Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Note
2016 2017 2018 2015 2016
2,145,496,749,447 4,076,763,652,003 8,018,827,145,835 3.28% 32.76%
1,726,940,597 7,155,348,862 7,254,532,446 -63.59% 15.14%
2,143,769,808,850 4,069,608,303,141 8,011,572,613,389 3.45% 32.78%
1,836,734,397,150 3,519,223,197,973 7,338,636,540,198 3.40% 28.92%
307,035,411,700 550,385,105,168 672,936,073,191 3.86% 61.76%
30,198,848,862 55,755,260,107 61,517,601,742 168.78% 34.85%
53,927,481,929 95,052,847,758 208,587,237,486 93.04% 7.87%
27,284,472,139 80,592,049,351 125,980,474,352 40.02% 13.37%
56,882,135,462 105,724,321,494 156,562,809,984 -4.70% -24.39%
62,622,750,100 79,322,555,685 123,618,312,196 15.65% 50.51%
165,553,232,870 326,060,640,338 245,685,315,267 -3.01% 239.57%
8,081,453,308 2,388,598,927 11,209,698,006 -69.81% 333.40%
7,037,904,139 394,931,990 2,910,690,089 -99.92% 169014.73%
1,043,549,169 1,993,666,937 8,299,007,917 185.15% -43.91%
1,751,339,799 - - -46.17% -48.21%
166,596,782,039 328,054,307,275 253,984,323,184 -11.51% 229.15%
23,692,445,025 64,433,475,421 42,772,027,927 9.31% 136.22%
20,680,603 256,725,898 936,618,304 -85.05% -43.30%
142,925,017,617 263,364,105,956 212,148,913,561 -15.14% 252.48%
141,985,475,965 223,342,661,746 180,260,475,000 4796.02% 254.82%
939,541,652 40,021,444,210 31,888,438,561 -98.87% 76.29%
1,933 2,427 1,239 -15.14% 206.28%
16,760 19,437 17,408 -15.62% 1.24%
15,528 24,125 14,700 7.67% 109.05%
92,958,744,347 168,028,491,091 244,951,380,881 29.84% 11.52%
286,839,998,525 576,674,847,717 624,916,178,417 14.04% 81.50%
73,955,000 108,533,000 171,200,000
Horizontal analysis
Vertical analysis
2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017
90.01% 96.70% 100.26% 100.09% 100.08% 100.18%
314.34% 1.39% 0.26% 0.09% 0.08% 0.18%
89.83% 96.86% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
91.60% 108.53% 88.29% 88.24% 85.68% 86.48%
79.26% 22.27% 11.71% 11.76% 14.32% 13.52%
84.63% 10.34% 0.53% 1.39% 1.41% 1.37%
76.26% 119.44% 1.66% 3.10% 2.52% 2.34%
195.38% 56.32% 1.10% 1.49% 1.27% 1.98%
85.87% 48.09% 5.06% 4.66% 2.65% 2.60%
26.67% 55.84% 2.31% 2.58% 2.92% 1.95%
96.95% -24.65% 3.22% 3.02% 7.72% 8.01%
-70.44% 369.30% 0.40% 0.12% 0.38% 0.06%
-94.39% 637.01% 0.35% 0.00% 0.33% 0.01%
91.05% 316.27% 0.04% 0.12% 0.05% 0.05%
#VALUE! #VALUE! 0.40% 0.21% 0.08% #VALUE!
96.92% -22.58% 3.67% 3.13% 7.77% 8.06%
171.96% -33.62% 0.59% 0.62% 1.11% 1.58%
1141.38% 264.83% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
84.27% -19.45% 3.06% 2.51% 6.67% 6.47%
57.30% -19.29% 0.05% 2.48% 6.62% 5.49%
4159.68% -20.32% 3.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.98%
25.56% -48.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15.97% -10.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
55.36% -39.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
80.76% 45.78% 4.11% 5.16% 4.34% 4.13%
101.04% 8.37% 8.88% 9.79% 13.38% 14.17%
2018
100.09%
0.09%
100.00%
91.60%
8.40%
0.77%
2.60%
1.57%
1.95%
1.54%
3.07%
0.14%
0.04%
0.10%
#VALUE!
