ce a
Ayer ad) Vee era)
ease Ua)
Melba ha
Ma
as
4
il
Os iy
PY) 4P NATIONAL
42
‘The Primacy of Federal
Criminal Law in
National Security
‘The mor specialized, consttutional and leg
term of crminal law’ serves the national security
‘peter due tothe dynamic nature ofthe security
‘heats that express themselves in nom
‘radiona and es territorial terms
by Kamran Ai
withthe Geneva meeting between the NSA od
‘Patisan andthe United states, bth courtris
‘nave st the stage fr afresh impetus oftheir
‘Dateral ies with pegs of ereter
Tones
r INTERNATIONAL
a Precipice
Afghanistan on the Edge of
15
‘the exert opinion points tit thatthe Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan appe
mere formality now, a5 the group continues fo fight its way back into the power
bby Amanat Ali Chaudhry
12
Global Humanity
Paralyzed by Covid-19
‘ross the globe, the Covid19 pandemic
has paralyned human society ito a world
of greater unknowns and socioeconomic
‘and politcal instability
by Dr Mahboob A, Khawaja
30
Carbis Bay G7 Summit
Mote disturbing isthe increasing tens
between China and the G7
‘the summit leaders agreed
China’ non-mark
‘and call out Beling for rights abu
19 | Israel Lost This Round
22 | China's 7th Population Census
24 | Putin's Russian Roulette
26 | The Myth of a Rules-Based World
33 | Modi's Icarus Moment
37|AProposal to End the Pandemic 4 9}
~ Facebook.com/CSSPMSCE2 INT
77
Promoting Tourism in Pakistan
28 | The New Atlantic Charter
40 | Say Hello to A Brand-new Ocean
408 | World in Focus
There are many opportunities which need tobe
cexploted to promote tourism i Pakistan. These
‘opportunities include places of seenic beauty,
historia sites and national monuments
‘by Muhammad Asi dasa
64
Sse
| 99
The Changing
Face of Quetta
5 | From the Editor's Desk uopl hom ah ve Pakistan wou eome CSS Exam
8 | Letters to the Editor ere eee eople interested in joining Foreign Service
: a of Pokstan or with akeen intrest in
9 | Ebrahim Raisi
10 | Climate Change
60 | Amazon Comes to Pakistan
65 | Zhang Yirning
76 | Lina Khan
International politics must opt for IR keeping
In mind its tough competition
|
|
|
ee
‘by Muhammad Atif Sheikh oan
81 | Falling Behind and Falling Apart
62 8 | Parerersary and prea ean
Yuan 89 | Climate Change
Longping 92 | Rashakai Special Economic Zone
Known as “the Father of Hybrid Rice,” Yuan 94 | Moral Philosophy
ae 96 | Vaccine Poverty
by Zafrliah Saroya 97 | John Austin's Command Theory of Law
104 | The ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Thesis
y Ra Uae
eae
eng
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Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEFor feedback and suggestions,
please write to us at:
relies Muelle Url Ree iF
Pakistan's Covid-19 Campaign
T= Pakistan goverment deserves praise for the manner in which it has
been procuring and distributing vaccines to inoculate citizens against
Covid-19, including the simple text message-based registration and
prompt appointment messages, leading to opening up walk-in vaccinations forall
age groups. However, there are two areas the federal and provincial
govemiments need to improve their performance to achieve the stated target of
herd immunity against Covid-19 by Eid-ul-Azha: the communication campaign to
‘encourage vaccinations, and the privacy protocols related to vaccination data,
The state should take an approach of encouraging informed consent for Covid-
18 vaccination amongst the people instead of forcing people to get vaccinated
against their willby imposing penalties and other measures.
‘Muzaffar Hussain
Astore
PTI's Economic Scorecard
T: PTI government has been able to accelerate the economic growth rate
to 3.94% in the outgoing fiscal year. This has prompted a respanse by the
opposition politcal parties who downplay amelioration in the economy
This nearly 4% rise in economic growth is due to the low-base effec, but the fact
that it comes along with 2 positive current account balance, a relatively market-
based rupee, and a rise in foreign exchange reserves is worth appreciating
Exports remain at $20 S billion from July to April and may endup close to mid-$25
bilion.Itis important to mention that a continuously high remittance (above $2
billion each month) significantly helped the cause of the PTI government. Hen,
PTI now has a choice to either buld on the hard work previously undertaken orto
instead drive growth in the same manner previous governments di to post a
compromised yet high grow rate. Based on what we hear from Shaukat Tarn,
they are likely to opt forthe latter, Politically, the target for the incumbents is to
‘surpass the 5% growth mark presumed to be the only reliable indicator to judge
‘economic prosperity. But, wll they be able do so without triggering a sel-inficted
boom-bust cycle remains the most pertinent question.
Uzair Salman But
Gujrat
Pakistan Super League
he sich edition ofthe Pakistan Super League has com
final between Peshawar Zaimi and Multan Sultans, wth te ater emerging asthe
champions, This years tournament dd tun out to be qute a challenge because the
Jeague was suspended backin March after seven players were tested positive for Cov
19. took n incredible effort to rlocate the league tothe UAE, The PSL has undeniably
come along way. Notonlyisitimmensely popuarathome, but te league's viewershiphas
Increased significant allover the word. The PSLhashelped the PCB unearthsome really
exceptional young players over the years who are now playing forthe national team in
lp formats. As the toumament continues to grow and prosper, would be nice to see
‘more teams being added. Tis will nt only provide space to alts who currently stuggle
{orplaying ime because ofthe competition, but aso aid payer development programs in
‘otherwise neglected pars ofthe country where the ame has immense potental to grow.
Muhammad Shahbaz
‘Larkana
a close wit a thing
Bai
ra
EDITOR
Raised PSDP
ne of the highlights of the new
federal budget isthe massive hike
in the federal Public Sector
Development Program (PSDP). According
to the budget, the federal PSDP budget
has been raised to R's900 billion, ajump of
about 40 percent compared to what was
originally budgeted in FY21. Clearly the
.growth-seeking government is banking on
PSDP to prime the economic pump,
However, itis one thing to allocate large
sums and quite another to actualy spend
it. Keeping things in a historical context
the Rs900 bilion federal PSDP is the
second-highest for Pakistan. The highest
so far was budgeted under the last
government, when the PML-N was going
into an election year and accordingly
allocated Rs trilion under federal PSDP
in FY18. But if wishes were horses,
beggars would ride. Since the PSDP
development model has limited absorption
capacity the previous government could
only spend 68 percent of that lofty
spending target. The current government
also faces similar limitations on
development spending, perhaps even
more, considering it is under an IMF
program that imposes fiscal constraints
So, the government has some c
to do, The PSOP utilization in t
government has averaged about 70
percent so far in its term, lower than the
PML-N government's average of 8
percent (range: 66% to 96%) during its
term. The current government also lags
when it comes to development spending's
share in overall expenditures. The last
government's PSDP spending had
averaged 14 percent of its overall
spending (FY14-FY18). PTl’s PSDP
spending has averaged just 8 percent is
first two years.
