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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

Consolidated Balance Sheet in Rs. Cr.


FY 17 FY 18
12 mths 12 mths
EQUITIES AND LIABILITIES
SHAREHOLDER'S FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 6,416.63 1.44% 6,416.63 1.39%
Total Share Capital 6,416.63 1.44% 6,416.63 1.39%
Reserves and Surplus 187,968.59 42.20% 197,602.30 42.94%
Total Reserves and Surplus 187,968.59 42.20% 197,602.30 42.94%
Total Shareholders Funds 194,385.22 43.64% 204,018.94 44.33%
Minority Interest 13,291.96 2.98% 15,606.00 3.39%
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES 0.00% 0.00%
Long Term Borrowings 52,772.35 11.85% 55,024.90 11.96%
Deferred Tax Liabilities [Net] 36,762.98 8.25% 41,505.94 9.02%
Other Long Term Liabilities 1,041.05 0.23% 1,913.30 0.42%
Long Term Provisions 23,114.63 5.19% 25,200.15 5.48%
Total Non-Current Liabilities 113,691.00 25.53% 123,644.29 26.87%
CURRENT LIABILITIES 0.00% 0.00%
Short Term Borrowings 21,627.44 4.86% 46,221.15 10.04%
Trade Payables 24,013.79 5.39% 26,484.74 5.75%
Other Current Liabilities 73,436.87 16.49% 39,849.91 8.66%
Short Term Provisions 4,951.20 1.11% 4,409.91 0.96%
Total Current Liabilities 124,029.29 27.85% 116,965.71 25.41%
Total Capital And Liabilities 445,397.48 100.00% 460,234.94 100.00%
ASSETS 0.00% 0.00%

NON-CURRENT ASSETS 0.00% 0.00%

Tangible Assets 196,360.15 44.09% 211,229.70 45.90%


Intangible Assets 574.91 0.13% 625.44 0.14%
Capital Work-In-Progress 21,373.29 4.80% 21,381.34 4.65%
Intangible Assets Under Development 37,669.19 8.46% 40,130.53 8.72%
Fixed Assets 255,977.54 57.47% 273,367.01 59.40%
Non-Current Investments 62,002.60 13.92% 62,335.23 13.54%
Deferred Tax Assets [Net] 1,545.81 0.35% 1,698.99 0.37%
Long Term Loans And Advances 2,154.59 0.48% 2,091.13 0.45%
Other Non-Current Assets 30,304.14 6.80% 34,111.07 7.41%
Total Non-Current Assets 366,175.05 82.21% 387,805.97 84.26%
CURRENT ASSETS 0.00% 0.00%
Current Investments 8,743.07 1.96% 4,999.38 1.09%
Inventories 29,881.73 6.71% 30,557.12 6.64%
Trade Receivables 12,547.12 2.82% 13,899.17 3.02%
Cash And Cash Equivalents 13,212.64 2.97% 5,062.84 1.10%
Short Term Loans And Advances 992.71 0.22% 1,258.30 0.27%
OtherCurrentAssets 13,845.16 3.11% 16,652.16 3.62%
Total Current Assets 79,222.43 17.79% 72,428.97 15.74%
Total Assets 445,397.48 100.00% 460,234.94 100.00%

Working capital -3,378.43


Change
FY 19 FY 20E FY 21E FY 22E
12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths

6,290.15 1.27% 6,290.15 6,290.15 6,290.15


6,290.15 1.27% 6,290.15 6,290.15 6,290.15
211,850.61 42.74% 229,046.00 242,662.40 252,091.44
211,850.61 42.74% 229,046.00 242,662.40 252,091.44
218,140.76 44.01% 235,336.15 248,952.55 258,381.59
18,106.21 3.65% 18,106.21 18,106.21 18,106.21
0.00%
53,144.06 10.72% 53,144.06 53,144.06 53,144.06
47,366.80 9.56% 47,366.80 47,366.80 47,366.80
2,062.78 0.42% 2,062.78 2,062.78 2,062.78
27,849.86 5.62% 27,849.86 27,849.86 27,849.86
130,423.50 26.31%
0.00%
48,962.30 9.88% 50,000.00 50,000.00 50,000.00
32,477.50 6.55% 37,349.13 41,084.04 45,192.44
43,272.54 8.73% 43,272.54 43,272.54 43,272.54
4,319.23 0.87% 4,319.23 4,319.23 4,319.23
129,031.58 26.03% 134,940.90 138,675.81 142,784.21
495,702.05 100.00%
0.00%

0.00%

218,108.89 44.00%
676.84 0.14%
29,896.10 6.03%
39,160.34 7.90%
287,842.17 58.07%
61,827.40 12.47%
1,731.06 0.35%
2,849.89 0.57%
37,287.35 7.52%
405,626.22 81.83%
0.00%
5,083.77 1.03% 5,083.77 5,083.77 5,083.77
35,180.66 7.10% 38,698.73 42,568.60 46,825.46
15,396.10 3.11% 16165.905 17297.5184 18508.3446
5,103.42 1.03%
1,702.09 0.34% 1957.4035 2251.01403 2588.66613
27,609.79 5.57% 27,609.79 27,609.79 27,609.79
90,075.83 18.17% 89,515.59 94,810.69 100,616.03
495,702.05 100.00%

