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MODELING

Process of producing a model

Model is the representation of construction and

working of a system of interest

Model will be similar but simpler than the

system

A good model is a judicious trade off between

realism and simplicity

Modeling process

Phase i:

step 1- data collection

step 2- model input preparation

step 3 - parameter evaluation

Phase ii:

step 4 - calibration

step 5- validation

step 6 - post audit

Phase iii:

step 7 - analysis of alternatives

Code verified?

Define Purpose

Field data Conceptual Model

Mathematical Model

Analytical

Solutions

Numerical formulation

Computer program

no

CODE SELECTION

yes

Model design Field data

calibration

Comparison with

field data

verification

prediction

Presentation of results

Postaudit Field data

Types of models

4 types of models in modeling

1. mathematical models

2. conceptual models

3. physical models

4. computational models

5. graphical model.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS

• these are simplified representations of some

real world entity

• These can be in equations or computer code

• These are intended to mimic essential features

while leaving out inessentials

• Assumptions in mathematical modeling

1. variables ( the things which change)

2. parameters (the things which do not change)

3. functional forms(the relationship between

two)

MATHEMATICAL MODEL

• Use symbolic notation and mathematical

equations to represent a system. Attributes

are represented by variables and the

activities represented by mathematical

functions that interrelate the variables

• simulates ground-water flow and/or solute fate

and transport indirectly by means of a set of

governing equations thought to represent the

physical processes that occur in the system.

Components of a Mathematical Model

• Governing Equation

(Darcy’s law + water balance equation) with

head (h) as the dependent variable

• Boundary Conditions

• Initial conditions (for transient problems)

Darcy’s Law

If the soil did not have uniform properties, then we

would have to use the continuous form of the derivative:

Q(x)= -K(x) * A* dH / dx

Head is defined as the elevation to which ground water

will rise in a cased well. Mathematically, head (h) is

expressed by the following equation:

where

z = elevation head and

P/pg = pressure head (water table = 0).

Types of Boundary Conditions

Specified Head Boundaries

Specified Flux Boundaries

Head Dependant Flux Boundaries

Specified Head Boundaries

Boundaries along which the heads have been measured and

can be specified in the model

e.g., surface water bodies

They must be in good hydraulic connection with the aquifer

Must influence heads throughout layer being modeled

Large streams and lakes in unconfined aquifers with highly

permeable beds

Uniform Head Boundaries: Head is uniform in space, e.g., Lakes

Spatially Varying Head Boundaries:

e.g., River heads can be picked of of a topo map if:

Hydraulic connection with and unconfined aquifer

the streambed materials are more permeable than the aquifer

materials

Specified Flux Boundaries:

Boundaries along which, or cells within which,

inflows or outflows are set

Recharge due to infiltration (R)

Pumping wells (Q

p

)

Induced infiltration

Underflow

No flow boundaries

Valley wall of low permeable sediment or

rock

Fault

Need of mathematical modeling

1. Scientific understanding

2. Clarification

3. Manage the world using scientific

understanding

4. Simulated experimentation

5. The curse of dimensionality

Scientific understanding

• A model embodies a hypothesis about the study system,

and lets you compare that hypothesis with data.

• A model is often most useful when it fails to fit the

data, because that says that some of your ideas about

the study system are wrong.

• Mathematical models and computer simulations are

useful experimental tools for building and testing

theories, assessing quantitative conjectures, answering

specific questions, determining sensitivities to changes

in parameter values and estimating key parameters

from data.

CLARIFICATION

• The model formulation process clarifies

assumptions, variables, and parameters

• The process of formulating an ecological

model is extremely helpful for organizing one’s

thinking, bringing hidden assumptions to light

and identifying data needs

Manage the real world using scientific

understanding

• Forecasting disease or pest outbreaks

• Designing man-made systems, for example,

biological pest control, bioengineering

• Managing existing systems such as agriculture or

fisheries

• Optimizing medical treatments

Simulated experimentation

Realistic experimenting may be impossible

• Experiments with infectious disease spread in

human populations are often impossible, unethical

or expensive.

• We can not manage endangered species by trial

and error.

• We dare not set dosage for clinical trials of new

drugs on humans or set safe limits for exposure to

toxic substances without proper knowledge of the

consequences.

The curse of dimensionality

• Sometimes a purely experimental approach is

not feasible because the data requirements for

estimating a model grow rapidly in the number

of variables.

• Modelling using computer programs is cheap

Types of mathematical model

• Deterministic vs. Stochastic models

• Static vs. Dynamic Models

• Continuous vs. Discrete Models

• Individual vs. Structured Models

• Mechanistic vs. Statistical Models

• Qualitative vs. Quantitative Models

Conceptual Model

• Qualitative description of the system

A descriptive representation of a groundwater system that

incorporates an interpretation of the geological & hydrological

conditions.

Graphical Model

• FLOW NETS

– limited to steady state, homogeneous systems,

with simple boundary conditions

PHYSICAL MODEL

System representation by “physical means” “Electrical,

mechanical, hydraulic” or other physical representation of

the system”.

For example , in a physical model of a system , if the

system attributes can be represented by such

measurements as a voltage, then the rate at which the

shaft of a direct current motor turns depends upon the

voltage applied to the motor.