Muhammad Sadiq Khan
Karachi
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCE018. an hl te preset ection cos succes
fas Raat wo wee fee n Aue ate sonra enn
{ems allwed under he consitvton Inthe pols, anion asetrys bead anon
Ebrahim Rats. wo enjoys wide backing tam the conser ate
orev te
o ang Rarinerevotitony camp ants \
base. enetedas te winery ganeragetSSprenethna Race a ee
hetsiesowttomPresdetRauho oh nerestomapintonaarmeeter tee ee
as close tote Bt-year-d supreme leader Ayatolah Ak Khamenn, who has timate pola
lan Rasisevenseenas abhelysuccessorioe 82 year-ofKhamene when pases any
8th President
Ebrahim Raelsi
1960
| Ebrahim Raeisi was born in Mashhad
| province of Iran on Dec. 14
1981
| Following the revolution in 1979, he
| began his career as the prosecutor of
| Karaj in 1981
|
1988
| He took part in the committee which
| gave the order of execution of the
imprisoned regime opponent with
instructions from Ayatollah Khomeini
1989-1994
| He served as the Attorney-General in
| Tehran
| 1994
He was appointed as the head of the
State Supervisory Council and
remained in the post for ten years
2004
| He was appointed as the Chief Deputy
to Head of Judiciary Power
2014-2016
He was appointed as Attorney-General
of Iran. In 2016, he was chosen to be
the Chairperson of Imam Reza Holy
7] Shrine Foundation by Ayatollah
Brief Profile
ent poset, Dr Ebrahim Raisi was bor
cube Fur year In 1960 into a strictly
raligious family in the
‘country's second largest
city, Mashhad, which is
also a religious centre
for Shia Muslims as it
houses the shrine of
Imam Reza, the eighth
Imam. The custodian of
the shrine is an
Influential foundation
that was headed by Rais!
from 2016 to 2019.
Raisi received 2
religious education and
began attending the
‘seminary in Qom when
he was 15. There, he
power
" studied under several
Khamanei
prominent schelars,
Including Khamenei. He
2017 underwent extensive
Running in the elections, Raeisi theological training and
lost the elections against the holds the tile of
current President Hassan Rouhani Hojatolestam, which
2019 Iterally means
Appointed as the Head of “authority on islam." In
Judiciary Power tra’sreigious
Launching an investigation against hierarchy, the position is
high-level judiciary officials for esctee oot
Ayatolah
corruption in justice, Raeisi
emphasized tackling corruption,
one of the greatest problems in doctorate degree in law
the country, throughout his time in and jurisprudence from
office Mottahari University in
Tehran.
Raisi's career began
afer the Islamic
Later, he received a
He was included in the list of
sanctions by the US in November
due to his role in the execution of
politcal prisoners as well as Revolution in 1979,
quelling the socal upheavals in when he was appointed
2009 prosecutor general of
Kara) a subd of
foes Tehran, at the age of 20.
He has become the ath President \ alaabiteinb
of his country, receiving 62% of the positions he would hold
votes, according to the first results
Inthe judiciary. He Ister
of the presidential elections in tran
became a judge, and has
headed, since 2019, the
‘country’s judiciary,
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEfrom 18h Amendment has posed significant
and Bangladesh, Pakistan's vera
from its geographic, demographic and diverse cimatc
conditions. Mis projected hat both tbeintenity and frequency
receding ac
cexteme waters, f00 in
+ losses, ecosystems degrataton, coast
‘sing sealevels, decreased
‘As consequence of 18h Amendment the C
2010, 47 fed re devolvedtote provinces
change aso. The Fe
of international agreements and
ns whereas the implementa
provincial
level, This
has created
4 ihotomy
between intent
and implementa
Sorc
en
setup for ciate change in Pakistan, therelore
requiring higher degree of coherence ard clay It suggests ms could be
Ihe establishment of @ provincial comissin, (b) the
creaton ofan enabing legal envzonment
the nclsionof imate change criteria inthe NF sal ranser formula
‘Based on recent assessments
heavy economic lsses due fo Cima
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCE
ate change cena nis economic gronth approach hat
caters for growth, pover reduction andwet-teng ofthe popu, Despite the
‘oninuing and ineeasng pressure on esonany due to Cov sinoe early 2020,
Pakistan has stuggled to make substantal progress in regaining
spreadtotrose who were never
ployment has risen andthe wages
have gone dawnover tne, Once od suicent, Pakistan now imports food. Asa
reaul mere than 35% ofthe population is confonted wih tte menace of ood
insecuty despite Pakistan having achieved se sufcencyn main staple crops.
CCimate change ad tha accompanying increase in temperature and varying
ranflipatern has adversely mpactd agua productonn Pakistan which,
istof being extremely fected by
climate change and due to secutty chalenges are both
increasing and compounding. A 7
between elmate change proites an
‘more nutrient variants while selecting foodies frimpot
The wnteris a momberof staf
viding cheaper ye healthier andQUARTERLY POLITIKON
AJOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
ane
Waal
The world around us is constantly changing and global scholarship on major global issues is growing
‘exponentially. The knowledge of the past and present, theoretical and empirical, about global systems and
communities in tiny states, about matters of wars and peace, of democracy and tyranny, about philosophy and
strategy has enriched the global understanding and knowledge. However, this expanded knowledge has also
created a predicament for students and practitioners about the need to read high quality and relevant articles.
For this purpose, quality articles, interviews and book reviews related to subject of International Relations and
Political Science have been collected from multiple sources and compiled in Quarterly Politikon: A Journal of
Political Science and International Relations. This journal snot only useful for CSS/PMS aspirants but also equally
valuable for academics (Researchers) engaged in Colleges /Universities and National Security Institutions.
