Professional Documents
Culture Documents
30,000,000 10,000,000
90,819,419 40,155,872 53,226,198 -61.22% 6.98% -55.78%
(81,389,891) (92,052,916) (67,302,849) 60.44% 21.69% 13.10%
490,179 490,179 490,179 171.26% 0.00% 0.00%
567,338,833 453,880,134 396,479,954 -18.42% 47.47% -20.00%
567,338,833 456,353,483 397,946,477 -18.42% 47.47% -19.56%
(2,473,349) (1,466,523)
27,622,093 1,252,070 4,063,884 183.03% 7.37% -95.47%
9,552,021 1,252,070 4,063,884 0.62% 144.46% -86.89%
17,186,802
883,270 -63.23% -53.87% -100.00%
-100.00%
23,085,078
- - -
- - -
270,187 980,000 220,000 -96.20% -89.47% 262.71% -77.55%
(4,517,187) (3,835,187) (680,000) 108.40% -90.44% -15.10% -82.27%
- - -
(327,443,752) (368,374,221) (478,067,878) 11.67% 7.46% 12.50% 29.78%
- - -
- - -
0 23,085,078 23,492,876 0 0
0 0
23,085,078 23,492,876 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
accrued expense
INCOME STATEMENT 2016 2017
1. Revenue 3,678,351,053 4,056,607,554
2. Deduction from revenue 369,607,443 231,948,887
3. Net revenue 3,308,743,610 3,824,658,667
Revenue Growth 15.59%
4. Cost of goods sold 2,248,176,460 2,901,883,582
% of Revenue 67.95% 75.87%
5. Gross profit 1,060,567,151 922,775,085
6. Financial income 48,978,173 24,481,735
7. Financial expenses 41,507,236 97,838,322
Of which: Interest expenses 3,396,590 1,262,424
Other expense 38,110,646 96,575,898
8.Share of associates and joint ventures' result 494,078 453,163
9. Selling expenses 166,921,965 135,639,590
S/Revenue 5.04% 3.55%
10. General and administrative expenses 115,282,372 124,418,207
G&A/Revenue 3.48% 3.25%
11. Operating profit 786,327,829 589,813,865
12. Other income 384,684 565,798
13.Other expenses 2,727,583 7,422,963
14. Other profit (2,342,898) (6,857,165)
Share of associates and joint ventures' result
15. Profit before tax 783,984,931 582,956,701
16. Current corporate income tax expenses 133,538,243 144,928,431
Tax Rate 17.03% 24.86%
17. Deferred income tax expenses 23,042,205 (26,666,716)
18. Net profit after tax 627,404,483 464,694,986
19. Earnings per share (VND) 13,796 5,677
Book value per share 50,516 29,918
Price per share 191 85.6
D&A 87,290,025 98,883,259
EBITDA 874,671,546 683,102,384
Number of shares outstanding 45,478,480 81,860,938
Dividend
EBIT 780,588,341 581,694,277
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
4,129,972,734 4,342,954,954 4,700,439,809 5,124,667,146 5,534,632,942
210,335,296 5,615,543 14,799,482 16,135,175 17,425,965
3,919,637,438 4,337,339,411 4,685,640,326 5,108,531,971 5,517,206,976
2.48% 10.66% 8.03% 9.0% 8%
3,047,590,783 3,349,334,639 3,438,658,560 3,846,931,798 4,154,680,654
77.75% 77.22% 73.39% 75% 75%
872,046,655 988,004,771 1,246,981,766 1,261,600,173 1,362,526,322
25,106,601 37,121,320 78,259,661 78,259,661 78,259,661
105,484,986 110,971,230 123,875,152 118,776,776 128,197,896
292,428 125,174 50,844 678,853 652,314
105,192,558 110,846,056 123,824,308 118,097,923 127,545,582
1,071,407 1,497,364 1,672,608 1,672,608 1,672,608
165,853,774 270,352,327 485,053,580 423,626,395 457,515,880
4.23% 6.23% 10.35% 8.29% 8.29%
