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Methods and Methodologies for the Seismic Hazard Assessment for

Microzonation Purposes: Tirana City Case

Article · March 2014

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 Methods and Methodologies for the Seismic Hazard Assessment for
Microzonation Purposes: Tirana City Case

Elsa Veseli1*, Altin Karriqi1, Ardit Hajrullai2

1
Faculty of Geology and Mine, Polytechnic University, Tirana, Albania; 2GeoSeis-IT Consulting, Tirana, Albania

Abstract: A review of the methods and methodologies applied in Albania in recent

years for the assessment of seismic hazard for microzonation purposes is undertaken,
including Seismic Intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) as basic seismic
parameters, both assessments carried out through deterministic and probabilistic
procedures. The importance of assessment of seismic hazard using the probabilistic
approach, which permits to add in the analysis the quantitative notion of earthquake
return period, is noted.
Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard, deterministic seismic hazard, seismic
microzonation, seismic coefficients

Introduction
Different studies have shown the importance of including a larger thickness of the soft sediments for the
study of their behaviour during strong shaking. The resonance effects of the unconsolidated sediments
situated directly over the basement can not be neglected. The 30 m thickness of the uppermost layer is
already a standard in such kind of analysis (Bourcherd, 1994; Martin, 1994; Ambraseys et al., 1996;
Ambraseys and Douglas, 2003). Part of seismic energy is trapped inside the thin layer which starts to
reverberate. This vibration reaches its maximum when seismic waves are in phase with each other (Bard
and Bouchon, 1985; Reiter, 1990).
Engineering seismological studies for detailed mapping of seismic hazard have started in Albania since
the early 80-s. In combination with the microzonation studies, these studies are thought to play an
important role for the reduction of seismic risk of the major urban areas of the country in case of strong
future earthquakes (Koçiu et al., 1984, 1985a, 1985b, 1988). Main aspects of these studies deal with the
assessment of soil response under the seismic action, resonance effects, liquefaction susceptibility
analysis, etc, aiming to provide engineers the necessary parameters for a safe design, like seismic
intensity (Ί), PGA, spectral acceleration (SA), etc.
In general, probabilistic and deterministic approaches have been proposed for such kind a studies. The
methodology for the assessment of seismic intensity is the same with that used during the microzonation
studies of the different cities in the period 1983-90 (Koçiu et al., 1984, 1985a, 1988), based on the
Medvedev’s methodology which is based on the comparison of earthquake effects with the seismic
wave’s velocities of the uppermost geological section (Medvediev, 1977). The refering intensity was
taken from the seismic zonation map of Albania corresponding to the values for rock conditions
(Sulstarova et al., 1980). Generally, the seismic intensity was determined based on the characteristics of
the first 10 m thickness of the geological sections, including the evaluation of the resonanc effects of the
soft sediments over the hard rock on the value of seismic intensity in degree (Koçiu et al., 1984, 1985a;
Duni, 1987, 1989). It has already been shown that the use of seismic intensity as design parameter for
engineering purposes is strictly related with the necessary changes of the seimic coefficients of the
actualy in force seismic desing code KTP-N.2-89 of Albania (Duni, 2003; Duni and Kuka, 2004).
The methodology applied up to now for the assessment of soil response through the physical parameters
of strong ground shaking is a combination of probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard methods,
based on the the study of the geotechnical models behaviour under the effect of the seismic action,
represented by the acceleration time histories (Duni and Kuka, 2008). Real records of acceleration time
histories have been used as input motion for such analysis (Koçiu, 1996; Koçiu and Aliaj, 1997). It is
known that such a use is valid when the characteristics of the earthquake source and those of the path
between source and time-history recording site match the characteristics of the sources that threaten the
site and corresponding source-to-site path. The probabilistic aspect of this approach is related to the
probabilistic level of PGA values used to scale the acceleration time histories applied at the basement of
the soil profiles (Duni and Kuka, 2008). Historically, the scaling acceleration of the time histories used as
input motion on the base of the geotechnical models has changed during the time (Koçiu, 1982, 1996;
Duni and Kuka, 2004)