A Project of
WORLD TIMES INSTITUTE
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEGude
Parauvzep By Covin-19
The Politics of Conflicts Looks for Change and Unity
:
1 connected
canjust"
‘The Covid-19 Pandemic Demands Critical
Thinking and Human Unity
living in a connected world of virt
of the globe
reality ~ people in one pai
not be separated by the Covid-19
pandemic and continued insanity of violent political
conflicts, Men fighting, each other due to a perpetuation of
fgnorance, greed, economic and intellectual explottation
and political domination - an unending irresistible
impulse of ill-informed mindset led by the
‘many. The political leaders, professing, 1o be wise, act like
anarchists of political indoctrination without knowledgs
and human integrity. Across the globe, the Covid-19
pandemic has paralyzed human society into a world of
greater unknowns and socioeconomic and political
instability. Vaccinations have been hurriedly developed
and are being used on an experimental basis as if an
effective remedial approach is beyond scientific and
12
‘The Covid-19 pandemic has unequivocally demonstrated that we are not just one world, buta very tightly-knit one, We areal
‘a milion different ways. We share a world, the only habitable one in the neighborhood, and we treat it ike we
1ove up" when we outgrow (or destroy) this one. Well, we cant, and conflict elsewhere willimpact us all ultimately.
The crucler we see the world, the more afraid people get. The more afraid people get, the more likely they will support
“strong (a.k.a authoritarian) leaders. The more authoritarian the leaders, the more damageis done all around, and theless
freedom people have, And it all spreads lke wildfire - from person to person —
When youthink aboutit, the world rally has become a small place so let's treatit ike our neighborhood. '
Just like our current Covid-19 pandemic.
Mahboob Khawaja, PhO
reasoned human understanding, Evilis real, not imaginary
= be it the Covid pandemic or manmade political contticts
tury
‘going on throughout the world and we, the 2Lst-c
human societies and civilizations, are unable to cope with
these all, The global community appears tortuented by
socioeconomic disparities and moral and political cruelty
and want
and injustice echo their own voices of reason
under extremely unfavourable circumstances, One cannot
separate evil and (ruth as we face a turbulent emerging
future of uncertainty, We appear to be haunted by
persistent forces of distortion and destruction.
The Covid-19 crisis is a strand that can be found in the
we Ast
ja
interwoven people's thought and polities of th
century's knowledge-based, informed governance th
echoes concerns and priorities that humanitarian
tives are sacrificed for politcal expediency: The
sentiment of human solidarity # inereast
ew tie
impei
commo
against the inept nationalistic politics of the fe
wwwjworldtimes.com July 2021
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEeM
former US Presielent Trump's “America Firs." Politicians
Cannot resolve an exceptionally complex. medical
“roblem. When a global paradigm of this: nature and
Unpredictable scope hits mankind, one cannot think to
focus on national interest and political campaigns to
recelected. We are witnessing the severe impacts of this
pandemic across the globe and how millions and millions
feject the politically maneuvered ideological divisions,
patred and fear and opt for understanding, collaboration
and human solidarity’ to fight the virus with ingenuity,
Compassion and global unity. It is possible for the
thinking people of the globe to rise up to the challenge and
demonstrate how best We the People are connected
together as One Humanity to counter this invisible enemy
‘without borders or nationalities. For several decades, the
political elite of the global systematic governance
remained preoccupied with warfare and the insanity of
victimizing good parts of humanity in the Middle East,
Asia, South America and many’ parts of Africa, We the
People deserve change for global unity to tackle the
unknown impacts of infectious disease. This is a call for
slobal unity - from America, Europe, Russia, China, Asia,
n peace and conflict dynamics
Polley respanes adopted to combat
tie pandemic have already hal
ice and conflict,
Excessive use
‘of force against
civilians
wwwjwortdtimes.com July 2021
Covid-19 and conflict dynamics
‘Tuecounties portrayed here are med groups take
‘lanples of eomests where some of
Shekd effets ae manifest advantage ofthe
‘lobal distra
‘created by the pandemic
Africa and other parts of the world - we must rise to the
challenge, Given the scientific knowledge and medical
cures, we are capable of overcoming the multiple layers of
socioeconomic and political problems affecting human
Societies and address the pandemicas well.
Political Conflicts Continue to Dehumanize and
Undermine Rational Thinking
We are witnessing, continuous killing. and bombardment
of civilian habitats in Palestine, Israel, Syria, traq and
Kashmir. We watch helplessly as the Rohingya from
Myanmar, and people from Yemen and elsewhere are
forcibly displaced. Tyranny has no other name and is a
planned calamity imposed on powerless and innocent
human beings with nowhere to hide for survival. Palestin-~
ians are bombed and displaced from their natural
homeland by forces of political ideology of Israel;
Kashmiris are locked up for years by the Indian security
forces for demanding their basic human rights of freedom
and justice; Yemeni people are bombed by Saudis and UAE
for political control and Syrians continue to be killed and
displaced by authoritarianism. This was the moment that
the UN Security Council should have developed a work-
able mechanism of safety and protection of civilians in all
major centres of political and ethnic conflicts.
What sparked riots in East Jerusalem cannot be
separated from the broader conflict between Israel
and Palestine. The forcible eviction of Palestinians
from their ancestral homes in East Jerusalem is a
global issue, itis not the domestic affairs of Israel,
and the UN, and America should treat its urgency
Civil unrest sparked Temporary and
by deteriorating mostly unilateral
socioeconomic conditions ceasefires
13
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCETERNATIONAL
for a peaceful resolution, A ceasefire is not the solution
but a prelude to more factional conflicts. The core issue is
the occupation and Israel should be made to understand
that only a Two-State solution is the reasoned approach
between the two rivals and to satisfy the norms of peace
and expectations of the global community.
We need a constant force of reason, ingenuity and
commitment to stop the killings and unwarranted
bombardments of civilians ~be it in Gaza, East Jerusalem,
Yemen, and Syria or other parts of human cultures, If
Isracli_and Palestinian leaders could sit and have a
dialogue, would it not be preferred rather than the
inhuman shelling of civilian populations and cruelty of,
Killing innocent children, and displacement of civilians
with no ties to any political group. President Biden's
administration must rethink to evolve a reasoned
approach for peacemaking and stop support of one
against another in the Middle East conflict. Killing is
madness, losing the sense of normalcy and reasoned
discourse - has this not been happening for
over 70 years in the Middle East? America
and West Europe hold the key to stopping
this insanity and to take initiatives for the
restoration of human consciousness for
change towards peacemaking and
conflict resolution. The voices of
Feason are echoed across the globe but
constant warfare undermines human
concerns and optimism against many
‘odds. We the People and Concerned
Humanity must think out of the box as
proactive scholars and thinkers to offer
new visions and prospects of
peaceful interaction and persua~
sion to resolve our differences and
conflicts. Otherwise, we tend to be
on the wrong side of thoughts, time and history to
destroy our own existence and future.
Can We the People of Globe See in the Mirror for our
Future-making?