97,832,604 116,704,323 63,737,865 103,472,548 111,750,199
2.50% 2.69% 1.36% 2.03% 2.03%
529,053,299 528,595,576 654,247,438 695,656,724 744,994,616
1,132,541 973,387 2,407,628 2,407,628 2,407,628
265,182 291,490 115,030 115,030 115,030
867,359 681,897 2,292,597 2,292,597 2,292,597
0 0
529,920,658 529,277,473 656,540,035 697,949,322 747,287,214
89,704,488 109,648,608 127,770,009 139,589,864 149,457,443
16.93% 20.72% 19.46% 20.00% 20.00%
12,605,983 (3,137,432) 6,184,454 6,184,454 6,184,454
427,610,188 422,766,297 522,585,572 552,175,003 591,645,317
5,224 5,164 6,384 6.75 7.23
29,973 30,164 30,192
52.6 45.2 62.6 368,374,221 368,374,221
172,420,049 187,572,489 208,499,822
702,633,135 716,975,136 865,090,701
81,860,938 81,860,938 81,860,938
368,374,221 368,374,221 368,374,221
529,628,230 529,152,299 656,489,191 698,628,174 747,939,528
2023F 2024F 2025F
5,922,050,618 6,336,587,532 6,780,142,030
18,645,762 19,950,944 21,347,490
5,903,404,856 6,316,636,587 6,758,794,540
7% 7% 7%
4,445,503,324 4,756,683,580 5,089,646,454
75% 75% 75%
1,457,901,532 1,559,953,008 1,669,148,086
78,259,661 78,259,661 78,259,661
137,097,537 146,620,153 156,809,352
623,917 593,533 561,021
136,473,620 146,026,620 156,248,331
1,672,608 1,672,608 1,672,608
489,541,444 523,808,797 560,474,865
8.29% 8.29% 8.29%
119,572,579 127,942,526 136,898,369
2.03% 2.03% 2.03%
791,622,242 841,513,801 894,897,769
2,407,628 2,407,628 2,407,628
115,030 115,030 115,030
2,292,597 2,292,597 2,292,597
0 0 0
793,914,840 843,806,399 897,190,367
158,782,968 168,761,280 179,438,073
20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
6,184,454 6,184,454 6,184,454
628,947,418 668,860,665 711,567,840
7.68 8.17 8.69
Constant of 2019
Constant of 2020
Constant of 2020
Constant of 2020
Constant of 2020
CAGR
5.76%
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW 2016 2017
- (506,000,000) (514,000,000) 0 0 0
250,000,000 - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
437,500 - - 0 0 0
22,799,473 22,857,074 51,456,576 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
175,582,036 (691,317,517) (557,928,443) (162,898,309) (175,005,216) (187,750,095)
- - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
270,187 980,000 220,000 (1,932,182) (2,086,754) (2,232,824)
(4,517,187) (3,835,187) (680,000) 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
(327,443,752) (368,374,221) (478,067,878) (368,374,221) (368,374,221) (368,374,221)
- - - 0 0 0
- - - 0 0 0
843,806,399 897,190,367
254,962,137 275,586,782
0 0
0 0
0 0
593,533 561,021
1,099,362,068 1,173,338,171
(29,169,358) (27,054,205)
(42,490,592) (45,464,934)
22,369,909 25,034,841
0 0
(593,533) (561,021)
(174,945,734) (185,622,527)
0 0
874,532,761 939,670,325
(200,627,715) (214,813,047)
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
(200,627,715) (214,813,047)
0 0
0 0
(2,389,119) (2,556,355)
0 0
0 0
(368,374,221) (368,374,221)
0 0
0 0
(370,763,340) (370,930,576)
303,141,706 353,926,701
562,298,114 865,439,820
865,439,820 1,219,366,522
2021E 2022F 2023F