4,903.13 4,574.70 6,134.88 7,831.82


8,281.56 -328.43 1,560.18 1,696.93
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
Consolidated Profit & Loss account in Rs. Cr.
Note FY 17 Common FY 18 Common
no. 12 mths Base 12 mths Base
INCOME
Revenue From Operations [Gross] 1 323,274.93 100.00% 360,642.85 100.00%
Less: Excise/Sevice Tax/Other Levies 43,160.11 13.35% 39,540.67 10.96%
Revenue From Operations [Net] 280,114.82 86.65% 321,102.18 89.04%
Other Operating Revenues 2,391.29 0.74% 1,603.59 0.44%
Total Operating Revenues 282,506.12 87.39% 322,705.77 89.48%
Other Income 9,323.17 2.88% 7,468.13 2.07%
Total Revenue 291,829.29 90.27% 330,173.90 91.55%
EXPENSES 0.00% 0.00%
Cost Of Materials Consumed 3 71,178.46 22.02% 80,609.11 22.35%
Purchase Of Stock-In Trade 5 104,198.27 32.23% 121,689.40 33.74%
Operating And Direct Expenses 3,950.80 1.22% 11,616.07 3.22%
Changes In Inventories Of FG,WIP And Stock-In
-4,784.69 -1.48% -8.17 0.00%
Trade
Employee Benefit Expenses 15,128.16 4.68% 14,970.72 4.15%
Finance Costs 7 3,591.11 1.11% 4,999.04 1.39%
Provsions and Contingencies 5,219.56 1.61% 0 0.00%
Depreciation And Amortisation Expenses 8 20,219.20 6.25% 23,111.91 6.41%
Miscellaneous Expenses Written Off 335.26 0.10% 1,585.80 0.44%
Other Expenses 34,476.62 10.66% 35,353.77 9.80%
Total Expenses 253,512.75 78.42% 293,927.65 81.50%
Profit/Loss Before Exceptional,
38,316.54 11.85% 36,246.25 10.05%
ExtraOrdinary Items And Tax
Exceptional Items 591.01 0.18% 248.12 0.07%
Profit/Loss Before Tax 38,907.55 12.04% 36,494.37 10.12%
Tax Expenses-Continued Operations 0.00% 0.00%
Current Tax 8,808.32 2.72% 10,476.57 2.90%
Less: MAT Credit Entitlement 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
Deferred Tax 4,338.74 1.34% 3,061.42 0.85%
Tax For Earlier Years -598.64 -0.19% -398.47 -0.11%
Total Tax Expenses 12,548.42 3.88% 13,139.52 3.64%
Profit/Loss After Tax And Before
26,359.13 8.15% 23,354.85 6.48%
ExtraOrdinary Items
Prior Period Items 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
Profit/Loss From Continuing Operations 26,359.13 8.15% 23,354.85 6.48%
Profit/Loss For The Period 26,359.13 8.15% 23,354.85 6.48%
FY 19 Common FY 20E FY 21E FY 22E
12 mths Base 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths

451,570.88 100.00% 481735.8 515457.3 551539.3


32,075.28 7.10% 48173.58 51545.73 55153.93
419,495.60 92.90% 433562.2 463911.6 496385.4
1,889.69 0.42% 2023.29 2164.921 2316.465
421,385.29 93.32% 435585.5 466076.5 498701.9
8,148.76 1.80% 12043.4 12886.43 13788.48
429,534.05 95.12% 447628.9 478962.9 512490.3
0.00%
110,072.26 24.38% 116676.6 123677.2 131097.8
165,342.24 36.61% 183059.6 203605.6 226131.1
13,403.46 2.97% 14452.07 15463.72 16546.18

-3,094.73 -0.69%
-3372.151 -3608.201 -3860.775
15,852.07 3.51% 19269.43 20618.29 22061.57
5,836.73 1.29% 6262.566 6700.945 7170.011
0 0.00% 0 0 0
24,026.22 5.32% 26428.84 29071.73 31978.9
1,629.84 0.36% 1589.728 1701.009 1820.08
43,536.07 9.64% 48173.58 51545.73 55153.93
376,604.16 83.40% 412540.3 448776.1 488098.9

52,929.90 11.72%
35088.64 30186.89 24391.5
-1,591.01 -0.35% 481.7358 515.4573 551.5393
51,338.89 11.37% 34606.9 29671.43 23839.96
0.00%
15,912.06 3.52% 12112.42 10385 8343.986
0 0.00% 0 0 0
5,006.28 1.11% 5299.094 5670.031 6066.933
-38.12 -0.01% 0 0 0
20,880.21 4.62% 17411.51 16055.03 14410.92
30,458.67 6.75%
17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
0 0.00% 0 0 0
30,458.67 6.75% 17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
30,458.67 6.75% 17195.39 13616.4 9429.041
Significant Assumptions
Because of the HPCL acquisition in 2017, all the data has been forecasted on the basis of financial information of preceding 3 y

1. Sales
Sales is a function of volume and price. So lets estimate the future value of both the factors to calculate the growth in sales.

Oil prices seem to be recovering from the major dip in 2016 and are expected to move up gradually. Sanctions
on Iran being reimposed by USA may cause a hit to the supply. Also, oil production by USA may compensate for
the short supply. However, the mandate by IMO on decrease in sulphur content in oil from 3.5 to 0.5% shall increase
the crude demand(price of low sulphur fuel is $250 per ton more). This coupled with the supply cuts from OPEC is expected to
the prices up to at least 75 on a conservative basis. However the trade tensions between US and China may lead to
the usual drip of 5-7% in the prices and therefore a prudent price estimate of USD 70 to 73 has been assumed for
the next 3 years. Due to the oscillating trend of oil prices, we assume the average price for the year to be USD 70/bbl.