3.17%
0.53%
0.01%
2.65%
2.25%
0.40%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
3.06%
7.80%
BALANCE SHEET 2014 2015
ASSETS
A. CURRENT ASSET 694,379,188,147 1,071,561,008,455
I. Cash and cash equivalent 336,807,716,067 470,061,718,120
1. Cash 122,985,042,067 242,393,182,850
2. Cash equivalents 213,822,674,000 227,668,535,270
II. Short term investments 30,000,000,000
1. Held to maturity investments 30,000,000,000
III. Short term receivables 154,088,536,599 363,509,670,487
1. Short-term trade receivables 122,485,772,971 103,363,445,699
2. Short-term advances to supplier 4,571,973,920 169,259,565,534
3. Short-term loan receivables (162,105,381) (162,105,381)
4. Other short-term receivables 27,192,895,089 91,048,764,635
IV. Inventories 137,522,087,909 214,186,555,570
1. Inventories 137,522,087,909 214,186,555,570
2. Provision for devaluation of inventories
V. Other short term assets 35,960,847,572 23,803,064,278
1. Short-term repayments 8,286,725,798 14,690,447,772
2. Value added tax deductibles 1,177,133,335 9,112,616,506
3. Taxes and amount receivable from the State budget 1,292,888,969
4. Others 25,204,099,470
B. NON CURRENT ASSETS 727,271,546,766 883,203,669,585
I. Long term receivables
1. Other long term receivables
II. Fixed assets 679,968,837,985 636,532,208,533
1. Tangible fixed assets 618,302,904,756 595,375,421,956
- Cost 851,063,493,212 901,229,077,489
- Accumulated depreciation (232,760,588,456) (305,923,655,533)
2. Intangible asset 33,092,769,919 41,156,786,677
- Cost 36,153,869,936 45,206,131,504
- Accumulated depreciation (3,061,100,017) (4,049,344,827)
III. Long term assets in progress 28,573,163,310 191,159,377,412
1. Long term construction in progress 28,573,163,310 191,159,377,412
IV. Long term investments 39,205,453,451 42,587,327,201
1. Held to maturity investments 39,205,453,451 42,587,327,201
V. Other long term assets 8,097,255,330 12,924,756,339
1. Long term repayments 8,061,140,389 12,905,115,705
2. Deferred income tax assets 36,114,941 (359,366)
TOTAL ASSETS 1,421,650,734,913 1,954,764,678,040
RESOURCES
C. LIABILITIES 635,324,911,650 1,135,279,409,795
I. Current liabilities 507,673,920,248 667,079,248,529
1. Short term trade account payable 329,022,191,692 200,885,707,160
2. Short term advances from customers 160,688,554,128 12,300,795,564
3. Tax and amounts payable to the State budget 330,215,456 5,746,819,042
4. Payable to employees 7,125,469,132 4,560,270,983
5. Short term accrued expense
6. Short term unearned revenue 6,541,650,794
7. Other short term payable 3,104,251,244 3,856,673,854
8. Other short term loans and obligation under finance leases 438,769,898,696
9. Bonus and welfare funds 861,587,802 959,083,230
II. Long term liabilities 127,650,991,402 468,200,161,266
1. Long term loans and obligation under finance leases 127,650,991,402 171,262,661,266
2. Deferred income tax liabilities
3. Convertible bonds 296,637,500,000
D. EQUITY 776,936,974,055 819,485,268,245
I. Owner's equity 776,936,974,055 819,485,268,245
1. Owner's contributed capital (Paid in capital) 396,000,000,000 494,999,880,000
- Ordinary shares carrying voting rights 396,000,000,000 494,999,880,000
2. Share premium 147,501,567,329 147,408,567,389
3. Foreign exchange rate difference 1,587,734,457
4. Investments and development funds 15,755,216,989 35,950,759,648
5. Other funds under owner's equity 14,053,617,323 13,177,404,323
6. Retained earnings
