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INTRODUCTION TO MODELING
Interpretation
Reasonable?
yes – continue
no – go back to model
Introduction to Modeling - Introduction 3
MODELING CHANGE
Recall that the change can be modeled using the formula
1. If the change occurs over discrete time periods (we know exactly what
comes next), then we get difference equations and we will actually be
observing the change.
2. If the change occurs continuously, then typically we will be observing the
rate of change and we will get a differential equation.
Introduction to Modeling - Modeling Change 4
FIRST DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS
DEFINITION
For a sequence of numbers 𝐴 = 𝑎0 , 𝑎1 , 𝑎2 , … the first differences are
∆𝑎0 = 𝑎1 − 𝑎0
∆𝑎1 = 𝑎2 − 𝑎1
⋮
∆𝑎𝑛 = 𝑎𝑛+1 − 𝑎𝑛
1. 1, 3, 7, 15, 31, …
2. 1, 2, 5, 11, 23, …
∆𝑎𝑛 = 𝑎𝑛+1 − 𝑎𝑛
𝑎𝑛+1 = 𝑎𝑛 + ∆𝑎𝑛
DEFINITION
Two variables 𝑦 and 𝑥 are proportional (to each other) if one is always
a constant multiple of the other. That is, if
𝑦 = 𝑘𝑥
250
200
Biomass
150
100
50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time in hours
We see that our model is not a great fit for the data. This may be due to the
limited amount of original data
Introduction to Modeling - Approximation of Change 11
ISSUES WITH CONSTANT GROWTH RATE
If we assume the change grows proportionally with the current
population size,
∆𝑎𝑛 = 𝑘𝑎𝑛
then 𝑎𝑛+1 would grow without bound.
𝑘 = 𝑟 𝑀 − 𝑎𝑛 → ∆𝑎𝑛 = 𝑟 𝑀 − 𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑛
Introduction to Modeling - Approximation of Change 12
EXERCISE 4 – CARRYING CAPACITY
The following data was Time in Observed yeast Time in Observed yeast
collected from an hours 𝒏 biomass 𝒑𝒏 hours 𝒏 biomass 𝒑𝒏
experiment measuring the
0 9.6 10 513.3
growth of a yeast culture.
1 18.3 11 559.7
2 29.0 12 594.8
600
500
Biomass
400
300
200
100
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Time in hours
With the addition of the limiting value, we see that our model is a better fit to
the original data Introduction to Modeling - Approximation of Change 14
SOLUTIONS TO DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
When we develop a mathematical model, we would like to be able to
find the solution; we would like an easy way to express
𝑎𝑛+1 .
1. Observe a pattern.
2. Conjecture a form of the solution to the dynamical system.
3. Test the conjecture by substitution.
4. Accept or reject the conjecture depending on whether it does or
does not satisfy the system after the substitution and algebraic
manipulation.
THEOREM
The solution of the linear dynamical system 𝑎𝑛+1 = 𝑟𝑎𝑛 for 𝑟 any
nonzero constant is
𝑎𝑘 = 𝑟 𝑘 𝑎0
1. 𝑎𝑛+1 = 5𝑎𝑛 , 𝑎0 = 10
3𝑎𝑛
2. 𝑎𝑛+1 = , 𝑎0 = 64
4
𝑎𝑛+1 = 𝑓 𝑎𝑛
THEOREM
The equilibrium value for the dynamical system
𝑎𝑛+1 = 𝑟𝑎𝑛 + 𝑏, 𝑟≠1
is
𝑏
𝑎=
1−𝑟
If 𝑟 = 1 and 𝑏 = 0, every number is an equilibrium value. If 𝑟 = 1 and
𝑏 ≠ 0, no equilibrium value exists.
1. Remain close
2. Approach the equilibrium value
3. Not remain close.
After the 5th iteration, the owl population begins to grow but so does the
mice population.
At the 11th iteration, we see that the mice population has grown large
enough to allow the owl population to make large growth jumps which
allows the owls to take over.
Since the owls no longer have a food source, they begin to die off.
∆𝐴𝑛 = 𝐴𝑛 𝑘1 − 𝑘3 𝐵𝑛
∆𝐵𝑛 = 𝐵𝑛 𝑘2 − 𝑘4 𝐴𝑛
𝐴𝑛+1 = 1 + 𝑘1 𝐴𝑛 − 𝑘3 𝐵𝑛 𝐴𝑛
𝐵𝑛+1 = 1 + 𝑘2 𝐵𝑛 − 𝑘4 𝐴𝑛 𝐵𝑛
∆𝐴𝑛 = 0 = 𝐴𝑛 𝑘1 − 𝑘3 𝐵𝑛
∆𝐵𝑛 = 0 = 𝐵𝑛 𝑘2 − 𝑘4 𝐴𝑛
𝑘2 𝑘1
𝐴, 𝐵 = (0,0) and 𝐴, 𝐵 = ,
𝑘4 𝑘3
∆𝐴𝑛 = 𝐴𝑛 𝑘1 + 𝑘3 𝐵𝑛
∆𝐵𝑛 = 𝐵𝑛 𝑘2 + 𝑘4 𝐴𝑛
EXAMPLE:
In our previous examples, what happened then we saw too many mice
in our system?
Introduction to Modeling - Modeling Process 36
REAL-WORLD VS MATH WORLD
Observation
Real-World System Mathematical Model
Simplification
Trials/Experiments Analysis
Real-World Mathematical
Conclusions Conclusions
Interpretation
There are many situations in which we would not want to follow such a
course of action (even with the risk of loss of fidelity).
May not even be possible to produce a trial, not just for moral reasons.
NOTE:
This is like the scientific method for testing hypothesis and we do try to
be as scientific as possible, but we must remember that this is a
creative/artistic/intuitive part of modelling and that for the most part,
our models can never duplicate reality exactly.