For FY19, Crude volume sold for ONGC alone was 5% lower compared to FY 18 at 22.4mmt, while gas sold
was 5% higher at 20.5bcm. The natural gas sales has shown an upward trend since 2016 while
oil sales has more or less been constant or slightly decreasing. Thus we can expect the net sales volume to go
up by at least 5% in FY 20 and further more in FY 21 and 22. We can assume these figures to be 7% for both FY 21 and 22.

In FY 19 the net realization was USD 68.9/bbl. Assuming a price of USD 70/bbl, a rise in sales on account of oil prices
is expected to be around 1.6% in FY 20.

2. Oil production(MMT) Gas production(BCM)


2017 38.3 2017 23.3
2018 40.4 2018 24.5
2019 39.1 2019 25.8

3. Materials consumed
Many oil fields are at maturity stage which will affect oil production. However, this is expected to
be partially offset by growth in production due to new acquisitions such as Vankorneft in Russia(2016) and Lower Zakum
Concession in UAE(2018). Based on past trend a fall in production is expected to the extent of 2%.

HPCL is expected to shutdown some units of refineries for 30-45 days for upgradation to comply with BS VI standards. This wil
the intake of crude leading to a very slight decrease in production and an increase in purchase of finished goods to some exten
demand. This will not affect the production of crude by ONGC. MRPL is also expected to close down some units for a month.
As reported by the company the production will not be hampered majorly. Still a fall of 0.5% overall has been considered.

Gas production has been consistently on the rise by more than 5%. This is expected to continue in future as well
Also, the demand for natural gas has been on the rise as the country has now started to
consider the impact on environment and has been switching from gas to oil.
KG-DWN98/2 basin is also expected to boost gas production in future years

The overall growth is expected to increase in the next 3 years as many as 15 projects which are under construction are expect

Keeping all of this into account a growth rate of 6% is reasonable.


4. HPCL GRM
Drop in GRM of HPCL from 7.2 to 5.1 from 2018 to 2019 signifies the poor refining environment. However further drop maybe
from sale of low sulphur fuels as the company has already started producing low sulphur fuels.

5. Purchases
Purchases have shown an increasing trend on account of rising oil prices. This trend is expected to continue based on our
assumption of increase in oil prices. Purchases have been calculated as a percentage of sales.

6. Other expenses
Other income taken at an average of 2.5% of sales revenue
All other expenses have been taken at an average basis as a percentage of sales

7. Finance expenses
The company has borrowed 35000 crores to part finance the acquisition of 51.11% stake in HPCL. The company has
been rolling over this debt since FY 2017. In the light of increased capex on account of upgradation of refineries and
no realistic prospects of repayment, it has been assumed that the debt shall be carried forward to the following years as well.

8. Depreciation (in crores)


Capex in FY 19 29449
Expected Capex in FY 20 32921
Increase in % 12%

It would be reasonable to assume that depreciation in FY 20 would increase by less than 12% over the preceding year because
the diminishing effect of WDV method and retirement and disposal of fixed assets. 10% should be an appropriate measure.
The same growth rate has been assumed for the following years.

9. Tax rate
The effective tax rate for the company in FY 19 was 34.94%.
The corporate tax rate for FY 20 is 35% and is assumed to be same for the next 2 years.

10. Short term borrowings


Short term borrowings has been increased to 50000. This increase is almost at par with change in capex
ial information of preceding 3 years to facilitate a more meaningful comparison of data.

calculate the growth in sales.

ually. Sanctions
compensate for
to 0.5% shall increase
y cuts from OPEC is expected to increase the oil demand and push
d China may lead to
s been assumed for
year to be USD 70/bbl.

hile gas sold

s volume to go
7% for both FY 21 and 22.

n account of oil prices

a(2016) and Lower Zakum

y with BS VI standards. This will affect


of finished goods to some extent to meet the
down some units for a month.
verall has been considered.

e in future as well

under construction are expected to be completed in the next 3 years.


t. However further drop maybe ignored on account of increased margins

d to continue based on our

CL. The company has


tion of refineries and
to the following years as well.