Seismic hazard of Tirana City expressed in terms of Seismic Intensity

Until late, the macroseismic intensity was the basic parameter for the assessment of seismic hazard in
Albania. The map of seismic zonation of Albania, shown in Figure 1 published in 1980, has served as
reference for the microzonation studies that followed during the 80-s for the seven largest urban areas of
Albania, namely Vlora, Durrës, Shkodra, Tirana, Korça, Fier and Pogradeci towns (Sulstarova et al.,
1980). The map presented in Figure 1 is based on the intensities of strong historical earthquakes, the
earthquakes of XX-th century, as well as on seismotectonic synthesis. According to that, all the territory
of Albania is divided into three main zones with basic intensity of shaking VIII, VII and VI degrees of
MSK-64 scale, for average soil condition. In some parts, due to poor soil conditions, the seismic intensity
may attain up to IX degree of intensity. As average soil condition, thick, stiff quaternary sediments with
deep ground water level are considered. According to that map, the reference seismic intensity in Tirana
is VII degree according to the MSK-64 scale for medium soil conditions.
For microzonation purposes of Tirana City area, the Medvediev’s approach, based on comparisons of past
earthquakes consequences with the characteristics of the 10 m uppermost ground section in terms of
seismic waves velocity, ground water content and resonance capability was applied (Medvedjev, 1977).
The change of seismic intensity on a specific site on respect to the reference seismic intensity in degrees
MSK-64 scale given in the national zonation map (Sulstarova et al., 1980) depends upon three factors
(Medvedjev, 1977):
dI = dI Ai + dI W +dI r
Where:
• dI Ai is the difference in seismic intensity in degrees related to the change of the acoustic
impedance of the uppermost 10 m soil’s material.
• dI W is the increment of seismic intensity caused by the presence of the ground water level.
• dI r is the increment of seismic intensity caused by the resonance effects of unconsolidated
sediments situated over the bedrock.
Figure 1. Seismic zonation map of Albania (Sulstarova et al., 1980). Three seismic zones with VI, VII and
VIII intensity are shown with different colours.

In Figure 2 presented is the microzonation map of Tirana City expressed in terms of seismic intensity.

Figure 2. Seismic hazard in Tirana City in terms of seismic intensity (Kociu et al, 1988). Four seismic
zones with VI-VII, VII, VII-VIII and VIII intensity are shown with different colours.
For practical reasons related to the assessment of forces the structure has to resist during the seismic
action, seismic intensity should be transformed in acceleration in design codes. In our still in force
seismic design code KTP-N2-89, such a transformation is achieved according to the “seismic
coefficients” (KTP-N2-89). These coefficients are presented in the Table 1.

Table 1. Seismic coefficients of the actually in force KTP-N2-89 design code

Seismic coefficients kE for seismic intensity (degree)

Soil category VII VIII IX
I 0.08 0.16 0.27
II 0.11 0.22 0.36
III 0.14 0.26 0.42

For the transformation of seismic intensity values is acceleration ones it is important to have good
relations between these two parameters. The absence of strong motion data in Albania does not permits
the release of such a relations. According to Kociaj (2003), seismic coefficients of KTP-N2-89 design
code reflects those recommended by seismic intensity scale MSK-64. For seismic intensity VII degree
corresponds acceleration 0.1 g (50-100 cm/sec2); for seismic intensity VIII degree corresponds
acceleration 0.2 g (100-200 cm/sec2) and for seismic intensity IX degree corresponds acceleration 0.4 g
(200-400 cm/sec2). The values of these parameters are taken from the corresponding table presented on
the study of Seismic Zonation of Albania (Sulstarova et al., 1980).
It is known the difficulty to get a nice correlacion between these two hazard parameters. Particullarly
problematic is the use in design codes of relations between intensity and acceleration without taking into
account the standars deviation on their determination. On the Figure 3 presented are the acceleration data
and intensities observed on the sites where these accelerations are recorded, up to 1973. The scatter is
evident and although a visible tendency of increase of acceleration with the increase of intensity is seen, it
is clear that a relation between acceleration and intensity is impossible. The latter data confirm this
tendency. The EMS-98 intensity scale states that such a relation has a limited meaning (EMS-98).

Seismic hazard of Tirana City expressed in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration

Historically, PGA has been used for the first time as hazard parameter in Tirana area during the study of
microzonation of the City, carried out in 1988. As previously explained, the approach was based on the
behaviour of geotechnical models under the effect of seismic action represented by the acceleration time
histories (Koçiu et al. 1988). The probabilistic aspect of this approach is related to the probabilistic level
of PGA values used to scale the acceleration time histories applied at the basement of the soil profiles.
Based on the study of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Albania (Kuka et al. 2003), it is evident
that the PGA values used to scale the acceleration time histories chosen for the microzonation of Tirana
City have 70% exceedance probability for a time life 20 years that corresponds to a return period of 60
years (Duni, 2003).
Figure 3. Graphical presentation of peak ground acceleration recorded and observed intensities according
the data up to 1973 (Ambraseys, 1974).
Taking into account that PGA is the main parameter in the definition of seismic action in the Eurocode 8
(EC8, 2004), Duni and Kuka (2008) analyzed in detail the methodologies applied for the assessment of
seismic hazard on local level in Tirana city in terms of this parameter through deterministic and
probabilistic approaches. For 50% confidence level, the deterministic method yields PGA values that
varies between PGA = 0.217 ÷ 0.257 g in the basement, and PGA = 0.269 ÷ 0.321 g for the surface soil
conditions. The probabilistic assessments for PGA vary between PGA=0.203÷0.237g in the site
basement, and PGA = 0.296 ÷ 0.307 g for the surface soil conditions, and correspond to 475 years return
period (10% exceedance in 50 years). The results are influenced by the attenuation model selected for the
analysis and the lowest PGA values correspond to the analysis performed according to the Sabetta and
Pugliese (1996) attenuation model.
Considering the rapid changes regarding the methodology of seismic hazard assessment, Duni et al.
(2010) reviewed the seismic hazard assessment aspects of the Centre of Tirana City. For this purpose,
they used all the available information on seismic microzonation of Tirana city completed in 1988,
regarding the geotechnical and engineering geological aspects of soil, including the physical-mechanical
and seismic wave velocity properties given in that study (Kociu et al., 1988). Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Tirana Centre area for return periods of 95, 475,
975, and 2475 years, corresponding to probabilities of exceedance of 10% in 10 years, and 10%, 5%, and
2%, respectively, in 50 years. PGA and SA 10, 5, 3.3, 2, 1, and 0.5 Hz has been target of that study (Duni
et al., 2010). The reference site condition is firm rock, defined as having an average shear-wave velocity
of 800 m/sec, corresponding site class A of Eurocode 8 provisions (EC8, 2004). The doubly-truncated
exponential GR recurrence relation was used, with b-value equal 1.2, lower bound magnitude M W =4.5,
and upper bound magnitude M max =7.2. The maximum distance applied in the computation was 100 km.
As predictive ground-motion model they used that of Boore et al., (1997). The results of that analysis are
shown on the Table 2. Further in their analysis, Duni et al., (2010) simulated a set of time histories and
used them and other recorded acceleration time histories as input motion functions on the basement of the
geotechnical models of the Centre area of Tirana. All these time histories have been scaled to the PGA
value 0.27 g, according to the seismic hazard estimated for the area of Tirana Centre in bedrock level.
Recently, Veseli (2013) has shown the importance of correct shear-waves velocity values on the response
of the geotechnical models. She analyzed one of the geotechnical models of the Tirana City trying to find
the influence of the shear-wave velocity variations over the sedimentary cover on this response. She
compared the original model formulated at the end of 80-s in terms of V S with new measurements of this
parameter carried out through down-hole and MASW techniques, keeping on the same time other
parameters constant. The earthquake motion was propagated through the same column, but with three
different V S values for the uppermost part of the section. A different pronounced response was noted for
each case, indicating that modification of the old model’s V S parameter on a site-by-site case should be
carried out before using the soil response analysis data for design purposes (Veseli, 2013)..

Table 2. Maximum horizontal bedrock PGA and SA at the Tirana Centre area
Spectral Acceleration (g)
Period Sec RP=95y RP=475y RP=975y RP=2475y
PGA 0.184 0.274 0.319 0.385
0.10 0.262 0.434 0.526 0.671
0.20 0.349 0.562 0.682 0.853
0.30 0.306 0.499 0.610 0.771
0.50 0.196 0.331 0.408 0.529
1.00 0.008 0.141 0.177 0.235
2.00 0.043 0.075 0.095 0.125

Conclusions
Seismic hazard assessment practice has changed during the years in Albania. The study of 1980
(Sulstarova et al., 1980) resulted with the first hazard map describing the hazard parameter in term of
seismic intensity. The microzonation studies that followed the national mapping of seismic hazard carried
out on the seven largest urban areas of the country were entirely based on the Seismic Zonation Map. A
considerable amount of geological and geotechnical data were collected during that period that which
permitted to build the first set of microzonation maps that entered in force with the KTP-N2-89 seismic
design code of the country, still in force. Efforts have been made on that period to introduce PGA as
hazard parameter, but the strength of that parameter was very low. Based on the study of probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment of Albania (Kuka et al. 2003), it is evident that the PGA values used to scale
the acceleration time histories chosen for the microzonation of Tirana City are low.
Several attempts followed the intensity based hazard maps to express the seismic hazard in terms of
ground acceleration, velocity and displacement following both deterministic and probabilistic approaches
(Muço, 2001; Muço et al. 2002; Peçi et al. 2002; Kuka et al., 2003; Kuka and Duni, 2007; Duni and
Kuka, 2008; Duni et al., 2010; Duni and Kuka, 2010; Fundo et al., 2012). All these studies have
increased the attention among the scientists and engineers to assess the seismic hazard and design criteria
using the probabilistic approach, which permits to add in the analysis the quantitative notion of
earthquake return period. This helps the engineers to fix the reference design seismic motion for this kind
of buildings (and not only) referring to specific return period (Duni and Kuka, 2004)

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