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Beyond Coal Towards Net Zero
Beyond Coal Towards Net Zero
BEYOND COAL
TOWARDS
NET-ZERO H2
1 COAL PHASE-OUT IS KEY TO COAL PHASED OUT
EU/OECD COUNTRIES
2030
ACHIEVING THE PARIS AGREEMENT
2015
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets a clear goal to keep the global temperature rise to well below
2°C, pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. To meet this goal, carbon emissions must be reduced
to net-zero by 2050. COAL PHASED OUT
NON-OECD ASIA
2037
Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel used in power generation. Nearly a third of
global energy-related CO2 emissions come from the coal sector. 1 To limit warming to 1.5°C,
coal power should have peaked in 2020. Now, it is critical to completely phase out coal by
2030 in the EU/OECD, by 2037 in non-OECD Asia, and by 2040 in the rest of the world. 2
Climate change is not the only driver. Alternatives to coal, oil and gas are becoming cheaper.
Renewables are cleaner, improve air quality and help create new jobs. As a result, coal is no
longer considered a secure investment.
Countries urgently need to deliver plans for the global and local phase-out of coal, and to
facilitate a just transition. Oil and gas will have to follow coal in the coming decades, so using COAL PHASED OUT
them as transition fuels creates a high risk of stranded assets.
WORLDWIDE
António Guterres
Secretary-General of the United Nations
2040 H2
The decline in renewable and storage* prices is expected to continue. 4 Improved digitalisation Renewable energy costs
and energy efficiency are helping to address the intermittency of renewables and modernise declined rapidly (2010-2019) Fossil Fuel LCOE
the energy system. To ensure a just transition, countries should stay ahead of the curve and Fossil Fuel Operating Cost
manage the risks of stranded assets (e.g. coal power plants to the value of USD 600 bn risk
becoming stranded globally 5 ), fiscal instability, and job losses. 82% 47% 39% 29% Renewable LCOE
SOLAR CONCENTRATING ONSHORE OFFSHORE Renewable plus Battery LCOE
PHOTOVOLTAICS SOLAR POWER WIND WIND
*Dispatchable renewables =
*In gas-importing regions, like Europe, China and Japan, for example, the cheapest new- renewables + storage can supply
build peaking technology is battery storage. 6 demand on request.
Source: Own graph based on Carbon Tracker, 2019 and IRENA, 2020
Share of renewables (incl. large hydro) in power generation
in the G20 (2019)
In 2019, low-carbon power generation – including nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, biomass and
60% 107% 100%
% change 2014-2019
geothermal – matched global coal power for the first time. 7 Renewables alone accounted for
almost 27% of gross power generation in the G20 in 2019, compared to 22% in 2014 and 19%
in 2010. 8 This growth has primarily been driven by new wind and solar installations. 85%
77%
The share of renewables in power generation increased in 19 of the G20 countries in 2019 40% 60%
and is projected to increase in all 20 countries in 2020, contributing 28% of power generation
overall. This progression demonstrates the resilience, particularly in times of the Covid-19
45% 48%
crisis, and potential of the industry. It is a clear sign of climate policies and economic factors
37%
at work in G20 countries. 30%
20% 27% 20%
21% 23%
Policies to increase renewable electricity generation exist in 16 of the G20 members. Even 16% 19% 20%
14% 15%
in Australia, Canada, Mexico and the USA, which have no or very weak national policies, 8% 8%
3% 3% 3%
the share of renewables in electricity generation is increasing due to market forces and the -5%
commitment of citizens, regions and industry. Given the net-zero emissions announcements 0% -20%
and updated 2030 climate targets, higher renewable energy targets and stronger policies
G20
Non-
OECD
OECD
are likely to emerge.
ITA ARG CAN MEX IDN RUS BRA CHN EU G20 FRA IND AUS USA JPN GER TUR UK KOR ZAF SAU
N/A
N/A
United Kingdom
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Through retirement commitments and phase-out policies, 36% of the OECD’s total coal
South Arica
Argentina
Indonesia
Germany
Australia
capacity has been scheduled to close by 2030. 9 This shift has been supported by the Powering
Canada
Mexico
France
Turkey
Russia
Japan
China
Brazil
USA
India
Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), which comprises 34 countries, 35 sub-national governments and
Italy
EU
44 organisations.