over the preceding year because of


be an appropriate measure.
Date NIFTY Change ONGC Change
8/18/2014 7874.25 231.1559
8/19/2014 7897.5 0.002948 233.2462 0.009002
8/20/2014 7875.3 -0.002815 227.244 -0.02607
8/21/2014 7891.1 0.002004 228.2618 0.004469
8/22/2014 7913.2 0.002797 228.8785 0.002698
8/25/2014 7906.3 -0.000872 229.7893 0.003971 SUMMARY OUTPUT
8/26/2014 7904.75 -0.000196 224.0284 -0.02539
8/27/2014 7936.05 0.003952 229.4677 0.02399 Regression Statistics
8/28/2014 7954.35 0.002303 233.1393 0.015874 Multiple R
9/1/2014 8027.7 0.009179 235.5776 0.010404 R Square
9/2/2014 8083.05 0.006871 238.2579 0.011313 Adjusted R Square
9/3/2014 8114.6 0.003896 234.1578 -0.017358 Standard Error
9/4/2014 8095.95 -0.002301 234.4794 0.001372 Observations
9/5/2014 8086.85 -0.001125 237.7217 0.013733
9/8/2014 8173.9 0.010707 243.9384 0.025815 ANOVA
9/9/2014 8152.95 -0.002566 240.857 -0.012712
9/10/2014 8094.1 -0.007244 238.7129 -0.008942 Regression
9/11/2014 8085.7 -0.001038 230.3853 -0.035509 Residual
9/12/2014 8105.5 0.002446 229.9298 -0.001979 Total
9/15/2014 8042 -0.007865 225.7459 -0.018364
9/16/2014 7932.9 -0.013659 219.2551 -0.029174
9/17/2014 7975.5 0.005356 218.6115 -0.00294 Intercept
9/18/2014 8114.75 0.017309 222.0173 0.015459 X Variable 1
9/19/2014 8121.45 0.000825 216.707 -0.024209
9/22/2014 8146.3 0.003055 224.8069 0.036696
9/23/2014 8017.55 -0.015931 218.4771 -0.028561
9/24/2014 8002.4 -0.001891 221.9103 0.015592
9/25/2014 7911.85 -0.01138 214.7493 -0.032802
9/26/2014 7968.85 0.007179 221.0253 0.028806
9/29/2014 7958.9 -0.001249 218.5849 -0.011103
9/30/2014 7964.8 0.000741 219.1481 0.002573
10/1/2014 7945.55 -0.00242 216.0906 -0.01405
10/7/2014 7852.4 -0.011793 212.8183 -0.015259
10/8/2014 7842.7 -0.001236 217.8608 0.023418
10/9/2014 7960.55 0.014915 220.7034 0.012963
10/10/2014 7859.95 -0.012718 216.8148 -0.017776
10/13/2014 7884.25 0.003087 218.1826 0.006289
10/14/2014 7864 -0.002572 215.7149 -0.011375
10/16/2014 7748.2 -0.014835 213.0057 -0.012638
10/17/2014 7779.7 0.004057 213.0057 0
10/20/2014 7879.4 0.012734 224.753 0.053683
10/21/2014 7927.75 0.006118 218.8528 -0.026603
10/22/2014 7995.9 0.00856 214.2665 -0.021179
10/27/2014 7991.7 -0.000525 211.6918 -0.012089
10/28/2014 8027.6 0.004482 210.1092 -0.007504
10/29/2014 8090.45 0.007799 210.6998 0.002807
10/30/2014 8169.2 0.009687 212.362 0.007858
10/31/2014 8322.2 0.018556 217.3241 0.023097
11/3/2014 8324.15 0.000234 217.0022 -0.001482
11/5/2014 8338.3 0.001698 216.4929 -0.00235
11/7/2014 8337 -0.000156 219.7379 0.014878
11/10/2014 8344.25 0.000869 211.4504 -0.038445
11/11/2014 8362.65 0.002203 211.7988 0.001646
11/12/2014 8383.3 0.002466 211.1552 -0.003044
11/13/2014 8357.85 -0.00304 206.9446 -0.020142
11/14/2014 8389.9 0.003827 210.9411 0.019128
11/17/2014 8430.75 0.004857 212.6573 0.008103
11/18/2014 8425.9 -0.000575 209.5459 -0.014739
11/19/2014 8382.3 -0.005188 206.0596 -0.016778
11/20/2014 8401.9 0.002336 206.9181 0.004157
11/21/2014 8477.35 0.00894 205.6034 -0.006374
11/24/2014 8530.15 0.006209 204.316 -0.006281
11/25/2014 8463.1 -0.007892 207.293 0.014466
11/26/2014 8475.75 0.001494 206.9986 -0.001422
11/27/2014 8494.2 0.002174 205.0675 -0.009373
11/28/2014 8588.25 0.011011 203.5114 -0.007617
12/1/2014 8555.9 -0.003774 195.4927 -0.040199
12/2/2014 8524.7 -0.003653 193.3734 -0.0109
12/3/2014 8537.65 0.001518 199.247 0.029922
12/4/2014 8564.4 0.003128 198.8986 -0.00175
12/5/2014 8538.3 -0.003052 195.9481 -0.014945
12/8/2014 8438.25 -0.011787 197.5574 0.008179
12/9/2014 8340.7 -0.011628 188.8676 -0.044983
12/10/2014 8355.65 0.001791 193.6952 0.02524
12/11/2014 8292.9 -0.007538 187.4466 -0.032792
12/12/2014 8224.1 -0.008331 180.8215 -0.035984
12/15/2014 8219.6 -0.000547 184.0134 0.017498
12/16/2014 8067.6 -0.018665 184.0134 0
12/17/2014 8029.8 -0.004696 188.0992 0.021961
12/18/2014 8159.3 0.015999 189.1686 0.005669
12/19/2014 8225.2 0.008044 191.6363 0.012961
12/22/2014 8324 0.01194 196.0783 0.022915
12/23/2014 8267 -0.006871 193.0619 -0.015503
12/24/2014 8174.1 -0.011301 188.647 -0.023133
12/26/2014 8200.7 0.003249 188.8938 0.001307
12/29/2014 8246.3 0.005545 190.2379 0.007091
12/30/2014 8248.25 0.000236 187.3589 -0.01525
12/31/2014 8282.7 0.004168 187.1943 -0.000879
1/2/2015 8395.45 0.013521 191.4989 0.022735
1/5/2015 8378.4 -0.002033 193.6648 0.011247
1/6/2015 8127.35 -0.030422 182.6972 -0.058299
1/7/2015 8102.1 -0.003112 185.3846 0.014602
1/8/2015 8234.6 0.016221 187.4411 0.011032
1/9/2015 8284.5 0.006042 192.4861 0.026559
1/12/2015 8323 0.004636 190.6764 -0.009446
1/13/2015 8299.4 -0.002839 186.426 -0.022543
1/14/2015 8277.55 -0.002636 188.675 0.011992
1/15/2015 8494.15 0.025831 190.0183 0.007094
1/16/2015 8513.8 0.002311 190.3473 0.00173
1/19/2015 8550.7 0.004325 190.567 0.001153
1/20/2015 8695.6 0.016804 192.1019 0.008022