If time and history are a reference point, humankind
stands at a critical juncture of our own complacency to
have allowed ignorance, hatred, fear and animosity to
destroy our life, culture and existence. The few obsessed
with invincible armies and political powers - the warriors
as dreamers to control and dominate us - have driven
humanity to a terrible sense of helplessness and void
about our future. We are witnessing a growing culture of
domination as was experienced in history ~ the self=
centred maniacs claiming to be leaders of peace and all
‘mankind, the most hated and feared are turning the world
into more man-made tragedies, animosities continued
drone attacks and bogus wars. All of this cruel chaos is
causing massive death and destruction, endangering life,
human habitats and the sanctity of the planet Earth, The
14
iced is urgent to understand how to change the egoistc
and embittered insanity of the few hate-mongers ong
warlords into an equilibrium of balanced relationship
between Man, Life, and the God-given living Universe we
all reside in.
Ina time of humanitarian crisis of the pandemic, we must
allow the truth of One Humanity to support our existence
and future, We must rethink that we are not alone; how we
care about others; the neglected and tormented humanity
striving for its existence and sustainable lifelines. Often,
politically aligned thinking in Europe and America has
ignored the humanitarian vitality of China and Russia for
convenient political expediency. There appears to be a lot
of conjecture to be cleaned out and clarified for change
and a new world order of collaboration and help for itis
most needed beyond national flags and borders. We
desperately need to re-organize our thoughts and genius
towards unity and coordination to pool the human
resources to fill the political gaps of egoism and
anarchy between inept patriotism and
d global outreach to restructure
our policies and practices. We
need fo extend humanitarian help
to all those who need it most, not
Investing in weapons of mass
destruction. We must shut our ears
to claims of individual greatness.
and open our hearts for a revitalized
sense of One Humanity ready to
protect the present and future of
human civilizations.
Can we see the collective conscience
. as a mirror? Why have we been
Pushed to resort to inhumane characteristics and
behaviours with those who appear to be well-educated
and morally and intellectually intact but act like agents of
the Draconian age as if there were no people of REASON
and accountability. populating the planet Earth? Bom-
bardment of civilian habitats and displacement of the
lian population will not create a better world with
hope and optimism for the future. We must use the force
of reason, truth and adaptability to change and under
stand the contemporary crises and protect our rights te
freedom and human dignity, and be One Humanity. Lait
tw learn more from your inner conscience, your sense of
humanity, your deep insight to human emancipation for
Change and adaptability to the challenges of our common
future as ONE Humanity as once one of the classi
scholars Alexis Carrel entitled his book: Man, The
Unknown. gy
Dr Mahboob A. Khawaja is the author of several
publications including the latest: Global Peace, Secu"
and Conflict Resolution: Approaches to Understand th
Current Issues and Future-Makin
‘www. jworldtimes.com July 2021
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCE‘he United States is iL
alse to wind up the
withdrawal of its 5)
forces by mid-July,
around two months
ahead of the
withdrawal plan
announced by President Joe
Biden. The accelerated drawdown
curently underway has provided a fresh
impetus to the anxiety surrounding the fate of the
regionin general and Afghanistan in particular.
Itis nowa mathematical certainty and all the
| expert opinion points to it that the Taliban's,
+ takeover of Afghanistan appears to bea mere
formality now, as the group continues to fight
its way back into the power corridors.
If the Doha peace talks under the Trump
administration conferred legitimacy on the Taliban as a
stakeholder in the future of Afghanistan, the withdrawal
announcement by the Biden Administration has filled the
sr0up with reservoirs of confidence to shape the reality of
the post-withdrawal Afghanistan in line with their
political ideology.
Contrary to what President Ashraf Ghani may say in terms
of warding off the Taliban's march towards Kabul, the fact,
remains that the Afghan National Defence and Security
Forces (ANDSF) are ill-prepared in terms of motivation
and fighting ideology to face a confident Taliban without
the crucial support that the NATO and US forces have
Provided to them.
With questions raised on the continuity of foreign
economic and military assistance to the Afghan
government, the experts have expressed an apprehension
that the possibility of the disintegration of ANDSF
remains very much real.
By all accounts, the situation is ripe for new and more
dangerous bouts of violence and hostilities breaking out
after the US and NATO pullout. While the transnational
terror outfits such as al-Qaeda may have been humbled and
their capacity to fight downgraded, they have yet to be
climinated. As the battle for power intensifies in the comin
‘Weeks and months, these groups are likely to make serious
efforts to stage a comeback by exploiting the chaotic
situation to their advantage. This means more bloodshed.
Already the signs of impending implosion have begun to
www,jworldtimes.com July 2021
Amanat Ali Chaudhry
emerge. The levels of violence have gone up in recent
months as Afghanistan has suffered deadly terrorist
attacks including the one on a girls’ school in Kabul, which
revived the agonizing memory of the APS tragedy.
‘The fears of terrorist groups getting a new lease of life
hhave sent shivers down the spine of the regional countries,
as well as the US. It explains why the US wants to retain,
some kind of presence in and around Afghanistan to carry
out counterterrorism operations should such terrorism
capable of threatening American interests.
The New York Times story titled “CIA Scrambles for New
Approach in Afghanistan” detailed the efforts that the
Biden Administration is making to acquire bases for such,
operations. As the US National Security Advisor Jack
Sullivan stated in a press conference in Washington, the
senior Biden administration officials are in talks with
several countries including Pakistan. Though he refused
to mention the specifics of the negotiations, he expressed
the hope that things were moving ina positive direction,
Ever since the Doha peace deal was struck in February
2020, the political commentators long held that it would
not be able to survive the change of leader
White House following the November elections.
opinion was driven more by the prevailing dynamics that
inform America’s forever’ war in Afghanistan and less by
any fundamental difference on the deals design.
Right from the time when the proposal of a ‘surge’ of,
40,000 troops was mooted by the American military
leadership to defeat the Taliban, Joe Biden, then the Vice
President under the Obama administration, publicly
opposed the suggestion and urged that the size of the
troop surge should be determined by the objective of
‘degrading the Taliban’. This was clearly a resounding
disapproval of such strategic concepts as nation-building,
5
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCETe
President Biden's announcement of the complete troop
exit from Afghanistan may have caught some
stakeholders unaware including America's Nato allles, it
at least, provided a strategic clarity 10 & mission, whose
fate has been in the balance due to several factors—the
chief being the inability of the Taliban and the Kabul
government to produce a unanimous power-sharing
formula.
