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Key Observations:
• Global economic fallout has been sudden and substantial – still unclear where the bottom lies but
impact likely to be significant and enduring.
• Governments have generally been quick to respond with various stimulus packages and measures for
both businesses (particularly SMEs) and individuals.
• Although no sector is immune, some will suffer more than others:
o sectors and businesses that were already suffering before the crisis will find it particularly
difficult to access funding or government bailouts;
o businesses with limited liquidity, negative operating cash flows and/or high leverage are
particularly exposed.
• In the event this crisis moves into an extended recession, short term liquidity issues risk turning into
issues of solvency.
• Proactively addressing operating and capital expenses, maximising cash and working capital, and
transparent communication and cooperation with stakeholders can help mitigate the impact.
COVID-19 Impact
The outbreak of the Coronavirus (“COVID-19”) is now a global pandemic. The financial impact in recent
weeks has been dramatic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 23.2% in Q1 2020, its largest quarterly
decline since 2008. The impact on economies is already being felt within Southeast Asia and will continue in
the coming months:
• Industrial Production and Supply Chain Disruption – China’s industrial shutdown since late January
through much of March was on an unprecedented scale, including more than 20 provinces which
represented 80% of GDP and 90% of exports. China is restarting but industrial shutdowns for all but
essential services have now commenced across ASEAN manufacturing centres, including in all or parts
of Malaysia, Indonesia, India and Australia.
• Travel and Tourism – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts revenue impact to
airlines globally of in excess of USD250 billion, while the Centre for Aviation (CAPA) forecasts most
airlines will be bankrupt by June 2020.
• Consumer Discretionary Spending – McKinsey estimates a 40-50% reduction in consumer discretionary
spending in the US as a result of the virus, roughly equivalent to 10% of existing GDP.
• Commodities Demand – The S&P GSCI (benchmark measure of commodity performance) ended the first
quarter of 2020 down 41.5%, while Brent crude fell from USD66/bbl to USD26.42/bbl (60% decline)
during the same period.
• Liquidity – As the crisis persists, the longer-term effect will be a drain on working capital assets of
companies and reduced valuations and availability of finance. Lenders, governments and regulators in
most countries have taken initial steps to ensure it is easier for businesses to access funding (but these are
primarily focused on SMEs) and to restructure existing facilities. However, it will be difficult for
businesses that entered into this crisis with poor balance sheets to meet necessary criteria for funding and
in the event of a longer recession, short term liquidity issues risk turning into issues of solvency.
A focus on cash is paramount and this will likely require all stakeholders to share the burden. Some key
proactive steps include the following:
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• work with key suppliers – landlords, suppliers, employees and financiers to negotiate mutually acceptable
amendments to existing agreements based on transparent information; and
• if necessary, defer certain payments altogether in the short term until there is increased certainty and
engage with counterparties at a later stage.
The Borrelli Walsh team has significant experience assisting distressed clients in Southeast Asia. We would
be happy to discuss how our approach can assist your firm.
CONTACTS
Jason Kardachi Ben Crilly
Managing Director, Singapore Director, Jakarta
T: +65 6603 0795 T: +62 21 3000 2217
M: +65 9101 2123 M: +62 817 649 4748
E: jk@borrelliwalsh.com E: bjc@borrelliwalsh.com
Disclaimer: The information provided in this update does not, and is not intended to, constitute accountancy, tax, investment or
other professional advice. Specific advice should be sought about your specific circumstances. Please contact the Borrelli Walsh
team at bw@borrelliwalsh.com.
www.borrelliwalsh.com