1/21/2015 8729.5 0.003891 189.7715 -0.012205
1/22/2015 8761.4 0.003648 193.5283 0.019603
1/23/2015 8835.6 0.008433 191.2793 -0.011689
1/27/2015 8910.5 0.008441 192.0748 0.00415
1/28/2015 8914.3 0.000426 194.0761 0.010366
1/29/2015 8952.35 0.004259 192.9796 -0.005666
1/30/2015 8808.9 -0.016153 192.6777 -0.001566
2/2/2015 8797.4 -0.001306 191.8551 -0.004278
2/3/2015 8756.55 -0.004654 197.1197 0.027071
2/4/2015 8723.7 -0.003758 202.1103 0.025003
2/5/2015 8711.7 -0.001377 195.5848 -0.03282
2/6/2015 8661.05 -0.005831 192.4861 -0.01597
2/9/2015 8526.35 -0.015675 195.4202 0.015129
2/10/2015 8565.55 0.004587 194.4874 -0.004785
2/11/2015 8627.4 0.007195 189.1686 -0.027729
2/12/2015 8711.55 0.009706 189.9911 0.004339
2/13/2015 8805.5 0.010727 186.2072 -0.020117
2/16/2015 8809.35 0.000437 186.7008 0.002647
2/18/2015 8869.1 0.00676 182.3954 -0.023331
2/19/2015 8895.3 0.00295 182.8618 0.002554
2/20/2015 8833.6 -0.00696 181.3539 -0.00828
2/23/2015 8754.95 -0.008943 178.1458 -0.017848
2/24/2015 8762.1 0.000816 172.771 -0.030635
2/25/2015 8767.25 0.000588 173.9227 0.006644
2/26/2015 8683.85 -0.009558 175.1294 0.006914
2/27/2015 8844.6 0.018342 178.0907 0.016768
3/2/2015 8956.75 0.0126 175.5135 -0.014577
3/3/2015 8996.25 0.0044 175.7603 0.001405
3/4/2015 8922.65 -0.008215 175.7875 0.000155
3/5/2015 8937.75 0.001691 175.4585 -0.001873
3/9/2015 8756.75 -0.020459 173.2926 -0.012421
3/10/2015 8712.05 -0.005118 172.4149 -0.005078
3/11/2015 8699.95 -0.00139 169.7274 -0.01571
3/12/2015 8776 0.008703 171.2081 0.008686
3/13/2015 8647.75 -0.014722 172.1409 0.005434
3/16/2015 8633.15 -0.00169 171.0987 -0.006073
3/17/2015 8723.3 0.010388 172.3054 0.007028
3/18/2015 8685.9 -0.004297 169.5629 -0.016044
3/19/2015 8634.65 -0.005918 171.0436 0.008694
3/20/2015 8570.9 -0.00741 170.7426 -0.001762
3/23/2015 8550.9 -0.002336 172.4149 0.009747
3/24/2015 8542.95 -0.00093 175.2099 0.016081
3/25/2015 8530.8 -0.001423 173.1134 -0.012038
3/26/2015 8342.15 -0.022362 168.6135 -0.026338
3/27/2015 8341.4 -8.99E-05 170.4861 0.011045
3/30/2015 8492.3 0.017929 176.2162 0.033058
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4/1/2015 8586.25 0.011155 171.3247 0.000328
4/6/2015 8659.9 0.008541 177.3626 0.034636
4/7/2015 8660.3 4.612E-05 178.3412 0.005502
4/8/2015 8714.4 0.006228 174.9868 -0.018988
4/9/2015 8778.3 0.007306 173.3935 -0.009147
4/10/2015 8780.35 0.000233 173.1696 -0.001292
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4/17/2015 8606 -0.011633 184.4906 0.007148
4/20/2015 8448.1 -0.018518 179.906 -0.025164
4/21/2015 8377.75 -0.008362 179.0959 -0.004513
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4/23/2015 8398.3 -0.003732 172.1633 -0.014027
4/24/2015 8305.25 -0.011141 177.1387 0.028489
4/27/2015 8213.8 -0.011072 172.9457 -0.023955
4/28/2015 8285.6 0.008703 171.9394 -0.005836
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4/30/2015 8181.5 -0.007094 169.9553 -0.007536
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5/7/2015 8057.3 -0.004915 178.9282 -0.02423
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5/11/2015 8325.25 0.016196 178.3412 0.011036
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5/13/2015 8235.45 0.013262 173.9243 0.004673
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5/15/2015 8262.35 0.004628 178.285 0.008659
5/18/2015 8373.65 0.013381 179.8783 0.008897
5/19/2015 8365.65 -0.000956 177.5579 -0.012984
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5/22/2015 8458.95 0.004496 180.6054 0.014814
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5/26/2015 8339.35 -0.003699 180.2976 -0.021625
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5/28/2015 8319 -0.001873 183.3166 -0.012425
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6/1/2015 8433.4 -2.96E-05 181.1924 -0.017584
6/2/2015 8236.45 -0.023631 179.0674 -0.011797
6/3/2015 8135.1 -0.012381 172.1071 -0.039645
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6/5/2015 8114.7 -0.001964 172.3033 0.022478
6/8/2015 8044.15 -0.008732 171.297 -0.005858
6/9/2015 8022.4 -0.002707 168.5296 -0.016287
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6/17/2015 8091.55 0.005484 171.0731 0.005077
6/18/2015 8174.6 0.010212 174.903 0.02214
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6/23/2015 8381.55 0.0034 178.285 0.001568
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6/25/2015 8398 0.004434 174.9583 -0.015693
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6/30/2015 8368.5 0.006005 173.0858 0.00178
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7/2/2015 8444.9 -0.000965 173.3096 -0.012502
7/3/2015 8484.9 0.004725 172.8618 -0.002587
7/6/2015 8522.15 0.004381 172.331 -0.003076
7/7/2015 8510.8 -0.001333 170.4861 -0.010763
7/8/2015 8363.05 -0.017513 169.3682 -0.006579