In the G20, Canada, France, Italy and the UK have set 1.5°C compatible coal phase-out targets Source: Climate Transparency, 2020
(by 2030 or earlier), Germany follows with a phase-out date of 2038.* To reach the new EU
climate target (announced in 2020) all EU countries must phase out coal by 2030. 10 A number Low Medium High Front-runner
of coal-reliant countries without existing coal phase-out plans, including Japan, South Korea, No target or policy in Some policies in place Policies + coal Policies + coal phase-out date before 2030
place for reducing coal for reducing coal
South Africa, and China, recently made net-zero emissions by mid-century commitments. This phase-out decided (OECD and EU28) or 2040 (rest of the world)
has refocused national debates on how to manage the coal phase-out and a just transition.
In addition, over 130 financial institutions created or strengthened their policies to divest from,
ban, or restrict the financing of thermal coal power and, partly, mining. This includes top global
banks, some of the biggest global insurers, public development finance institutions, export Yoshihide Suga Moon Jae-in
Prime Minister, Japan President, South Korea
credit agencies and MDBs. 11 In addition, companies including General Electric, Mitsubishi,
Siemens, Samsung and Toshiba have announced that they will stop building new coal plants. Japan’s pledge to reduce emissions to “By replacing coal power generation with
net-zero by 2050 “will radically change renewable energy, we will create new
the policy for coal-fired power”. markets and industries and create jobs”.
*Many of these countries are replacing coal power with gas, calling into question the 1.5°C October 2020 October 2020
compatibility of their coal phase-out strategies.
Global planned and cancelled coal capacity, 2015-2020 (GW)
1,200 GW
243
400 GW 419
Coal power is becoming more difficult and expensive to finance – a trend that will continue 175
as carbon pricing takes effect alongside shifting economics, air pollution legislation and 131 98 114
200 GW
236 167
enforcement, and coal phase-out policies in key countries. As coal power moratoria are put 138 124 124
in place, upstream coal supply and trade disruptions can be expected.
223
130 116 86 82 93
0
The effect of these trends is already evident: Between 2015 and 2020, cancelled coal
capacity additions more than doubled while the project pipeline of additional capacity has 616
shrunk by almost 75%. 12 The slight increase in permitted capacity additions in 2020 is most 885
-500 GW
likely a consequence of government support to coal as part of Covid-19 responses, including 1066 1272
at least 40.8 GW on new coal approvals in China. 2015 1528 1580
Global coal power generation decreased by around 3% in 2019. This constituted the first -1,000 GW 2016
drop after three years of growth. 13 The decline was due to decreased demand from the
2017
power sector, with significant coal power decreases in the EU (26%) and the US (14%) due to
structural shifts in the power market, driven by economic factors and, in the case of the EU, 2018
-1,500 GW
policy. 14
CANCELLED 2019
2020
Due to the Covid-19 crises and reduced energy demand, global coal demand is expected to COAL CAPACITY
have fallen by about 7% in 2020. This would constitute the largest drop since World War II, -2,000 GW
with coal use declining in every region worldwide. 15 Announced Pre-Permit Permitted Cancelled (since 2010) Source: Global Coal Plant Tracker, 2020
Note: Data only includes information for the first half of 2020 based on the Global Coal Plant Tracker July 2020 update.
Share of coal in power generation (2019) and 5-year trend
(2014-2019) for top G20 countries
6 DESPITE CLIMATE AND FINANCIAL South Africa India China Indonesia Australia South Korea
RISKS, SOME G20 COUNTRIES 88% 71% 65% 63% 57% 42%
The G20 is responsible for 85% of global coal consumption. G20 countries are home to the
biggest coal fleets worldwide, and 40% of the power generated across the G20 still comes
from coal. 16 Current and planned coal capacity for top G20 countries
China accounts for half of global coal consumption and around 50% of global coal power 1,600 80 GW
capacity. 17 Despite overcapacity and low utilisation rates (load factor of 49% in 2019 18), China
continues to build more coal plants. In 2020, China eased restrictions for future domestic
coal plant construction and approved an additional 40.8 GW. 1,200 60 GW
India, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey as well as the EU countries,
Greece and Poland, are also currently constructing new plants. Turkey has the highest 800 40 GW
planned capacity worldwide in comparison to the country’s existing capacity. It is, however,
likely that planned capacity will not be built due to financial, economic and political trends.