Tthas been stated that the Taliban's refusal to attend the
Istanbul peace huddle forced the Biden administration to
announce its ‘alternative’ withdrawal plan that was in the
‘works as part of the review process of the Doha deal. The
fact remains that banking on the deal to produce an
outcome that suits all parties to the Afghan conflict flew
{in the face of peculiar realities in Afghanistan
The Doha deal, no doubt, represented the Trump
administration's effort to bring some kind of order to a
country that is historically known for never-ending strife
and feuds over power, The specifics of the deal required
that all stakeholders privilege the interests of the Afghan
People over their own and work in unison to achieve a
modicum of political stability for the war-torn country
As the subsequent developments following the
conclusion of the Doha peace agreement in February 2020
indicated, the Taliban and the Ashraf Ghani-led
government, two principal actors, worked at cross
purposes. Kabul objected to Washington's approach to
directly deal with the Taliban, an approach that the
government said undermined its authority and gave the
‘Taliban a semblance of legitimacy.
On the other hand, the Taliban took the peace process as
an opportunity to increase the stakes as the likely
inheritor of power once the coalition forces left
Afghanistan. The conditions on the ground whereby the
Taliban hold the initiative supported such an assertion.
Today, the Taliban have established their ascendancy in
almost 26 of 34 provinces of Afghanistan, thus getting a
Vital military edgein the process.
However, the conditionalities prescribed as part of the
Doha agreement were meant to temper the Taliban's wild
power ambitions inan effort to make the transition alittle
orderly and give the whole political exercise an
appearance of a negotiated settlement,
Biden's announcement revived the prospect of intens
violence breaking out in the event of the US military
Withdrawal. It freed the Taliban and other factions of any
commitment to the Doha peace deal, thus leaving the field
wide open for the powerful to take on the basis of their
fighting prowess.
The White House decision has pushed all the actors with
stakes in Afghanistan back to their drawing rooms. Before
them is the onerous task to review the emergent situation
and come up with the ‘best workable’ options. In addition
to sparking a fresh round of anxiety, the development has
also renewed the possibility of Afghanistan becoming a
16
new theatre of a cold war between the rival countries that
will surely be on the lookout to locate new partners and.
proxi
It means the injection of even greater uncertainty
powered by rivalry to the mix of factors whose
consequences and implications are likely to envelop the
eographical confines of
whole region, beyond the
Afghanistan.
‘Some political analysts state that Bide
‘and run is aligned with his administration's principal
priorities shaped by domestic considerations, particularly
the formidable challenge of fighting Covid-19 and
repairing the US from inside. They point to the fact that
any extended American military presence in Afghanistan
is unlikely to achieve anything substantial. The threat of
terrorism has been considerably downgraded and a
combination of factors such as bad governance and
corruption that are said to be endemic in Kabul serves to
disincentivize any long-term commitment. The Taliban
continue to remain resilient and strong with even greater
stakes than before.
‘More than anything, the Biden administration's new policy
‘ends the practice of looking at overseas military ventures
in isolation from the pressing issues of domestic nature
and recognizes the new and more formidable threats such
as China, Russia, Iran and the Middle East.
Responding to the charge of the withdrawal plan being
abrupt and sudden, the analysts hold that various US
administrations have seriously considered the idea of
drawing down at different times. As late as 2014,
President Obama mulled an option of reducing the
military presence from active combat missions to training
the Afghan National Security Force.
No matter how ‘convincing’ the arguments justifying the
\'s decision to cut
US couldn't win the y
USTED ETE CO aetem Wc nG
SOTTO H
ir from inside
iNtenny
www.jworidtimes.com July 2021
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCENET
abrupt withdrawal look like, the fact remains that
“America’s longest-running war in history is coming. to an.
end with ignominy for the sole superpower of the world,
‘The winding-up of the war effort with ambiguous victory
claims and without putting in place the post-withdrawal
political arrangement is an admission of the failure on so
many counts. It also betrays the constraint of a policy
rooted in the military power, howsoever brute and techy,
to shape the political reality ina foreign land.
From the grandiose ‘nation-building’ missions of
establishing democracy, liberating women, and building
‘representative’ institutions, the American goal posts have
been changing in Afghanistan, After an experience of two
decades of the deadly war that saw about 2500 US troops
lulled, over $2 trillion lost, and the hundreds of thousands
of innocent Afghans and Pakistanis killed, the US is
confronted with the irony that itis easy to start a war but
difficult to end it despite presiding over the best war
machine,
President Biden's reiteration to keep working with the
Afghan government and involve
regional players such as Pakistan,
China and Russie notwithstand-
ing, his administration's pullout
plan seems to take a leaf from its
book of the 1990s when it
hastened to leave the war-torn
country with horrible
consequences. It was left for the
countries like Pakistan and the
people of Afghanistan to bear the
brunt of the hasty withdrawal.
History appears to be repeating
itself this time as well. The
consequences that flowed from
the events of the ill-thought-out
éeparture do not seem to have weighed in on the present
decision, Nothing suits the forces of terror and anarchy
‘more than an environment of continuing strife, chaos and
bloody competition among the warring factions.
While the ability of al-Qaeda to launch a terrorist act of a
reasonable magnitude may have been downgraded, the
bresence of dreaded 1S in various forms and shap
Gifferent parts of the world means that the countries
{ignore the threats of potential violence at their own peril
The possibility of transnational terror outfits such as 1S
becoming more powerful remains real. Afghanistan
Provides a fertile ground for such terrorist groups.
continuing ‘civil war in Afghanistan after the
‘American withdrawal will multiply security and economic
challenges for Pakistan. An influx of refugees will
Pakistan's ability to cater for their material 1
specially during the current economic slowdown du
Covid-19,
AU the same time, there are valid concerns that the
st
ds,
wo
~~ www jworldtimes.com July 2021
remnants of the ‘TTP that are holed up in safe havens in
1 will use the conditions to stage a comeback
cn Pakistan's security, The post-withdrawal
Afghanistan is tinder box ready to explode, the flames of
which will envelop not just Afghanistan but also the
reytion,a prospect that the U5 will re
Pakistan has legitimate. stakes. in Is
economy and security are closely linked to what goes on in
the nei country. Islamabad has already paid a
ms of human and economic losses with
£83,000 people martyred and $126 billion lost, according,
toaconservative estimate.
Therefore, itis in the vital interest of Pakistan that some
kind of power-sharing arrangement is put in place that
‘ensures the smooth transition of power with an objective
to stop Afghanistan from descending into chaos. The Doha
peace deal owed itself largely to the Pakistani efforts to
bring the Taliban to the table. Its still deeply involved in
behind-the-scene efforts for a breakthrough so far as the
imption of the intra-Afghan dialogue is concerned.
However, the Afghan government
of President Ashraf Ghani has not
helped these endeavours. His
Interview with the foreign media
outlets vitiated the goodwill
created in the wake of the visit of
the Pakistani military leadership
to Kabul. The tendency to
externalize blame for failures and
desperation of its own has been a
marked feature of how the Ghani
government has engaged with
Pakistan.
