Ministry of Water Resources, Irrigation &

Electricity

Introduction to Modelling
Dam Implementation Unit (DIU)
Hydrology:
• Hydrology is the study of the movement, distribution, and quality
of water on Earth. It encompasses both the hydrologic cycle and
water resources. The discipline of hydrology includes the fields of
hydrometeorology, surface hydrology, hydrogeology, drainage
basin management, and water quality. Hydrologists can be found
working in earth or environmental science, physical geography,
geology, or civil and environmental engineering. They may be
engaged in activities such as hydraulic modeling, flood mapping,
catchment flood management plans, shoreline management plans,
estuarine strategies, coastal protection, and flood alleviation.
• Recent research in hydrologic modelling has taken a more global
approach to the understanding of the behavior of hydrologic
systems in an attempt to make better predictions and to address the
major challenges in water resources management.
Hydrology Cycle:
Hydrological Models:
• A Model is a representation and abstraction of anything such as a
real system, a proposed system, a futuristic system design, an
entity, a phenomenon, or an idea.

• Hydrologic models are a simplification of a real system of surface

water, soil water, wetland, groundwater, estuary that aids in
understanding, predicting, and managing water resources. Both the
flow and quality of water are commonly studied using hydrologic
models.
Why do we need models?
• In general, we develop and apply hydrological models for two
main reasons: process understanding and scenario analysis but
there is some other reasons of needing hydrological models:
• To analyze, understand, and explore solutions for sustainable
water management
•  To support decision makers and operational water managers.
• To allows us to increase our knowledge about hydrological
processes.
• To provide sustainable solutions for integrated water resources
management.
Models Classifications:

Scale
Physical
Analog
Hydrological
Models
Deterministic
Abstract
Stochastic
Physical Models:
• scale models:
 Are most generally a physical representation of an object, which
maintains accurate relationships between all important aspects of the
model, although absolute values of the original properties need not
be preserved. This enables it to demonstrate some behavior or
property of the original object without examining the original object
itself.
• Analogical models: 
Are a method of representing a phenomenon of the system (often
called the "target system“) by another, more understandable or
analyzable system. They are also called dynamical analogies.
Physical Models:
Abstract Models (Mathematical):

• Stochastic Models: These models are black box systems,

based on data and using mathematical and statistical
concepts to link a certain input (for instance rainfall) to
the model output (for instance runoff). Commonly used
techniques are regression, transfer functions, neural
networks and system identification. These models are
known as stochastic hydrology models.
Process-Based Models (Deterministic ):
• These models try to represent the physical processes observed
in the real world. Typically, such models contain
representations of surface runoff, subsurface flow,
evapotranspiration, and channel flow, but they can be far more
complicated. These models are known as deterministic
hydrology models. Deterministic hydrology models can be
subdivided into single-event models and continuous simulation
models.
Steps of a Simulation & Modelling:
• Problem Formulation:
Before starting the study, a statement of the problem must be made.
It is provided first by those who have the problem. The analyst must
ensure that the problem described is clearly understood by both him
and those who have introduced the problem. Although not shown in
Figure 16, the problem can be reformulated in the study.

• Setting of Objectives and Project Plan:

The objectives indicate the questions that must be answered. At this
stage, the Model can be envisaged as the methodology to solve the
problem. A project plan is established, including the number of
Object requested for the study, the length of each phase of the
work…
Steps of a Simulation & Modelling:
• Knowledge Model Definition
At this phase, a knowledge model is built. It must consider the
objectives previously stated. The model is usually built
progressively, including more and more details. However, the model
complexity must not exceed that required for the purpose of the
problem. At this stage, the problem is better understood, which can
conduct to the reformulation of the problem or to the redefinition of
the objectives and the project plan.
• Data Collection
this stage is strongly related to the building of the knowledge model.
As the complexity of the knowledge model changes, the nature of
the data to collect in the real system may also change. Moreover, the
collection of data is a process that usually takes a lot of time so the
sooner it starts, the better.
Steps of a Simulation & Modelling:
• Simulation Model Definition:

When the knowledge model is built and the data collected, or at least the exact
nature of the information completely identified, the writing of the simulation
model can begin. At this step, simulation software must be chosen, if the
resolution of the model requests a computer.
• Verification:

This step consists in verifying that the computer program performs properly. In

other words, is the computer program the exact translation of the knowledge

model ? Usually, with complex systems, it is difficult, if not impossible, to

translate a model successfully without a good deal with debugging.

Steps of a Simulation & Modelling:
• Validation
The problem here is to be sure that the model is an accurate
representation of the real system. Validation is usually performs
through the calibration of the model. It consists in an iterative
process of comparing the model with the system and adjusting
parameters.

Experimental Design
Different scenarios, "experiments", will be simulated. For each one,
the model is prepared by defining the "input" data of the model, the
parameters of the model and different other parameters specific to
the simulation like the length of the simulation, the number of
"replications“…
Steps of a Simulation & Modelling:
• Production Runs and Analysis
Then, for each experiment, the simulation model is executed.
Observations are made and data is collected, the "output" data. Then
an analysis of them is performed. At this step, new experiments or
other replications can be decided.
• Reporting
At this step, different kinds of document are provided concerning
the progress of the study, the simulation program and the results of
the simulations. Usually, the reporting concerning the progress of
the study is periodic and does not occur just at the end of the study.
All these documents are important for a further use of the models as
well as for further studies. This allows modifying the simulation
model more easily and offers references for the next studies.
 Problem Formulation

Objectives and Project

Plan

Knowledge Model
Definition Data Collection

Simulation Model
Definition

Verification

Validation

Experimental Design

Production Runs and

Analysis

Reporting
Thank You