Demand Forecasting

Strategically ''Hey Jute'' always follows short-term forecasting to understand consumer demand.
Our operation team concentrates on customers behaving patterns throughout the year. Our
business's main USP (Unique Selling Point) is promoting jute usage in daily life who are interested
in ART and Music-related activities. Usually, the young generation pays more attention to concerts
and their favorite music bands. The central peak time of music concerts in Bangladesh is the winter
season. In the real-life case scenario, the demand remains very high in these four months: October,
November, December, and January. To identify the real demand of consumers,'' Hey Jute'' follows
Quantitative forecasting method.

Quantitative Forecasting:

To Identify consumer’s
actual Demand, “Hey
Jute’’ values more about
“Weighted Moving
Average’’ & “Naïve”
methods for conducting
Quantitative
Forecasting.
For the year 2021, Hey jute started its forecasting before the
month of January. Our team put 12 different
weights to identify the actual demand of
consumers. The following section represents
the year of 2021’s forecasted data and actual demand which
also giving an alert to minimize some particular errors.

Period Month Actual Forecasted Demand Error

Demand
1 January 204 - -
2 February 105 - -
3 March 97 - -
4 April 94 - -
5 May 80 108.1 28.1
Weight
6 June 75 90.1 15.1 10%
20%
7 July 64 82.5 18.5
30%
8 August 60 73.5 13.5 40%
 9 September 129 66.2 -62.8
10 October 235 89.9 -145.1
11 November 306 151.1 -154.9
12 December 393 224.7 -168.3

Actual Demand is much higher than the forecasted demand. That means we might face
shortage to fulfill consumers wants. It could create bad images about our organization.
That’s why need to adopt another forecasted model to check which one is appropriate for
our business.

Weighted Moving Average

250 450
400
200 350
300
150
250
200
100
150

50 100
50
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Forcasted Demand Actual Demand

Diagram: Graphical representation of Weighted Moving Average method

Naive Forecasting: The best thing about the Naive forecasting method is it gives a closer number
to the exact consumer's demand. We need to maintain some inventory costs, but we can actually
fulfill our customer's demands. Hopefully, It will increase our organization's image and customer
satisfaction.

Naïve Forecasting method is more appropriate to predict

customer’s annual demand.
Diagram: Graphical representation of Naïve Forecasting method