P0 = 245,000 ; r = 0.03 P5 2022-23

P6 2023-24
EGM: 𝑃n=245,000 (1+.03)n
P7 2024-25
Step 4: Solve for the unknown using the EGM.

What would be the population in 2025?

From the initial year 2017-2018, there will be 7 year until 2025 (n = 7)

𝑃n=245,000 (1+0.03)n
P7=245,000(1+0.03)7
P7=245,000(1.03)7
P7=245,000(1.229873865)
P7=301,319.097
P7=301,319

Final answer: In the year 2025, the population will be 301, 319.
Example 2:

If Wano Country is growing according to the equation, 𝑃𝑛=245(1.03)n where 𝑛 is years

after 2018, and the population is measured in thousands. Find when the population will
be 400 thousand.

Step 1: Substitute the given in the formula: 𝑃𝑛=245(1.03) n

Initial year = 2018 with a population of 245,000 (P0)

Rate(r) ➔ (1+r)n ➔(1.03)n➔(1+0.03)n➔ r=0.03
Pn=400,000

Step 2: Simplify.

𝑃𝑛=245(1.03) n
400,000 = 245000(1+0.03)n
400,000 = 245000(1.03)n
400,000 = 245,000(1.03)n ➔ divide both sides by 245000
245,000 245,000

1.632653061=1.03n

1.632653061=1.03n ➔ apply the concept of logarithm

log 1.632653061 = n * log 1.03

log 1.632653061 = n * log 1.03 ➔ divide both sides by log 1.03

log 1.03 log 1.03

log 1.632653061 = n ➔ simplify

log 1.03

16.58410691 = n

Final answer: The population will reach 400,000 after 17 years (approximate).

Check:

400,000 = 245000(1.03)16.58410691
400,000 = 245000(1.632653061)
400,000 = 400,000