As the complete drawdown of the
US forces nears, and violence
emerges as the only
possibility in the absence of political peace and
reconciliation efforts being successful, the only option
left for Pakistan could be hurried efforts to get the
regional countries such as Turkey, China and Russia to
bring their collective influence to bear upon the Talibs
nd the Ghani goverment to give peace achance
‘These regional countries have the diplomatic an! economic
clout to make the warring, pat
wwalland bud
and st
real
es real the writing on the
from their stated postions in the unterest of
peace bility. The stakes for the US to ensure a
peaceful transition just appear to be on the decline ay its
ast military personnel pack up to fly back home, BL
The writer, a Chevening scholar, studied International
Journalism at te University of Sussex arr ts also a
regular contributor to The News.
Tmail: amanatchpksigmail.com
Twitter: i Amanat222
1”
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEhe China-Russia comprehensive strategic
partnership of coordination for a new era is
stable and assured, and sees no restricted area
or upper limit. The relationship between China
and Russia is not only at its best, but has also
reached the highest level of equal strategic
cooperation between major countries in the
world.
China and Russia have become strategically closer because
of the US and its main allies’ suppression of the two
countries. However, the China-Russia comprehensive
strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is way
much stronger than such temporary geopolitical dynamics,
It has transformed into the cornerstone of both countries’
national strategies after 20 years of continuous accumula
tion and consolidation. The back-to-back strategic reliance
of China and Russia, as well as their intertwined interests,
are becoming so increasingly valuable that no equivalent in
the world can be exchanged fort.
As a country that pursues hegemony, the US sees China
and Russia as its biggest obstacles, For strategic
considerations, its process of easing relations with the two
countries is slow, ineffective and unsustainable. It is what,
Beijing and Moscow have learned about so many times. The
US will not allow China to grow stronger, while it will
continue to suppress Russia in regions where the latter
traditionally has influence. It still will see Russia's military
power as a major concern. But no kind of improvement of
relations will make Beijing and Moscow drop their guard
against Washington's attempts to drive a wedge between
China and Russia.
China and Russia will not forge an alliance, but their
mutual support will be strong, The strategic coordination
between the two countries has penetrated into all aspects
of international politics. The approach of the two countries
is not for the purpose of challenging any other country. But
if the US and its allies pile more pressure than normal on
either China or Russia, they will definitely witness that the
other country is standing with the oppressed country. And
the heavier the pressure, the more steadfast the support
from the other country will be.
Don't speculate as to what extent the firm relationship
between China and Russia will deepen and how long it will
last. And don't waste effort to mull a “tool with special
effects” that can drive a wedge between China and Russia
China and Russia have negotiated to resolve all territorial
issues. The economies of the two countries are highly
complementary. The potential for their official and non-
governmental collaboration is limitless. Furthermore, the
bilateral strategic cooperation has proved to be very
18
PEL Rts)
Strategic Balanc
Ayeza Fatima
helpful in strengthening each other's status in dealing with
the USand the West.
The alliance between the US and the West is maintained by
the US with its power. Once the US" strength wanes, their
alliance may be loosened. In the era when globalization
makes state-to-state relations go far beyond mere
geopolitics, in the long run, it will be difficult for the US
dnd the West to maintain their solid alliance. The greatest
Value of China-Russia relations is equality and mutual
benefit. Being partners but not pursuing alignment will
create not only flexibility, but also resilience. Such values
and principles will prove to be more vital than the
hegemonic alliance system,
When China and Russia’ stand with each other, any
hegemony will immediately show a certain guilty
conscience. Yes, the China-Russia ties are the reliable
guarantee of the global strategic balance. All countries in
the world, including the US allies, have, directly or
indirectly, benefited from the balance achieved by China
and Russia. As the “tyrant,” the US will have more scruples
and be forced to "be nice” to some small countries.
‘The comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination
between China and Russia fora new era not only belongs to
the two countries, but also to all human beings. The US
aggressive alliances with its main allies are out of step with
the 2ist-contury zeitgeist. And they need to reflect on
themselves. 6)
The writer is currently studying at UMT, LahoreBU eeu eae Nt Rud
State of Israel on the one side and the Palestine
Administration of Mahmud Abbas and Hamas on the
Cina ORS oe Mu: ACRURE MU es Nd
ceasefire, with the Palestinians emerging as deeply
wounded but victorious in this round, The responsi-
bility for losing this round of hostilities short of afull-
Pe AC Ce Mech Re uta gue Cd
and its staunch support by the Biden Administration,
rests solely with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
PO een eR
Caer ay fi
CeO SU cea
Jewish settlements replacing indigenous Palestinian:
homes in the disputed Al Quds area. His govern-
Cee aU ms ec
Ce mut ee LE
world as well, All humanitarian organizations and
OUR PR ema
RIDE eC ce Cat UU cL)
Sur)
www jworldtimes.com July 2021
Or Muzaffar Shaheen
PP 2cl-Palestine conflict is there for
‘more than seven decades, mired in
series of hostilities escalating every
year and subsequent bombardment by
Tel Aviv of Gaza Strip. Slaughtering of
men, women and children is not new to
the world. The hyper civilized world has
been a mute spectator. Incredibly new is that the
Hamas military wing, has struck back out of the
blue with full response to Tel Aviv's military action
against Palestinians, bewildering and_ giving,
sleepless nights to Israelis, All assessments and
daresay of Tel Aviv have proved wrong which the
State blames on her intelligence failures. The
renewed clashes as_ initiated by Tel Aviv at a time
when Benjamin Netanyahu was about to be charged
with fraud, maladroit, corruption and breach of
nation’s trust by a high placed investigation
committee that had gathered all necessary
witnesses and evidences against him and his wife,
Last year, the Israeli premier had to quit many
other portfolios on the charges of corruption over
the past several continuous terms of his
government. The Prime Minister's personal
reasons seemultimately to have brought the entire
region on the verge of a devastating war. Hamas
has astonished the world for having alarmingly
gamered latest rocket and guided short missile
capability that has been rendering Israel with a
population of 8 million souls horror-struck. Israel
is facing deadliest attacks for the first time since
its inception. As the reports pour in, arain of some
three thousand rockets and advanced version of
short missiles have befallen Isracl causing
destruction and loss of dozens of lives which has
not been known from any reliable source owing to
ablanketban on world media in place in Israel. The
people are forced to hide in bomb shelter centres.
Gaza has lost hundreds of human lives to
unabated diabolical israeli bombardments.