- Retained earnings accumulated to the prior year
- Retained earnings of the current year
7. Non-controlling interest 9,388,849,208 9,921,791,820
TOTAL RESOURCES 1,421,650,734,913 1,954,764,678,040
2016 2017 2018 2015 2016
52.99%
8.57%
2.86%
5.68%
9.57%
9.57%
21.42%
9.19%
7.06%
3.90%
1.27%
11.46%
11.50%
-0.04%
1.96%
0.28%
1.64%
0.04%
0.00%
47.01%
0.28%
0.28%
29.20%
28.08%
37.96%
-9.89%
1.13%
1.26%
-0.13%
16.04%
16.04%
0.64%
0.64%
0.84%
0.83%
0.01%
100.00%
0.00%
60.42%
42.58%
8.27% x
0.58%
0.19%
0.26%
0.12%
0.01%
0.04%
33.10% x
0.01%
17.83%
17.83% x
0.00%
0.00%
39.58%
39.58% x
22.74% x
22.74% x
7.07%
0.00%
0.77%
0.18%
3.53%
1.14%
2.39%
5.30%
100.00%
STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW 2014 2015
I. CF from operating activities
1. (Loss)/Profit before tax 57,200,304,377 50,614,922,554
2. Adjustment
Depreciation for:
and amortisation of fixed assets and investment
properties 64,200,062,759 83,358,285,094
Provisions
(Profit)/Loss from exchange rate difference of re-evaluation 162,105,381 -
monetary items dominated in foreign currencies 2,986,534,493 1,211,216,521
(Profit)/Loss from investment (4,761,808,398) (11,078,921,256)
Interest expense 17,187,219,661 24,065,811,358
Other adjustments
3. Operating profit before movements in working capital 136,974,418,273 148,171,314,271
(Increase)/Decrease receivables (50,808,261,982) (118,649,260,136)
(Increase)/Decrease inventories 62,503,909,157 (76,664,467,661)
(Increase)/Decrease payables (37,991,421,956) (54,674,388,479)
(Increase)/Decrease prepayment (1,541,945,933) (11,267,697,290)
(Increase)/Decrease in trading securities - -
Interest paid (22,686,784,106) (24,065,811,358)
Corporate income tax paid (14,191,339,022) (3,294,062,793)
Other receipts from operating activities 34,680,407,297 73,798,102,941
Other payments from operating activities (7,639,446,655) (6,702,806,645)
Net cash generated by/(used in) operating activities 99,299,535,073 (73,349,077,150)
II. CF
1. Acquisition and from investing
construction of fixedactivities
assets and other long-
term assets
2. Proceeds from sale, disposal of fixed assets and other long- (109,290,786,977) (290,399,851,419)
term assets 3,524,270,590 5,661,363,636
3. Cash outflow for lending, buying debt instruments (30,000,000,000) -
4. Cash recovered from lending, selling debt instruments 1,500,000,000 30,000,000,000
5. Equities investment in other entities - -
6. Cash recovered from investments in other entities - -
7. Interest earned, dividends and profits received 6,706,659,544 10,369,304,107
Net cash generated by/(used in) investing activities (127,559,856,843) (244,369,183,676)
III. CF from financing activities
1. Proceeds from share issue and owner's contributed capital 217,798,900,000 -
2. Proceeds from borrowings 1,317,734,346,905 1,858,860,744,893
3. Repayment of borrowings (1,281,349,175,035) (1,406,090,290,912)
4. Dividend and profits paid (19,761,631,208) (1,935,000,000)
Net cash generated by/(used in) financing activities 234,422,440,662 450,835,453,981
Net increase/(decrease) in cash 206,162,118,892 133,117,193,155
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year 130,266,723,762 336,807,716,067
Effects of changes in foregin exchange rates 378,873,413 136,808,898
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 336,807,716,067 470,061,718,120
2016 2017 2018 2015 2016
96.92% -22.58%
80.76% 45.78%
#VALUE! #VALUE!