7/9/2015 8328.55 -0.004134 166.9917 -0.014131
7/10/2015 8360.55 0.003835 164.3082 -0.0162
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7/15/2015 8523.8 0.008211 162.7987 0.005165
7/16/2015 8608.05 0.009836 163.0226 0.001374
7/17/2015 8609.85 0.000209 163.6935 0.004107
7/20/2015 8603.45 -0.000744 163.1627 -0.003248
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7/22/2015 8633.5 0.012125 159.2489 0.012719
7/23/2015 8589.8 -0.005075 158.6896 -0.003519
7/24/2015 8521.55 -0.007977 158.1311 -0.003526
7/27/2015 8361 -0.01902 151.7855 -0.040956
7/28/2015 8337 -0.002875 150.863 -0.006096
7/29/2015 8375.05 0.004554 150.8068 -0.000372
7/30/2015 8421.8 0.005567 151.45 0.004256
7/31/2015 8532.85 0.0131 152.4563 0.006622
8/3/2015 8543.05 0.001195 152.9872 0.003476
8/4/2015 8516.9 -0.003066 148.9066 -0.027035
8/5/2015 8567.95 0.005976 150.9469 0.013609
8/6/2015 8588.65 0.002413 151.4777 0.003511
8/7/2015 8564.6 -0.002804 158.1311 0.042986
8/10/2015 8525.6 -0.004564 153.7704 -0.027964
8/11/2015 8462.35 -0.007446 150.9745 -0.018349
8/12/2015 8349.45 -0.013431 150.5838 -0.002592
8/13/2015 8355.85 0.000766 150.8068 0.00148
8/14/2015 8518.55 0.019284 151.1708 0.00241
8/17/2015 8477.3 -0.004854 147.5925 -0.023955
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8/19/2015 8495.15 0.003372 145.6914 -0.000771
8/20/2015 8372.75 -0.014513 143.0079 -0.018591
8/21/2015 8299.95 -0.008733 143.0917 0.000586
8/24/2015 7809 -0.060973 127.2985 -0.116951
8/25/2015 7880.7 0.00914 128.948 0.012875
8/26/2015 7791.85 -0.011338 125.7052 -0.02547
8/27/2015 7948.95 0.019962 128.7518 0.023947
8/28/2015 8001.95 0.006645 136.2153 0.05635
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9/2/2015 7717 -0.008882 125.9006 -0.038764
9/3/2015 7823 0.013642 128.1094 0.017392
9/4/2015 7655.05 -0.021703 126.0968 -0.015835
9/7/2015 7558.8 -0.012653 126.7977 0.005543
9/8/2015 7688.25 0.016981 128.9576 0.01689
9/9/2015 7818.6 0.016812 129.2378 0.002171
9/10/2015 7788.1 -0.003909 127.2748 -0.015306
9/11/2015 7789.3 0.000154 128.0876 0.006366
9/14/2015 7872.25 0.010593 128.817 0.005679
9/15/2015 7829.1 -0.005496 128.5923 -0.001746
9/16/2015 7899.15 0.008908 129.2941 0.005442
9/18/2015 7981.9 0.010421 134.1742 0.037049
9/21/2015 7977.1 -0.000602 134.0337 -0.001048
9/22/2015 7812 -0.020914 131.5372 -0.018801
9/23/2015 7845.95 0.004336 132.6874 0.008706
9/24/2015 7868.5 0.00287 127.6113 -0.039007
9/28/2015 7795.7 -0.009295 126.2651 -0.010606
9/29/2015 7843.3 0.006087 126.9937 0.005754
9/30/2015 7948.9 0.013374 128.6487 0.012948
10/1/2015 7950.9 0.000252 130.3316 0.012996
10/5/2015 8119.3 0.020959 134.9028 0.034473
10/6/2015 8152.9 0.00413 138.7455 0.028086
10/7/2015 8177.4 0.003001 144.5788 0.041184
10/8/2015 8129.35 -0.005893 144.5233 -0.000384
10/9/2015 8189.7 0.007396 147.8888 0.02302
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10/14/2015 8107.9 -0.002931 143.0365 0.004321
10/15/2015 8179.5 0.008792 145.925 0.019993
10/16/2015 8238.15 0.007145 148.0849 0.014693
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10/21/2015 8251.7 -0.001205 142.1674 0.001184
10/23/2015 8295.45 0.005288 144.3264 0.015072
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10/27/2015 8232.9 -0.003353 139.0542 -0.033909
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10/29/2015 8111.75 -0.007302 140.7084 -0.003784
10/30/2015 8065.8 -0.005681 138.5208 -0.015669
11/2/2015 8050.8 -0.001861 138.7732 0.001821
11/3/2015 8060.7 0.001229 140.6243 0.01325
11/4/2015 8040.2 -0.002546 141.4101 0.005573
11/5/2015 7955.45 -0.010597 140.5965 -0.00577
11/6/2015 7954.3 -0.000145 141.045 0.003185
11/9/2015 7915.2 -0.004928 139.8393 -0.008585
11/10/2015 7783.35 -0.016798 136.4665 -0.024414
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11/16/2015 7806.6 0.005697 132.6899 0.005444
11/17/2015 7837.55 0.003957 133.9586 0.009516
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12/2/2015 7931.35 -0.002965 135.9476 0.000846
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1/5/2016 7784.65 -0.000854 139.4354 0.015835
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1/3/2019 10672.25 -0.011205 136.4829 -0.032133
1/4/2019 10727.35 0.00515 139.6458 0.02291
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1/18/2019 10906.95 0.00016 140.6522 0.011997
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1/22/2019 10922.75 -0.003573 138.3519 -0.002422
1/23/2019 10831.5 -0.008389 137.3455 -0.007301
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1/25/2019 10780.55 -0.006403 136.0995 0.002115
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1/29/2019 10652.2 -0.000877 135.189 -0.004245
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2/1/2019 10893.65 0.005772 135.9078 0.003886
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2/5/2019 10934.35 0.002023 137.0101 -0.022823