GAZA
ee
19TERNATIONAL
‘The most sophisticated and robust Iron dome anti-missile system
of Israel has been working day and night to shield Israelites from
Hamas missile attacks, only with a huge cost of millions of dollars
so far although many of these landed Israel reported to be
devastating by the Israeli print media. Assuming an entirely new
dimension in the decades-old imbroglio the world today seems 10
be manifestly divided into two blocks on this conflict for the first
time since post, 1967 Arab, Israel war: China and Russia obviously
and overtly commiserating Palestinian cause ostensibly on moral
and diplomatic grounds but observers believe that probability of
some level of logistic support to Hamas and tran-backed
Lebanese Hezbollah groups under cover from these countries
cannot be easily brushed under the carpet. Both China and Russia
urged proactively the United Nations Security Council to hold a
meeting that US got cancelled earlier but lately convened in virtual
mode without any’climacteric decision.
Understandably, Ankara, Tehran and Islamabad are awfully busy
in their diplomatic efforts in garnering Chinese and Russian
support against renewed Israeli attacks on Gaza. Not only this, OIC
foreign ministers conference was convened under the influence of
Turkey and Pakistan in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has felt the heat
that it preferred to speak up in favour of Palestine cause though in
Jow tune than to adopt silence this time. Albeit from the OIC forum
yet again the schismatic narrative from other Arabs yet again was
unfortunate. The new Muslim alignment of Istanbul, Tehran and
Islamabad is at work to persuade KSA to join it, particularly under
the influence of Beijing which is working hard to gain control of
the Arabian Peninsula from the United States, Saudis too have
reciprocated over the recent past. KSA has alrcady invested 200
million dollars in CPEC oil refinery at Gwadar and China has
‘undertaken a contract to buy Saud oll for 50 years from now,
Perhaps, bridging the gap between Riyadh and Islamabad, Anka
and also Tehran, the Chinese and Pakistani efforts have not been
‘seen yielding the results by now since US has recently stationed its
F18 fighter aircraft in Saudi Arabia to safeguard Israel; even
though the kingdom has reiterated not to recognize Israel. Tehran
20
Gaza Ceasefire
Calm before a new storm?
“The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is giving
people on both sides te to breathe. But itis not a
real step toward peace in the Middle East. The full
significance of a cease-fre can possibly be compre-
ended only by those who have experienced whatitis,
like while the fring is going on.
It seems banal to say that the prevailing truce
between israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strips agood
piece of news. Of course, it really is — forall civilians,
especialy for children. But, it could just be the calm
before a renewed storm, as the issues behind this
latest military confrontation have, by no means, been
resolved. This is particularly the case in Jerusalem,
with the looming eviction of Palestinians from their
homes in favour of Israeli settlers in the East
Jerusalem district of Sheikh Jarrah and the clashes
betwoen Palestinians and Israeli secur forces at
the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary holy site. And that
istoname|usttwo sources of tension.
‘The problems go further stil, however. This time, the
conflict occurred not only between Gaza and Israel:
There were also clashes and violence between Jews
and Arabs within Israel itself. Wil tis stop again now
that a ceasefire agreement has been signed? Or was
it simply a manifestation of al the tensions between
‘Arabs and Jews that have long simmered in Israel
and are natlikely to vanish any time soon?
Cities like Acre (known locally as Akko) were up to
now seen as a positive example of what peaceful
coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians could
look tke on a large scale. Now, however, there Was
rioting even inthis city. For example, a restaurantwas
burnt down whose owners have been working for
years tohelp people live together peacefully
‘The partis tothe confict must fak to one another at
last. That could sound lke a platitude, But the last
substantial peace negotiations between Israel and
the Palestinian leadership took place in 2008! Many
analysts believe that a two-state solution sno longer
possible because so many Jewish settlements have
‘nowbeen builtin the West Bank.
For allthese reasons, people are still woried despite
the relief provided by the ceasefire. What is there to
look forward to when even one of the leading
‘commanders of the Israeli army says he would
‘consider ita success if there were to be calm for the
next five years?
|twould seem that any hopes for peace are curently
met only with derision. At present, the best thing
children in the Middle East can get is a ceasefre. It
ccan only be hoped that it continues — at least for
while.
ww. jworldtimes.com July 2021
Facebook.com/CSSPMSCEjs covertly providing military arsenal to Hamas through
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Secret-meetings have been
unfolding between Persian foreign minister and Hamas
top brass in Syria, Russian foreign minister too had a
meeting with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrullah in
Moscow. The Syrian stronghold of opposition groups
backed by Ankara is also believed to have developed
counections with Hamas secretly. These groups are
equpped with sophisticated armour supplied by Turkey.
Turkey and Iran have been vociferously
\ocal in pursuing Moscow to install air
defence missile system at Gaza
bordering Israel so that Tel Aviv does
nothave a free hand to bomb Gaza. But
Moscow may not consider it for it is
akin o direct intervention that
may rattle pro-Israeli
bloc. US in the
current scenario
tially
appeared to
out of fray.
en's Israel policy
was supposed to be
cold as.
somewhat
compared to that of
‘Trump's hot pursuit in
supporting her nefarious
designs. Several
congressmen had urged
Biden to stop financial support
to Tel Aviv. Succumbing 10
tremendous pressure from deep state
wwrwjworldtimes.com July 2021
Jewish lobby, Washington is not any more neutral and has
Justified Israeli offensive. This was pleaded by former
President Donald Trump, blaming Biden for deliberate
neglect of Tel Aviv:
Mike Pompeo, Trump's foreign secretary, had warned
Biden that Israel might disappear if not supported. It
finally concluded in a weapons deal between US and Israel
worth 735 million dollars, which is thought to be a
warning to China and Russia to keep off the bay. US this
time is well aware of the changing multipolar world
spectrum and realizes her
neutrality would
encourage opposite response
of China and Russia. This has yet
another facet that shows how US is,
hell bent on destroying world
peace which she claims New
World Order. Cataclysms
brought about by Washing-
ton from Iraq to Syria and
Yemen to Afghanistan
were meant only to secure
apartheid Israel. Although
both China and Russia seem to have little material
stakes in joining this conflict directly, they are strongly
believed to be at the back of their front line allies to
counter US-Israel intrigues. In coming days, Israel may
plan a ground onslaught on Gaza but aghast for he
be that a ground invasion on Gaza might invite Jikadists
from Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen duly backed by
the anti US Israel bloc. ‘This wil probably push Biden~
Netanyahu due se-fire in coming
days, Notwithstanding the eall of the hour, Lack of world
intervention to de-escalate the situation might end ina
ly of monstrous proportions, and the region
may turn into another Afghanistan and Syria with perilous
races for the whole region. By
would
lo considering a ce,
conseat
The writer is a Professor at SKUAST-K.at not only China's population ts declining in the fur
demographic structure is also deteriorating with a rowing
iso show how the world’s most populous nation is going, to have to face
graphic challenges sooner than expected. China's demographic situation f
short time, moved to the forefront of Beijing's economic concerns. The 1
“These figures reveal thi
fewer young people to replace a growing number of retirees has been clear for years tut deat,
swith it has largely been kicked down the road as leaders have focused on mounting deb, ar
‘war with the US and reining in a once freewheeling private sector. Now, Beijing c
ignore the demographic shadow over long-term growth. Pension shortfalls in the c
northeastern Rust Belt have forced the central government to ask state-owned ent
‘well as wealthier and younger provinces in the south to help out with the pension poo!