-75.80% -26.97%
207.83% 10.73%
195.38% 56.32%
89.60% 8.54%
194.95% -90.85%
-63.58% 282.58%
-83.43% -68.77%
-31.83% 166.41%
181.25% 61.72%
155.21% -19.69%
89.30% -55.23%
176.81% 297.07%
-200.62% 147.78%
-35.41% 144.05%
-99.09% #VALUE!
#VALUE! 250.83%
#VALUE! 87.23%
#VALUE! #DIV/0!
#VALUE! -87.83%
3.14% 88.04%
30.95% -276.23%
382.81% 248.67%
58.17% 90.79%
104.51% 81.00%
15.54% 36.43%
1.63% 208.97%
-262.21% 32.14%
-13.48% 25.30%
-172.91% 145.67%
25.30% 26.67%
Ratio 2014 2015 2016
1/ Liquidity ratio
Current (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) 1.37 1.61 1.19
Quick (Current Assets - Inventory / Current Liabilitie 1.10 1.29 0.80
2/ Activity ratio
Account Receivable Turnover (Sale / Av.AR) 13.53 14.30 13.21
Inventory Turnover (COGS / Av.Inventory) 8.16 8.10 5.53
Account Payable Turnover (COGS / Av.AP) 6.79 5.38 7.27
Days Receivable Outstanding 26.98 25.53 27.63
Days Inventory Outstanding 44.71 45.05 66.05
Days Payables Outstanding 53.73 67.88 50.19
Tangible Fixed Asset Turnover 2.71 2.66 2.22
Total Asset Turnover 1.21 0.96 0.85
Cash Coversion Cycle (Net days financing required 17.96 2.70 43.49
3/ Solvency ratio
Debt to Equity 0.23 0.90 2.32
LT Debt to Equity 0.16 0.21 1.03
Debt ratio (Liabilities to Assets) 0.45 0.58 0.69
CFO to Liabilities 0.16 -0.06 0.04
CFO to CAPEX 7.56 3.20 0.11
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest expense) 4.33 3.10 7.11
4/ Profitability ratio
Gross profit Margin (%) 11.71% 11.76% 14.32%
Operating Margin (%) 4.77% 4.63% 9.04%
Profit Margin (%) 3.06% 2.51% 6.67%
ROA (%) 3.72% 2.40% 5.68%
ROE(%) 7.24% 5.08% 16.11%
NI / Sale 0.03 0.03 0.07
Sale / Asset 1.10 0.83 0.70
Asset / Equity 1.83 2.39 3.22
5/ Market value
P/E 9.28 11.77 8.03
M/B 0.35 0.45 0.93
2017 2018 Industry Competitors: TTP, VBC, RDP, SPP, TPC
2022F 2023F
7,752,306,028,523 10,534,095,936,790
2,781,789,908,267 3,401,704,104,970
14.29% 14.29%
10,534,095,936,790 13,935,800,041,760
35.88% 32.29%
2022F 2023F
2,120,048,119,506 2,531,130,636,294
411,082,516,789 502,691,120,090
2.11% 2.11%
2,531,130,636,294 3,033,821,756,384
19.39% 19.86%
2014 2015
CAPEX 109,290,786,977 290,399,851,419
CAPEX % of Net Sales 7.00% 17.99%
Depreciation 64,178,474,174 83,358,285,094
% change 29.89%
(1,170,000,000,000) -
Note
33 gallon = 1 ton
1 USD = 23500 VND
Designed production capacity (tons) Price (VND/ton) Volume (tons)
12,000 45,000,000 10,800
16,800 45,000,000 15,624
10,800 60,000,000 10,476
162,000 33,000,000 4,860
11,000 34,075,000 8,800
34,800 45,000,000 34,800
9,600 100,000,000 1,920
30,000 45,250,000
14,000 80,000,000
210,000,000 300,000
80,188,271,458
87,280
Utilization rate 2017 Volume (tons) Utilization rate 2018 Volume (tons) Utilization rate 2019
90% 486,000,000,000 11,400 95% 513,000,000,000 12,000 100% 540,000,000,000
93% 703,080,000,000 15,960 95% 718,200,000,000 16,800 100% 756,000,000,000
97% 628,560,000,000 10,800 100% 648,000,000,000 10,800 100% 648,000,000,000