2/6/2019 11062.45 0.011647 140.6042 0.025895
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2/14/2019 10746.05 -0.007911 126.6588 -0.039323
2/15/2019 10724.4 -0.002017 129.3904 0.021337
2/18/2019 10640.95 -0.007812 131.4032 0.015436
2/19/2019 10604.35 -0.003446 133.368 0.014842
2/20/2019 10735.45 0.012287 138.0643 0.034608
2/21/2019 10789.85 0.005054 140.8438 0.019932
2/22/2019 10791.65 0.000167 142.4253 0.011166
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2/28/2019 10792.5 -0.00131 147.713 0.0405
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3/14/2019 11343.25 0.000137 150.0979 0.008644
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3/22/2019 11456.9 -0.005584 151.3897 0.003287
3/25/2019 11354.25 -0.009 157.65 0.04052
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3/27/2019 11445.05 -0.003332 160.1 0.000312
3/28/2019 11570 0.010858 155.9 -0.026584
4/1/2019 11669.15 0.008533 157.25 0.008622
4/2/2019 11713.2 0.003768 157.5 0.001589
4/3/2019 11643.95 -0.00593 155.45 -0.013101
4/4/2019 11598 -0.003954 155.25 -0.001287
4/5/2019 11665.95 0.005842 156.55 0.008339
4/8/2019 11604.5 -0.005281 158.1 0.009852
4/9/2019 11671.95 0.005796 157.55 -0.003485
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4/16/2019 11787.15 0.008246 160.45 0.025246
4/18/2019 11752.8 -0.002918 160.6 0.000934
4/22/2019 11594.45 -0.013565 157.9 -0.016955
4/23/2019 11575.95 -0.001597 163.75 0.036379
4/24/2019 11726.15 0.012892 168.65 0.029485
4/25/2019 11641.8 -0.007219 168.85 0.001185
4/26/2019 11754.65 0.009647 168.4 -0.002669
4/30/2019 11748.15 -0.000553 169.2 0.004739
5/2/2019 11724.75 -0.001994 168.9 -0.001775
5/3/2019 11712.25 -0.001067 170.25 0.007961
5/6/2019 11598.25 -0.009781 170.15 -0.000588
5/7/2019 11497.9 -0.00869 171.7 0.009068
5/8/2019 11359.45 -0.012114 168.9 -0.016442
5/9/2019 11301.8 -0.005088 169.4 0.002956
5/10/2019 11278.9 -0.002028 166.3 -0.018469
5/13/2019 11148.2 -0.011656 164.1 -0.013317
5/14/2019 11222.05 0.006603 164.15 0.000305
5/15/2019 11157 -0.005813 162.75 -0.008565
5/16/2019 11257.1 0.008932 165.95 0.019471
5/17/2019 11407.15 0.013241 167.35 0.008401
5/20/2019 11828.25 0.03625 176 0.050397
5/21/2019 11709.1 -0.010124 174.75 -0.007128
5/22/2019 11737.9 0.002457 177 0.012793
5/23/2019 11657.05 -0.006912 174.15 -0.016233
5/24/2019 11844.1 0.015919 174.4 0.001435
5/27/2019 11924.75 0.006786 173.65 -0.00431
5/28/2019 11928.75 0.000335 175.3 0.009457
5/29/2019 11861.1 -0.005687 171.55 -0.021624
5/30/2019 11945.9 0.007124 169.45 -0.012317
5/31/2019 11922.8 -0.001936 171.95 0.014646
6/3/2019 12088.55 0.013806 172.15 0.001162
6/4/2019 12021.65 -0.005549 170.6 -0.009044
6/6/2019 11843.75 -0.014909 169.4 -0.007059
6/7/2019 11870.65 0.002269 167.5 -0.011279
6/10/2019 11922.7 0.004375 164.65 -0.017161
6/11/2019 11965.6 0.003592 169.25 0.027555
6/12/2019 11906.2 -0.004977 170.85 0.009409
6/13/2019 11914.05 0.000659 168.95 -0.011183
6/14/2019 11823.3 -0.007646 169.3 0.00207
6/17/2019 11672.15 -0.012866 164.4 -0.02937
6/19/2019 11691.45 0.001652 167.35 0.017785
6/20/2019 11831.75 0.011929 172 0.027407
6/21/2019 11724.1 -0.00914 170.95 -0.006123
6/24/2019 11699.65 -0.002088 165.2 -0.034214
6/25/2019 11796.45 0.00824 166.2 0.006035
6/26/2019 11847.55 0.004322 167.55 0.00809
6/27/2019 11841.55 -0.000507 170.6 0.01804
6/28/2019 11788.85 -0.00446 167.75 -0.016847
7/1/2019 11865.6 0.006489 161 -0.04107
7/2/2019 11910.3 0.00376 165.65 0.028473
7/3/2019 11916.75 0.000541 166.3 0.003916
7/4/2019 11946.75 0.002514 167.1 0.004799
7/5/2019 11811.15 -0.011415 161.5 -0.034087
7/8/2019 11558.6 -0.021614 152.4 -0.057997
7/9/2019 11555.9 -0.000234 153.4 0.00654
7/10/2019 11498.9 -0.004945 151.65 -0.011474
7/11/2019 11582.9 0.007278 153.1 0.009516
7/12/2019 11552.5 -0.002628 149.7 -0.022458
7/15/2019 11588.35 0.003098 150.7 0.006658
7/16/2019 11662.6 0.006387 152.25 0.010233
7/17/2019 11687.5 0.002133 149.9 -0.015556
7/18/2019 11596.9 -0.007782 143.4 -0.04433
7/19/2019 11419.25 -0.015437 143.9 0.003481
7/22/2019 11346.2 -0.006418 146.65 0.01893
7/23/2019 11331.05 -0.001336 144.6 -0.014077
7/24/2019 11271.3 -0.005287 143.6 -0.00694
7/25/2019 11252.15 -0.0017 143.85 0.001739
7/26/2019 11284.3 0.002853 141.9 -0.013649
7/29/2019 11189.2 -0.008463 140.35 -0.010983
7/30/2019 11085.4 -0.00932 138.75 -0.011466
7/31/2019 11118 0.002936 138.85 0.000721
8/1/2019 10980 -0.01249 136.9 -0.014144
8/2/2019 10997.35 0.001579 134.35 -0.018802
8/5/2019 10862.6 -0.012329 131.3 -0.022964
8/6/2019 10948.25 0.007854 131.45 0.001142
8/7/2019 10855.5 -0.008508 130.5 -0.007253
8/8/2019 11032.45 0.016169 130.85 0.002678
8/9/2019 11109.65 0.006973 130.95 0.000764
8/13/2019 10925.85 -0.016683 127.75 -0.02474
8/14/2019 11029.4 0.009433 126.85 -0.00707
Regression Statistics
0.46
0.21
0.21
0.02
1218.00