EBIT*(1-Tax rate) 558,902,540 598,351,622 635,631,005
Depreciation 200,919,770 217,672,545 235,689,790
Changes in WC (302,140,795) (56,880,179) (36,883,780)
CAPEX (162,898,309) (175,005,216) (187,750,095)
FCFF 294,783,205 584,138,772 646,686,920
Terminal value
Present value of FCFF 265,247,041 472,946,105 471,126,472
Using 3-stage growth model, assuming a 10-year transition into the mature growth period
RELATIVE VALUATION
Company Name Ticker Equity Value NI
CTCP Nhựa Bình Minh BMP 5,124,557,319 522,585,572
CTCP Nhựa Thiếu Niên Tiền Phong NTP 4,240,662,588 447,189,022
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hoa Sen HSG 9,841,203,203 1,153,014,017
Average PE
5% 7%
PE
9.81
9.48 36.00 117,796,183.00
8.54 22.15 444,298,113.00
9.27
PE
9.81
9.48
8.54
9.27
Summary
Valuation Date 12/31/20
Market Price 62,700
Outstanding Shares 81,860,938
Sustainable Growth Rate 1.50%
WACC 11.14%
Revenue Forecast
8,000,000,000 10%
7,000,000,000 9%
8%
6,000,000,000
7%
5,000,000,000 6%
4,000,000,000 5%
3,000,000,000 4%
3%
2,000,000,000
2%
1,000,000,000 1%
0 0%
2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
94,707
0.002%
2025F
6,780,142,030
7%
2025F
155,437
7%
n capacity forecast
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2023F 2024F 2025F
năm 2017, 2018 đều không có long term loan, 2019 có 23,085,078 là provision nên forecast BMP không có longterm loan tron
2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27% 1.27%
678,853 652,314 623,917 593,533 561,021
53,377,818 51,291,064 49,058,240 46,669,120 44,112,765
Accumulated depreciation
Beginning balance 625,196,994 705,821,374
Increase 81,714,590 93,185,013
Depreciation/Average Tangible Fixed Asset 8.49% 7.39%
Depreciation within period 81,714,590 93,185,013
Decrease 1,090,210 2,326,668
Liquidation&Disposal/Average Tangible Fixed Asset 0.14% 0.18%
Liquidating, disposing 727,605 2,326,668
Other 362,604
Ending balance 705,821,374 796,679,719
Net book value
Beginning 253,279,265 341,426,990
Ending 341,426,990 677,513,071
Accumulated depreciation
Beginning balance 8,527,250 23,657,266
Increase 15,130,015 5,698,246
Increase/Average Intangible Fixed Asset 9.68% 2.03%
Depreciation within period 5,575,435 5,698,246
Moving from long-term prepaid expenses 9,554,580
Ending balance 23,657,266 29,355,512
Net book value
Beginning 27,893,849 252,418,522
Ending 252,418,522 257,193,857
266,080,209 - - -
- - -
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.30176281
R Square 0.09106079
Adjusted R Square 0.09033248
Standard Error 0.03093903
Observations 1250
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.119680852534 0.119681 125.0291 9.9178414E-28
Residual 1248 1.19461533983 0.000957
Total 1249 1.314296192364
4.20 4.03
2.93 3.28
2019 2020
11.03 15.66
6.56 8.09
27.67 26.42
33.10 23.31
55.64 45.13
13.19 13.82
7.11 8.46
1.53 1.60
75.56 54.63
2019 2020
2.58% 2.79%
0.00% 0.00%
0.13 0.18
2.53 1.67
42.36 -6.83
4229.33 12913.83
2019 2020
22.78% 26.61%
12.21% 14.01%
9.75% 11.15%
17.69% 21.11%
17.18% 21.15%
0.10 0.11
1.52 1.55
1.15 1.22
2019 2020
0.01 0.01
0.00 0.00