3% 160,380,000,000 100,440 62% 3,314,520,000,000 105,300 65% 3,474,900,000,000
80% 299,860,000,000 11,000 100% 374,825,000,000 11,000 100% 374,825,000,000
100% 1,566,000,000,000 36,888 106% 1,659,960,000,000 36,888 106% 1,659,960,000,000
20% 192,000,000,000 7,008 73% 700,800,000,000 9,600 100% 960,000,000,000
80,188,271,458 80,188,271,458
4,035,880,000,000.00 193,496 8,009,493,271,458 202,388 8,493,873,271,458
4,069,608,303,141 8,011,572,613,389
Volume (tons) Utilization rate 2020 Volume (tons) Utilization rate 2021 Volume (tons) Utilization rate
12,000 100% 540,000,000,000 12000 100% 540,000,000,000 12000 100%
16,800 100% 756,000,000,000 16800 100% 756,000,000,000 16800 100%
10,800 100% 648,000,000,000 10800 100% 648,000,000,000 10800 100%
113,400 70% 3,742,200,000,000 121500 75% 4,009,500,000,000 129600 80%
11,000 100% 374,825,000,000 11000 100% 374,825,000,000 11000 100%
36,888 106% 1,659,960,000,000 36888 106% 1,659,960,000,000 36888 106%
9,600 100% 960,000,000,000 9600 100% 960,000,000,000 9600 100%
6,000 20% 271,500,000,000 7500 25% 339,375,000,000 9000 30%
2,800 20% 224,000,000,000 3500 25% 280,000,000,000 4200 30%
10,500,000 5% 3,150,000,000,000 21000000 10% 6,300,000,000,000 31500000 15%
80,188,271,458 80,188,271,458
12,406,673,271,458 21229588 15,947,848,271,458 31739888
2022 Volume (tons) Utilization rate 2023
540,000,000,000 12000 100% 540,000,000,000
756,000,000,000 16800 100% 756,000,000,000
648,000,000,000 10800 100% 648,000,000,000
4,276,800,000,000 162000 100% 5,346,000,000,000
374,825,000,000 11000 100% 374,825,000,000
1,659,960,000,000 36888 106% 1,659,960,000,000
960,000,000,000 9600 100% 960,000,000,000
407,250,000,000 10500 35% 475,125,000,000
336,000,000,000 4900 35% 392,000,000,000
9,450,000,000,000 42000000 20% 12,600,000,000,000
80,188,271,458 80,188,271,458
19,489,023,271,458 42274488 23,832,098,271,458
INCOME STATEMENT 2014 2015
1. Gross revenue 1,564,763,399,903 1,616,048,818,116
2. Deduction 4,119,790,812 1,499,870,215
3. Net revenue 1,560,643,609,091 1,614,548,947,901
Revenue growth 3.45%
4. Cost of goods sold 1,377,898,703,125 1,424,741,156,735
% of Revenue 88% 88%
5. Gross profit 182,744,905,966 189,807,791,166
6. Financial income 8,331,971,297 22,394,967,435
7. Financial expense 25,896,787,122 49,991,756,319
- In which, interest expense 17,187,219,661 24,065,811,358
- Other expense 8,709,567,461 25,925,944,961
8. Selling expense 78,937,784,265 75,230,050,612
S/Revenue 5.06% 4.66%
9. General and administrative expense 35,977,045,351 41,608,410,264
G&A/Revenue 2.31% 2.58%
10. Operating profit / (loss) 50,265,260,525 48,754,415,156
11. Other income 6,176,730,992 1,864,669,013
12. Other expenses 5,524,254,412 4,161,615
13. Profit from other activities 652,476,580 1,860,507,398
14. Profit/loss from joint venture and associate compan 6,282,567,272 3,381,873,750
15. Profit before taxes 57,200,304,377 50,614,922,554
