Maintenance Planning &

Control (0405434)
Dr. Zehra Canan Araci
Spring 2020-2021
Instructor
Dr. Zehra Canan Araci

Education

BSc Industrial Engineering Dumlupinar University, Turkey

MSc Industrial Engineering and Operations Mng University of Nottingham, UK

PhD Lean Product and Process Development Cranfield University, UK

Experience

12 years of academic and industrial experience with prestigious companies; Rolls-Royce Plc, Airbus,
IKEA suppliers, Caltec, Arcelik, Al-Zahra Hospital Dubai.
About you…
• Name
• Where are you from?
• Which area of IEEM are you interested most?
• What is your plan after graduation?
I hear and I forget. Theory
+
I see and I remember. Examples

I do and I understand. +
Class Activities
-Confucius +
Assessments/Exams
=
Lifelong Learning

Dr. Zehra C. Araci

5
Guest lecturer
• Dr. Sarah Qureshi
• Aerospace engineer
• CEO of Aero Engine Craft (the
first private aviation company in
Pakistan)
• Designed the world's first eco-
friendly engine (under
development).

6
Introduction to maintenance management

Maintenance for reliability - Bathtub curve concept

The role of maintenance in improving production systems performance

Basic maintenance concepts

• Reliability-centred maintenance (RCM)

Course
• Streamlined reliability-centred maintenance (SRCM)
• Total productive maintenance (TPM) Topics
Relevant maintenance approaches:

• preventive maintenance
• predictive condition-monitoring techniques
• Other relevant practices

Improving systems' performance:

• Implementing proper maintenance practices

• Identifying KPI's
• Collecting data, assessing performance
• Analyzing results and suggesting improvement solutions.

Reading relevant case studies / Conducting an industry-based project.

Warm up questions
• What is downtime?
• What is reliability?
• What does useful life mean in maintenance concept?
Do you know these terms and definitions?
Maintainability: The probability that a failed item will be restored to its satisfactory
operational state
Maintenance: All actions necessary for retaining an item or equipment in, or
restoring it to, a specified condition
Availability: The probability that an item is available for use when required
Failure: The inability of an item to operate within the defined guidelines
Downtime: The total time during which the item is not in satisfactory operating
state
Useful life: The length of time a product operates within a tolerable level of failure
rate
Definition of Reliability
Reliability: The probability that an item will perform its assigned mission satisfactorily for the stated time
period when used according to the specified conditions

 Further explanation of Reliability of a product can be presented as:

▪ For example, the time between consecutive failures of a refrigerator where continuous
working is required is a measure of its reliability.
▪ If this time is more, the product is said to have high reliability.

Human reliability: The probability of accomplishing a task successfully by humans at any required stage in
the system operation with a given minimum time limit (if the time requirement is stated)
Quantification (measurement) of
reliability
• Product Reliability is quantified as:
▪ MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) for repairable product
and
▪ MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) for non-repairable product.

The purpose of maintenance is to ensure the optimum length of these

two reliability measurement aspects MTBF and MTTF.
Class Discussion
• Please click on the link below and read the news article from 31st
August 2020, Khaleej Times.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/news/emergencies/2-dead-in-abu-
dhabi-restaurant-blast-caused-by-gas-leak--

• To what extent is this incident related to maintenance?

• What should have been done to prevent such an incident?
 Reliability Bathtub Curve
•The reliability “bathtub curve” models the cradle to grave instantaneous
failure rate vs. time.
•In real-life, variation as per the bathtub shape has been observed
•This curve is modelled mathematically by exponential functions.
Reliability Bathtub Curve
Reliability
Bathtub
Curve
The life of a population of
devices (a group of
devices of the same type)
can be divided into three
distinct periods:

Early Life:
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be
considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is
what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a
population that is more rigorous.
 Early life
Infant mortality 2 years warranty

Machine A
Defective
Faulty Scenario 1 (first month): machine broke down, return
Failure rate
Scenario 2 (first year): small defects become bigger
over time and causes the machine failure

