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By 1998 it was generating over $3 billion in global revenues, from and within over 200
countries.
UPS projected that by 2003 online B2C sales in the US would surpass the $100 billion
spent annually on catalog sales.
UPS began offering suppliers a portfolio of financial services & logistic technology
software applications designed to help them better manage their inventory and shipping
logistic.
Risks:
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Competitive challenges from postal monopolies.
Rapidly changing environment at an unprecedented rate
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Question 2 How is UPS performing? What factors are driving this performance? Is the current
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performance likely to be sustained? Why or why not?
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Performance of UPS:
Answer
Delivering 13 million packages each business day ( 9,000 every minute) to over 200
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countries worldwide.
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Having daily contacting with 1,8 million customers (including every company in the
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Fortune 1000) and making deliveries to 6 million business and residential addreeses.
In 1999, was recognized as the “World’s Most Admired Global Mail, Package and
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Factors driving:
Operational and service-excellence culture
Carefully trained workforces.
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Question 3 How is FedEx performing? How, if at all, do its performance and plans affect your
assessment of the sustainability of UPS’s current performance?
Answer Performance of FedEx
A $ 17 billion global transportation and logistics enterprise.
By the late 1990s, FedEx moved over 3 million packages each day, with the ability to
reach virtually every business address in the US and almost every country around the
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world within 24 hours.
Achieving success by selectively targeting some of UPS’s most valuable accounts: high-
volume customers in high-density locations.
Acquisition and rename RPS-> FedEx Ground to take advantage of its own strong brand.
It may affect the sustainability of UPS’s current performance because of losing customers.
Question 4 Given your assessment of the company’s strategy and the sustainability of its performance,
forecast the key factors for UPS’s stock value.
Answer UPS’s combination of “control, rules, a detailed union contract, and carefully studied
work methods… helped guarantee the customer reliable, low cost service
Most of UPS’s equity was held by current & retired employees, founding family and
foundations
It was anticipated that after the IPO, the current UPS shareowners would own 90% of
the firm’s equity and control about 99% of the vote.
Value of UPS’s stock could be very high.
Question 5 What is your estimate of UPS’s value and its multiples?
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Answer Total revenue of UPS was increasing steadily during period 1995-1998 and could keep
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increase in the next few years.
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Question 6 How do you estimates of UPS’s PE & PB multiples compare with those for FedEx? How
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do they compare with those for the “best of breed” companies’ multiples?
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Answer The company’s stock price should be valued at a premium to reflect its superior
performance over other firms in the industry => It’s PE & PB could be higher then those
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for FedEx.
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