Project:

Develop the following schedule in MS Project using @Risk for finding out
Probabilistic Total Duration for the project and Probabilistic Finish date.

Also Find Critical index sensitivity for different activities.

Sno. Actvities duration predecessors

1 A 12 -

2 B 10 1

3 C 20 2

4 D 7 1

5 E 15 4

6 F 25 1

7 G 14 3,5,6

STEPS:

IMPORT MPP FILE

II ADD OUT PUT TO TOTAL DURATION AND FINISH DATE

III. DEFINE DISTRIBUTIONS TRIANGULAR TO A,B,C,D,E,G

A(10, 12,15)

B (8, 10, 13)

C (15, 20, 27)

D (5, 7, 10)

E (12,15,20)

F (20,30)UNIFORM

G (10,14,18)

IV

Progabilistic Gantt Chart:

CORRELATION SENSITIVITY IS FAR TO 1 ITS WEAK

RELATIONSHIP. AND HAS STRONG RELATIONSHIP IF IT IS
CLOSE TO 1.

Blue Bars:Determenistic durations that is without uncertainity

Red bars:The range between earliest possible start date and latest possible
finish date

Pink bars represent 5th percentile and 95th percentile

Diamonds represent median values of start and finish dates

Risk Optimizer:

Risk Optimizer Solves problems where there is uncertainty in

uncontrollable factors. We represent this uncertainty with probability
distribution functions. During optimization Risk Optimizer will try many
different combinations of products or trial solutions and run a Monte
Carlo simulation on each one.

In this model we are trying to maximize revenue by finding the optimal

combination of products to manufacture. However the demand for each
product is uncertain,
Revenue=Sumproduct(units sold,sales price);

Define the Target cells or cell you want to maximize or minimize or

achieve a certain value. Do this in the risk optimizer model window.

In this model window we want to maximize revenue by finding the optimal

fix of the products to manufacture.

Select maximize cell and choose revenue cell.

Define Adjustable Cells:Now tell RO which cells to adjust in an effort to

achieve target.

RO supports cell ranges that define maximum and minimums for

adjustable cells.

Select Produced cell ranges and set it 0<= 5000 and make the group recipe
(method for a set of variables which can change independently. Budget
method used for when the total of adjustable variables must be kept
constant.

Define Constraints: They are usually restrictions or constraints that must

be defined in any optimization problem. In this case you can’t
manufacture more products than you have resources for. Add constraints
for the Limited Resources Raw Material,Labour and machine.We will add
this as cell range.

Hard constraints means the Risk Optimizer will only retain solutions
where resources are available

Set the constraints.