Scenario 3 (2nd year): smaller defects become

bigger over time and human factors cause the
machine failure

1st month 1st year 2nd year

time
 Early Life Engineering Considerations :
We use many methods to ensure the integrity of design. Some of the design techniques include:
1.burn-in (to stress devices under constant operating conditions);
2.power cycling (to stress devices under the surges of turn-on and turn-off);
3.temperature cycling (to mechanically and electrically stress devices over the temperature
extremes);
4.vibration;
5.testing at the thermal destruct limits;
6.highly accelerated stress and life testing; etc.
All of these methods are designed to bring us to the useful life period before the customer sees
the product.
Reliability
Bathtub
Curve
The life of a population of
devices (a group of
devices of the same type)
can be divided into three
distinct periods:

Useful Life:
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period.
Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which
failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.
Useful Life Engineering Considerations :
As the product matures, the weaker units fail, the failure rate becomes nearly
constant, and devices have entered what is considered the normal life period. This
period is characterized by a relatively constant failure rate. The length of this period
is also referred to as the “system life” of a product or component. It is during this
period of time that the lowest failure rate occurs. Notice how the amplitude on the
bathtub curve is at its lowest during this time. The useful life period is the most
common time frame for making reliability predictions. Two important practical
aspects of these failure rates are: MTBF and MTTF (maintenance metrics)
Reliability
Bathtub
Curve
The life of a population of
devices (a group of
devices of the same type)
can be divided into three
distinct periods:

Wearout :
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the
rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail
at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.
 Wear-out

Failure rate

15 years 17 years 20 years

time
 Wearout Engineering Considerations :
As components begin to fatigue or wear out, failures occur at increasing rates.
Wearout in industrial electronic devices is usually caused by the breakdown of
electrical components that are subject to physical wear and electrical and thermal
stress. It is this area of the graph that the MTBFs calculated in the useful life
period no longer apply. A product with an MTBF of 10 years can still exhibit
wearout in two years. No parts count method can predict the time to wearout of
components. Industrial electronic devices are designed so that the useful life
extends past the design life (when the device is obsolete). This way wearout should
never occur during the useful life of a device.
Example
Why is bathtub curve concept important?
Engineers decide on the maintenance action in each stage of a machine or an
equipment
 Calculating MTBF
• A simple formula to calculate MTBF is:

Number of operational hours (in a specified period according to the design)

MTBF =
Number of actual failures that occurred within that specified period

 An example 1:
An asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over the course of
that year, that asset broke down eight times. Therefore, the MTBF for that piece
of equipment is:
 Calculating MTBF
• A simple formula to calculate MTBF is:

Number of operational hours (in a specified period according to the design)

MTBF =
Number of actual failures that occurred within that specified period

 An example 1:
An asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over the course of
that year, that asset broke down eight times. Therefore, the MTBF for that piece
of equipment is:
1,000 hours
MTBF = = 125 hours/ failure.
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Calculating MTBF
 An example 2:
A similar second asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over
the course of that year, that asset broke down ten times. Therefore, the MTBF for
that piece of equipment is:

 An example 3:
A third similar asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over
the course of that year, that asset broke down twelve times. Therefore, the MTBF
for that piece of equipment is:
Calculating MTBF
 An example 2:
A similar second asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over
the course of that year, that asset broke down ten times. Therefore, the MTBF for
that piece of equipment is:
1,000 hours
MTBF = = 100 hours/ failure.
10
 An example 3:
A third similar asset may have been operational for 1,000 hours in a year. Over
the course of that year, that asset broke down twelve times. Therefore, the MTBF
for that piece of equipment is:
1,000 hours
MTBF = = 83.33 hours / failure.
12
Which of these three similar assets is more reliable ?
Calculating MTBF for a group of similar devices
(operating together in the same conditions)
 An example 4:
Suppose 10 devices are tested together simultaneously for 500 hours each.
During the test 2 failures occur. The estimate of the MTBF is:
Calculating MTBF for a group of similar devices
(operating together in the same conditions)
 An example 4:
Suppose 10 devices are tested together simultaneously for 500 hours each.
During the test 2 failures occur. The estimate of the MTBF is:

