Industrial Systems Engineering - International University – VNU-HCM

Introduction to Simulation
Book: Jerry Bank’s chapter 1

 
Dr. Pham Huynh Tram
phtram@hcmiu.edu.vn
Jan 2020
Discrete-Event System Simulation
1
 Course Learning Outcomes
Course Learning Outcomes
G1. Identify, formulate and solve
complex problems in manufacturing
and service systems by performing
discrete-event system simulation and
applying knowledge of statistics
G2. Use simulation as a tool in the
process of engineering design to
produce solutions that meet specified
needs with consideration of economic
factors.
G3. Conduct experimentation via 6. an ability to develop and conduct
simulation, analyze the data and draw appropriate experimentation, analyze
valid conclusion
(Program) Student Outcomes
1.an ability to identify, formulate, and
solve complex engineering problems
by applying principles of engineering,
science, and mathematics
2. an ability to apply engineering
design to produce solutions that meet
specified needs with consideration of
public health, safety, and welfare, as
well as global, cultural, social,
environmental, and economic factors
and interpret data, and use
engineering judgment to draw
conclusions
2
 Course Learning Outcomes
Course Learning Outcomes (Program) Student Outcomes

G4. Work effectively in group project 5. an ability to function effectively on a

team whose members together
provide leadership, create a
collaborative and inclusive
environment, establish goals, plan
tasks, and meet objectives

3
 Assessment scheme

Assessment Assessment form Percentage %

component
A1. Process A1.1 Class participation 5%
assessment A1.2 Homework 35%
A2. Midterm A2.1 Mid-term Exam 12%
assessment A2.2 Laboratory Exam 8%
A3.1 Full Semester
10%
Project
A3. Final assessment
A3.2 Final exam 20%
A3.3 Laboratory Exam 10%
 Today lesson

➢ What is simulation?
➢ Why is simulation?
➢ How to study a system via simulation?
What is Simulation?

A simulation: imitation of the operation of a real-world process 6

or system over time
An actual or envisioned to A useful simulation model of that
system
system
7
Areas of Application

– Manufacturing
– Construction engineering and project management.
– Military.
– Logistics, supply chain, and distribution.
– Transportation modes and traffic.
– Business process simulation.
– Healthcare.
– Computer and communication systems.

The Winter Simulation Conference: an excellent way to learn more 8

about the latest in simulation applications and theory.
(https://informs-sim.org)
Why is Simulation?

● Simulation can be used as:

– Analysis tool for current system performance
Eg. Perform bottleneck analysis; Understand how the system operates; Study
interactions of variables and their importance to system performance; Test
hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur

– Analysis tool to predict the effect of changes to existing

systems.
Eg. New policy, new hardware , Test “what if” questions.
9

– Design tool to predict performance of new systems.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation
● Advantages?
1. New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flows, organizational
procedures, and so on can be explored without disrupting ongoing operations of the real
system.
2. New hardware .designs, physical layouts, transportation systems, and so on can be
tested without
committing resources for their acquisition.
3. Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility.
4.· Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or slow-down of the
phenomena under
investigation.
5. Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
6. Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to the performance of the
system.
7. Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process,
information, materials, and so on are being delayed excessively.
8. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates rather than
how individuals think the system operates.
9.What if' questions can be answered. This is particularly useful in the design of new
systems.
10
Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation

● Disadvantages?
1. Model building requires special training. It is an art that is learned over time
and through experience. Furthermore, if two models are constructed by
different competent individuals, they might have similarities, but it is highly
unlikely that they will be the same.
2. Simulation results can be difficult to interpret Most simulation outputs are
essentially random variables (they are usually based on random inputs), so it
can be hard to distinguish whether an observation is a result of system
interrelationships or of randomness.
3. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.
Skimping on resources for modeling and analysis could result in a simulation
model or analysis that is not sufficient to the task.
4. Simulation is used in some'cases when an analytical solution is possible, or
even preferable, as was discussed in Section 1.2. This might be particularly tiue
in the simulation of some waiting lines where closed-form queueing models are
available. 11
When Not to Use Simulation?
● Simulation should not be used when:
– Problem can be solved by common sense.
– Problem can be solved analytically.
– If it is easier to perform direct experiments.
– If the costs exceed the savings.
– If the resources or time to perform simulation studies are not available.
– If no data, not even estimates, is available.
– If there is not enough time or personnel to verify/validate the model.
– If managers have unreasonable expectations: overestimate the power of
simulation.
– If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined.

12
How to study a system via simulation model?

13
Model of a System
● Studies of systems are often accomplished with a model of a
system.
● A model: a representation of a system for the purpose of
studying the system.
– A simplification of the system.
– Should be sufficiently detailed to permit valid conclusions to be drawn
about the real system.
– Should contain only the components that are relevant to the study.

14
Methods to study system
System

Experiment with Experiment with system

modeling
real system

Physical Model Mathematical Model

Analytical Solutions Simulation Solutions

– Analytical methods: deductive reasoning of mathematics to “solve” the model.

– Numerical methods: computational procedures to “solve” mathematical
models. 15
Types of Models
Simulation models:
– Static or dynamic.
– Deterministic or stochastic (ngẫu nhiên).
– Discrete or continuous. Ex Discrete: The bank is an example of a discrete system: The
state variable, the number of customers in the bank, changes only when a customer arrives
or when the service provided a customer is completed

Discrete Continuous
System System
state state variable(s)
variable(s) change
change only continuously over
at a discrete time.
set of points
in time.

Our focus: discrete, dynamic, and stochastic models 16

Steps in a Simulation Study
● Four phases:
– Problem formulation, and setting
objective and overall design
(step 1 to 2).
– Modeling building and data
collection (step 3 to 7)
– Running of the model
(step 8 to 10).
– Implementation (step 11 to 12).
● An iterative process.

17
17
Step 7: Validated? Check with the real system, check with the
real data, if model reflect the real system you want to formulated
=> If not, check again step 3 and 4.
Step 8: Design experiment: how many scenarios we want to try?
Get result, analyse, implement, suggestion or not
Step 9: bibibiiib

18
Example: Simulation Study
- a convenience store case -
 1. Problems & Objectives

● New convenience store appears nearby, need to increase

competitiveness.
● Want to see what we can improve via simulation: waiting time, time
in store..
● Want to make some changes & “predict” the results before
implementation
2. Model conceptualization
3. Data collection & Input modelling

Random
● Customer interarrival Variable &
time Probability
Distribution
● Customer choice
● Time customers
spending in the store
● Check out time
● Number of resources
● Quêu discipline
 4. Computerized model Example from ARENA

Buying

Checking
out

Eating
4. Computerized model (with animation)
5. Verification & Validation

- Does the computerized model well reflect the conceptual model? (mô
hình khái niệm)
- Does the computerized model well reflect the real store ?

5 = 6 ???

→ YES → Ready to use the simulation model!

6. Output analysis

Queue  Resource Maximum Comment

Lane 1 3
Number waiting Logic, seems to be
Lane 2 3 high vs. other
Waiting time Lane 1 2.4 convenience stores
(benchmark)
(minutes) Lane 2 2.2

Stay to eat or leave after checking out

Quantity % Comment
Look quite low!
Stay 123 32
Enable customers to stay and buy
Leave 154 68 more
7. Experimentation
❑ Checkout area

• Option 1: Add 1 more checkout lane

• Option 2: Adjust the working schedule

❑ Self-service area: Increase seating capacity

 Recap

★ What is simulation?
★ Why is simulation?
★ How to study a system via simulation?