Energy System Models

CHAPTER3
Analytical Approach for Energy
System Models

ZHANG Qi, PhD, Professor

Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy
China University of Petroleum at Beijing

© ACES, CUPB, All Rights Reserved, 2014

 Syllabus
 Chapter 1: Introduction of Energy System (4 hours)

 Chapter 2: Energy System Modeling and Analytical Approach (4 hours)

• Chapter 3: Energy System Model Programming (2 hours)

 Chapter 4: Energy System Analysis Models (6 hours)

 Energy Demand Estimation, Energy Supply Expansion Planning

 Supply-Demand Balance: TIMS, GCAM

 Project Presentation and Discussion (4 hours)

 Chapter 5: Energy Economics Models(8 hours)

 Energy-Environment-Economics: Oil, Gas, electricity,

 Energy Finance: Renewable, Oil, Gas,

 Project Presentation and Discussion (4 hours)

 In this chapter, you will learn

 Econometrics Model
 Simulation Method
 Optimization Method
 Linear programming
 Nonlinear programming
 Mixed Integer Programming
 GA, PSO

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 System, Model and Events

 A model is a representation of an actual system. Immediately, there

is a concern about the limits or boundaries of the model that

supposedly represent the system.

 The model should be complex enough to answer the questions

raised.

 Consider an event as an occurrence that changes the state of the

system.

 There are both internal and external events, also called endogenous

and exogenous events, respectively.

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System Study Methods

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 Simulation Study

Anu Maria, INTRODUCTION TO MODELING AND SIMULATION, 1997

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 Simulation Model

 Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world

process or system over time.

 Simulation is an indispensable problem-solving

methodology for the solution of many real-world problems.

 Simulation is used to describe and analyze the behavior of

a system, ask .what if. questions about the real system,
and aid in the design of real systems. Both existing and
conceptual systems can be modeled with simulation.

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 Classes of Simulations
 Continuous vs. Discrete
– Continuous: flow through a system is continuous, like fluid flow
– Discrete: flow is treated as a certain number of discrete integers, such as
number of people

 Deterministic vs. Stochastic

– Deterministic: input parameters are known and precisely specified
– Stochastic: input parameters are uncertain. They may be determined
randomly or using a probability distribution, for instance.

 Steady State vs. Transient (Dynamic)

Most of our problems will be continuous, deterministic, and steady state

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 Classification of Simulation Models

Static system
• Represents the system at a particular point in time

Dynamic Systems
• Represents the system behavior over time
• Continuous Simulation
• Discrete Event Simulation: System quantities (state
variables) change with events

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 Definition of System

 A set of interacting components or entities operating together to achieve a

common goal or objective. Examples: A manufacturing system with its
machine canters, inventories, conveyor belts, production schedule, items
produced.

 Why and How to Study a System

• Measure/estimate performance
• Improve operation
• Prepare for failures

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 Problem Formulation

• A statement of the problem:

• 1- the problem is clearly understood by the
simulation analyst
• 2- the formulation is clearly understood by the
client

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 Solution of the simulation problem

 When we have formulated our problem we use our

theoretical skills to develop a solvable mathematical
model.

 In almost any case his turns out to be a number

simultaneously coherent mathematical expressions we
need to solve.

 Subsequently, we need to be able to interpret and

validate the result critically against empirical knowledge
or experiments

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AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)
Snapshot Tool (ESS)

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 AIM/Snapshot Model

• Excel format
• Based on EBT (Energy Balance Table)
• Step by step approach
• The tool can be used for developing and
designing preliminary LCS/SD visions
 What if analysis
 Check the consistency among the sectors
 Analyze the impacts of countermeasures package
 Communication among stakeholders
Source: AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS), Tokyo, Japan, 2007 14
Energy Flow for ESS

Source: AIM/Energy Snapshot Tool (ESS), Tokyo, Japan, 2007 15

Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Calculation Process

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Energy Demand Scenarios

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Simulation Example-A home with PV and
Grid Connection

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Energy Procedia 50 ( 2014 ) 202 – 213
 Summary

• Classification of Simulation Models

• Purpose of Simulation Models

• Simulation model example for energy demand

estimation

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