Professional Documents
Culture Documents
0.00%
218,108.89 44.00%
676.84 0.14%
29,896.10 6.03%
39,160.34 7.90%
287,842.17 58.07%
61,827.40 12.47%
1,731.06 0.35%
2,849.89 0.57%
37,287.35 7.52%
405,626.22 81.83%
0.00%
5,083.77 1.03% 5,083.77 5,083.77 5,083.77
35,180.66 7.10% 38,698.73 42,568.60 46,825.46
15,396.10 3.11% 16165.905 17297.5184 18508.3446
5,103.42 1.03%
1,702.09 0.34% 1957.4035 2251.01403 2588.66613
27,609.79 5.57% 27,609.79 27,609.79 27,609.79
90,075.83 18.17% 89,515.59 94,810.69 100,616.03
495,702.05 100.00%
-3,094.73 -0.69%
-3372.151 -3608.201 -3860.775
15,852.07 3.51% 19269.43 20618.29 22061.57
5,836.73 1.29% 6262.566 6700.945 7170.011
0 0.00% 0 0 0
24,026.22 5.32% 26428.84 29071.73 31978.9
1,629.84 0.36% 1589.728 1701.009 1820.08
43,536.07 9.64% 48173.58 51545.73 55153.93
376,604.16 83.40% 412540.3 448776.1 488098.9
52,929.90 11.72%
35088.64 30186.89 24391.5
-1,591.01 -0.35% 481.7358 515.4573 551.5393
51,338.89 11.37% 34606.9 29671.43 23839.96
0.00%
15,912.06 3.52% 12112.42 10385 8343.986
0 0.00% 0 0 0
5,006.28 1.11% 5299.094 5670.031 6066.933
-38.12 -0.01% 0 0 0
20,880.21 4.62% 17411.51 16055.03 14410.92
30,458.67 6.75%
17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
0 0.00% 0 0 0
30,458.67 6.75% 17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
30,458.67 6.75% 17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
Significant Assumptions
Because of the HPCL acquisition in 2017, all the data has been forecasted on the basis of financial information of preceding 3 y
1. Sales
Sales is a function of volume and price. So lets estimate the future value of both the factors to calculate the growth in sales.
Oil prices seem to be recovering from the major dip in 2016 and are expected to move up gradually. Sanctions
on Iran being reimposed by USA may cause a hit to the supply. Also, oil production by USA may compensate for
the short supply. However, the mandate by IMO on decrease in sulphur content in oil from 3.5 to 0.5% shall increase
the crude demand(price of low sulphur fuel is $250 per ton more). This coupled with the supply cuts from OPEC is expected to
the prices up to at least 75 on a conservative basis. However the trade tensions between US and China may lead to
the usual drip of 5-7% in the prices and therefore a prudent price estimate of USD 70 to 73 has been assumed for
the next 3 years. Due to the oscillating trend of oil prices, we assume the average price for the year to be USD 70/bbl.
For FY19, Crude volume sold for ONGC alone was 5% lower compared to FY 18 at 22.4mmt, while gas sold
was 5% higher at 20.5bcm. The natural gas sales has shown an upward trend since 2016 while
oil sales has more or less been constant or slightly decreasing. Thus we can expect the net sales volume to go
up by at least 5% in FY 20 and further more in FY 21 and 22. We can assume these figures to be 7% for both FY 21 and 22.
In FY 19 the net realization was USD 68.9/bbl. Assuming a price of USD 70/bbl, a rise in sales on account of oil prices
is expected to be around 1.6% in FY 20.
3. Materials consumed
Many oil fields are at maturity stage which will affect oil production. However, this is expected to
be partially offset by growth in production due to new acquisitions such as Vankorneft in Russia(2016) and Lower Zakum
Concession in UAE(2018). Based on past trend a fall in production is expected to the extent of 2%.
HPCL is expected to shutdown some units of refineries for 30-45 days for upgradation to comply with BS VI standards. This wil
the intake of crude leading to a very slight decrease in production and an increase in purchase of finished goods to some exten
demand. This will not affect the production of crude by ONGC. MRPL is also expected to close down some units for a month.
As reported by the company the production will not be hampered majorly. Still a fall of 0.5% overall has been considered.
Gas production has been consistently on the rise by more than 5%. This is expected to continue in future as well
Also, the demand for natural gas has been on the rise as the country has now started to
consider the impact on environment and has been switching from gas to oil.
KG-DWN98/2 basin is also expected to boost gas production in future years
The overall growth is expected to increase in the next 3 years as many as 15 projects which are under construction are expect
5. Purchases
Purchases have shown an increasing trend on account of rising oil prices. This trend is expected to continue based on our
assumption of increase in oil prices. Purchases have been calculated as a percentage of sales.
6. Other expenses
Other income taken at an average of 2.5% of sales revenue
All other expenses have been taken at an average basis as a percentage of sales
7. Finance expenses
The company has borrowed 35000 crores to part finance the acquisition of 51.11% stake in HPCL. The company has
been rolling over this debt since FY 2017. In the light of increased capex on account of upgradation of refineries and
no realistic prospects of repayment, it has been assumed that the debt shall be carried forward to the following years as well.
It would be reasonable to assume that depreciation in FY 20 would increase by less than 12% over the preceding year because
the diminishing effect of WDV method and retirement and disposal of fixed assets. 10% should be an appropriate measure.
The same growth rate has been assumed for the following years.
9. Tax rate
The effective tax rate for the company in FY 19 was 34.94%.
The corporate tax rate for FY 20 is 35% and is assumed to be same for the next 2 years.
ually. Sanctions
compensate for
to 0.5% shall increase
y cuts from OPEC is expected to increase the oil demand and push
d China may lead to
s been assumed for
year to be USD 70/bbl.
s volume to go
7% for both FY 21 and 22.
e in future as well
df SS MS F Significance F
1.00 0.08 0.08 326.04 0.00
1216.00 0.31 0.00
1217.00 0.40
Rm 10.62%
Rf 6.62%
Beta 0.98
404,637.54