400 20 GW
Building new coal power plants, even where they may replace less efficient plants, risks
locking countries into costly carbon-intensive futures with negative economic implications
0 0
and environmental externalities. China India USA EU Japan Russia Germany South South Indonesia Australia Turkey
Africa Korea
Operating capacity Capacity under constution Project pipeline: capacities announced, pre-permitted and permitted
7 6
7.2
6.4
TO DIRECT PUBLIC RESOURCES TO
USD Billion
5
5.3
4 4.7
COAL AT HOME AND ABROAD 3
G20 governments spent USD 12.63 bn on coal production on average annually between 1
1.2 1.5*
2017-2019. 19 This includes fiscal support, public finance, and state-owned enterprise (SOE) 0
investment in coal exploration, production (mining), processing and transportation, in addition 2014-2016 annual average 2017-2019 annual average
to coal power generation. The amount would be even higher if support for coal consumption
by industry, transport, households, and other consumers was included. Fiscal support Public finance SOE investment
FISCAL SUPPORT PUBLIC FINANCE SOE INVESTMENT
On average, annual G20 government support decreased slightly by USD 1.09 bn in 2017-
2019, compared to 2014-2016. Nevertheless, the reduction of public support to coal needs to Provision of budgetary Provision of grants, equity, loans, guarantees Investment of state-owned
be accelerated to meet national and global net-zero goals in line with the Paris Agreement. transfers (e.g. subsidies and insurance by bilateral public finance enterprises in coal and coal-
Continued funding is artificially extending the life of the coal industry, to the detriment of to coal production) and institutions controlled by governments, including fired power production
foregone revenue through export credit agencies, national development
climate and sustainable development goals.
tax breaks banks and development finance institutions
(excl. multilateral development banks) Objective: Providing
Objective: Setting price infrastructure, goods and
signals to influence Objective: Driving private investment services, often below
consumer behaviour by de-risking finance market value
Mixed Fossil
Export credit agencies (ECAs) in G20 countries provide public financial backing for risky Coal
projects overseas, to support their national industry.
9
Despite the 2015 OECD Agreement restricting ECA coal power finance,* several G20 countries
have continued to support coal projects. Between 2016 and 2018, G20 countries provided
at least USD 7.1 bn annually to coal projects** 20 through ECAs, an increase from USD 5.7 bn
USD Billions
between 2013 and 2015. By comparison, G20 ECA support for renewables between 2016
and 2018 was only USD 2.7 bn annually.
6
Japan, China, and South Korea account for the highest levels of G20 ECA coal support,
providing USD 3.6 bn, 2.3 bn, and 0.8 bn, respectively. A decrease in support is expected,
given that all three countries recently set mid-century net-zero emissions targets. Japan and
South Korea also announced restrictions for ECA coal finance in 2020. 21
A review of the OECD Agreement was due in 2020, and discussions are on-going. To reflect 3
the Paris Agreement, this review should 1) tighten restrictions to exclude investments for all
new coal power plants and modernisation of existing plants unless combined with a Paris
compatible decommissioning date, and 2) expand restrictions to cover all aspects of the coal
supply-chain as well as the full range of financial products ECAs offer.
0
Canada Japan China Korea Italy UK Russia Germany France India South Africa Mexico
*Formally called the Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Sector Understanding (CFSU)
**Due to a lack of transparency, these finance figures are likely to be significant underestimates. Source: Oil Change International Shift the Subsidies Database, 2020
MOST G20 COVID-19 RECOVERY G20 countries supporting the coal sector as part of their
9
Covid-19 recovery packages
PACKAGES INVEST IN THE PAST: Policies supporting coal
0 20 40 60 80 100
Billion USD
Clean energy Coal Other fossil fuels Source: Energy Policy Tracker, January 2021
Notes: Some countries had already allocated expenditure to the coal sector prior to Covid-19, e.g. Germany.
Many policies supporting coal as part of the G20 countries’ responses to Covid-19 remain unquantified.
SOME G20 COVID-19 RECOVERY Hydrogen strategies of G20 countries
10
PACKAGES INVEST IN THE FUTURE: Japan:
Basic Hydrogen Strategy
Australia:
National Hydrogen Strategy
EU:
Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-
Like the fossil fuel driven development before it, for hydrogen to become affordable it is 1 Steam reformation
and cracking
H2
imperative that hydrogen infrastructure is developed (and fast) to realise economies of scale. Hydrogen can
Innovation will also be required, to improve production and storage options. International be made from END USE
coordination will make this process less risky and costs will be distributed. Leading economies
in the G20 have a critical role to play, and the recent wave of hydrogen policies signals that
electricity, bioenergy
or fossil fuels with
PRODUCTION
HYDROGEN
many are stepping up to the challenge. carbon capture
Heating
Hydrogen can be made with any power source, captured as a by-product from certain SUPPLY
& DISTRIBUTION
industry, and also occurs naturally. Colours are used to differentiate power source, process,
and whether carbon capture and storage (CCS) are used in production. Green hydrogen
(produced with renewable energy) is the most promising option for transitioning to net-zero,
2 Hydrogen can be stored, Fertiliser Transport
followed by blue hydrogen (produced with gas, using CCS). converted to synthetic fuels
or transported by truck, ship
Synthetic Storage Export
fuels
or pipeline