16. Current corporate income tax expense 9,175,466,515 10,029,634,651
Tax rate 16.04% 19.82%
17. Deferred corporate tax (income)/expense 243,962,755 36,474,306
18. Net profit after tax 47,780,875,107 40,548,813,597
19. Earnings per share 744 631
Book value per share 19,619 16,555
Price per share 6,899 7,428
D&A 64,200,062,759 83,358,285,094
EBITDA 138,587,586,797 158,039,019,006
Number of shares outstanding 64,263,000 64,263,000
Dividend
EBIT
2016 2017 2018
2,145,496,749,447 4,076,763,652,003 8,018,827,145,835
1,726,940,597 7,155,348,862 7,254,532,446
2,143,769,808,850 4,069,608,303,141 8,011,572,613,389
32.78% 89.83% 96.86%
1,836,734,397,150 3,519,223,197,973 7,338,636,540,198
86% 86% 92%
307,035,411,700 550,385,105,168 672,936,073,191
30,198,848,862 55,755,260,107 61,517,601,742
53,927,481,929 95,052,847,758 208,587,237,486
27,284,472,139 80,592,049,351 125,980,474,352
26,643,009,790 14,460,798,407 82,606,763,134
56,882,135,462 105,724,321,494 156,562,809,984
2.65% 2.60% 1.95%
62,622,750,100 79,322,555,685 123,618,312,196
2.92% 1.95% 1.54%
165,553,232,870 326,060,640,338 245,685,315,267
8,081,453,308 2,388,598,927 11,209,698,006
7,037,904,139 394,931,990 2,910,690,089
1,043,549,169 1,993,666,937 8,299,007,917
1,751,339,799 - -
166,596,782,039 328,054,307,275 253,984,323,184
23,692,445,025 64,433,475,421 42,772,027,927
14.22% 19.64% 16.84%
20,680,603 256,725,898 936,618,304
142,925,017,617 263,364,105,956 212,148,913,561
1,933 2,427 1,239
16,760 19,437 17,408
15,528 24,125 14,700
92,958,744,347 168,028,491,091 244,951,380,881
286,839,998,525 576,674,847,717 624,916,178,417
73,955,000 108,533,000 171,200,000
136,131,874,500
Forecasting assumption Ratio Formula 2019F
Refer to F-Revenue 8,493,873,271,458
Constant at rate 0.09% Deduction / Gross revenue 0.09% 7,684,300,723.71
8,486,188,970,735
6%
7,555,940,257,014
2-year average at 89% COGS/Revenue 89% 89%
930,248,713,720
Constant 61,517,601,742
Financial exp = Interest exp + Other exp 326,665,919,358
245,315,852,445
5 year average at 0.96% Other expense/Revenue 0.96% 81,350,066,913
193,150,218,541
2-year average at 2.25% Selling expense/Revenue 2.28% 2.28%
148,174,866,254
2-year average at 1.75% G&A expense/Revenue 1.75% 1.75%
527,406,027,184
Constant 11,209,698,006
Constant 2,910,690,089
Constant 8,299,007,917
Constant 0 0
504,986,631,172
100,997,326,234
Tax rate at 20% 20% 20.00%
Constant 936,618,304
404,925,923,242
2,365.22
Shares outstanding 171,200,000
Constant Dividend 136,131,874,500 136,131,874,500
750,302,483,617
2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
12,406,673,271,458 15,947,848,271,458 19,489,023,271,458 23,832,098,271,458
11,224,161,857.82 14,427,818,510.75 17,631,475,163.68 21,560,600,699.11
12,395,449,109,601 15,933,420,452,948 19,471,391,796,295 23,810,537,670,759
46% 29% 22% 22%
11,036,670,672,076 14,186,812,649,063 17,336,954,626,051 21,200,447,073,248
89% 89% 89% 89%