Experts have warned for years that such a scenario will reduce China's productiv
health-care costs and exacerbate social tensions. But there's also 2 more hopeful po:
Faced witha potential demographic death spiral, the government might finally embark on n
humane policies to support struggling families — and help make China a more liveable
equitable place inthe process.
In China, more than most places, demographic decline has been engineered by gos
policy. Efforts to control fertility date to Mao Zedong’s fears that a soaring population
a
a steady decline in the fertility rate. Although the rate more than halved during the 1970s, 2
natalist forces in the government still argued that a rising population was along-term thr
constrain resources. Mao started China’s first family-planning programs, which c
the economy and to living standards.
In the late 1970s and earl
initiatives known as the “one-child policy” went into force. The name was a bit of a mi
over the decades, fewer than half of Chinese parents were actually subject to a strict one
quota. But even those under looser restrictions had reason to fear running afoul o:
policy. Heavy fines could ruin a family. More brutal methods, including forced sterilizations
and abortions, could traumatize entire communities.
Did it work? The government has long claimed with macabre satisfac~
tion that its policies prevented 400 million births, and “relieved the
stress on national finances.” That's a debatable point in its own right,
but China's leaders seemed to believe it for many years. By the early
2010s, however, a pronounced demographic decline — with
plummeting birth rates anda fast-ageing population — became
impossible to ignore. The government reacted by
enacting a ‘universal two-child policy,
but Chinese couples didn't respond
with the hoped-for
baby boom.
UO aL Ie
pe:| | Td
Mey CD a)
Reing population
y 1980s, this view carried the day. A set of population-c’EN
Chinese maintand's population
Beta
‘hese days, even the most patriotic news sites concede
that China's population will soon go into decline, if it
hasnt already. And, unlike a decade. ago, high-level
support now exists to radically rethink the government's
approach to the issue. In May, even as the census results
languished, researchers at the People’s Bank of China
published data showing an alarming workforce decline in,
the near future, and advocated for abolishing population,
controlsaltogether.
Such a reversal would've seemed far-fetched even five
years ago. Today, it's all but inevitable. If demographic
decline is an existential threat — as the government now
seems to think — there's no remaining rationale for
discouraging big families. The problem is that such a
reform is decades too late. Even if enacted tomorrow, it
would be unlikely to significantly impede China's
Population decline, let alone reverse it.
Sowhat else could be done?
China's Three-child Policy
One option is for officials to continue
their recent quest to erect a kind of
coercive pro-natalism, in which
couples are strongly discouraged
from divorcing and women are
shamed into staying home, Another
possibility is that China could address
the range of additional factors: that
inhibit families from having children,
including the rising cost of raising
them in cities and the pervasive
discrimination that pregnant women
‘and mothers face in the workplace.
‘A practical government that's serious
about reversing demographic decline
should strongly favour the latter
option. A good first step would be to
invest in building a universal child-care system to
support working parents, and to offer tuition subsidies to
those struggling to send their children to good urban
schools. (Singapore offers one useful model.) Getting
serious about workplace discrimination laws that could
assure working women that their careers won't be
wrecked by pregnancy would also help. Neither change
‘would be easy, but both would be more effective than the
status quo.
For policymakers, the goal should be making Chinaa more
family-friendly country, and enhancing overall welfare in
the process. For China's citizens, that would offer a hint of,
abetter future evenin the midst of alooming decline. w)
The writer is a member of staff.
1 Sayears ahr abandoning the “one-chid polio’ of1979, China's CommunistParty has now ntroduceda “tree cildpoly”. The moveisto“improve
Chinas population structure, actively respond to the ageing population, and preserve the county's human resource advantages,” the party's
r0ssidon May 31. The once-in-adecade population census, released on May 11, may have prompted the latest change, recording 12millon
Sin 2020, the lowest since 1961. The census said there were 264 milion in the 60 and over age group, up 5.44% since 2010 and accounting for
{ 1870% othe population Atr the one-child poli, Chine’ ety rat fel rom 2.75 197910169 in 208. Recent announcementis as much an
igement as may ever come of te uninlended consequences of deeply intrusive family planning measures, goingback even before 1973, 0
Tale, longer, fewer campaign, whch ts, ironical, folowed his exhortations tohave more chirentobudthe worsorce. The party ofcialy
{ 5ldetends the one-chid poiey—thalireverted an addtional 300 milion births Ye, the urgency of recent measures suggests oberwise, as China
‘F2ppes wihboth an ageing and deeply gender-imbalanced population, and demographers'worsl fears of county's getting cd betore they getrich
[213 China alowed couples have a second chi ier parent was an only hi, wih te to chile poiyinroduedin 2016, Expaing hy
"measures dd not boost bith rales, economists Jin Zhangfeng, Pan Shiyuan, and Zheng Zhije wrote last year that the two-chid polity
runt increase) the numberof second-childbiths" among those ‘Tess sensitive to chi eating ‘costs’ but “substantially decreasefd] the
| mers chid births trouing it ising costs “Oher developing counts, even witout hn strge chit Anvtaton ples Rane Ae
{ ptleced decins hey argued, suggesting “plates shoud gv pot to reducing he chilean cst bre by prospacive poets
tre 89 lng or even bashing bith quotas”. Th est announcement acknowledge ase broad suc perieTs pledsing
4 way 2 amiles spending on education. tis, however, by no means an abandoning of China’ arly planing policies. The entrenched — and
| pee caved — family planning bureaucracy remains in lace, nd tis satement underined thal the "curent revaré and asians system and
{og
Doles" for those folowing rues continue. Even leaving aside the song maral argument against itusive family planning —
thas meantforced abortions sterisations, and other abuses, some of which are sil being reported in pats suchas the Muslm-majonty
gion — China's experience isa reminder ofthe unintended socal and economic consequences of stte-ed demographic inerventons
23
~ www jwortdtimes.com July 2021
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