df SS MS F Significance F
1.00 0.08 0.08 326.04 0.00
1216.00 0.31 0.00
1217.00 0.40

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


0.00 0.00 -1.66 0.10 0.00 0.00
0.98 0.05 18.06 0.00 0.87 1.09
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.00 0.00
0.87 1.09
Calculation of cost of equity(Ke)
Nifty value as on-
11/3/1995 1000
8/14/2019 11029.4
11/3/2018
No. of years 23.778082191781

Rm 10.62%

Rf 6.62%

Beta 0.98

Cost of equity(Ke) 10.54%


Total equity 236246.97

Calculation of cost of debt(Kd)

Total Borrowings 102,106.36


Total debt 5,836.73
Pre tax cost of debt 5.72%
Effective tax rate 34.94%
Post tax cost of debt(Kd) 3.72%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital(WACC) 8.48%


FCFF

Figures in Rs Crores FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E


EBIT 57,175.62 40,869.47 36,372.37 31,009.97
EBIT *(1-tax rate) 37,198.46 26,565.16 23,642.04 20,156.48
Non-Cash Charges 24,026.22 26,428.84 29,071.73 31,978.90
Fixed Capx 29,449.00 32,921.00 33,000.00 33,000.00
Change in WC 8,281.56 -328.43 1,560.18 1,696.93
FCFF 23,494 20,401 18,154 17,438
PV FCFF 47,891.53 18806.2739251 15425.767727 13,659.48
PV Terminal CF ₹ 316,951.45
Total PV of FCFF 388,337.09
Cash ₹ 5,103.42
Net Borrowings ₹ 102,106.36
Value of Equity 291,334.15
No of Shares in Crores 1258.03
WACC 8.48%
Value per Share (Intrinsic Value) ₹ 231.58
Current Market Price/Share 126.75
Interpretation Go Long
PV of Terminal CF in FY 22

404,637.54

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