1,358,778,437,525 1,746,607,803,884 2,134,437,170,244 2,610,090,597,511
61,517,601,742 61,517,601,742 61,517,601,742 61,517,601,742
518,515,674,153 686,175,246,055 883,532,291,587 1,124,992,008,219
399,690,767,241 533,434,737,391 696,876,181,172 896,740,099,213
118,824,906,912 152,740,508,663 186,656,110,415 228,251,909,006
282,127,078,797 362,653,206,664 443,179,334,531 541,940,625,002
2.28% 2.28% 2.28% 2.28%
216,433,315,391 278,208,799,347 339,984,283,303 415,748,841,672
1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
798,700,441,595 1,044,228,196,132 1,289,755,950,669 1,590,883,529,095
11,209,698,006 11,209,698,006 11,209,698,006 11,209,698,006
2,910,690,089 2,910,690,089 2,910,690,089 2,910,690,089
8,299,007,917 8,299,007,917 8,299,007,917 8,299,007,917
0 0 0 0
776,281,045,583 1,021,808,800,120 1,267,336,554,657 1,568,464,133,083
155,256,209,117 204,361,760,024 253,467,310,931 313,692,826,617
20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
936,618,304 936,618,304 936,618,304 936,618,304
621,961,454,770 818,383,658,400 1,014,805,862,029 1,255,707,924,771
3,632.95 4,780.28 5,927.60 7,334.74
5,448,176,764,599 6,610,425,946,231
1,867,755,789,394 2,133,582,045,429
1,000,000,000,000 1,200,000,000,000
38.71% 20.00%
1,575,176,330,579 1,876,448,078,521
Sale/Average AR 12.98 653,998,171,971 955,269,919,913
531,565,397,491 531,565,397,491
293,698,169,669 293,698,169,669
95,914,591,448 95,914,591,448
COGS/Average Inventories 8.81 857,790,846,982 1,252,942,024,637
147,453,797,644 147,453,797,644
3,813,501,999,277 5,514,056,208,169
21,384,352,467 21,384,352,467
21,384,352,467 21,384,352,467
Referred to F-FA 2,472,512,189,762 5,343,066,398,654
2,336,636,865,442 5,133,661,506,134
3,270,532,800,865 6,365,243,448,559
(933,895,935,422) (1,231,581,942,425)
135,875,324,320 209,404,892,520
147,730,855,261 224,245,274,105
(11,855,530,942) (14,840,381,585)
1,208,008,703,897 38,008,703,897
1,208,008,703,897 38,008,703,897
48,380,000,000 48,380,000,000
48,380,000,000 48,380,000,000
63,216,753,151 63,216,753,151
62,507,261,342 62,507,261,342
709,491,809 709,491,809
9,261,678,763,876 12,124,482,154,401
6,012,734,567,444 8,389,708,377,698
4,490,759,891,305 6,606,039,392,800
COGS/Average AP 10.70 706,237,300,722 1,031,573,601,600
Sale/Average ST advances from customers 274.59 30,905,323,926 45,142,215,341
14,084,998,080 14,084,998,080
19,601,493,769 19,601,493,769
SG&A/Average accrued expense 32.59 10,472,793,351 15,297,205,549
453,141,818 453,141,818
3,292,201,538 3,292,201,538
Referred to F-Loan 3,705,088,228,883 5,475,970,125,887
624,409,218 624,409,218
1,521,974,676,139 1,783,668,984,897
Referred to F-Loan 1,521,965,397,974 1,783,659,706,732
9,278,165 9,278,165
0
3,248,944,196,433 3,734,773,776,703
3,248,944,196,433 3,734,773,776,703
1,711,999,760,000 1,711,999,760,000
1,711,999,760,000 1,711,999,760,000
532,112,689,329 532,112,689,329
(39,715,243) (39,715,243)