(500 X10) hours

MTBF = = 2,500 hours / failure.
2

In large scale operations (e.g. large production lines with similar

machines), MTBF is usually calculated for large numbers of
devices that operates in similar conditions
Calculating MTBF for each operator
• To get an accurate measure of MTBF, operators must collect data from the
actual performance of the equipment.
• Each asset operates under different circumstances and is influenced by
human factors, such as design, assembly, maintenance, and more. That is
why MTBF varies from one to another operator.
• That’s why you should avoid basing your maintenance around an MTBF
estimate from a generic manual or around an estimate from another
asset that operates in different conditions.
How to use MTBF

• MTBF is used to anticipate how likely an asset is to fail within a certain time
period or how often a certain type of failure may occur.
• MTBF will help the operator avoid costly breakdown, especially when paired
(joined) with other maintenance strategies such as failure codes and root
cause analysis, etc.
• Having the correct information about MTBF makes it easier to create
maintenance plans, so reliability can be improved by tackling issues before
they cause failure.
• Also, if a failure does occur, having all the data allows you to improve
maintainability.
Calculating MTTF
MTTF is the number of total hours of service of all devices divided by the
number of devices.
• A simple formula to calculate MTBF is:

Number of operational hours of all Units (in a specified period)

MTTF =
Number of all Units that were operated within that specified period

 An example 5:
Suppose 10 devices are tested together simultaneously for 500 hours each.
During the test 2 failures occur. The estimate of the MTTF is:
Calculating MTTF
MTTF is the number of total hours of service of all devices divided by the
number of devices.
• A simple formula to calculate MTBF is:

Number of operational hours of all Units (in a specified period)

MTTF =
Number of all Units that were operated within that specified period

 An example 5:
Suppose 10 devices are tested together simultaneously for 500 hours each.
During the test 2 failures occur. The estimate of the MTTF is:
(500 X10) hours
MTTF = = 500 hours / failure.
10
MTBF and Product Reliability
• The probability (P) that the product will work for some time (T) without failure
is given by:

T/MTBF
P (T) = e
• Thus, for a product with an MTBF of 250,000 hours, and an operating time of
interest of 5 years (43,800 hours):
MTBF and Product Reliability
• The probability (P) that the product will work for some time (T) without failure
is given by:

T/MTBF
P (T) = e
• Thus, for a product with an MTBF of 250,000 hours, and an operating time of
interest of 5 years (43,800 hours):

43,800/250000
P (T) = e = 0.839289

• Which says that there is an 83.9% probability that the product will operate for
the 5 years without a failure, or, in other words, that 83.9% of the units in the
field will still be working at the 5 year point
Relation between asset value, operation
time, maintenance, and reliability
Relation between asset value,
operation time, maintenance,
and reliability

 The curves in the figure are called life curves.

• Conditions for three maintenance policies are illustrated in the figure, including Policy 0, where no
maintenance is performed at all, and Policies 1 and 2, where maintenance is performed according to different
rules.
• Asset failure can be defined here as the asset condition where asset value becomes zero and lifetime (T) is
the mean time it takes to reach this condition.
• The reliability is linked with the mean time to failure (T)
• Now, life extensions T0 to T1 when Policy 1 is applied instead of Policy 0 and T1 to T2 when Policy 1 is
replaced by Policy 2 can be clearly seen in the figure as are the changes in the asset condition (value) at any
time T
Relation between asset value,
operation time, maintenance,
and reliability

 As far as reliability is concerned, Policy 2 is

clearly superior to Policy 1.
• It is also obvious that maintenance affects component and system reliability.
• But maintenance has its own costs, and when comparing policies, this has to be taken into account.
• The increasing costs of carrying out maintenance more frequently must be balanced against the gains
resulting from improved reliability.
• When costs are also considered, Policy 2 in the Figure may be very costly and, therefore, may not be
superior to Policy 1.
End