• SAND TANK

– which poses scaling problems, for example the grains

of a scaled down sand tank model are on the order of

the size of a house in the system being simulated

SAND MODEL

• Calibration of model : Test of the model with

known input and output information that is used

to adjust or estimate factors for which data are

not available.

• Verification of the model: examination of the

numerical technique in the computer code to

ascertain that in truly represents the conceptual

model and that there are no inherent numerical

problems with obtaining a solution

• Validation: comparison of model results with

numerical data independently derived from

experiments or observations of the environment.

COMPUTATIONAL MODELLING

• Computational modelling is the use of mathematics,

physics and computer science to study the behaviour

of complex systems by computer simulation. A

computational model contains numerous variables that

characterize the system being studied. Simulation is

done by adjusting these variables and observing how

the changes affect the outcomes predicted by the

model. The results of model simulations help

researchers make predictions about what will happen

in the real system that is being studied in response to

changing conditions.

SIMULATION

• Operation of a model of the system

• It is a tool to evaluate the performance of a

system, existing or proposed, under different

configurations of interest and over long periods

of real time.

SIMULATION IS USED……

1.For built a new system or to alter an existing

system

2. To reduce the chances of failure to meet

specifications

3. To eliminate unforeseen bottlenecks

4. To prevent under or over-utilization of

resources

5. Optimize system performance

SIMULATION STUDY

Steps involved in developing a simulation model

Identify the problem

Formulate the problem

Collect and process real system data

Formulate and develop model

Validate the model

Document model for future use

Select appropriate experimental design

Establish experimental conditions for runs

Perform simulation runs

Interpret and present results

Recommend further course of action

Identify the problem : find out the problems with an existing

system. Produce requirements for a proposed system

Formulate the problem: objective of the study or issues

involved in the system

Collect and process real system data: collect the data on

system like input variables, performance of the system etc.

identify the stochastic input variables.

Formulate and develop a model: develop schematics and

network diagrams of the system. Translate these

conceptual models to simulation software acceptable

form.

Validate the model: compare the performance of the model

under known conditions with the performance of the real

system.

Document objectives, assumptions and input variables of

model in detail for future use.

Select appropriate experimental design: maximum

performance with minimum number of inputs

Establish experimental conditions for runs: run each

model and find out the best performance from the

run

Advantages of simulation

It is useful for sensitivity analysis of complex systems.

It is suitable to analyze large and complex real life

problems that cannot be solved by the usual

quantitative methods.

It is the remaining tool when all other techniques

become intractable or fail.

It can be used as a pre-service test to try out new

policies and decision rules for operating a system.

Disadvantages of simulation

Sometimes simulation models are expensive and take a long

time to develop.

Each application of simulation is ad hoc to a great extent.

The simulation model does not produce answers by itself.

It is the trial and error approach that produces different

solutions in repeated runs .It does not generate optimal

solutions to the problems.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION

• In mathematical model all quantities are measured as

parameters, so this model is a parametric function.

• Inferring parameters from measurements is known as

estimation

• 2 types of estimation

1. Parametric estimation where the quantities to be

estimated are the unknown variables in equations

that express the observables

2. Condition estimation where conditions can be

formulated among the observations. Rarely used,

most common application is levelling where the sum

of the height differences around closed circuits must

be zero

Steps in parametric estimation

Observation equations: equations that relate the

parameters to be estimated to the observed

quantities

Stochastic model: Statistical description that

describes the random fluctuations in the

measurements

Inversion that determines the parameters values from

the mathematical model consistent with the statistical

model.

Sensitivity analysis

• Sensitivity analysis is the study of how

the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical

model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be

apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its

inputs.

A sensitivity analysis can be used to

• validate a model,

• warn of unrealistic model behavior,

• point out important assumptions,

• help formulate model structure,

• simplify a model,

• suggest new experiments,

• guide future data collection efforts,

• suggest accuracy for calculating parameters,

• adjust numerical values of parameters,

• choose an operating point,

• allocate resources,

• detect critical criteria,

• suggest manufacturing tolerances,

• identify cost drivers.

In a sensitivity analysis

change

• the values of

• inputs

• parameters

• architectural features

measure changes in

• outputs

• performance indices

Conceptual models

• type of diagram which shows of a set of relationshi

ps between factors that are

believed to impact or lead to a target condition; a d

iagram that defines theoretical

entities, objects, or conditions of a system and the

relationships between them

A complete conceptual model provides a:

• Definition of the phenomenon in terms of features

recognizable by observations, analysis or validated

simulations;

• Description of its life cycle in terms of appearance,

size, intensity and accompanying weather;

• Statement of the controlling physical processes which

enables the understanding of the factors that

determine the mode and rate of evolution of the

phenomenon;

• Specification of the key meteorological fields

demonstrating the main processes;

• Guidance for predicted meteorological conditions or

situations using the diagnostic and prognostic fields

that best discriminate between development or non-

development; guidance for predicting displacement

and evolution.

Advantageous of conceptual model

• When introducing a new topic in class regardless of

whether the ultimate goal is to develop the topic

qualitatively or quantitatively.

• When equations for some process being studied seem

to obscure student understanding it is a good idea to

step back a bit and discuss a conceptual model of the

processes. Actually, it is typically best to develop a

conceptual framework for understanding before

introducing equations.

• To help explain and discuss interesting features in data

sets.

- Chap 1-Intro & modelling.PPTUploaded bySham
- System Modelling and SimulationUploaded byArvind Kumar
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