57,775,383,144 57,775,383,144
13,177,404,323 13,177,404,323
Ending RE = Beginning RE + NI - Dividend 534,654,183,406 1,020,483,763,676
399,264,491,474 399,264,491,474
9,261,678,763,876 12,124,482,154,401
2021F 2022F 2023F
0
1,391,843,044,234 2,032,576,205,762 2,612,724,315,409 3,192,872,425,056
504,986,631,172
225,550,926,914
0
245,315,852,445
975,853,410,531
37,608,784,797
4,958,383,452
71,974,949,498
0
(279,093,539,726)
-245,315,852,445
100,997,326,234
0
0
666,983,462,341
(499,255,650,941)
(499,255,650,941)
1,391,843,044,234
(136,131,874,500)
1255711169733.96
1423438981134.21
645,474,843,425
2068913824559.21
2034499038090
-34414786469.2144
2023
1,568,464,133,083
709,925,289,009
896,740,099,213
3,175,129,521,305
(334,401,399,686)
(438,604,375,612)
382,269,634,565
-200,000,000,000
-896,740,099,213
-313,692,826,617
936,618,304
1,374,897,073,047
(1,541,565,935,567)
(1,541,565,935,567)
3,904,395,225,060
(136,131,874,500)
3768263350559.78
3,601,594,488,039
6,589,739,774,505
10,191,334,262,544
10,191,334,262,544
TWO-STAGE FCFF VALUATION MODEL
Free Cash Flow To Firm 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F
1 2 3 4
EBIT*(1-Tax rate) 601,178,605,197 941,714,068,563 1,245,131,448,313 1,572,306,806,967
Depreciation 225,550,926,914 354,531,886,250 505,703,258,771 602,301,027,238
Changes in WC 115,378,735,051 (351,088,702,801) (317,654,484,350) (317,654,484,350)
Less CAPEX (499,255,650,941) (2,055,086,095,143) (1,184,437,587,808) (1,796,749,275,710)
AVERAGE PE
Company name Stock code Market capitalization NI P/E
Công ty cổ phần bao bì Nhựa Tân Tiến TTP 315,707,518,350 47,219,029,679 6.686
Công ty cổ phần nhựa bao bì Vinh VBC 132,396,793,880 27,877,520,419 4.749
Công ty cổ phần Rạng Đông Holdings RDP 357,723,822,618 12,095,737,771 29.574
Công ty cổ phần bao bì nhựa Sài Gòn SPP 97,942,880,000 12,439,554,212 7.874
Công ty cổ phần nhựa Tân Đại Hưng TPC 203,458,833,096 30,143,231,298 6.750
Công ty cổ phần nhựa An Phát Xanh AAA 2,516,640,000,000 212,148,913,561 11.863
Average PE 11.249
RELATIVE VALUATION
Net income 212,148,913,561
Number of shares outstanding 171,200,000
Earning per share (EPS) 1239
Average PE of the industry 11.249
Price 13,940
VALUATION PRICE TARGET
Expected price Percentage
FCFF valuation model 23,650 70%
Relative valuation 13,940 30%
Expected price 20,737 100%
Current price 14,700
Upside 41.07%
2023F
5 Debt 3,835,210,582,623 No. of shares 171,200,000
1,973,100,004,141 Equity 2,516,640,000,000 Current price 14,700
709,925,289,009
(389,799,522,429)
(1,541,565,935,567) Equity/(Debt + equity) 0.396205793
Debt/(Debt+equity) 0.603794207
751,659,835,154
516,113,701,855
D/E 1.52394088253505
Beta 0.818001
Risk free rate 5.80% T12/2018
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.01347395 -0.66216488 0.51048813 -0.035893 0.01804906 -0.035893 0.01804906
0.26794737 3.05284222 3.42E-03 0.28164611 1.35435597 0.28164611 1.35435597